The Duran Podcast - Lavrov's answer to Blinken's Ukraine conflict freeze

Episode Date: September 30, 2023

Lavrov's answer to Blinken's Ukraine conflict freeze The Duran: Episode 1709

All right, Alexander. Let's talk about the recent interview and statements from Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, who of course talked about the conflict in Ukraine, talked about the collective West partners, as Russia used to call them. They're partners in the West. I don't know if they're still using that term. And he also talked quite a bit about what's going to. on in Armenia as well, Russia-Armenia relations, which are going through a very difficult time. And we also have some statements connected to the conflict in Ukraine from Avalodin, from Shoygu, and we are hearing more and more the Russian government, the Putin administration,

pushing back against the idea of some sort of armistice or Korea-like freeze. I think they're making it very clear that this idea that is floating around the halls of Congress and around the Biden White House is a non-starter for them. I wonder if Sullivan and Blinken are getting the message. Well, they're clearly not getting the message, and we're getting very strong statements now coming out of the Russians. And on that very specific topic that you said about the freeze and the ceasefire, Lavrov categorically and emphatically over the course of this latest interview.

And for the second time in a week, he straightforwardly ruled it out. He said that what the West wants to do is that they want to freeze the conflict on the present ceasefire lines so that they can rearm Ukraine. And that is unacceptable to Russia and that the Russians will not agree. He said it as straightforwardly as that. And of course, in a previous interview, he said that, yes, the Russians are prepared to talk, they're prepared to sit down, and they're prepared to conduct negotiations. But these have to be on meaningful proposals.

So far, none of the proposals they've received, which officially still are based on Zelensky's peace plan, which is a peace plan which is unacceptable to Russia. It's about withdrawing all their troops, handing over all the troops, handing over all the territory, basically capitulating entirely, and then talking about something. But, you know,

if something serious is proposed, the Russians are prepared to discuss it, but there will be no ceasefire. There is no possibility of any kind of ceasefire at all. And he said this again in his interview, the second interview that he gave, which he gave yesterday. So I don't know whether Sullivan and Blinken and company are listening.

But Lavrov has stated it absolutely clearly, and you're completely right, other officials in the Putin government are coming out, and they're making statements, and this is clearly coordinated, and they are exceptionally hard-lying. So we had Volodyn, who is the Speaker of the Russian Parliament, the lower house of the Russian parliament, the Duma, the more important part of the Russian parliament. He's come forward and he said that there is only one outcome to this war. That is either Ukraine capitulates completely or it ceases to exist as a state. That was what Vologin said.

I mean, very stark. And then we had another comment from Shoygu in which he said that Ukraine is on a path to self-destruct. which essentially mirrors what the Lord did say. So the Russian government is going out of its way to make it absolutely clear. The Putin administration is going out of its way to make it absolutely clear. They are not interested in a ceasefire. They are not interested in a freeze. They are not going there.

And of course, they're not prepared to discuss Zelensky's peace plan, which is the only plan so far that the West has put on the table. And of course, all of these other suggestions and mumbled proposals that we hear offstage about South Korean variants and West German variants. That's not ever been put in a formal document to the Russians, so they're just ignoring it. Okay, so I think we have, before we get to Armenia, which I think is an interesting topic, because Lovov said a lot of interesting things about Armenia. would you say that we have a massive disconnect between the United States, Sullivan and his side, the Russians, and the Zelensky administration. What do I mean by that?

