The Duran Podcast - Iran's war of nerves with neocons

Episode Date: August 10, 2024

Iran's war of nerves with neocons

All right, Alexander, let's talk about what is happening in the Middle East and Iran's impending retaliation. The news, the narrative, if you believe it, I imagine, well, I'll let you answer. I was going to say, I imagine you don't believe it. But if you believe it, from the United States and from the collective West media, they are saying that they are actually making some headway in convincing Iran to, to moderate, to lessen its retaliation. This is what they are reporting, that U.S. diplomacy, it's a carrot and stick diplomacy. They're using some carrot, but they're also using some stick and saying, if you attack Israel,

then we're going to get involved. So they're doing everything they can, according to the collective Westmead, this is not me. This is the media, CNN, and droiders and all of these outlets, Politico, did a big piece on this. they are saying that according to their sources, they feel that they are making progress in convincing Iran not to retaliate in a manner that that would be deemed as heavy, excessive to lead to a big wider war, let's say. What do you make of these reports and what do you think is going to happen within the next few days? well the first thing to say is that i don't know what the iranians and the americans have been saying to each other and you know what i'm going to say now is my own sense of the situation i i think these reports are either one of two things wishful thinking which probably there is a significant dose of it or just possibly

the iranians themselves stringing the americans along now one of the one of the things to say is that over the last couple of days, there were a lot of reports that in Israel and the US, there was a lot of nervousness about what the Iranians were going to do. And there were a lot of fears that, you know, there would be an attack on Israel that would be far more powerful than the one in April. And there were even some reports that some people in Israel were discussing the need for a preemptive strike. on Iran. So given that this is so, it might be the case of the Iranians, you know, stringing the Americans and the Israelis along because they don't want to have preemptive

strikes on themselves. And they need time to prepare. And I think it is the second that is the most important thing. And there are a number of things that are happening, which suggests to me that they are preparing alongside the fact that I have to say, I check the Iranian media, the English language Iranian media. And from where, as far as I can see, there's no softening of the rhetoric of a big retaliation coming at all. I mean, I don't see any sign of it myself. But the Iranians would need time to do three things.

Firstly, to get all the diplomacy sorted out from their side. And there was a big meeting the day before yesterday of the organisation of, Islamic cooperation. It produced a strong statement, very supportive of Iran, various Arab states that historically have been friendly to the United States, like the Saudis, Qatar, Egypt, all of those. They've all signed up to this statement, and they made statements of their own. And I think the Iranians would want that to happen before any attack. by themselves against Israel took place because they want to be able to say that they're acting

on the basis of the support of the entire Islamic world. So they've obtained that. That was one thing. The second is they obviously need to coordinate with the various militias and forces that are their allies across the Middle East, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the various militias in Syria and Iraq. They need to develop plans as to how they're going to respond. And there's been suggestions that some of the missile strikes are going to take place from Lebanon, Syria and Iraq. And if that is correct, it will require time and a certain amount of diplomacy, both to get the missiles in place and to get everybody in those places to agree to their launch and to work out the targets and to discuss the response. But I think the single biggest factor probably in holding the Iranians back is that they need to get their own defenses because there's inevitably going to be an Israeli counterstrike.

They need to get their own defenses in order. And there's already reports that they've been moving material and equipment around Iran, putting it in, you know, more hardened places, doing all of that kind of thing. And of course, we're now getting reports in the New York Times and in other places too that the Russians have been supplying Iran with radars, electronic warfare systems, surface-to-air missiles, very advanced surface-to-air missiles, S-400 missiles, which, to be clear, if they're going to come into operation, they can only be operated by Russian technicians. I mean, Iran won't have had the time to train to use these systems in the short time available. So all of these systems have to be brought into place.

They have to be positioned around the country. They have to be activated. The defences have to be organized. And that takes time too. So the Iranians need time. They would need time anyway if they were. intending to conduct a strike. And given that that is so, it seems to me that why would they not want in that case to play the Americans along? It keeps the Israelis from launching preemptive strikes on

them. It keeps the Americans nervous and off balance. It keeps everybody guessing about what Iran is going to do. It's a war of nervous, if you like. And I think the Iranians probably feel that they're You know, it is in their interest to play. On the Duran, we had an interview, which was published yesterday, with an Iranian academic, Siyadh, Mohamed Marandi. And he actually made the point that Iran is conducting a war of nerves with the West and with Israel specifically. And, you know, that, it seems to me, is very much in line with what they're doing.

that's my own assessment of it. Right. I mean, I've heard statements, including from the new president saying that they are going to retaliate with significant force. I mean, there's going to be a big retaliation. But he has also said that Iran does not want a wider war. They're trying to avoid a big war and a wider war in the Middle East. So how are they going to achieve this? Can they achieve this?

