The Duran Podcast - Lebanon ceasefire. Aleppo, Syria conflict

Episode Date: November 29, 2024

Lebanon ceasefire. Aleppo, Syria conflict

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the ceasefire in Lebanon, and let's talk about the escalation in Syria. That looks like we have more military activity, or at least an uptick in military activity in Syria. We also have Assad meeting with Putin as well. Yeah. So all of this is connected. Yeah.

Let's, I guess the best place to start is with the ceasefire that has happened between Israel and Hezbollah. And do you think this is going to hold? The Biden White House claims that this is a ceasefire that will lead to, after 60 days, will lead to a permanent end of the fighting between Hezbollah and Israel. But I think most rational, sane people doubt that this is going to be the case. What are your thoughts? I agree with the rational people.

I think that this is, of course. One can see the logic of this ceasefire. I mean, Hezbollah has been very badly battered over the last couple of weeks. I mean, it's long-standing leader, Hassan Nasrallah, has been killed by the Israelis. His successor, Asafiadin, was killed as well. They've now got another leader who's obviously finding his feet and trying to sort out the leadership position within Hezbollah. Beirut itself has been very badly bombed. They've suffered significant losses and they've also discovered that their internal security systems have failed and that they've been heavily infiltrated in some form or other by the Israelis who as a result have been able to collect a great deal of intelligence information about.

them. So from Hezbollah's point of view, a pause actually is a way of sorting out their internal problems. I've said that they have problems, but looking at this now from the Israeli side, I suspect that the Israelis also discovered, somewhat to their surprise, that despite all of this damage that Hezbollah has suffered, It remains a viable and strong force. I did think when Nasrallah was killed that, you know, the big test of Hezbollah would be then. Would it hold together as an organization? It did.

Its fighters remain disciplined and continue to resist the Israelis. There are lots of claims about levels of casualties and all of that kind of thing. And I'm not going to spend time trying to ask. analyze that. The point was, Hezbollah did not fold. It held on to its positions in southern Lebanon successfully. It continued to resist successfully. So the Israelis found that they were not able to roll up Hezbollah, as perhaps they might have hoped. So they have been facing military strains as well. The Israeli army is based on reservists, and many of them apparently are very tired. There's been frustrations and concerns on the part of many Israeli military commanders,

that the Israeli defense forces are overextended and overstretched, so they need a pause as well. So there is military logic on both sides, forget for having a pause in the war. But it is essential to understand that neither side has achieved its stability. objectives and neither side, neither side, and both sides have had to make concessions to the other. So when this all started, some Israelis were giving the impression that their campaign was to destroy Hezbollah or at the very least to establish a buffer zone in South Lebanon. Well, that clearly has not happened. So the Israelis have had to accept that they're not going to establish a buffer zone in south Lebanon. They're pulling their troops apparently

out, or at least the theory is that they're going to pull their troops out of southern Lebanon. Whilst Hezbollah, for its part, said that it would go on launching missiles into northern Israel until a ceasefire in Gaza was agreed. No ceasefire in Gaza was agreed. But looking at this ceasefire agreement, which, by the way, is technically not between Israel and Hezbollah, but between Israel and Lebanon. Just saying. Anyway, looking at this agreement, it looks as if Hezbollah, for the moment, is not going to launch more rocket or missile strikes into northern Israel,

despite the fact that there has been no ceasefire in Gaza. So each side has had to make concessions, and both sides have failed to achieve their major. their stated objectives, but each side has demonstrated its capability to the other. Let's talk about Syria now because this is not a coincidence that as we have the ceasefire come into effect in Lebanon, we have an escalation in Syria, or at least what appears to be an escalation. What are your thoughts there? What's going on in Syria? I have no doubt that the two events are connected.

The operation in Lebanon, the Israeli operation in Lebanon has turned out to be much more difficult and far more prolonged than I think the Israelis anticipated. So what do you do in this situation? Hesbollah depends on support from Iran. Iran supplies Hezbollah through Syria. Syria is the indispensable ally of both. Hezbollah played a big role in preserving the government of Syria during the Syrian Civil War. So you increased pressure on Syria in order to put pressure on Hezbollah. So that is why you've had this offensive in northern Syria close to Aleppo. My understanding is that that offensive has now been stopped, that the Syrian army has been able to move, and that the...

