The Duran Podcast - Logistics wins wars w/ Scott from Kalibrated

Episode Date: November 10, 2025

Logistics wins wars w/ Scott from Kalibrated

All right, Alexander, we are here with Scott from Calibrated, the excellent YouTube channel, Calibrated with Scott, who covers all things geopolitical as well as military. Scott, where can people follow your work, which we recommend highly? Well, of course, over at Calibrated on YouTube, it's Calibrated with a K, so pretty easy to remember that. And then over on Twitter, you can follow my Twitter handle, Aiden. I cover a lot of stuff over there. That's probably where I post the most amount of content and then over on my telegram, which is also calibrated. I think both channels complement each other really well. The X telegram complements the long form YouTube very well.

So I will have those as a link in the description box down below as well as a pinned comment. Alexander Scott, we got to talk about the military situation in Ukraine and how that affects the geopolitical situation. So Alexander Scott, let's jump right into it. We absolutely must. And there is no better person to discuss this with than Scott. Because Scott, I don't know how he manages, but he manages to keep abreast of all of these military moves. In what is actually, at least I find it, a very complicated war.

Now, I say that I've not got a military background in any way, as everybody knows. So I do depend heavily on people like Scott to explain. things to me and Scott does it consistently and outstandingly well. So I'm going to here express my immediate view, Scott, and you push back and Tommy whether you agree or not. But I think we are actually at an inflection point in the wall. We had this absolutely devastating missile strike across Ukraine, which took place several days ago, and which plunged, as far as I could see, all the big cities in Ukraine, in darkness. And there's been reports today in one of the Ukrainian newspapers, Ukrainska Pravda,

that it led to a furious round between Zelensky's officials and the Ukrainian energy company. With Zelensky furious with them that they were apparently not trying to minimize, if I could put it like this, the effect of the strike, the damage that it was doing. So we've had that enormous strike, which, by the way, here in London, has gone virtually unreported, which I find remarkable. And alongside that, we're getting a lot of things starting to happen on, well, maybe not starting to happen, but happening on the battle lines. And they're all coming together in various places.

And of course the place that everybody, and these most people who are interested in the war are talking about, is Pachrovsk. I had dinner with somebody the other day, and to my astonishment, they suddenly asked me, what is happening in Pachovsk? And this isn't somebody who really follows the war very closely. So even there it seems to be cutting through. But of course, it isn't only in Pachrosk that things are taking place. And we have two completely different. So let's start at Pachrowski. We have two completely different narratives.

Zelensky, Sirsky, everything is under control. It's untrue that the Ukrainians there are surrounded. The Russians are making no real progress. The intensity of the fighting has reduced. So that's one version of events. And then there's the other version, which we get mostly from the Russians. But I think it's fair to say other commentators who have been following the war. also tend to lean towards it, which is, yes, there is indeed an encircement in Pukovsk,

and that the situation there is deteriorating for the Ukrainians, probably on an hourly basis. Anyway, that's my sense of this, that, in fact, we are at an inflection point. So, firstly, what do you think about that? And secondly, let's get into the weeds and talk about Pukharovsk. Yes. So when we're talking about just the war in general right now, I don't think that I've ever experienced time throughout the last four years of this conflict, when the two information spaces, I would say the pro-Ukrainian and the pro-Russian, obviously you have neutral commentators, but they usually

fall on one side of that line or the other. I've never seen a wider disconnect in the information that is being pushed. Just when we're talking about the Battle of Pekrofsk, like you mentioned, there's the pro-Ukrainian information space that's saying everything is fine, there's no encirclement happening, and then you look at, you know, the pro-Russian and even most of the neutral commentators on the war. And they clearly show that the encirclement of Minharad, which is the sister city of Pekrosk, they're like one city that has grown into, are two cities that have grown into one, is in fact encircled. And this is corroborated by geolocations. This is also corroborated by Ukrainians in this area who are talking about the impossibility of getting

logistics into the city and so on and so forth. So I just wanted to comment on your earlier statement that this is a very confusing time in the war because it absolutely is. And for people that are just casually spectating, I fully understand how you would get very, very lost and with what's going on right now. Because you have one side, Zelensky posting on X, this today, I believe, saying that Putin is at an impasse. He can't progress anywhere on the battlefield. but then you look down in the Zaporozia neapathrosk region and the Russians just gained 60 square kilometers there yesterday. So they're obviously moving the line. There's obviously manpower issues on the Ukrainian side. There's a lot going right for the Russians on the battlefield. And the Ukrainians are

overall struggling to contain what the Russians are doing. Most specifically, we talk about manpower shortages, but manpower shortages is not the end of the world, especially in the war that we are observing in Ukraine. The real issue is when the manpower issues start to affect the drone operators. Drone operators are what keep the lines together, and a lot of those drone operators have been pulled from other sections of the front to Pukrovsk to try to de-block this encirclement and have been destroyed, I guess you would say, for lack of a better term, by certain groups like Rubicon, which is a Russian UAV unit who actively hunts Ukrainian UAV units. And what we're now seeing is massive gaps across the front line. I had just talked about

