The Duran Podcast - Istanbul Plus June 2024 terms or military solution

Episode Date: May 16, 2025

Istanbul Plus June 2024 terms or military solution

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the talks in Istanbul, because yesterday we had no talks. A lot of delaying, a lot of trash talking. Boy, does Zelensky know how to trash talk. And he never even went to Istanbul. He went to Ankara, met with Erdogan, and then got on a plane and went to Albania because there's some European forum meeting, another one of these. meetings that Europe has every couple of days. Anyway, he went to that event in Albania. He was in Turkey for about five hours, four or five hours. That's it. Had to sit down with Erdogan and

then got on a plane and took off. So he never even made it to Istanbul. The Russian delegation waited in Istanbul. And they waited and they waited and they waited and they waited. And they waited. And we finally, at least we finally got the green light from Elensky for a negotiating team to be set up and to meet with the Russians today. As we're recording this video, they are in meetings. From what I understand, the format, at least according to Turkish media, is that there will be meetings between the U.S., Ukraine, and Turkey. and then there are going to be meetings between Turkey, Ukraine, and Russia. Rubio, by the way, is in Istanbul as well. So your thoughts, Alexander.

Well, it is a circus. It's exactly the right word. I mean, it was an absolute chaos yesterday. It was a circus, by the way, as somebody pointed out to me, is actually, I mean, circuses are far better organized than what we saw yesterday. I mean, people work there. People do hard work in circuses. What we saw yesterday was absolutely unbelievable.

And I have to say this. I mean, what is shocking about Zelensky's behavior is that people treat it as somehow, you know, acceptable and normal. So, you know, he flies to Turkey. He doesn't go to Istanbul. These are supposed to be talks that are going to happen in Istanbul. he makes one statement off for another. He changes his position from one minute to an hour to another. He says one moment he's not going to talk to anybody if Putin isn't there. The next moment, he says nobody can speak to the Russians directly except him and he's not prepared to speak to

the Russians. He refuses to send a delegation that he is sending a delegation. He eventually gets hold up in a meeting with Erdogan, which goes on for three hours. That's a massive meeting, three-hour meeting. And my only sense of this is that he didn't want to participate in any talks in Istanbul at all. He at the same time doesn't want to antagonize Trump and the Americans who do want a meeting. So he gets hold up in this meeting with Erdogan, and I suspect what happened is that the whole meeting was basically Erdogan telling him, you've got to send a delegation to Ankara. And I get to make a further guess.

I suspect throughout that meeting there were calls to Rubio and other American officials, all of them trying to get Zelensky to finally appoint the delegation to go to Istanbul. And then eventually he gives this, well, it's called a press conference, but it's really a long rant, which goes on forever and he talks pretty much without interruptions. He talks bizarrely about how the Russians who are doing exactly that which they always said they would do, which is sent a delegation to negotiate in Istanbul, how they're showing disrespect to Trump, disrespect to him, disrespect to everybody and all of that.

But eventually, finally, he does put a delegation together, and that delegation is going to Istanbul. And we are, I mean, apparently they've arrived, and apparently they're going to be meetings. And the key thing to say is that the format is essentially the same as the one that we saw in 2022. They meet in the same room in the Dom al-Badha Palace. the Turks were present at the meetings back in 2022. They are present at the talks this time. They're chairing the meetings because they're the host. They brought in the delegations to speak to them in advance.

They spoke to the Russians. The Turks spoke to the Russians yesterday. They're speaking to the Ukrainians today. What is different this time and could make all the difference, either for good or for bad is that the Americans are also participating. And remember, when we got the agreement in Istanbul last time in April 2022, the Americans basically didn't like it, the Biden administration didn't like it, and they sabotaged it.

This time, the Americans are actually involved directly in the discussions. there will be there in the room. And we'll see where this goes. So, you know, this is a chaotic approach of Zelensky. And we see all over the media, all the commentaries in Europe, treating this as absolutely proper and, you know, normal behavior by a head of state. Nobody asks the question, why does Zelensky even go to Turkey at all? if he's not going to Istanbul, why does Zelensky, if he's going to Turkey, go to Ankara instead of Istanbul, if he's going to go to Turkey, if he's going to go to Turkey, why does he waste Erdogan's time for three hours? Either he negotiates or he doesn't. Either he sends a negotiating team or he doesn't. I mean, it's just, I mean, the whole thing was absolutely bizarre. It wasted a whole day. It took up an enormous amount of energy. We should. see this narrative about the Russians sending some kind of, you know, piffling, underlings to

Istanbul gain traction and people write about it and accept it as true and say, you know, that Putin has dodged this meeting. When it was entirely Zelensky's idea that Putin would come to this meeting, Putin never gave any indication that he was going to come to this meeting. But anyway, one way or the other, we now have talked. apparently going to start today in Istanbul. Now Zelensky says that the only subject for discussion is going to be the 30-day ceased fire.