You know, Lavrov and the Putin administration, for them, Ukraine is an existential issue. Yes. Okay? And they're saying it, either capitulation or serious, negotiations, but negotiations that are substantive. That solves this problem that we keep on having with

Ukraine and, more importantly, with NATO expansion. So they want this issue solved. Okay, those are their terms for negotiations. If they don't get that, then they're going to, they're going to, it's going to be a military

solution. Yes. They're clear about that. Yes. The Zelensky regime is losing, it's lost, two weeks till the rain and muds comes in on the front line, the counteroffensive is not going anywhere. They, they, they readjusted the, the, what success means, and now it's getting to the outskirts of Tokmach. It's not even about the sea of Ozoff. So they're not even getting there. Zolensky regime, to me, these individuals are fighting for their very survival, like

on planet Earth. Yes. That's how I see. see it. Yes. But Ukraine is is also fighting for its survival, and there are soldiers that are, that are, you know, being sent to the front lines, and, and, and, you know, they're dying as, as this regime, this Olensky regime is, is trying to figure a way to, to, to keep in power, and to stay alive. But then you have the big disconnect from the U.S. side, because my feeling, my sense of things, is that the Biden White House, and actually, I would say even the, the Republicans, the rhinos, the McConnell's. For them, Ukraine is now a political issue.

It's not even a military issue anymore. It's about the politics of deterring China. It's about not having this damage the Democrat Party. Maybe not damaging the rhinos and the Republicans as well. I mean, Ukraine has shifted now for them to just be a topic that needs a political solution. That's my sense of things. is that correct absolutely now how are you seeing this because this is a huge divide if this i mean negotiations are going to be impossible if this is the case oh absolutely i mean i'm going

to be frank i think listening to what the russians are saying listening to what i mean reading especially lavrov and of course lavrov because he's the foreign minister is always the most measured he has to be he has to say things that he can then judge justify when he talks to, say, Modi or the Indian foreign minister or the foreign ministers of the African Union or those sort of people. So he has to be more careful in his choice of words. But reading what Lavrov says and then looking at what people like Valordin and Shoygu say, my own strong feeling is that the Russians are no longer interested in negotiations. They don't believe negotiations are going to work.

Lavrov in his latest interview, he said, how can we trust anybody? How can we trust anybody after what happened over the Minsk Agreement? They accuse us of undermining Ukraine's sovereignty. The whole point about the Minsk Agreement, which we negotiated, was to preserve Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity. It was they who undermined it, and they lied to us about it. So how can we negotiate with these people? How are our negotiations realistically going to happen in this context?

Reading Lavrov, it's absolutely clear to me that the Russians themselves now believe that a military solution is the only one that is going to happen. And I should say something. You talked about the failure of Ukraine's offensive, which I think it's becoming more and more clear by the day. As I said, they've got two weeks before the rains begin, they've suffered titanic losses over the course of the summer. Even by World War II standards, this would have been a big, big battle and a big defeat. And, of course, we're not in a kind of World War II scale war. So I think the Russians assenting victory. They're saying to themselves, we've seen this thing off, we've dealt with the worst, the West.

can throw at us, our forces are in the business of building up, we're getting stronger all the time. So why should we negotiate at all? We don't trust the other side. They're not coming up with sensible or coherence solutions. They've shown in the past how little they think of us, how they, you know, they've lied to us at every turn. So we're going through the motions. We have to go on saying that if a meaningful proposal is put to us, we'll sit down and discuss it because

we have to do that, but basically we don't believe that's ever going to happen and of course we will never agree to a ceasefire. A military solution now is the only one that we believe will happen. I think that's the Russian position. I think for the

Ukrainians, I think you're absolutely correct, the Ukrainian leadership. They don't want any kind of peace negotiated or ceasefire negotiated for them personally that would be a disaster for the leadership for people like Zelenskyy

and Podoliac and Yarmak and all of those people I think it would be very very dangerous for them to go down that route and I was reading an interview that Kirilo Budanov the Ukrainian intelligence chief gave to the drive.

And I have to say reading it, I could see why people like Zelensky and Yermak and Padoliac would be frightened of going down the route of meaningful negotiations. Because Budana, whom I have come to think of as embodying, if you like, the extreme hardliners in Kiev, and who I have read articles in the British media who also identify him as the extreme hardliner in Kiev. What he basically wants is for Ukraine to go down fighting.