I mean, I believe that this is the goal, that they do want to. avoid a big wider war. They've been wanting to avoid a wider war for years now. So, I mean, they don't want to provoke a big conflict. Yes, all the more so. You're right. No, I was just saying you're right. It does look like they're going to retaliate in a big way. Anyway, how are they going to do this? The thing to understand about the risk of a wider war is that Iran clearly doesn't want it. The Arab states don't want it.

I've come round to the view that the predominant ascendant faction currently in the United States doesn't want it. It doesn't want it for many reasons. It doesn't want a wider war in the Middle East because it would tie up American resources. It might unbalance the US economy. It would create a crisis before the presidential election. So for all of these reasons, the United States at this time, does not want a wider conflict in the Middle East. Some people in the United States do.

Some very powerful and well-connected people in the United States do. But I think the ascendant faction does not. The people, the party... Russia, China? Russia, China do not want a conflict either. I mean, they also do not want a big conflict in the Middle East. In fact, they've been striving to prevent one. The party that wants a wider conflict in the Middle East,

is the current government of Israel. I'm not saying Israel altogether as a country, by the way, because again, there are many different opinions about this, I'm sure, in Israel itself. And it's clear that the military are not keen on a wider war. And we've had reports in the Financial Times of a very fraught and angry meeting between the leaders of the Israeli military and Prime Minister Netanyahu. But Netanyahu clearly does want a wider war. So do some of the hardliners in his government. People like Ben-Gvier and Smartridge, they clearly do want a wider war. And I think what the Iranians are going to be telling the Americans is, look, you're coming to us.

You're telling us always to show restraint. We have shown enormous restraint. if we don't act to demonstrate our capabilities and reinforce our deterrence, then given that the other side, the Netanyahu government clearly does want a war, they will simply go on attacking us as they have done, and eventually a war will become inevitable. will respond if you want to stop a war from escalating out of control it is to the Israelis that you must speak you must tell the Israelis look stop this is where it ends you can't go further um you've provoked

this crisis by assassinating hanir in teheran itself um you brought another iranian retaliation down upon your head. We can't go on protecting you and defending you every time that you come out and carry out another act like, you know, assassinating Hanye, bombing an Iranian embassy building in Damascus and doing things like that. When do you think something might happen? There's a hard question to answer. It's a very hard question. I think it's going to take a little while still, I mean, I don't think that it's going to happen tomorrow over the next couple of days, especially if this is going to be, you know, it might do. I mean, you know, the Iranians always play.

But, you know, it's what I, you know, I can only say what I think. And, you know, bear in mind that, you know, I'm only looking at this on the outside. I don't have all the pieces. Not remotely. I only have a few of them. But I would have thought that the Iranians would need time. I mean, if they really are bringing in all these radars and electronic warfare systems and surface-to-air missile systems from Russia,

then they need time to establish them, to place them in secure locations, to develop an air defence system. And that, at the minimum, I would have thought, even if you assume, as I do, that there will be Russian technicians operating these systems. That is going to take a couple of weeks. Otherwise, you know,

sending all these missiles in a state where they're barely operable is going to simply create targets for the Israeli Air Force. So I would have thought that is what we're looking at. Now, the Israelis, by the way, are aware of all of this and they're starting to act, I think, nervously, and there was a report yesterday that they launched a missile strike against a Syrian base, one where they know Russian troops are stationed. It looks to me as if that was intended as some kind of warning from Israel to Moscow. And that is a sign that we are very much

in the war of nerves. All right. We will end it there. The durand.com. We are on Rombolada, Cepidtube, Telegraph, Rockfin, and TwitterX. And go to E. Duran shop, pick up some t-shirt. shirts like the t-shirts that we are wearing in this video you will find the link in description box down below take care