The Duran Podcast - Kupyansk ebb and flow. Huliaipole falling fast

Episode Date: December 17, 2025

Kupyansk ebb and flow. Huliaipole falling fast

All right, Alexander, let's do an update on the military situation in Ukraine. And the sector that is attracting a lot of attention is what is happening in Kupyansk. And Zelensky brought a lot of attention to Kupiansk with his Instagram, TikTok video, which he claims is real, him filming himself on the outskirts of Kupiansk. It has to be said, he wasn't in the city center. he was about two kilometers outside of Kupyansk. He claims that he was there and that Putin's lying about Kupiansk because look where I am. And you have the Russian side of things, which Russian analysts, not associated with the Kremlin,

but telegram channels and Twitter X channels, which are saying, look, we've gone through the video footage. It's either AI, it was either recorded weeks, before everything happened in Kupyansk, when Ukraine still retained some control of Kupyansk. Or it's some other propaganda stunt from Zelensky. This is not really him at the location at the time that he claims he was there. So they're basically refuting or debunking his TikTok video. My own personal opinion on Zelenskyy is being in Kupiansk was that whatever the reality is, it made him look pathetic. That's my take on it.

That's not how you win wars. You're not the president of Ukraine so that you can be dropped, parachuted into a war zone, just so you can prove that the other guy is lying. I think that's this kind of stupid and sad and pathetic. But, you know, that's Olensky. He's, you know, he's a clown puppet comedian guy. So that's what he does. Anyway, I'm saying the Zelensky and Kupiaz thing because that has been the catalyst.

in bringing a lot of attention to what is going on in Kupiansk, which is very hard to understand what is happening in Kupiansk, especially since Putin about a month ago, said that Russia controls the city center of Kupiansk. So we'll talk about Kupiansk, and then we'll also talk about the other areas like Kuliapole and other sectors in Zappadocia, for example. Absolutely. Well, I'll tell you my view about the Stunt, the Zelensky's stunt, is exactly, the same as yours. What kind of a president is it who takes selfies close to a battlefront in order to prove that the other person is lying? I mean, it is beyond bizarre and very stretched. Now, for the record, just for the record, I don't think this was an archived canned vizio. I don't think

it was AI or anything like that. I think Zelensky did indeed go there. He did indeed briefly have footage made of him near to this stelae two kilometers from Kupiansk. It wouldn't have taken very long. I appreciate he has a very packed schedule and it would have been there would have been scheduling issues. But then Zelensky is always somebody who's prioritized media stunts over pretty much everything else. So he would no doubt have found some way to find the time. But I think practically

it proves absolutely nothing in terms of what's actually going on in Kupyansk it wasn't filmed there

he claimed he had gone there but that if he had indeed gone there and the place had been

securely under Ukrainian control so securely under control that he could have gone there as president of Ukraine, then I'm sure we would have had film of it. So the fact that the film was taken two kilometers away from Kupiansk ultimately undermines his own narrative.

But of course, that's not how people are seeing it. And you're getting all sort of people, both on the Ukrainian side, people who are so-called neutrals who also follow the war, some people on the Russian side and both of us read regularly what various Russian bloggers and commentators write and we know that these people always have a tendency to get panicky and gloomy and to overstate things. Anyway, based on this video and based on other reports, they're now talking about a military crisis for the Russians in Kupians, that the Ukrainians are recapturing Kupians. You have all this narrative all over the place. It's all over the media. Now, this is what I think has been

happening. We have had many battles over the course of this war where the Russians have captured positions. The Ukrainians have attempted various counterattacks or various skirmishes, where the Ukrainians have oversold what is really happening. And I suspect that we are seeing something like this. We saw this a few months ago with the city of Toretsk, which the Russians captured, the Ukrainians denied it. They claimed they were counter-attacking there. They got a whole team for the Daily Telegraph to report the story that they were there. It wasn't even true, by the way. And by the way, those people were also about three kilometres away from Torezsk when all that report was made. So we had that. We've had the same thing with a village called Kortlino, which was near Bakrovsk,

We've had this with this territory to the northeast of Pakrovsk, where Sirsky launched his various counter-attacks and things of that kind. We've had a recent incident with a village called Dobropilia in Zaporosia region. The Ukrainians always oversell the counter-attacks that they are undertaking. Here is what I think has been happening. There is a large grouping of Ukrainian troops isolated, trapped by the Russians, east of Kupiansk, on the east bank of the Oswald River. I think the Ukrainians are making a big effort to break through to these troops, probably sending some of their people into Kupiansk itself, to try to reach these troops and to try to evacuate them. that has led to fighting in the area of Kupiansk, but so far, as at the time of the making of this program,

all of those attempts have been unsuccessful. The same has been going on in the Pakrovsk area. The Ukrainians have been conducting many counterattacks to try to extricate their people in Mirnograd, and we'll come to that shortly. they've attacked from Grishino, a village nearby, they've attacked another village, Koshchchenko. They attacked in Rodinska.

