The Duran Podcast - Leading Armenia down the primrose path

Episode Date: September 18, 2023

Leading Armenia down the primrose path

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the growing tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan. And, you know, you did a locals live stream. You do locals, live streams, exclusive live streams, every Wednesday, the durand.com. So you can find that on locals. But in that live stream, someone asked you a question about Armenia and Azerbaijan. This was about a week, maybe two weeks ago even. And you said that your hunch on what's going on between Armenia and Azerbaijan is that Paschianian and the Armenian elite, they've always wanted to get rid of the geopolitical football, the headache. The geopolitical headache that is for them, in their view, is Nagorno-Karabakh. This is how they see it. and if they can remove this geopolitical obstacle, then for this political elite,

they can move Armenia into the European Union and eventually into NATO and out of the Russian orbit. Unfortunately, that's a terrible move because Russia is the only country that is protecting Armenia at this moment in time. But that was your hunch on things. I think that's correct. I think that's exactly what's going on. And Armenia in kind of the same way as Ukraine. I'm not saying it's the exact same way, but there are similarities.

Armenia is being led down, down what did Professor Merchheimer say, down the Primrose. What was his statement? The Primrose path? It was the primrose path. That's what it seems like with Armenia. Pashinyan is leading them down.

Yeah. that terrible path that Ukraine was led down. And, you know, when I was in Yerevan, this is anecdotal, and I've been to Yerevan now twice, I failed to meet anybody, and I talked to quite a lot of people. I failed to meet anyone that had anything even remotely positive to say about Pachinian, even remotely positive to say about him and his government,

which I found to be very interesting, given the fact that I think he's been elected twice. Yes. As prime minister. So anyway, your thoughts? That's exactly what... I mean, I think this is exactly what is happening. I think this has been the agenda with Poshinian all along.

And I think, moreover, the Russians know it, which is why they've never trusted him. And I think one of the things that he's trying to do is not only is he trying to unload on Nagorno-Karabakh, so that he can bring Armenia in... to the NATO EU camp but he also wants to do it in a way

that he can blame the Russians that they've somehow in some way caused it and this is what all his moves recently have been all about I suspect actually going back to that war

that took place back in 2020 I think it was between Armenia and Azerbaijan that was partly what was going on then as well. I mean, looking back at that war, it was an odd, strange war because he didn't really seem to be doing it all that he could have done, at least so it seemed to me, in order to repel Azerbaijan and forge relations with the Russians.

But instead, anyway, he always has tried to find some way of getting rid of this problem. Obnagornu Karabakh, he's recently announced that Armenian, his only interest is in its own territory, which seemed to me to be cutting off Nagorno-Karabakh, but he also said straightforwardly that, you know, if we're losing Nakorno-Karabakh, it's because the Russians won't defend it. Why is removing Nakorno-Karabakh from Armenia so important for Pasinian in order for him to enter the European Union or NATO? Why is this such a priority for him?

Well, it's very straightforward. You can't enter NATO or the EU unless the problem of Nagorno-Karabakh is somehow wished away or taken off the board. Because NATO will not include a country like Armenia if there's a serious risk that Armenia could find itself in conflict with Azerbaijan. Bear in mind that one of the countries that is a member of NATO, which would have had, would have, a veto over Armenian membership of NATO is Turkey, and Turkey is, of course, Azerbaijan's ally. But beyond that, NATO does not want to find itself in a war with Azerbaijan at all. So they would never agree, nor with the EU. So he has to ditch what he sees as this problem,

which is Nagorno-Karabakh. and then of course what he's always I think privately wanted to do take Armenia out of the Russian system the Eurasian system and integrated fully with the EU and with NATO he's going to destroy Armenia

well absolutely because it was what he's destroy Armenia yeah yeah what he's actually of course in reality doing is something completely different to what I think he thinks which is that he is causing alarm amongst all of the countries in the region. I mean, Azerbaijan does not want to see Armenia in NATO.