Zaporosia, where in eastern Zaporosia, the Russians are advancing incredibly fast, and they're out walking in the open, something we haven't seen for like the last three years of this war because of the constant threat of FPV drones. So that is a, I totally agree that the information coming out right now is incredibly confusing. It is contradictory and you have to really dive deep and try to understand what's going on. If you wouldn't mind Alex bringing up that map for me real quick, I would like to zoom us in on the region of Pukrovsk that we are talking about. So when we talk about Pekrofts, we are talking about this entire settlement here, this entire city. It is both Minharad and Pekrovsk.

Pekrovsk itself has been almost entirely captured, something like 95 to 100 percent at this point of Pekrofsk has been captured. And as we look in here, we can see that the only available logistics route for the Ukrainians is now in a very, very deep bottleneck. Most sources are saying that this is not a complete encirclement, but I think that there's kind of a misnomer when it comes to mappers that, they, you know, the fact that no logistics, no Ukrainians can get through this area, just because there might not be Russians sitting in a tree line right here does, does not necessarily mean that this isn't an encirclement. It absolutely is an encirclement. And the Ukrainians have been trying for weeks now to de-block it.

They've been trying to push the Russians back up on this northern salient. But this is just a catastrophe. This is, we have not seen anything like this in this conflict since the Battle of Mariupil. We saw a similar, smaller instance of this during the Kersk incursion back last year. But this is basically an unprecedented event that is now occurring in Ukraine. We've had multiple cities that have come close to full encirclement or full envelopment. But that had not happened yet. This would be the first city since Marupil in 2002, which has come under a full Russian encirclement.

So some of the estimates, some of the Russian estimates, that there are between two and three or four thousand troops in this area. I think it's much lower than that. I think the Ukrainians are operating at a much lower density across the entire front just due to their manpower issues. So I would say there's probably 300 to a thousand Ukrainian troops in the city of Minharad, which are surrounded. However, the quality and health of these troops is probably very, very poor, considering they have not been getting logistics. and there is no medevac. So if guys get injured in this area, they stay injured in this area and all they have is field medicine. Is there any solution that the Ukrainians have in this situation? I mean, is there any way that

they can reverse what we're looking at here? Because I have to say to me, that does look like an encircumet. I mean, I accept that there is this one little place where, as you said, that there is the funnel. But I am somebody who in an earlier life used to do an awful lot of walking. And all I can say is walking through an area like that in the autumn with people perhaps shooting at you and with drones flying overhead. I wouldn't advise it. Let me put it like that. The area we're talking about is also about a kilometer wide. So from either end, you're able to see anybody walking in or out with.

in Russian rifle range. And not just that, but there's the constant FPV drone threat. So can they do anything? I mean, is there anything the Ukrainians can do to change this? So there is a few things that the Ukrainians could do. First and foremost, I am fully under the impression that the Russians would let these men leave this encirclement if it came to some sort of agreement. I don't think the Russians are necessarily in the business of trapping Ukrainians in a city and slaughtering them. I have not seen that throughout the entirety of this war. Besides Mariupil, which was sort of a cascade event, Mariupil was just surrounded immediately. There was no

option for the Ukrainians to, you know, peacefully leave, drop their weapons, get out, whatever the case may be. However, the Ukrainian government, the Ukrainian propaganda machine cannot allow that to happen. That would be a massive humiliation. That would be a, it just, it's something that you can't really come back from if you're the Ukrainian government with all of the lies and the narratives that they've been pushing about the health of the Russian army and how the Russians are progressing and how Ukraine is doing. And, you know, Ukraine is supposed to be strong. Russia is supposed to be weak. And this would be a public display of Ukrainian weakness and Russian strength around a city, which is supposed to be

strategically important, right? So in terms of what they can do, that would probably be the easiest and simplest way to get these men out of this encirclement. However, you lose the city and you lose the narrative. What we have seen from the Ukrainians is very, very risky and highly unsuccessful special forces operations. There was a helicopter landing on the northern end of Pukrovskite here, where 11 to 15 GUR operatives, de-boarded a helicopter and then ran into these surrounding buildings right here, where they were immediately picked off by FBV drones. I don't think the guys got much more than 500 meters from the landing site

before they were taken out. So in terms of a military option for the AFU to de-block Pekrofts or to salvage the situation in the city, I don't see how that's possible, especially because it's not just Pukrovsk. Remember, during the Battle of Bokhmut, it was only the Battle of Bokhmut happening. During the Battle of Avdyevka, it was only the Battle of Avdyevka happening. If I zoom out here, you can see that this is a fire that the Ukrainians need to put out. This is a five-alarm fire in a high-story residential building that the Ukrainians need to put out right now.

