The Duran Podcast - Israel strikes Iran (Live)

Episode Date: June 13, 2025

Israel strikes Iran (Live)

Okay, we are live with Alexander and Mercuris in London. Alexander, how are you doing this Friday? Friday morning for you? Well, I am doing well. I would point out it's Friday to 13th and we have a walk. That's right. So, you know, it's, I mean, obviously one has to take that fact into account. But personally, I'm well.

Yeah, Friday the 13th. And yesterday we had the horrific. terrific news on the plane crash in India so our thoughts and prayers go out to everyone all the families and all the people that are suffering through that plane crash a Boeing dream dream liner I think yes yes anyway all right let's get to the main topic Alex yeah let's let's say a quick hello to everybody that is watching us on on Odyssey on Rock Finn rumble YouTube and the director dot locals.com.

How is everyone doing in the locals chat? How are our moderators doing today? Zareel is in the house. And that's it. Zareel and myself. We will be moderating. And Alexander, let's discuss the strikes on Iran. Your thoughts?

Well, first of all, these are. very big strikes. These are not like the strikes that we saw last year. If you remember, there were the strikes in the spring, where the Israelis and the Iranians basically exchanged token attacks. Then there was a second series of strikes in the autumn, which were on bigger scale, but still not on the really big scale. This is a major Israeli missile and air offensive against Iran. And its purpose is quite clear, as far as I'm concerned, it is to try. to decapitate Iran's leadership in order to precipitate regime change there. Now, they're attacking other things. They're attacking the nuclear sites, but it's unlikely

that they will do much damage. They're also attacking elements of the Iranian air defense system, which is exactly what you would expect them to do. We are not able to discuss, because we don't have the information, how successful those strikes are. But we do know that already two important Iranian military officials. The chief of staff and the head of the IRGC have both been killed. And the Iranians, by the way, have disclosed that. I mean, the Iranians are being quite open about what is going on. And we have been working up to this for at least a year now,

ever since the attack by the Israel on the embassy building in Damascus. and if you all remember Netanyahu made an incredibly belligerent speech to Congress and we subsequently learned that from Axios that the Israelis have been lobbying the US to allow them to conduct these strikes against Iran and the neocons in the US have been lobbying to support Israel's strikes against Iran and we are finally there Yeah, talk about the lobbying that's been taking place. Talk about the timeline to get us to where we are,

because this wasn't just straight out. I mean, this has been an effort that has been unfolding for about the past year or so. Maybe going all the way to Biden. Yes, definitely starting at Biden. Definitely going, definitely going all the way back to Biden. I mean, there have been many periods, many moments when the United States, States has deployed huge forces to the Middle East ever since October 2023, which all of which suggested, you know, an imminent attack on Iran. And we've done many programs about this,

talking about the fact that the neocons are you trying to use this crisis that exists in Gaza as the, you know, the excuse, the reason, the pretext to attack Iran. And in April of last year, I think that in Israel, at least, they made that decision. And I think the neocons in Washington were fully in with it and also supported that decision. And we had the attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus. The Iranians responded, but they responded in a very calibrated way in order to avoid further escalation. Then there was the murder in Tehran of the political head of Hamas, which on the same day that Peziscan was being inaugurated president,

so that caused the Iranians to respond. But again, they tried to respond in a calibrated way. Then Israel itself responded, but that again, they pulled their punches to some extent. there was incredible rhetoric from Netanyahu when he went to Washington in the late summer of 2024. He made a very, very war, you know, speech in Congress talking about war. We talked about this at the time. We said that this man is clearly now aiming for war against Iran and against all of Israel's various enemies. And then we learned from Axios after the election, at the U.S. presidential election, but whilst Biden was still president, that the Israelis had contacted the Biden administration and asked for permission to launch massive strikes against Iran.

And Biden referred them to Trump. And at that time, Trump said no. And then ever since Trump himself has been president, he has also been. continuously lobbied by the Israelis to authorise these attacks. He's not been keen on the idea, or so he has said. He discovered that his own national security adviser, Mike Wals, was working with the Israelis to try to get him to agree to these strikes. He transferred Wals to the UN Security Council.

But eventually, after apparently a meeting with Mark Levin, the Fox commentator who speaks a lot for the neocons, a meeting which caused Tucker Carlson, apparently, enormous alarm. Tucker wrote a very strong and long piece about this on X. Apparently Trump finally gave the green light, and well, we're now there. Yeah, OMG Puppies asks, drones and electronic measures were deployed inside Iran next to many targets. Drones are changing warfare. It's looking like Iran was damaged more than anyone expected. Six nuclear physicists gone. Have you heard the reports about the about Mossad having this drone

operation inside of Iran and launching the drones? I haven't heard. I haven't heard. I'm not up to date with every single. That's the claim. That's the claim that they operated inside Iran a drone. That is the claim. But I mean, it would not surprise me. And by the way, it is not new. I mean, the Israelis have done this before. I mean, one thing that's become absolutely clear, not just over the last few years, but over many, many years, is that Iran does not have anything remotely like watertight security. I'm going to make a guess that one of the fundamental problems is that Iranian officials, like Hezbollah officials, before them, are far too free in their use of their mobile phones and I think that enables the Israelis to keep track on them and to find out where they are.

And I think that plays a significant role. I asked to how much damage this operation so far has actually done and whether this has really done more damage than, you know, people expect it. Up to now, I can't really say that because I don't have any real proper damage assessments. I've always assumed that when the Israelis carried out an attack on Iran, they would kill quite a lot of important people. Because as I've said, I've long since come to understand that Iranian intelligence or rather counterintelligence is very, very faulty. And that the Israelis can strike at people in Iran and have done so before. They've killed many Iranian scientists. They've done all of these things.

It hasn't stopped the Iranians. It slowed them down, but it's never stopped them. Yeah, but they definitely have an intel problem. Oh, absolutely. A huge intel problem. Not only is it a huge intel problem, but Israel has excellent intel, and Iran has terrible. Dreadful. I mean, I mean, scientists were killed.

High level command commanders. The chief of the general. The chief of the general staff of the Iranian army and the head of the IRGC. Now, to give a sense of, again, of how poor internal security is in Iran, I mean, we had, first of all, we've had many assassinations of Iranian scientists before. But we had the assassination in Tehran of the political head of Hamas the day of Pesizhian's inauguration. I mean, and notice that none of the people involved in that attack have been captured.

So, I mean, Iran has a dreadful internal security system. So did Hezbollah, as it turned out. Now, of course, maybe under pressure of all of this, the Iranians will gradually get their barrack together. But as I said, I suspect that one of the basic problems is that they just don't maintain proper communications discipline. Yeah, there's a lot of people in the chat saying that because of the sanctions, it's hurt Iran, no doubt that it's hurt around all the sanctions over the many, many years.

But still, it's something is not right. I don't actually buy that argument. I think that sanctions do not prevent you from establishing proper intel and proper intel and sorting out your security and doing those things. I mean, I think that's an excuse, which to my mind really doesn't work. I mean, Iran has had decades to get on top of this, and they never have done, even when the sanctions were not there. Yeah. A.G. asks, what exactly has the IAEA found?

So the IAEA yesterday or the day before, they put a resolution which said that Iran was not complying with the uranium enrichment. And the resolution was passed mainly by the United States, France, Germany, the UK, China, Russia, and Burkina Faso voted against. Yeah. Many countries abstained. But the resolution passed, which found that Iran was in violation. This was the green light that Israel that the United States was looking for, right? Because then they could take this UN decision, this IAEA decision, and say, look. You see, Iran was not complying.

That's basically how all of this kicked off. Absolutely. Now, this looks to me like a pretext, because to the best sense that I can understand, this relates to events that took place more than 20 years ago. I mean, what the IAA did was that they went to various sites in Iran, and they found traces of nuclear activity from a long time ago, 20-plus years ago.

Now, here I am going to say what I believe, I've said this many times, sometimes get lots of aggressive pushback about this. But I believe that in the 1990s, Iran absolutely did have a nuclear weapons program. I think what happened was that after the first Gulf War between the United States and Iran, the Iranians, like many people, were horrified when they discovered how advanced Saddam Hussein's nuclear weapons program was. he came within a year apparently of developing a capability to produce nuclear weapons. And the Iranians who just fought a very, very long and very bitter war with Saddam Hussein, one in which they lost tens upon tens of thousands of people, said to themselves,

well, if Saddam Hussein came so close to acquiring nuclear weapons, then we need to have nuclear weapons as well, not so that we can attack Israel, not so that we can attack the United States, but to protect ourselves against the possibility that Saddam Hussein might acquire them. And I think they did operate a nuclear program to that purpose at that time. And they did all kinds of things secretly,

and this has been long known and widely understood, and they lied about it at the time, and they've admitted that too, by the way. And then what happened was that, as we all know, Saddam Hussein's regime was overthrown when the United States invaded Iraq in 2003. And at that point, the Iranians called their entire nuclear weapons program off, because Saddam Hussein, the proximate threat that Iraq represented had ended.

And then sometime after that, they began to come clean on some of the things that they'd been doing previously. But the result is every so often, every couple of years, more information comes to light about this previous period in the 1990s and early 2000s when the Iranians were indeed working on a covert nuclear program. Netanyahu has brought it up many, many times. The IAEA appears to have done that again, it is irrelevant to the current situation in Iran.

