The Duran Podcast - IRAN WAR: Conditional Ceasefire (Live)

Episode Date: April 8, 2026

IRAN WAR: Conditional Ceasefire (Live)

We are live with Alexander McCurice. Alexander, how you doing? I'm doing very well. Of course, I was out late into the night yesterday as events were playing out at bewildering speed. But anyway, here we are the following day, and we've got a few things to discuss. Let me put it like that in terms of what has been happening.

Let's jump into it. Let's jump into it, Alexander, real quick. A good taco morning from Elsa. Chunky monkey says, how much worse does it have to get before Trump and his base finally acknowledge that this is a debacle? We'll answer that question in just a second. And Raphael says, proud to be here from day one. LOL. Thank you, Raphael for that.

Thank you, Raphael. Absolutely. Okay, Alexander, a conditional ceasefire. That's how I titled this live stream. I think that's an important point to make that no one is making. I haven't seen anyone make this point yet. I was going back through some of the video archives that we did on Ukraine, where we were talking about the demand from the collective West

for an unconditional ceasefire of Russia, Russia to accept an unconditional ceasefire. In this instance, we now have a two-week conditional ceasefire. What do you think of what's happened? Well, absolutely. Absolutely. And a conditional ceasefire where the conditions have been, written by Iran. I think that's an important thing also to understand. So the Iranians return

control of the Strait of Hormuz. They say they will allow shipping to pass through, but they will continue to levy tolls. And they also say, and Trump hasn't quite accepted this, but he's come very close to doing so, that future discussions will be based on their 10-point proposal. that their temporary proposal is very, very tough for the United States. I mean, I would say unacceptable for the United States. But what the Iranians are talking about now is reparations, right to pursue unconstrained enrichment, uranium enrichment, all of those things. And the key thing to say, the point, the starting point in every. any discussion of where we are today is to reel back, look at what we were saying before the

conflict began, look at what we were saying on the day the conflict began, that for the Iranians, the survival of their political system was the key to success. If the system survived, then in effect, they would have won. The system has survived. You could argue that on point at least, they have one. And now the balance of negotiations have shifted decisively in their favour. Instead of it being about nuclear enrichment and ballistic missiles, it's now going to be about a whole lot of other things, American bases, security guarantees for Iran, all of those things. Ormoos, opening Hormuz, all of course depending on whether there's going to be negotiations, at all, which I'm not by the way, absolutely sure there will be, because for the Americans to

negotiate on this basis is very difficult. The Iranians also clearly want a different negotiator on the American side, not Whitkoff and Kushner anymore, but Vance and perhaps Rubio, and they might get them. So the Iranians have come out decisively ahead on points. Now that may not be what the president, what Donald Trump is going to tell his supporters, it may not be what his supporters wants to hear, but going back to the comment that the viewer made, absolutely, this is a debacle by any measure. The United States clearly went in,

or at least Donald Trump clearly went in seeking regime change. He said as much in his truth. social posts. He was demanding unconditional surrender at one point. We now have a massive New York Times article which tells us all the details about how Bibi Netanyahu came along with David Morair, whatever his name was the Mossad chief, how they said to Trump, they sold the story to Trump on the basis that Iran would collapse like a house of cards if it was attacked, that it was incredibly weak in all of that, then when all of the other people in the administration, except Vance, and just to make a quick point, I know people always talk about Vance and pushes back on Vance,

but I don't think it's a coincidence that this meeting on the 11th of February happened whilst Vance was away in Azerbaijan. And you have to read the New York. Times article you see how hostile to this entire operation vance always was so vance is away everybody else clearly terrified of trump who apparently loses his temper at the smallest opportunity we've now had a confirmation of that from the japanese prime minister none of them prepared to tell him mr president this is an extremely bad idea don't do what you're Netanyahu is telling you. General Kane, who is the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, clearly thought it was a very bad idea, but never could bring himself to just tell the President

this. So they all come along and say, oh well, you know, maybe we might not be able to achieve regime change, though you never know, but we can achieve all sorts of other things. We can integrate their ballistic missile capability. We can kill the Ayatollah and all of those things. So they get drawn into a conflict with Iran that none of them really believes in. And the result is they haven't received regime change. Iran now has control of the Strait of Hulmoos. It is not giving up control as a result of this agreement. It's saying, well, you know, we're going to let ships get through, but we're still going to levy tolls together with Amman. The whole assumption that Iran would run out of ballistic missiles and drones has been exposed as a fallacy by this war. Iran's relations

with its Bricks partners, China and Russia, have become stronger. And we might just, in a moment, later in the program, say something quickly about what happened in the the UN Security Council, where the Chinese and the Russians vetoed an American-backed, Bahraini proposed resolution. And the government in Iran looks stronger and more coherent now than it did before the war began. I mean, this is a debacle. There is no better word to use to describe it. Yes, it is. Zelensky has gifted 150 Duran memberships, I believe, if I'm reading everything correctly, 50, 50 to 50, so very, very much appreciated. Mr. Zelensky. Erradi and Kido says, wow, Zelensky is loaded with cash, where's my membership?

Zelensky's got a lot of cash, that's for sure. No doubt about it. Sadeghava says, hello, Duran, many thanks for informing us and keeping us sane in these crazy times. Thank you, Sadeva. Amazing, Alexander. We even have Zelensky watching us. We even have Zelensky watching us. Maybe Padolyaks also there with them. The doleaks also.

Okay. A debacle, can the U.S. be trusted? Is this a pause? Are we going to be fighting resume after a certain amount of time? There's going to be conditions that are going to be put in place as we get to some negotiation, if we get to some negotiation, let's see if we even get there. Will the conditions be adhered to? Well, that's an excellent.

How does this all play out going forward? Well, I'm going to make my own guess here, but of course with Trump, it's always difficult to say. What you now knows is that Iran is not weak. Iran is strong. Iran has survived this attack, and it's come out. united, more united than it went in. The political system in Iran is stable. They have shown that they can conduct attacks across the Middle East.