Russian and Syrian Air Force have been active. And, of course, the fighters, the Islamist fighters, the jihadi fighters, no longer get the support from Turkey that they previously did. So probably this won't be sustainable for very long. But clearly, I have no doubt about this, some of the backers of the Israelis and the CIA and all of those people who have longstanding connections with some of these insurgent groups, in Israel, in Syria rather, activated them in order to try to put pressure on the Syrians. H-KS these guys, right now? Exactly. And to get Hezbollah perhaps to divert some of its fighters from the Lebanon War to Syria itself.

The ceasefire that we have just seen has overtaken that strategy. And it almost certainly means that he's going to fail. this offensive is going to run out of steam and will fail. What does it tell you that Turkey was not as involved this time around? Are you sure about it? I mean, is that... Yeah, I, well, I'm reasonably sure about that. And I get the sense that the Arab states adults are keen on supporting this insurgency either.

Like Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia, exactly. So we're not going to see a return to the kind of tremendous conflict that we saw in Syria between 2011 and 2050. So it's not going to be a repeat of that. This is an attempt to restart something in order to put pressure on the Syrians and indirectly on Hezbollah and also on Iran. But as I said, it started too late. The cease file that has been negotiated would have been negotiated without reference to these events in Syria. Going back to the ceasefire at the Biden White House,

has achieved. At least that's how they're framing it. 60 days. Once again comes with a couple of months into Biden's term as president in about 60 days, less than 60 days. Biden exits. Trump will inherit the mess that is the Middle East. Coincidence, the timing of all of this, the fact that it will not hold, is that something that the Biden White House fully understands and probably doesn't really care about? Because they could say, well, let Trump deal with the renewed conflict. Absolutely. Of course, this is, I mean, they can go away and say that they've achieved a ceasebar in Lebanon. And if the conflict resumes, it's not their fault. It's Trump's. He is the aggressor. Now, the most interesting thing about the ceasefire, the most difficult thing to understand about it, is why Netanyahu agreed to it, because he has consistently rejected ceasefires up to now.

And as I said, this particular ceasefire fell well short of some of the objectives that at least his supporters held. I don't know what Netanyaki himself has said about this. But, I mean, Hezbollah clearly has not been destroyed. Nobody seriously expects that he's going to withdraw its forces north of the Littani. I mean, that this is in the ceasefire, but it was also there in the previous ceasefire negotiated in 2006. Nobody really believes that's going to happen. So why did he agree to that? No buffer zone, none of those things.

So, and there are many. many, many people in Israel who are his supporters, who are furious with him. Ben Gvir, one of his ministers, has denounced this. The people who live in northern Israel are furious about this. He's the former prime minister, Nafali Bennett, is criticizing him. There's been criticism of him in the Israeli media. There's even, you know, a... opinion polls in Israel that show people very angry and upset about the ceasefire.

I want to stress Netanyahu's support base. So why did he agree to it? Well, I'm going to make a guess, which is that he is looking to walk forward to Donald Trump. And one of the justifications he gave for his agreement to the ceasefire is that it will now, The focus from this point onwards will be Iran. And I think that probably he's been given assurances by the Trump people that the focus will indeed be on Iran. Trump does not want to get drawn into a prolonged conflict in places like Lebanon and

elsewhere. We did a program about this a couple of days ago, about two weeks ago. in fact, about how the Trump plan seems to be to return to maximum pressure against Iran. So I wonder whether Trump or his people have told Netanyahu, look, we want an end to the fighting. But that doesn't mean we're holding off on Iran. On the contrary, we're going to try and suffocate the Iranians like you've never seen. So if you want to stay on good terms with us, you'll bring this fighting in Lebanon to a stop because that's unpredictable and dangerous and we don't want to get drawn into something we might feel obliged to ourselves become involved in. But don't worry because we will be with you in trying to choke Iran.

So I think that may be what I think I think that may be what explains this all because it is a bit surprising and not really very clearly explained why Netanyahu decided to go along with this. I mean, there's no doubt that the Israeli army wants it, but Netanyahu has never let himself up to this time be too concerned about that. but what the Trump people think in Washington, I think that concerns him a lot. Yeah, if you go by Trump's picks, his foreign policy picks, then definitely the target is Iran. Exactly. Yeah.

All right, all right. We will end the video there. At the durand.com. We are on Rumble odyssey, bitchy, telegram, rock, Finn, and X, go to the Duran shop, pick up some merch. You will find a link to Duran Shop in the description box down below. Take care.