It has no bearing on what the Iranians are doing now at all. So that's my own view about this. You're getting pushed back on it. That's not what happened. People are saying in the chat, that's not what happened. Look, Alexander, you just explained how the IAEA, it has no relevance today what happened 30 years ago. 30 years ago.

But the point of what Alexander is saying is that The IAEA used what happened 30 years ago as a pretext to give the Netanyahu administration the reasoning to hit Iran. Exactly. That's the point. Exactly. Exactly. And Alexei is clear. It has no relevance today.

It is no relevance at all, none whatsoever. As I said, it's something that is brought up all the time, but it is irrelevant to the situation today. Yeah. All right. Some more questions. Jens, do you think from Ziknas, Jens, do you think there is a common instigator with this attack in the June 1st attack on Russia? Proximity is unsettling. Who is pulling the strings? Every time you're about to have a negotiation, Alexander, something is happening. Just like the Istanbul talks, the day before you had all of these attacks in Russia, the airfield attacks and the terrorist train attacks.

And we were three days off from the sixth, six meetings. Yes. Technical talks between Whitkoff and the Iranian Foreign Minister, where both Whitkoff and the Iranian Foreign Minister said things are going very, very well. I get pushed back on this. People say, oh, things were not going well. No, things were going well between Whitkoff and the Iranian Foreign Minister. And even the Iranian Foreign Minister was very, very satisfied with the progress of the negotiations.

He said it in multiple posts, Sanex. Yes, absolutely. That is the connecting thread. It's not that, you know, the Israelis and the Ukrainians and the Americans and all of those people got together and said, you know, let's carry out the attacks simultaneously in Russia, the drone attacks in Russia and the drone attacks in Israel. What is the connecting threat is that there are many people in Washington, in Israel and in Ukraine. and in London, by the way, who do not want negotiations to end any of these conflicts to succeed. So in Ukraine, as we see, they do not want to agree to Istanbul Plus. They do not want to agree to end the war.

They do not want a situation where some kind of stability is restored to the situation in Europe because they have a completely different agendas. All of the Ukrainians, they want the money to continue to flow. the British want to conduct their conflict with Russia to the maximum. Ursula wants to use the war to increase the power of the European Union. The neocons have no reverse care in Washington over Ukraine or everything else. And that's exactly the same between the United States and Iran. There was a straightforward deal on the table between the United States

and Iran. Iran stops enriching uranium above 3.7%. It hands over all its enriched uranium above that level to Russia. The Russians have just confirmed that, by the way, they confirmed yesterday that they were in discussions with the Americans and the Iranians on this very thing. Just to say, you can find it on TAS. The Iranians then enter into their various deals with the Russians, which we know about, which will gradually strengthen Iran's conventional defenses. But this is the proposal that they don't enrich uranium, the agreement that they don't enrich Iranian is an indefinite one. it is not time limited to 10 years.

And the United States begins to lift the sanctions on Iran. So there was a deal there. And Arachi, the Iranian foreign minister and Witgolf, were both saying we are making progress towards it. Of course, again, if your priority is not to stop Iran acquiring nuclear weapons, but to achieve regime change in Iran, to come off. after the head of the snake as some Israeli officials and commentators and some Western American and British commentators, the neocons, have been saying, then that is something you absolutely do not

want to see. You do not want to see that kind of agreement made, and that's why we are where we are. You said yesterday in the live stream with Professor Sachs, you said that what Iran is going to, what Israel is going to do is they're going to launch decapitation strikes. Yeah, yes. No one else was saying that. Everything they're going to go after the nuclear facility. They were going to launch decapitation strikes, and that's exactly what they did.

That's exactly what they accomplished. Exactly, yes. And it's all about regime change. And they're not finished, by the way. We've got many, many days of this. I mean, I presume they'll be hunting Pezascar and Ham and A and all of these other people. And, you know, for all I know, they'll get them. Yeah.

Alan Shepard says, so Iran has. as uranium in the air and in the soil now. Oh, yeah. I mean, I don't know where all of this uranium is, but you know, you're absolutely right to draw attention to the effects of this. I mean, it is a disastrous thing that has been done. And unnecessary, unnecessary, if your priority is to stop Iran acquiring nuclear weapons.

That deal was on the table. Iran says it did not want nuclear weapons. The United States says it doesn't want Iran to have nuclear weapons. nuclear weapons. They both agree on the end point. So where's the problem? Nico says, I'm so done with what is happening in the world. After this, the neoconsocopats don't stop. They never stop. I guess prepare for the NKs, NKs the nukes to drop. Well, what have we been saying on the Duran ever since we started these programs? They have no reverse gear. They don't. Now, I don't think we should give way to councils of despair.

The neocons are not that many people. I mean, I think that's the thing to say. And they are becoming increasingly unpopular in the United States. And we can see the people like Tucker Carlson, Marjorie Taylor Green, are the people who write for the Federalists, who are supporters of Israel, by the way. They are all coming out strongly and increasingly against the neocons as well. Even Trump, when he went to Saudi Arabia, talked out the neocons.

And Tulsi Gammon made a speech the other day, which clearly shows her strong disagreement with what has just happened. So we must not despair. We must keep talking and pushing back on these people. Because, of course, ultimately, because they have no reverse gear, if left to themselves, they could potentially take us to the place that. Nico says. I don't think they will because I don't think they will be allowed to. But, you know, we've got to keep pushing back on them all the time and calling them out for what they are. Yeah. Trump is full in this now. He's falling with the New York cars now. Yeah. No doubt about that.

Oh, absolutely. Yes. President of foreign policy, Lindsay Graham. Absolutely. Fuzzy Ball says, no nation suckling on the tit of America can have self-respect for itself because took their self-respect a long time ago? Well, indeed, yes. But, I mean, you think of what damage this is doing to the U.S. too. I mean, they're now being drawn into what could easily turn out into another forever war. Yeah. Paul Walker says, anyone the USA holds talks with issues follow.

True enough. Commander Crossfire says, So much for cooperation between Russia and Iran. What benefit has it brought? Israel is on a role. Greater Israel talk of internal division is overblown. We haven't yet even had Iran ratify the strategic agreement that they made with the Russians. The Russians have ratified it. The Iranians, as always, have taken their time. This is where we are at the very first days, or not the first day, we are in the first hours of this.

We just do not know how this is going to play out over time. And if you want me to tell you what I personally think, I think one of the things that has been driving this process that has been causing the neocons of the Israelis to bring forward this attack to this time is because they are very, very nervous that if time evolves, then the security agreements between Russia and Iran

will start to gel and will start to see Russian air defense systems being established on a large scale in Iran. and then the military balance in the Middle East will start to shift. And that might happen anyway. Yeah, everyone is commenting, or a lot of people are commenting on social media that the Russian air defense systems in Iran failed yesterday. We don't know. We don't know.

First of all, what Russian air defense systems in Iran? I mean, you know, the Russians supplied one battery of S-300 missiles some time ago. The Israelis, of course, claimed that they destroyed it in the autumn. Maybe they did. Maybe they didn't. I don't know. But Iran's air defense system is mostly overwhelmingly Iranian. I mean, the Iranians have their own air defenses.

But what we don't know is how successful or not successful it has been, because we have no comprehensive. damage reports yet with which to come to any kind of definite assessment. Yeah, I think the only thing that we know as a definite is the decapitation strikes. The death of the generals and the scientists, which Iran has confirmed. To their credit, by the way. Yeah. Christopher says Iran falls. Russia and China will have soft belly.

Well, yes. But, I mean, that brings us back to the question of whether this will be. because again, and I made this point after the attacks on Hezbollah, if Iran collapses and collapses quickly, then exactly what you said will happen. But if on the contrary, Iran holds together and the government in Iran remains stable, or at least remains in control, then with every day that passes, the balance shifts. and in fact it is Israel and the United States that become drawn into an indefinite war. I mean, can I just say we simply don't get, know how successful these attacks have been

and what they've actually achieved. It could very well be that apart from killing some senior Iranian officials and scientists, they've actually achieved very little. Just say, we don't know. We don't know. Yeah, even with Natanz, the nuclear facility, we're getting conflicting reports. Absolutely.

Yeah, of its status. You talked about, in a video that we recorded, you talked about Iran focusing on regime survival. Yes, yes. That has to be Iran's priority now. And I should say it's worth when the video comes out following through the entire discussion. because Alex made the point that this is more important for Iran to survive, for the regime to survive, than for Iran to hit back against Israel at this particular moment. That's not to say that Iran is not going to hit back against Israel,

but the way in which Iran wins, if you like, is by preserving its regime. and that probably ought to be the priority for the regime now because what this is all about is an attempt to overthrow the regime in Iran and to collapse the Islamic Republic and to create a crisis in Iran and to essentially achieve regime change there. If that is defeated, if that fails, then this whole operation has failed.

Flying Boar says the problem is Iran's president. He is weak. Well, possibly, but I suspect that he won't be very weak for very much longer if he survives this, because I suspect the Israelis are going to be coming for him too, just the same. Studio Rainer says, I was waiting for this live stream. I have three questions. What is more effective? An oil shock or a nuke? Question number two is, will Egypt shut the Suez Canal and question number three, how can Iran retaliate when Netanyahu relies on a retaliation?