The United States has run down its munitions arsenal, and the Iranians control the Strait of Hormuz. I would have thought that the last thing Donald Trump would want in two weeks time would be to be catapulted back into this war. So I would have thought on in his own interests if for no other reason, he would want to convert this temporary ceasefire into a permanent end of hostilities. This has been a debacle for him. He thought Iran was weak, fragile and would collapse. And Iran went into the war much stronger than he realized.

and has come out stronger. So, well, it's difficult to know what is going to happen. Netanyahu is going to do everything he possibly can to disrupt the ceasefire. He is already saying that he's not going to abide by it where Lebanon is concerned. He's going to try again and use all his friends in Washington, Lindsay Graham and all the others, Mike Waltz, I suspect, within the administration, to try to hexeth as well. to try to get this thing restarted. But, well, I would like to believe, but I cannot be sure that Donald Trump will understand

that this isn't working and cannot work and will now walk away, pretend that he's won when he's actually lost, and bring this whole thing to a stop. And then just possibly, we might see a way back between the United States and Iran, at least way back towards some kind of coexistence. And, well, the Gulf states have a lot of rethinking to do.

Going back to the New York Times article, it says that Ratcliffe and Rubio, when they heard Netanyahu's briefing about how easy it would be to collapse Iran, Ratcliffe told Trump that all of the scenarios presented by, by Netanyahu were farcical. And Rubio said that it's all bullshit. But it wasn't a very strong pushback on Netanyahu, according to the New York Times. The strongest pushback, and this is coming from the New York Times,

was Vance. He was the strongest opponent of the war. That's a direct quote. The New York Times article also says that Trump pretty much made the decision to go to war based on his gut. based on his instinct. That's what it says.

And it also says that he was convinced that it was going to be very much like Venezuela. Yes. Like everything that happened in Venezuela, he was very much emboldened and very hyped up about what he had accomplished in Venezuela and he thought that it was going to be the same as in Iran as it was in Venezuela.

So the New York Times article also says that. as well. And they never believed that Trump, and one more thing, they never believed that Trump never believed that the Strait of Hormuz would be closed. He actually believed that the government would collapse before they even got around

and even thinking about Hormuz. Because B.B. and Moss had told him so. Yeah, yeah. And he's got also. Well, now he should know that he shouldn't trust his gut on these matters. A president should know. act on that basis. He should certainly not trust Bibi Netanyahu, who is the leader of another

country with a completely different set of interests from Trump's own and from those of the United States. And he should listen instead, the one member of the administration who has been consistently right about this matter, which is J.D. Vance. And by the way, he should stop saying root things about Tucker Carlson and other people like that who will write about this also. Now, whether he will do that, I simply don't know. He's got this extraordinary sentiment towards Netanyahu, which I don't understand. I don't know why people have this. But he really needs to start listening to the people who tell him what is really going to happen.

And stop, as I said, listening to someone like Netanyahu. And I just want to also say something. I mean, Radcliffe, Kane and Rubio have betrayed their president and the United States also. Is they all three of them thought that this was all a mistake, that it was farcical, that it was BS, that it couldn't achieve the objectives, that. Netanyahu said they should have told Trump, Mr. President, this is a very bad idea. We've carried out our own assessments. This isn't going to work in the way that Netanyahu says. We can foresee all of these problems. We can foresee the probability that the Strait of Hormuz will be closed. and we strongly advise against this operation.

And if the president, of course, disregarded their advice, well, that's his prerogative. But at that point, they should have said, we don't agree, and they should have resigned. Of course, none of them had the courage to do that. The New York Times article also sets up Hegseth to take the fall. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth was the most enthusiastic

we're going to have to take care of the Iranians eventually, Heg Seth said, so we might as well do it now. So no doubt about it, Hexeth is being set up to take the fall. This was leaked from someone inside the Trump administration that was at the meetings that knew what was going on. There's no doubt about it because the article is very detailed in its description of events, Netanyahu, in the situation room where people were sitting,

very, very detailed. It reminds me of the New York Times article, which talked about the NATO U.S. command center in Germany, which broke it all down, a gigantic article, which went through everything about how the U.S. was running the war in Ukraine, very detailed article with all the names, all the people. This article is very reminiscent of that article. So obviously they have one or a few people who were at these meetings

who want to give the real information. as to what happened to get Trump to go into this war with Iran. And it really paints a bad picture for Trump. It really paints a terrible picture for Trump. And it also shows how there's so many people who are worried about their jobs. It shows people like Rubio who doesn't want to go against Trump, but is not trying to distance himself from Trump. It shows Susie Wiles in the article who's also thinking about the midterms now,

and she's trying to distance herself from the Iran War. Basically, as the war dragged along, even Trump's own administration understood that things were not going well. Absolutely. Except for Hexeth. He's going to take the fall. He's going to be the first one. Absolutely. Absolutely.

Now, I think a very simple point that needs to be made. has been made by us in many places, in an alliance, and the United States and Israel are in an alliance. It's not a situation where the ally tells you what you, tells you the United States what you should do, and you just go ahead and do it. That can never work that way. If you want a model of how an alliance properly works, go to the alliance between Britain and the United States during the Second World War. Churchill, enormously clever man, as we all know, very eloquent, very influential. He was constantly trying to get the Americans to do all sorts of things, which were in British interests, but which were of no interest to the US. He was trying to get the Americans, for example, to focus

on the Mediterranean and give up on the idea of a landing in France. And the Americans just told to get lost. They decided, and that is how this should work. You cannot have your allies running your foreign policy in this way, be there the Israelis, the Ukrainians, the British, or whoever. Okay, so we have the 10-point plan from Iran. That's going to be the basis of everything going forward. What can what can Iran concede? What can the United States realistically concede as we go forward? Well, I presume that if we want this to stick. Let's say we want this to stick. Yes. I mean, I think personally that these set of demands that Iran is making, the 10 points are of a sort that it is impossible for the United States to concede, at least to concede publicly.

