The Duran Podcast - Liberating EUROPE from cheap, reliable Russian gas

Episode Date: January 28, 2026

Liberating EUROPE from cheap, reliable Russian gas

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the EU pushing through the cutting off of Russian gas, LNG and pipeline gas. The pipeline gas is for 2026. That's going to be completely phased out. And I believe you're only talking about Nord Stream. I believe that's the only gas pipeline that enters the EU. I'm trying to think if there's any other gas pipeline. Definitely not Nord Stream, Turkstream, I believe, is the only one.

Turks, the Turks, the Turks, it's the Turks. Yeah, I think it's only Turkstream. The LNG, the LNG is going to be phased out by 2007. Russian pipeline gas and Russian LNG. And for the leaders in Brussels, they claim that this is liberating Europe. Because in the reality of Brussels of the EU, when you have two or three suppliers, well, that means that you are dependent and locked in. When you have one supplier, that means that you're independent and free.

And that one supplier is pretty much the United States. I mean, you have a little Qatar, I believe a little Algeria as well, if I'm not mistaken, with Spain and Portugal. But effectively, it's the United States that will be the main supplier to the European Union. And in my reality, that means that you are 100% dependent on the United States for energy. And this follows up on everything that happened with Greenland.

It looks like the EU learned nothing from Greenland. It was all theater, no doubt about it. whole EU, US row, in my opinion, was just all theatrics. Most of it was theatrics. And, and, and yeah, I think that's, that's it. I mean, what can you say? The European Union is, is, is now dependent, fully dependent on very expensive US, LNG, the prices of LNGG are going up as well. I wonder, I wonder if there's any, any leaders invested in the, in the stocks. of those LNG companies anyway. Maybe someone should look that up. Your thoughts, Alexander. The last is a very, very good question. Something like 200% the stocks have risen. 240%

like they've really shot up US LNG company stocks. Anyway, I mean, we've discussed many times that this whole situation with the EU and Russia has an obsessive. excessive quality. And I think this decision basically shows it. So at this moment in time, EU gas reserves are running quite low. And I mean, it's not catastrophic. We're not going to see the pipes close, you know, sorry, the lights close or the heating clothes across Europe. But it's quite likely that over the next few weeks, months, we're going to see prices, gas prices rise again. We also have had, as you touched on with Greenland, a major row with the United States. There was a brief moment where people were talking about the end of NATO, all very

overstated. We said over the course of that row that the Europeans would never allow NATO to collapse. They would do whatever they could to appease Trump, whatever they could to appease the United States. And, well, for them, Project Ukraine, the hostility to Russia continues to be the obsessive, overriding priority. And here we see it in the middle of a gas shortage, not a catastrophic gas shortage, but a gas shortage in the middle of accelerating deindustrialization in Germany, which is the EU's call, and deindustrialization, which is directly connected to higher energy costs, they have nonetheless decided that they are going to limit themselves. They're going to exclude themselves further from Russian gas, Russian pipeline gas, which flows to them

via Turk Stream, and which is cheaper than LNG, US LNG. They're going to exclude themselves from Russian LNG, which is cheaper than American LNG. They're going to increase still further their dependence on American LNG. Just a few days after a monstrous row, it may have been all theatre. It might have been all performance, but it was nonetheless a visible row. And we've always read the headlines. They're going to become even more dependent on the United States for LNG. And, of course, they're not even looking at the reality that studies that apparently have been done

suggests that gas production in the United States, natural gas production in the United States might have peaked, that it might start to fall soon, that. that it has perhaps roughly 13 years I've seen to go before imports have to be restricted or dialed down. This makes absolutely no sense as an industrial decision at all. And on top of all of this, in order to get this decision, which, well, We've just discussed what it is. In order to get past Hungary and its veto and Slovakia and its veto, they said this isn't actually sanctions.

