The Duran Podcast - Iran war energy shock (Live) w/ Alex at Reporterfy & Cyrus Janssen

Episode Date: March 6, 2026

Iran war energy shock (Live) w/ Alex at Reporterfy & Cyrus Janssen

All right, we are live with Alexander Mercuris in London, and we are happy to have it with us. The one and only Cyrus Jansen and Alex from Reportify. Gentlemen, thank you for joining us on this live stream. We have two experts in energy and geopolitics in China. They're experts in everything, Alexander. So let's get to it because we have a lot to discuss. A quick hello to everyone that is watching.

us on all the various platforms. A shout out to our moderators. And hello to the Duran community on Locals, at Duran.orgas.com. I have Alex's information in the description box where you can follow him. I also have Cyrus's information in the description box where you can follow him. I strongly suggest everyone subscribe to their channels. Follow these two great, great analysts.

And at the end of the live stream, I will also pin their information on top as a in comment. So that's it for me, Alexander. I pass it off to you. Well, can I first of all say that we are actually very privileged at this critically important time to be speaking to such absolutely heavyweight, fine, real experts in this matter? Because you'll find all sorts of people out there who talk about these things, both the energy situation in the world, which is now developing, rapidly and also of course the situation in China which is the subject of enormous amounts of misunderstanding and misreporting and conflicting information anyway we are very very privileged on the durand to have them both and can i extend my own welcome and thanks to both of them for coming

now before i did this program i was looking at the financial times the absolute top article there the very first big headline article is from Qatar katar says we're weeks away from an economic disaster that energy that energy supplies of the gulf are running down that before very long more and more of the gulf states the gulf producers are going to have to invoke force majeure in order to stop reduction because if they don't invoke former force measure to stop reduction and to stop supplies, then they will start to be in breach of contract because they're not able to deliver the supplies

that they are being asked to deliver, that they're contracted rather to deliver. He said that we're looking at $150 a barrel for a price of oil very soon. He spoke about problems getting production of LNG and exports of LNG up and running from Qatar. It would take weeks or months, even if the situation ceased now. And he talked about all of this having a significant impact on the global economy. So this is somebody who is the energy minister of Qatar, from what I can understand. and he's talking about all of this. You would have thought that someone like that would not want all this alarmist information

coming out, but that's what he is saying. Now, I have no reason to doubt the truth of what he's saying, but we have two people here who perhaps know much more about these topics than I do. So is this official, Mr. Al-Qatab, I believe he's his name, Is he getting it right? Are we really on the brink of a major energy price shock? Alex, I'll let you take it. I'll take the first one.

Yeah. You know, I think he's underestimating it to $150 a barrel. You know, we have to understand that, you know, the Iranians here have been out of the swift banking system for decades. And they've been, you know, circumventing these rules. and getting their oil into the global market and especially customers like China. Now, Iran knows this. And the GCC countries as well, they know this. So this is going to cause not just a bottleneck with trying to get energy out to the rest of the world, especially Europe,

but this is going to play out with currencies. This is going to play out in the financial system. We are already seeing it. And I'm actually quite surprised. with the current barrel of oil and the natural gas with all the news that's come out on that, that these haven't four X or five X'd in the last week. And what we are seeing in the option market, the derivatives market, I don't know if most of your viewers know about the derivatives market.

It has a value, a notional value, between $600 trillion to $1,000. Now, what is protecting that? mostly the Americans and their CME market in Chicago. The latest print out of Chicago has said, yes, we are breaking records with energy derivatives, people trying to cover their ass, we'll say. But they're also pointed out something that is quite worrying that what is backing these 600 trillion to 800 trillion, 900 trillion, wherever you pick the day, there's only about $300 billion backing it.

So if oil shoots up by 50%, there is not one country on the globe that can handle that much of an impact with these derivative market. It pretty much makes every single bank in the world insolvent. And that's where we are. Iran knows that. They've been setting up offshore companies in Dubai, circumventing it and actually playing the option market themselves because they've been kicked out of the banking system. It's kind of funny. You know, the Fed is printing dollars and waging a war with a country that doesn't even trade in dollars anymore. But anyway, back to you guys. So can I just quickly ask, does the United States know this? Does Donald Trump knows this?

Has this been this advice been given to him? Does Friedrich Merz, the Chancellor of Germany? Does he know this. Do any of these people understand that they are skating, not on thin ice, but on ice that's actually cracking underneath them? You know, I'll take that question. First of all, thank you guys for the amazing intro. And it's a pleasure to connect the four of us again. It's been a long time. And I just want to say thank you for this invitation. And in regards to Donald Trump, I want to come at this from the United States angle. As many of you know, I'm actually based in the United States. I am a U.S. citizen, and I focus a lot on how the United States and China's relationship works. I think what we're seeing right now over the last 72 hours from the Trump

administration, we have seen a tremendous PR disaster in how they have framed this war, how they're trying to sell this war to the American public. So when you ask, does Donald Trump know this, I don't think he could even begin to understand what's going on, because you can really clearly see right now that they have not, you know, done their homework and what's going to happen in this war. Earlier on Fox News a couple days ago, one of the Fox News correspondents had talked with the Trump administration. He said, everybody, we have close details working with the Trump administration, and we know that they have looked at Venezuela as a blueprint for how they would like to handle Iran. And that's the moment when I realized, wow, this is gross incompetence

if they are looking at Venezuela, because the two countries couldn't be further apart as far as, you know, geopolitically. And also, yes, the United States could launch a military operation in Venezuela. They could easily capture Maduro. They could basically wrap that up in a couple of days and off you go. Iran is a total different animal. And if that is what the Trump administration and the senior intelligence from the United States is thinking, they are in a world of trouble right now.

And they are vastly underprepared. I mean, we know the statistics behind Iran four times bigger than you. Iraq, 90 million population. This is also something that I think we need to consider is that this is an existential threat to Iran. They kind of have nothing to lose now. When you take out the Supreme Leader, nothing's going to stop them now. This is really an uncharted territory. Very different than last June. When we saw last June, the United States launched a very discreet, you know, military campaign. I thought it was mainly a PR thing. We're going to fly in with our super jets. We're going to drop a few bombs. We're going to spin it as this.

amazing victory for the next 12 months, every single pep rally that Donald Trump has. You know, we have obliterated Iran's nuclear capability. America is great. We're fantastic. Everything else. If you hear that Iran can still develop nuclear weapons, guess what? That's fake news because the only real news is my is me, Donald Trump. And then all of a sudden, you know, Trump now says, well, they were one week away from developing a nuclear bomb. So you see this constant messaging from the United States government that is really, it's just so many.

errors, it's really actually hard to believe. And you start to see Donald Trump is now firing cabinet members. He's scrambling. You know, Marco Rubio is trying to cover. You know, he made a mistake saying, oh, we did this for Israel. Okay, actually, I didn't say that. Actually, sir, you said that yesterday. Well, it wasn't what I meant. I mean, you just couldn't ask for a more incompetent team from the United States side that is managing this crisis. And I'm very worried for the future. That's kind of my angle on that. I get to quickly answer about Europe, about mounts. They don't understand it either. They'd assumed that this was all going to tumble down and collapse. And I get to make another guess. The Gulf states, the leaders of the Gulf states, didn't understand it

either as well. There are reports this morning that they are telling Trump, for God's sake, win. Just get this win, because you can't leave us alone with Iran if the Iranians, if the Iranians win. So they're telling Trump, keep going, win this battle. That's what you promised us. That's what you must do. And at the same time, they're telling Vladimir Putin, oh, please help us get a ceasefire. Please end this conflict.

I mean, they're telling the Americans one thing. They're telling the Russians the exact opposite. You could see that they themselves were completely taken by surprise by this. And they don't know how to resolve. respond. Alex, can I just ask you this? What about the, what about the financial authorities? What about people at the Fed, at the Bank of England, at the ECB, and all of these big financial institutions? I sometimes wonder how much they understand about what's really going on in the global economy, in the world of finance, in the financial markets. Do they understand that the ice

is cracking beneath them? Well, they should make a call to the CME in Chicago today in the next hour to ask how many contracts are being written because they should be worried about the margin call that Iran is going to be hitting their servers in Manhattan with. We are talking a staggering amount of money. The Iranians are doing this. There is proof in the financial system

by the offshore companies that are being open up in Dubai to act as exactly what they are, trading in derivatives market. So Iran has covered itself. Now, everyone's concerned about missiles going back and forth, but watch what the Iranians are doing. They're hitting tankers. They know that that will trigger some excitement, especially in the natural gas market.

And then, of course, the real ghost in the machine here is, why are they taking out Amazon's data centers? Is this something to do with, you know, AI information, it being used? You know, a lot of these things that the Iranians are doing are quite clever. Everyone says, you know, well, why aren't they hitting them back? They're, you know, the drones are not very effective. Look, they're getting hammered. They don't care.

You can see that they are at that point where, come on, guys, sit down at the negotiation table. come on, Jared Kushner's in town. I call him now The Undertaker. You sit down with that guy for more than 45 minutes, and in the course of 48 hours, you're dead. So I would not sit down with Jared Kushner ever with any meeting about any diplomatic solution that he has, because the Undertaker will take you out. And he does and continues to do that.

So the financial question here is they better wake up fast here. because we are talking within days here, days, Alexander, days. If this oil market becomes totally unglued, and I don't know, they're managing to keep it within respectable levels right now. But once we start breathing that $100, then $125, then $150, I'm thinking $250 to maybe $300. Now, people might think, wow, Alex, that's quite a call. Look what the silver market just did, guys. $120 an ounce for silver?

5,000 an ounce for gold? These boys, I'm telling you now, they didn't see the housing crisis come. And I'm telling you there is so much activity on the derivatives market right now that there is not enough money. There's 10 times more bets on the economies than there is what every single economy together has. There's almost a quadrillion dollars of derivatives written. And that's about 10 times the size of the global economy. and this could so easily come crashing down. And Iran is just sitting back going, you know what, what do we got to lose?

What do we have to lose? We have nothing to lose. And there we sit. And I don't know if I was the Fed right now, maybe it's a good time to vacate. Trump seems to think he's got the right guy. Well, let's see what he can do. Cyrus, lots of talk. There's been lots of talk about China.

And both of you, of course, are China, right? So I'm going to start with you. China is a lot of people say that this whole operation is all about China in the end, cutting off oil supplies to China. And this is the plan. And that China is very vulnerable to the stopping of oil through the Straits of Hormuz, that imports a large amount of oil from the Straits of Hormuz, that the Chinese economy is going to run out of oil,

that it's going to face a crisis. Is there any truth to this? I have my own views about this, but I'd be interested to know what yours are. No. Alex, I just want to say, thank you so much. Alexander, thank you so much for the question, because this is really the exact question I wanted to answer. And I'm so happy to have this opportunity to talk about this, because this is something very interesting that I've been seeing a lot of geopolitical heads talking about on Twitter.