My own personal view is that the best thing that can happen, the best thing that we can look for is that just is that the United States now walks away. They tried this war. The government, the political system in Iran survived. They can perhaps talk a bit about the strait of foremost. but the Iranians have an interest in allowing shipping to go through the strait of hormones. They do not want a resumption of the war either, I would assume. So the Americans and the Iranians just walk away, and this ceasefire as it is simply becomes,

in effect, indefinite. And there is an advantage to each side on that, because formerly the United States concedes nothing. for Iran they survived they've deepened their alliances and they're in control of the straight of formans

they're not going to allow that to happen I mean the United States Israel are not going to allow that to happen are they they're going to come back again after a certain period of time maybe it's going to be in one week maybe it'll be in one month maybe it'll be in one year but eventually

eventually yeah start up again that that is the other thing that Iran it has to understand that this isn't over. I always thought that the Iranian demand that the Americans pull out all their bases from the Middle East all of that was over-ambitious. They haven't been able to achieve that in this conflict.

So what they must now do is they must strengthen themselves even more. And I know there are some people who push back, only against that. We may be hearing from some of them today. But one of the ways they need to do that is by deepening their alliances. I mean, we can put ourselves, Iran can get itself into a position where it becomes impossible to attack Iran again to repeat this kind of operation. And, well, some will say going for nuclear weapons is the way. I don't want to see that happen. The alternative is to deepen Iran's alliances, which are there. We've seen that they work.

They can be taken forward. As far as the U.S. basis, one of the demands is for the U.S. to pull out of the region. that's not going to happen, but you could make the argument that the U.S. presence has definitely been weakened or at a minimum the perception that the U.S. can protect those countries and those bases has been shattered. Even if the U.S. state and the region, the perception that they provide this security umbrella, that's been completely demolished. It's been absolutely demolished.

And, of course, if Iran retains control. of the Strait of Hormuz, as it is now doing, then that is even worse from the perspective of the Gulf states. Iran has emerged the conclusive victor out of all of this. And of course, the Saudis, the Qataris, the UAE will no doubt go on an arms-buying spree to counter Iran and all of that. But they've engaged in arms buying sprees many times in the past. And we see that in conventional terms, they're not in a position to take on the Iranians. So the Gulf states undoubtedly now are going to have to face the reality that this American security guarantee that they all assumed that they were living under, which enabled them to prosper, to build up Dubai and all of that,

that that American guarantee is in practical terms worthless. If there is a conflict with Iran, it is Iran that dominates the local geography. This affair is going to result in a severe weakening of American prestige in the Middle East. The Gulf states are going to do exactly what the Europeans are doing. They're going to start buying weapons and they're going to start arming up. Yes, absolutely. And they're going to buy them from the Americans and perhaps from the Chinese and even conceivably from the Russians, by the way. But it doesn't check.

Well, I know. They're going to say what the Europeans are saying, though. The excuse is going to be, well, you know, the U.S. is not there with us or they're abandoning us or they can't protect us, whatever. They're going to say pretty much the same thing that the Europeans are saying. And this is why we need to take security into our own hands. And we're going to allocate more of our budget, to webbeats. and to the MIC. It's going to be a copy paste of what the Europeans are you probably right. The other thing they might do, and this is a real possibility, they might decide to go nuclear themselves.

Saudi Arabia is a possibility? It is a possibility. It is not to be excluded at all, unfortunately. Wouldn't that lead, though, to Iran get it going nuclear right away as well? If Saudi Arabia would, and Turkey? Turkey would absolutely then. Absolutely, absolutely. But Whereas what these states ought to do is to rethink their relationship with Iran, I don't think they will. That's the trouble. Final point to make before we go to questions, Trump and the Associated Press,

they mentioned that China played a part in getting around to agree to the ceasefire. What do you think? I think that is true. And I think Pakistanis were clearly coordinating very closely with China. By the way, Arachshy also spoke to Lavrov over the weekend as well. So I think that on the one hand, the Americans had to make significant concessions, leave the Iranians in control of the Strait of Hormuz, agree to work on the basis of Iran's 10-point plan.

but the Iranians also had to be persuaded to agree to something, which is a lot less than the total victory that they were working towards. And exactly as we've discussed in many programs, and as we discussed in our program with Mirzheimer on Monday, at some point the Chinese and the Russians both came in, definitely the Chinese. guessing the Russians. I think the Russians are the Chinese work together. And they said to Iran, look, we are where we are. You've achieved an awful lot. This is the point where you cash in what you

won and you stop. You cash in whilst you're ahead. If you continue with this, you will get yourself into an indefinite war, which is going to be bad for you. And I'll Ultimately, that is not what we want to see, and we want you to stop. And given that they are ultimately Iran's allies, Iran would have had to listen to that, because Iran cannot afford to find itself in an open-ended confrontation with the United States, without China and Russia behind them. The sign that things were starting to move in the diplomatic front, I was watching it all night long, I was following it all night long,

was when in the Security Council, the Chinese and the Russians vetoed the Bahraini resolution, which, to be very clear, is an American resolution. The Americans, as the Western powers regularly did, they got one of their allies to put it forward. But it was clearly an American resolution, even though it had been made massively watered down so that there was no provision in it for military action. And I said to myself, at the time, this looks like a quid pro quo, that the Russians and the Chinese have told the Iranians, we're going to veto this resolution. but in return, we wanted to start showing some diplomatic movement. That is how diplomacy works. Yeah.

All right. Elza says Iran turned a regional conflict into a global one. Why didn't Russia do the same and would it have helped them in any way? I don't think it would have helped them in any way. I think what it would have done is make everybody around the world see Russia as an unreliable, as an unreliable partner. The Russians entered into the conflict with Ukraine in a much, much more difficult position. And I think people always need to remember this, because however you package it,

however hard you explain it, it was the Russians who sent their troops into Ukraine, who violated, if you like, Ukraine's territorial borders, each sovereignty. and that is something which is very difficult to justify internationally, to put it mildly. Whereas Iran was in a much stronger moral, legal and political position, because it was unequivocal that it had been attacked, and it had been attacked at a time when it was negotiating in good faith. So Iran has political space to do things which, if Russia had done them in 2022, would much more likely have united the global community against it. Chris, Christend Balek says,

What languages do you speak, read and write? Listening to you both is essential to me, best to both of you. I speak English. Obviously, Greek. I used to be fluent in French. I no longer am, but I can read French without any significant difficulty. Because I also studied Latin at school and together with French. I can usually get through Italian and Spanish reasonably well,

though I don't pretend that I know those languages. And Russian, well, I rely on my wife who speaks in. Excellent. English, Greek, Spanish, and conversational Russian. So that's where I am. Zelensky gifted another 50 Duran memberships. Well, he's a very generous.