Let me know if you want me to repeat those questions. You want to start with question one? You don't need to repeat. All shock or nuke. First of all, I mean, if we start going down the situation of nuclear weapons and things of that kind, I mean, you know,

that is such an horrifying and unimaginable well, I'm not unimaginable, it's very imaginable. But it's a horrifying prospect If we start seeing nuclear weapons used, then it's not just going to be a shock. It's going to be an escalation, which is going to lead to a further nuclear escalation, and an outright nuclear exchange and an eventual war. A oil shock is a very real possibility.

At this precise moment in time, oil crisis are rising. Now, the question is, again, we come back to how affected this, this strike has been. If it has not been very effective, I think that the Iranians perhaps will conclude that it is not in their interests to close the Straits of Homo, as apparently absolutely can do,

because countries like Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states, for the moment, are publicly siding with them. They will condemn this strike. And Iran will want to keep the diplomatic initiative on its side. If we start moving towards an outright war situation, which we probably at some point will, because the Americans, the Israelis having started this, it's difficult to see how it ends. If we start to get into that kind of situation, then of course the Iranians might decide to close the Straits of Hormuz, in which case we have an oil shock and that will have enormous effects on the global economy.

That's the first thing to say. I don't think Egypt is in any position to shut down the Suez Canal. I think Egypt's political and economic situation is so unstable and so rickety that I think the Al-Sisi government, whose overriding priority is to maintain control, is going to try to keep Egypt out of this whole crisis. And I think that's something people need to understand. I do think Egypt is in any condition to take on Israel, let alone the collective West. We are not talking about Nassas, Egypt. We are talking about Al-Sisi's Egypt, and that is a very different thing. And go on.

Yeah, retaliate. How can Iran retaliate when they rely on a retaliation? And that is exactly, that is in some ways the most insightful question of all, because, of course, Iran is bound to retaliate. I predict they will retaliate against Israel itself. They have no choice but to retaliate. Because if they don't retaliate, then that will create dismay within their own country. But their ultimate best way of winning is through regime survival.

And that, as I said, will probably be their priority. And that ultimately is their best response to what has happened. because that is what the Israelis are trying to achieve. If they retaliate too strongly and the United States becomes involved on Israel's side, which is exactly what Netanyahu is trying to do, then of course the possibility of regime collapse becomes greater. Yeah. Commando Crossfire says Israel has found that it can commit full on side

and get no blowback. So, yeah, it will strike weak nations like Iran. Will the new Iran government hold or civil war? Well, we shall see. My own personal guess is that we will see regime survival. I mean, I'm not an expert on Iranian internal affairs. I appreciate that there are aspects of the Iranian government that are unpopular. I believe, nonetheless, that there is an overriding and passionate loyalty in Iran to Iran

as a nation. And I suspect that the Iranians will pull together and will defend this. I'm also told by people who know that even critics of the government in Iran strongly support Iran's civil nuclear program and are opposed to some of the more extreme demands that Iran give up nuclear enrichment entirely, which it is entitled to do under the terms of the nuclear proliferation proliferation treaty. So I think that the regime will hold together, and I think it will be able to absorb the blow, and I think quite plausibly could come out even stronger

at the end of this process, especially if it is able to develop its regional alliances with China, Russia, the Gulf states, BRIC states, and all of that. So, you know, that is what I think is the most likely outcome. But, you know, we are at the first hours of this, and we will have to see. Zaryel asks how strong were the strikes in Iran? Is it that strong that they will retaliate?

Well, I don't know. Again, there's a lot of smoke. There's a lot of talk. And clearly, they have been strong in the sense that people have been killed. I mean, senior people have been killed. We will no doubt get battlefield reports afterwards. But, again, these Israelis will provide. there, satellite data. We need to be very careful, by the way, assessing that because as we've

discovered in the past, satellite data doesn't tell the whole story. And we don't know what the redundancies are. So, for example, the Israelis will no doubt provide us with pictures of destroyed air defence positions. But they may not provide us with pictures of air defence positions that have survived. I don't know what is going to happen. But, But ultimately, this was a much bigger attack than the one that we have seen. It's going to continue for several days. And what Netanyahu wants it to evolve into is an all-out war, not just between Israel and Iran, but between the United States, the collective West, Israel and Iran.

Hello there says the US deceived Iran with fake nuclear talks and then attacked them. The same thing will happen to Russia with these fake talks with the US. Why can't Russia understand this? Your thoughts? Well, I mean, if we're talking about Russian, you know, we have this brought up all the time. What have the Russians actually conceded? What steps have the Russians made, which suggests that they're letting down their guard. They've conceded nothing. They've turned out for some meetings in Istanbul.

They've set out conditions which the Ukrainians and the Americans are rejected. They continue with their special military operation. And there's been a big meeting in the Kremlin in which they're talking about upgrading their armed forces even further. And Mark Rutter, the NATO Secretary General, says that they're producing more weapons in three months than the entire collective West is producing in a year. I don't see that the Russians have let themselves be strung along in any way at all. I think this is a point which needs to be made because this point is being brought up constantly. And I just truly do not understand it.

If the Russians were making concessions, if they were agreeing to cease friars, if they were pulling back, from certain locations like Kinburn's Pit in the way that Kellogg is saying. Well, then I could understand that argument, but I have not seen anything like that happen at all. And I go to say the same about Iran. What exactly has Iran conceded up to now as a result of the week of Arachi conversations? They conceded nothing. Have they stood down their forces? Have they made important concessions about.

Hezbollah, about ballistic missiles, about support for the Houthis. They've done no such thing. So some people are saying that the Iranians were caught by surprise by this. I find that very difficult to believe, given that predictions of an Israeli attack on Iran were all over the media for days. So I cannot see that either Tehran or Moscow was. fooled or tricked in any way. Maybe some people in Washington

were trying to fool and trick them, but it clearly didn't work. Yeah, I mean, in the case of Russia, it's got into the point where the neocons are shifting to a different war. Exactly. They're moving away from Ukraine, and they're shifting to a different war, which they believe that they can win. Yes, they believe they can get the regime change. And they might be right.

And they might be right. Exactly. Yeah, exactly. No, yeah. Because Iran is a far less powerful country than Russia is. I mean, there's no comparison. Yeah, the Haki Koli says, for all the talk of 3D chess and patience, nothing serious ever seems to happen in response.

Embassies, Syria, assassinations, etc. I get restraint, but the perception of this level of patience is weakness. It invites escalation. You, again, this is an argument that is made constantly. How is this actually succeeding? Well, it might succeed if we see a collapse in Iran. But if it doesn't, what is this actually achieving? I mean, we had the attacks on Hezbollah. People predicted, many people predicted. I thought it might even happen that Hezbollah might collapse under the weight of the blows, but it didn't. And apparently it is re-arming. We had the collapse

of the asset government in Syria. Again, it has not been reported, but over the last couple of days, we've had missile strikes on Israel from Syria, either at Al Jalani himself and Erdogan doing this, or it's someone else, which calls into question Al Jalani's control. Who knows?

But I haven't yet seen any real sign that anything has been achieved by any one of these attacks up to now. Obviously, if Iran collapses, then we're talking about a completely different situation. But so far, Israel has taken all kinds of steps and actions, but it has never succeeded in resolving its strategic crisis,

which up to this point, it seems to me, has been getting deeper. I'll tell you one thing. I'll tell you one thing that's happening. Trump's presidency is unraveling. Absolutely. Absolutely. You're going to get people like Tucker, people like Tulsi Gabbard,

who has said to make comments, which I think were clearly intended to criticize this whole operation. You're getting other people like Marjorie Taylor Green, and you're getting the people at the Federalist, and they're all very, very, to say, unhappy, would be an understatement. Tulsi's Gabart's comments,

she was furious about this whole business. Tyler Durdin says, Decapitation strikes without a declaration of war. We've entered a new age of warfare. Good luck to all. What indeed true. But I mean, you know, declarations of war, who has used them? I think the last time was at the start of the Second World War.

Nobody bought this with that any longer. Yeah. Annan Calerisian, thank you for that super chat. Cobb fan says, what happened to the supposed great Iranian air defenses? Well, we don't know. We don't know how many missiles were shot down. We don't know how many missiles got through. When it comes to drone attacks, they clearly are successful,

but then air defenses, as we've seen, apart from Russian air defenses, don't seem to be particularly effective in countering drone attacks, especially when they're local drone attacks. So, you know, we haven't yet been provided with the full story. What we can say is that maybe the Iranian, air defenses have not worked. But what we can say definitely is that Iranian counterintelligence, internal security has again failed. Stephen G. says the real question is how will Iran respond because they will need to. Yeah, they will need to. Absolutely. And I mean, they can't not.

We will see and we will see what they do. I'm going to make a guess that since it is not in their interests to broaden the war and to bring the United States in, they will initially respond against Israel itself. But they're making it absolutely clear that they believe the US is involved. And I believe also that they will try to, they will end the talks with the United States. I mean, it's impossible to see the talks continuing in this kind of context. And the other thing they will do, and this is the other thing that I think people need to bear in. mind is that they will probably now accelerate their nuclear program and might start really working towards acquiring a nuclear weapon which will though emboldened the other yeah for them to go

harder against ira this is this is the this is exactly the problem that's that's coming up now yeah the the hard lighters in iran will say no now we definitely need a nuke and once once that happens and And Trump, Trump especially is going to say, no way. Now we're going to get involved. Yeah. Absolutely. So we are now absolutely on the escalation ladder. And I mean, which is what these strikes were intended to do.