This isn't part of sanctions policy. It is part of trade policy, which in effect means that, which has means that they're able to do it, or so they say, through a majority vote on the EU Council, rather than. gaining unanimity. Now, bear in mind that Hungary and Slovakia, Hungary specifically in the past, supported energy sanctions against Russia. A huge mistake, as we now can see, but they supported it precisely on the basis that they would nonetheless continue to be able to import gas from Russia. they obtained those exemptions. We've now seen how worthless those exemptions actually were

because the European Union simply overrides both its prior obligations to the Hungarians and the procedures within the European Council by repackaging one thing, a sanctions policy and calling it something else. It reminded me very much of the legal trickery they used last year when in order to get the freeze of the Russian assets made indefinite, they invoke their emergency powers. I mean, they're doing this increasingly. And again, it demonstrates the obsessive character of their policies. And the extent to which those policies are becoming ever more self-destructive. Yeah, Hungary was tricked.

Yeah. They were tricked. Orban should have known better, to be quite honest. He's a very experienced politician and he should have known better. And not only was Hungary tricked, but now they're, well, they run the risk of having the gas cut off. Yeah. Which would mean that things are going to become very hard for Hungarian citizens. Yes.

And Orban is going through an election cycle with the European Union doing everything. that they need to do in order to regime change him, to meddle in those elections and remove him. Yes. So, yeah, you know, Orban, he fell into the trap. He should have never approved the sanctions against Russia. Just like EU member states should have never approved the cutting off of the airspace. They should have never approved the cutting off of the media. We said it right away that this is a huge mistake.

They're giving too much power to the center. Yes. But they went along with it. All of them went along with it. And over time, we've seen that the center has decided to consolidate even more power with whatever means they can do it. Trickery, coercion threats, we've got tools, warnings, whatever they need to do. They're doing it. It's a ridiculous industrial decision.

It makes zero sense. But as you've pointed out many times, the European Union is not about economics, not about finance, not about industry, not about their citizens. It's a geopolitical project. So it's a terrible industrial decision, but it's not meant to be an industrial decision. It's a geopolitical decision made by 27 vassal states of the United States. Real quick, Alexander, from the Kobesi letter on X, U.S. natural gas prices. This is today, by the way. U.S. natural gas prices extend gains to plus 40 percent on the day, now on track for one of

largest daily gains in history. Natural gas prices are now up 240% since January 16th. That's like gas prices rising from $3 a gallon to $7.20 a gallon in five trading days. Commodities are on fire. Your thoughts, Alexander? Well, there you go. I mean, it's exactly because, of course, what they're doing is they're creating artificial shortages. A few people in the United States are going to do very well from this. But ultimately, this is, by the way, This isn't even a good decision, in my opinion, for the United States long term. Or even, by the way, for the natural gas industry, it's going to be locked in as well. It's going to find itself over-dependent on the European market, too.

But anyway, let's put aside the economics of this and focus on the ideology and the geopolitics, because as you absolutely rightly say, this is sacrificing the interests of European industry, of European consumers, of European residents to this single-minded fixation, obsession with project Ukraine, which is being used by the European Centre to accrete ever more power. This is what this is all about. They're going to tighten their control, even as everything else falls apart around the This is what they do. And, of course, the other thing is, I was again listening to Friedrichson, the Danish prime minister

talking again about, you know, the wisdom and justice and brilliance of superlative quality of this decision. This is just after she's faced this confrontation with the United States. The thing about all of these people in Europe is that hostility to Russia, this extreme hostility to Russia to talk about war with Russia. It's their comfort zone. They are happiest talking about this and living inside it. It's what they want to talk about. They don't really want to talk about anything, other things. They don't want to talk about economics, about industrial policy, about issues they might have with the United States. They want to be

what the Belgian Prime Minister said, happy vassals. I mean, that's where they feel most content. Being free, going out into the world, making decisions, taking responsibility, that isn't what they want to do. Yeah. They don't. They don't talk about anything else other than Project Ukraine. I mean, the past week, I would say the past week, we've seen the European Union, Ursula, do certain things not connected to Project Ukraine.

That's one week out of three, four years. I'm speaking about the Mercosur deal, which is not going to be good for European farmers. It's going to demolish European farmers. And everyone knows it. Everyone sees it coming, but they rammed it through. Black Rock Mertz demanded it. Ursula demanded it. It's been many, many decades of the making. It's going to demolish the European farmers. Yes. Anyway, they got it. They were celebrating. And the other thing is the big trade deal, the mother of all trades deal that Ursula calls it, which is the EU and India. So, I mean, at least the European Union with this trade deal with India will be able to get India.

oil. And that way they're completely moving away from the Russian oil. So at least she secured the Indian oil, which means that Europe will not be contaminated with the terrible, awful Russian oil. Correct. Of course. I'm joking. You're absolutely right. But that's the point, isn't it? Yeah. Yeah. What do you think of these trade deals and what I just said? Yeah. The Mercosur has been around, they've been talking about it for years. I mean, if it goes back, I think, to well before we started, you know, the Durand together. Decades, decades, yeah. Decades and decades.

