The Duran Podcast - Isolated Putin

Episode Date: December 11, 2023

Isolated Putin The Duran: Episode 1772

All right, Alexander. Let's talk about the isolation of Russian president Vladimir Putin, his trip to the UAE, his trip to Saudi Arabia, Iranian president in Moscow. And to cap it all off, we have the VTB Bank conference. I forgot the name of the event. I think the common good conference or something like that, where Putin talked about a Russian economy. that is in absolute tatters. Let's talk about all of this. Well, indeed, let's let us indeed, because, I mean, let's start with the trip to the Middle East, well, to the Arab Peninsula, first of all. And the first thing to say is that the Arab states, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which he visited in a few weeks' time, are going to be formally joining the Briggs. So this is, he's going to two Bricks.

but will soon be two BRICS member states. And he went there, escorted by his Suhoi 35 fighter jets, with an incredibly strong delegation. So Lavrov, of course, the foreign minister was there. His chief economic advisor Oreshkin was there. His chief foreign policy advisor, Usukov, was there also. But also, along with those, Kadyero, the head of the Chechen government was there.

It was interesting because you don't usually see Kadyerov joining Putin on foreign trips. And that does make me wonder whether Kadyrov has not had a very substantial diplomatic role. It was clear to me that MBS and Kadyrov know each other. You saw the meeting and you could see that they were, the chemistry between the two, and the fact that they were each pleased to see the,

suggests to me that Kadirov has quietly been filling a diplomatic role for the Russians in the Middle East for a long time as well. Anyway, he was there. So were all kinds of, you know, the industry ministers, the head of the investment fund, and central bank chair Nabuleina was there as well. Now, we'll come to her in a moment because I think that is really the clue to what this was principally about. But The other thing to say is that these two Arab states, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, just pulled out the stops. And they were working together clearly. And one could get the sense that this whole trip was incredibly carefully choreographed. So Putin arrives in the UAE in Abu Dhabi. He is met by, you know, he's met by the president of the UAE.

His motorcade goes into this gigantic residence of the presidents in the UAE. It's lined with soldiers, some on horseback, some on camels. There's bands playing, you know, Arab martial music. There's a 21 gun salute. There's planes flying overhead, leaving smoke trails, you know, in the color of the Russian flag. I mean, he is greeted to the UAE, which is the gateway to the Arabian Peninsula, as a sort of conquering hero as an arriving emperor. And it's quite remarkable to see the pictures of this,

the sheer pomp and circumstance and ceremony of it. And when he arrives in Riyadh, the king of Saudi Arabia, King Salman is himself there. to greet Putin at the airport. That is apparently very, very unusual. He then is met by MBS. It's all smiles. There's clearly huge amount of friendship and goodwill amongst all of these people.

And that then brings us to what they were clearly discussing because I said that Saudi Arabia and the Emirates are about to join the bricks. Nebula is there. There's lots of discussion. about economic matters, about investments, by the Saudis and the Emirates and the Russian economy, about the Russians build the nuclear power stations in Saudi Arabia

about technology and industrial investment and trade, and of course, oil, and there's an announcement about, you know, they're going to work even more closely on oil matters. But Nebulae's presence tells you that a key part of this discussion must be the setting up of the new. payment system, the new bricks payment system for the future of the oil trade, because why else would you bring your central bank chair if not to discuss something like that? And that's clearly what this whole discussion was, I don't see, it was principally about, but it was one of the things

that he was mostly about. It's huge news. Oh, it's absolutely huge news. If you're the United States and you're looking at this, you're probably, you know, just wondering. I would hope that you're wondering, where did it all go wrong? But I doubt they're saying that. Well, there should be this.