Nico says, you know my idol, Albert Einstein has said that we should never underestimate humanity's capacity for self-destruction. Unfortunately, he missed the willingness for self-destruction. We are fighting human nature. We can't stop. Well, in truth, yes. The hockey goalie says to clarify, I don't want war. However, if it was me, there surely has to come a point where you smell the coffee. Your allies are gone.

You're next. Well, I think that all of the various countries that we're talking about understand that they need to hold together to the extent that they can. And no doubt they will. Can I repeat again, we are in the first hours of this operation. ultimately the test of this is not whether the Iranians are able to repel every single missile. It is whether their regime survives. That is the major test of this operation. You're not going to hear that anywhere else.

That's exactly it, Alexander. That word, regime survival. That's what Iran, if they're smart about it, that's what they should be focusing on, yeah, because the regime is, they're targeting the regime, no doubt about it. Justin Willis says, what risk a false flag on, what risk a false flag on Israel as a reason for massive Israel U.S. response? The neocons seem like they are itching for an escalation. A false flag risk. A false flag.

I think it's a very real risk. I mean, we could very well find ourselves there. But, you know, we have so many risks at the moment that, I, I, I think. We're off the scale in terms of risk. Can I just say again, the person who is very much to blame for this whole situation is Trump. As Alex said, he has created this whole scenario in which these risks exist and where his presidency is going to start to unravel. This is the line that's been crossed.

And there's no coming back from it, I think. He's trying desperately to distance himself and the United States from this affair. He's had Rubio put out a statement saying that these are unilateral steps by Israel. He himself has said the United States is not involved. I don't think the Iranians believe that for one microsecond. And why would there? And I think that if he thinks that, you know, he could put pressure on Iran to make concessions whilst at the same time keeping the negotiations with Iran going

and present himself again as some kind of mediator and honest broker. I think he is living in a world of illusions. Daniel Walker says the Iranian people are increasingly becoming more secular, but the regime is still fundamentalist. Most Iran people, I speak too hate the regime. I have just been speaking to somebody who's just been to Iran. and he said to me something quite interesting. He said that most Iranians in Iran do not hate the regime.

The people you might encounter outside Iran, some of them do, but most of them don't. But he also said something that over the last couple of years, there's been a very significant relaxation in Iran. And that in Tehran itself, something like a third of women, for example, go around without headscarves. I think he said it was even higher than that. And that doesn't see to cause any kind of issues or problems. And it didn't seem to, you know, to affect general support for the regime itself. Now, I wasn't there. I didn't see it.

I'm not able to comment further. But that's what this person said. And it's somebody that I take very seriously. Nick says, very dangerous move. Iran may eventually retaliate with full force. regime change would bring even hardline leaders, not allies. I don't see the long-term logic in this strategy. Well, that's a very good point, actually.

I mean, why do we assume that if the regime collapses in Iran, that what will replace it will be better or better for us? I mean, as I said, all that effort and time and trouble to overthrow Assad, and Al-Zalani is now in control, and missiles are being launched from Syria against. Israel. Whilst Assad, Bashar al-Assad was in power, he was very, very careful not to launch missiles from Syria against Israel. But now it probably is happening. Erdogan doesn't play that game. Exactly. And that's who's behind Al-Jalani. Yeah, Erdogan does not play like that.

Studio Rainer says, why hasn't Israel admitted that the Gaza conflict has been a proxy war with Egypt? Egypt almost ended Israel before Egypt's military leadership has been preparing for war for decades. I'm not convinced that this is correct myself. Again, I've been following the Al-Sisi regime. I don't get the sense that they are. Certainly that they're involved with Hamas. In fact, I get the sense they hate Hamas, actually, just as they hate the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, which is connected to Hamas.

And I think Egypt, the regime in Egypt, has the strength or the ability to where, major proxy war against Israel. What they are terrified of in Egypt is that the war in Gaza will expand and spread to them. And they absolutely do not want people in Gaza coming to Egypt, unbalancing the state there even further and creating an even deeper crisis in Egypt than the one that there already is. David says with the facts and clear sight, Iran has been reckless with not getting nukes. a long time ago. I'm sure in Iran is saying that.

In fact, a couple of weeks ago, a couple of months ago, there was a whole series of statements from Iranian officials, basically saying that very thing. And you could see that there were sort of subterranean criticisms of Cháemone, the Supreme Leader. And there was even a statement from one Iranian official that the only thing that prevented Iran, from moving ahead with you.

nuclear weapons was Hamanay's fatwa and the Iranian official. I remember reading the whole commentary, as in Min, the Iranian news agency, that Iranian official said that essentially criticizing Hamané. Now what's going to happen after this attack is that there will be a lot of people in Iran who will say, look, Hamene, this is where your fatwa has brought us. We're now being attacked by Israel. Let's go ahead and get nuclear weapons because that's the only way we can achieve

what Kim Jong-un did in North Korea, which is past-time certainty of protection from attacks of this kind. Commander Crossfire says, Russia, China, love to talk and play nice. Even the SMO still calls U.S. partners, more talks, while real power simply toss over the chessboard and take the lunch money.

I don't see this at all ultimately. I mean, if we're talking about Ukraine, who is losing and who is winning in Ukraine? The SMO is a war and the Russians are winning it. I can't see that the Russians are behaving at all in the way that you say. I mean, I know this is a common theme that many, many people are making. But I really just don't see it. And if you're talking about Iran, again, to repeat once more, the Iranians have never made any sort of significant concessions at all.

And they saw off Saddam Hussein, and they established dominant influence in Iraq, and they continue to arm and equip Hezbollah, and they continue to arm and equip the Houthis. And for the moment, as I said, they've been holding together. Whether the regime itself in Iran is strong, that is a comprehensive. completely different question, but I don't see that they've been acting weakly. I just don't see that at all. Anon Karusian says I predict a mild and weak response from Iran. Well, what does a mild and weak response mean? As I said, if the regime survives, then they won. That's the key thing to say. If you're talking about strikes against Israel, I think again, they will be careful.

to calibrate those strikes, to try to avoid an out-and-out war with the United States, which, however, might come anyway. But why bring on that war with the United States, which is a war which Iran doesn't have the means to win in conventional terms because the United States is so much stronger and which could potentially do enormous damage to Iran and to Iranian society? Nico says, I am 100% sure Trump knew about this. he will authorize strikes on Iran and either Iran will be destroyed or China will intervene.

And then we have World War III. I told you I'm 90% correct in my predictions. No, can I just say something? I mean, I'm afraid I agree with you on one point. I think American strikes on Iran, if the regime survives this attack, are now only a question of time. I think that it's going to be very, very difficult for Trump to keep his, distance from this. He might think he can, but I think he is deluding himself if he does. I think more likely than not, the regime will survive. I think more likely than the not, they will start

in earnest a nuclear weapons program. I think at that point the pressure on Trump to intervene directly with the United States is going to become overwhelming, and then we will have a crisis, the like of which we have never seen. And I'm afraid on that, I do agree. Now, how this will play out in the long term, I think that is uncertain. I do think China will want to intervene directly in the war. I think Russia will want to intervene directly in the war. But you can intervene in all kinds of other ways. You can supply weapons. You can start supplying intelligence. You can start doing all kinds of other things to help Iran withstand the blow without becoming directly involved, as the Soviets did in Vietnam, for example.

And that could play out over the long term. But in order for that to happen, the regime itself must survive. And that is the key to this. Solid Freeman says Karp said USA will lead a three-front war Teal says competition is for losers Both run Palantir Trump is with them and Altman

Elon and Coe tried to go against them They lost What do we do now? Well, I mean we find ourselves in a war And a war which is going to As I said a fracture The Magif movement in the United States And lead to the collapse

Ultimately of Trump's presidency and probably quite plausibly creative rift between Trump and J.D. Vance. Bear in mind, the Niacons got their way before. They catapulted the US into a battle with the Houthis. And the Houthis came out on top. We had, you know, big bombs,

claims that important Houthi leaders had been killed, and in the end it didn't work. And J.D. Vance warned, and J.D. Vance warned. that it wouldn't work and he proved to be right. And he's known to be hostile to a conflict with Iran also

and I suspect that he will turn out to be right again. Whether he's in any position to pick up the pieces is another question. Aramon says, shame on you Iranians do not want the Islamo-fascist in all caps.

Well, I mean, I don't know what to exactly. I don't want to say about that. I mean, I know this is a common belief. I don't believe it has any real reality in terms of the actual political situation in Iran today. Yeah. Gru Gutsch 1001 says, Brian Burletek has predicted this for years. Iran will be the last Arab state.

Russia, then China to fall, time to fight back. Well, first of all, Russia than China to fall. Yes. First of all, Iran is not an state. It's completely different. I mean, the Iranians get very, very offended when you call them an Arab state. I mean, it is an Iranian state. And the Iranian language, Farsi, is an Indo-European language like the ones in Europe.

It's closer to English than it is to Arabic, just to say, much closer to English than it is to Arab. So it is not an Iranian state. But if you're talking about an attack on Iran, we've been told us. saying many, many times in many, many programs that the neocons wanted an attack on Iran. And we've said many times that sooner or later it's quite likely would happen. So there's nothing. There's no great revelation or surprise here. The one thing that has perhaps slightly surprised me is that Trump has folded so quickly in agreeing to do something, which is so clearly contrary to his own political interests.

