The Duran Podcast - Kupyansk, MASSIVE cauldron and Donbass accelerated collapse

Episode Date: November 22, 2025

Kupyansk, MASSIVE cauldron and Donbass accelerated collapse

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the military situation in Ukraine. And we have the big announcement from Yerasimov to Russian President Vladimir Putin that Kupianz has been captured. Or as Yerazimov put it, he says that Kupyansk has been liberated. That is the big announcement from the Russian military. Of course, we have all kinds of activity elsewhere. Zaporosia, Pakrovsk, is pretty much. been accepted at Bakrosk has been captured by Russia, though I don't think there's been an official

MOD statement on that. And then you have another area, which is Sevesk, which Russia is advancing in. So your thoughts? This is a very, very interesting moment because Putin again came to the command post of one of the Russian military groups. You remember back in October, he went to the command post. host of the military group that was besieging Pakrovsk. This time he went to a different one, the one that's basically involved in the fighting in Kupians. The West, the West. The West group. And of course, he had the Geracimov there and the top military officers, but of course, they didn't just talk about Kupians. They talked about the whole military situation altogether.

So a number of very interesting things came out, and they do give a really stark picture. of, I would say, accelerating collapse of Ukrainian defences in Dombas. They didn't talk very much about Zaporosia, by the way. Geracimov gave a quick overview of the whole situation across the entire front lines, and he did talk about Zaporosia at Niapro-Petrosk, and he did say that the Russians are indeed advancing there. but it was mostly focused on the fighting in Donbass and Putin also got reports along with the report he got from Geracimov,

from the two military commanders, the military commander who's dealing with the situation in Konstantinovka and Sversk and the military commander who's dealing with the situation in Kupinsk. So let's start with Kupiansk. You're absolutely correct. the Russians, Gerasimov, and the military chief in charge of the battle in Kupinsk. They both say that Kupiansk is now completely under Russian control. The Russians have cleared Kupians.

There is still a large body of Ukrainian troops, 15 battalions, according to Putin. They were all up to strength. That would be about 7.5,000 men. Nobody believes it's that many. significantly less than that. But 15 battalions of Ukrainian troops surrounded, as far as I can tell, in open fields east of Kupiansk, east of the Osgoe River. It's clearly a crisis. The Russians have control of Kupinsk, but they've also surrounded these men there, and there doesn't see to be any chance now that they can escape or that they can break out. It's a question only

of time, it's only a matter of time before either this group surrenders or it is destroyed. And I don't want to speculate about what destroyed means because that is extremely disturbing. The military commander in charge of this operation, however disclosed something else, he disclosed the fact that as he put it, this is the EZium direction. So the Russians are ultimately, ultimately plan to capture EZium. This is an important town north of Slaviansk, which the Russians held in 2022 and whose capture, recapture, would enable the Russians. to encircle the Slavians Kramatosk conurbation from the north. When the Russians held Izzyum in 2022,

they weren't able to keep it because all sorts of other places around Isium was still under Ukrainian control. But now, of course, the Russians are far stronger. It's clear that the Russian object. is to encircle the Ukrainian troops in the Slavians Kramatosk conurbation. Pachrovsk, as you rightly say, is about to fall. In the north, they're going to get easier.

You can see that a massive cauldron is emerging. Now, this commander also disclosed that the important village of Yampal is now under Russian control. There's been some dispute about this, but I've no doubt that this is true, and that the Russians have also now broken into and are in the process of storming Lehman. So, Lehman, another important town in this area, you're getting the sense that Slaviansk is now being surrounded, that the Russians are in the process of surrounding Slaviansk. So that was one very interesting set of revelations. Now, the other Russian commander is in charge of the operations in Siversk and Konstantinovka. Now, he also confirmed that there is fighting going on in Siversk. He said that

Stiversk is being stormed. He gave a very interesting account of what's going on in Siversk. I got the clear impression that Siversk is going to pass. He expects the Russians, to take full control of Sivask, within the next few days. But he is also in charge of the Battle of Konstantinovka, which is the southernmost town of the Slaviansk Kramatovsk-K-Khanik-Klan, of fortified cities. It is a city that lies to the east of Pakrovsk, and it's a bigger place than Pakrosk.