You are pretty worried if you're watching this. Well, absolutely. I mean, bear in mind that Saudi Arabia and the UAE are long, historic American allies. and of course throughout the Cold War they were very strong

opponents of the Soviet Union I mean they didn't even have diplomatic relations with the Sohoiet Union and now you see the Russian President been greeted in a way that is incredibly you know all this ceremony

and all this friendship and all these smiles and all this delight to see him and allowing him to enter the airspace of these countries escorted by Russian fighter jets. I mean, it demonstrates how strong the relationship between the Arab states, the Arab states, these Dolf Monarchies, and Russia now is. It's clear that for the Saudis and for the Emirates, the relationship with Russia and in the BRIC states, is now paramount.

And I could trust that with what happened a few weeks ago, when Blinkin, came to Riyadh, during the start of the Gaza crisis, wanted to speak to NBS, and NBS kept him waiting a whole night long before he condescended to meet with him. So the contrast between that visit and this one is astonishing. And given that they are clearly talking about payment systems, that ought to be a massive, alarm bell for the United States. Okay, so UAE, Saudi Arabia, and then we have Iran in Moscow. Which of course, notice, which of course, before we go on to that meeting in itself, notice of course that the Saudis and the Emirates who just a year ago,

we all thought of as enemies of Iran, well, they are obviously well aware that the Iranian president is going to Moscow, far from being bothered about this. that they still greet Putin as this dear friend. So you can see how completely the political geography of the Middle East has changed. This diplomatic revolution, brokered by the Chinese, this reconciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the way it's changing everything now in the Middle East. So Raizi has been in Moscow. again massive discussions about economics about trade about military relations the Russians it's now confirmed have completed an arms agreement with Iran they're going to supply Iran with Suhoi 35 fighter jets with

YAC-130 trainer and ground attack aircraft with helicopter gunships with all of these things so the military relationship is now in full swing but of course the key point the major thing that was agreed

over the course of this discussion was that Iran and the Russian led Eurasian economic union which includes the Central Asian states, they're now going to enter into a free trade agreement. So that means free trade agreement between Russia

and the Central Asian states and Belarus, by the way, and Iran. Russia itself, as we now know, has these very, very close economic links with China. It means, in effect, that Iran is now being. fully integrated into the Eurasian economic system. And we're going to see railway lines apparently and roads, shipping lines across the Caspian Sea and all of that.

And that will ultimately transform the Iranian economy. Iran is now in a position where it's got free trade with its northern partners, who have relations, close economic relations with China. So it means the Chinese goods and investment can move unhindered all the way to Iran. Payments can now flow through these alternative payment systems. American sanctions on Iran, Western sanctions on Iran,

are now on the brink of total collapse. Yeah, the north-south corridor, yeah. Okay, so we can now talk about the economy, the Russian economy and the statements that Putin made at the VTB's Russia Calling Forum, the Russia Calling Forum. And Putin, he threw out some pretty impressive numbers as far as the Russian economy is concerned. And he also talked about the John McCain myth, or the John McCain. statement that so many in the collective West have internalized to their own detriment, which is that Russia is or was a gas station masquerading as a country. And Putin had some remarks about that statement as well. So, yes, indeed. It was the most extraordinary speech. And I,

it's now, I think, starting to appear to make to make. many Russians, and perhaps also to Putin himself, and this is important, that Russia's economic relations with Europe especially, far from being an enabler of Russian economic development, were instead a hindrance to Russian economic development, that far from the sanctions being a problem, by severing the connection between Europe, especially specifically Europe and Russia,

it is finally given the space for Russian manufacturing and the domestic economy to surge in a way that all of those trade links with Europe were preventing it from doing. So what's happened is all those imports that Russia used to make from Europe. consumer, the cars, all of that kind of thing, the spare parts, all that's gone. So the Russians are now having to make their own. And I think a little to their astonishment, they're starting to find that, yes, they can make their own, and they can do it in record time, and that they do have the industrial

and the technological skills to do it. And the result is that their industrial manufacturing service, domestic services economy is now surging. Now Putin said that they now think that overall growth this year is going to be 3.5%. Now, this is far higher if it's true. We're now close to the end of the year. If it is true, that is higher than the highest estimates that any people, including the Russians themselves were making at the start of this year. And agriculture has obviously been booming for some time,

ever since sanctions were imposed on Russia in 2014, by the way. So agriculture is booming. So it turns out it's interesting in manufacturing. And the point that Putin made is that McCain, people like him, always used to talk about Russia being essentially a commodity supplier, the gas station, masquerading as a country and all of that. But in fact, and in reality, all this very rapid economic growth that we have seen in Russia this year, almost all of it has been down not to the energy industry, the oil and gas industry.

