The Duran Podcast - Kaliningrad Blockade Plan Returns; Baltics Ignore Russia’s Warning

Episode Date: October 16, 2026

Kaliningrad Blockade Plan Returns; Baltics Ignore Russia’s Warning

All right, Alexander, let's talk about Kaliningrad. We have more statements from the powerful Baltic states, which are claiming that they are going to now cut off the gas pipeline that feeds into Kaliningrad. We also have some talk about more seizing of ships in the Baltic and cutting off. a plan that they're putting together in order to completely seal off the Baltic from Russia. What do you make of all of this? Well, just a few, about a week ago, the Russian Foreign Ministry issued a statement that

Russia will defend Kaleed and Gras with all possible means. And the various embassies, the Russian embassies around Europe then published statements of their own. explicitly saying that all possible means included use of nuclear weapons. And the Russian foreign ministry then sent letters to European governments. And then Putin also personally confirmed that the warning had been given. And Lov confirmed that the warning had been given. And then in the immediate aftermath of all those warnings,

the Europeans, the NATO came forward and said that they have no objectives, no plans to take any kind of action. against Kaliningrad at all. And we discussed it all in a program that we did then. And we said that, yes, this warning would have a effect, but it would take about a week or two weeks after they'd be back. And they'd be back to planning again the blockade of Kaliningrad. And sure enough, we now see the first signs of it.

So the Lithuanians who were amongst the first, by the way. You remember there was that meeting with, There was that press conference with Mark Rutter and the Lithuanian Prime Minister was sitting next to him or standing next to him. And they were both denying any plans against Kaliningrad or anything of that kind. And now just a few know about a week later, we see that they're now talking about cutting off a reserve pipeline to Kaliningrad. And Nikolai Patrushchev, who used to be Putin's national security advisor and who is now the man who's in overall charge. of both the Russian merchant fleet, merchant navy, and also its shipbuilding program, including the shipbuilding program for the Russian Navy, which he mostly supervises.

He's come forward and said that there is indeed a NATO plan to blockade Kaliningrad, and that this is becoming very dangerous, and that the Russians are preparing. countermeasures. So it looks to be as if that nuclear warning from the Russians has already been put away in a draw. The hardliners in the West, in Europe, exactly as we predicted, are back in charge. Perhaps they are not planning a military campaign against Kaliningrad. And I was a ground invasion of Kaliningrad. But it's certain to me that they're preparing some kind of action. Kent Kaliningrad, or at least the hard line is amongst them. Some sort of a cutoff of something.

Something of a cutoff, it's cargo via ship, whether it's cutting off the Baltic, cutting off of energy. How ridiculous would that be if embarrassing, would that be if they go ahead and cut off this pipeline of energy to Kaliningrad while Russia is selling 320 billion in energy to to Europe, which is something that Novak, Novak has actually put the number from 2020 up till today at 320 billion in energy purchases from Europe. Yes. Well, I think the first thing to say is that this pipeline is a reserve pipeline.

So it is not in itself going to make an immediate difference to the situation in Kaliningrad. It's more a step towards that blockade, which one is, I'm sure, is eventually being planned. What I also think is that the hardliners in the Baltic states, and by the way I've heard now some comments, you know, I'm attending this conference here, and I've heard over the course of this conference some information about just how hardline and obsessive and out of control the Baltic states have become. Anyway, they clearly are trying to engineer a military clash. I mean, that's exactly how it looks to me, between NATO and Russia. And undoubtedly, they have the support of some people, probably the British, no doubt others, probably Macron as well, in order to try to do this. I don't think they're ready yet.

But I do think that if we ever do get towards an actual blockade, I think this is one area where the Russians absolutely cannot afford to retreat. They will take action because they have to defend Kaliningrad, because Kaliningrad is part of their country. And Putin is constitutionally obliged to take action. and so is the Russian military. So if we get to a situation where there's a military blockade of Kaliningrad, I think quite, I mean, it is a certainty that the Russian military will be activated

and will start to take action against the Baltic states. And I think people do need to understand that, even though I don't believe they do. What are the Baltic states trying to do? I mean, they're trying to engineer. I understand they're trying to engineer a conflict between. NATO and Russia. Yeah. In the belief that, what, that NATO is going to defeat Russia, and then they'll be able to dismember Russia, to balkanize Russia, like Callis said a couple of years ago? I mean, is that their thinking? The ultimate goal for the Baltic nations and the British who are behind

the Baltic nations. And then you have guys like Sikorsky and the neocons who are also behind these types of plans and initiatives. The ultimate goal is to get NATO into, a conflict with Russia, believing that NATO is going to destroy Russia very quickly. And that's what NATO generals are actually saying, like guys like Grinkovich and these guys are actually saying that if there was some sort of a conflict, NATO has a plan that will defeat Russia pretty much within a week's time. And we don't even need the U.S. That's how easy it'll be. We don't even need the U.S. to do this. I mean, is this the thinking, is the Kool-Aid that they're drinking? Yes, that's exactly what they're thinking. I think that in the Baltic state,

there are political leaders who absolutely think this. And they also see that the situation in Ukraine is going bad. I think they are furious over the diesel oil deal because even if it doesn't really undermine sanctions, it appears to. And the Baltic states incessantly demand more and more sanctions and consistently oppose any attempts to relax sanctions. So yes, I do believe that this is what they're thinking and this is what they want to achieve. And I think they're now taking the first step.