But if we zoom out and come down here to the Zaporozio region, you can see a huge six-star square kilometer advanced by the Russians in the direction of Holiay-Ipolye in the Zapparozia region. And there are no Ukrainian defenses out here. So this is another fire that the Ukrainians are going to have to put out. We come up to Costa Nifka, where the Russians have now entered Costa Tenthenifka from the eastern side in direct frontal assaults, which clearly indicates how weak the Ukrainian manpower situation is that the Russians are able to not envelop the city and then eventually get in, but just directly push in. Not only that, we come up here.

Sversk is being pressured now. Le Mans, which was lost during the 2022 Ukrainian counteroffensive for the Russians, is now under threat by the Russians again. The Russians have re-entered Le Mans. And then if we come up here, we can see that the city of Kupyansk is also almost completely captured by the Russians now. And the Ukrainian bridgehead on this side of the Oskill is in major jeopardy. So that's if you're just counting the major fires that the Ukrainians need to put out,

they have four cities that are now in extreme jeopardy and there's just not enough manpower. And this is really what I've been talking about for years. I started my collapse series back in early 2024 or mid-20204 when Ugladad was falling, if you guys remember, which is crazy to think that that was not. not that long ago. And now we're looking at Ugladar being, you know, close to 100 kilometers in the rear of the Russian front line now. So no, there's no proper military solution to the situation around Praksk. You can't generate well-trained manpower immediately. You can't build armies on a whim. As we've seen throughout the course of this war, the Ukrainians have a,

difficult time maintaining the manpower that they have, let alone creating a surplus, which would then be used in some sort of de-blocking operation or counter-offensive to try to save the city. It just doesn't seem possible right now. Can you tell us about the strategic importance of Bakrosk? Because one of the interesting things that has happened for me is that I remember back in the autumn of 2024, lots of people were saying Bakrosk, strategically very important. Then they were saying it recently in the summer. The Russians haven't even been able to capture the strategically important city of Pachrosk.

Now Pachrosk looks about to fall. Suddenly it's not so strategically important after all. Tell us what the truth is, because again, this is confusing for many people. Perhaps you can explain to us whether or not it is in fact strategically important. And if this area, this area in purple that is under Ukrainian control, the Mernograd and Bakrovs fall under Russian control, what does that mean for the future direction of the war? Okay, so first and foremost, there has been a kind of balanced battle happening in this section of the front in terms of logistics, ease of supply, how the two armies get around. and when you look at it, you have Pekrovsk here and you have Donetsk here, right? And Donetsk was the major locality where the Russians began to push out into Marinka,

into all of these smaller villages pushing towards the city of Pekrovsk. Pekrovsk is the city that the Ukrainians used to defend multiple lines of defense up to Pekrovsk. So Pekrovsk is, or at least for the Ukrainians, was very strategically important. important. It still is, but as they begin to lose it, it kind of does lose its strategic significance for them, but it does not lose strategic significance for the Russians who are capturing it. So if we look behind Pukrovsk, this is the major issue, right? There is nothing back here. These towns that you see, the names of the towns, they're all agricultural farm villages. So they're on, you know, one acre, every house is on an acre of land, basically, or something of that

nature. They're not built up. The Russians will not be stopped by these towns like they were by the urban developments of the Donetsk region like Pukrovsk and Bakhmuts, Avdyevka, Kostatinivka. This area is much easier to defend because of the large, sprawling urban settlements. We do not have that in this part of Ukraine. In fact, all of this is just basically wide open agricultural land. It's why the Ukrainians have fought so hard to defend the east of the country. And when we're talking about Pekrovsk, Pekrovsk will become the launch point for the Russians, just like Darnetsk was, into this area. However, there are no Ukrainian lines here. There is no established Ukrainian defense here. So it will not be like pushing out of Darnetsk with the same Ukrainian defensive

capabilities with the same opponent across the way, very strong from you in the Ukrainian army. the Ukrainian army is looking incredibly weak and now they have to defend these wide open fields, which is going to be incredibly difficult. And there's really nothing until you reach Pavlachad, which is almost directly on the Nieppe River. So again, this is what everybody has been talking about in the pro-Russian sphere, at least since 2022. I mean, the defenses in the east are so important for the Ukrainian army right now because it takes so much less manpower to defend. and well-established fortified lines. The further and the further the Ukrainians get pushed back, the weaker and weaker their

position gets, and the weaker and weaker their army gets. So you have this, again, it's just this snowball and it's rolling downhill and it's gain in mass. And when we look at Pekrovsk itself, Pekrovsk is one of these very important localities in Ukraine because of its railway connection. It is a major railway hub, which a lot of Russian logistics runs on rail. So that is very, very important for the Russians. It's also on a strategic high ground in the region, as well as being connected by multiple highways. And this is something that maybe, you know, Westerners don't think about quite as much.

