The Duran Podcast - Istanbul circus. Sanctions trap set for Trump

Episode Date: May 15, 2025

Istanbul circus. Sanctions trap set for Trump

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the talks that are taking place in Istanbul, that are about to take place in Istanbul. They were scheduled for 10 o'clock this morning. Now they've been pushed back till 2 o'clock local time, Turkey local time, because Zelensky is just now this morning he's flying into Ankara. He's going to meet with Erdogan. and then he's going to send his delegation team to Istanbul or choose his delegation team or maybe not even choose a team at all.

Who knows? Who knows? The whole thing has become a complete circus. Trump yesterday, he said that he's not going to go today. He said maybe he will go. Trump also mentioned that when Putin found out he was not going to go, then when Putin found out that Trump was not going to go, then Putin decided. not to go. That's what Trump is running with. The whole thing has descended into a complete,

a complete clown show. It's become a complete clown show. The Europeans are pressing for sanctions. Zelensky was going to drop out yesterday, but then the Europeans told them you can't drop out. The media is running with stories saying that Putin was too chicken to meet with Olensky in Istanbul. Meanwhile, the Russians put together a team. They named their team Yesterday, Lavrov is not going to be there. Ushikov is not going to be there. There were reports originating from the Washington Post. And the entire media picked it up saying that it was going to be Lavrov and

Uschikov yesterday evening Putin announced his team. And it's a good team. A very well, yeah, a very well qualified team. And it is a continuation from the 2022 meetings. Actually, it's taking place. Well, it might take place in the exact same room as, as, as the Istanbul 2022 talk. So it seems like the Russians have been going by the book in putting this together and Ukraine has just taken this to a circus level. Anyway, your thoughts? Well, I think

you've actually summed up the situation very, very well. The way to look at this is you're dealing with a team of consumer professionals who are going about their business. They're about their business methodically. And they decided to, you know, simply close the curtains and not listen to any of the din and noise that is coming from Europe and Ukraine and to a certain extent from the United States. Just to go and Brazil as well. You forgot to mention that Lula himself has also decided to, you know, involve himself in this.

Why? Well, we'll come. Let's just deal with him in a moment. Yeah, we'll talk about that. The Russians, as I said, they did exactly what they said they would do, what Putin said he would do on Saturday. They said Putin said on Saturday that he would send a negotiating team to Istanbul on Thursday. The Russians have worked on sorting out their negotiating team. There has never been any moment at any time when it's ever been suggested by anybody in Russia that Putin himself would go.

This has never been a possibility. As we've discussed in program after program over the last couple of days, if Putin had decided to go, it would have demonstrated that the whole thing was completely not serious, even on the Russian side. It would have meant that the Russians would have themselves become part of this cartoon strip story, which is what everybody else has been living. in. So the Russians organize a negotiating team, and it's a very, very strong team indeed. Now, what they're doing is that they're saying this is the continuation of the April 22

Istanbul negotiations. There were several weeks of negotiations that took place between Russia and Ukraine in February, March, early April 22. Notice that there was no ceasefire in place. whilst those negotiations were underway. Those negotiations were headed by a man called Medinsky, who is one of Putin's aides. Most people feel that he is not a particularly strong negotiator. He's not somebody with an enormous amount of diplomatic experience, but of course he does have experience now

because he was the person who headed the Russian team back in 2022. Anyway, the Russians have stopped with him because what then happened was that, as we know, a provisional deal was reached in Istanbul in April 2022. The Russians and the Ukrainians initialed it. The Russians, at the request, as we now also know, of the Europeans, pull their troops back from Kiev, and then the Ukrainians refused to show. You mean the goodwill, Jeff? is what you're talking about.

The goodwill gesture. The Ukrainians were supposed to respond to certain Russian points, which were intended to finalize the agreement that was reached in April 2020, or this initial in April 2022 in Istanbul. The Russians then put forward their points about that, and the Ukrainians never responded. And in fact, not only did they not respond, they moved forward. with their offensives in Kharkov and Hirsson and in October 2022. Zelensky published his decree, which prohibited negotiations with the Russians at all.