That is what the Ukrainians are saying. The Russians have basically poured cold water on that. Lavrov, Miroshenik, was another Russian diplomat. We'll see whether this goes or whether this even gets started. We'll see how this thing moves from this point on. But anyway, the Americans are going to be in the room. There are some people in Russia who are very nervous about that. They're saying that that means that the Russian delegation is going to be outnumbered.

Well, in a kind of a sense, that's true. Against that, this is a very strong Russian delegation. And the key point about it is that the military are involved in it. So we have the head of the military intelligence there. And when you look at the meeting that Putin called in order to agree the terms of the remit of the Russian delegation, the military were heavily involved in that as well. And something which has been completely misreported in the West, a senior military official, an actual soldier, has now been appointed to the apparatus of the Security Council. This is General Selukov, who was the head of the ground forces.

And one gets the sense that he's going to be involved also in keeping an eye on these diplomatic processes as well. So we'll see where this goes. But I mean, a chaotic start to these negotiations with the Russians going out of their way, for the moment at least, to say that this is going to be a, a resumption of the Istanbul process of 2022, and that it's intended to address the root causes of the conflict. So we'll see where this goes. Russia's been saying that for over a year now. June 2024, we're almost at June 2025. Russia has been saying root causes for one freaking year.

We've had Russia's terms for one year, and no one talks about it in the collective West, not the The media, not any leader, not any foreign minister. No one dares to mention June 2024 Putin's terms as he said them during a speech at the foreign ministry. No one dares to mention this. We're one year into this. What a spoiled actor, Zelensky is. He's a spoiled actor and everyone in the collective West, including the Trump administration, after the fight at the White House, including the Trump administration, everyone in Europe,

they baby the guy. Absolutely. They baby him. It is unbelievable. He is a definition of spoiled actor who just gets babyed everywhere he goes. And because he gets babied everywhere he goes, he gets more and more spoiled. And he asks for more and more things. Why did Russia stay?

Well, good question. delegation stay in Istanbul. Well, very, very, very... It's embarrassing, isn't it? Well, it is embarrassing. It's embarrassing. It's embarrassing. I mean, let's call it like it is.

Yeah. It is embarrassing to have someone tell you we're going to meet at 10 o'clock. And then they say, oh, there's going to be a delay until 2 o'clock. Okay. No, no, no, no. There's going to be a delay until 6 o'clock. Meanwhile, all they're doing is trash talking you. They're trash talking you, your country, your qualifications as negotiators, your president,

your people. They're just trash talking you nonstop as you're sitting in Istanbul. And then they tell you at 6 o'clock, we're going to have a meeting tomorrow. So just sit tight and we'll take the meeting tomorrow. Sorry, I thought it was my view of things. I'm sure you'll explain why they stayed. And I think I understand why they stayed. But enough's enough.

Sooner or later, you have to say if you're Russia, you have to say, if you're Russia, You have to say, you know what, we said Thursday. Our team's there six hours. You guys are not serious. We're taking our stuff and we're leaving. I know. Am I being too hard line? No, you're not being too hard.

I mean, the reason they stayed is very simple. The Americans and the Turks asked them to stay. So what? So what? I know. I know. So what? The United States and Turkey are Turkey supplying weapons to Ukraine and the United States.

We know what the United States is doing with Ukraine. So what? I know. I know. I know, but that was the reason. I mean, the Americans and the Turks asked them to stay. Yeah, but other countries are also expecting them to stay. China, Brazil, all of these places want to stay.

So this is why they stayed. And, you know, I have to say, again, having been involved in many, many negotiations, this is not so unusual. I mean, I have been, I've turned up for negotiations myself. I've been expecting people to turn up. They don't turn up. There's usually roused, hysteria, anger, tantrums, all that kind of things. It's that unusual, by the way, in some types of negotiations, not typical in diplomatic negotiations.

But then eventually, as I said, they do come and then you start talking and it cannot, sometimes it isn't very easy. But anyway, that's the decision the Russians made. They've always been saying that they are prepared to resume talks with the Ukrainians. and they took that political decision. They sent a delegation to Istanbul. They weren't prepared to bring it back, not whilst the possibility of a meeting was still in the air. So, you know, that was the decision they made.

