The Duran Podcast - Krynky failure leaves no path to victory

Episode Date: January 20, 2024

Krynky failure leaves no path to victory

All right, Alexander, let's talk about what is happening in Ukraine. And let's start things off with the bridgehead, the bridgehead in Herzan, in Krenki, which was going to be the launch pad for Zelensky's Crimea 2.0 offensive. What is going on with that bridgehead? Well, it appears to be disintegrated. Now, there were reports about two days ago that the Russian troops have actually raised their flag in the centre of Khrinki, and there were also reports that a group of Ukrainian soldiers, 135, who had been tasked with being sent to Krienki as part of a troop rotation, that they refused to go there and that they've all been arrested.

Now, we've not seen pictures of this flag, and of course these reports about these soldiers, these Ukrainian soldiers who refuse to go to Kringy. We're not going to get confirmation from any official source about that either. But as I understand it, and this is now information that's coming from a large assortment of sources, all on the Russian side, we need to accept that, but they're the sort of people who do provide accurate information is that the bridgehead is all but collapsing, that the Ukrainian soldiers there are barely able to put up any resistance, that the Russians can enter any part of the bridgehead that they want, probably plant flags. They don't stay there for very long because there are still

Ukrainian troops on the other side of the river who are able to bomb and show them. But essentially, it's now a tidying up exercise within the next couple of days or weeks, probably weak, the whole thing will be cleared and this whole operation in Krenki, this whole bridgehead, this whole Normandy landing and advance on Crimea across the NEPA will be finally at an end. The bridgehead has become untenable. The soldiers there apparently who are left are few in number, many of them apparently very ill, The conditions in the bridgehead are absolutely hellish. The temperatures are appalling.

I mean, we're talking about something like minus 20 on some nights. And practically no cover. The whole bridgehead is now a lunar landscape. We've seen, I'm sure you've seen the photos of it. I mean, it's utterly smashed up and devastated. And the ice on the river, far from making it easier. supply troops. The troops in Klinke, as some people were saying a few weeks ago, I discussed this at length on my channel. Far from making it easier, the ice on the river has made it more complicated.

So they are barely able to keep the troops going there and as I said, the bridgehead is on the brink of collapse. What a stupid idea this all was. It was a very stupid idea. Also as Zelensky can promote his Crimea two- 0.0. That's what this was all about. Where does this leave? Okay, so where does this leave Zelensky? What else is going on on the front lines? And where does this leave Zelensky as far as selling points to the collective West for for more money and weapons to Ukraine because they have these grand plans? Well, there's two things to say. Let's actually just go to the front lines. Now, you know, the last time I think we did a program, we both said there is a Christmas lull on the way.

This is the Christmas week. Things were reasonably quiet. Apparently the weather conditions were pretty bad. But the Russians gave themselves a rest. Then the week that we've just gone through, things started to work up again. And the Russians are putting pressure absolutely everywhere. Now, again, I want to make this very clear. I don't think we're talking here about a general offensive. We're not talking about vast forces moving across the battlefronts. It's just relentless pressure on every part of the front lines.

And everywhere, you see the Ukrainians now Buckley. So yesterday, the Russian Defence Ministry confirmed that a village called Veserloje, which is north of Bahmert, and on the way, to an important fortified town called Sivask, which is very much a linchpin of the Ukrainian defense. The Russian Defense Ministry confirmed that this particular village, which is on high ground and dominates the area around it, has now been captured by the Russians.

There are lots of talk about fights with this village, reports about attacks on it by the Russians. In fact, and in reality, it seems they actually took physical possession of it several days ago. So you see, this is a good example of how reports on the battlefronts are not always necessarily reliable because people were talking about fights for this particular village after the actual battle for the village had ended and the Russians had gained control. But that's only in one place.

So now we see Russian helicopters flying over the northern front. lines around Kupians. The Russians are said to be advancing there. They're advancing towards this place called Siversk and its position is becoming precarious. They're advancing further in the Bahmert direction and there's been lots of reports, including from the Russian Defence Ministry about their advances there. In Avdavka, they're heavily bombing of Degke itself, again with Russian aircraft, Russian fighter bombers. And they're making further advances around that famous Coke plant that everybody has been talking about. But apparently they're gradually clearing all the areas around the metropolitan area. And they've already occupied some of the houses of

Uvdaevka itself. And they're gradually tightening up their control of the supply lines. So the situation in Uddefka is becoming increasingly precarious. And lastly, we've now had this news from Krenki. So on every part of the front line, the Russians are pushing forward. And the reasons for this are not difficult to understand. The Ukrainian army is exhausted. The men have not been replaced. The losses, especially during the summer offensive, were huge and have not been replaced.