And he is determined, and people around him are determined that no one who is in any position of authority should pull back from that. And if Zelensky comes up with proposals for negotiations, it's people like Wadanov in Kiev, who remember, runs an assassination program in Russia and all of that. It's people like him that they would have to, you know, answer to. So the Ukrainians don't want to do that,

and it's not going to happen from their side. Now, in the United States, the counter-offensive, the failure of the counter-offensive has completely changed. the dynamics. They no longer seriously believe that they can defeat the Russians. I think this is probably the case. They no longer believe

that they can engineer regime change in Russia. So Ukraine has gone from being the grand strategy that was going to win us the new Cold War and secure hegemony to becoming a political problem in the United States itself.

And that is now how the American political class, of every, you know, all the factions within it, apart from, you know, the populist wing of the Republican Party, which has been opposed to this basically from the outset. But the mainstream factions, that's now how they're looking at it. So the Democrats want to find some way to offload it. They want to perhaps, they're looking perhaps to blame any failure there on the Republicans.

The Republicans want to fasten it on the Democrats. And I think you're absolutely right. I think that is their priority. It is for them now, a political problem connected with the domestic political struggle in the United States. It's no longer an issue of grand strategy anymore. No, it's an issue about deterring China now as well. Absolutely. Well, of course.

It's not really about Ukraine, everybody. It's not really. The money that we've spent on Ukraine is money well spent. Oh, absolutely. been really well spent money and it's going to deter China. That's the campaign slogan. Well, that's the campaign. So it might even be the rationalization.

I mean, and, you know, there are probably some people who believe it. I mean, I can imagine that Mitch McConnell, for example, might possibly believe it. Or more plausibly still, Lindsay Graham might believe it. But, I mean, they say all of this, but at the same time, I think some of them are probably clever enough to know that that's hogwash, frankly. And, you know, that at the same time, they understand that they have a problem on their hands and they've got to try and find some way of walking away from it and, you know, not getting attached, not having any blame fastened on them.

And one of the ways is to talk about it far less than they did. And you're starting to see that. You're starting to, I mean, I've noticed, for example, that the media here in Britain, is talking far less about Ukraine over the last couple of days than the last couple of weeks than it used to do even a few weeks ago. I mean, this story is now fading fast. And from what I can see in the United States, it's the case also. It's now become as part of the background news.

You see it on the, you know, you see that there's always a little article somewhere or, you know, bottom of the front page of the New York Times that goes about Ukraine, but far more important things are happening. Now, the election next year is the really important business. You're not really worried about, you don't want people thinking about Ukraine anymore or talking about it very much. And by the way, I completely endorse your view that another reason for wanting to step,

away from Ukraine is because of the disaster at the Canadian Parliament. I think within the US, that did cut through to an awful lot of people outside the political system. And that's going to make the political professionals there even more careful about how they handle this issue from this point onwards. Yeah, I agree with that. You know, the one thing that they have to avoid, which I think is on their mind, is they can't have the optics of what happened in Afghanistan. understand. That's what I think really concerns. Yes. They can't have a plane taking off with people hanging on onto the plane as it's flying away. They cannot have that at all costs. So that's what I think they're trying to manage here.

But let's maybe shift to Armenia now. Yeah. Because I think our analysis was 100% spot on our media. Look, Paschignan, he engineered this whole debacle with Naganu Karabakh. That's what everything is showing now. And, you know, some at the power in Armenia, I believe the deputy, one of the deputy secretary of states, I forgot her name. She was in Armenia. You're getting statements from Macron talking about how France is going to take Armenia in. You're getting statements from the United States saying that they're going to pull Armenia into the U.S. security architecture.

Bashinyan is now openly saying that, you know, Russia needs to get out pretty much. There's pretty much the statements that you're getting now. Russia's going to get out. We're going west. I mean, they didn't even wait a week until this debacle in Nakorno-Karabakh, at least sorted itself out. If it's ever going to sort itself out,

this is a catastrophe for Armenia. But, you know, they're showing their cards pretty, pretty up front here. They're being pretty straight up as to as to where Armenia is now going to pivot towards. Indeed. And they're being very antagonistic to Russia, which I find to be a huge mistake. Well, absolutely. And I completely agree. And I mean, let's be very clear. This conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is not resolved. There's no peace treaty between these two countries. There were supposed to be negotiations for a peace treaty. These were based on the agreements that were broken by Putin way back in 2020.