This commander said that he expects his troops to be in full control of Konstantinovka by mid-December, and he said that his forces have reached the center of Konstantinovka and have captured 4,000 buildings in Konstantinvka. So it looks as if the Russians are rapidly gaining control of Konstantinovka as well. Now, the commander who's in charge of the Pakrovs battle was not there. There's a lot of fighting, apparently, still going on in that area, as we know. And Gerassim have said that this is where the Ukrainians have been trying to hold back the

Russians most. They said that 70% of Pakrovsk is now fully secured and under Russian control. I think what that means is that they're still clearing pockets of resistance across Prakrosk, rather than that there's any real continuous belt of control that the Ukrainians have in Pachrosk. The Russians also provided footage of the main fortified area in Pachrosk, which is a microdistrict, called the Shaktaski microdistrict, which is one of these places that the Soviets used to build with very tall and very strong a part. buildings. It is now completely under Russian control. And the Ukrainian troops in Mernograd, where they're mostly now are, are clearly still, well, they're not still, they're definitely surrounded. And there was a discussion about why they were not surrendering. And Gerassim has said that

they're not surrendering because they're being threatened by the Zelensky government. If they do surrender and that provoked some very strong comments about the Zelensky government from Putin, who said that basically that they're a bunch of criminals. But the overall story, Pachovsk about to fall, Mernograd about to fall, Kupyansk has fallen, Leman-Sivarsk falling as well, Konstantinovka also falling, and the Russians targeting isa, which if all of these other places fall, become undefendable. By the end of this year, it's likely we will start to see the full-scale siege of Slaviansk Karnatosk beginning. In other words, the cauldron, the great quadrant in the Dombas that we were talking about, if you remember, back in February and March 22, will have

finally formed. The U.S. military officials in Kiev? were being led to believe, and I'm sure it's true that their main purpose in Kiev was to get the Zelensky regime to agree to Trump's 28-point peace plan. But you got to imagine that if you have the Secretary of the Army, Driscoll, I believe is his name. If you have him in Kiev, that he must have been briefed by Siersky or other Ukraine command about the situation on the front lines. What do you think he's getting? What information? What do you think his takeaway is going to be going to Kiev and trying to get a better understanding of the catastrophe that is unfolding across the entire extended front line? Right. I'm going to say what I think here.

I think that what has happened is that for the last time, couple of months, Trump has been briefed about the military situation in Ukraine, mostly by General Kellogg. And General Kellogg, as we've discussed in many programs, has been basically passing on to Trump, what Zelensky and Siersky and the Ukrainians have been telling him. Now, someone in Washington, I think, has finally understood. that this isn't reliable information. And what has happened is that Kellogg has been cut out of the picture and a completely different set of military people from the Pentagon.

Driscoll and the chief of staff of the army were sent to Kiev. And I think that the original purpose of that trip was exactly as a fact-finding mission to try to get the Ukrainians to actually explain. finally, what is really going on. Now, what then happened is that this all got caught up in the rush to try to get some kind of settlement process going as well. So these Pentagon officials were then also charged with the separate task of telling Zelensky that he must accept or must work with Trump over this peace plan. So I think this is, this is, this mission got muddled. Now, I'm going to say what I think we can be confident about what the Ukrainians will have told the Americans will in no way be true.

The question is whether Driscoll and the army and the army chief, the military men, whether these two officers are going to be as naive and as gullible as gullible as, Kellogg has been. I suspect not. We'll see. We will see. Is there anything that the U.S. can do to stop this collapse? Militarily, there is absolutely... Militarily. We have the 28-point plan, which we've talked about in a previous video, which is Trump's attempt to prevent a type of Afghanistan or fall of Saigon moment. So there is an understanding that there is a big collapse. but is there anything they can do militarily? You know, it's good that you brought up that

because, again, in response to the 28-point plan, there's again been comments by a number of people, including people from the Institute for the Study of War, that if Ukraine surrenders the line of fortified towns in Dombas, then Kiev's outer wall, its main wall, will have fallen, and the Russians will be able to advance all the way to Kiev and that there will be no major obstructions in their way. So, you know, if you follow the logic of that,

and I think, by the way, there is a strong element of truth in this claim, then given the reality, which is that this line of cities is going to fall soon anyway, then that does point to the fact that we are perhaps closer to a potential fall of Kiev, moment, then I think many people in the West understand. So I just want to make that point. It's based on what, if you like, Kiev's Zelensky's advocates in the West have been saying without, I think, fully understanding what they're saying,

they are actually revealing how critical the military situation currently is. So what can the United States do? There is only one way that the United States can prevent the ongoing collapse, and that is by becoming directly involved in the war. By unleashing the US Air Force and sending the US military into Ukraine, there aren't enough troops in Europe, U.S. troops in Europe to do that, but, you know, there is an air force and they could become involved. Now, that's World War III. I don't for one moment believe that Trump really envisages World War III. As part of the 28-point plan, the whole idea of NATO troops,

including U.S. troops in Ukraine, has been shelved. The idea of backstops have been shelved. There is nothing the United States can do, nothing practically. that the United States can do to turn this situation around. There are no weapons it could supply, no military aid it can provide, no intelligence assistance it can provide. The realities are what we have said. The Dombas Front is collapsing. So why would Putin agree, why would Russia agree to a freeze of the front line and to the part of the 20th? a point peace plan, which says that the remainder of Donetsk, of Dombas will be a demilitarized zone.