And Ukraine's army is short of ammunition, whereas the Russians have an abundance of it. So the Russians can push forward with limited forces and make gains and improve their positions on every part of the front line. And that is exactly what they're doing. And they're keeping up the pressure. They're giving the Ukrainians no rest. And Ukrainian sources are complaining about this. And they're burning up Ukrainian reserves.

and of course they're weakening Ukraine all the time. So where does this leave Zelensky? You're absolutely right. A couple of days ago, weeks ago, we discussed it on one of our programs. He was spinning the story that if we're going to rebuild, we're going to mobilize all of these forces, or we need to some more weapons and more equipment. And we are going to then advance on Crimea. we're going to use the crinky bridgehead as the launch pad for a further advance on Crimea.

And they'd set up all of these task forces on the Ukrainian control west bank of the Dnieper. And they gave them these pompous names, Normandy, Omaha, you know, all suggesting there's going to be a D-Day operation. The great Hollywood epic, the next Hollywood epic. You remember at the time of the summer offensive, before you started, you said this was going to, this sounded like a Hollywood epic. And the same was, you know, the way they were thinking about selling this sequence on Crimea, you know, you know, summer offensive too. The new advance on Crimea, the advance across the river. and over the course of January, before we got this news from Pinky, we had a cluster of articles appearing in the American media.

I don't mean, you know, the usual media that most people read. I mean the sort of publications that the military, industrial and foreign policy complex, those people read foreign policy, foreign affairs, the Wall Street Journal, it must be said. Anyway, they're all coming along saying, you know, There's a pathway to victory. We can still win. Ukraine can still win. All we need to do is give the Ukrainians more weapons and more ammunition and more equipment and more money. They could still defeat the Russians, all of this. And there's a whole cluster of articles. They all came out over the space of a single week. And then, of course, the use that the crinky bridgehead is collapsing. So now we have a swerve towards a new narrative. We must help Ukraine. We must provide Ukraine with all the weapons, all the equipment that it needs, because if we don't fight off the Russians in Ukraine, if we don't fight them there, we will have to fight them here. This is the new narrative, the domino theory. If the Russians take Ukraine, they will move on to the Baltic states.

They will wrap up the Baltic states. We've had articles now in the Daily Telegraph about how we'll be at war with Russia within 20 years. Others are saying within three years, you know, the looming danger from Russia is growing. There's a long article about this in Bloomberg, about how the Russians are going to come up. It's going to become a militarized revisionist state with this vast army and all these people trained in war, and this is a real danger to the West. So, you know, before, until about A week ago, 10 days ago, before the Klinke collapsed, it was all about give Zelensky what he needs because he can still win. Now it's give Zelensky what he needs because if he loses, then Putin is going to come after us. So this is the new narrative. This is the new narrative switch.

Yeah. Yeah. And they started to float out this narrative last week. when they understood that the cranky thing was finished. You know, a couple of things. You said that Russia's applying pressure with limited, limited forces. I think that's important for everyone to understand. Limited, limited forces. Once again, you go back to Putin's quote, which is, you know, we haven't even started yet. Always remember that quote from Putin.

We haven't even started yet. But my question to you is, okay, so the bridgehead's gone. Cremaya 2.0, the sequel is counteroffensive. The sequel is gone. The new movie that is being pushed out is, you know, we have to fight them there over there. So they don't, so we don't have to fight them here. I believe Bush floated that one out, something like 15 years ago. So they're rehashing that whole narrative, the domino theory, the whole narrative of, if we have to, you know, arm Ukraine so they can fight, fight them in Ukraine.

and otherwise they're going to come here and get us. But, you know, it doesn't answer the question, which I think is the most important question. Now that Krimki, the path to victory, they were telling us was this bridgehead. That was the new path to victory. So my question is, what is the path to victory then? What is the $61 billion that they're trying to get to Ukraine

and the $50 billion from the EU and the $300 billion in Russian frozen assets? How is this money going to leave? lead to a path to victory? What is the strategic tactical, the path to victory now that Krimki's done? Well, there is no path to victory. And I think increasingly people do understand this, deep down. I mean, you do every so often get suggestions about, you know, well, Ukraine should hunker down, go on the defensive, build great elaborate fortified lines. There's an article, by the way, in TAS from a Russian military officer describing the kind of fortified lines of the