But of course, why would the Azerbaijanians now agree to a peace treaty? They've got Nagorno-Karabakh. They're in a position of enormous military superiority. They know perfectly well that Armenia is not going to get the kind of protection from the West, that it once got from Russia, and they will be angling before very long. I have no doubt to start encroaching further and further on Armenia's border with Azerbaijan, which has not been fully delineated. So, I mean, this is only starting.

This is not the end of this affair, whatever Paschinyan and his people, his followers may think. But, you know, you're absolutely right. Lavrov has discussed this extensively. And it's interesting that if you go to the Russian foreign ministry, website. The only part of this latest interview, the one that he made yesterday, with Lavrov, that has so far been translated and published by the Russian Foreign Ministry on the website, is the part that relates to Armenia. And Lavrov has made further comments. The Russian foreign ministry has published a long statement. They've discussed in detail Paschignans negotiating

strategy, his political strategy. They talk about how Armenia was flooded with NGOs, Western NGOs, the way in which this distorted the Armenian economy because

people who worked for the NGOs got paid an awful lot more money than people could realistically be paid for working in the rest of the Armenian economy. How this has clearly been a long-standing project to detach Armenia from Russia. And the foreign ministry statement and Lavrov statements go into the details about the recent negotiations,

how Paschunyan went and met with the EU in Prague and Brussels, and went back on an agreement that had actually been reached with Azerbaijan and brokered by Putin, which is that the final status of Nagorno-Karabakh would be defecutive. deferred until negotiations for the peace treaty between Armenia and Russia had been sorted out. And instead of sticking to that position, Paschignan, at the urging of the European Union, suddenly and unexpectedly, and without blindsiding the Russians completely, suddenly announced that Armenia accepts that Nagorno-Karabakh falls under the sovereignty of Azerbaijan. So this has all been set out.

The Russians have said this is Armenia's decision. They're not going to interfere directly with it. They're not going to sanction Armenia. But they think Armenia is making a huge mistake. It's isolating itself from Russia. It won't be able to do that indefinitely. The Russians have also gone out of their way to say that any hopes or expectations that they're going to lose interest

and withdraw from the Southern Caucasus are simply wrong, which, by the way, I take to be a sign that the Russians are now going to push forward and improve their relations with Azerbaijan. Why would they not? And essentially, they say that sooner or later the Armenians will understand their mistake and perhaps at that point, this...

damage that has been done to the relationship can be repaired. Now, I think that the relationship is now on the brink of collapse. I can't imagine it will continue for very much longer. The relationship between Armenia and Russia, yeah. How exactly will that work, though, the collapse in the relationship? I presume that... You go to Armenia and there's a huge Russian presence, that's what I'm talking about. Yeah, absolutely. Well, what I think will happen is that Armenia will leave the collective security treaty organization and the Eurasian Union.

Even though it is absolutely, as the Russians have pointed out, membership of the Eurasian Economic Union has been vital for Armenia's economic health. But that's what's going to happen. Remember, it's a small country. So the West can paper over the cracks, at least for a long, well for a while, probably for a long time, by sending in financial aid. It won't cost the West a huge amount, but the economy will become increasingly distorted.