Very generous. Thank you, Zelensky, for that. Hashem Gambit says, if Iran gets all 10 points, are they a superpower? Yes. Yes. They're not going to get all those 10 points. I think that this is, this is, I mean, I'm not saying that the 10 points in themselves are wrong.

I mean, you could argue that morally, Iran is entitled to all of them. But in the real world, the United States is never going to conceive them. Just the point that you made, which is a good point, just the fact that the conditional ceasefire is based on those 10. points says enough even if none of those points are are conceded the horoose one is reality so whether the US concedes or not

Iran has Hormuz that's just a reality everything else even if the US walks away and they just leave it as it is which is not going to happen but even if they did just the fact that the ceasefire is premised on those 10 conditions

is saying a lot absolutely infinite infinite dream says good day gentlemen Mads and all. Good day. Ralph Steiner says shout out to the Iranian forces Semperfi. Thank you for that. So Lenski says... Before we... There's just one very, very important thing to say, which is that the reason we are where we are is because clearly there's been an analysis within the United States of all the

various military options, Harg Island, the islands in the strait in the strait of Hormuz, the seizing of the enriched uranium. in Isfahan. And clearly what's happened is that the assessment has been, none of this is going to work. The risks are far too high. Even General Kane has been almost certainly telling Donald Trump this. So one of the reasons we are where we are is because at some point, probably over the Easter weekend, maybe after the Isfahan debacle, which we have discussed.

in many programs. Trump realized that he was out of military options. Why is he out of military options? Because of the resistance put up by Iran. That is the most important fact about this war, and it should not be overlooked. No, if what happened in Isfahan was the extraction of the uranium, say that really was what was going on in Isfahan,

then we did have boots on the ground. have the US military engaging with the Iranian forces. And it didn't work out well. And maybe that was that was what has led the United States or Trump to say, okay, well, the only option left is nuclear. And we all know that what that would mean. And so, you know, we got to the ceasefire. Exactly. So we should, we should underestimate what happened in his fahad a couple of days ago.

We should not really say that might have played a big part. We shouldn't underestimate what happened in Isfahan, and we shouldn't underestimate what the Iranians have achieved. Yeah. Zolensky says thank you for your honest media. Thank you, Zelensky, for that generous super chat. AZ, Mary says, news are good, but it is impossible to unsee terrible threats

to destroy 3,000-year-old civilization. I completely agree. I mean, that statement, which should never have been made, will be remembered. It will mark Trump's presidency forever. In the hours afterwards, there was speculation all over the media here in Britain and on the far to some people in the U.S., that he was preparing to use nuclear weapons. Martin Middle says, didn't Trump set out to bring the troops home, close the bases,

collapse and reset the empire, and restrain Israel. Did Trump succeed after all? Well, no, in my opinion. I mean, he could have done all of those things. He didn't need to orchestrate a debacle like this in order to do them. Ralph Steiner says, are there Yankee boys finally going to go home? Well, if this situation stabilizes, given that the basis had been exposed as strategic liabilities rather than assets, perhaps in time they will go home. But there will still be

enormous opposition in the US to doing that. And one should never underestimate it. Stephen says going from civilization, Eurasia rhetoric to ceasefire is insane. Is this just an operational pause to allow for preparations for the next round? Well, if the Iranians sit on their hands, yes. If the Iranians don't take advantage of this win, that they're that they have achieved and consolidated, and that means strengthening their military position even further, then it is highly likely that we will see a renewed round.

I am not as certain of it as I was after the 12-day war in June, because it was clear to me that after the 12-day war, the United States and Israel would come back. This time, it has been a much bigger debacle, and I think that Trump will be very nervous, much more nervous, this time of doing it. But Netanyahu is still there.

Hegs, at the moment, is still there. Probably not for very long. Others are still there. Lindsay Graham is still there. The Iranians aren't very careful. It could be just another pause before a renewed, a renewed attack. Zelensky, another 50 Iran memberships. Thank you, Zelensky for that. Haki Koli says, should Iran have let the deadline expire, U.S. overreacti, action will have further destroyed the legitimacy and shown their military to be impotent, easy for me to say when I'm not being bombed.

Well, indeed, absolutely. We must never forget that. I mean, I know all sorts of people. There are some people who actually feel let down because they think that Iran should have continued fighting, even as its bridges and power stations are destroyed. One should never, ever ask another country to sacrifice itself in that kind of way when it is given an option that would, if take and put it in a position of advantage. Althea says, happy taco morning. I think the ceasefire is mostly over the U.S. running out of interceptors. For that, undoubtedly, yes, played a role too.

Gio Stone says Trump stated, Jared and Whitkoff stated the deal of no nuclear and no missiles as of two hours ago will be a part of the deal for negotiations. Yeah, I mean, the Iranians are saying something completely. different. And Trump himself has admitted that it is the 10-day boy plan. Trump is going to say all kinds of things. And for the next few days, the key thing is the Iranians are still there, and they now control the strait of hormones. Double triple down says, when the enemy is driven back, we have failed. When he has cut off and circled and dispersed, we have succeeded.

Suvorov merely driven back is temporary. Well, yes, but as I said, this is, This isn't that kind of the kind of battle in the Napoleonic wars that Suvorov was fighting. Suvorov was not in charge of Russian policy. The Tsar was, and it was he who made the political decisions. Sisi Karayani, thank you for a super sticker. Niko says, I thought I was going to wake up to a nuclear strike in Iran. For once I was wrong, congratulations to the Iranian people. I'm glad they are safe.

Yeah. It's a good point. Thank you for saying that. Thank you. Thanks for that. Rafael says one thing I'm seeing now more and more are people are talking openly about dividing the USA in 13 independent countries after returning a big part of Mexico and Canada. People feel the end is near. Well, I still don't want to see that. Let's focus on the situation with Iran today. Because if that kind of event happens and plays out, well, that will be in the future. We have to deal with the situation now. Flying Boar says Brian Berlittick said in his channel as part of your strategy. Iran should not accept it the ceasefire. It's all in the Rand paper from 2009.