I suspect there are people in Russia who are asking that very same question. And they were saying, you know, why are we even meeting with the Ukrainians? Is it really useful to us to have the Americans there. I'm going to suggest that in some ways it probably is. Again, maybe the closest analogy is the Vietnam negotiations which took place in Paris. Many people don't know this, but we had exactly the same kind of theatrics from the South Vietnamese. Well, similar theatrics, not quite as bad as

this, from the South Vietnamese in advance of those negotiations. There were, was months of rouse about the table, the kind of layout of the table. Eventually, the negotiations did get underway. The North Vietnamese stayed where they were. And over time, the negotiations became negotiations between the North Vietnamese and the Americans, because the Americans were in the room. And the South Vietnamese were, basically eased out. And I would not be surprised, given that the Americans are going to be in the room this time, if we start to get something similar. Well, maybe, maybe we will, but I think it's moving in a totally, maybe a similar direction,

but it's going way past that because now the narrative coming from the United States is that the only two people that can solve the conflict in Ukraine is Trump and Putin. Well, this is... And it's no coincidence. Yes. It's no coincidence that Trump said this. Yes. That Rubio said this, that what's his name?

Gorka? Gorka said this. It's not that he's a high-level official, but anyway, he said it as well. So you have all of these U.S. officials now pretty much saying the same thing, which is that the only way to solve this conflict is for Trump and Putin to meet. That's the only way you solve this. So we've gone from Russia, Ukraine, bilateral talks, without any preconditions, to Trump and Putin now meeting. It seems like everything's now been scrapped, everything, just forget about everything.

What we really need now is the U.S. president and the Russian president sitting down to solve Project Ukraine. Comment on that, and then also answer the question to what end? I mean, what is, is Trump ready to listen to the terms, the June 2024 terms? Is he ready to agree to those? Is he speaking on behalf of Ukraine as the country that has the proxy, the U.S., Ukraine is the U.S. is proxy? So is he speaking on the proxy's behalf now? I mean, what, because of the minerals deal, now that he owns pretty much all of Ukraine,

can he now speak on behalf of Ukraine? I mean, to what end is this meeting? What's the goal of the meeting between Putin and Trump? With regards to Ukraine, I would say that they have a lot of other things to talk about. They have a lot of diplomacy to conduct. They have the normalization of relations. They have to talk about so many other topics. Ukraine is just one of many topics.

All excellent questions. And can I say straight away again, I mean, there's good grounds from a Russian point of view to be very nervous about this process. But let's just unpack it and let's go a little bit back. You know, we have the Americans. They come in. To repeat again, I don't think they should have involved themselves in this process at all. I think Trump, the Americans are going to have no end of trouble as a result of this.

But that's another story. Let's park that to one side now. Okay. The Americans come in. They want negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. they want the negotiations to be preceded by a ceasefire. The Russians refuse a ceasefire. Arwit Putin said, no.

There's no sign at the moment that the Russians are going to move or shift from that position. The Americans had gone insisting on a ceasefire. They had meetings with Zelensky. They get Zelensky to agree to a ceased fire. The ceasefire proposal is picked up by the Europeans. We have Kellogg's plan, the whole idea of sending European troops to Ukraine as part of a ceasefire. All of that, the Russians maintain their position. They're not interested in a ceasefire.

They are prepared to engage in direct negotiations. And we've now got to a position, which basically is the Russian position. We have direct negotiations and we have no ceasefire. I mean, just a few days ago, just on Saturday, Kellogg was saying, ceasefire first negotiations after. The Russian position, negotiations first, then eventually, if those work, we move towards a ceasefire. If you are going to settle this conflict diplomatically, which I'm not by any means convinced you can, by the way, then I've always taken the view that it has to be done between the

Americans and the Russians directly, that the Ukrainians can't themselves be involved, because as we saw, Zelensky will never come to a position where he agrees to anything that makes any kind of sense from a Russian point of view. It depends very much whether the Americans really want to see a settlement of the conflict. I think some do. I think others don't. I think Lindsay Graham and the people that he represents don't really want to see a settlement. that the Russians would regard as sustainable. But anyway, the point is direct... Rubio, Kellogg.

