The Duran Podcast - Is Olaf Scholz on his way out as German Chancellor?

Episode Date: January 7, 2024

Is Olaf Scholz on his way out as German Chancellor? The Duran: Episode 1797

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the rumors. They are just rumors coming out of the German publication built, which claim that Ola Schultz is about to retire, and the defense minister, Historius, is going to take his place. The other report that we could talk about coming out of Germany, which is related to all of this, is the fact that Aevda is on the rise, and the SPD is now openly.

talking about just a blanket cancellation of AFD. Now, the reports are that Schultz is going to retire because of the problems he has domestically in Germany corruption scandals and stuff like that. But I think we all know that most of this is connected to the rise of AFD as well as the conflict in Ukraine and the economy in Germany, and the deindustrialization. And Schultz's very, very low approval ratings. Berbach and Habek are doing no better in their approval ratings either. But what do you make of these rumors from Bill? Well, I don't think that Schultz himself has made a decision to resign.

He doesn't look to me to be that kind of a person. But it is now, I think, increasingly likely that there are more and more people who want him to go. Now, Bill Seitung is a tabloid, not particularly nice newspaper, in my opinion. but it is connected with important people in the German political class. And of course, some of these rumours have been picked up in the wider European media as well. And that suggests that there's now a concerted campaign underway in Germany to try to get Schultz to go. The important thing to understand is that what they're trying to do is they're not trying to change course. They're not going to change the policy with respect to Germany's confrontation with Russia, its support for Ukraine.

Because important to figure, though Schultz himself has been, he is not the ultimate decision maker here. If you want to identify one single individual who probably has been that, it is most plausibly Robert Habek, who is the vice-chancellor. and the effective leader of the Green Party, and who's been making all the key decisions, and of course, who's also Germany's economics minister. And there's no suggestion that Harbeck is going. And the person that has been talked about as taking over from Schultz, is not a sort of person who might actually be interested in changing course.

it is Boris Pistorius, who is the defence minister, who is also a hardliner, somebody even more hardline one suspects on these policies, then Schultz himself, well, certainly than Schultz himself is. So it's not about changing course. It is about dumping a very unpopular captain who is, is heading the ship towards the rocks. But you're not going to change the course of the ship. It's still going to go on heading towards the rocks. What you're going to do is you're going to put in his place, a captain who you hope is going to be a little less unpopular than Schultz's.

And of course, you're not going to say that the reason you're dumping Schultz is because his policies with respect to Russia and Ukraine have been absolutely catastrophic for Germany. You're going to say that it's all because of the Wirecard scandal a few years ago when he was, I think, German economics minister. Everything about Wirecard we've always known about. We've known about Schultz's role. but suddenly, you know, this story, which wasn't important during the election, for example, when the SPD were elected to power and Schultz was leading them, well, this scandal, which wasn't important then, has suddenly, in some mysterious way, become important now. So you resurrect the Wirecard scandal, and you add a Russian twist to it because you claim,

I don't know what with what truth, that the founder of Ryan Wirecard is actually hiding in Moscow somewhere. So, you know, this is all part of the Russian connections as well. So you still say, you know, it's Schultz Moscow, because he's mishandling of that affair. He's mishandling of other affairs. Well, ultimately, it's the Russians who are to blame. And you just continue exactly as you did. You're not solving any of Germany's underlying problems. You'll bind yourself, you hope, a little more time. And what are you going to do with that time since you're not going to change course? Well, you could try calling elections, but then the coalition itself is in a very, very bad state. The free Democrats are at odds with the Greens. The SPD is seeing its popularity collapse. If there were elections tomorrow, it would probably lose its representation in the parliament in Saxony, which would be the first time in its history

that the SPD has failed to obtain representation to a regional parliament, in the parliament of one of the London. So you don't want an election. Firstly, you want to try to recalibrate the German political system. And I'm afraid this is where all these stories and reports about cancelling the IFDA are coming from.

because the IEFTA now has well over 20% of the vote across Germany. It's making big inroads into West Germany. And specifically in Saxony, the region where important cities like Dresden, for example, are located. It is now polling 37%, which is more than the... more than the other leading mainstream parties. I mean, the ESPD is only down to 3% in Saxon. The CDU is down to 32%. So this is, I think, well, this is edging towards bringing Pistorius.

He's connected with the military in some way, at least you hope so because he's been defence minister. He's probably on good terms with the security services. You bring him in. you improve the popularity of the coalition, and then you find some way to deal with the IFDA. Either you knock them down politically, perhaps by confecting some scandal, or if you can't do that, then you ban them. What happens if you ban the Ift in Germany?