A lot of people saying, look, this war is not about Israel. This war is not about even Iran. This war is all about China, and it's exactly the blueprint. Okay, guys, this is what happened. Donald Trump went after Maduro, you know, not for all, the only specific reason was to actually stop Venezuelan oil going to China. That's the first punch. And now we're going in with the second punch. We take out Iran. Now you've got a one-two punch. China's done. Their economy's finished. USA wins were the greatest in the world. And I look at that analysis and I said, you guys are just scratching the surface of trying to understand how this world works. Here's an

interesting thing. Let's go first to Venezuela. The only thing that has systematically changed in Venezuela right now to the state is, okay, we've taken out Maduro. The vice president has now risen into power. So there's not been a substantial change to that government at all. There's been no change to the citizens and how their, you know, their lives are affected. So this whole thing of regime change and, you know, we want democracy and we want to help the Venezuelan people out. That's all nonsense. What we've done is we've literally gone in and stolen the oil.

There was a new article published about 10 days ago from the South China Morning Post that actually says, says Venezuelan oil is still being sold to China. And actually it's just the United States that's selling it now. So we actually have the United States selling the oil to China as we speak. So Venezuelan oil is still going to China. And so this whole narrative has just blown up because it's not about Chinese buying Venezuelan oil. It's who gets the profits. And obviously, it's the United States government now. By the way, in an offshore account that's controlled by Donald Trump, you can't make up this stuff. It almost sounds like I'm just fabricating a story. This is just how wild geopolitics have gone in 2026.

I mean, the first two months of the year, unbelievable. We can't even imagine what has been happening all of this. Now, now let's go to China. And I've got the stats behind this, all right? This is really interesting because if we look at the Strait of Hormuz, and this is a narrative, gosh, all of this oil leaving the Strait of Hormuz is going to Asia. Well, let's look at other countries in the region. Japan, for example, gets 91% of their oil from the Strait of Hormuz.

Philippines, even more exposed, 94%. Now, China, interesting enough, has a lot less exposure to that. And the first thing is, is we have to realize is that China has now reached an energy self-sufficiency rate of 84% as of last year. And this is what Alex, this is what Alex from a portify and I often talk about, right? We look at what China's doing. And, you know, Alex has made, you know, incredible videos documenting China's rise in electric vehicles. we have made on-the-ground visits to the hydro dams, the solar plants.

You know, China has been leading renewable energy for a long time. When we kind of look at, for example, another hot topic, which is the race of AI, who's going to win the battle of AI, is that the United States or China, China has a strategic advantage, and it's the whole thing, is just electricity. You know, China's electricity production is miles above the United States, where the United States have been stagnant for the last 30 years. our electrical grid right now in the United States cannot handle this. And this is why, you know, AI, actually, it's not about who has the best engineers,

who has the best microchips. China can figure that stuff out. At the end of the day, it comes down to electricity. You know, these things require an unbelievable amount of electricity. So this is what China has been doing. And this is how China moves systematically. They don't think about things in one year, two year. They think 10, 15, 20 years in advance.

And this has been a 20-year project. Same thing in EVs. They set out in the year. 2000, we want to be the dominant power in EVs. It's been a 25-year story, and now they see where they are. Now, the interesting thing is, is if we look at, I've got some statistics here, so we're about 84% for China's self-sufficiency because they have all of these renewable energy. They're now producing as much renewable energy as they are in coal production and to power their country. But if you do the math, about 17% of China's oil comes from Iran. Okay. And then about

59% of China's energy imports is oil. So if we're looking at energy imports are 15.4%. This means that China depends on Iran for roughly 1.5% of its energy. So if you do the math and you kind of go beyond the headlines, I mean, yes, China is exposed to a certain angle, but because of the diversification, they have been able to manage that. And like you said, Venezuela, that first punch that we're talking about, that is Nolan Void because the United States is still selling the oil to China. And so again, I just want people to kind of go beyond the headlines and really go into the numbers. And you can actually see that China is positioned very well because of diversification, much like a stock portfolio. You know, you're not going to put all of your eggs in one basket

and only own one stock for your for your portfolio. Diversification is key. China has been very strategic because of this exact situation. what happens if, and this is what China plans for. Alex, tell us about Europe. What about Europe? Because we already have the highest energy costs of any of the big industrialized places. And so, especially, by the way, does Britain,

Britain's energy costs are twice those France, four times those of the United States. I'm not going to even try to compare what energy costs here in Britain are like with those in China. People are not aware of the fact, but we are going through a second de-industrialization process in Britain. Our first big one was in the 1980s. We are now going through another one as well.

The next level of de-industrialization. Germany is also going through a major industrial crisis. Germany imports its LNG from the United States. Qatar is not exporting LNG. Asian markets are going to start competing for LNG at higher prices. Europe is going through a major fiscal crisis. We are very heavily in debt here. What is going to happen to us?

Is that question for me? It is a question for you. I was waiting for that one, Alexander. Thank you very much. You see, this is where you have to look, who you can trust and who are your friends. You know, China has always been called, you know, an adversary of the United States. Now, when has China asked for regime change? Probably never.

Where have they said, okay, we're going to attack this country next? These guys, just outside that window there, there is multi, multi-billion dollars investment in the infrastructure in this country, as Cyrus just covered. We are open for business here. We are not of the strategy to bomb, bankrupt, and bully other nations, even though they can. They have the military power. I've seen it in the weaponry hall last year at the air show. Impressive. But most people here, they talk about helping other nations out, win-win.

You'll always hear that term here in China, win-win situation. And we hear it because China has. has a great relationship with 154 countries around the world with the BRI now. They're starting to trade in that currency. They're starting to understand that China is a good friend that is not going to replace your government next year if they're not happy about it. So when it comes to Europe, when it comes to saving the day, Chinese will come in and save the day, but they will remember. And this will change the entire global community and I guess possibly the opinion that China bad, China bad is not so bad anymore.

Maybe we can open up the doors to these guys and have them as trusting partners. But what it's going to take for Europe to understand this is it's going to take an absolute meltdown in their financial markets once and for all. And I mean going broke and go and broke big time. And when that happened in the global economy back in the housing crisis of 2008, 2007, it was a consortium of Chinese investors and Chinese government that went to the United States of America to calm the financial markets around the world and to set an example, reckless spending of your economy can get you in deep trouble. So the Chinese know very well what is about to come.

This is a country that today, I'm not sure if our viewers are aware, but this is two sessions week. This is a week each year. It goes on for about 10 days. Every year in China, they plan for the next five years. And they are held accountable to bringing these projects or these goals to the people. Now they have said, we want to grow at 5% GDP next year. And they will probably either match that or exceed that. It's a country that is very responsible when it comes to its leadership.

Now, the Europeans, I don't think they have anything to worry about. A crisis could happen, of course, in the energy market. But waiting around the corner, I'm telling you now, the Chinese, they understand what could hit the shores of Europe real quick and destabilize that economy. But it's good that we have someone that doesn't want. want to knock out every government around the world and it's a country like China. And this is why Cyrus and I are so, you know, we're, I'm Canadian. Cyrus is dual citizen as well.

We have these discussions all the time where I'll have people telling me what my life is like in China when they've never been to China and telling me, you know, what about the social credit system and all of these things? So back to the European angle on this, Europe is going to need help because they majorly effed up here with the Russians. And that oil is flowing nicely from Russia right into China without any interruptions. And if they want it back, I guarantee you that that meeting is probably going to take place in Beijing. Yeah. I've heard the same actually. That now brings us to something else. And I'd like both of your opinions about this, but I'll start with Cyrus. What about China and

Iran. I mean, the relationship has been quite a good one. Wang Yi has talked to Arakshi, who is the foreign minister. China says that it supports Iran in its struggle for preserving its sovereignty. What is the exact nature of the relationship between China and Iran? A lot of speculation that China is helping Iran in all kinds of ways, maybe military, maybe intelligence. There's certainly publishing lots of satellite photos of American bases, which is quite interesting. But what about economic assistance to Iran? We had quite a lot about that a couple of years ago. There was going to be a major economic treaty. And just this one question, this whole sequence of events that we've had over the last few weeks,

began with an American orchestrated crash of the Iranian currency. We know that because Scott Besson told us that it was an American orchestrated crash of the Iranian currency. Why didn't Iran turn to China at that moment? They're both members of the BRICS. I understand the central banks have connections of contacts, What is the relationship between these two countries and is China helping Iran at this time and in what way? Cyrus.

Yeah, great, great question, Alexander. So I think what we need to look at in China's relationship and how they do business around the world, it's a very interesting one because China is positioned as a major superpower. It is like Alex, like Alex, reporter five said earlier. It has 154 countries around the globe that are inside the Belmont. and Road Initiative. We know that Iran has received its full BRICS membership. And so that BRICS partnership is very close in terms of economic and trade. Now, the interesting thing here with China is that they are very strategic in how they move around militarily. For example, a lot of people were saying, look, China should be sending troops in. They should be, you know, supplying missiles. They should really

be, you know, putting the Chinese military into Iran to really counter that. China still has to manage a very tight relationship because, for example, we know that this is Israel and the United States that are battling Iran. Now, China's not going to be sending in their military to battle the United States directly. At the end of the day, the United States and China are still very, very important trading partners. And it's always this balancing act that you have to manage with China and the United States because at one point, we call them an adversary. But on the other hand, they're one of our top trading partners. And actually, they're a vital trading partner for the lifeline of the United States economy.

This is something that I often talk about. You know, we would not have a robust American economy if we did not have this trade with China. And the best example with that was last April liberation day when Donald Trump passed his tariffs around the globe because of his aggressive actions against China, this is what caused the stock market in the U.S. to completely melt down.

Because China is the one country in the world that actually has leverage against the United States with the access to its rare earth minerals. So, for example, last year, when you saw, you know, Trump go after the UK or Europe or Canada, for example, Canada has no leverage. You know, the Canadians can't really do anything if Trump wants to bully him. But when Trump says, China, we're going to do 100 percent tariffs, we're going to do 150, 200 percent, China can retaliate and just said, we'll match you, we'll match you until they basically

call Trump's bluff. He calls off the thing, and then we resume trade. And, you know, he has to kind of spin it in a way that he saves face and that he, you he calls it a win, but that's the balance of that United States and China trade relationship. So in regards back to getting back to the core of the question here, what is what is China and Iran doing? I wouldn't be surprised if China is certainly providing them with some type of military assistance, if it's intelligence, if it is potentially some supplies. I think what the simple thing is is, you got to look at Russia and Ukraine. Obviously, the United States or sorry, obviously China and Russia

are close allies, but we didn't see China helping out the Russians either, right? We didn't see Chinese military go in and start to battle in Ukraine. Interesting enough, China also has a good relationship with Ukraine. And the whole time, China has been trying to balance that middle point of saying, look, we are allies, we have relations with both Russia. We have relations with both Ukraine. You know, we want to respect the sovereignty of both nations. We don't particularly like this conflict. We would like to get peaceful resolution because China, generally speaking, is a very peaceful country. I mean, they have not been involved in a war directly since 1979 in Vietnam. So I think you just find a lot of cautiousness from China because they're unlike the United States

who are certainly going to be firing at will, causing havoc, you know, going for regime change. You know, the United States is a very aggressive in their foreign policy around the world. We all know this. This is a fact, whether South America, the Middle East, the United States will bomb it will. They will do whatever the hell they want to do. China is going to be more coming it from a strategic sidelines and always trying to make sure that their position in the world stays balance. You know, this is why, for example, China is not going to be sending in troops and sending in military craft to Russia to battle the Ukrainians. They're not going to do the same with Iran, but they're going to support it other ways, whether that's financial, whether that's intelligence,

still trying to manage that balance that relationship and international trade. Alex, can I ask you this? Because I've been following, I've been taking much more interest in China over the last year and I have now contacts there. One of the things I've discovered is that there absolutely is such a thing as Chinese public opinion. People in China do talk about these things. They talk about things on their very active social media, which I think people underestimate actually the extent to which this debate takes place. And also the Chinese public media, the state media, if you like, is also very informative. What is the present? What is the present? mood in China-like. Are they optimistic? Are they worried about all of this? Do they see a very

aggressive United States as a potential threat? Are they saying to themselves these attacks on Iran? Are they a precursor to a possible attack upon ourselves? Some of the rhetoric, some of the people of the United States, is extraordinary. But, I mean, they're following these events, in Iran? Is this a big topic of discussion? What is the general mood about it in China? Excellent question. And I can give this a good answer. I work with the state media here in China, and I understand the responsibilities that come along working with media directly here and the colleagues that work in our offices and other media outlets. they will not sugarcoat news stories here in China. Sometimes the stories may not be, have the flair of Fox News,

but there's a responsibility. And the average person is extremely concerned about what is going on in Iran. They're extremely concerned at what's going on in Venezuela. And we're starting to hear a lot of chatter and a lot of talk about Cuba. And if these continue, If this continues, the average person here is concerned that the Americans may continue to push this right to the shores here. And they will involve China's Taiwan. And this is where things become really messy.