Yes, I'm aware of Brian's point and I can see the point that he is making. But again, you have to be in Tehran. You have to make that decision. You know you're being bombed. You know the Pakistan has wanted to stop. stop. You know your Chinese and Russian allies want you to stop. And you come out of this ahead on points with the Straits of Hormuz under your control. I think that Iran was right to take the deal. It has emerged stronger out of it. The Haki Goli says, to clarify my earlier point, it feels

like pulling the knockout blow when your opponent finally is on the ropes. Well, when your opponent is the United States, be very careful before you say that. I mean, can I just make, again, a historical, I'm not saying that things are going to play out in exactly the same way. But exactly, I remember it, exactly the same argument was made about the deal of the North Vietnamese negotiated with the Americans in Paris in 1972, 73. that the North Vietnamese were going to win so why did they do the deal with the Americans that they did? Well, they did do the deal. And in fact, what happened as a result of that deal

was that a few years later, they won and they won completely. Sometimes accepting a compromise is the way towards achieving ultimate final success. I think this is closer to that. situation, the Vietnam situation, then the knockout blow that people have been talking about. Uzer 76 says, is this ceasefire a win for Trump or did his reputation suffer irreparable damage? A lot of people are unhappy over Trump's Easter post on truth social. You tell me, you're telling me, I'm very unhappy about it.

I'm not the only one, obviously. I think his reputation has been damaged. I think that across the political system, within his own party, amongst a significant section of his political base, he's come out worse. Double-triple-down says it's good. Mike Tyson didn't bite anyone when defeated. Ralph Steiner says, will the Yanks beat the S out of the Cubans now? Well, who knows? They'll go after Cuba.

I'll go after Cuba. I mean, you know, I'll tell you something else. I'm thinking about this. I'm going to know, given that Iran didn't work. out that well. Now they have to prove themselves. So they'll go off to Cuba, just say. Blop-Bzub says, Alexander, you said that China and Russia will not want a totally victorious and more powerful Iran. I get the real politic, but they would also benefit from a strong ally. How will they balance this? They will have to balance this. The Russians and the Chinese are very good

at balancing things of that kind. One thing they will absolutely not want to see is a nuclear Iran. Just so. Nico says this is not the end of the war. As we speak, Benjamin Netanyahu is tearing Lebanon apart. He has truly become one of the worst people in history. I have to say, agree. The Lebanon, if you want me to say where I think the danger of this escalating to the point that the war resumes is if this war in Lebanon continues. Because bear in mind, bear in mind, what probably Netanyahu's calculation,

is that if he goes on hammering Hezbollah, Iran will have to come to Hezbollah's help, and that will restart the war all over again. Marty Murphy, thank you for that super chat. Tectonic culture says Iran just fell for the Hasbara again, pathetic. No, I don't agree. I mean, I've explained my views here. I don't think one should ever call a significant partial, victory and defeat. I mean, that is

a mistake. Zabinator says AG is making a big move $5.5 per ounce so far and the LBMA isn't even open yet. Thank you for that. Ralph Steiner says Trump said he's going to invade Iceland

at Davos. And Ralph says where will... As a matter of fact, the word there was talk of doing that. Ralph says where will the Yankees psycho lash out in anger now? Well, one of the places they're probably going to lash out at are the Europeans. We discussed this with the program we did with Mears Heimann.

The Americans, and I don't think it's just Trump, are very, very angry with the Europeans now. They feel very let down by them. And I think this will intensify. We talked about Cuba. I would not be surprised if we start hearing the Greenland business revival. now. Derek Domino says, I don't buy the New York Times portrayal a van strongly opposing the war.

I think they're just trying to salvage Peter Thiel's messenger boy's reputation. Well, I don't agree. I mean, the New York Times doesn't even like bands. So I can't see why that would be the case. Hoover, the Fudd killer says, who will use the arms EU neocons will try to make? Well, good question. We'll just have to see.

Going to go to Ukraine is where they're going to go. Well, yeah. Raphael says, if they can, but I mean, they need to restock their own arsenals first. One would assume. Raphael says sooner or later, China needs to understand that not every slave wanted to be emancipated. Russia is one of them. China has to find a new partner soon. I'm not sure what do you mean by this, exactly.

I mean, China and Russia have worked together very, very closely. Russia isn't anybody slow. just that. Denses with voles. I think you've had a super sticker. Iranian kiddo says Trump acting like the Cometrists, the 80 years old Diadoko in Faso

refused to retire and even killed his own son out of paranoia which led to being abandoned by his allies and the final destruction of his empire by Seleuius. Absolutely Simakos. You're absolutely correct. You are very well informed

and you know about the wars of the which very few people do, by the way. Very few people are interested in. But anyway, you're completely right. And the comparison is apt, just saying. Nico says, is it fair to say that Russia failed to capitalize on the oil? Oost Luga, Novo-Rosisk, and many refineries are destroyed. How Ukraine has so many drones.

We have actual data from now. All of those refineries are back in operation. And the ports have been, again, exporting oil. I've already discussed why the Russians were not happy about the straight-of-form moves closure and the surge in the oil price. For them, it posed significant problems. They do not want to see a global depression or anything like that happen. And there's been a meeting in which Putin said as much.

Jeffrey Brown says, Alexander, you and me, by your own testimony, and by my long experience in criminal justice and military adjacent information activities have met thousands of Netanyahu types. Trump just never had your legal and my slightly more exotic training and experience. He was simply seduced by a pathological manipulator. Yes, I'm afraid you're absolutely right. I hope he's learned his lesson. He hasn't. S. Scooby says, is it possible for Iran to scramble for a security pact with the Chinese during this time?

the USA is just re-arming and won't stop. My own understanding is that Iran has already been offered security acts and has rejected them. Again, there's a really good article by Cotelia the Contemplator on his substact blog, in which he points out how important the issue of independence is for Iran. So they're very, very wary of entering into long-term security relationships with other countries. And, you know, one should respect that. What I would say is that they do nonetheless need to work with their allies more closely and to build up their forces. As to a security relationship with the kind that you describe, I doubt that Iran would accept it from either the

Chinese or the Russians. The Russians have offered it. I don't believe the Chinese ever would. Just to say. Ralph Steiner says, Will the loan star state Israel agree to peace? No. Not whilst Netanyahu is Prime Minister. La Señora Shamanik says, Did you all know that McDonald's has a Diddy meal?