There were lots of reports at one time that they'd almost recaptured this small town of Rodetska that lies to the north of Pachrovsk. The counterattacks eventually ebbed, and it turned out in the end, after all the fighting and all the battles, that we'd reverted back to the situation which had existed before

were the Russians basically in control. But in comes Zelensky. He inserts himself into this. He does this video himself. Everybody gets excited. They don't analyze the whole incident in the way that we've just done now. They don't ask why if he really was in Kupiansk.

And Kupiansk has been all but recaptured. We don't have video footage of him there. And the result is, as I said, that we get all this media spin and public relations operations that we've seen over the last couple of days. Obviously, there's fighting going on in this area, but there always has been. And the main battle here is the one that's taking place east of the Osgo River where the Ukrainian forces are surrounded. That's my take of it. Do you think it was premature of Putin last month to announce the capture of Kupyanskro for his generals to bring.

him and tell him that they had captured Kupyansk? No, I don't think it was premature because I think it had happened. The point is that they can't control what the Ukrainians do and the Ukrainians engaged in counterattacks in that area. By the way, something very similar happened with Bachman. There was a time I remember after the Wagner forces, captured Bachmuth, that the Ukrainians conducted a counterattack in Bachmut and they made certain advances and they recovered some ground. They never broke into Bachmut itself. But I remember Sirsky, who was then the local commander in the Bahmert area, claiming again that

the Russians in Bahmert had been surrounded and that the Ukrainians had fire control over the town. So I don't think it was premature. I think what it does, though, is that it doesn't give a sense of the event flow of the battle. And the Russian Defence Ministry has been getting better at providing information about it, but doesn't do what perhaps it ought to do, which is brief people, about the constantly changing situation in the way that it should do. Do you get the sense that this counterattack in Kupianzky is starting to peter out? I don't know. I don't have that.

I mean, I think some channels saying that it does. Yes. I'm just relaying to you what I've read. I'm not saying it is or it isn't. Maybe it's gaining strength. I'm just asking you your sense. At some point, it is going to peter out because the Ukrainians don't have enough resources to make it effective.

And provided the Russians can maintain their trap of the Ukrainian troops on the east bank of the Oscar River, then this counterattack will have failed. If that's the outcome, then it will have failed. So at some point it will ebb. Whether it has ebbed at the moment, I simply don't know, because I'm not there and it's impossible from a distance to be able to assess this. Once we get more drone footage and we get more pictures of the territory, then we will see. But it will probably take some weeks before we can be completely sure that the fighting in Kupiansk has ended and that the Ukrainians have pulled out.

We see this now starting to happen in Pagrovsk, that there is still various people trying to claim that fighting is still going on in Pagrovsk. So it will probably take some time for that to happen. But eventually it will ebb. And just to say something else, I mean, this is one area of an enormous conflict line. And sooner or later, given the crisis that's building up for the Ukrainians, in multiple other places, they will have to end this counter attack because apparently elements of four brigades are now committed to it. And Ukraine doesn't have enough reserves to be able to dispense with these men who are going to be needed in other places before very long. Yeah, I mean, obviously they're taking reserves from other parts and they're focusing them on Kupyansk.

And a lot of it, if not all of it, is due to the negotiations that are taking place in Berlin and the media and PR optics that Zelensky wants to show to the Europeans, but mostly to Trump and the Trump and minister. It's clear what Zelensky wants. And he's ready to sacrifice thousands and thousands of Ukrainian soldiers in order to get that result, which is he wants to show Trump that Putin is a liar and that Ukraine is actually holding their own against Russia. So President Trump, you need to continue to give us money and weapons. That's exactly what Zelensky is aiming for. And he may succeed. I mean, you know, he's going to have support and help from the likes of Kellogg and Rubio to send this message to purchase. this message, this false reality to Trump and Trump, as he's done in the past, may fall for it. I mean, it's not impossible that this plan of Zelensky's might work. Absolutely. Absolutely. Can I just make a point about this? In a very revealing exchange that took place about three weeks ago, Zelensky himself revealed that this is indeed he's thinking. there was at that moment in time, as I remember, an operation, it was already clear that Ukrainian positions in Pakrovsk were collapsing. So there was a meeting in Kiev between Zelensky

and the general staff, the Ukrainian general staff, and General Gnatov, who was the chief of the general staff, said, look, we have to make decisions in Pakrovsk based on military realities. And Zelensky immediately push back. And he said, we can't just give up Bakrosk, because if we give up Pagrosk, that's going to have a bad effect on the Americans. And we must cling on to Pachrovs for as long as we can, because clinging on, making, having good relations with the Americans and keeping the Americans on side at a time when they're pressuring us to make diplomatic concessions is an even greater priority. So he made it absolutely clear what his priority. are. And, you know, one doesn't have to guess because he himself has says this.