All of those people. All of those people. And Rubio is there. I mean, he's actually in the meeting. So the only way out of this is direct negotiations between the Americans and the Russians. Well, isn't that exactly what Trump is now proposing? He's proposing that he and Putin,

not he, Putin and Zelens. notice, come together and talk it out between them. Now, this is where the Russians need to be very careful, because the Americans are now doing what they always do. By the way, this is to repeat again, very typical American negotiating style. I've encountered this. I've negotiated with American law firms and people of that kind.

They try to bounce you into a meeting quickly and then they talk it up when they say this is, you know, everything's going to be sorted out at this meeting. They put enormous pressure on you to make concessions at this meeting, which you agreed to too early. And as it's typical, the American negotiating start. The Russians, I think, will play it lot. We'll try to play this long. They'll say, look, meeting isn't ready. We're not ready.

We're absolutely up for a meeting between Putin and Trump. We agreed to the fact that there should be a meeting between Putin and Trump at the first conversation between Trump and Putin back in February. So let's have that meeting. We've got to carefully prepare for that meeting. We have to see some progress in the negotiations in Istanbul first. And we've got an awful lot of other things to discuss. And the next step maybe that we should.

take is a bilateral meeting between our people and your people, between Lavarov and Rubio, between our various experts, and we'll see where this goes. But to me, this is starting to look like a drift towards the Americans and the Russians trying to settle this conflict between each other with Zelensky and the Ukrainians, basically being told at the end, what the deal is going to be, which is exactly in the end what happened with the conflict in Vietnam. The North Vietnamese and the Americans

settled it between them. The South Vietnamese were extremely unhappy and tried to sabotage the deal to their disastrous, with a disastrous results for them, by the way. But the Americans and the North Vietnamese came to the agreement with each other. It took a long time to sort out.

and negotiate. But that was what happened. It was agreed between the Americans and the North Vietnamese. It was agreed, if you remember, in Afghanistan between the Americans and the Taliban and the proxy was pushed aside. And that's perhaps the direction of travel again. But to say that this is going to be straightforward

and to say that there aren't enormous traps for each side here and that the Russians in particular don't need to be very careful is an understatement. The key thing about the way that the Russians are organizing their negotiations this time is, as I said, that the military are actively involved. Apparently, the entire group of all the military commanders, who are fighting in, of the forces fighting in Ukraine, participated in the meeting where the remit of the negotiating team was agreed, as I said a senior military official has now been appointed to the Security Council.

And by the way, just to reiterate, another very talented military commander, that General Medvedev has now been appointed to a very key role in the military situation in Moscow, which strongly suggests that he's being put in charge of the ground forces in Moscow in order to supervise the summer offensive, which is probably coming. So, I mean, you know, that's how the position from the Russians looks to me at this moment. But, you know, it's possible. that, you know, Putin will be talked into meeting with Trump and he might make concessions to Trump, which will not be popular in Russia at all. And, you know, who knows? But for the

moment at least, this is the stance that the Russians are taking. Yeah, that's the general that has been killed by Ukraine. About three times, I believe. 30 times, yeah. Yeah, right. He's a badass. He's a badass. And if he is going to be in charge of the ground forces, then it spells trouble for the collective West. No doubt about it. That's an interesting signal from Russia. What capabilities does Trump have to, what can he do to tell the proxy to agree to an agreement that he makes with Putin?

I mean, anything short of removing Zelensky, that's the only way you're going to make this thing work. because Zelensky has already said he's not going to budge. So, I mean, and this takes me to my next question, it seems very unorthodox to have Trump just come in and agree to Istanbul Plus. I mean, this doesn't make any sense. Don't you need to have a whole lot of meetings between both sides in order to prepare for a summit between Trump and Putin?

Is Trump just going to turn up and say, okay, these are your June 2024 terms. I see, okay, five oblasts, Crimea and four oblasts, the entirety of the oblasts are Russian, Ukraine has to leave, no NATO, all of these things. Trump's just going to look at all this stuff and say, okay, I agree to it. Is he going to negotiate these points? He's not in a position to negotiate these points. I mean, has there been some sort of diplomacy going on in the background between the United States and Russia that we don't know about? we all being played? I don't know. I've got all these questions in my head because something feels very off when you have all of these US government officials all of a sudden saying that a meeting

between Trump and Putin is imminent. They could be bluffing. It could be BSing. That's also very possible. Yeah. What are your thoughts? Just to repeat again, bluffing is very much a part of the American negotiating style. So saying that a meeting is around the course. corner, it's going to happen in a couple of days and that kind of thing. I mean, the Americans in the past have said ceasefires were going to be agreed in a couple of days. Well, they said in one day, we'll wipe it out. Exactly. I mean, yes. I mean, one shouldn't be critical of this, by the way. I think people misunderstand this. You know, a lot of people laugh at Trump because he said that he'd get it sorted out in a day and then in a hundred days