No, I didn't. I did go to McDonald's, so, you know. It met her. Lika says is the end of the petrodollah. Ketra Yuan coming incoming. Yeah, I think so, but one shouldn't overstate the significance of what's happening in the Strait of Hormuz. The fact that the Iranians are taking payments in Chinese currency instead of dollars for the ships that pass through. Well, they have to because they're not able to use the dollar themselves.

But I don't think that those transactions in and of themselves are sufficient to undermine the trade, the position of the dollar. Much more important is the far bigger trade between China and Russia, just to say, which is now outside the dollar entirely apparently. And of course, if Iran becomes integrated in that system, then it will matter. But, you know, it's important to maintain a sense of proportion in these things. As Scooby says, if every nation has a nuke, does it make war less likely? Does it make the use of nukes less likely? I've heard that argument since the 1970s. I don't buy it.

Just a second. From Zelensky, another 50 memberships. Thank you, Zelensky, one. Internet veteran says, if this works, the probability of Russia negotiating a conclusion to the Ukraine with U.S. is much higher. Trump will likely view any Ukraine concessions as more acceptable than those pursued with Iran. Well, we'll see. But I don't think so myself, if I have to be honest. from

one second Ralph if it wasn't for the damn French and the American War of Independence Americans would now still be speaking and writing English well we in Britain if that had happened we would not be an independent country we would be a small island with the centre of power in Washington

just saying Because that's the reality of it. Okay, from Nikos, how can Russia deal with the drones, even conquering all of Ukraine won't stop the strikes? It's a problem that makes people demand a strike on Europe. Well, can I just say, I am confident that the Russians will eventually, drones, drone warfare has gone through its peak period over the last few years. from this point onwards, people will find answers, solutions to them. I believe that they're already coming. And if you're talking about these drones, let me repeat again a point.

I made a program after program. Zelensky talks up their importance. The media in the West does too. My understanding, and it's now been corroborated by the effects on the drones on the refineries and the ports, is that these drones don't do. very much damage. Will Carr super chat in in Greek? Kind of Greek. Well, let me let me translate this for you. To live to live justly, Psyhohan, Alba, Liza, Argeon,

to live justly in the world where truth begins courage also honors nature and the law and renders the law this sounds like a quote from someone just to say i i'm not sure who but it does sound like a quote it's probably from someone yeah from elza olensky spends A golden toilet on superchats. Flight of arrow says the hand of the traitor strikes with power of a legion, Israel. Yeah, true. No. Gio Stone says Iran having multiple nuclear weapons gives peace nothing less.

Israel will not stop when they were celebrating the nuclear strike and will cause a Holocaust on Iran on Israel TV last few days. There will be lots of people in Iran. more people now than at any time who will say that the only ultimate security Iran can achieve is by becoming a nuclear weapon state. I understand the argument and it may prevail. But I repeat again, as somebody who thinks that nuclear proliferation is potentially a disaster. I do not want to see it happen. I would like to see another way whereby Iran could become secure, and I believe it exists. Zach Boyle says there is somewhat of last-minute Bilderberg meeting arranged for this weekend

in D.C. once I'd heard, I thought Trump would end. Trump's end. C.I.V. would be postponed. Well, you were right. Flying Boar says, I have my doubts on that idiot Iranian president Pezeshkyan he may make a bad deal. Well, I don't think he has any role in the negotiations. I mean, it's quite clear now that the people who

are running things in Iran are much, much tough and stronger-minded people than he is. I think he's been silent. For the record, I've been reading his various statements. He's been a complete team player throughout this war. He's not said anything.

Yes, yes. To be fair to him, yes. Yeah. You're right, Alexander. I think it's supported to point out that he's been a very good player in all of this for the Iran side. Mr. Turpin says member six months, Iran has more PhDs per capita than any other country in the world. They are not dumb, just saying thank you for being a member for six months. They're not dumb at all. They're very clever. They're and they have a very, very strong technical cater as well. Many engineers, many people who understand technology. If we're talking about rebuilding their infrastructure, people will be astonished to see how fast it's done. Ralph Steiner says, will the next U.S. election deliver another John McCain?

Possibly. Ethan Seville says if Gonzalo Lira saw the things happening now. Well, all I can say is I'm missing. Iranian, Kido, says Iranian people didn't die in vain, whether they like it or not. the people are going to be compensated one way or another for these terrorist acts. They unleashed upon Iran. And yes, they lost. Oromos.

Wars have consequences. Yes, they do. Absolutely. They do have consequences. I agree with what you say. Salami. Mullah says, could this be a Houthi moment? The U.S.

out war goes on. Well, we'll see. The Houthis have never, have only, only very, only a short time ago entered the lists in this. So they still haven't used all their power. We'll see what they do. RLBBI just there says Israel saying Lebanon not part of the deal. Iran says it is.

How will this pan out if Israel keeps attacking Lebanon? Well, this is the point. What will happen is that there will be increasing pressure on Iran to support Hezbollah. And what one would presume would happen is that the Iranians, or not directly the Iranians, they're in the mean to media as the Pakistanis and the others, would try to get the Americans to understand this. And since the Americans want the ceasefire to hold, they would try to get the Americans to agree to tell Netanyahu to stop. What Netanyahu is trying to do is restart the war.

Mr. Black says, Alexander is mistaken. We are creating a situation to remove our direct conflict while, armed insurgencies begin after China has a commitment like in Syria. I'm not sure. A situation like what happened in Syria, I think. What in Iran? Iran is a- Make those conditions kind of.

Iran is what Mr. Black is saying. Yeah, Iran is a completely different country and society from Syria. It's much richer, far better educated. The government is far stronger of control. I don't think that kind of operation is. is reproducible. Phone off, Alex says two week to regroup to continue aggressive attacks. Well, two weeks to regroup and then what, I mean, they've already lost a lot of their

missiles and drones and all of the, sorry, their missile inventory. Yes, they can attack again. But all that would happen if that were to be the case is that they would make many people angry. And we would very quickly find out. ourselves back in the same prices that we're in today. The Haki Goli says, hope you're right, as I wanted to end. Just fear it's a pause used to rearm given previous deceptions. Not to mention Israel, thanks for the analysis. They cannot rearm in two weeks.