Economic growth will become unbalanced. It'll be a type of Dutch disease. I'm taking that from the economist, in which the country, instead of developing properly, through proper trade and economic leaks and that kind of thing, instead becomes on infusions of West. and aid. And the diaspora in the United States and in France will push the U.S. and France to inject to that much. Oh, absolutely. Absolutely. And it's important to say not everybody in the

diaspora in these two countries probably supports this process. But almost by definition, if you're talking about the United States and France, the people who will be the most well-known and prominent in those two countries in the Armenian diaspora in France and the United States will be people who are very close to the politics who support

the political positions of the United States and France. You don't rise to the top in a diaspora as a leader of a diaspora in these two countries unless you are seen as being loyal to these countries unsurprisingly. So the official agency

if you like. Let's call it like that. The institutions of the diaspora, the Armenian diaspora, in the United States and France, they will be working to support the convergence of Armenia into the Euro-Atlantic system. I mean, they played a big role in bringing this about. and of course what they're doing, probably without realizing it, in fact, definitely without realizing it, is undermining Armenia's position in the Caucasus.

And Azerbaijan will press forward in their claims as well. Absolutely. That's going to be the disaster there, yeah. Absolutely, and of course, and I mean, I would not be surprised if before very long, we see Azerbaijan applying to join the Shanghai Cooperation Agreement and the BRICS, and who knows, even maybe the Eurasian Economic Union. And perhaps one day, who knows the collective security treaty organization, though I suspect the Russians will be a bit wary about that

because even after all this has happened, they will not want to support Azerbaijan in its territorial claims in Armenia. And the Russians will do what they always do in these scenarios. They will watch and wait, knowing that sooner or not. later this whole thing will come tumbling down and then at that point they will step in and sweep up all the pieces and turkey comes out a winner in all of this absolutely yeah probably enough yeah yeah absolutely played his hands very well in this in this area he played it extremely well but i mean to a great extent because i mean he's not up against Putin this has

become unfortunate very clear now he's not been up against Putin he's been up against Putin he's been up against Parasinian. And Parasinian is no match for Erdogan. And he's, anyway, he's made his own agenda now absolutely clear, crystal clear. Okay, let's leave it there. Oh, real quick, before we end the video, since we're talking about Erdogan, Menendez scandal. Yeah. The Menendez scandal.

Erdogan is saying F-16s, now that we got Menendez out of the way, or we're about to get Menendez out of the way, let's wrap up the the F-16 fighter jet deal that has been in limbo for a while now. My thinking on this is that's the reason. I mean, well, Menendez has had a lot of problems with allegations with corruption. It's been it's been dogging him for many, many years. But they've remained allegations, to be fair. I think the real reason behind all of this is,

is because Menendez was the main guy, the main guy that was putting up a lot of resistance for the F-16 deal in Turkey. Everyone has now come out and said this. He's come out and said as much. I absolutely agree. I think you're completely right. I mean, remember, I mean, Menendez has not only had to survive and, you know, rush off allegations of this kind in the past, but he's also been prosecuted before.

And he's survived, not because he was, you know, fully. vindicated because the jury split. So, I mean, it was in that particular case. So, you know, he's been around, these allegations, everybody's known about this apparently for a very, very long time. It didn't stop him becoming chair at the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, putting him in poll position. And, of course, he wasn't going to leave the scene,

because, to say gently, if he ceased to be chair of the Senate foreign, Relations Committee, well, he's leverage in places like Egypt and such places would have reduced quite a lot. So he wasn't stepping aside. He wasn't going to step aside for the F-16s, because again, wouldn't have been in his interests, maybe. I'm just saying. So how do you get this problem resolved? Well, you know, you. you get your friends in the Justice Department to bring a case. And in Menendez's case, in Menendez's case, it's not difficult to do that.

So he's no longer chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Commission. He's still in the Senate. Perhaps he will continue to be. Who knows? I'm not predicting any outcome to his trial, but more likely than not, Erdogan will get his F-16s. And he'll vote a yes for Sweden. Exactly. Everyone's happy. Everyone's happy, except Menendez.

Well, you know, don't count him out entirely. I'm making a hung jury before. Who's to say that won't we want again? All right. We'll leave it today at the durand.com. We are on Odyssey, bitch, shoot, telegram, rumble, rock fin, and X. And go to the Duran shop. Use the code.

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