Russians bill, the sheer scale of them. And the moment you read that, you know that there is no conceivable way that Ukraine can now reproduce anything like this, not in the conditions in which Ukraine finds itself. But, you know, go on the defensive and give Ukraine long-range missiles and the long-range missiles can strike deep into Russia, and that will force Putin to capitulate or cause the Russian people to rise up or something like that. The German parliament has had cold feet about this, and they voted against sending Ukraine long-range missiles,

which has come, I think, is something of a shock, and there's a surprise to people, but it reflects what I think is a change of mood in Germany. That's a story for another day. So there is that idea floating around. I don't think anybody really believes that the point, and this is a thing, people do need to understand. The purpose of seizing Russian assets, getting more money out of taxpayers, sending more, pumping more money into Ukraine now, is not about achieving victory.

any longer. It is about distributing that money. This is what it's all about now. It's all about getting your hands on the money. There are lots and lots of people now who have to be paid off. You know, $360 billion may sound a lot to, you know, most of us. But if you stack it all up, if you build up the numbers, it is not that many. So it's not that much. So that's what it's about now. It's about getting the money, getting the contracts. It's universally accepted.

This isn't even now controversial that even if Ukraine is given all this money, in fact, it's going to stay in the West, most of it. It's going to stay in the West. It's going to be given to contractors. it's going to be given to all kinds of people. And of course, lots and lots and lots of it is going to end up in the various accounts and safe deposits and offshore funds and all of that kind of thing. So this is what it's about now.

It's more about that than about anything else. And of course, there is an ideological perspective to this. I mean, the British government, which has run out of weapons descent to Ukraine, is run out of weapons, period. I mean, British military position is now all but collapsed for its own ideological and political reasons. I mean, all that it is now doing, its primary objective now is to try to stop negotiations taking place to try and find a diplomatic solution to this war. So David Cameron goes to Davos, he's our new foreign secretary, and he says, you know, negotiations.

with Russia is like doing what Neville Chamberlain did in 1938, its appeasement of the dictator all over again. So there is also an ideological component to all of this, but principally, primarily now, it's about money. Yeah. And by the way, Alexander, I have to correct you. It's Lord, Cameron. How could I possibly forget that? You're so right. So, yeah, I completely agree with you. I would also add in there that for people like Sullivan, there's an election component to getting this money to Ukraine. We've been talking about that in many videos. So they're definitely focused on 2024.

And it's not only the Democrats. I think the whole Uniparty, you know, Schumer, McConnell, the Trump victory in Iowa, freak them out. And so I imagine that all of them now are saying, you know, we can't have an Afghanistan times 10 collapse happening in 2024, which will give the orange man a lot of ammo as he goes up against Biden. So I think they're definitely worried about that as well. But, you know, I always thought to myself when, you know, when I was in Moscow, I was thinking as I was going through like shopping malls, how many businesses, you know, the Zadas and all these, I'm just throwing a name out there, that were forced to leave. Russia or perhaps were promised by the Biden White House or the Europeans that this is just going to be a temporary thing, close up shop for three months. Don't worry about the loss that you're going to take. When you come back, you're going to make 10 times the money. We'll make sure of it.

I wonder how many business owners, big multinational companies are now complaining to Biden and Ursula and saying, you know, you really screwed us on our business operations in Russia. We were there 30 years. We built up a name, a brand. We invested in the country. You promised us in three months. We'd be back. Putin gone.

We'd make 20 times more the profit. We need to get paid. I mean, I just wonder if there's that type of dynamic going on as well. There is undoubtedly that kind of dynamic going on, and it is increasing and it is intensified. It was the place where it is strongest. The two countries where it's probably strongest, the Germany and Italy, by the way. because Germany, lots of German businesses invested heavily in Russia. Lots of Italian brands are open business in Russia.

The Russians had always a strong attraction to Italian brands, as everybody does, but the Russians perhaps especially so. But of course, the point you understand, two points to say about this. Of course, these people, the companies that you are talking about, they actually engage in the real economy. They provide services and they provide goods, whereas the people who want money are people who basically just deal in money.

And it is to the second group that the political class is becoming increasingly more beholden to. So, you know, in a sense, you're talking about people from the old, real economy as opposed to the new economy, which is very different and very distorted, and which we've talked about with people like Michael Hudson, for example. You can see the interview we did with him on the Duran, you know, a couple of weeks ago. So there is already that difference.