and things of that kind. Maybe if he's not part of normal diplomatic negotiating practice, nothing that we've seen, by the way, over the last couple of months, his normal negotiating diplomatic practice. But in commercial negotiations, especially dealing with Americans, it is absolutely standard. As I said, the Americans go along. We've got all of these wonderful plans, all these wonderful ideas, we've got to move forward, we've got to agree. And there's They go around telling everybody the other side's really ready to meet. They're ready to talk. They're ready to agree.

Everything's almost done. I mean, we've seen this pattern right through the whole last three months that, you know, that this is the meeting is going to happen. It's going to happen tomorrow. It's going to happen next week. It's going to happen a few days' time. And, of course, it puts pressure. The intention is, again, always to put pressure on the other side.

to agree to what the Americans are saying. Because, of course, if they don't, then always it looks like they're acting as spoilers. That this wonderful process is on the move. We're closing in on the deal. And it's the other side that's drawing back and not closing in on the deal. So, yes, I suspect there are contacts

between the Russians and the Americans now. I mean, I don't know how extensive they are. But clearly, there is some kind of. kind of channel of contact. I mean, we know that the Russians, for example, sent to the Americans, to Rubio, in fact, details of all the ceasefire violations of the energy truce that the Ukrainians carried out. So, you know, that we know that there is some flow backwards and forwards. There don't seem to be meetings between officials to any great, to any great degree. Lavrov and Rubio have had, I think, is it, two meetings.

Rubio and Lavrov have spoken to each other once or twice that we know about. There may have been more telephone calls that we don't know about, but I don't really get the sense of that. So at the moment, I get the sense that this is all still being conducted to some extent from a distance. but the Americans perhaps are coming round to the view that the only way to get this thing forward is for the US, they deal with the Russians directly. And that's what they're now trying to do. And this is where we come back to a point which I made right at the beginning of this whole process, which is that the Americans are conveying impatience and urgency.

They want to get this thing done and sorted out as quickly as possible. And I think the reason is that Trump wants to get United States as quickly as possible out of the conflict in Ukraine. And this is part of the pressure. I think Trump understands now he's not going to get his ceasefire, the freeze of the conflict on the terms that he expected. He understands that there have to be direct negotiations with the Russians. He is not going to concede.

Going back to your question, Istanbul Plus, straight away. Vance has already said that the Russians are asking too much. But remember, too much is determined. What is too much is determined by the battlefield realities. if we do see a Russian offensive over the next couple of weeks, if the Russians start reaching the NEPA, if they cross the NEPA in a few places, if they capture some of the big cities in Domba, Slovians, Kramatos, those places.

Then, of course, in a few months' time, it may seem that the Russian demands are not quite as excessive as the Western media is claiming that they are. and as people like Vance and Kellogg are saying. So this is a fluid situation and we'll just have to see where it goes. But anyway, the point is the trajectory, it seems to me, is towards negotiations now between the Americans and the Russians. There are, as a set, reasons from a Russian point of view for concern about that.

but probably if you're going to negotiate and enter this conflict at all, that is how it has to be done. Yeah, we started out with negotiations between the United States and Russia. That's how this started out. Exactly. A couple of weeks ago. Yeah. And that looked promising. And then, of course, Zelensky got involved and more importantly, the Europeans got involved.

They all threw collectively a fit. They were complaining about the fact that they were being. excluded from the negotiations. Everything got completely derailed. And we got into this mess about ceasefires and Kellogg plans and all of that, which has basically wasted weeks and months of time. Which Trump ended up endorsing. What, sorry? Which Trump ended up endorsing. Endorsing. And I'm afraid there's no guarantee that we are out of that either. I mean, it could very well be that over the next couple of days, weeks or months, the Europeans will again try to insert themselves into this process until the Americans finally tell the Europeans, look, just keep out of the way.

We're going to deal with the Russians by ourselves. Until the Americans take, this goes back to your point about people indulging, you know, this infant terrible, which is what Zelensky basically is, spoiled child who smashes the furniture whenever and throws a tantrum, whenever things don't go his way. Until people take Zelensky properly to one side and tell him enough, we've had absolutely as much of this as we're prepared to take. We're not prepared to indulge you anymore. Go back to Kiev and stay there and let the adults sort this out between them.