Now, for the moment, they understand, the country understands that its military has been building for almost five. to six decades. This is a military that hasn't depleted its arms. It hasn't lost men in battle. It hasn't lost artillery. It hasn't lost tanks. It hasn't lost any of its weaponry because it has not been in a conflict. So let's just say the shelves are stocked.

And the average Chinese knows the shelves are stocked. It's interesting when I went to the weaponry hall in the, air show and saw all the weapons. And it was quite bizarre to see Chinese people taking selfies with ballistic missiles in the background. And I chummed up against a few of them and said, you know, what do you think? And they said, I'm proud of my country that these products behind us are not for offensive. They are for defensive purposes only. And you hear that mentality around people in this country. They're very educated. They're very educated in geopolitical topics as well. They are all over the social media platforms. In fact, they can criticize their

government. There is a number. It's quite easy one to remember. One, two, three, four, five. And you call that number and you can say, I don't like this and I don't like that. And or I need, this needs to be fixed. Or if it's from a municipality level, a street, lights down, you will get an answer in 48 hours. In matter of fact, if you might even get a small token of cash for reporting something that improves the city. That's just how it is. It works like a machine here.

The country behaves like a company. And there is accountability. Yes, it's not perfect. They do take corruption serious here. They two take things in other countries that should be serious, like drugs. You know, there are harsh penalties for that. But at the end of the day, are they concerned about geopolitical issues? Absolutely.

But they look at it from a different angle. They don't look at it from, you know, we feel bad. Look at the Americans. They're aggressive. They're concerned about how close that is going to get to their borders. and it's getting warm now here. And normally what happens is I have a saying, you know, the guilty always screamed the loudest.

The Americans, as Cyrus has, you know, shared, are in big trouble here. And if they can't get out of this Iranian situation, they are going to do whatever they can to bring China into the situation. And that's where we have a big, big problem. And I think the energy sector is going to bankrupt a lot of these Middle Eastern countries and the United States system. You can just see the swings in the financial markets right now. Dow up 1,000, Dow down 1,000, Dow up 1,000, oil up 6%. It's not going to take much.

And once those fall, the Americans get desperate and then they do more stupid things. And don't get me going on Lindsey Graham, but he has come over to the shores here. few times and if it's either him or Jared we got problems. Cyrus, can I turn to you and talk about the other big Russian oil, the Russian oil and Chinese trade here? Now, Russia is of course a major energy exporter. It exports to many, or used to export to many countries. It's been very, very heavily sanctioned.

Putin raised eyebrows in Europe the other day when he said that, Let's completely forget about supplying LNG to Europe. They don't want to buy it. So why should we even think about selling it to them? Most people don't know. But China is already heavily involved in Russian LNG, as I understand. I mean, the Chinese, well, I should say I have a friend of mine who's actually worked in the Russian LNG industry.

And you told us all about this. The Chinese are already there. And we're now entering the summer. So, you know, the Arctic ice is melting. It's going to melt. So the sea routes are open. You can send ships along the northern coast all the way to China. You don't need to worry about trade, about interference in your ships if you use that route.

Is this a developing thing? Is the Russian oil trade with China? growing, is this something that is important for China too? Oh, absolutely. There's no doubt about it that, you know, we already know that China is the largest buyer of Russian, you know, fossil fuels and that they already do a tremendous amount of business together. This is certainly increased as, you know, over the last four years. And I think, you know, the interesting thing that we always have to look at in geopolitics is that I think every nation has to make the best decision for their country, right? We look at, for example,

India, right? India for a long time was given a lot of beef from the United States saying, look, you have to, you're the world's largest democracy. You need to fall in line with our objectives. You can't be buying Russian oil. And what had Modi said, Modi said, look, I've got an opportunity to buy Russian oil at a discounted price. This is the best interest in my country. And, you know, our geopolitical stance is one of non-alignment, right? We're going to kind of be walking the fence. And, you know, yes, we want to be allies with the United States, but we're also going to do, you know, business with the Russian. because there are BRICS members, our BRICS founding member.

You know, and we're also having a unique opportunity to take advantage of that price point with a growing economy. Why wouldn't we do that? It's in the best interest of my nation, which is what I have to focus on. You see a very similar thing from China. Obviously, China's going to lean a little bit more into Russia in the future, certainly right now. The oil increases are, the oil imports are increasing. And I think it's going to be a big part of China's strategic, you know, objectives moving forward.

I mean, but we see this. I mean, again, it goes back to what I said earlier in far as the diversification, because even though China and Russia do a lot of oil trade, it's still not a significant amount. It's not something like 60, 70%. It's roughly around 20%. You know, you had 20%, you know, 17% from Iran. You've got, you know, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, you've got even the United States, Canada, you've got a lot of different oil coming from all over the world. And it's just an interesting one. Even this is a fun thing that maybe your viewers don't realize. Throughout this entire conflict with Russia, the United States has been actively buying uranium from the Russians because we can't get it anywhere else. And about 25% of the electricity generated in the United States for homes in the United States is generated from nuclear power. So despite the fact that, you know, the United States wants to push this button of, you know, we need to sanction the Russians, we can do nothing with the Russians, cut them off from everything. All of the United States. All of the United States wants to push this button of, you know, you know, we need to sanction the Russians, we can do nothing. of that, we're still spending hundreds of millions of dollars a year on uranium. They have a plan

to try to phase that out and reduce that dependency. But you can't just, it's not a light switch. You can't just say, okay, tomorrow we stop. Obviously, you have supply chains. You have to reroute things. It's going to take. You need a very long plan to do that. So again, even over the last four years, we're still buying uranium. So this is kind of a thing that we don't talk about. New York Times, actually, one of the truthful things they did is they actually made a whole story about this, is just how dependent the United States is on uranium. So again, you always have to go beyond the headlines and do a little bit more research

because the United States, no matter how much they want to say this to the world, that you can't be doing business with the Russians, they still have to do business with the Russians on some things that are vital to the United States stability. China's going to lean into that relationship. Obviously, China and Russia are both founding members of the BRICS organization.

They are close trading partners. Again, we see a unique relationship. where obviously China's not getting involved militarily. They're not going to be putting boots on the ground or military aircraft directly in that conflict with Ukraine. An interesting one here just to kind of talk about how nations really need to depend and they're going to do what's in their best interest. We even see in the United States government now reach out to Ukraine and get help for missile

deceptors. So, you know, this is an interesting development where, you know, Ukraine has been begging the United States government for more military help. Now the United States is realizing, gosh, our missile interceptors are, we're running low on these. Ukraine, can you help us out? Can you help us out in our conflict in the Middle East? So it's just an unbelievable kind of turn of events. And again, yes, I do think that that Russia-China relationship is going to continue to grow. I mean, this whole idea, this is like to Alex now, this whole idea of economic blockades and economic war on China and trying to stop exports from the Gulf in order to hurt China and all of this.

This is geopolitics by teenagers. It is not fundamentally how geopolitics or at least international relations and international trading relations managed intelligently work. The whole idea of an economic blockade on China, which some people in the United States have been talking about. If you look at patterns of world trade, I mean, it's stupid, more stupid even than the sanctions on Russia were, far more stupid. And starting a war with Iran, if that is the objective, in order to do this, is not just stupidity, it's absolute complete fault. on top of everything else. It just doesn't understand how economics, how trading relationships, how those sort of things work at all. Can I ask you, though, a separate question about China,

how stable and strong is the Chinese economy? Because over the last five years, there's been this Endless narrative. In fact, it started even before the pandemic, that the Chinese economy is brittle, that there's overwhelming debt, that the property markets are in crisis, that China is overinvesting in production and in industry, that it's not dealing with its major financial problems, and that what it needs to do is to reflate its economy. It needs to do massive spending spree, suck in more imports, ultimately from the United States and Europe. And that if it doesn't do that, it's in a case, it's in a state of stagnation. How much truth is there in that claim?

Excellent question. I think it's good news if you overspend. if you've got the money and you have nothing else to spend it on, why not? I mean, just outside my window here in the municipality of Chongqing, city of 36 million, since I moved here, over 4,000 bridges have been built in this area. Bullet trains are going all over the country. Yes, we see the shock reporters when they arrive, you know, BBC, when they say, we're standing behind an empty ghost town.

What they don't say or what they don't do is they don't go back five years later and show that this is a city like Tianjin or a city like Shenzhen. At one time, did you know that Shanghai was actually considered a ghost town? So it's one of the pinnacle cities in the world. It's a world-class city. And I mean, these are the hit pieces. Now, that's not to say that there's not problems here. There is some problems in the real estate market. Absolutely, there has been some problems and there has been some casualties.

But again, I think Cyrus can really relate. We've had this discussion a lot about real estate and how Chinese, Chinese go out and they buy their homes. This is what they do. They invest their capital. The home to the family is very important. Very few people rent in China. Most people are either owners of one, two, maybe three or four properties. It's not uncommon.

Most of the colleagues I talked to, I was like, how is it going? Good. My family just bought a house. So don't you guys have a house? Well, no, it's for me and my family in the future. So sometimes they will buy homes in cities that might not be built for two or three years. And this is what the unique thing about China. China builds one city per year about the size of Chicago. It pre builds it. It pre builds a building.

It pre builds the town hall, the skating rinks, the swimming pools, the parks. And it waits. Now, there is big emphasis on actually, and this was brought up in the two sessions just the other day here, of getting this country to produce more babies. Currently right now, it's around 12 to 14 million Chinese babies are born a year. The government wants to accelerate that. So that is their way of, you know, stimulating the economy by making more babies and spending more money, you know, growing families. you have to be very careful here because if you get it wrong, you've got it wrong on a nation, not of 50 million, not of 200 million, but a nation of 1.4 to 1.5 billion people.