I mean, that is physically impossible. I mean, it can't be done in two weeks' time. If you're talking about six months to a year, well, they can rearm to a certain degree. It'll take them a long time to restock their arsenals fully. But long term, if there is no diplomatic resolution, which is unlikely, definitely if Iran threads water, there will be a renewed attack again. What Iran needs to do is to strengthen itself further so that it becomes impossible eventually for an attack against it to take place. because it is obvious it won't succeed. G-Dog, thanks for that super chat.

Paul Bhoist, as Alex knows here in the UK, probably make it a Trump win. The media hates Iran here. Oh, I know they do. Absolutely, no question about it. Some hate Trump as well. I think it will depend a lot on the media outlets, by the way. The BBC, the tabloids will go do exactly what you said.

The financial times will be more nuanced, as will the Guardian be. Nico says, I don't know how you feel about commies, but I introduced your channel to my cousin and the communist community here in Greece hope it brings more subs. Thank you for that. Jamila says Trump's do a deal. If Netanyahu does not want one, what's next? Well, this is the problem. I think that what should happen is that Trump picks up the phone and tells Netanyahu enough, stop. He could do it at any tone, by the way.

Whether he will find the courage to do that is another thing. But if that doesn't happen, then the risk of this all breaking down and the war resuming becomes very great. In fact, it becomes even greater. Dan Walda says, I called my congressman yesterday and respectfully told him our president needs to be taken away in a straight jacket. Nico says, when I finish, I very much like you to give me your thoughts on my 20 worst people, whoever lived list. I've done a lot of research on this. Well, I will look at it and I will let you know. Thank you, Nico, for that.

Elza says future history students will have a hard time to prepare for a test on the events of March 26. My advice, my advice, they should listen to the Duran. Thank you. Seedog says, how many times has Russia and Iran been duped by the same scam? Well, I don't think they've been duped. I think the Iranians are perfectly well, the sort of people that they are. are that they're up against. I don't think they've made any fundamental concessions. And they've come out of this stronger. So I think given the conjunction of events, given the fact that they

have the Pakistanis, Chinese, probably the Russians, telling them this is the moment to stop. I think they did the right thing. They made the correct decision. Carol Small, thank you for that super chat. Edward says EU, Australia, Japan and Korea, are weak and unwilling, unable to tell the U.S. the destructive nature of its foreign policy and chart independent foreign policies of their own? The shocking state of Western leadership is appalling. And also the shocking weakness of the people within the administration

who weren't prepared to tell the president the truth is also shocking as well. I mean, the person for me, by the way, who comes out worst from the New York Times article is General Kane. I mean, what kind of a soldier is it who isn't prepared to give a straight statement of opinion to his commander-in-chief? Flip-blop-Zoop says the PM of Pakistan got his tweet from the US. The edit history on X shows this. Well, I'm sure there was an awful lot of things going to. backwards and forwards. I don't think that in itself, by the way, tells us very much.

Hoover, Hoover the Fudd killer says, why does anyone care about the US Iran stopping, shutting at each other? The problem is Israel. I think Iran has to make it an invalid state. We can't, we can't separate the United States from this. Israel is only powerful because it has the alliance with the United States. So the United States is, absolutely a seminal part of this conflict. Ralph Steiner says was the Persians' ongoing psychological assessment of Orange Caligula, one of the historical master strokes in this battle of wits and nerves? Well, yes, absolutely.

I mean, I think the Iranians worked fine. I mean, the Iranians have also made many mistakes leading up to this war. but basically they seem to have grasped his personality very well and one area where they have excelled if I may say is in the information space

Sticky Mark says it's up to international law and prosecution of it to the job it was created for now it's time thanks lads all here happy Easter Nana Weirdo in Yorkshire UK thank you that's sticky marks technocratic tyranny news

welcome to the direct community Chunky monkey says I work in green tech and we're now more incentivized than ever to push the science forward what happens if we succeed and the EU abandons the petra dollar well indeed quite major problems with the United States

will we succeed are we capable of succeeding in the EU is another question but um again carry on double triple down says is Is this the setback that will turn the campaign around, like the defeat of King Porias sent the Greek scattering and ending expansion? Start theodoki.

Well, we'll see. Maybe. I don't think so. I mean, you're always happy to deal with people like Lindsay Graham, for example, who, I mean, he will be very, very angry today, by the way. Idiocracies says love from fascist Australia. where criticizing Israel or supporting Palestine is now effectively illegal and politicians spew anti-Iranian propaganda. Yeah. Not very different here, by the way.

Flying Bors says Greece has lots of connections with Iranian civilization, doesn't it? It certainly does. Absolutely does. Dahlia's 1978 says, given the vulnerabilities the U.S. military has shown during the conflict, do you think it will embolden China to take action against Taiwan

or indeed the Russians against European provocations? I don't think so. I think the Chinese and the Russians, obviously they're very aware of all of this, but they will buy their time. They will say to themselves that the most important thing is to sort out their base and build up their force.

Taiwan is in. The Taiwan party leader is in China, actually, now. Exactly, absolutely, exactly. So they want to deal with China. They want to deal with China, exactly. Sanjava says what's going to happen to the Gulf countries? Well, I think we discussed it. We'll see what they do.

Probably what Alex said there will. do what the Europeans do, try and buy even more weapons, maybe go nuclear. What they should do is talk to Iran. Gio Stone says, how do you think we came, how close do you think we came to a nuclear strike? I don't think we did, actually. I think that maybe Trump thought about it for a few microseconds, as he wrote that, truth social post. But I don't think that there was an actual decision or anything close to that to undertaking

nuclear strike. And I think if there had been, if Trump had said we should do it, I think he would have faced a wall of opposition. Flying Boers says, if I'm Iran, I should buy S-400s. Absolutely, yes, I agree. Imeta Lika says, as a Brazilian, I thank Iran for teaching a humility lesson to the USA. That's for all the crap the USA did in Latin America during all these years. Well, can I just say again? I thank you for making the point. The Iranians, have shown determined resistance and given the lopsided imbalance of power between them and the United States, they've come up very well.