Exactly. Okay, so let's wrap it up with other areas on the front line. I think the next area that a lot of people are focusing on is the analysts and that everyone is looking at is Zapparosha and Koliapole, where Russia does appear to be advancing quickly. Absolutely. And I mean, I think what we're looking at here is, I mean, it's like the Russians have advanced very fast, by the standards of this war, very fast since they resumed their offensive in Zaporosia region in July. I mean, they made a big advance eastwards, westwards, rather, through last year. Then in the winter, they captured the town, the small town of Velikaia Novo Silka. then they built up their forces again and reorganized,

and then they resumed the offensive in this area in July, and that they have swept westwards like a tidal wave. Anyway, they then reached Goliath, and there's a fortified line that the Ukrainians had hurriedly tried to put together on the west bank of a small river in this area called the Gaichu River. It looks as if Gulliapolier is falling, and it appears as if the Russians have already managed to pierce that fortified line. So it's like a dam. This fortified line is like a dam, and you're beginning to see the leaks and the cracks, and it looks as if this dam is about to burst.

And the point is if it does, there is no barrier for the Russians, no significant barrier for the Russians. they can advance further westwards all the way to the next big town, which is Oreckhoff, which would then very quickly be surrounded and which would fall, and the next place beyond that is the city of Zaporosier itself and the Nipa. This is a decisive area in the battle. It's becoming increasingly clear that the Russian military are giving this place, this territory, a very high priority. And where we've discussed in many places, in many programs, the decisive effect is the Russians reach the Dnieper in the central territories of Ukraine.

And they are now not that far, it seems, from achieving just that. They moved much faster in this area than anybody had anticipated. It's clear that the Ukrainian defences in the south, in Zaporosian region, are nowhere near as strong as the much more elaborate Ukrainian defenses that had been created in Dombas, which of course is a far more heavily built up region with many towns and factories and industrial areas and swampy land. In the southern steps, the open agricultural land of the southern steps, the Russians have been. able to move very fast by the standards of this war. We should not overlook what is happening in Dombas. I mean, Kupyansk, which is actually in Kharkov region, but it is relevant to the battle in Dombas.

But the situation in Pakrovsk, it looks like that's been cleared up. We now have had Russian journalists visiting Pakrosk and they've reported that Pachrovsk is indeed securely under Russian control. Russians are advancing north of Pakrovsk and the important thing is it looks as if this cauldron of Ukrainian troops in Mirnograd, the town that is immediately to the east of Pakrovsk. It's now been reduced to a very small territory and it looks like it's about to collapse. So once Pakrovsk and Mirnograd fall, the Russians are very well positioned to start rolling up the rest of Donbass as well.

It looks as if they're also heavy fighting going on in the important town of Constantinivka, which is located to the east of Prakosk. So it looks as if Ukrainian defense is in Donbass are crumbling too. But of course it is in Zaporosia region that the most dramatic events are happening. Yeah, just to wrap of the video, what does Zelensky do when he has a military PR disaster in Goliapole. Does he move then the units from Kupiansk to Goliapole to deal with that military PR disaster? And then what happens when he has a military PR disaster westwards from Bakrowski, Mianagrad, which the Russians are clearing up.

It's a cauldron, and they're going to clear it up, and then they're going to move westwards. I mean, it's like you say, it's a dam with all kinds of holes, and Ukraine just does not have the manpower to deal with all of this. Well, what does he do? What does he do when there's a crisis? Is he going to be doing TikTok videos from all of these places? Exactly, exactly. What he does when there's a crisis in Guglopoli, he rushes off to Kupianzka. He has a TikTok video. He makes a TikTok video himself there.

And I mean, that's exactly, I mean, that appears to be increasingly his strategy. It is to try to get a PR operation going, convincing. everybody that Ukraine is successfully holding on and try to get the Americans to put pressure on the Russians, to get the Russians to stop. I mean, that's his strategy. I mean, essentially, it's to persuade the Americans that the war is actually going his way and then to get the Americans angry with the Russians so that the Americans will then put overwhelming pressure on the Russians to get.

the Russians to stop. I don't think he has any other strategy. And the thing is, I think he believes, he believes in this strategy and he's still telling himself that sooner or later is going to work. Because firstly, I think he has a massively inflated idea of the number of losses that the Russians are suffering. I received some information about Russian losses, by the way, which are very, very close. It's very, a close. close to what Kwao Kowhwzeida was telling us in that program that we did, that the West has a massively inflated idea of Russian losses. I think Zelensky does, but I think he also has a massively inflated idea, both of the power of the United States to influence Russia

and of Russia's weakness. He probably reads all the time, all these stories about how it's very easy for the United States to crush the Russian economy. Trump himself has talked in that way. And I think that Zelensky believes it, and I think he believes it, provided he could somehow get the Americans to do this, to cut off the Russian oil supplies and do all of those things, that the Russians will capitulate and then he'll emerge to the victor.

It's desperate. It's unbelievably reckless. But I think that he still believes or clings to the belief that it is true. Yeah. All right. We will end the video there. The durand.locals.com. We're on X-Rone, Robberwell, and Telegram.

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