And all the talk thereafter became all about winning the war and about the summer 2023 counter-offensive, which failed disastrously. But we will not get sidetracked into all of that. Now, the Russians have always said that they're prepared to. to continue negotiations that began in Istanbul and which were moving successfully forward in Istanbul in April 2022. Those negotiations were interrupted. The Russians said that they should be resumed. That is what Putin said when he spoke to the foreign ministry on the 14th of June, 2024. That is why we on the Duran have always referred to the Russian proposals, the ones that Putin

outlined in at the foreign ministry on the 14th of June, 24 as Istanbul plus. We've always described it in that way, because it was supposed to build on what was agreed in Istanbul. And the Russians have now said, this is the moment to resume the negotiations. They've always been saying that they're ready to resume the negotiations. Apparently Putin told all the leaders who came to Moscow for the Victory Day parade, Fizzo, Xi Jinping, Lula, all of them, that he was absolutely willing to resume the direct negotiations with the Ukrainians. He also has repeatedly said that to Whitgolf. That has always been the Russian position.

The Russians have never deviated from that position. Putin said that he would put a negotiating team together to continue from where the negotiations in Istanbul left off, but taking into account the changes, the territorial and other changes. that have happened since then, since April 2022. And the Russians have picked a negotiating team, which, since this is a continuation of Istanbul,

logically has the same chief negotiator, who is Medinsky. I mean, it makes complete sense. Now, having said that, the rest of the negotiating team is very, very much stronger than the negotiating team that the Russians put together when they negotiated with the Ukrainians the first time round. And there's many, many more people from the military. The Russian deputy foreign minister who's participating, a man called Galuzin, who by the way is a pretty tough character by all accounts, he's senior to the Russian foreign minister. ministry official who was representing the foreign ministry in the previous talks. The key person

to look at is a man called Kostakov, who is the head of the GRU, Russian military intelligence. He's actually an admiral of the Russian Navy. He is, in other words, the head of Russian military intelligence. The organization that we've all been hearing about so much, the GRU, he is probably the person who is going to do the heavy work. And this time, unlike what we saw in the previous round of negotiations in 2022, there is a very, very strong team of experts who are also joining and who are going to be there in order presumably to take this process forward. So it's a much bigger team, a much stronger team than the one that we saw back in 2022. It's headed, by the same chief negotiator, Medinsky, despite, as I said, he's inexperienced, because it emphasizes

the continuity between this negotiation and the previous negotiation. We can see, though, that the military are going to play a very big role in this negotiation going forward. And it's going to be conducted exactly as you said by pre-arrangement with Erdogan in the same room, in the same palace in Istanbul, the palace that used to be the palace where the Turkish sultans used to live in the 19th century, and which, by the way, was Kemal Ataturk's residence. So, you know, this is exactly what the Russians said. And contrary to all the nonsense that you're hearing, coming out of Europe at the moment.

This is not a son that the Russians aren't serious about these negotiations. It's not that they're evading negotiations because Putin isn't going. If Putin had gone, we would not have had substantive negotiations. What we have is a strong negotiating team. The fact that Putin isn't there means that this is a serious negotiating effort. And the big question now is, what are the Ukrainians going to do? Because at this moment in time, as at the moment of making this program, it's all over the place. We had Zelensky initially say he wasn't going to negotiate.

He wanted the ceasefire first. Then he said that he would negotiate, but only with Putin because Putin is the only person he can negotiate with. He then said that he's the only person who's able to negotiate because everybody else in Ukraine is prohibited from negotiating because of his October 22 decree, which he refuses to rescind, by the way. So he would be the person to conduct the negotiations. Then he won't negotiate now because Putin isn't there. Now he will negotiate. Now he's gone to Ankara instead of Istanbul.