it's been down to domestic manufacturing, to services, to all of these things, expanding at this very, very rapid rate to fill all those niches. So Russia is rapidly evolving into a very major manufacturing power and the energy mix in its economy is now rapidly declining. So the sanctions have hugely accelerated a process which, by the way, was already underway. But they've taken it to a much higher gear, if you like. So far from being at Russia being a gas station any longer, it's becoming a completely different kind of country, a completely different economy based on high investment in industry, manufacturing. technology, science, all of those things, out of speed which no one, not Putin, not myself, not anyone I know expected. Pretty remarkable, huh?

Who would have ever thought that all of those sanctions packages, 12 or 13 sanctions packages that Europe put on Russia would lead to this incredible Russian economic growth? I think Putin even mentioned that the Russian economy is outperforming the, the European economies. I think he mentioned that. Oh, yes, he did. Well, he did indeed, and of course that is true, but then I have to say that wouldn't be particularly difficult, given the state that the European economies are in. The fact is, the sanctions have had the opposite effect of the one intended. They've caused the Russian economy to surge and the European economy to decline, which is, I mean, incredible and remarkable in many ways. But can I just say, the people who should

have perhaps had a better understanding that this might happen, ought theoretically, to have been the Americans, because the structure of the Russian economy, a huge continent, self-sufficient, with strong industrial technological assets. What it resembles most is the American economy of once upon a time. And of course, if you go back to American economic policy from about the 1860s, Abraham Lincoln, all the way up to about the 1950s, the Americans at that time built up their economy behind protectionist walls, aiming to build up their domestic industries and doing so behind tariff barriers, focusing on technology and productivity

at the latter achieved through high wages. And in effect, what they have done through the sanctions is that they've imposed the same economic model on Russia and it is having its same effect in Russia that it once did in the United States. Now, if you listen to people like Michael Hudson, for example, that's exactly the point he's been making. So it's also, I believe, I think is James Galbraith

has been saying the same thing, Jeffrey Sachs, all of these people, but of course these people are familiar with economic history. The person who, it turns out, largely crafted the sanctions, Michael McFaul, the former US ambassador to Moscow, didn't understand that at all. He completely brought into the gas station masquerading as a country theory.

And, well, he's to the opposite, it seems, of what he expected. Not the sharpest knife in the draw, McFald. And it's pretty incredible, given the fact that he was in Russia. You would imagine that if he was ambassador to Russia, he was in the country and he actually saw what was happening or started to understand or had an understanding of the people, the culture, history. You would think that he would know better, but nope. Well, this is the problem because, of course, McFaul is the most cited and most quoted, and I suspect the most consulted expert on Russian affairs within the U.S. foreign. in policy blob. He's seen as the great theorist. He was this advisor to Putin. It was he, sorry, not to Putin, Obama. It was he who advised Obama to try to play this game of setting Putin and

Medvedev off against each other, which turned out so badly. It was he who, you know, came up with the concept of the reset, which was, again, it turned out not at all what it was meant to be, but he's always been giving this kind of advice. So, you know, once upon a time, the American government took advice about Russia from people like George Kennan, or Stephen Cohen. They have turned to Michael Ful, McFall, instead. We see the results. Well, Jeffrey Sachs, they used to get advice from them. But as I said, they now prefer McFaul, who tells them what they want to hear, and we see the result. Yeah.

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