Well, Carr says it's the full translation. It's the fourth century ethic. To live justly is to align with the cosmos where truth rules, courage, acts, and honor renders back to nature and law. What is due? Interesting. Thanks. Thank you. I wonder who's quote it was, though.

Ralph Steiner says, the prerequisites of any good military campaign is that under no circumstances should the enemy possess firearms, Captain Edmund Blackadder. Iranian Kido says, interesting how the adocos were all related to consolidate power.

Lissima is his third wife, who encouraged him to kill his son, was Ptolemy's daughter. Selukius was assassinated by Ptolemy's son shortly after he defeated Missy Max. Well, there were all a very close-knit group of people who, of course, many of them, had originally been Alexander's generals.

Just to say, so, I mean, you know, they'd all been friends at one time. Gio Sto says, thank you, Alexander, for everything you do. Elliot TZP says, I think this whole ceasefire was a trick, so Israel can focus on Lebanon and then move on to Iran. No, I don't think it was a trick. I think that what it was, what was was, was a crisis for the U.S. in terms of depletion of arsenals,

exploding, surging oil prices, all of those things. So I think that it was what they were forced to do, not what they wanted to do. San Jeva says a midterm sweep by Democrats will wipe Trump's legacy as well to the dustbin. Agreed. Very true. Patrick says Iran seems to be more of a. a rational actor than the rest of the Persian Gulf states. As an American, I want out of the Middle East and I don't care how.

They prove to be a very rational actor. Sabinator says if Iran agrees to a ceasefire with the USA, does that mean Israel stops getting bombed? With the USA, does that mean Israel stops getting bombed? Well, this is the thing because at the moment, yes, but here we see Netanyahu insisting that he's going to continue the operations in Lebanon. And inevitably what he wants is for the Iranians to respond so that the war resumes.

That is what he's trying to do. I've no doubt, by the way, that when the Iranians agreed to this, they believed that the Americans had agreed that it would extend to Lebanon to. We will really see that Netanyahu has gone, has torn that up and the Americans of course are going along with it. Double triple down says what's the next move for neocons, how to proceed?

Well, I just think we've just said it. They'll be working with Netanyahu to escalate the situation in Lebanon. That's going to be their main focus now. Manfred today says Alexis de Tocqueville whom I'm sure most Americans have read. So said former Iranian president Katami, L.O.L.

Absolutely. Yeah, the Iranians are highly educated people. Marco says Trump is quite fortunate that heads of state no longer lead armies. With this Persian debacle, he'd have ended up like Emperor Valerian or Julian. Both Roman emperors who invaded Iran, Valerian was captured by the Iranians. Julian died in battle fighting the Iranians. Julian, of course, is Julian the apostate, the last pagan emperor. he tried to reverse Rome's conversion to Christianity carried out by his grandfather, Constantine the Great,

just saying. We don't have those situations where heads of state lead armies into battle anymore. Prometheus says you clowns in the UK gave up a free speech. True. Zadam Marinovich says, did you watch Professor Yang's vid, Trump's World Order? If yes, your thoughts? No, no, I haven't.

again, there are only so many hours in the day. And again, I was having to focus. We were having to focus on the news. From Ralph Steiner, you fell victim to one of the classic blunders, the most famous of which never get involved in a land war in Asia, the Prince's bride. I'm true enough. Elena Dia says, what happens with the Palestinians?

That problem remains at the core of everything. unless it's solved unless it's resolved um in a sustainable way which means a just way crisis in the middle east will continue jamila says thank you so much gentlemen for your great work evil said covid-19 not enough people killing now around the world in war maybe not now is enough killing Thank you for that, Jamila. Paul Boy says, I think that Iran should get Adam Sussnick on, LOL. Flying Boar says the U.S. had a hard time with Iran. How are they going to deal with China and Taiwan?

Well, good question. I am sure they're asking themselves that very question. RLB, Jester says, do you have any expectation of Israeli false flags to torpedo the ceasefire? I would be, I would, I would be, fully prepared to expect that. I mean, for the moment, I think their priority is the conflict in Lebanon, which, as I said, is clearly intended to restart the war with Iran.

Marco says Iran has only been conquered from the West twice, and it's 3,000-year histories, whereas the U.S. is civilizationally exhausted within three centuries, howtelling. And did you want to comment on that? Thank you, thank you for that. And finally, from Matthew, how bad do UK mortgage rates get? Very bad. And of course, we have elections coming up in May.

Already, again, incredibly starmas people are trying to explain away the labor defeat and to try to keep him in place. The Labour Party is just collapsing. and Britain's economy is going down. And it was already doing that before the conflict with Iran began. Fahid says Iran should improve its domestic counterintelligence to hunt foreign spies. Yes, obviously. And the final one from Man for today, Trump's no Nero, but he is surrounded by fiddlers.

Yes, very good. All right. You have to do a hard stop, Alexander. I know. I do. The chef the party said it's ludicrous and dangerous at a humble, chef in Scotland is better informed about the world than the US president. Thanks to the Duran, Deniha Fine Dialogue Works and Judge Napolitano.

Thank you for that. All right, we will end it there. You want a little bit over your heart stop, Alexander, so thank you. Well, anyway, thank you. And we'll reconvene again. Yes. More programs tomorrow. We'll keep an eye out.

Important guests coming. And we have much to discuss about this. with some insights maybe into decision-making in Washington, too. Absolutely. Thank you, thank you, everyone. Let me just do one quick, quick check, Alexander, and we're going to let you go, yes. And we have more videos coming up on our channels as well.

From Prometheus, China is doing nothing about America. Oh, yes, I get, well, I'm not going to discuss it. I mean, I don't agree at all. Yeah, China played a big role in all of this. And Flying Boar says Vance was in Hungary to visit Arbon. What's up with that? Well, he's trying to sell oil. He sold oil, actually, yeah.

But he's helping hungry, yeah. But he also sells some oil. All right. We'll let it there. Take care, everybody. Thanks. Thanks.