The Duran Podcast - Lavrov critical of performative US 'mediated' negotiations

Episode Date: February 10, 2026

Lavrov critical of performative US 'mediated' negotiations

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the situation with Project Ukraine and the diplomacy around Project Ukraine. And I guess a good place to start is with Lavrov's latest interview. Lavrov does not hold anything back. No. He seems to get it. I think he understands what's going on. Obviously, he's got a lot more information than any of us do. But this is the first time that I've heard.

heard Lavrov put it all together and express it in a way that gives you a good idea as to how he's seeing the negotiations progressing, how he saw the Alaska meeting go down and his belief in what the Europeans are planning to do, what the collective West is planning to do, as well as the United States. I think he's the one Russian official right now at the moment. Maybe Medvedev is also part of that. But he's not really drawing so much of a distinction between the Europeans and the United States. He's not kissing up to the Trump administration.

He's basically looking at the collective West with the United States in the lead role as trying to exert their dominance not only over Russia, but over the world. And he just came out with it and said it that the United States and the collective West is looking to control energy, they're looking to control the world economy, trade, and they're doing it in a very unfair, very aggressive way. And it was quite an honest. And I would say at times, his expression wasn't angry, but you can tell that he's frustrated and angry with a lot of what's happening. That's my opinion as to how I read the interview. But what do you think? Well, I thought it was the single most outspoken interview that Lavrov has given in all of the time that he's been foreign minister.

It was very interesting. And there was one specific point that he made, which is, I thought, the key to understanding the whole interview, which was that he said that Putin went to the Anchorage Summit. He's one summit with Trump, agreed to some kind of proposals that Trump and Witgov put to him, which was the Anchorage formula, which we've never really had explained to us. We never really told exactly what that formula is, that this proposal was supposed to be the proposal that was going to provide the framework for future negotiations. And he also says that the Americans appear to have given up on it. They have gone back on it. They are not working within the framework of the anchorage formula any longer, which, as far as I could see, is in effect a criticism of the whole diplomatic process, the whole negotiation process.

and implicitly, and I have to say this, it's a criticism of Putin's approach. I mean, he doesn't obviously say that. He doesn't publicly criticize Putin. But basically what he's saying to Putin is, look, you came to this, what you thought was this agreement with Trump. That agreement, really, it isn't working. The Americans have already walked back on it. why are we bothering with these negotiations anymore?

What is the purpose of them? As we can see, the reality is that we made a concession in Anchorage on the basis of a proposal by the Americans, which the Americans have now withdrawn. So we're still going through the motions of negotiating on the basis of something that doesn't exist. And in the meantime, the Americans as part of their quest for global dominance, continue to seize, try to seize the oil, the energy supplies of most of the world. And we saw what they did in Venezuela.

We see what they're trying to do in Iran. How can we continue to work with the Americans? How can we continue to conduct negotiations and discussions with them, given that this is the situation that we are in with them today? They are not negotiating in good faith, and we shouldn't pretend that they are. Now, we've had every so often moments when points of criticism have appeared after Trump, imposed sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoyle, well, said Trump and Besant imposed those sanctions. We have it from Lavrov himself now.

He told us, he said in an interview he actually gave, this is a separate interview, that he actually gave a few days ago, about a week ago, that Putin was completely taken surprised by those sanctions, that he hadn't expected them, because he still thought that there was going to be some kind of negotiation process ongoing. So this is, when that happened, rather, Medvedev came out. He said, let's stop treating Trump as a negotiating partner.

Let's recognize him for the enemy that he really is. And basically, Lava Off is now coming out. And he's saying the same thing. I am going to suggest that there are two things that have probably crystallized this issue. Well, three things. Firstly, the Valdai attack, which is still clearly a major issue for many people in Moscow. The foreign ministry brought it up in a statement that they published a week ago, which we discussed in a previous program. The second has to be the attempted assassination of Alexeyev. And the general, who is the deputy of the chief negotiator that the Russians have sent and who's been meeting with. with the Americans and the Ukrainians in Abu Dhabi. And there's now reports that Alexev was himself a part of the negotiating team that has not been confirmed.

But the Russians themselves are saying that they've caught the assassin, that he was captured in the UAE, that he's been brought back to Russia, that he is indeed somebody from Ukraine, and he appears to have been working. In fact, he definitely was working for Ukrainian intelligence. And I think the third thing that has infuriated people like Lavrov is the continued pressure from the Americans on India specifically to stop buying Russian oil. So I think all of these things have come together and Lavrov is now going public. And I can't help but think that this interview that he's given is an implicit criticism of Putin himself.