Until that happens. It already happened. What? It already happened. And then they walked it back. This is my point. Exactly. Until they finally, conclusively, definitively do that and do that with Zelensky's European fan club as well,

this whole process always has that potential to simply go completely off the rails, which is what it did. So, I mean, we've got, bear in mind, we've had an incredibly narrow escape, actually, just over the last couple of days, the last week. And it was entirely dexterous diplomacy from Putin that kept this thing on the road. Because on Saturday, we were talking about ultimatums, bone-crushing sanctions, all that kind of thing, which was clearly intended to derail the whole negotiation process,

though, and any moves towards an American Russian rapprochement. And Putin came up with his proposal, you know, for direct negotiations and said he was going to send this negotiating team to Istanbul. And you correctly said at the time that this is Putin offering Trump an off ramp. And Trump seized it. And that's as I said, now why we're back, we've managed to get back to the idea of rec negotiations between the Americans and the Russians. But there is no guarantee, none, none at all, unless and until the Americans finally do that,

until and unless Trump finally stops listening to people like Kellogg, basically, I think he should sat Kellogg. That's my own personal view. Until that happens, there is every possibility that this could go off. could go completely off the rails all over again. So, you know, this is, there's an awful look. I mean, we're at the beginning of a process, and we can't say definitively where it's going to go.

But as of this morning, it does look as if we're gradually moving towards, or perhaps quickly moving towards direct negotiations between the Americans and the Russians to settle this thing. I don't think this is satisfactory, by the way, from an American point of view, or at least from Trump's point of view, because any deal that emerges he will own, and it could probably take him a long, long time to negotiate, and there'll be all kinds of criticisms of him, and, well, we've talked about that already. There are huge risks in this from the Russian side, because they're going to be under pressure to make concessions to the Americans, which they might not want to make.

I think that is, by the way, why the military insisted, because clearly that's what happened. The military in Moscow insisted that this time they must be directly involved. So, I mean, there's no guarantee for either side that this is going to come up, come up with any kind of successful. outcome, but at least the direction of travel as of today is towards direct American-Russian talks. Well, the military may be worried that Putin may make some concessions. Well, that's exactly thought. Given the history of how all of this has played out, there have been many concessions

made by Russia. Absolutely. Many, many concessions made by Russia towards the West. concessions. That is exactly what has happened. Putin announces direct negotiations on Saturday. You have this strange silence in Moscow for several days. I can tell you exactly what I think happened. The moment they heard about negotiations, the military were ringing the Kremlin and they say, what is this all about? Why haven't we been consulted before? We insist on being consulted. And then there's this massive meeting in the Kremlin.

And we know that there was a big discussion taking place there. And we know that the chief of the general staff was present with his officials. And we see these sudden appointments. A senior military official is now, I mean, Selyukov, because he's going to be at the Security Council, he's going to be there in the Kremlin. There's actually going to be a senior military official in the, in the Kremlin from this point. So this is exactly what happened.

The military are now insisting that they must have a say. And I'm not saying that there was exactly a row. But this is why the military were brought in. Everyone that's been following this, they're always concerned about the concessions that Russia may make. Exactly, exactly. Because of the past, yeah, because how everything,

has unfolded, it was many concessions that Russia made over many years, which has brought us to where we are in a way. Well, exactly. So that's why you have several military officials on the negotiating team, while you have the chief of military intelligence who reports directly to Gerasimov, to the chief of the general staff, on the negotiating team. As I said, the military are now insisting on her voice. But again, they may insist on a voice, but Putin remains the president and the decisions will be his.

But you can see the concerns on the Russian side. And there are also big risks here for the Americans too. And I say the Americans, I mean the Trump administration, because if Trump really does want to start moving towards a settlement of the Ukraine conflict, which satisfies Russian security concerns, then, I mean, there's going to be all held to pay in the United States. And, of course, the Europeans are going to go berserk. Look, so far, Putin has played this very well. Yes. Masterfleet.

Yes. I still believe. I listen to your reasons and I understand them. And obviously, Putin is the president of Russia. He'll decide how all of this goes down. It was unacceptable for these delays in Turkey and Istanbul. and I don't know, I think that having people wait around for one day and everything that happened yesterday, the trash talking and all of this stuff, I think it's just too much. I really think it's too much.