So that's why they have these really important meetings like two sessions every year to decide what they're doing in the next five years. But yes, to answer your question, there are cracks in certain real estate projects that some of them just simply got out of hand. some of the architecture here is amazing in China and some architectural companies and developers get excited thinking, you know, this is going to go on forever. Now, the economy did slow down. Of course, the world pandemic didn't help that at all. But they're aware of it. Yes, they do discuss it in social circles here that it would be nicer if we can get the economy back. but to where, you know, it's growing at 7%, which is impressive. But we have to think China is not just this country where, you know,

it has a very deep stereotype in Westerners. When they look at China, they think cheap Chinese products made in plants with workers that aren't getting paid much money. That is so far from the truth now. What's happened here in China is the workers now, are earning good salary. And the country, I don't know if you're aware of this, guys, but so many people, international influencers,

have flocked to this country in the last year to 18 months. The secrets are out. China isn't bad, like they've said on the Western media. The word is getting out, and the government goal here is to make this one of the most travel countries in the world within the next decade. It's amazing what they do when we talk about, let's say, Iran or Russia. Russia's economy was, it performed quite well, but where did Russians travel?

They started traveling to China. China knew this. The relationship grew well. They said, okay, let's make it easier for the Russians to come to China. How about no visa, guys? Try do that in Europe if you're a Russian. You're going to have a hell of a hard time getting into Europe on a Shenzhen visa. Well, the same just probably will happen with Iran once this whole conflict, I hope, comes to an end.

Chinese are going to go in there. They're going to rebuild the country. They're going to help the Iranians rebuild their country. Of course they will. And of course, they will, you know, open the arms and invite them and welcome them here. Business-wise, you know, humanitarian-wise, the Chinese, that's just who they are. Cyrus, aren't they? That's just who they are.

That's Chinese. they are aware they're there they're yeah go ahead i'd like to add a little bit to that because there's there's yeah so because i think it's a great question and i do want to be really fair here because alex is mentioning the two sessions and there was an interesting thing china just revised its growth and actually lowered it for the first time since 1991 so that's a headline that you're going to see and the context here that i think is important is i always we always try to be as fair and rational on our analysis on China. And I do want to be very clear, yes, it's now been revised to about a 4.5% growth. And a lot of people, you know, obviously the headlines in the U.S.

are like, China's collapsing. This is a massive problem. The 4.5% growth is still more than the United States is projected to growth. And you have to remember the scale of the economy, right? If you're growing 4.5%, that's about the equivalent of adding a Thailand-sized economy to your already existing economy. And we know the numbers of scale, right? I'll give you example. When I first went to China in 2007, the economy grew by 14.4%. Incredible growth. I mean, this was an amazing time to be in China because so many industries were growing. But, you know, it's the compounding rule, right? If you keep doubling a number, it's, you know, it's very easy to double when you're starting at 10, double to 20, double to 40. But as that number gets bigger and bigger, it's very hard to double that number, right? This is why China could have that robust number of, wow, 14.4% in 2007.

Okay, fast forward a few more years. 10% growth in 2010. Still incredible. You know, double what the United States is growing. And as the economy continues to scale, it's going to be harder and harder to have these double-digit growth numbers. We're not going to see a double-digit growth number in China anytime in the future. It's going to be revised lower because the economy is much bigger. We talk about real estate.

Yes, the real estate sector was a bit overheated. I was in the real estate sector in China. I bought an apartment in 2009. I flipped it in 2016. and had a tremendous amount of appreciation in the span of seven years. That was the time of China that was very different than before because what happens is, you know, China realized, look, we don't want to have this high speculation of people buying and flipping houses,

which, by the way, is very much the model here in the United States where everybody's trying to buy a house. Hopefully it appreciates. Hopefully you can flip. You have people that are constantly flipping houses. But China says, you know, what Alex alluded to, China says, look, housing is for living. We want you guys to be living in these houses.

We don't want you speculating so much. We want stability. Chinese work for stability is Wending. You know, that is in Chinese culture, they value that stability. This is why, for example, they don't want to have wars because, you know, wars and chaos is very, very unstable for the Chinese. And that's, if you actually go back into Chinese history, you look at the 5,000 years of Chinese history, China has been anything but Wendting. It's been very unstable, right? Dynasties rise and they fall, constant rise, fall, constant rise,

at rise fall. So for thousands of years, there was never stability in China. And this is why when you, you know, Alexander, when you said, I went to China and I started to realize that, you know, there is a public opinion in China. And if you talk to Chinese people, what they'll often say is, look, since the communist government was founded in 1949, our country has achieved that stability. Yes, there's been times of, you know, very hard times, right? During Chairman Mao's rule, the great leap forward, you know, the one child policy. There was definitely mistakes made in difficult times, the cultural revolution, things like that.

But again, the current government was established in 1949. And over the last 5,000 years of history, this has been the most stable time. This is where we've seen China rise from one of the top 10 poorest countries in the world to one of the top three richest countries in the world, you know, very close to the United States. And if you look at purchase power parity, it's actually, you know, the economy's bigger than the United States. So China is always continuing to evolve. It's looking to change like Alex had alluded to. They're trying to do things like actually say, let's increase consumer spending.

You look at certain areas. If you're in AI, robotics, this is going to be a huge industry. One of the videos that I just made on my channel a couple weeks ago was talking about how China's birth crisis is actually going to be resolved by robotics. China will lose a lot of its population in the future. It will not be 1.4 billion people. It will actually lose a lot because it has a very aging population. But as a result of that, it is leading the world in robotics. And you're having complete factories like the Xiaomi car factory right now is a dark factory.

Everything's robotics. They don't need lights on because it can run 24-7 on robotics. And this is how they're supplementing there. So these are the stories that we need again. Go beyond the headlines, get some context, and understand that China is advancing, and they're doing it in a different way, and they're adapting to the current challenges. I'm glad you brought up Chinese history, actually, because this is something I wanted just to touch on,

that goes back to Iran. Because China and Iran have actually had a very, very long history of interaction. It's about people don't know, but I mean, the Chinese dynasties of the past were very heavily involved in Central Asia, very much in contact with the Iranian world. there were trade missions between Iran and China at the time of the Tang Dynasty and after the Iranians imported Chinese porcelain.

I mean, these are two cultures that historically have known each other quite well. Do they know each other now? I mean, are Chinese people informed? Cyrus, just your thoughts about this. Do Chinese people know very much about Iran? because I can tell you for a fact, very few people in the West know a great deal about Iran beyond, you know, what they see in the headlines. Absolutely. I think one of the interesting things about China is that when you talk to the people, they're a very educated people. And I always get used this example. Whenever I'm in China and I get into a taxi, you know, one of the first questions is always, where are you from? I'm from the United States.

And immediately that taxi driver will be able to talk about, you know, they're up to date on geopolitics. They're up to date on what's going on. Chinese people, they love to study how the world is around them. And I think that's a little bit more common for, you know, obviously Europeans very similar, right? They can understand the world around them. You know, my home country, the United States, the vast majority of people, we don't look outside the United States. The vast majority of Americans actually don't really even know much about Canada. Our closest trading neighbor, our neighbor did this to the north.

If you ask the majority of Americans, what is the capital city of Canada? I would guarantee you a large majority would get that wrong. They would say Toronto when it's in fact Ottawa. This is our closest trading part. This is our neighbor. So I think what you see is, and this is what I've always observed and I've always been amazed by, is, you know, for example, I will be in a taxi. I will talk to Chinese people. They know Iran's history.

They know the situation in the Middle East. They'll constantly reference. Remember when the United States dropped that bomb over there? Do you remember when they started the Iraq? war with weapons of mass destruction that actually didn't exist. I mean, they're up to date on these things a lot more. And I think it's, what's interesting is, is even at, you know, your blue collar level, right, you know, like a taxi driver that's just making a very modest salary every year, you know, spending his day's taxi. You'll turn on the radio and they're having talk shows

about this, right? This conflict is all over Chinese news. You know, when I was in China, you know, when I go every summer, I'm back in China for multiple months, you know, with my family. And, you know, I remember going to, you know, just restaurants and, you know, on the TV. You know, it's always geopolitics shows. We're talking about conflicts all over. I guarantee you right now, 24-7, they are having coverage over the Iran and Israel, United States war right now. I mean, we saw this actually because there was actually Chinese reporters that were showing,

actually in Tel Aviv. They were actually showing the bombs that were being hit in Tel Aviv, and people were commenting, wait a second, we're not seeing this on the CNNs and the BBC's. And I don't know if you guys saw that clip where the CNN kind of spilled the beans here. They said, we would like to show you that, but Israel has requested that we do not show these images for you. So back to the studio over there. And it was a huge admission. It's like, wait a second.

I'm sorry, what? Israel has requested that you don't show this to the American people. And that's what happened is that we actually had a CCTV film crew live on the ground in Tel Aviv going over an apartment building that was bombed. And then all of a sudden, Israeli authorities came and shut them down. It's like, whoa, whoa, whoa, you're not allowed to show this stuff. But those photos and videos started getting leaked. And it's like, oh, well, because of Chinese media being on the ground in Israel, now we're getting an interesting angle.

I've had some contacts in Russia that have told me the same thing that have said, look, we're starting to see a lot of different kind of content, a lot of content coming from Israel that the Russians are sharing because they're getting things that are not censored. And I think that's what's a really big thing. So, yeah, to answer that question, the Chinese are very aware. The Chinese are very intelligent.

They're very smart. They know world history. They're up to date. And again, you go to a restaurant in China right now. I guarantee you the TV's on. People are watching and discussing this. I'm going to finish with one last point. And it is a point, actually, which is I originally trained as a historian.

This is where I started. This is my thing. And in some ways, this does remind me, the situation today does remind me in some respects of the situation a century ago in the West. You had in Europe, specifically one country, Germany, which from about 1910 became incredibly busy, very active, was starting wars, seemed to be sweeping the board in all sorts of ways, was becoming very, very aggressive,

developed extraordinary ideas, which began, by the way, well before 1933, before a certain person came to power, which had, by the way, a very fragile, a very fragile financial system. A very fact of people about Germany don't know about Germany very well, but at the same time was convinced

that technologically, industrially, militarily, it was superior to everyone else. And this created a whole succession of crises in Europe, and for various periods of during those crises, It looks as if the Germans were going to sweep the board. And then, of course, far away, watching all of this, there was the big, enormous industrial, economic power of that time, looking after itself, waiting, watching, keeping its distance.

And eventually, of course, it swept the board. Let's replace Germany with the US today. the United States of that time with China, are there any parallels to be made? Cyrus, we've had this discussion, haven't we? Absolutely. Do you want me to take this, Alex? Yeah, well, whichever you prefer. I think this one is suited for you.

When we have this discussion, you're... Well, I think what we're seeing right now is, And, you know, I got to be honest. You know, I know, for example, Alex was very much on the big supporter of Donald Trump. I think, you know, I think our tunes have changed tremendously against Trump. I mean, if you follow me on Twitter, I've almost become, you know, very anti-Trump. And people have kind of, you know, slag me on that a little bit. But the thing that I've seen in the United States, you know, again, I'm a U.S. citizen.

I'm looking at how my government is conducting itself around the world. what we're doing and we're seeing a dramatic shift. I think a 20, I think a 2016 Donald Trump is a completely different person than a 2026 Donald Trump. And we've seen these changes start over the year. I think 2020 was a major inflection point when he did not want to give up that presidency.