I almost read it as Lavrov saying it's time to wake up. I mean, this is the stop, stop, and it's time to wake up and see what the Trump administration is up to, what's at play here. And Lavrov is right. I mean, it's obvious that the Trump administration, that what their main goal is to control, to continue the unipolar moment, to control the world economy, absolutely, to control resources. to control energy. They're seizing ships, they're kidnapping world leaders, they're pressuring BRICS partner states like India to stop purchasing Russia. And all, by the way, Alexander, what are your thoughts on the Reuters reports,

saying that India has stopped its purchase of Russian oil? So that has been reported on by Reuters. and it's just interesting to hear Lavrov put this all together while at the same time it just I continue, I get the sense that Putin is still very much hoping to get a deal with Trump, not realizing what Trump's angle is. I mean, that's the sense that I get. And I could be kind of probably wrong about this. You know, Putin's probably playing a much more sophisticated game than I could ever imagine.

But you just get that sense that everyone around Putin is saying enough, but he's still desires, is still pushing for this imaginary fantasy, rep Prashmon relationship with Donald Trump. Lavrov is not in any of these negotiations either. I think it's important to point that out. No. The foreign ministry is not participating in the negotiations. at all. We don't know the exact makeup of the negotiating team in Abu Dhabi, but it seems that there aren't any people from the foreign ministry there, which is really very extraordinary. And it does

suggest that Lavrov and the foreign ministry are hostile to this old negotiation process. About the Reuters reports, I would take them, I would take them skeptically. I mean, they may be true. But I doubt that this is a long-term decision by India. And the Indian government itself has taken, has said nothing so far about stopping imports of Russian oil. It may be that there are these talks going on in the background, but I suspect that the Russian oil trade will continue and it will resume exactly as it did in the autumn. You remember Trump put pressure on Modi before? And in the end, it turned out that India was continuing to import Russian oil and I suspect they continue. They will continue to do so. But the point is less whether India is buying Russian oil or not.

China is, of course, continuing to buy Russian oil. I don't think there's any question about that. Russian oil will continue to reach global markets. I don't think anybody seriously doubts that. What is much more important is that the Americans are continuing to put pressure on countries like India. They're still trying to interfere and involve. themselves in ways that put pressure on Russian exports and on the Russian economy. By the way, Lavaov also pointed out that back in April of last year, Trump actually extended these sanctions on Russia. So he didn't, so far from walking any of them back, he actually made them worse.

So that's the first thing to say. So I think there has been a long-standing debate in Moscow. I think about whether or not this attempt to negotiate with Trump really makes any sense. I think this started in earnest in the autumn. That was the time, if you remember, when there were proposals from Trump to send Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine and when the sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoyle were imposed. And then there was that series of meetings with Witgoth and Kushner and the Dimitriyev came in and we got the 28 points,

which looked watered down from some of the original things that were discussed. And that seemed to get the whole process restarted again, and we've had these talks in Abu Dhabi. I think that as the talks in Abu Dhabi have continued, and as all of these various other actions that we have seen happen, have resurfaced, people are coming back and are saying to Putin, look, you've invested a huge amount of time. By the way, I should say, I do think Putin is playing a complicated 4D chess game here. I think Putin does want a dialogue with the Americans. From his point of view, as he's explained many times, it is better for Russia to have a dialogue with the Americans than not. He has prioritized the security of Russia's Western borders.

He said that in a speech he gave to the foreign ministry way back in November 20. December 2021. He wants some kind of general agreement with the Americans, not because he's starry-eyed about the Americans or isn't aware of what they're about, but because he thinks it's in Russia's interests. But I think that over the course of the autumn, a lot of people were telling him in Moscow, look, this isn't going anywhere. It isn't going to work. You're trying to negotiate with people who are not interested ultimately in the kind of negotiated solution that you want. Concentrate on the war. Forget about what the Americans are doing and are saying, forget about Trump. He's not a reliable negotiating partner. As I said, we've had this strange episode since

November when it looked as if something might happen after all. I doubt whether people people like Medvedev and Lavrov changed their views. I doubt that their skepticism went away, but now they've come back and they're expressing their criticism publicly. To me, as I said, this interview looked like a criticism of Putin. A general agreement on the Western border with the United States on what exactly, what is he expecting from the United States? I mean, the United States is not going to create this new security infrastructure for architecture for Europe. It's not going to happen. It would be great if they did.

That's what they should do. They should be sitting. Putin's right. The president of the United States and the president of Russia should be sitting down together without Ukraine, without the Europeans, and they should decide how to create a new security architecture for all of Europe with the U.S.'s interests and with Russia. interests. I mean, this is what they should be doing. And the United States can decide on Europe's interests. I mean, I say that because I can't figure out what leader in Europe would be

capable enough to sit down at the table with those two. Maybe Orban. I don't know. But anyway, it's not going to happen, though. It's not with Trump. And while I agree with Putin's thinking and his goal. I think everyone is in agreement that Russia, the United States should get along and that Russia should secure its western border and that they need to figure out how to coexist in Europe and how to work together in Europe. The counterargument would be they blew up Nord Stream, they sanctioned Russia, they continue to sanction Russia, they continue to try to destroy Russia's energy infrastructure, they continue to try and break apart brick. And every time you negotiate with the United States with Trump, he either walks it back or he sends drones into Valdei.