Anyway, yeah. I would agree. I would absolutely agree. I mean, I understand why it was done. I mean, you can argue that there was a different course or two to have been followed. But I'm sure that there were all kinds of people calling Kremlin again, saying for God's sake, we're going to get the Ukrainians there. Keep your people in Istanbul. The Americans, the Turks, obviously, probably the Brazilian, well, obviously the Brazilians, not that I think the Russians pay much attention to them.

And for all I know, China, India, who knows who. So, you know, they're all of this, all of these things going on behind the scenes, which we simply don't know about. We don't know who's spoken to whom. I mean, it's not impossible, for example, that Xi Jinping might have called Putin. They don't report their telephone calls. So, you know, all kinds of things probably going on over the last couple of days, which, you know, we are only seeing the tip of the iceberg. and it's not always easy to work out what's going on below the surface because so much of it is heading from us. One day in 20 years' time, we'll get the full details.

But at the moment, we don't have them. And we have to try to do the best that we can to guess our way through. And I think, just to say this, about ourselves, I think, you know, we've tended not just to guess, but to infer things out very well. well on this, John. You know what the problem is with yesterday and Russia agreeing with all the pressure from the U.S., from Turkey, perhaps from China, perhaps from India? Who knows? Perhaps from Lula, agreeing to stay in Istanbul is that they are doing these people a favor. They're saying, okay, we'll stay in Istanbul. The problem is that much of the collective West, including people in the administrations of the countries that are asking them to stay, are going to be.

going to infer this as some sort of weakness on Russia. Well, exactly. This is how they're going to take it. Exactly. And they're going to use it against them. Well, not exactly weakness, but something in some ways more insidious. I mean, you chose to stay. We're really grateful for that.

Now we've got to move this thing forward. Now we've got the talk done. So can't you give us a bit here? Can't you give us a bit there? And again, the Russians put out that statement. They got their chief negotiator, Medinsky. to put out the statement that he made yesterday. And it was a very interesting statement, actually,

because a lot of the media said that he was talking about compromises. And then the Russians immediately said he wasn't talking about compromises. He was talking about solutions. And he was saying that this is a resumption of Istanbul and that he's going to go to look at the root causes of the conflict. So it was as if the Russians were going to, out of their way to make clear that their position remains the same as always. Now, presumably, they did that precisely because they're worried that they're going to be put under all that

kind of pressure. But that doesn't mean, again, to stress again, you could say things. And then when you're in the room, when the pressure comes, when the phone calls start coming in from China, I mean, I don't know what role the Chinese are playing in this. So, you know, let's not make too many judgments. When the calls start coming in, when the Americans start putting pressure on you. And by the way, I know what it's like to be under pressure from Americans. I mean, I've experienced this. I mean, you get calls at every hour of the day. You get all the pressure, you get all, and you see leaks in the media, all of that. So when that happens, I mean, It's going to require an awful lot of moral strength, if I can put it like that, to resist

all of this. And whether they will do that given that they've already made the concession of staying in Istanbul at all, despite all of that rhetoric. Made the concession. Yeah, it was a concession. They already made the concession. That's the key word. Putin said that they'd be there on the 15th. Yeah. On the 15th. He didn't say they'd be there on the 16th. Jamie, it's an important point to say. I understand why it happened. I think in itself, it was the correct decision. It didn't concede anything of substance.

But, you know, you're right. I mean, the other side are going to look at this. They're not probably, as I said, they weren't seen as a weakening. But they'll say, you know, the Russians clearly want to talk. so let's see whether we can get them to start moving a bit more in our direction. The Russians at the moment, by the way, if they want to take a hard line, have a great ally, who is Zelenskyy, who at the moment is demanding impossible things. If the Ukrainians really are only interested in talking about 30-day ceasefires,

then, as I said, that helps the Russians maintain their position and perhaps facilitates the point when we start getting direct discussions between the Russians and the US. Bear in mind, that's what happened, as I said in Paris with the North Vietnamese. That's what happened in Doha with the Taliban. Eventually, it became a bilateral negotiation between them and the Americans. Okay, so let's wrap up the video on that point. When all of this is over, the Istanbul talks, we're going to get more pressure falling on Trump in his administration from Ukraine, from the Europeans, to approve sanctions on Russia.

That's going to come towards Trump. Trump is now saying, I want to meet with Putin. Yes. President to president. The way out for the Trump administration for Project Ukraine, if he wants a way out, of this. If he genuinely wants a way out of this, there is only one way he could thread the needle, in my opinion. Only one way. He needs to phrase this as not about just Project Ukraine. Absolutely. I want to meet with Putin so that we can try to solve Project Ukraine, but also we need to

normalize relations and we need to talk about A, B, C, and D. And he needs to spell out what they need to talk about. We need to talk about nuclear proliferation. We need to talk about terrorism. We need to talk about whatever. I mean, spell it out. Yeah. And also, if, if we can solve Ukraine, we will. Yeah.