Again, as you absolutely rightly say, it's lopsidedly in favor of, you know, the new trade partners in Latin America and all of the rest. Its origins were from the great heyday of the EU when they were thinking that they might indeed become the great economic superpower to rival China and the United States. Remember those days? So this is where it all begins. When the EU starts on something like this, it acquires its own irresistible bureaucratic momentum. And of course, from the perspective of the European Commission, it creates more trade flows, which they hope they can now regulate. And that's what they're all about.

I mean, it's all about then doing regulation as well. The Indian free trade deal is not really that difference, much the same. But, because it does have an interesting twist to it because the Americans have at various times been telling the Europeans, well, look, we're going to, we're happy to impose massive tariffs on India and China if they continue to import Russian oil, but we want you to do the same. Having now just done this free trade deal with India, I think the Europeans probably are not in a position to do that now. So they cannot satisfy those sort of demands from the United States. The trade deal with India has been again in the works for years. And again,

it'll be, it'll work entirely to India's advantage because the Indians want to increase their exports. India is one of those countries that runs deficits. The Indian market is frankly not particularly open to further penetration by European businesses. They've never been very successful there. So what will now happen is that the Indians are going to be able to export various goods of theirs to Europe. And as we will soon see, I'm sure, that the trade with India will go from a deficit to surplus. As I said, this isn't in the end going to please Donald Trump. What happens if Trump starts putting restrictions on the EU with all of these trade deals? I mean, what does the EU do then?

Talk about Ukraine and the threat from Russia. I mean, what else do they ever do? I mean, we've now had Mark Luter, the NATO Secretary General. You can remember, just a few years ago, he was the prime minister of the Netherlands and very, very much a central figure within the EU system. Anyway, he's again saying, you know, we need the United States, we need them here to defend us, we can't possibly go. It's a loan.

All true, by the way, absolutely. All absolutely true. But what is he saying in the end other than that we can only be happy vassals? That's the best outcome that any of us or all of us have. I mean, what they should do if they ever were to fool, seriously out with the Americans. Or if the Americans were to start demanding things, well, of course, the Americans have already demanded things and they've already given them things, which threaten European sovereignty and economic self-interest. What they ought to do

is do what Bismarck said, play the chess game with all 64 squares of the chess board. In other words, talk to the Russians, but of course they will never do. that. Well, they can't do that now. I mean, the minute your energy, which is the core foundation of any economy, is dependent solely on one provider. I mean, that's it. You're stuffed. Yeah. Yes. I mean, everything else doesn't matter. Whatever, whatever Ursula is saying about we're going to sell this and that India and the Indian market's going to be open for us. I think that's all nonsense. Europe is European. Industries just being hammered, it's being smashed.

What are they going to give to India? What can they provide to India that India can't get either domestically or anywhere else? Well, precisely. And India has all kinds of stuff that they're going to flood the European markets. And India has the energy, courtesy of Russia and the sanctions placed on Russia. So, I mean, none of this makes any sense. No. No.

I mean, you know, we had in Germany, you know, a couple of years, about 10 years ago, Germany was doing really well, I remember, in solar panels and batteries and all of that. Solar panels, certainly. I don't know about batteries. Well, they've already lost all of that market. And that industry is basically going and gone. It won't come back. So, I mean, they're going to become more and more an export appendage of the United States.

That is their short term into economic future, longer term. Well, heaven's knows what's going to happen. But anyway, we have to deal with the short term now. Final question. What does Russia think about all this? What do you think Russia is saying about the cutting off of making it official, the cutting off of the gas? What do you think Russia is saying about the agreement with a good friend and ally,

your BRIC's partner, India, with the EU? I think on the last day, they're positively pleased. As I said, it makes it much more. I mean, it makes it, I would have thought, legally impossible now for the EU to impose tariffs on India because India trades with Russia. So from a Russian point of view, it actually strengthens the position. The Reserve Bank of India, India's central bank, is now apparently pushing hard to link up all the bricks, digital currencies together.