We bet they've taken several steps, but this is one particular step they've taken to try to move forward to that objective. Now, they are obviously catastrophically, disastrously wrong and also incredibly dangerously wrong. But this is the problem. The West NATO, the United States, has never publicly called them into line. It has never told them, can you please stop talking in this way? This is absolutely unacceptable and inappropriate behavior. You cannot talk to a nuclear super power in that fashion. you absolutely must not even dream of trying to involve us in another world war against the world's biggest nuclear power.

And in the absence of anybody talking to them in that fashion and basically showing them the door, they always come back and they try to agitate and arrange for this confrontation, which I have no doubt that they own. I think they are sublimely sure that in a military confrontation with the West, the West would win. Just as, well, you know, Mons were sublimely sure or appeared to be sublimely sure that when the United States attacked Iran, Iran would crumble and it would be over in three days. I mean, you know, I'm afraid that is the kind of delusional thinking that has taken hold. know. Well, my final question is, why is it the responsibility of the United States to do this? I mean,

the United States benefits in a way, in a weird way, they do benefit from a conflict in Europe and Russia. Once again, they're far away. They can just sit back and watch, provide the weapons and support. And okay, if Russia loses and is smashed for the United States, that's super. If Europe loses, it doesn't really, maybe it even benefits the United States in a world. weird way, reconstruction, more control of Europe. Who knows? I don't know. As long as it doesn't go nuclear, right?

Absolutely. As long as it doesn't go nuclear for the United States. Yeah, they can kind of sit back and also look on. They have troops in Europe. They have many troops in Europe. I don't know how they would deal with something like that. Hey, you're perfectly right. And somebody should point that out to the Europeans.

Yeah. I mean, that they are assuming that in a, conflict with the Russians, the Americans would be there for them. Just as the Persian Gulf states also assumed that the Americans would be there for them. I mean, the scenarios that you have outlined, I am not saying that they would happen. But I personally, the Americans leave the Europeans hanging out to dry. I would not be surprised. I mean, you know, that the United States would risk its entire existence.

in order to help Estonia. I mean, I find that, well, absolutely. Charles de Gaulle, by the way, who was a wise man, was already warning about this back in the 1960s. He had a meeting with JFK, in which he said to JFK, am I seriously to believe that you would risk New York for Paris? No. No, not at all. So would the US risk New York for Tallinn?

No chance in a million years. Well, exactly. But the point is, this has never been spelled out to the Baltic states. I mean, people like Grinkevich, for example, far from telling the Baltic states to calm down and say, stop talking like this and stop behaving like this, come along and make statements. If there's a war with the Russians, we can win tomorrow. We can win very, very quickly. It's as if he's almost encouraging them. Well, maybe he is. Well, possibly he is. But I mean, if so, then I mean, it's unbelievably reckless. But we've had any number of instances, I'm sorry to say this, when American

generals have given dangerously over-optimistic prospectuses of what would happen in military conflicts. And frankly, this would be one. But this would be by far the most dangerous one up to now. What would Russia be able to do in order to de-escalate? Well, I think that what the Russians would do in order to get the message, maybe the escalates the wrong, we're sorry, in order to get the message out that this is stupid. what you guys are doing and you're not going to defeat us. You're not going to

balkanize us. If you dare to close off Kaliningrad, well, then this is, this is what's going to happen. I mean, what can the Russians do? Well, they can conduct nuclear drills. They can conduct navy drills. They can deploy more forces. They've got ample forces to do that, by the way. I mean, this story, this narrative that the Russian army is to bog down in Ukraine, to put up forces in other places, which you read in the media, is simply wrong. There are plenty of other military units in Russia that could be deployed closer to the Baltic states. But in a kind of a way, that might deter and that might trigger de-escalation. But of course, the Baltic states and their and the other hardliners and the neocons would reinterpret these moves as threatening.

Just as they did in the spring of 2021, when Ukraine deployed large numbers of troops to Donbass gave every indication that it was preparing to attack Donbass. The Russians moved 100,000 troops in the direction of Donbass nowhere near enough to invade Ukraine at that time. And already people were saying that an invasion of Ukraine was coming. So you could see how, if you want to build and create narratives and stoke up fears of the Russian threat, a Russian buildup to counter a potential threat in the Baltic could be spun and very easily spun as threatening. So there's really nothing that Russia can do? Well, I think they can only do so much if you're dealing with people who are determined to engineer a war.

I mean, that was what we saw in 2022. And it's potentially what could happen now. The only thing I would say is, and I think there are people in Washington who do understand this actually, even some pretty hardline people, that this. time it would be far more high risk. You'll be dealing dealing with what is indisputably Russian territory. And I mean, nobody legally denies that Kaliningrad is part of Russia. And I think there would be people in the Pentagon elsewhere who would say this can't be allowed to get out of control. And we must bring this under control because if we don't, then this situation,

has every potential to escalate out of control. And we mustn't assume that we would have to deal with an SMO like the one in Ukraine. This would be an all-out conflict and potentially a superpower war. All right. We will end it there. We are on substack. We are on locals at durandotot.com and go to Durant. I pick up some merch.

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