But, I mean, ultimately, does that even matter now, just to say? But that the neocons have this game go after Iran, go after Russia. They started with Russia. They failed in Russia. Now they're going after Iran. If they failed there, what else do they have? And I can tell you what they will try to do. They will have try war at China instead.

Because that's what the neocons do. because, as I've said many times, these people have no reverse gift. Yeah, we've been saying this for three years as well. I mean, Russia, China, Iran, China, Iran, Russia. I mean, they picked Russia first. They thought Russia was the easiest one to go after. Absolutely. And they failed.

Gorbachev's forehead says, is my wine-stained birthmark in the shape of Iran? Gorbachev's forehead. What to say about that? I can't really see the connection for Big Gorbachev and the situation and the situation in Iran today. I mean, I would point out something, by the way.

I mean, you know, Iran was massively attacked by Saddam Hussein in the 1980s. There was bombing of Iran on a scale far greater even than what we're seeing now on Iran in the 1980s. There was the so-called war of the cities. Many, many Iranian leaders were assassinated at that time.

And yet the regime survived. Now, that was the 1980s. Maybe the regime has decayed since then and has become corrupt and has lost contact with Iranian society. That is the test, but it's not as if Iran hasn't absorbed blows like this before. Commander Crossfire says Syrians support Syria as well, yet the lighthouse of democracy was still swept away by a sea of tyranny. West strikes together. Bricks stand alone. Now, I don't accept that. I don't think they do stand alone. And I think, I mean, I think that we've seen China continue to trade with Russia. It's not that the Russians ever asked the Chinese to become involved in their battle in the special military operation. We saw that the North Koreans offered military help to the Russians. And the Russians offered a lot of persuasion, apparently agreed to allow a North Korean contingent to fight alongside that.

I don't think this is true. And if we're talking about Iran, which is a member of the BRICS, which Syria wasn't, Syria apparently was offered membership, if not of the BRICS, certainly a Belt and Road, and turned it down and chose to stay away from the Kazan meeting of the BRICS in... Assad made so many mistakes. I know, absolutely. He made so many freaking...

Mistakes. Yeah. So, I mean, you know, it was Syria itself, or at least the outside government, that took the decision to keep away. Now, Iran is different. And again, we are in the first couple of hours of this, and we don't, again, though, how over time it's going to play out. Frank Mears says this is a big distraction,

so they can push through sweeping new laws for Palantir, another Brazilian thing. The noticing will continue every time. Quite possibly, we'll see. Lola Rain says Iran was the seventh country on this favorite list. My heart is heavy for Iran. Israel and the entire Middle East, war mongers are celebrating U.S. please don't. Oh, well, I need to say.

And how has it improved the security situation of the Middle East? How has it improved Israel's security situation? You're absolutely correct. I mean, they're ticking through all of those seven countries. countries. Iraq was a disaster. Syria, I predict, he's going to turn out to be a disaster too. Libya, well, the man who seems to be the rising figure in Libya, Haftar is increasingly aligning with the Russians. So how is this turning out well? And this attack on Iran, which is the most strongest of all of these countries, I agree. It has been there ready for a very, very long time.

But I get to make this prediction if it succeeds or if it fails in the long term. And the long term always prevails. That's a law of history. In the long term, the results will not be good. Mark, thank you for that super sticker. Studio Rainer says, Netanyahu needs war to stay in power. If Iran war fails, then he'll be forced to go for Turkey or Egypt. He literally is waging war to remain in power,

collapse in Israel is equally possible. You know something? I think that people misjudged Netanyahu here. Absolutely. I think there is an element of this. I think he is cynical and opportunistic and corrupt. I think he's all of those things. But I also believe he believes in what he's doing. And I think people underrest to make Netanyahu consistently and to their cost. I think if it was just a question of remaining in power or at least getting some, you know, out of jail ticket, he could have probably negotiated that long ago. The fact is he believes in what he's doing, and that's what makes him dangerous. Commander Crossfire says, let's be clear, the U.S. is striking at Russian airbases and trains deep in Russia, hits on generals and public figures in Moscow, while Russia fights with their own brothers in Ukraine.

U.S. is still the only superpower by far. Well, I can't see again, I really cannot see this. They launch attacks on their basis, which again did not succeed in any significant way. It's going to result apparently the Russians walking away from the start treaty. They have a massive beating about upgrading their armed forces and including their strategic bomb forces. by the way. We see Russia developing an ever closer relationship with China and exchanging technology with China all the time. And we see the Russians continuing to advance in the special military operation in advancing further westwards and the first signs of panic. Well, not the first signs of panic,

but you know, a panicky visits to Kiev by Boris Bostorius, the German defense minister, asking what exactly is going on. I just don't see how any of this is playing out in the end to the Western advantage. You play a long game if you play your cards carefully. My constant experiences, that's the way to win games of this kind, trying to knock over the board, as somebody said. It might work in chess, but it absolutely doesn't work in international. relations.

GEG says, I'm not surprised at the timing between attacks on Iran to force the U.S. into action and coordinates across the U.S. this weekend to force the U.S. into action. The neocon globalists and their civil society program defunding were a blow that must be undermined. It took some time in reorganization, but I see this as a generalized neocon globalist response against rising populism led by, led in, by changing American electorates.

Well, you may very well be right about that, but then in that case, if these are the people who are doing these things, then what on earth is Trump doing authorizing this attack? I mean, it makes even less sense in that case. Nico says, I know that you think that because Eshkyan is weak, but the sad thing is that all the younger Iranians I talk to, they really like him for being less aggressive. Why couldn't they let him change the country as much as? he could. Well, the answer is that he has become president a relatively short time. He was accepted by the Iranian leadership, by the way. There was never any visible scientific tension there.

He tried, it seems to me, to continue a process of rapprochement with the United States. That has now self-evidently failed. It wasn't the Iranians. The Iranian leadership, we stopped Bezishian in his tracks. It was the Israelis and the Americans. Sammy 295 says it's a result of our Western indoctrination. We expect Russia to behave like the West, when in reality, they and many non-Western countries often prioritize long-term strategy over impulse actions. You are absolutely correct about this. That is exactly right. Marcos 588 says at least Imperial Japan had the politeness and decency to cut off diplomatic ties before launching their limited air strike with no boots on the ground. Sure enough.

Debo, the Black Panther says, Greetings, Alex and Alexander. They went by happy until they destroy us all, sad. Well, you know, they didn't think they will destroy everybody. They still hope and believes that they're going to win. Every one of these battles turns out badly for them. Can I make a simple point about the neocons? All of their projects begin with a bang.

They always look like they're going to be successful. And people who support the neocons are euphoric at the first days, and people who oppose the neocons are demoralized. At the day of time, it all turns otherwise, and their projects invariably and always fail. And I've no reason to think this is going to be any different. Buzzy Ball says, why is the West trying to eliminate Putin if they were successful?

Medvedev would go scorched earth on the EU and create a lot of new parking lots. Because they don't understand Russia at all. They believe that Putin is this, you know, I think they largely persuaded themselves that Putin is the person who holds it all together and he's this demoniacal leader who is, you know, the strong guy.

And if he falls, we will have someone like, well, Navalny, I suppose, though he's no longer around any longer. But somebody like that take over, some weak, liberal figure. And I mean, there could not be more completely wrong about that. That's my clear assessment, having recently been there. Esoteric philosopher says, how will Hezbollah survive without their former arms corridor in Syria?

And wasn't Iran, Russia taken by surprise there? Right. Iran and Russia were completely taken by surprise by the speed of collapse of the Syrian army, which they absolutely did not expect. And they've all said that, and they said that straightforwardly. This is the strange thing. Hezbollah does apparently continue to receive weapons. And they are receiving weapons across Syria.

And the person who has been authorizing that is Jalani. And Jalani is doing it because Erdogan has told him. So this is Erdogan. He constantly plays these complicated games. And by the way, Erdogan has good relations with Iran. Sangeva says, joined late, what happened? Lots. Lots going on. Lots going on.

Unfortunately, all bad. Studio Runner says, if Iran collapses, it doesn't benefit Israel. He needs to maintain wars for his power. Turkey or Egypt would be next. Framing Netanyahu's motives correctly leads to a clearer understanding. Well, indeed. I mean, if Iran collapses, and as I said, we're in a completely different situation, and we'll have to work out what that means.

Because we don't know what the outcome. of an Iranian collapse would be. Would it be a regime which is able to gain stability across Iran? Would it mean Iran's fragmentation? I don't want to try and speculate too far ahead. At the moment, as I said, the big question is, will the current regime survive or not if it survives? And with every day, week, month that passes,

the balance turns further and further. against Israel and the West, and by the way, the United States as well. Valeria, thank you for that super chat. Commander Crossfire says, Russia, Iran, logic, don't escalate, or the people punching you in the face might punch you in the face. NATO full in on this, just like in Ukraine. No, again, I think people, it's something that people always say, in the case of Russia,

What has happened since February 2022 is that Russia has just steadily got stronger. Its economy has got stronger. It's advancing in the area of the special SMO. Its armed forces have become very, very much stronger. Surely, that is the important thing in the long term and overall. Now, Iran is in a much weaker position than Russia is. So it's completely understandable that the Iranians didn't want to rush into a conflict with Israel and the United States. But now that conflict has begun and quite plausibly the Iranians will start to take action. But as I said already, their priority is regime survival. If they can survive, if they show that they can resist these pressures, then the balance will start to shift in their favor.