Why he's gone to anchor it, I have absolutely no idea. or while he's going to anchor it's not clear whether he's bringing negotiators with him. It's not clear whether there's no negotiators are going to meet with the Russians. If they do meet with the Russians, will this mean that the team, the decree of October 22 has been rescinded? Or, and this is the other key difference from Istanbul 1, the Americans this time are there. Rubio, Whitgolf and Kellogg are all there. Will the Ukrainians negotiate in Istanbul through the Americans? Will they meet with the Americans and pass on their ideas to the Americans who will then pass

them on to the Russians? That sort of thing does happen in negotiations. And that might be reconcilable in some ways with Zelensky's decree. But of course, that brings the Americans right into the middle of the negotiations. And of course, the danger from a Ukrainian point of view is at that point, it starts to look like a negotiation between America and Russia with Ukraine playing a secondary role. And I would have thought that the Ukrainians would not want that. But anyway, they got to sort themselves out. It's up to them.

We'll see what they do. At this moment in time, it's not even clear to me that, anybody is actually coming from the Ukrainian side to Istanbul at all, though I think that probably they will, because Donald Trump wants them to. And I think the Ukrainians and the Europeans dare not go against Donald Trump. So the negotiations, same place, same chief negotiator for Russia. Zelensky and Ankara. Why? That's a big question that I have. Why is he an Ankara meeting with Erdogan? Is he really meeting with Erdogan? Come on. I think there's going to be other people there who are going to be meeting with Zelensky. There's a NATO foreign ministers conference, I believe in Antalya, taking place at the same time. The foreign minister of Ukraine. I forget the guy's name. Who cares? No, I forget.

What his name is anyway. The guy that replaced Kuleba, the guy that replaced Kuleba. Yeah, the guy that replaced Kulebo. That's what I call him. Anyway, he met with Graham. What is Lindsay Graham doing in Turkey? Foreign ministers meeting of NATO. Rubio was there, but why is Graham there?

The Europeans, they had a big meeting in Turkey as well, all the foreign ministers. There seems to be a lot of a lot. of discussion and debate going on as to how they're going to play this. I don't think they have any idea how they're going to play this or how they're going to spin this. The only thing that they've concluded as far as how they're going to spin this with regards to the media narrative is that they're going to say that Zelensky showed up. Putin did not show up and therefore Trump, you have to place sanctions on Russia. Because at the end of the day, that's the goal. That's what they want to have happen. And this is the way they're going to spin.

it to the wider public. Zelensky, Churchill number two, was brave. He was brave and courageous. I believe Stomer or Mertz actually said this. He was brave and courageous. He ended up traveling to Turkey, ready to meet with Putin, and Putin decided not to show up. Therefore, you as President Trump, you have to put bone crushing sanctions, Lindsey Graham bone crushing sanctions on Russia. and Ukraine, Zelensky actually said in an interview, I believe, with Spiegel, that once those U.S. sanctions are placed on Russia, it's over. It's over for the Russian Federation. This is the belief that they have in their heads. I mean, another wonder weapon, this time the wonder weapon is the U.S. sanctions, not that the U.S. hasn't already placed 500,000 sanctions on Russia

anyway. Your thoughts. Well, exactly. I mean, this is the key thing to understand, because the Europeans and the Ukrainians are demanding a ceasefire. Zolensky is also saying that the only thing he's prepared to talk about with the Russians is a ceasefire, which the Russians have already said that's not enough. This is impossible. So the entire effort by Europe and by Lindsay Graham and his people in Washington has been to try to get Donald Trump to sign off on further sanctions against Russia. They don't, I think, really believe that the Russians are going to agree to a ceasefire. Why would the Russians agree to a ceasefire at this particular point in time, given that the Russians are winning the war? I mean, it makes absolutely no sense. Besides, the Russians have repeatedly rejected that idea.