So, I mean, that is the really important thing from a Russian point of view. and India and Russia are going forward with aerospace cooperation. The Russians are going to be factories there. I mean, they're far from worried about this. As I said, on balance, they're pleased. What is good for India is going to be good for Russia. It's going to mean that India has more half-currency, more options. That means they can buy Russian oil.

They don't need to worry about tariffs in the United States because they have this market in the EU. you now. So, I mean, it's, from their point of view, this is good. Now, as to what they think about what the EU has done, they're going to shrug their shoulders. I mean, they know these people, you know, they know how obsessive these people are. They know the extent of their hostility. They've successfully managed to redirect their oil and gas exports. To the extent that this is going to lift prices for energy products, which it will, not just short term, but long term as well, because Russia is a big energy exporter. That's good for them. One more question. Do you think Hungary and Slovakia have a chance to win in court?

to block the cutting off of the Russian gas? Well, they should do. I mean, illegally, they have an extremely strong case. I mean, this is sanctions dressed up by another name. And as you rightly said, they were tricked. I mean, if people support sanctions because they're assured of one thing, then simply changing the rules halfway ought to be something that the European Court of Justice or to strike down, I don't think it will. I think it is as much of a politicized

institution as every other institution within the EU now. So I don't think they're going to win. If I have to talk about Hungary, this of course assumes that Alban wins the election this year, which is far from certain. But if Orban wins the election this year, if this thing sticks, if he loses the case in the European Court of Justice. I think the moment has now come when he should start seriously thinking whether Hungary can remain in the EU. Yeah. I mean, I really do.

I mean, Hungary needs cheap energy. When we were in Hungary, they were telling us, look at the map. Look at how energy reaches us, where it reaches us from. We have no choice. if they really think that, then really they have no choice but to leave the EU. Well, then comes my follow-up question. What if Orban loses and you get to the EU guy, Magyat, the very pro-globalist guy, what does he do?

I mean, he's going to go along with the cutting off of energy to Hungary. So he's basically doing what? He's leading a country to economic collapse and he's going to be okay with it. I mean, it's a no-win situation if they lose the case for Hungary. At least, Urbond, can lead the country out of the EU. Yes. But the Magyar guy's not. He's going to keep the country locked in the EU.

And that means essentially no energy or very, very expensive gas into Hungary. Yes. But when has any EU leader committed to the EU push back against EU decisions? because they are bad for his country. That's my point. He's not going to push back, Magy. No, he's not. So what happens to Hungary?

Well, what indeed does happen to the same processes of de-industrialization that we've seen everywhere else in Europe? I mean, the other thing was, and it was discussed when we were in Hungary, and some people who are admirers of Alban were concerned about it, that Orban has heavily invested in Chinese motor vehicle imports into the EU system. He's helped the Chinese build lots of factories, lots of facilities there on the assumption that Hungary can be the launch pad for Chinese imports of electric vehicles. But the EU is moving increasingly towards trying to block those.

So there is no rational element to any of these EU decisions. If Orban stays, he has to finally wrestle with this reality that Hungary's position in the EU is becoming untenable. If Maga becomes prime minister, de-industrialisation inevitably is going to come. And the Hungary that we briefly saw last year will gradually fade away and it will become part of the same mess that we see everywhere else in the EU. If Orban is re-elected, that he has to make a very, very difficult decision. For him, I think personally, quitting the EU would be immensely difficult. People don't realize this about Orban, but he's a Europeanist to his fingertips. He was a political dissident against the Soviet Union.

He was somebody who wanted very much Hungary to rejoin Europe, as they said. He's got to understand. The point has come for him to understand in that case that the Europe that he thought he was rejoining and Hungary was rejoining no longer exists. That is, I suspect, psychologically for someone deeply steeped in European culture. He's a compulsive reader. He reads European literature. He's all into this sort of thing.

That's going to be a very, very difficult thing for him to do. Yeah, good point. All right, we will end the video there, the durand.com. We are an X rumble and telegram. Also go to the Duran Shop, pick up some merch, 26% off everything in the Duran Shop. The link is in the description box down below and definitely subscribe to our substack page. The link to substack is also in the description box down below. Take care.