But in these eastern regions of Ukraine, the road access is very, very limited. And seasonal weather can make the fields incredibly difficult to move through. So road access is very important. And Prakowski is just a major interconnection of highways and railways. So it is just a logistics hub. And what we talk about regularly is after the Russians capture a city like this, there is always a flower that ends up blooming, right? It opens up and the Russians end up expanding out quickly.

I expect that after Pekrovsk falls, the Russians will very, very quickly be in Drupalpila because there's really no defensive line back here for. the Ukrainians to set up on, right? So this flower that is going to expand out from Prokrosk is going to be very large. And again, it's just another fire that the Ukrainians are going to have to put out in a much worse position than they were yesterday. And when we're talking about crossroad areas as well, these two villages in the south, Odehiv and Holiay-Polier, I also count Valika and Nova Silka, but that is now under Russian control, are also crossroad villages that are incredibly important due to their road connection, and the Russians are now beginning the

envelopment of the second crossroad village of Holié-Polier. Can I just say that, again, one area where I have been busy in life was logistics. I did do a lot of logistics at one time, and people greatly underestimate the importance of logistics. I think this is something that you never see media in the West ever talk about, which certainly, with respect to the United States surprises me, given that the one thing the Americans have always been very good at is logistics. They do understand the importance of moving things from one place to another and doing it fast and doing it smoothly. And in any war, obviously that must be a priority. Let's turn actually to the situation in Zaporosje. Now, again, I've done Russian and Soviet

history. Gwilyapolier is in fact a place with a very, very storied history in terms of Russia's history. It was a major centre in the civil war, the Russian Civil War that followed the Russian Revolution. For example, it is absolutely a place which a lot of Russians will know about. It's featured in their literature, for example. Can you explain to us what is going on here? What is happening in this area in Zaporosia region? Why it is important and what could happen to Gwilyapolia fairly soon? Okay. Yeah. So this is the area of the front that I am most interested in right now. I think that this is the area that should have the largest alarm bells ringing for the Ukrainian armed forces. And it seems to be completely ignored. I have no idea why other than, then it's bad news. That's the only reason I can see to not talk about this, but we hear a lot about Kupiansk, we hear a lot about Vovichansk, Krofsk, Konstantanifka. Maybe it's just because this is open

fields down here. I'm not 100% sure, but the situation is unraveling so rapidly in this area. The Ukrainians have basically no means of stabilization. This advance that we are seeing here is something that you would never see in this war in 2022, 2023. I mean, maybe at the very beginning of the war in 2022. But as soon as things stabilized, we have not seen anything like this since. This is a massive advance. Not only is it a massive advance for the Russians, but it is also a river crossing. They cross the Yanchur River here. And if you go to like a deep state map and look at the time progression in this area, in a month, this entire section of the front has just turned into a deluge for the Russian advance. And it's so,

vitally important for the reason of logistics, like you just said. If the Russians are able to make it into Pukovsk, Pukovsky, sorry, here, they will basically backline the logistics into this entire section of the front. If they are able to advance further north or up towards Mazzova or any of these further localities up across the Vovoc River, like we've seen crossed here, they will compromise the logistics behind all of these next defensive lines. There are some like lines here. There are some like lines here, but they're very weak and they have not been established very well for defense. So this is a disaster for the Ukrainian armed forces. This front is moving so fast that they are not able to set up new defensive lines.