Putin rejected it when he spoke to the foreign ministry. in June 24. The Russians have never really retreated from that position. There's been, Putin had a discussion with Donald Trump, as we know, back in March. He told Trump very clearly, I'm not interested in a ceasefire unless in stringent conditions on a ceasefire are imposed, that Ukraine can't be re-armed, that it can't get intelligence, conditions which for the moment at least, the Americans are not prepared to get. So the entire story has been to try to get Donald Trump to sign up for sanctions against Russia. When the Europeans are complaining that on Saturday, they thought they had Putin cornered. It wasn't Putin that they really thought

they had cornered. They thought they'd cornered Trump. They want Trump to sign off on sanctions, because they expect the sanctions, really, to make any difference by this point. Well, perhaps some of them do. I mean, they're so deluded now that maybe they do think that. I think a lot. I think some of them do. Probably they've talked themselves into thinking this. But the point I'm making is ultimately they want Trump to commit to sanctions because they believe that if Trump commits to sanctions, he is once again fully engaged in Project Ukraine. That's really what it's all about. So negotiations with Russia and reconciliation with Russia ends, normalization of relations with Russia, ends. We are back to where we were in December, January, December, 24 with

Joe Biden before Donald Trump became president. That is the entire objective. That's what the Europeans have been trying to get Trump to do ever since he started this process. That is what Stama and Macro I've been trying to do. That's what the Ukrainians have been trying to do. And that is what Lindsay Graham has been trying to do. And that is why Lindsay Graham is now in Turkey, because he also wants to play a role in getting this whole process to collapse so that Trump signs off on the sanctions that Lindsay Graham has been trying to get him to agree to. So this is, this is, This is what this is all about. It's not about negotiations. Zeletsky isn't interested in negotiations. If he was generally interested in negotiations, he would rescind his October 22 decree. If the Europeans

were interested in negotiations, they would tell Zelensky to rescind his October 22 decree. This whole thing is about persuading Donald Trump that Putin is somehow dragging his heels so that when Putin sends an extremely strong negotiating team to negotiate in Istanbul, as he says he would do, that isn't Putin sending a strong negotiating team to Istanbul. It's Putin somehow hiding in Moscow because he's terrified of meeting with Zelensky. as I said, cartoon strip stuff. I mean, stuff straight out of Flash Gordon or something. I mean, it's just ridiculous.

I mean, it's absurd. It's on that kind of level. But it's intended to try to persuade Trump and some of Trump's advisors. He's got Kellogg, obviously, advocating all of this. And Kellogg is also in Turkey, by the way. Whitkoff is in Turkey. Rubio is in Turkey. Kellogg is in Turkey.

It's all about trying to get. get Donald Trump to sign off on the sanctions, which will recommit the United States to project Ukraine and end any possibility of the United States moving forward with a normalization of its relations with Russia. That is what this is ultimately entirely about. Yeah, the trap has been set, not for Russia or Putin. The trap has been set for Trump. Exactly. That's what all of this is about. This entire circus is all about trapping Trump into a project Ukraine to keep the weapons flowing, whatever weapons they have left, to keep the money flowing.

At the end of the day, that's what it's all about. You got to keep the washing machine spinning. That's what's most important to the Europeans. Just take a look at Ursula and PfizerGate. If you want some context as to what's most important to the Europeans, keep the washing machine spinning. That's what's most important to Graham and the neocons. They want to keep this thing going and their greatest fear is that Trump is going to pull out

of this and of course for NATO as well because NATO at the end of the day is a business. It is a business and for CEO Mark Routa, he wants to make sure that the US is still committed to NATO because the US is what drives revenue into NATO. That's how it works. That's what the mineral rights extraction deal became. If you look at that, you, you, you, you, you, you. understand everything. I mean, nobody, I mean, I, maybe they do at some, you know, fantastic level believe that the next round of sanctions is going to somehow crush Russia, which it isn't.

Maybe they think that more arms deliveries will defeat Russia. It won't. I mean, Macron has actually given an interview in which he said, you know, we've given Ukraine everything. We've got, we can't give Ukraine anymore. Our army isn't even configured for this kind of war. very, very interesting admission, by the way, from Macro. So it's not about that. It is about keeping the washing machine working. This is all that it's about. It is about nothing else, ultimately. And you can't keep the washing machine working if Donald Trump wants to switch it off. And of course, he's got his finger on the switch. He can switch it off. So the whole point about him about this is to get him to take his finger off the switch. That's all that this is about.