Now, of course, these big multinational companies, IKEA, you know, LVMH in France, they're becoming worried and concerned. They're seeing their niches being taken absorbed by Russian businesses, which are taking over from them. Their business in Russia, by the way, was highly profitable. I mean, I happen to know if this, this was a very, very good market. I mean, it really was. It was well-organized market.

one heard golden things about the quality of the workforces in Russia and about, you know, how, you know, payment systems work well. Everything about it was a very efficient market, relatively low taxes. They are becoming concerned. And it's possible that in time that will start to carry more weight in some of these, especially in Europe. I mean, American and British brands were hardly visible in Russia to any great extent. I mean, the Russians did buy Rolls Royces, obviously the rich ones and Bentley's, but this isn't going to, and they're German owned anyway. But, you know, over time, one can see how those people might become increasingly embittered and angry and all of that. But I'm going to suggest that the point when the pressure from those kind of people is going to become really important and really serious so that Western governments have to notice them is going to be when the war is over, when Russia has won, when it's clear that the Russian economy is not going to collapse.

And they'll be able to turn around and say, well, what was all that about? We, you know, we aren't, nothing that you said has worked out. We need to lift the sanctions. We need to resume the trade with the Russians because, frankly, we're losing business. And it's affecting us and it's affecting our workers and it's affecting our ability to pay your taxes. But I think the critical point for those people, as I said, is still some way off. Western governments are still able to apply the pressure. They're still able to say the war is ongoing. They're still able to talk about putting more pressure on taxes, sorry, on companies not to, you know, go along with the aggressor and, you know, talk in rhetoric, which you might almost feel suggests we are at war.

The kind of businesses that you're talking about are going to have trouble winning against rhetoric like that. But in time, I agree, they will become important. So give it a year, give it two years when the war is over and the Russians have unequivocally won. And then at that point, they might start to have a serious effect. Yeah. So, you know, if Russia wants to deal with those companies in the future, that's a whole different story. Lavrov during his 2003

wrap up press conference that he gave the other day. He said that there is no trust. I mean,

you listen to Lavrov and it does sound like there is no returning back to the business as usual

with the collective West and specifically with Europe. Yeah, he did have a lot of business ties.

Absolutely. That's exactly what he is. It's a very interesting press conference last in three hours, by the way.

And he was in a thought a sort of mellow, quite confident, relaxed mood, but, you know, he answered all these questions. He actually said that. He said there's no trust between Russia and the West. And the other thing he did, by the way, is that he also debunked any story that there are ongoing negotiations or contacts going on. Because, you know, we every so often we get all these reports, you know, that Richard Hass and his crowd are going to Moscow, Zollusionian, Gerasimov,

the two generals are talking to each other. Lavrov said, you know, nothing like that is going on. You know, there's another rumor apparently floating around that the Ukrainians and the Russians are going to start talks in Geneva. He said, you know, these are just rumors. Don't take them seriously. reality to any of this. At the moment, there are no significant diplomatic contacts at all. As far as we are concerned, we're carrying on, we're going to fulfill the objectives of our special military operation, and that's all we have to say. All right. Anything else? Well, a very self-confident meeting by Putin with members of his government the other day.

They now definitely think that the growth rate in Russia in 2023 was close to 4%. I mean, if you sort of drill through, that's what they said. They see the economy surging. There's an article today in Bloomberg telling us that, you know, Russia's about to collapse. The oil revenues afford them. Putin can't, won't be able to afford to keep the economy running. How many articles like that have? we've seen now. I mean, but there's also, it must be said, a countervailing article from Newsweek

saying straightforwardly the Russians have won the sanctions war. So, you know, you get this sort of bifurcation things, but Bloomberg in his society, there's still people who cling on to the idea, or at least who want us to think that. That's more to the point. I mean, they still want to, they still want us to maintain the sanctions and do all of these things because just wait a little, you know, a few weeks of lower oil prices is going to bring the entire Russian House of Cards tumbling down. It's not happening. It's not going to happen. And we've debunk those stories so many times, but every so often we still get pieces like this.

And I think the faster people in the West internalize the fact that the sanctions war, the economic war, has ended in defeat, the better it will be. And the companies, of course, that you were talking about just before. Of course, they understand that very well. Yeah, well, Orban and Fizzo are saying that this thing is over. Absolutely. You know, we're trying their best to wake everybody up and realize that the second. his war has been lost. But, you know, just to wrap things up, Zelensky was in Davos and he made a mess of things with China specifically, but what a disaster trip from Zelensky and Lavrov, during the

press conference even said it, that the collective West, they understand that Zelensky's a mess. Well, absolutely. They even understand this guy's a mess. So I don't see how they can change anything around with this guy as president. No, and I'm going to say something else. I thought the performance of Ukraine's foreign minister, Kulaba, was increasingly bizarre as well. I mean, he was, you know, basically reading from one thing to the next. I mean, it was becoming increasingly incoherent. But with Zelensky, I mean, he asks for a meeting with the Prime Minister of China. The Prime Minister of China says, look, I'm not interested in not meeting you.