The Russians are just moving through, moving through. And even if they did have time to set up new defensive lines, they don't have the manpower. They don't have guys to go sit in tractors and, you know, dig trenches, anti-tank tank ditches or anything around this area. because they're just going to get hit by FPV drones. You know, there's just, there's no manpower. And the Russians are experiencing a fantastic freedom of movement in this area. Every single village we see like Yusinefica right here, we see one, two, three, four, five, six, seven different geo locations of guys holding up flags just out in the open, right? That's not something we are accustomed to viewing in this war because exposing yourself to the skylight.

that means that you're exposing yourself to enemy drone attacks. And the Russians don't normally do that. So just in terms of like what has changed, the Russians can now walk around this area and not consistently fear for their lives because there are just not enough drone operators. And I had said this before. I think I might have mentioned it in our last conversation that we had that a five kilometer breakthrough is all that's required. on any section of this front. If the Russians are able to penetrate five kilometers and disrupt Ukrainian UAV operations, so the setup of a UAV point where Ukrainians are able to launch FPV drones to go attack Russian positions, if the Ukrainians are not allowed to set those up, if they do not have the time to set those up because the Russians are advancing, there is nothing to hold the line. And this is what we are seeing in multiple sections of the front, but not in the sections of the front where the Ukrainians are pushing all of their remaining reserves like Pekrofs. Prokrovsk is still a very traditional, you know, Russo-Ukrainian war battle compared to this area

down here in the south. And it's not just in Zaporozia. It's also in the Nepefetrosk region. And, you know, this is just unprecedented for this war. If the Russians gain access to Holiai Polia, they will very quickly progress out to the eastern flank of Orichi. Once Odehyve falls, the Russians are poised to start pushing into Zapparogia. And again, the further the Russians get away from these lines, the longer this front line gets, the more complex logistics become for the Ukrainians and the more complex defensive operations become. And it's just looking like, like you said, we are at this inflection point. There's just no morale. There's no manpower.

And really, the equipment even is becoming very, very thin. across the front. We're seeing very few Ukrainian tanks. It's just drone operators and then infantry men sitting in trenches trying to hold back the Russians. Can I just ask a question, which is one I've asked several people, but I never get a clear answer to it, but what is your thoughts about this? Is it actually more difficult for the Ukrainians to hold back the Russians in open country? that you mentioned that in dense, fortified areas, it becomes more difficult for the Russians. But in open country, it becomes easier. Is this because there's no cover for the Ukrainians?

Is it because the Russians can concentrate mass more easily? What are the reasons for this? So there's a couple things. First and foremost, this was not the case in 2022, early 2020. 4. All right, sorry, 2023, 2024. The Russians had a much easier time moving through urban developments, because once they got into an urban area, they were able to move basement to basement, building to building. We saw this in Marupil, Severodonetsk, Bakhmut. The Russians do really good once they're inside. Moving through fields in this FPV environment is a nightmare, right?

Being out in the open. And that's what the Ukrainians are really experiencing in this area. but the Russians are no longer experiencing that FPV threat. So the freedom of movement has become much greater for the Russians. And now moving through these fields in the south here is much, much safer than, say, traversing Pukrovsk-Minherad. Because there's just more areas for the Ukrainians to set up UAV points. They can fly those UAV points or fly those UAVs from other settlements into this area. and then continue defending the line. Whereas in this area, the Russians are moving so fast,

the Ukrainians are in constant state of retreat, and they don't have the FPV operators to prevent all of this movement. I'm really, really concerned about this section of the front for the AFU. I think that this is an area that needs to be watched very, very closely over the next coming months, because this area, it looks like they've decided that they are going to sacrifice. Much like the Le Mans section of the front, It feels like they've decided that Constantinifka, Pukrovsk and Kupiansk are vital, and this area is less vital for them to try to maintain. So, yeah, I think that the Russians are very easily going to be in Pekrovska, Proposnaya, and Jolieipoliéi, before Christmas.

I think that there's going to be a ton of movement in this direction. Is this because, and I think this is a political rather than a military question, this area is further away from Kiev? because I do get the sense that the Zelensky, at least, the further away a battle takes place from Kiev itself, the more relaxed years about it. So Kupiansk and Pachovsk and Dombas are, if you like, kinds of outward eastern shields for Kiev itself, whereas what goes on in the south is far away

and perhaps therefore less important to him. I mean, what do you make of that? And would that be a correct strategic judgment? Yeah, I think he feels the pressure where the pressure is put, right? He is playing to his audience. He's a actor is what he does. He can listen to the crowd and understand why they're upset and what they're upset about. And nobody's talking about this area.

I feel like I'm the only person out there. screaming, hey, something needs to be done here. Something needs to just pay attention to this area. And, you know, if he's not experiencing that pressure, that, you know, that propaganda pressure, he's not going to even talk about it because why would you bring up a negative topic? I think also this area is not overly populated. So in terms of, you know, the wow factor of what's happening here, but cross. is a encirclement of a Ukrainian city.

Like that is a massive situation that needs to be driven narrative-wise very carefully, or else you're going to have massive morale issues and whatnot. This area, you know, the Russians, I'm just going to name some. Ribne, Saldake, Novi, and Novo Yussevinaevka have all fallen within 24 hours. The Russians captured all of those towns in 24 hours. but nobody cares. Nobody's talking about it because they're farm villages, right? They're not necessarily important.