Yeah, just some quick questions before we wrap up the video. Quick question. One of the goals for the Russian team is to secure the release of Russian citizens from Kursk that are being held by Ukraine, true? Absolutely. This is absolutely true. I mean, there's a really rather horrifying report, which the Russians have published, which I'm afraid I believe, by the way, which is saying that the Ukrainians are holding some of these citizens and basically using them as hostages. These are citizens, not soldiers. These are civilians in order to try to extract essentially Azov Brigade people from Russia. And if you actually actually look at the makeup of the Russian negotiating team. You see that some of the people who are

involved, who are participating, are the kind of people you would expect to participate in order to achieve that objective. Now, what I suspect will, but the Russians are hoping for is that they will get the Americans involved in some way. I'm assuming that some of these negotiators will meet with the Americans, even if they're not. The Ukrainians fail to show that they will speak to the Americans and they will try to get the Americans to do something about this. Whether the Americans will or won't, we'll just have to wait and see. But you're absolutely correct. That is a major priority for the Russians.

It is an immediate priority for the Russians. It's all over the Russian media, by the way. It's a big, big story. But in the West, they're not talking about it. Well, the West are not. Well, they're never talking about any of these things. We're talking about it. But in the West media, they're not talking about it.

Exactly. With exactly. Churchill, what Zelensky Churchill, doing things like this. Of course, impossible. As of people having, you know, strange views and frightening tattoos and subscribing to certain ideologies, impossible. These are heroic people who are fighting gallantly to defend Ukraine. This story is one that no section of the mainstream. media in the West will touch.

Yeah. Well, Pierce Morgan says that there are no Nazis in Ukraine. So, Pierce Morgan is always right. We have to believe it. Next question. What is Lula doing? It's not only Lula. There are reports saying that even, I can't confirm this, but Lula, I think, is confirmed.

Yeah. But there are reports which claim that even China tried to pressure Putin to go. I don't know if that's true. No, I am sure that is not true. Okay. Actually. But Lula, I think is confirmed. I'm going to tell you why, because first of all, I've seen no hint or suggestion of this from anyone in China.

And I understand that Putin and Xi Jinping, what Putin briefed Xi Jinping on his entire negotiating strategy with the Ukrainians whilst Xi Jinping was in Moscow. And I have absolutely no doubt whatsoever that Xi Jinping green lighted it. The point to understand is that Xi Jinping has been conducting his dealings with the Americans in exactly the same way as Putin has been conducting his deals with the Americans, just as the Americans have been pressing Putin to have summit meetings with Trump, just as the Americans and the Europeans and the Ukrainians have been trying to push for summit meetings with Zelensky, between Putin and Zelensky. So the Americans have been pushing for summit meeting, some kind of summit meeting

between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. And Xi Jinping has consistently refused in exactly the same way as Putin has consistently refused. And for the same reason, they say, in a summit meeting now, what is that going to achieve? before we get to the point of having a summit meeting, we have to prepare the ground, we have to move forward, we've got to sort out all of the major issues, we've got to prepare the agenda properly, this is something that takes time and it can't be sorted out in a day. And I've no reason to doubt that that remains the Chinese position in relation to their

own dealings with the Americans. And I have no doubt that the Chinese, for their own, that very same reason, fully understand and support the fact that the Russians are approaching things in exactly the same way. If China really wanted Putin to go to Istanbul, we would have had clear indications that that was the case. They give no such indications that that was the case at all. This is all noise, and I think we can simply disregard it. That's China. As for Lula, Lula has spoken about this openly. He was actually Beijing. He then stopped over in Moscow.