I have to just quickly answer the door. I will be back in a moment. Jack Ridley, thank you for that super sticker. Here I am. All right, I'm just going through the super chats, Alexander. Alexander G says Trump is eager and ill-informed. Bad combination. Let's try to inform Trump however we can.

Yep, I think there's some truth to that. He's very, very ill-informed, if that is the case. If that is the case, yeah. Yeah. Klaus Cleminson says, Kallis must stand up and demand strong sanctions against Israel. We cannot allow attacks against a sovereign country and a rules-based society with a clown emoji. Sure enough.

Thank you, thank you, Klaus for that. Very good point, actually. OMGMRT says, what will the Russians, Chinese, North Koreans do now? Will they support or even involve themselves, assuming Iran is weak and getting clobbered? will the Russians just stand by and watch? By the way, the chat is heavily moderated by YT.

Well, can I probably tease? But can I just say something about that? I mean, you say assuming Iran is weak. Of course, if Iran shows a capacity to hold together and the regime survives, then, of course, as I said, the balance of advantage starts to shift in favor of Iran, and you will start to see the Russians

the Chinese and all of the others, the North Koreans too, start to become increasingly involved. If Iran collapses, then, of course, everything changes. But the timeframe for achieving regime change in Iran is short. The longer this continues, the stronger the regime becomes. You've got a couple of weeks, maybe a few months, which are, for, for the for iran if you like the danger point but in this period you know it is people get through it if iran gets through it then as i said the balance of advantage shifts it's the same with the sanctions the sanctions that were imposed on russia in february 2020 were exactly the same

there was the expectation when the ruble was you know when there was the central bank assets were frozen when Russia was disconnected, it was swift, and all of those things were done, that the economy would collapse, that there would be a 50% GDP fall. And that didn't happen. And by midsummer, 2022, it was clear that it was not going to happen.

And from that point on, Russia began to become stronger and stronger and stronger. So that's the test now. The test is, What happens within the next few days and weeks and maybe months? If by autumn Iran is still there with its current regime, then the crisis point will have passed. But we're not there and I'm not making any predictions because I don't know the situation, the internal situation well within Iran.

Monarchus Munk says, are we going to see sectarian divisions accentuated between between key peripheral parties, i.e. Qatar or Saudi Arabia and Qatar don't get on at all well. Who's to say? Quite possibly. Tartar, by the way, has very good relations with Iran. It has consistently been a friend of Iran, even though they took opposite sides in the Syrian war. Fractured 0-1. Thank you for that super sticker. Betty Stadis says the Arab states are an embarrassment, totally corrupt and inept. Only the Houthis have any testicular fortitude out of all of them. Yeah, I would agree with that, actually.

From Skorvo, isn't this a U.S. proxy operation like Brian B. says? Well, I think that in a kind of a way it is, but the better way to understand this, in my opinion, is a neocon proxy operation. The neocons have an enormous hold on U.S. policy. They have their friends of the military industrial complex. But I don't myself go so far as to say that they are identical with the United States. One of the things that has happened over the last 10 years is that you can start to see an increasing opposition to the neocons grow in the United States. And ultimately, that was one of the factors that led to Trump's victories in 2016. And in

2024. Zach Boyle says Iran might minimally attack Egypt. Leave an Israel passport offer prayers commenting how everyone knew they were next. Might as well join forces. Iran might attack Egypt. I'm sorry. Did I get this correct? Yeah, I think it's sarcastic.

Leave an Israel passport offer prayers commenting how everyone knew they were next. Might as well join forces. Well, I don't think Egypt is in any condition to take on Israel. And I think that, again, as far as I could tell, Egypt is basically an American client state, which to some extent maintains some kind of an independent policy and is trying to get itself involved in bricks and to build particularly closer relations with Russia. But at the moment, people should not place any reliance on Egypt.

When was the last time Egypt fought Israel in 1973? Just saying. As Patavall says, we can take small comfort in the fact that Israel couldn't get the U.S. to attack the last country on the list of five countries that made up the neocon, Ziochon, Pearl, Wolfowitz, Kagan, Crystal Wishlist. Well, well, you can take very, very small comfort from that because I predict it's going to happen. I mean, I would have thought the odds now are very, very strongly. that at some point over the next few months,

we will see the United States joining Israel and strikes on Iran, just a second. Kevin Farrell says, do you think Iran will respond with power? Iran will respond, but to repeat again, now that we are looking at an outright attempt at regime change, that's what a decapitation strike is,

and that is what we are basically looking at now. Iran's priority is regime survival. Henry Kissinger put it once very well. In a kind of situation like this, if the weakest side survives, it wins. If the stronger side fails to win, it loses. He said that about the Vietnam War. Michael Schoenfeld says,

history, if there are any historians left, will remember Trump began politics attacking Iraq war, only to sleepwalk into a conflict many times worse. You're absolutely right about that. And I mean, maybe I shouldn't say this, but I mean, it's going to be a tragedy for him, actually. And whether, you know, you feel any sympathy for him, tragedy is when someone, this is Greek drama and all that,

tragedy is when somebody takes actions, which bring about his own destruction. Yeah, Nico says, I predict that Trump will lose the midterms and J.D. Vance will lose to Gavin Newsom. Lukachenko was right. Trump failed because he didn't slow down. Well, this is probably quite plausibly what will happen. As I said, I mean, we're still at the early stages, and I'm not going to make any predictions about American politics today. I mean, that's for another day. Kareem, NYK, 2001, says Trump will not survive his term. He looks even weaker than the first time.

We are in a dangerous moment. No, I think, well, I mean, unless something happens to him in terms of health, I think he will survive his term. But the question is whether or not he will survive the term as a president who is in control. I increasingly, he's looking as if he's no longer in control. Yeah, he's not in control. Of his foreign policy, not in control. Exactly.

I don't even know if he's interested, to be honest. I mean, it seems like he's getting intelligence reports. He even is getting intelligence reports, but whatever reports he's getting, he's definitely not interested in the detail of what's happening. Exactly. Exactly. I think we could very well end up with a situation where he becomes an unpredictable and annoying person

occupying the presidency who the rest of the American political system just ignores. The permanent government just goes on doing what it's doing. And as I said, he's a president without power. Yeah. Christina says, must we ask again who is running the U.S.? We must always. But I do think it's difficult, actually. I mean, there is a permanent government in the U.S.

They saw off Elon Musk, just to say. I mean, you know, you can criticize Elon Musk in all kinds of ways, and I do, by the way. I think he made many, many, many mistakes. But ultimately, he did try and mount an attack on them. And he lost. Studio Rainer says Mexican flags are more dominant than America, an American flags. I've heard this. Christian Delmore, welcome to the draft community.

Empire We Are says in the 90s, I worked at McDonald-Douglas Boeing. Our team got the aircraft ready for first flight. I did avionics, flight control, electrical. I built American F-15E's, Israeli F-15I's, and Saudi F-15S. Wow. Dionne Silvian says, please explain the notion of preemptive strike. Is imminent danger needed? Did Israel have it?

This is what is being said on MSM calling Israelis, Israel strike righteous. B.B. even quoted the Bible. Thanks. I know. I know. This is what they're all saying, and it's absolute nonsense. I mean, the concept of a preemptive strike is in fact contained in the, I think it is in the UN charter, that if a country fears an imminent attack before the Security Council can intervene,

then it is entitled to take action to defend itself. Then, of course, the neocons expanded the meaning of that. they stretch the meaning of it beyond any conceivable logic and use that to justify an attack on Iraq to prevent Iraq acquiring weapons of mass destruction, which, as it then turned out, Iraq didn't have. This is not a preemptive strike. The US intelligence community has said that Iran is not ready to develop nuclear weapons. And at the same time, we had negotiations underway between. between the United States and Iran,

we've seen to be making progress by no stretch of the imagination. There's this fall within the definition of a preemptive strike in accordance with the provisions of the UN Charter. Sajewa says, sorry driving middle of Australia. Can you summarize what happened? Summarize what happened. We've had a law. Israel air strikes against Israel.

Israel, very briefly, Israel is confirmed. conducting at the present time and for the next couple of days and maybe even weeks, a major attack on Iran intended to decapitate its leadership and achieve regime change there. That's in summary what is taking place. Empire, we are. Only S models are not nuclear capable. E and I models have nuclear consent panels. The Israelis would cover that panel with lots of tape. That tape was always falling off, exposing.

the big fat letters, NUC. Wow. I mean, that is, I mean, these dangers that, you know, you're hinting are absolutely there in this situation. Socratic violet, thank you for that super sticker. Studio Rainer said, how is, how is the U.S. the only major superpower? Currently, we're having a flag dispute. Some seem to favor Mexico over the U.S.