The area is important. The progression is important, but it's not an immediate propaganda point that needs to be talked about at this moment. So I think it's both of those things. I think it is far away from Kiev. I think it's also much less talked about just because of the units in the area. There's territorial defense brigades. You know, they're not the ones chit-chatting all the time. It's the Azov units that are the ones talking in front of the camera constantly, and they're around Pekrofsk.

So it's a combination of unimportant to the government in Kiev, unimportant to the information space in terms of the value of the battle, in terms of entertainment, I almost would say, which is kind of depressing to talk about it in that manner. But people like entertainment, and Pekrovsk is entertaining. That is a battle which is mapable and easily understood and complex, and people just want to invest in that. Whereas this area is cornfields, right? Wheat fields. Like, nobody wants to talk about wheat fields. Which is most extraordinary because you would have thought that in the United States and in Britain, they would be particularly interested in this area because this is precisely the area where they strong armed the Ukrainians into launching their great summit.

a 2020 offensive. I mean, it was all going to be that they were going to break through in precisely this area to the Sea of Azov and to the Black Sea

and retake Marupol and isolate Crimea. And now, as you absolutely rightly say, by the way, I haven't seen a single report in the British media about this area

of the battle at all over the last few months. But they seem to have lost all interest in it, even though, as I said, just two years ago, it was their priority area. Any other places on the battlefronts where you think big events are taking place or places to look out for to keep an eye out on? Yeah, absolutely.

So north of the Vyvotra River here, the Russians are following the Salona River, up to the village of Mazzova. If the Russians are able to get past Novo Pavlovakka and push up to Mazzolva, that is going to compromise the entire rear guard of Pekrovsk. So it just depends on how the timeline plays out for how the Russians choose to advance. Other than Zaporozia, which I believe that this is the area where the Russians have rotated a lot of reserves into, they're going to push here very, very hard. The only other area that I can particularly think of, other than the Kupiansk area,

which is just going to develop naturally, as you guys can see, the Ukrainians are going to, going to retreat out of here is this pocket up here. And I actually have a little outline right here where you can see this yellow line right here. It follows the Savirsky-Donets River, which creates a large water barrier on the western flank of this northern part of Karkov. It is also connected to the city of Kupianz. So this area, talking about logistics again, guys, logistics is so important. logistics is how you win wars. The logistics into this area are very complex. They have to cross a river, which is the Sevres, Svetsky-Donets River. It has been struck multiple times. All of the crossings across here get hit regularly. This area is not very urbanized. So I believe that

the Russians will begin to push into this area after the fall of Vovichensk, which is currently taking place. Vovichensk is almost entirely captured. And we can see the other potentiality of the Russian forces pushing in on this northern corner and the incursion that we have already seen across the Russian border into the northern edge of Karkov. So I believe that this whole northern section of the Karkoff front will be pushed by the Russians. I do believe that the Russians are creating another grouping specifically for this. I've heard rumors from not only the sources that I have in the Russian military, but also just open source Russian accounts talking about a new grouping being built for this direction that is specifically going to push for a city

that the Russians very much want to come home. I don't know what city that is, but to me, that sounds like Kutkov. So as we look at the map, it does appear that this area will experience a lot of Russian push in the future. And again, we're just talking about really the periphery battles where, again, the Ukrainians don't have the manpower to maintain their positions. They don't have the political willpower to talk about it, like we're seeing in Zaporozni and Neboprthrosk, and the Russians have the means to take it. So, yeah, I think that I would, I would just be very cautious with just putting all of your eggs in this basket right here, because this is the basket that, I mean, like, for me, it's always, what is the,

Ukrainian government talking about. What is Zelensky talking about? Okay, now what else is happening and why aren't they talking about the other stuff that's happening? That's the important stuff to me because if everybody's talking about one thing, it's going to get talked about, right? It's going to be discussed. Everybody's going to know what happens with it. But it's these other areas that are falling, stumbling, and collapsing that really aren't being discussed that need to be discussed. Let's talk about the diplomacy. That's the right word for it. President Trump becomes president. He asks the Russians to agree to a ceasefire on the existing conflict lines.

He started to suggest that back in March. We're now seeing significant changes in the conflict lines since then. He then seemed to go back on that in August. He's reverted to that position. Recently, he says that, the war is in stalemate, that the Russians are perhaps even losing the war because they're suffering all of these losses. I think after your presentation, it's absolutely clear. He's absolutely wrong about those things. What is the United States going to do in this situation?