We saw, you know, that is the backbone of a democracy, right, is the peaceful handover of power. That is what separates us from, you know, autocracy and other different types of government. I think what you're seeing right now is you're seeing Donald Trump, very much embracing almost a 1933 Germany. And this is we're going down a very similar pathway right here.

You know, we see this. And there was a very interesting video made by Johnny Harris, fantastic YouTuber who actually made a video a few days ago saying, has fascism returned? I believe that Donald Trump is certainly a fascist. I believe that he wants ultimate power. He's now saying things like, you know, I think I deserve a third term.

You know, I think I deserve this. And what's happening is here, guys, is that we have a very manipulated media in the United States, right? We have social media platforms and media that are being consolidated and controlled by, you know, a handful of billionaires that can really control the narrative. You have mega influencers that are starting to say, you know what, Trump's right. I think he deserves a third term. And whether you think he deserves it or not, we have to go back to the Constitution.

obviously you can have a third term if you put a bill forward and ratify the Constitution, right? That's what would, that is what needs to happen for you in order to do that. There is a process. You put it towards Congress and if you get a 67% majority vote, you could ratify the Constitution

and change it, run for a third term. These are the principles that are countries based on. But when we're starting to go away from that and you're starting to see these very fascist elements embraced, you're starting to see the desperation from the Trump administration of just, honestly, look, Look at the headlines that we've had in the first nine weeks of 2026.

It's actually been a little bit hard for us as geopolitical commentators because, you know, we talk about Venezuela today. Boom. It's Greenland next week. Okay, now it's Canada. Now we're in Iran. You know, now it's, now it's a regional war. Now are we talking China?

What about Taiwan? I mean, how do we stay on top of things? You almost have to, we almost have to just do live streams because the stories are changing so fast. Do I have time to add to that? Absolutely. You go to wrap up. So, you know, as I was saying, you know, in 2016, I was like, okay, maybe this is a change for America. But then it comes down to who his administration is made up of.

And the influence that they have on his decision making is absolutely incredible. You asked me six months ago, did I think that the Americans would fly into a sovereign nation with some helicopters, grab a guy in his pajamas and his wife and truck him to a jail in New York? I would think you're crazy. I don't anymore. Do I think Canada could become the 51st state of America by force from Americans? I'm starting to believe it now. Does Greenland are they posing a threat from the Americans?

Yes, I'm starting to believe that now too. You know, is this going to come to the shores of China? Maybe. Just maybe it's going to. And what happens is when we start to get into this world of just so much stress, so much worry, mistakes are going to be made here and I think this Iranian invasion was a colossal mistake and it's going to play out in these markets. I want to add one more thing just because I know I talked about derivatives a lot earlier here today. There is a very strange firm called Jane Street.

I don't know if you've ever aware of them, but they are one of the largest derivatives traders in the way. world, 87% of their $662 billion portfolio is in derivatives. They are a very secretive operation. They have 3,000 employees, but they don't have a CEO. They don't have a CFO. They've been kicked out of the Indian Stock Exchange. They pretty much blew up a, I think, a crypto stable coin for $40 billion. And these boys are on the market.

And I'm telling you, they are. are going to wreak havoc on the American market. Watch out for them. You'll hear their name in the newspapers, but you'll be very lucky to find out who is behind them. But they got quite the bet on silver, and I'm just looking at the pre-market on the good old oil there, and there you go.

52-week high. Just hit just now. 87, 57, up 8% today. Look out. Gosh. Gentlemen, you have been wonderful. Thank you very much for joining us. perhaps if you could just wait just a few more minutes

Alex I think two minutes a couple questions directed at both you guys just a couple more minutes if you can our viewers would appreciate it I thought it would last more than an hour yeah yeah let me start off with with Cyrus from Lee Levin can factory workers afford to buy homes in China you know there's a great there's a great I want you to look at this but just put in

type in HSBC China home ownership I think if you type that in on Google, you're going to see that. So about, if you're looking at a home ownership rate in China is between 80 to 90%. And you got to remember, when you're looking at factory workers, they're in much more rural villages in China. So, you know, the prices of homes there are much more affordable. So, you know, you're not thinking of these like million dollar apartments in Shanghai and things like that. If you look at China as a whole, China is close to around 85% home ownership. Alex had alluded to that earlier that the Chinese value the home. Actually, in Chinese culture, that the home is your absolute most important asset in your entire life.

And actually in Chinese culture, you have to have a home in order to propose to a woman to ask her to marry you. So this is the whole thing behind this. This is why Alex alluded to as well. Sometimes families will come together, help you purchase a home, you know, financially support you. But you have the home ownership rates are some of the highest in the world. Just Google it. China home ownership rates, Google it. You're going to be able to see that compared to even Western countries.

China almost leads the world in home ownership rates. All right. From JHW, question for Alex. What do you know about knockout clauses that nullify derivatives contracts if oil gets a certain price? Well, knockout contracts. I mean, that's a very good question because you have to question the solvency of the bank. And can they afford that? Like I said, at the start of the program here, there's only about $308 billion securing about $600 to $800 trillion. even if it hits it, you know, it doesn't necessarily mean that the bank is going to be solvent to pay you, depending on what side of the trade you're on. It's kind of like you're an insurance broker. And if everybody gets into a car crash all at once, well, the insurance broker just says, well, act of God or we're filing for bankruptcy.

It's been nice. Thank you very much. So the counterparty is important on that. Knockout clauses, I wouldn't rely on it. Secure your positions. Okay. from one second guys from uh da da da da just i had it i had it cute off for you cyrus saris what is the status of the chinese rail through pakistan to the strait of hormus is it for nothing if the strait is closed indefinitely

yes that's a good one actually we've seen china has a very key relationship with pakistan developing that rail project um i got to be honest i don't know the current status as of right now and how that's operating I don't have an exact answer for that. That's something that we should definitely look into. I'm sorry, I guess you have to be honest. I don't know exactly what's happening. No worries, no worries. There's another one for you, Cyrus,

and I got one final one for Alex, and then I will let you gentlemen go, and Alexander will wrap up the remainder of the questions from Arcane Eclectic. Cyrus, can you explain to the audience that there is no such thing as the CCP. It's called the CPC, Communist Party of China. Yeah, I think, you know, this is,

This is an interesting one. I mean, the official name is the Communist Party of China. In Western media, you mostly hear the Chinese Communist Party, CCP, CPC. I think, you know, honestly, I think it kind of blows up into something that really doesn't need to be talked about. You know, whether you call it CCP or CPC, it's the Chinese government. You know, I think a lot, it's mainly a talking point where, you know, if you're in China, people will call it the CPC, you know. And so it's basically a point where some people will say, hey, the CCP, and then you'll get into an argument, well, that's actually technically called the CPC, you know, tomatoes tomatoes. I think a lot of people blow it out of proportion.

I mean, kind of an interesting side note to that. When the Chinese New Year holiday just happened about two weeks ago, many people were online battling. Is it called the Lunar New Year or the Chinese New Year? You know, the Chinese was saying, well, based on our Chinese thing. Or spring festival. And so, you know what I told him? I just said, look, at the end of the day, let's have a nice holiday. Whether you want to have a call it, Merry Christmas, Happy holidays.

Happy Chinese New Year, Spring Festival, Lunar New Year, whatever you want to call it. This is the year of the horse. Let's have a good one. Right on. All right. For Rockabilly, kudos, Cyrus. Finally, someone who seems to understand percent increased verse base numbers and explained it well.

And so kudos to you, Cyrus. And one final one for Alex. A group of, this is from Brian, a group of officials from, from the oil and gas industry based in Aberdeen had a meeting with Rachel Reeves on Wednesday in London to reduce a 7% tax rate, which is killing North Sea production, whether it has any positive effect, who knows, but there may be something happening in the next couple of weeks regarding oil and gas in the North Sea. Your thoughts? Well, it depends what their production costs are. I mean, the United States is pretty much taken out the biggest boy that has some of the cheapest gas on the market right now. And they didn't figure it out that this is going to hit their financial markets big time. And it will happen. It's happening today.

It will happen tomorrow. It'll happen Monday until this is over. Where it's going to stop, nobody knows. But if I was a guessing guy, if this continues to drag on for months, well, well, well, over $100 a barrel. And we have an energy crisis in biblical proportions. Before I go, I just wanted to thank you, gentlemen, for having Cyrus and I on. We look forward to having you guys. We'll bear the stress of running the live stream next time.

And we'll have you guys on a live stream on our channel. We love having these live streams with you guys. It's an honor, true honor. Thank you. It'll be a huge pleasure. Yeah, it's been a great live stream. Once again, I have Alex's information in the description box down below. I have Cyrus's information in the description box down below.

And I will add it as a pinned comment as well. Gentlemen, thank you so much for joining us, a fantastic live stream. Thank you. Thank you so much, gentlemen. I appreciate the invitation and chatting about our world. Always fascinating when the four of us get together. Thank you, gentlemen. Let's do it again. Let's do it again soon. Thank you, Cyrus. Thank you, Alex. I care. Three men with Alexander as their namesake and one man named after Cyrus, the Persian king. A very great king, by the way, a very, very great man. And for those who don't know, the man who let the Jewish people return

to their homeland where they built the second temple, just to say. All right. Alexander, should we go through the remainder of the questions? Absolutely, absolutely. All right, from Adeo,

new member to the drag community. Thank you, Adeo. Chunky Monkey 329 says, what happens if the Middle East is unable to keep investing dollars into the AI bubble? They are already signs Open AI is struggling with enough cash.

That's an excellent question, and that's perhaps a question which it would have been nice to ask Cyrus and Alex. I'm not the best person to answer that one. But my own guesses, my own senses, that the longer this war goes on, the more problems like that will have to be asked and the more problems we're going to see. Usually, I'm somebody who believes that the global economy is, is able to absorb shocks quite well. It's huge, after all.

But this war is different, and I thought the same about the Russia-Ukraine war. I felt that that was going to have severe impact on the global economy, which it has done. And this is going to have the same effect, too. The longer it continues, the more the damage is going to be done. Yeah, a lot of damage is going to be done and is being done. A lot. Nico says, in Russia, Medvedev, Narushkin and Putin said the right things,

condemning the U.S. and Israel, but Lavrov and Peskov gave some very bizarre addresses. They both condemned the Iran war, but at the same time mentioned negotiations and Alaska. Even Putin isn't interested in that. Can you interpret this? I think that what we're looking at in Russia is a recalibration. At the moment, if you're talking about,

about Alaska, Abu Dhabi, Geneva, all of that. Nobody's talking about this anymore in Russia. Nobody seriously is. There was supposed to be more negotiations and new meeting in Abu Dhabi. Nobody's talking about a meeting in Abu Dhabi now, obviously. Nobody's talking about any kind of meeting at all. At the moment, the major focus of the Russians is to position themselves so that they can find a way when the situation in the Middle East ripens to act as the party that everybody talks to and is able to broker some kind of ceasefire. So that's the priority of Russian diplomacy at this particular time.