It's a foreign invasion by any metric on the homeland. Well, there you go. I mean, you know, this is, I mean, we have people on this. live stream who say that the United States is the only superpower because they're able to do all these terrible things and we have other people from the United States who say how can we be a superpower? We have people in California protesting. I'm not using word protest, of rioting if you prefer, and waving Mexican flags. You know, this is the reality of the world we are in. In the case of America, things are extremely complicated. And to repeat,

repeat again, this conflict in the Middle East is not in America's long-term advantage. The neocons may believe that it is, but the neocons, all they ever managed to do is to get the United States into trouble. El Casador says, do you see the populace in the West start going against their government and elected leaders? Mago wanted no war, and this has turned into a shit show. Yes, exactly. This is exactly what's happening in Europe.

it's going to happen in the United States, and we're going to see this rupture grow and grow, and how it will all play out in the end. I don't know. But it is usually a sign of atrophy and decay when a political class loses contact with the people it governs and starts taking decisions, which they neither understand nor approve of,

but it shows complete indifference, to their concerns. Lurka, Perka says, Bilderberg meeting in Stockholm, coincidence, any parallels between the plane crash in India and Malaysian incidents? Well, I don't have the airplane clashes. I'm not going to speculate.

I have no reason to think that there are any connections. As of what the Bilderbergers are doing, as I'm not a member of the Bilderbergers, and they don't tell me what they're up to and what they say. I really don't know what they're discussing or talking about and what role, if any, they played in any of this. El Casador says, I'm going to find myself a V8 in preparation to become a road warrior named Max and get a bit mad.

Oh, well, they're. Why stop it as V8? There were V16s in the past, by the way. Admiral Adama says, what is the likelihood that China and Russia will use North Korea as a proxy in a war against the U.S. and NATO in the event of a full-scale war breaks out in the mid-scale war breaks out in the mid- east against Iran. I don't think the Russians and the Chinese will use North Korea as a proxy

because I don't think North Korea will let itself be used it that way. North Korea, it seems to me, is a country which absolutely has agency and it might make its own decisions. North Korea has excellent and very, very good relations with Iran. From Michael, U.S. public overwhelmingly opposes war, achieving what Israel and the neocons want, regime change, ground invasion, necessary. How will the U.S. government possibly sell this? Well, this is exactly the point that we've been making over the course of this program. If the regime survives, these blows,

then what exactly does the U.S. and Israel do? Do they engage in a indefinite bombing campaign against Iran, which would be extremely difficult to sustain politically and morally disastrous, and will probably stretch their resources, or do they go further and start a ground campaign against Iran, which would be an absolute disaster? It's a huge country. It's very mountainous, very, very difficult to conquer. And it's sophisticated as well.

It's got an educated population, which would probably want to defend the country. So that's why to repeat again, this operation, which is in its first hours, Unless it succeeds quickly, it could end up making the geopolitical position, both of Israel and the United States, worse. Elaine says Lord Robert Skidelsky in the Lords is a lone voice in asking for diplomacy. His substack is good. Could he be a guest one day? That would be a great idea. I'm a huge admirer.

Danny Nunn says I think the Iranian military is much stronger than we and then I think the U.S. military two weak to engage with Iran. They're going to fail against Iran. Who knows? Let's see. My own personal view, by the way, is that the weakness, if there is a weakness in Iran,

it's at the political rather than the military level. But we will see. Marx says people are too anxious for reaction. Iran and Russia are being wise and playing the long. long game. Absolutely. That's exactly my own view. Empire, we are. We built 25-I models that were gifted to Israel. Israel doesn't buy its hardware. Everything is gifted.

Yeah. Alex says, as a Russian, I am losing my respect for Putin day by day due to lack of his decisive actions. Strong words won't scare the dogs away looking at Iran. Well, again, I think we have all of this commentary again. If we're talking, I mean, first of all, I mean, Iran has to show that it, is capable of defending itself. If it cannot do that, then nobody else can help it.

It's exactly like what we saw with Syria. If Syria is, when Syria fought, it had allies who came to its help. When Syria didn't fight, then there was nothing very much that its allies could do. Ultimately, in this particular conflict that's taking place now, it depends ultimately and immediately on Iran. If Iran is able to fight,

then other countries, Russia, China and all the others, can start to do things. And as I said, the balance will start to change and probably change quite rapidly. So as for the longer term, as for Russia and what is going on in Ukraine, to repeat again, they are winning the war. And that is ultimately the important thing.

Son of Leviathan, the U.S. is in a modern civil war. We literally have an active invasion of governors making secession threats. We can't even agree on a flag. U.S. homeland is depressing. Yeah. Prospering woman, I have been so sad that the deep state neocons have run U.S. foreign policy since developing the project for the New American Century in 1997. Yes.

Commander Crossfire says, thank goodness for Alexander's level-headedness. Thank you. Thank you. Agreed. Raul Pinto says, if the Iranian regime falls, does ISIS version 2.0 come out of the woodwork? What about Saudi Arabia? Not just ISIS 2.2, but ISIS 2.3 and 2.4. And at 5 and 6, we're going to have quite plausibly a whole proliferation of these organizations.

And who knows what might happen in the Gulf, in Saudi Arabia and all of these places. I mean, again, I'm not in a position to predict what will develop in a region I have barely visited and don't know. But nothing good will come of it. We saw that in Iraq. By the way, I mean, I wasn't doing commentary at the time. But I remember saying to people at the time of the Iraq war, which I strongly opposed, by the way, when Blair and Bush and all of those people wanted to start the war in Iraq. I said, yes, you will get through to Baghdad.

You will overthrow Saddam Hussein. And then your problems will really begin. And things will go from bad to worse. And where will we then be? So I don't think it takes great insight to see that. If Iran collapses, there will be all kinds of people making all kinds of triumphalist claims. We'll get a period lasting a couple of months of years. euphoria and then the problems, the real problems will begin.

Didn't we see the same with Afghanistan when the Kabul fell? And don't believe the media on Syria either. I'm telling you firsthand from talking with many people from Syria in Cyprus who approached me and tell me what it's like. They say it is hell in Syria. It's a complete freaking disaster, they say. So, I mean, I'm telling you that it did not work out well in Syria, even though the media is trying to push Al Jalani as some great democratic leader or something like that.

He's going to put the country together. The country is crumbling. The hockey goalie says, could a country carry out a strike on Israeli leadership? Would the U.S. see this as a chance to reset relations with Israel rather than retaliate? Well, who knows? I mean, again, I don't want to anticipate Iranian moves because, of course, if you're talking about a strike on the Israeli leadership, it will presumably come from Iran. I don't want to anticipate Iranian moves.

I don't know the full extent of Iranian capabilities. Last year, Iran showed capabilities which surprised me. I mean, they were able to strike targets in Israel, in Israeli bases, whether after these latest attacks they will still be able to do so. We shall just have to sit. Wellesie ball says Israel lacks the population numbers to maintain control over big amounts of new territory and they are far too pale to embrace immigration. Well, I have to just thought you're obvious, the points you're making about the demographics

are obvious. In fact, as I understand it, people are leaving Israel rather than going there and the economy is under strain. It is clearly overextended. And if it goes on overextending itself like this, it will put enormous stresses on Israeli society when stresses are already showing. Jonathan Sol says, Do you guys think Iran will shut down the strait of Hortemus?

Well, I think if we get into an all-out war situation involving the United States, yes, they will. I think at the moment, if they are able to contain their anger and people at this moment in time in Iran, within the leadership, are going to be extremely angry. But if they are able to contain their anger, then they will not probably do it now. Because I think they will want to build up as much diplomatic support as they can because they probably calculate rightly that it is through diplomatic support for the moment that they can get this thing stopped.

son of the Leviathan says, if the U.S. collapses, will it favor Mexico? Do the cartels run our government? Are we just a giant drug cartel now? Oh, my goodness. What a situation. I very, very much hope the United States does not collapse. I mean, I think anybody, even the enemies of the United States should not want it to collapse. I mean, be careful what you wish for. The idea of North America collapsing into disaster in that kind of way with nuclear weapons. as well is a possibility to terrify to consider. Eric Haverson, think that's a sticker sticker. Hattie Khrstaff says, will the possession of nukes lead to security? Well, increasingly not, it would seem. I mean, Iran, I think, probably would calculate, or some people in Iran probably calculated, if Iran requires nuclear weapons,

then it is safe from regime change attacks. But exactly as Alex said, if Iran starts moving towards acquiring nuclear weapons, then it's difficult to see how the United States would not become involved in a war against Iran. The Senate of the Leviathan says the U.S. was a British company. Maybe a Mexican flag will be more patriotic. I don't know why nobody is taking this seriously. Oh, dear. Well, I take it extremely serious.

I take the whole situation in California very, very seriously indeed, and the political situation in Washington very seriously and the situation of bond markets and all of those things. And I think that that is what Americans and America should be focusing on, not on who runs things in Tehran. But the neocons always think otherwise because they take America and American power for granted. And that is their terrible mistake.

Sertke says, why does Trump do everything Israel wants? His daughter is married to an arguably Zionist family. Trump gained favor from the Jewish lobby to his favor during elections. Still, to what end? Well, you partly answered the question. He obviously has people within his own family who lobby in the way that they do. But I suspect that in Trump's case, I mean, like so many Americans,

especially Americans of his generation, He has a very, very strong liking and feelings of loyalty to Israel and a very, very strong, visceral dislike of Iran. And I'm afraid it clouds his judgment. Tristan says Western governments are all now cacistocracies were effed. Yeah. Will Forrest says Trump says he gave Iran chances, warned of U.S. Israel power. claims hardliners are dead and says more destruction is coming just do it oh well I know exactly

so he so he says he thinks he's gaining leverage that this is exactly what I was saying over the course of the program he thinks that if he unleashes the Israelis he's going to get leverage and the Iranians will come round and will negotiate with him I think he's making a huge mistake Matthew says does this war in the Middle East expand to a world war I hope not and I think not I think that if we're talking about the Russians of the Chinese, why would they want to expand it into a world war? I think what we're more likely to see if it continues and escalates is a massive proxy war played out in the Middle East. Between the Iranians and the Israelis with the Chinese and the Russians, supporting the Iranians in all sorts of ways, including intelligence, weapons, all those kind of things. Perhaps the North Koreans also involved.