They've invested massively in this war. And Trump himself, well, perhaps he had a chance to disassociate himself from it, but it doesn't look to me as if that's an option now, they're going to see this cascade of collapse that you've been outlining, because I think I'm not misrepresenting what you just said, and I've used that. So what is he going to do? What is the United States going to do in this situation? I mean, have you any thoughts about this? Yeah, I have a bunch of thoughts. I believe the last time I was on here, I said, even if Trump wanted to end the war, he has to deal with the Ukrainian position. He has to deal with the European position.

He has to get the U.S. to agree with those positions. And then they have to take that position to the Russians who are going to turn it down because they're not going to buy some Ukrainian nonsense. You know, this is this is just part of the, you know, I hate to just be like a continuity of agenda guy and just push this stuff. but Trump didn't have an option. He was stuck in this war. They intended for that to be the case. He can't get out of it in a way that fully negates U.S. liability for what is going to happen. And it is clear that what this was was an attempt to destroy the Russian economy, perhaps regime

change in Russia, get the Russian economy, pull the way from China, separate that energy connection and then take on China in the future. That didn't play out the way it was supposed to. So now we're kind of caught in a bear trap, right? We have our leg just stuck in this thing. And we don't want to be here, but we can't leave because they'll get rolled. Ukraine will just get rolled. And then Europe will be dealing with all of that. And the U.S. will be dealing with everything that Europe has to deal with. So we can't just leave it. But we want to pivot, right? We want to pivot to the south. China region or Southeast Asian region. We want to go and strike Venezuela for whatever reason. We're doing that oil, obviously. But there's just so much happening that I think the U.S.

is going to be forced to pull back from Ukraine. I think Ukraine is very clearly heading a direction, which will not allow the U.S. any victory leeway. We're not going to be able to claim victory in this battle in any decent regard other than, you know, we killed X amount of Russians, which we tried to claim the same thing in Vietnam, right? We killed X number of Vietnamese, but it didn't change the outcome of the war. It doesn't change who controls that country now. Same thing is going to happen in Ukraine. And I just see everything happening right now as the last desperate attempts to position whoever is involved in a way to come out with a sort of my hands are clean. We did what we could try to do and now we're done.

And this, for anybody actually watching this, after the stall of the 2023 counteroffensive, there has been nothing that the West can do to save this situation for Ukraine outside of a negotiated settlement or direct involvement themselves, which is not going to happen. They've made it very clear that that is a no-go. domestically, that's not going to play. They can't even send their best missiles to Ukraine, right? We haven't come to a conclusion on Tomahawk, even though the Pentagon has said it's okay. Taurus is not being sent for that same reason. And same with Jasm. We refuse to cross specific lines. We refuse to put ourselves in a position where we are liable for the actions of the Ukrainian

state against the Russian Federation. We do not want that open war. Some people might want that open war. We don't want that. Most of the people in the positions of power in the U.S. don't want that because they're not going to make money off of that. So we're really in a very, very poor position. I said when Trump got in, he should absolutely try to get a negotiated settlement. Force Ukraine to the table. Take that garbage deal for the Ukrainians, that garbage deal,

which is not really a garbage deal. It's actually a really good deal, giving up those four oblasts and recognizing them and just getting everything else free and clear seems pretty, pretty damn good to me compared to what we're looking at now, which is the loss of multiple additional oblasts and potentially the collapse of the Ukrainian government, an installation of a puppet state, a puppet regime that would be more pro-Russian friendly at the end of this. I see all that being very likely now. So the real win would have been taking the negotiated settlement.

We're far past that. The Russians are not interested in that. anymore. And I don't blame them. I mean, if you look at Hezbollah, if you look at Gaza, if you look at Venezuela, if you look at Iran, I wouldn't want to do any diplomacy with the United States right now. So I think we are in a position we regularly find ourselves in. We've committed to something. We've overcommitted to it. We've doubled down on it. Now we need to get out, but we just can't possibly do that. How could we possibly leave the Ukrainians who are the defenders of European democracy, defenders of world democracy, in fact, against the Russian hordes,

which will push to Berlin very, very soon. You know, this is like the idea, the narrative that we have created. And in terms of material support, we have nothing left to give. I think the Ukrainians are asking for more patriots after this last attack. We don't have enough patriots for our own defense capabilities now. We don't have enough interceptors to last more than 12 days against Iran. Could you imagine a war against China? imagine a war against an enemy that actually has missile production capabilities, it would just be unbelievable and detrimental to the empire, right? So we're struggling to find a means of claiming some small victory in this battle, and I just think we've completely blundered it. I just don't think it's an option now. I think you're absolutely right about saying that the Russians are in an

implacable mood. We've had a whole succession. of interviews that Lavrov has given, which have provided a lot of information now about what the discussions in Alaska were all about. It looks as if the Americans basically said that they were going to accept Putin's June 2024 proposals, but just asked for what now is increasingly looking based on his latest comments,