If we can't, no problem. It's, for me, it's Biden's war. What can I do? That's the message that he needs to get out there. That's the way he threads this needle. Will he do it? So far, he is putting out the message. I'm going to solve project Ukraine if I meet with Putin.

I think that's the wrong message. He needs to make. Project Ukraine, a part of a much bigger picture. I think if he says that, he will also speed up Russia's interest in having a meeting because Russia has also said that they want to talk with the United States, not just about Ukraine, but about a bigger, wider security architecture in Europe. Absolutely. I am in absolute complete agreement with that. I mean, that has to be the way forward. A summit meeting between Putin and Trump just about Ukraine is a potential disaster. It's a disaster. A summit meeting between Putin and Trump, which is all about the full range

of the relationship between the two countries, including arms control, economic issues, energy, stability in Europe, the Middle East, Iran, relations with China, relations with North Korea, all of that. That is, that is a really, you know, that is the kind of meeting. A lot to talk about. Exactly. That is the kind of meeting we need to have. The sort of meeting we haven't had, by the way, since the Cold War. I mean, it was the kind of meeting that, you know, Nixon and Brezhnev used to have with each other. And they, they actually helped to de-escalate tensions and improve the international atmosphere. But no, that kind of meeting, Absolutely. The trouble Trump faces, by the way, it isn't the Europeans, principally. The Europeans are there,

and they're always a nuisance, and they're also trouble. The Ukrainians, obviously, as we said, out of control, but ultimately Ukraine is so dependent on the US that there's a limit to what they can do. The problem Trump faces always is in Washington. with people within his administration who are near cons, to say it straightforwardly, and that massive group of people in the political system who don't want any kind of rapprochement with Russia. Lindsay Graham, I mention Lindsay Graham because he's now the focus of all of this. He appears to have become or appointed himself, their point man. He's everywhere now.

He's talking all the time. up in Turkey? What was he doing in Turkey? Well, I can tell you exactly what he's doing in Turkey. He is putting pressure. Yeah. He's putting pressure on Rubio and ultimately on Trump to get them to take the hardest line possible. And he claims, he may not be telling the truth here, by the way, but he claims there are 72 senators behind him, which is enough if he really has them to actually. get an impeachment through. Just saying. So this is what this is this is this is the challenge that Trump always faces. I agree. Trump has half of the US population, if not more, behind him. Of course, exactly. That's his strength. And can I say something else about Trump? I mean,

not only does Trump have half the population behind him. On Ukraine, he probably has more than half, significantly more than half. I mean, are they really going to impeach him because he's going to have a meeting with Putin and move the dial forward towards a de-escalation of tensions between America and Russia, which averts World War III? I mean, that's a crazy idea. So I hope that Trump pays no attention to this.

And there's something else I have to say about Trump, and I said this on several of my programs. This is a president who not only undoubtedly has extraordinary political skills, but who is able to do things politically, that no other president can do. He got into this situation where he had this economic war with China, with 145 percent tariffs. and then he gets a meeting organized with China in Switzerland. He brings the tariffs all the way down. And there seems to be no political cost to him. I mean, what other president could have done that?

I can't imagine one. I mean, imagine if, say, Obama or Clinton had been maneuvered into a situation like that. It would have been the end of their presidency. Yet Trump is able, he has such a strong base of support in the United States. He is such a skillful politician. He has such ability to convey he's a message to the American people. He may be doing it in a very unorthodox and unconventional way, but he's able to advance and retreat and maneuver in a way that no other American

president can do. So absolutely, he can meet with Putin. He can have his discussions with Putin. He can agree arms control and all of these other issues with Putin. And I suspect that more than any other president, he'd come out at this unscath. And if he does deal with Putin over Ukraine, again, the American people will breathe a sigh of relief and will say, thank God, the president, is doing something sensible and wise over Ukraine. No one else has done. And if you can't find the deal on Ukraine, just to wrap it the video, he can then walk away. Exactly. And still keep the relations with pressure.

Still a lot of them, indeed, and still the American people would be happy to support that. This president is unusual in the degree of political strength and in the solidity of his position in the United States. And his opponents, his Democratic Party opponents, are nowhere. they're continuing to lose support. All right. We'll end the video there. The durand.com.

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