We are seeing at the moment a further build-up of our Azerbaijani troops on Armenia's border. So, I mean, they don't want to see it happening. Nor, I suspect, ultimately, does Turkey, Turkey doesn't want to see another pro-Western ally on its northern border, given that Erdogan has difficult relations with the US to start with. Iran, with which, of course, Armenia has good relations,

has already warned Armenia not to even think about this. And they're very alarmed about these exercises, military exercises, that Armenia is now undertaking with the Russians. And, of course, the Russians are furious. With the United States. Sorry, with the United States. I meant so with exercises with the United States. And of course, the Russians are absolutely furious about this.

So Armenia is becoming isolated amongst its friends and is, of course, emboldening and strengthening its enemies. Because Azerbaijan, more likely that way to see opportunities to push against Armenia and perhaps inclined to do those even faster. And as we have seen in the Southern Caucasus already, as Georgia learned to its cost. Ultimately, in this region, it is the Russians who are the power.

You can't, if you start aligning yourself with Russia's enemies, then of course you become very exposed and Georgia went through this wall in 2008, which ended badly for Georgia. And the present Georgian government now is trying, however careful, to restore relations with Russia.

What would you say to someone who would tell you that that Russia is the problem in Armenia should absolutely move out of Russia's sphere of influence and move towards the West and the EU? In other words, what would you say to someone who said, you know, it is Russia that's the fault for Nakorn Nakabakh and for Azerbaijan. expanding and for all the troubles that Armenia has. Well, I would say two things. First of all, look at the map. Just look at the map where Armenia is located and ask yourself which country ultimately

is the country that, given Armenia's very difficult neighborhood, has always, at the end of the day, provided the backstop, which has enabled Armenia to survive through a very difficult 18th, 19th, 20th and probably 21st century is Russia. That's the first thing I would say. The second is, ask yourself when relations between Armenia and Russia began to go sour. They began to go sour when Pachinian became leader of Armenia. Up to that point, the Russians had been very strongly backing Armenia. and they'd also been strongly backing Armenia,

quietly over Nagorno-Karabakh. They were telling the Armenians, well, look, you know, you might not be wise in trying to cling on to all that you have. Perhaps you ought to negotiate. But there was never any doubt at that time that the Russians were there and that they would provide Armenia with this backstop.

Then Prasinian came, and he began to talk about realigning Armenia changing Armenia's alignments. The Russians were very suspicious of him, I think rightly so. And well, we see that it's since then that the relationship has soured and we see the price Armenia has already paid.

Nagorno-Karabakh is being lost. I wonder how much of this has to do with the fact that Armenia now is in a way is acting as a, I guess, as a financial outpost for a lot of Russians. I mean, you go there and you notice there's a very big large Russian presence, a lot of Russian businesses, a lot of banks with Russian accounts, because given all the sanctions now against Russia, Armenia is a natural place for Russians to travel to and to set up a presence in, to do business, to move money, to,

to open up bank accounts, which can then help them do business and move money to the West. So, I mean, I wonder how much of this has to do with the West also figuring out that if we can get Armenia into our orbit, then we can start to shut down the Russian business that has sprung up in Armenia because of the sanctions. Yeah, I think that's, I think undoubtedly that plays a big role. And of that there is no question at all. But can I also say, of course, that I think that this desire on the part of some people in Washington to move into the Southern Caucasus has been there for a very long time. I mean, it's, I mean, I didn't think this at the time. But when Pashinian came to power, it was, there were a lot of people were saying that he was supported by the usual NGO work.

and increasingly looks as if that was the case and if that was the case then that also tells us there were people in Washington who were looking already for ways to try to push Armenia away from the Russians. Very bad for Armenia ultimately. I mean, you know, Russia will continue

its positions in the Caucasus remain overwhelmingly strong. Armenians, however, are not. And as people from small countries, we know that you need to choose your friends carefully. All right, we will see how this develops. The durand.locals.com. We are on OdysseyBitchute, Telegram, Rumble, and X,

and go to the Durant shop. 10% off, use the code. Good day. Take care.