And Pezschkhan, the Iranian president, actually said that the Iran is receiving help from some countries, they're offering themselves as mediators, and it's not difficult to guess which ones those are. Haroko, thank you for that super chat. Matthew says, are we looking at mass job losses in the UK? Yes. Well, I mean, they were really happening even before this conflict started. The UK is in no position to absorb a huge spike in energy prices. Anybody who knows the situation here will know how bad the situation is. And by the way, and going back to that question about tax relief for you, North Sea oil exploration,

the first thing to say is, at best, if that were to happen, it would produce effects five, ten years from now. That's the first thing to say. it's not going to happen, not because of green policies or anything of that kind. It's because of the general economic malaise in Britain makes big projects like that impossible. From Alex, war was invented so Americans can learn geography. The Epstein Coalition is added again. Indeed, so, yeah, that's a very good point, actually.

Very, very well said. From Nikos, the amount of whitewashing in this war is disgusting from usual suspects. like Pierce Morgan to suppose independence like Mario choose a side. Well, indeed, absolutely. I mean, I think that on this conflict, I would really, there is no ambiguity at all. As I said many times, as we've said many times, there was no reason to attack Iran. Iran wasn't attacking anybody. It wasn't at war with anybody.

Its nuclear program was, according to Trump himself, in pieces. Why start a war now when the Iranians were making serious and rational proposals which could have been developed and taken further? The concession of zero enrichment. That's what Oman actually said, the mediators. They went all the way to zero enrichment. And still, it wasn't enough. It wasn't enough.

Raphael says, guys, I'm so proud of you. Keep it up. Thank you, Raphael. Thank you for support. Thank you so much. Lord Khadu, thank you for that. Super chat. Zissi Karayani, thank you for that super sticker. Nico says, I realized the U.S. switches between the Democrats like Obama and Blinken,

who are sociopaths and Republicans, like Graham and Hexeth, who are psychopaths and psychopaths. Well, I've been counted many of them. I'm not here to make diagnoses from a distance, but there is an incredible belligerence within the American political class. John Hirschimmer once said that to me. He said this to me directly. You underestimate how belligerent the American political elite actually are. And he's right.

And, you know, going back to my point about Germany, that was the point I was actually making. From about the 1890s, the Germans started to talk about Weltpolitik, global policy, about Germany having the right to involve itself in everything everywhere, even the situation in Southern Africa, for example, and of the Germans becoming unbelievably belligerent and willing to use force and moving towards a cruise. very crude system, very arrogantly expressed of power politics and might is right

philosophies and of course the United States of that period which avoided conflicts on the contrary developed alternative ideas oh alternative body of legal and strategic thinking which looked to preserve trade emphasize economic and seek to ensure peace. So that was the point I was making. Well, if you listened to Hegset's speech yesterday, and even, well, two days ago, and even the one yesterday, incredibly belligerent, actually quite shocking.

Socking. What's coming out of his mouth. Absolutely. Raphael says, one simple question for you all. Is Putin and Lavrov working in cohort with the West? They both turned out, but they both turned out, into snakes laying on the ground. Well, obviously not.

The idea that Putin and Lavrov are acting on the sides of the West here is most extraordinary. If we're talking about Iran, as I said, they both describe the war, the attack on Iran, as aggression. That's a very clear statement. Putin talked about the killing of Khamenei. as cynical. And Arachi gave an interview to the American media yesterday, in which, I mean, he basically dropped a pretty heavy hint

that Iran is indeed getting help from the Russians. So, I mean, I just don't see this at all. I mean, nothing about the way Putin had Lavrov conduct foreign policy suggests anything like that to me. Arcane Eclictic says, heard the Gulf states threatening to pull AI funds. Yeah, they're threatening to pull funds. It's a message to Trump, wrap it up.

Absolutely, yes. I mean, their message is muggled. I mean, did they want more war or do they want more peace? I think they themselves don't know what to do. Well, it's what we said in our video yesterday, Alexander. Unfortunately, their strategy, the European strategy, and I take it many of the Gulf states, their strategy is to speed up victory. They believe victory is what the U.S. is going to get.

and they're saying speed it up. Absolutely. But what if they're not hitting on a trajectory of victory? That's the problem. I mean, very similar to Ukraine. It really does remind me of Ukraine and Biden and what he sold the Europeans on with Russia. We're going to collapse the Russian economy in three months.

Don't worry about it. You're going to take a hit for a couple of months, but eventually we're going to get that regime change of Putin and then you guys can enter Russia and pillage and plunder all you want. Exactly. It didn't work out like that. You've described it exactly, right. The hockey goalie says, are we analyzing this war through the wrong lens?

Hexeth comments on building the third temple commander saying Trump, anointed by Jesus and neocon positioning of war as bringing Armageddon. They sound like a Christian Taliban. Well, I think Alex just already said this is extraordinarily disturbing language. I mean, as a Christian, I should say myself, I simply don't recognize this rhetoric as having anything to do with my own understandings of my own faith. But I mean, put all that aside.

I mean, it seems to me absolutely terrible language. I mean, using this kind of apocalyptic language to describe what ought to be a political confrontation. I find it very disturbing. Lord Kydew, thank you for that super sticker. Alexanderg, Alexander, says Trump regime, including military leaders, trying to fulfill prophecies about Armageddon, Third Temple and Messiah. Any thoughts? Well, I mean, I think this is the moment you call in the men with the white coats.

That's my feeling about it. Real, real brother, G.G. USA is trapped. FBC events. Thank you for joining the draft community. Nico says it's official Vladimir Putin signed a decree to increase the RAF to 2.4 million personnel. That's half of what the USSR had in 1985 with modern weaponry. The Soviet Union is a completely different place from Russia. So obviously there is a fundamental difference. I would point something else, which is, of course, the Soviet army, the Soviet military was based on conscription.

It was a conscription military, which inevitably made it possible to become very big. The Russian military today is a mix of volunteer and conscription forces. So that changes its character completely and altogether. By the way, the Russian military wasn't always pure conscription. The Red Army in the 1920s, just for history, historical knowledge, was very small. Vilmath Thomas says America is creating wars everywhere, solely for American billionaire oligarchs, and not for the country and the American people. Your thoughts.

Well, that's right. Exactly right. And again, this is where talking about pre-World War I, Germany, Germany. This again reminds me an awful lot of that. I know all about that because I studied that period intimately. I spent a huge amount of time studying the origins of the First World War. And I did deep courses on German history and German politics at that time. And as you all know, I know Germany very well. Rafael says, All I know is soon or later, Putin's going to lose all credibility. People are going to see him

for the Boris Yeltsin. He is a corrupt and compromised leader. China soon is going to realize Putin is a snake. Well, I mean, I think I've already answered that question. I don't think this bears any relation to any of the reality that I see. Yeah. Achriman, thank you for that super sticker.

Finland gifted one Duran membership. Thank you for that. Blop-Zoop says, how can Iran leverage this situation to help its economy regarding sanctions, isolation, under-investment, etc.? Well, it has to win the war. I mean, that is the political conclusion that the Iranians took last year. They understood that a war was coming. They understood that the situation was unwinnable for them if they simply continue to agree to cease

fires. So they took a decision that they would wage a long war, exhaust the United States, and hoped that at the end of that, they would be in a much stronger position than the one that they were in previously. That is their calculation. We've discussed it in many programs. There's been articles about it, even in the media in Britain. Joe Mann is a new member to the drag community. Ginger Dingo, thank you for that super sticker. ancient Britain Blue Warriors says how is that

how is it that World War III looking guys from another Alexander Well I don't think we are in World War III I mean I know people talk about this all the time What we are in is a period of

extreme tension between the great powers in which one particular great power the United States disastrously is involving itself and conflicts in many places as it tries to, as it thinks, secure its position. I think this is a disastrous approach,

and I think it could lead conceivably to a world war, but we are not there yet. Alexander, what are your thoughts on the Wall Street Journal article, which says that's Bessent, is going to request of China to drop Russian oil and to buy American? Yes. Will the Chinese agree? Again, I mean, they've just had to let India buy Russian oil.

I saw the headline and I just had to ask. I mean, they've already asked that before. They've said this to the Chinese before. Why would the Chinese, I mean, the Chinese would be completely out of their senses if they were to agree to something like this. Was Besson thinking the Trump White House strategy, was it thinking that they would have collapsed Iran already? And with Venezuela and Iran,

they were going to meet with Beijing with all of this leverage. Because Trump is always constantly looking for leverage. He's obsessed with trying to gain leverage. Yes. Was the strategy by the time we arrived to April and we're heading to Beijing? we're going to have all these wins and we'll be able to exert our leverage over China.

That is exactly what they thought. In reality, if they'd achieved all of these wins, if they achieve all of these wins, it is still going to make the Chinese continue to buy oil from Russia. The Chinese are not going to allow the United States

to gain this kind of leverage over them. Nico says question, what is Modi thinking? A poll showed that 95% of India mourns Hamene. Why is he helping the US? He is tanking worse than the Russians in PR. Well, if I may say so, I understand that there has been an extremely negative reaction amongst the Indian public, or at least shall we say the Indian political public, which is only a percentage of India's enormous population.

But they're not happy at all with Modi's reaction to the sinking of the Iranian frigate. The Iranian frigate came to India at India's invitation to participate in a naval exercise. It was returning home and on this way home it was sunk by the United States. by the U.S. Navy. And many people in India feel that India should have protested that and come out and spoken out strongly against it. And there is apparently considerable anger with Modi in India that he hasn't said anything. Iranian Kido says China Daily government-run website reported on March 2nd that foreign ministry spokesman Mao Neng denied finalizing any anti-ship missiles to Iran. Chinese provide morale boost. That's the extent of it.

Well, maybe. I mean, I don't. This is a report from Reuters. The Reuters was saying that there was an agreement to sign this agreement. Maybe Reuters was wrong. Hugo Travis says, I enjoy anime-inspired Chinese. Gacha games like Getshin Impact and Honkai Star Rail, unlike Japanese anime, these games actually have a geopolitical dimension. The Chinese are a cosmopolitan people. Yes. Thank you for that. Nathan says, multiple Iraq. Iranian officials have said they have not closed the straight. They suggest it's the insurance market's fault. Is that the case? What is the plan? I've seen many contradictory statements from Iranian officials, and I think they're playing a rather sophisticated game, which is on the one hand, they say that it's not closed, and then in effect they say that it is closed

and then tankers that try to pass through a attack. I don't think that we should look at the statements of these officials are trying to work out a consistent story from them, when you look at the realities. And the reason the insurers are pulling insurance is because they are aware of the fact that any tanker that crosses, bypasses the straits of whom moves, is at serious danger. Ms. Texas G says, what is it that was set on the live stream? Jared is the cryptkeeper, no, the undertaker. Because when he meets with someone in negotiations,

then that person is targeted. It's actually a valid point that Alex made. Yes. Bad for the United States. Oh, I'm excited. So he says, Bricks humiliated because of India, asked Trump for permission to buy

RU oil after bombings and killings in Iran after frigate destroyed in plain sight. Well, I agree. It is not a good look. That is for India's and murdering himself to try to navigate. I doubt that it will do him significant political damage in India itself, by the way. I think that he has quite a lot of support in India, but certainly it is not a good look. Nico says, see young Russians complain about their wages and believe the Western narrative about the war.

Russia can't make their case to them. It's a problem. Georgia is split in half with its younger generation supporting the West, unless the U.S. does an atrocity in Russia, like in Iran, they won't listen. Well, I was in Georgia a couple of months ago, and absolutely that was a funny impression. If I may say so, I mean, again, this is a good example. I went to the parliament building where there were the protests. I counted perhaps 100 people there. And then I came back to London and I had a discussion with somebody.