Or they go after the main negotiators second in command. Because the reports from the FSB are that the SBU is behind it. This is what the FSB is saying. The SBU is behind it. And they're claiming that Polish intel played its part. Well, how can the SBAU and Poland Intel, if this is true from the FSP, how could they be involved and not have at the end of all of this, not have ultimately the United States behind all of this or U.S. Intel agencies playing a role in this. I find that hard to believe that this could have just been the SBU or just Poland. But maybe it was. This is what the FSB is claimed. I mean, the counter argument to Putin's. desire to secure the western border and to secure some sort of an understanding and a peace with the United States.

The counterargument is that, okay, that's all well and good, but the United States doesn't want that. And every time you sit down with the United States, they come after us. I mean, physically, they come after us. Exactly. So, I mean, how do you negotiate in that type of environment? Well, I'll tell you what I think the problem is, and it's one that I have this aspect to me, as many people have pointed out to me many times myself. I think Putin is an extremely rational person. I mean, some people say I'm also a rational person.

Rational people have a tendency to assume that the other people that they are dealing with are as rational. as themselves. And I think this is where Putin makes his mistake. He made it with Angela Merkel, for example. He said, well, Nord Stream absolutely makes sense for Germany. The Germans surely are not going to destroy their entire economy by switching off Nord Stream. I mean, they may absolutely no sense for them to do that. So he goes ahead. He gives the permission to do Nord Stream. And of course, he has all of these meetings. with Merkel and he has Minsk 1 and Minsk 2 and he says, well, from Germany's point of view, it makes much better sense economically, politically, for them to maintain a good relationship

or at least a stable relationship with us. They're not surely going to go all the way and tear everything apart and trigger a massive crisis for themselves because it would, make no sense for them to do so. Now, in 2015, by the way, I thought the same as him. I say this because that's what I thought. I mean, I thought for many years, you know, after Mintz too was agreed, that, you know, this is the Germans obviously understood where their own interests were and would move forward towards implementing them. And Putin looks at the situation the United States is in. Now, he sees how massively overextended it is. He's aware of the economic and financial strains that do exist in the United States.

He is aware that the Americans hanker to refocus their forces and their energies on the Asia-Pacific region, where China is becoming a major adversary. And so he says to himself, well, of course, the Americans, it is in their interests to come to an understanding with us. So let's do so. I mean, we know, well, obviously we're not going to go against the interests of our Chinese friends who are anyway urging us for entirely different reasons to try to find some kind of diplomatic solution to this war. But let us try to find a way to do that because the Americans in their own interests will want that result. And so do we. And of course, again, what he doesn't understand, just as he doesn't understand, he didn't understand it with the Germans, is that these people who he imagines are rational are not as rational as he imagines them to be. Now, as I said, it's a mistake that rational people make many times. And as I said, I've made it, I like to think I'm rational. I think, I know, I know that people make that mistake. And I think that this is the mistake that Putin is making. He assumes

that in Washington, Trump of all people is as logical, as hard-headed as realistic as he is. And of course, he's not. Even today, even after all the posts on truth, everything that Trump says, everything that he does, everything that he did with Venezuela, black, The sanctions on Russia, the warnings of the secondary sanctions and 500% bone crushing sanctions and his paling around with Stubb and with Lindsey Graham, Putin still believes that Trump is a rational player in all this? Really? No.

I mean, you would think that by now, Putin would say, you know, okay, nothing's coming out of this. Yeah. Unless of course you get back to the stringing along, the U.S. is stringing Russia along and Putin's stringing the U.S. along. But, you know, just to wrap up the video on this point, Lavrov also mentioned that the Europeans absolutely are gearing up for a conflict with Russia. And he put the same date of 2028, 29, which is a date that the Europeans are constantly throwing out there. I mean, they're telegraphing what they want to do, which is a conflict with Russia by 20, 28, 2029, 2030, whatever. That's the timeline that they've set. My own view about Putin is, by the way, that his views are evolving. I think that when he met

Trump in Anchorage, he did generally believe at that time that he had a deal done, that it was obviously that Trump was as interested in a good relationship with Russia as he was, and that over time, it would play out in the way that Putin wanted. He imagined then that he had a rational, a fully rational, a person, a partner who was as rational and as tough-minded and as realistic as Putin is himself. And I think what happened was that over the course of the autumn, Putin himself also began to have doubts. And yes, there's been this flurry of activity since November with, firstly, the Dmitriya Fwickoff conversations, and then with the up 28 points, if you remember, which. But I do actually increasingly think that with Putin, it's increasingly becoming for him also a case.