He wanted to talk to Putin to try to get Putin to go to Istanbul. I'm afraid, sorry to say this, but if you know anything about Lula, he does this. He's always the kind of person who wants to insert himself into a big negotiation like this. He has this fault that many people do. self-importance and wanted to appear important. And he thought that he would be the person who would persuade Putin to go to Istanbul and he would be given the credit for it in the global media and with his friends or former friends on the left in the United States. And what actually happened was that Putin didn't meet with him. And because he was meeting, incidentally,

the Prime Minister of Malaysia, but that's another story. And the whole thing was just the Russians just shrug their shoulders and let Lula go his way. Lula has been something of an irritant for the Russians throughout this whole process. He's tried at various times to get the Russians to agree to ceasefires. He's tried to get summit meetings between Putin and Zelensky. The weird thing about this is that Lula at the same time has made him very absolute. clear that he doesn't like Zelensky at all and refuses to meet within himself. Yeah, but I've heard that Lula does this because he does have a good relationship with

Macron. Yeah. And with France, yeah. Exactly. And he's friends, he's friends in the West. He's got friends in the United States too in the Democratic Party. So he wants to keep all of these people on side. I do think we should take this very seriously, actually. It doesn't seem to have any effect on Lula's underlying relationship and Brazil's underlying relationship with Russia, which, by the way, was also close, just saying, when Bolsonaro was president, I think that Brazil has a good relationship with Russia now, and it's what is sometimes called an all-weather friendship. Yeah. Macron, an interesting guy exerts a lot of influence on people.

I don't know how he does it. It's a very strange. Very strange, exactly. Very, very strict. I have some theories as to why, but anyway. A final question, and we'll wrap up the video. The hawks, the Neocon hawks, they're going to push for Trump to stay engaged with Project Ukraine because the ramp up to conflict with China has pretty much been extinguished.

Yes. has been put on the back burner now. That's how it looks to me. So I think even the China Hawks are going to say, okay, we're not going to get into a conflict with China in the next three, four, five years. So we've got to keep Ukraine going. Exactly. That's no question.

I've got to bear in mind that some of the neocons, most of the neocons, have wanted to keep project Ukraine going all along. Yeah. And, you know, I mean, there's a faction amongst them that's a priority China first. But I think they come to realize that that isn't quite as straightforward, is that the issue. So I think we're getting to see a reunification of the neocons around, you know, Russia first again. And the neocons in Washington are working hand in glove with the Europeans. I mean, Kellogg is clearly one of the.

contact people. I mean, he says so. I mean, he makes no secret of the fact. Now, it's a very interesting speech that Trump gave in Saudi Arabia, where he went, he was more critical of the neocons, and by the way, called them by that name, which they don't like. They don't like being called neocons, by the way. But anyway, he called them by that name. He was absolutely, he was absolutely scathing about them and about the damage that they have done to the Middle East and about the damage that they have done to the United States' position on the Middle East. It's the strongest anti-Neicom speech that he has ever given. And I have to say, when I read it and the White House has been very, very slow in providing

details of it, which is very interesting in itself and rather concerning, by the way. But I wonder whether it reflects the frustrations that Trump feels about the pressure that's being pushed, filed on him to get back behind Project Ukraine. I think he deep down simply doesn't believe in this project. And the fact that they're pushing him all the time to get back involved in it is something that he resents massively. But it looks as if he's a. for all kinds of reasons, he's not prepared to break with them over it.

Yeah, I mean, it's not about belief anymore. I think it's about the washing machine. That's my own sense of it. It's entirely about the washing machine. How do things about believing it anymore? This is the other thing to understand about the neocons and the Europeans. They talk a big, idealistic game. One of the things I long ago discovered, I think we've talked about this actually many times.

I think you've had your own experience about this. people who talk in that kind of way about idealism, about human rights, about, you know, defending the oppressed, about protecting, you know, the weak countries against the big countries. They're the people. You should be most alert to the possibility that they are in it for the money, just to say. Those who talk in a much more sober, realistic way are always ultimately the least cynical. Cool. All right. We'll end the video there and we'll wait and see what happens in Istanbul. The durand.com. We are on locals. We are on Rumble and Odyssey, Telegram, and X. Go to the Duran shop. Pick up some merch like what we are wearing in this video. Update. The link is the description box down below. Take care.