And he said there wasn't 100 people there. There were about 20,000. And I said, you know, I'm sorry. There were only 100 people there. You must be very, very careful about what you see in these news reports. Of course, people always want higher wages than the wages that they are receiving. But the reality is that in Russia there has been a very, very substantial increase in living standards over the last four years. Ivan says most of us aren't worried about the stock market working class people around the world living constant recession.

We are going to survive. Nonetheless, you should worry about the stock market. If there's a financial crash, if the financial system plows, then it's going to affect everybody rich and poor and poor even more. That was what happened in the 1920s and 30s, and that's what's happened in every big financial crash ever since 2008, being perhaps the most recent example. Nathan says the US and Vietnam was dropping 600 to 1,000 tons of bombs on peak days. That was within the country's bases, not 1,000-kilometer flight missions. What is the U.S.'s plan? I think you're making a very, very good point, actually.

The American bombing campaign of Vietnam, North Vietnam, Rolling Thunder, was in a completely different scale from what we're seeing up to now, even allowing for the very, very heavy bombing of northern Tehran that I discussed in a recent program on my channel. So for the moment at least, the lesson I'm taking from this is that despite what Hegg said, this saying, Iranian air defense systems still retaining certain capability. Wookie Sir says blind spots over China nefarious plans is equal to ignorance.

Inga Pezner, welcome, no, thank you for a super sticker. Darren a levy member to the Duran community. China are the world builders. Thank you for that. From Ruby Appel, thank you to the Duran. Thank you. Tristan, the question about Chinese rail through Pakistan to the Strait of Hormuz. We asked that of Cyrus.

Sparky says, excellent work, very informative. Sparky also says, build a better world with bricks. Thank you, Sparky. Hugo Chavez, the three men plus Cyrus, the Persian king. Okay, thank you for that. Sparky says, go answer Allah, fight the power. A cruncle 5136, it says, great talk, but a future of robots replacing humans isn't good for any civilization. dark factories are a potential misstep.

Well, maybe very much, sir. I have to say that I'm not hugely entranced by that future. But I suspect that one way or the other is coming. And then very, very much the question is how it's done. It can be done in a terrible way, or perhaps it can improve our lives too. Islander 18 says, Alex, I wonder often, how come you are in so many different places, cities, while making your video cast is in it a lot of traveling.

Yes, it is. But it's so I can try to show different places, actually. Yes. That's why I do it. Question from Texas. Gee, what are your thoughts on Hungary taking over armory trucks on the way to Ukraine? Well, it's another sign of the extreme deterioration

in relations between Hungary and Ukraine. But there's something else here, I'm sure, which is that I wonder whether Hungary is getting a green light from the US to do this. I mean, especially given the crisis we have now, I would have thought that the US, assuming that they have any ability to think this thing through at all, must be even more anxious to end the conflict in Ukraine

that they have been up to now, and that they're trying to put pressure on the Ukrainians through whatever way they can. Gloria says Trump is checkmated. Well, be careful. I mean, at the moment, it looks as if things are not going well. But there's still this big question mark about Iran itself. How long can Iran sustain the war?

We know a great deal about what's the situation in the West. in the United States because we live here. What is going on inside Iran, that is less clear to me. Do you believe the Israeli report, which says that they're going to now downshift the campaigns, the bombing campaigns? Well, I read that's from one source only. Yes, it's from one source. Still, an Israeli source.

Yeah, it's an Israeli source. State media of Israel. Yes. Well, you see, this is it may be. it may be misinformation, but if it is the case, then it makes a kind of sense. If the military resources are beginning to run down and they're in a long war, they want to husband their resources because they don't want to be left with nothing. So it could be that this whole conflict metastasizes into a very, very long conflict with missile and bomb and drone exchanges happening at a much lower level than we have seen up to now.

But by the way, that is a disaster because what will then continue to be the case is that the Straits of Hormuz will remain shut. I don't believe the Iranians are going to open the straits of Cornwallmuse until fighting has completely ended. And, well, you heard what are two guests and to say about that. G.B. of arms says, I love that Thai Mercuris. Is China going to stop exporting rare earth minerals? I really hope we see China become more active in defense of Iran. I saw a report saying that they have actually done so. But it was on social media. rather than in any official place. I wouldn't be surprised them.

My cat's 1913 says, awesome analysis, guys. Thank you for that. Amos Burden says U.S. failed to protect GCC. Japan and SKR must seriously rethink China and DPRK can be good partners and good neighbors, not enemy. I am tired of the empire. Well, I think we all are. But, I mean, it's absolutely true.

The Gulf states, I think this has been a shattering week for them. I think that they never imagined that they would be here. Their entire premise was that they were the oasis, the peaceful oasis in the desert that would bloom and it would do so under the protection of the United States. And now, on the contrary, it looks as if that whole dream, was just that a dream. And at the moment, I don't think they really know what to do. Lauren Vega, thank you for that super sticker.

Elza says the US knocked out an Iranian ship going to India and humiliated Modi right after Modi visited Israel. What's the mood in India now? Well, I think I've discussed this in already. I mean, I think we must be very careful not to mistake the very strong reaction from parts of the Indian political, you know, the political community with those of the bulk of the Indian people. But overall, it does look as if there's a lot of people in India are very upset with Modi. Reaper Actual says, what happened with the Kurds?

Right, a good point. I'm a very good question. I was reading, I was reading an set of articles about this. morning one was actually published yesterday and it said that Barzani who is the leader or at least the self-appointed leader or at least the nominal leader of the Iraqi Kurds actually spoke with Arakshi on Wednesday, Arachshu is the Iranian Foreign Minister and assured him that the Kurds will not be participating in any military operation against Iran and the two of them had a discussion about how to secure the borders. And of course, if you know anything about Barzani,

you will know that he is one of the most cunning, deceitful, duplicitous individuals in the Middle East, and that's saying something. So maybe you shouldn't place a huge amount of weight on that. But having said that, that is what he said. Now, I also read another article in the Daily Telegraph, which is a fervidly pro-war, pro-Israel, anti-Iran newspaper. And it said, based on experts from the Royal United Services Institute in

Britain, that the Kurds cannot actually by themselves threaten Iran, that if it came to it, they could perhaps commit a force of between a couple of hundred to 1500 men to bring about an attack on Iran. Now, obviously, that is nowhere dear enough to take on the entire Iranian military. So it seems to me that if there's going to be an attack by the Kurds on Iran, that will only really happen. It will only begin to gain traction if we see splits within the Iranian leadership. It comes back to the question of the stability, the internal stability of Iran. But for the moment, at least, it looks as if this threat from the Kurds has been overstating. Alex says how long would it take for the US to recruit equipment and deploy sufficient troops for a full-scale invasion?

Again, I'm not an expert in these matters, but I've read from both American and Russian logistics people that it will take a very, very long time. I mean, it took the United States six months after Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait to build up enough forces in the Middle East to conduct a ground invasion of Iraq. And Iraq is a quarter of the size of Iran and has a far smaller population and a far smaller military had a far smaller population and military. and it didn't have Iran's enormously complex and difficult geography. Or, by the way, this is the other thing to say about Iran, Iran's industrial base and Iran's highly educated population

because Iran's population today is very well educated. And of course, Iran also had potential backing from the other big states, Russia, China. We've discussed this already in this program. So if it took that long to put together an invasion force against Saddam Hussein's Iraq, I guess it would take much longer than that to do the same in an operation against Iran. And the logistics of it, I look terrible, by the way. But what basis?

Where? What basis? From where? Exactly. From where? Yeah. From where? Zaryl says, nothing's ever enough for the greedy, prideful scum.

Yeah. that girl Casey says so happy to finally catch a live stream this is a great panel with realistic analysis of this war and everything else surrounding it much better than what the Trump administration is saying thank you thank you for that raphael says Alexander in 1970 after india won against pakistan USA brought a fleet to fight india Russia alone met them in open sea and forced them to turn around why Russia is no longer doing things like that anymore. Well, for Iran. Russia might be doing lots of things for Iran, which we don't know about. I was there, when I say I was there, I remember the war between India and Pakistan in 1971 very, very well.

I remember there was wall-to-wall coverage in Britain of it, because obviously Britain had a very strong connection with these countries. it was still the, it had just recently been the colonial power. And I can tell you for an absolute fact that we didn't know about the extent of Soviet intervention on India's side until many years after the war had ended. Just saying. Jeremy says, who is like the beast who can wage war against it? That's a quote.

Who is like the beast who can wage war against it? I think it's from apocalypse, isn't it? Yeah. Iranian kiddo says there seems to be a lot of. confusion about Kurdish groups in Iraq, it's important to clarify that these are not Kurds from Iraq. They are Iranian Kurdish groups inside Iraq. Iranians designate them as terrorist organizations. Yes, yes, yes. That's absolutely true. And just to say again, and I think Iranian kiddo, you agree with me here. My understanding is that the Iranian Kurdish community

as a whole is fairly well integrated in Iranian society. So there are dissident groups which are based in Iraqi Kurdistan, but they are not representative of the wide mass of Kurds in Iran itself. Take a pick. 1313 says, could the money powers use this war as the excuse to crash the U.S. and European economy and blame the war instead of making people to look at them as in 1929? Well, possibly, but it's the point I always make in relation to these theories. If these people really think that, that they have completely taken leave of their senses.

Because what they're doing is they're sowing the storm, and they're going to reap the whirlwind, which is going to blow them away. I mean, they themselves will be the first people to be blown away by such a storm. Jeff Files says, can you? set up a quick survey in the chat to see how many people believe these wars are about the Epstein files. I didn't have to do that. Let me see to set that up.

I guess I'll try if I have a minute or two. Iranian kiddo says there are four terrorist groups operating in Erbil and Solomani Manilla with a combined total of 4,000 to 8,000 fighters. The most powerful is PJAK, an offshoot of the PKK classified as a terrorist organization by Iran and Turkey. You will indeed. I mean, the idea that Erdogan would see that that might explain, by the way, by Barzani is negative about this whole operation because Barzani, this is the Middle

East. They may surprise people that a Kurdish leader is on good terms with Erdogan, but he is. He's apparently very, very friendly with Erdogan. And Erdogan would not want anything of no, no, no, no, he's. connected to the PKK, establishing bases in Iran itself. Maria, thank you for that super chat. J.M. Wood says, what are your thoughts of Stammer withholding involvement from this Iran operation? He's got the shadow of Tony Blair and Iraq hanging over him.

And apparently there was a massive row in the British cabinet over it. and Edward Milliband, Yvette Cooper, Rachel Reeves, and one other person all spoke out against it. So he faces a lot of opposition within the cabinet. I still think that left to Stama himself, he would be joining in, and eventually he might still, just as that. The rounding kiddo says PJ AK is the most dangerous group with about 1,000 to sit to 3,000 fighters, making them by far the most trained. They hide in the Kandil Mountains east of Erbil, close to the border.