to him stringing the Americans along, just as the Americans are stringing the Russians along. The most interesting thing about Putin, the thing that really is difficult to explain in any other terms is that since the new year, he hasn't publicly spoken about this diplomatic process at all. In fact, he said very little about the whole Ukraine issue entirely. he's been mostly silent about it. He's not said very much about Donald Trump. He's not said very much about the United States. He himself is saying as little as he can. And that I think is a sign, firstly, that there is an ongoing internal debate about this whole issue in Moscow. And I think that Putin himself is starting to change his perspective. I suspect, by the way, that it was the

Rosnev-Lucos sanctions that probably moved him first, even more perhaps, than the Tom Hork issue did, and perhaps, to say frankly, the attack on Valdai. Do you think that Putin's going to accelerate things now with the conflict in Ukraine? Well, he's been, the Russians have been hitting Ukraine terribly over the last few weeks. I mean, every single day we get more attacks on the energy system across Ukraine. Ukraine is in deep crisis. And obviously, this is being done with Putin's, not just his permission, but ultimately with his full agreement.

And there was that strange episode of the energy ceasefire, the seven-day energy ceasefire that Trump wrote to Putin about. Notice that Putin has made no public comment about it. He's not spoken about it. Peskov has, but Putin has said nothing. Again, very interesting that he's keeping absolutely silent about this. And as we saw when the Russians did announce the energy ceasefire, admit rather that there was one,

it only lasted for three days, not seven, from the moment when they confirmed it. And it was immediately followed up by the moment. powerful missile and drone strike that Ukraine has experienced up to this point. So I do think his position is shifting. And I think anyway that the situation on the front lines is deteriorating for Ukraine all the time. I think that's probably Putin, well, he had Witkoff and Kushner come along. They came with his ideas. They're late. ideas. Importantly, they didn't show Putin this security guarantee document that they have been

talking about with Zelensky, which I suspect must have annoyed Putin a great deal. And it has certainly annoyed Lavrov. He's complained about this repeatedly in interview, after interview. I think the Russians, as I said, are going through the motions, having these meetings in Abu Dhabi. They wanted to discuss the dirty war issues there. We can see that that's made no difference. I think that even Putin now, probably by this point, I think already by some time ago, actually,

was starting to doubt that this was going to lead anywhere and that the Russians have been focusing more and more on the war. Just to wrap up the video, Is Putin putting his full trust in the general staffing Yadazimov? Or is he still holding them back on certain things? I mean, it's still an SMO. It's still a special military operation. But do you think that Yadazimov has a blank check pretty much to do what he wants

without Putin having to approve things? or is Putin still putting his stamp on what Gerasimov can do and what Gerasimov can not do? Gerasimov obviously has to report to Putin and does so regularly as we know he does. Things like the energy war, for example. I mean, they can't be escalated in the way they have been over the last few weeks without Putin's express agreement. I mean, it's inconceivable to me that the kind of attacks that had been taking place on Kiev would have happened without Putin himself being involved. But my own personal view about this is that Putin actually basically told Gerasimov and the general staff,

you can run things on the front lines in Ukraine in any way you choose. I think he gave them that. He's told them that in late 2020, early 2023. the reason that the war has gone on longer and has been conducted more incrementally than many people expected is because firstly, it turns out that the Russian army in 2022 was much smaller and less prepared for this kind of war than most of us at the time assumed. And secondly, obviously, because of the enormous help that Ukraine has received from the West, but in 2022, in late 2020, Medvedev was put in charge of the Military Industrial Commission.

He's been the person who's been running the military production, the production of missiles and drones and tanks and all shells and all of those things. and I suspect that on a day-to-day basis, Gerasimov and Medvedev are basically running the wall. And it is they who have been building up the Russian army to the extent that it has been built up over the last three years. And that army, of course, continues to grow and it continues to get more powerful. And we are close now to the point when the Russians will be able, probably in the same, spring to launch their offensive to gain full and final control of Donbaths and Zaporosia region as well. And I firmly expect that to happen this year.

But as I said, I think on the ground in terms of day-to-day running of the wall, Gerasimov is able to do whatever he chooses. Bigger objectives like ultimately going for Odessa or Kiev, Gerasimov obviously is going to have to agree was Putin himself. But meetings that took place between Putin and the generals at the end of last year suggested to me that Putin has already given the green light for Adessa as well. Okay. We will end the video there, the durand. Dotlocals.com. We are on Rumble and X and Telegram. We are also on Substack. So check us out on Substack. The link is in the description box down below and also go to the Duran shop, pick up some merch, 26% off all the merch in our shop. That link is also in the description box down below. Take care.