This isn't something that, you know, I think is important. So Zelensky, that goes off and insults him. He says, you know, you're far beneath my pay grade. I don't meet with someone like you at all, even though it was he who asked for the meeting. This is disastrous. I mean, it's appalling diplomacy. I mean, I would have thought by now that the penny would have dropped

with Western governments, that this man is impossible. That is high time. He was shuffled off the scene. But I'm going to also say this. I think that for the moment at least, some countries that had been backing him before are continuing to back him.

The British in particular, you won't find anywhere in the British media, any reference, for example, to this episode with China. And I think that they want to continue to back him. because they want to continue the war. I mean, that's the thing to understand. Yeah, just a couple more things that will wrap up the video.

Ad Zelensky, I agree with you. You know, it's moments like that where you see Zelensky lash out at the Chinese premiere where you understand that this guy's a spoiled actor. That's that spoiled actor coming out. You see it there at full display. And as far as the British are concerned, but my question to you is they want this war to continue. They've gone hard against Russia, really hard against Russia. The British and the French, right?

And the Germans, okay. All these European countries have gone hard against Russia. But in the case of the British, you know, I'm reading articles about steel plants closing, steel factories closing, no more steel production in the UK. Russia is apparently about to close the fishing lanes in the barren sea, which is going to, I think it's going to cause trouble. Unfortunately, it's going to be the working class that's going to pay the price. Yeah. But, you know, they want to go hard against Russia.

I just don't see. What are the cards that they can play, except for the fact that the U.S. is behind us. I mean, everything else seems like every time they're going after the Russians, they're just doing themselves harm. Because the whole steel thing is, to me, it sounds like this is about higher energy costs. It is. That's why these plants are not profitable. So why are these costs so high? Are they ever going to tell the British public the truth?

No. I mean, the rhetoric from Britain is the most implacable and the most intransigent of all. I mean, the British continue to pump out this line that we must go on supporting Ukraine. We must engineer Putin's defeat. It's become obligatory for everybody within mainstream media and within the major parties, the Labour and Conservative Party, to do this. You're absolutely correct. Britain is in a deep economic malaise, as you said, steel plants are closing,

fishing lanes. Closing now, you know, Britain used to be a major, you know, had major fishing fleet. It's now down, I believe, to 12 fishing vessels. That kind of contraction. The fishing ports, which as you could correctly say, a working class communities that used to solidly vote Labor, by the way, once upon a time. They overwhelmingly voted Brexit, which is a strong indication of their dissatisfaction and anger. But all of that is disregarded.

We still have to continue. And of course, we're not going to own up with the British public about what the cause of all of these problems is. And this notwithstanding that support for the government is collapsing, the very last opinion poll, that I've seen puts the Conservatives on 20%. Now, that is unprecedented for the Conservative Party in the run-up to a general election. I mean, 20%, I don't think any party, any of the major parties,

has scored that kind of low figure since the Second World War and the Conservative Party, never in their history. So, I mean, we are looking at a potential complete collapse. Labor, by the way, is on 47%. But that's just a default vote. Professor Curtis, who is the person

who studies the way in which voting intentions are, he predicts there's going to be a very low turnout in the election that's coming because people are so dissatisfied. And Change UK, which is the latest variant of UK, a Brexit party,

all of those, still not formally led by Nigel Farage, that's on 12%. Conservatives are on 20%, change UK's on 12%. And it's not even started properly campaigning yet. That gives you a sense of how

frankly, disillusioned people are in Britain. They sense that they are not being told the truth anymore. All those Ukrainian flags that you used to everywhere, have now vanished, by the way. But the political class cannot change course. On the contrary, it's like the captain of the Titanic. He sees the iceberg and he says, full steam ahead. We can't turn left. We can't turn right. We must just continue in the same direction. Sad to see. All right.

We will end it there. The durand. Dot locals.com. We are on Rumble Odyssey, but shoot telegram, I'm Rock Finn and Twitter X and go to the Duran Shop, 15% of all T-shirts. Take care.