If they're already, or if they're in the process of preparing the final stage, which is Slaviansk, I mean, Slaviansk effectively is the capture of all the Dombas of Donetsk. It is the capture. It is the capture. It is the capture. Slaviansk and Kermatosek fall, there is nothing left, just empty fields. I mean, that's all. A few villages, but that's all. I mean, it would be the end of, it would be the end of the battle of Donbass. And that is just over the horizon. So what's with this demilitarized nonsense? Well, it is nonsense. It is just nonsense. And again, we come back to Putin himself because, of course, he knows all about this plan. He obviously does know. He's briefed about it. He knows about it. And he went out of his way to make his position absolutely clear. He said to get asked him of.

look, you know, we have our work to do. We have our business to do. Our business is to fulfill all of the objectives of the special military operation. The country expects it. That's what Putin said. And he went on and said that the people who are in charge in Kiev are a bunch of criminals, an organized crime group, who have usurped power and who are using. the war to enrich themselves. Now, this is implacable language, and Putin will have made it in full knowledge, as I said, of all of these plans floating around. So that doesn't sound to me like the kind of rhetoric you would expect from somebody who's interested in freezes, or seaspires, or things of that kind. So, and I think, well, all you have to do is to look

at what Putin was saying. He turned up, by the way, in military uniform and a camouflage jackets and all of that. He was spoke, he was addressed as military chief. The whole tone of the language of this meeting was very, very much. Putin, as the commander-in-chief, wanting all of the objectives achieved, the objectives that he set out back in February, 2022, which he's reiterated many times since, and expanded in his speech to the foreign ministry in June last year, and which he will probably be expanding soon again before very long. So I don't get the sense that he's in any kind of mood

to compromise at all. Final question. Does Zelensky and his entourage do they bolt? Do they leave Kiev if Slaviansk falls, when Slaviansk falls? I think that's a given. That Slaviansk will eventually fall. I mean, I don't think there's anything. As you said, there's nothing that's going to stop Russia from completing its goals of the special military operation, except maybe U.S. boots on the crown, which would be World War III. So, okay. If that happens, Is that when Zelensky, given also all this corruption scandal stuff? I know the Europeans are coming to bat for him. I know the Europeans are supporting him.

Zelensky even told parliament members that Yermak is not going anywhere because he has the cover of the Europeans. But the Europeans cannot protect him in a way that the United States can protect him or the U.S. military can protect him or in a way that the U.S. military can perhaps prevent. for a certain time, Russia's advance, the Europeans are nowhere near that. Does Zelensky realize, okay, it's game over, I need to leave? Quite possibly. I get the sense that the mood in Kiev now is becoming extremely fractious. My own view, by the way, about the corruption scandal is, yes,

is possible the Americans have had a big input in it. They might have given the green light for it. But to me, it looks like a power struggle, which is being engaged in by an utterly corrupt political class. Every part of this political class is corrupt, by the way. I mean, I think that we need to understand that. So, you know, some of the people who are cheering this investigation on are themselves corrupt. And basically what this is about is them pushing aside other people who are corrupt, Yermak, Mero, whomever, so that they can step in, fill up their suitcases before the time has come to bolt. So I think the fact that this is going on points to an oncoming collapse fairly soon.

Quite plausibly, when Sloviansk, Kramatos fall, when the line of cities falls, when the Russians reach the Dnieper, which won't be much longer. I mean, we haven't discussed the situation in Zaporosia, at NEPA, Petrosk regions in this program. But the Russian advance towards the Dnieper is continuing at the same pace. And it is at least as important as what's going on in Dombas, because it brings the Russians closer and closer to the Dnieper, closer and closer to the point where they're able to occupy the cities, you know, the big cities, Zaporosia, Hearson, ultimately, Neapro as well. So, at that point, and it may not be many very far away, given the very poor condition of the Ukrainian army.

Yes, quite likely, you're going to see a rush of people leaving Kiev. We've already seen some indications, telltale signs of it. I think Zelensky will not be the first to go, but he won't be the last either. Probably there'll be a staging point, quite possibly they will move west to somewhere like Jitemir or Vinica and then maybe it'll live. But the very fact that they're leaving Kiev will accelerate the fall of Kiev itself because if the government isn't there, why would they want to defend Kiev, just to say? Or why would the soldiers defend Kiev?

And then, of course, we'll start to see things start to move faster still. And at that point, probably they will want to go abroad too. We'll see. All right. We will end the video there, the durand.com. We are on X-Rumble and Telegram. We are also on Substack. There's a link for our substack in the description box down below.

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