And as is of the balance, gradually shifting against Israel and the Americans. Fuzzy Ball says, imagine having to wake up next to Brigitte Macron every morning. Is it any wonder why Emmanuel Macron hates the world? Indeed so, yeah. Double down says unilateral action, a significant distinction. Unilateral action. I think that's going to become one of those famous expressions that we all talk about, you know, yeah, unilateral action. Sean Darby says thanks for the assessment. I think both you and Brian cover the vital points.

Thank you. Thank you for that, Sean. Rafael says, why must, we must admit Putin is working for Israel. Also, we have been played. Well, how is Putin working for Israel? I mean, what has Putin done that assists Israel in this matter? I mean, he's been trying to broker a deal between the, help the Americans of the Iranians, to deal with each other. And he's just signed a big security agreement with Iran and a big economic program with Iran, including the opening of plans to create rail and sea links to help integrate Iran into the BRIC system, which Iran has just joined. I mean, I can't see what exactly it is that Putin is doing, which is assisting Israel in this matter. Studio Rainer says, why does the U.S. news hide the fact that Mexico wants its territory back?

Will this be an informal agreement like how Russia formally controls East Ukraine? Perhaps the Spanish Empire triumphs in the end. Well, I can't believe that, to be honest. I think that long before we get to that point, if such bizarre plans exist in Mexico, Mexico will find itself at the receiving end of a huge amount. of American anger and it will not go well for Mexico at all. That's my own sense, anyway. Sergay says, why are the Europeans so do so do absolutely nothing about their insane governments?

Is it because they've been conditioned or because they lack firearms and the concept of freedom? Well, I think that there are some elements of truth in what you just said. I think that Europeans over the last 80, 90s, years have become very accustomed to good times and to trusting their governments. And that has caused atrophy, political atrophy, which we're paying the price for. Adam says, does the rules-based order still exist? Did it ever? No, it doesn't. I mean, what we have is a system of power, or it has been, by the way, which is becoming increasingly violent and increasingly reckless, because that's the other thing to say

about this attack on Iran. It is very reckless. Gtm says terrible news from Iran. Yeah. Matthew says, can China afford to let Iran fall? Well, the answer, yeah, but I think we've discussed this at blank on that. Yeah. NN says, talk to my friends and family in Thailand for a while, now that it's Ukraine, then Iran, then Taiwan. We must worry that we are heading into World War III. Studio Rainer says the neocons are controlled by the Mexican cartels. our senators got addicted to coke and here we are marx says isn't nereñahu becoming too dangerous

for too many people isn't he making himself a target with these provocations i'm sure he is actually i mean i i think that there was one iranian attack which did seem to be at least either targeting him or warning him but obviously he's not going to change Sergei says as a Russian American, I must say Putin has been messing up since 2015 and is way too lenient. Way, way, way over the top too lenient. The Russian militaries been wanting to go in and end Ukraine. I don't think that this has been true, actually. I think the more we've learned about the special military operation, the clearer it has become that the Russians, when they're

went into Ukraine in February 2022, still had a very, very long way to go in terms of developing their military forces to the level that they needed to be in order to defeat the collective West, which is what we've basically seen play out in Ukraine. It would have just been a case of Russia versus Ukraine. It would have been different. I mean, it would have been over within a few weeks. But the moment the West became involved and started to arm Ukraine, the Russians needed to build up their forces to the level that we're now seeing. And we're seeing how that's play out. El Casador says, what does it mean for bricks and the global economy?

The middle class in the West is shrinking very fast, taxed to the brink. The lower class might look for the guillotine and the elites. Well, if this crisis escalates and we start seeing disruptions in exports of oil and things of that kind, then of course it will deepen the inflation and depression crisis that is already affecting the West and the world. It'll also, by the way, be a bonanza for Russia, just to say. Claus says, will the BRICS countries react to one of their member countries being attacked? Yes, they will react.

I mean, they will obviously take diplomatic action, but they will do a great deal more. They will probably provide intelligence. That you can take as red. And as I said, if Iran comes through the next couple of weeks, then they will start to do more. They will start to provide Iran with technology and equipment and material in order that you better defend itself. Studio Rainer says, honestly, I think the Mexican flag is better than the American. In time, demographics are destiny.

We should just accept it now. Spanish Empire 2.0. Well, I'm not getting into this discovery. I don't believe these scenarios. I should make that clear. Monty 105 says in the case of the British, Putin is facing people unable to bear responsibility, even for their own souls. A reckless response is just not an option.

I think that if people in Britain were better informed, I think there would be a massive revulsion of feeling against what our government start doing. But I do think people are very well informed about it here. Take a pick 1313 says $45 a barrel for oil, says the EU. My $100 BP shares are going up and I bet today's

gas price goes up 5 to 10 cents today. Yeah, I'm sure you're right. It's going up. Yeah, it's going to go up. Tristan says tensions are becoming very tough. Wars are expanding. Threats are abounding and observed. We are in the moment of monumental change. Run, you fools. Well, absolutely. You're completely correct. And so much for the President of Peace,

which is what Donald Trump says he wants to be. As I still believe that he thinks that this is going to gain for him leverage. I suspect this is the story that Mark Levin and others like him sold him. And I think he could not be more wrong. As Alex said at the start of the program. He is out of his depth in this. Yeah, he's delusional if that's what he believes. Double down, Biden, Trump have the same foreign policy goals. I don't know. I don't, I don't exactly, I don't agree with that. I think that Trump really does believe in a system where this trade, I don't think he particularly wants the United States to be involved in many things of this guy. I think he has actually complete, in some ways, intelligent,

instincts about overstretch, about the fact that the United States is involved in too many things in too many parts of the world. But he has no idea how to gain

control of the foreign policy system. And as Alex correctly said, I don't think he understands how to conduct diplomacy, real international diplomacy at all. Now, he posts on truth social. That's become the new post on truth social are the

readouts. It's beyond stupid. It's ridiculous. It's beyond stupid, exactly. The U.S. government doesn't provide readouts of presidential conversations. Because he posted on truth. Because he posts it on truth social, which is ludicrous.

Jack Stone says, it's funny that the ethnic majority in the U.S. is already Hispanic. Deportations is an insane solution. Meanwhile, the empire is on the other. side of the world, I'd prefer a cartel over Lindsay Graham. Well, don't get to comment on that too much. I can't imagine anybody worse than Lindsay Graham, but some of the cartels are pretty grim.

The president, the foreign policy president of the United States, Mr. Lindsay Graham. Absolutely. Ken Nohara says, I'm still confused. Didn't the British invent Israel and the U.S. as clever vassals? if the US can't deport illegal immigrants, how can they possibly manage these wars? You're completely correct. I mean, the British, you're completely right about,

certainly what the British were doing in the Middle East. Robert says, what is the possibility for the fall of Israel in this conflict? I do think it's going to come any time soon. I think what is more likely to happen is that we could be find ourselves in a long, long attrition war, which is going to work out very badly to Israel's disadvantage. The risk is that this long attrition war is going to lead to an escalation, which could result in use of nuclear weapons,

in which case we could have outcomes, which I don't even want to imagine. Sergei says Americans are becoming increasingly tired of our government. We have legalized bribery, lobbying, and no term limits for any politicians. it may ultimately lead to the breakup of the union. Yeah. It's just on the final note, Alexander, it's ridiculous to watch Mitch McConnell sitting in the Senate talking to Pete Heggsett.

They're both talking about Ukraine escalating. Mitch McConnell. What is he doing in the Senate, this guy? Well, like four strokes, and he's still sitting there talking about escalating against Russia anyway. Well, that's everything. Wow, what a live street. What a life street.

Well, big news, but as I said, we'll keep an eye out. And obviously, as developers come, we will keep you informed, at least of all few years. We will continue to provide our commentary. Joanne says Iran funds terror. Israel sees Iran as a threat. Pray for innocence on both sides. Well, indeed. I mean, Iran funds various groups.

It supports in the Middle East. And so, by the way, does Israel? Transport says, is Iran incapable of taking out? Israeli leaders. I doubt it, actually. Whether they are going to do that, we'll just have to wait and see. And Ken Nohara says, why did the British invent the Jews? Was it to legitimize the Holy Land or 6D Chess? No, they didn't invent the Jews, but they did facilitate the creation of the state of Israel unquestionably by allowing, by creating the Balfour Declaration and all of that in the 20s and 30s. And they did that because, as somebody correctly said, it fitted in very well with their own projects, their own imperial projects in the Middle East at that time.

All right. That's everything. Thank you to everyone that watched us on Odyssey, on Rockfail, on Rockfane, Rumble, YouTube, and the durand.orgals.com. And thank you to our moderators, Zarael, Brett, Angry Warhawk. Who else? I think that's everybody that was moderating today. I hope I didn't miss anybody. All right, we'll be back with some videos. Indeed, we will. Indeed, we will.

We work continues. All right, take care, everybody.