I wonder whether this is the group that the Daily Telegraph was talking about, a group that has a force of between extending between several hundred fighters and 1,500 fighters. It also spoke about the fact that these people are well trained and have had connections with Israel and the United States. Running, Kiro says the PCHAA. stated they won't join. The other three groups indicated they would, with each having a maximum of 1,000 fighters, but we are talking about lightly armed groups on foot in the mountains. Well, there you go. Elza says, if Kushner is the undertaker, who is Whitkoff? Is he just a dummy?

If not, he's used badly, but then he should speak out or quit. Well, I think Whitkoff is completely out of his depth. I do think he understands very much about Ukraine, Russia, that conflict. And I think he understands. he understands even less about Iran. He's never been there for one thing. Yeah. One, two, three, for a fight says, what happens when everyone else starts playing by the new rules that Trump has set?

Is Zelensky in danger? Well, I think Ukraine is in danger. There was a very, very agitated article by Anato Levin, by the way, in which he said, you know, that this is, this war isn't made a betrayal of Ukraine because Ukraine can't get weapons. and Putin is going to get lost of money, and this is going to increase the possibility, the probability of Ukraine falling. Well, there we go.

Carol Andrews, thank for that super sticker. Sparky says, onward Christian soldiers marching us to war with the cross of Jesus going on before. Hegset sings this, not realizing it's a metaphor for Christians going forth to spread, spread the gospel, not war. Absolutely. It's marching as to war, not marching to war. Very, very different. Iranian kiddo says, so unless they can take on Iran with 3,000 fighters, then they should be the best fighters ever. If those reports are true, then the U.S. is using the Kurds as a Trojan

horse to enter its ground forces. Well, maybe. I don't think it's the U.S. ground forces themselves. I think, because I don't think there are enough U.S. ground forces in the area to do that. I think what this is all about is creating fractures within Iran and hoping that, you know, pressure from the Kurds is going to lead to some kind of crisis, internal crisis in Iran itself. I also said that I also read an article that said, again in the British media, that said that the United States doesn't actually have much intelligence itself. from inside Iran. There's no US embassy there, for example.

So they don't have a big network of informers. They depend entirely on what the Israelis tell them. And of course, the Israelis have their own perspectives and objectives in this war. And they might not be telling the Americans exactly what the real situation inside Iran is. W. Life's W. W. Life's Wanderings says,

It is obvious who was responsible for the event in New York 25 years ago. At least it is to me. Thank you for that. Elsa says, I've realized that all my family and friends in and outside Moscow and Omsk, a Siberian city, owned their homes. Most of them are middle-income families. Yes, it's true.

Rastair also has very, very high levels of home ownership. The Alchemist says, Alex, my father was once involved with the PDKI and the leader in D.C., but he later left. Some still try recruiting Kurds here and in Iran, yet my tribe in Iran declined. Well, there you go. Iranian Kido says to compare in September of 1980 when Saddam captured Krahar-K-Kzstan City had two tanks. Military wasn't mobilized.

IRGC was barely existent and there were 10,000 active MEC and up to 30,000 Kurdish militias called KDPI in Iran. Well, indeed, at the army, the military, the Iranian military, was in chaos because, of course, it had been created by the Shah and had previously been loyal to him. And many of the officers were previously loyal to him. And he'd just been deposed a year before. And there was massive confusion and uncertainty as to how to respond. So we are talking about a completely different Iran from that time as compared to the Iran today. Samuel Moroni says Will Russia maintain 2.3 million

AF in peacetime? Possibly. W. Life's Wandering. Thank you for that super sticker. Meda Licka says, are we seeing the evil of USA from the Middle East? Well, I think many people in the Middle East would say that we are. Muhammad

Kari says, great show, guys. What do you make of the news of six U.S. major banks closing their positions on Argentina? Will Argentina default? Again, will Argentina be the first victim of the Middle East wars? You know, I have not followed this story. This is the first I've heard of that. And obviously, that is interesting and important. And it's absolutely something I get to go away after this program and get to know an awful lot more about. Thank you for letting me know. I do nothing about it.

But given that I know nothing more, I'm not going to comment on it now. Iran and Kido says, shame on the government of Iran for allowing these groups to coexist along our borders. they need to do what Turkey did, and that's creating buffer zone. Brazani has little control over these groups. Bozoni is one of the most corrupt and as a duplicative people in the Middle East. Maybe that's what the Iranians are going to do. There are so many things, so many comments you can make about the way in which the Iranian government has handled matters up to now. And I'm not going to repeat them at this.

The alchemist says, Barzani are current to... their core. Yeah. Alex says if a few hundred Kurds invade Iran could just send the police to arrest them. Yeah, that's the famous quote from Bismar, that he was asked, what is the British invade Pomerania? What will you do? And he said, I'll send the police into arrest them. In Manatee says, can you speak about the missiles from Iran? Well, I'm not a technical person. I mean, Iran clearly has a lot of large arsenal of missiles and a large arsenal of many different types of missiles, and some of them look very sophisticated. And I get the sense that the air defense systems are not really well

structured in order to shoot them down. Ted Postel says that the air defense missile interceptors cannot shoot them down. But there is another thing that's happened, and this is all over social media now, and not just a bit other places you can find. which is that apparently the Iranians have been select systematically targeting and destroying American early warning radars right across the Middle East, and that this has been one of the major objectives of their campaign, and that this reduces American radar coverage of over Iranian missile launches, which gives the Americans and the Israelis far less warning time of these radars or indeed of the incoming drones.

Zareel says, is there any confirmed situation as to where Netanyahu really is? His plane was spotted ATW on Berlin on Saturday. Has he been seen since? Well, no, I haven't seen him. I don't spend my time tracking where Netanyahu is. one thing I can say is wherever he is, he's making sure that he's saved. That is the one certainty I can make about Netanyahu. Ms. Texas G says, what are your thoughts on President Trump stating in the past hour he wants on conditional surrender from Iran? He said this during the June

2025 war as well. And I remember being quite shocked about it. He can say these things. Can he achieve them? That is the real thing. He's been saying extraordinary things. He said even more bizarrely that he wanted to be the person who selects Iran's leader. He said that the decision should be made by him. Democracy. Absolutely. Trump-style democracy, Trump style. Al-Tanam says oil price skyrocketing today just hit $90 per barrel.

It was $56 two months ago. Well, can I just say Trump said that thing about unconditional surrender, exactly. at the moment in last June, when it looked as if the Straits of Hormuz were about to close. And it was, or so it seemed to me at the time, a sign of panic. Perhaps he's panicking now. Zaharias, she says, I'm 100% sure this crisis was deliberately engineered by the U.S. From the U.A. war to Nord Stream to Drozba and the now Hormuz. Well, probably every one of these wars have been deliberately engineered by the US, whether they form part of a single plan, that I think is an altogether different question.

I get the sense that there is a constant current of people in the US, the neocons, who want confrontation and war all the time. and they are always agitating and demanding confrontation and war. I don't myself get the sense that they really plan it out very, in much detail previously. Samuel Moroni says, do we know the real reason behind Iraq 2003? No, they've never been a proper reason. I mean, many people talk about oil, that it was all about oil. Alan Greenspancer said it was all about oil. I think that, again, the idea was get rid of Saddam Hussein,

that will then establish a dominant position for the United States permanently in the Middle East. It will secure Israel's long-term security. I think there were all sorts of nebulous and other ideas playing out as well. But I think ultimately, again, it was this year. yearning to demonstrate American military power, to demonstrate his and to use it. What was it that Madeline Albright said to Colin Powell? What's the point of this wonderful military if we're never going to use it? Guru Agetch says, why doesn't China take back Taiwan while America is losing in Iran?

Well, first of all, America hasn't get lost in Iran. But secondly, doesn't it work better to China? advantage, to wait, to let the Americans deplete themselves, to perhaps undermine their economy, to run down their fleet. Why, why Rush? Iranian, Kido says Kurds from Iraq fought along Iran against Saddam in the 80s. At the same time after revolution, there were active Kurdish militias in Iran called KDPI in response to the rise of Shia theocracy, no less than 20,000 to 30,000 fighters.

Yeah. Monty 1054 says, wasn't the dominance of the dollar dependent to a large extent to the Japanese yen? Isn't there a big risk of the dollar collapsing if Japan's economy starts to buckle because of the war against Iran? You know, you're making a very, very good point that the trade, that what used to happen was that because the yen, the Japanese central bank kept interest rates very, very, very low. low. People borrowed in yen and used yen to buy dollars. And that supported the dollar. And it also supported the trade in treasuries. I don't know where we are with that now. But again, you are highlighting another point, going back to what Alex was saying earlier in the program, about how all of this could play up very, very badly for the financial system.

Paulie says, did Lloyds of London lose its top position in maritime insurance due to the U.S. around war? Thank you both. No, I think it's already lost its position, its dominant position in the maritime market some time ago. It's still very important in the oil trade, as I happen to know. But it's not the only insurance. Elsa says, wow, what a week. The Green Goblin was not top news. No, I know quite.

He was not. He's deep frustration, bug. Yeah, he's very angry about it. He's very angry about it. The Alchemist gifted five Duran memberships. Thank you, Alchemist, for that. Kendall Brown says from Atlanta, Georgia, USA, join police, don't join Army, have the people in place. Elites want civil war.

Thanks for that. Peter says, Brill, as always from the legendary Duran. Brilliant as art. Thank you, Peter, for that. Uttis says, these wars. are planned in Israel or by Israeli agents in America, see the clean break memo and the biographies of those that write it. I look at it.

You know the clean break. Yeah. Okay. Most supply estimates for U.S. counterfeasures assume 120 average launches a day. If we're getting like 600 launches a day, we're burning five-day supplies every night. Absolutely. And spending apparently a billion dollars a day on this operation. Just a second. One second, Alexander, I think that's everything. Your final thoughts? As I just do a final check.

On that last point, the United States could spend a billion dollars a day, but of course it continues for a hundred days. That's $100 billion. That is a significant sum. even for the United States. It's about a tenth of the U.S. defense budget, just saying. The Pentagon has a budget of a trillion dollars, and it's looking for more money. Well, indeed. Where did the trillion dollars go? Well, indeed, quite so.

But at some point, they're going to have to go back to Congress to get another authorization if this continues for much longer. And the votes over the resolution in Congress were fairly tight. I mean, they weren't very tight, but they were fairly tight. I wonder whether getting a authorization would be very easy. Just saying. A skyman says, I think BB got popped.

And double triple down says King Leonidas passing inspired defiance, Malon Lave. Well, indeed, you. Alexander, that is everything. I will have the answers to the Q&A from Wednesdays live stream that will be up in about an hour so keep an eye on that and thank you

once again to Cyrus and Alex and I have their information in the description box I will also add it as a pinned comment and I think that that is it Alexander for this show thank you to everyone that watched us on all the platforms thank you to our

moderators Harry Zareel inside Russia inside business Russia and I think I think those are our moderators for today so thank you to everyone that watched us

on Locals, on Rumble, on Odyssey and on YouTube the durand.orgals.com. We're also on substack. Also check out Alexandra's channel. Alexander McCurce. Check out my channel. Alex Christopheru. Share, subscribe. All the good things.

Jimmy's Yidos says awesome, awesome one work. As always, Jets. Jimmy, I think I'm going to, I'm going to grab a Yudo for tonight's dinner as well. No joke. No joke, Jimmy. Jimmy's Yos. No joke. You got me thinking. All right, take care, everybody. We'll have videos up very soon.