I mean, this is not, we're not talking about 5% support here. We're talking about the second most popular party now in all of Germany. Well, in all of Germany and in many parts of Eastern Germany, the most popular party, I think you start the German crisis. I think at that point, the Bundes Republic, which has existed since it was basically set up by the Western Allies in the 1940s, the Bundesrepublic is in crisis. I mean, taking a step like this, taking it blatantly, anti-democratic step, which disenfranchises a fifth of the German population,

and perhaps even a majority of people in Eastern Germany, is going to have huge implications and consequences in the future. And it will begin a process of political destabilization, even as Germany itself continues to de-industrialize. So I think it would be a disastrous move. I don't want to predict immediate responses. I'm not saying that there's going to be insurrections or huge protests or strikes or things like that. I mean, that is not how Germany is.

I mean, Germany remains a very orderly place. But I think that many, many people across Germany will be profoundly shocked. and shocked is too weak a word. And they will feel that the political system in Germany no longer answers to them is no longer representative of German feeling. And we're going to start to see a fundamentally different Germany emerge out of this. Germany took the decision to destroy itself on Project Ukraine. I'm trying to destroy Russia.

Germany is destroying its itself. But, you know, a final question. Why don't they go after Baerbach and Hobbock? I mean, okay, you want to get Schultz to go. To go. I understand that. Fine. But, you know, at the end of the day, everyone understands that Hobbick is running the show

and that Baerbach has become the face of Germany. mean, as terrible as that sounds, as comical as that is, she has become the face of Germany in the world. And that's bad. That's bad for Germany. I don't say that as a compliment because she's perhaps one of the worst foreign ministers I've ever witnessed. But, you know, why don't they deal with this Schultz Green alliance? Because the Greens are not even that powerful of a party. They're not a small party. But they're not as big as the AFTA either. No, absolutely.

Well, why don't they? Well, this is very straightforward answer. Because, of course, going after Haabek and Behrbock would be the clearest, strongest, most open admission that the entire policy that's been followed since February 22 has been a catastrophic mistake. because who in Germany is most identified with those decisions. It is how they can bear book. So, I mean, you know, you don't want to do that because you don't want to open up that whole line of debate. If you do that, you're admitting that the entire German political class

has taken Germany in completely the wrong direction, not just by the way in relations with Russia, but all kinds of other things. I mean, nuclear power, boilers that we've been hearing so much about, all of these other things. So you don't want to do that. The objective of sacking, because that's what it would amount to, all our shorts, is to close debate down. If you start sacking people like Havbeck and Beirbok, you risk opening debate up. And that is the diametric offices of what it is you want to do.

Yeah, but you end up saving Germany. Ah, but of course, you know, we don't, this isn't our major concern because, you know, Germany, let's face it, is this country with this ambiguous history. You mustn't think about that. You must think of values. You must think of Europe. Europe is the real thing you want to say, not Germany. And of course, beyond that, you've also got to preserve the sanctity of the Euro-Atlantic system,

the rules-based international order and the political and economic class in Germany itself that safeguards these things and does so right across Europe itself. So, you know, this is more important. I mean, Germany itself, or to be, to be more precise, the welfare of the German people is less significant. After all, didn't Behrbock herself say as much? Very true. She did say as much.

All right. We will leave it there. I just want to finish. I just want to finish. I just want to finish with one little thing. Of course, if Schultz does go, which I think he probably will very soon, it'll be yet another victim of the Zelensky, the Olensky curse. I think it was you who found it. But it will be the single biggest prize of the Olensky curse up to now.

And I think, you know, everybody else, I mean, we know, we talked about Beerbock and Harbeck and all. the others being safe for the moment. But I think they need to bear that in mind. I mean, this curse has ability to grow and expand and evolve and take in more and more people along its way. Yeah, I have to tell you, Pistorius doesn't seem like a very compelling figure. No, not at all.

From what I've seen, Nafin. She seems marginally, marginally better than Shultz, I would say, as far as character and dynamism. He's not a very dynamic. Oh, he's an absolutely grey figure. Kellogg just also say, of course, that for the SPD of all parties to be advocates of bans and prohibitions on other parties,

is extraordinary to anybody who knows the history of that party. One of the most storied histories of any party in Germany was banned. The SPD itself was banned by Bismarck in the 1880s. in his anti-socialist laws. And of course, it was banned in 1933 when the Mustasio gentleman came to power. And now this party, which always was fighting back against bands,

is becoming an advocate of them. I think it actually is very fitting given the times we live in. Very fitting. That is the case for us. I mean, they're the ones banning now. Absolutely. I mean, the ghosts of SPD leaders past, Liebnecht

and others would be profoundly shocked by what it's being proposed today. But then it isn't the SPD that I once remembered. All right. We will end it there at the durand.local.com. We are on Rumble, odyssey, bitch, telegram,

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