Lavrov's latest comments, a temporary ceasefire in Zaporosian-Herson region. But Lavrov makes it clear that the Russians expected even then those territories ultimately to be transferred to them. Now, his latest interview, the one that he's just given to Novosti, I thought he came across as being in a completely implacable mood. and I noticed that Putin has been very polite about Trump up to now, now doesn't even mention him by name anymore. So I get the sense that the Russians are in a completely implacable mood from this point.

So let's see this because I actually also think the same. I think that given how far things have moved since August, since the meeting in August, both the fact that the Americans went back on what it appeared that they were about to agree to in August, and the fact that the Russians are now breaking through in the way you've just described, either Russians have any intention of stopping now. Why would they?

At which point what happens? Let's say that there is a Russian victory in Ukraine. Does anybody in the United States, in the government there, understand what the consequences of that would be in the wider geopolitical sense. I mean, how it would be perceived around the world and how it would be perceived in Europe too. I think that they do understand it. I mean, some of them. Obviously, you have your more educated on specific topics and less educated on specific topics, people in our government.

But in general, the decision makers, the people who are understanding, understanding the importance of Ukraine geostrategically, the importance of Ukraine to Russia geostrategically, I think they fully understand what's at stake here. And that's the specific reason why we haven't just wiped our hands clean of it. We know that this loss is going to be detrimental to our geostrategic position, is going to be detrimental to Europe's geostrategic position, and it's going to be fantastic for Russia's. So that's, and that's exactly why we can't pull out. It's a bear trap. I have no other way of explaining it other than we set up the bear trap.

We put food in it. We got hungry. We reached in. And now we're just stuck in this bear trap and we can't get out of it. So I tend to agree with that. And I think when you're talking about, you know, LeVrov's statements and stuff recently, I think the clearest indication of Russian, the direction that the Russians are planning on taking is what they have been striking recently with their combined missile and drone strikes. You know, in the past in 2022, 2022, 2023, and 2024, we saw these sort of very soft infrastructure campaigns.

They demonstrated that they could destroy specific generation capabilities. They hit some substations, but they never took the Ukrainian grid offline. In this most recent strike by the Russian aerospace forces, they destroyed all of Ukraine's thermal generation capabilities. all of their TPPs are now offline. Additionally, the 750 kilovolte substations, which connect to the nuclear power plants, not directly, but they disperse that electricity and bring energy into the power plant have been targeted by Russian strikes. This is a massive escalation from the Russian government.

And I honestly didn't even expect this. I expected the Russian infrastructure campaign to be mostly focused on disrupting logistics to the front. Railway infrastructure, everything tied to the rail lines, that sort of stuff. This is a whole different level, something that I did not expect from the Russians, something that just shows where the Russians are at. They just simply do not care anymore. They are going to persecute this war the way that they see fit to the end that they see fit.

And I think that this has been, this should have been their position since 2023. That is my opinion on it. I don't think negotiations were ever going to amount to anything. And I think that Alaska very much prove that to the Russians, that it's basically whoever's whispering in Trump's ear at the moment. You know, if it's Zelensky there, the Russians are about to lose. If it's Putin there, Zelensky needs to come to the table. You know, it's just whatever is going on at the moment for him. What about Ukraine itself?

I mean, do they have any ability to negotiate? Because Zelensky and his officials, I mean, they can see the situation that you've, just described. They must know that Akarovsky is going to fall in one way or the other. They would be wise, I think, to order their troops to withdraw, as you rightly say, because just to quickly add about that, what then always happens as far as I can see is that the Russians eventually release them back to the Ukrainians. So, I mean, I don't really see why you wouldn't want to release your encircled troops in that respect. But of course, it's exactly what. what you said. It's the image effect would be disastrous for Zelensky.

But Zelensky must know deep down that the Bakros situation is impossible. He must have some sense about what's happening in the south, in Zaporosia. He must also understand what you describe in Kharkov region. And he must also know that the days when Ukraine can hold on to this fortified line of towns is, I mean, there's a numbered. And yet he continues to refuse to negotiate. And as far as I could see, most of the political class in Ukraine agree with him. Why?

Why? I mean, do they still think the Americans are going to ride to their rescue? I mean, I know, can I just say I was there. I wasn't physically there, but I remember South Vietnam. and President Tew of South Vietnam believed that the Americans would come to the rescue even as the Vietnamese, the North Vietnamese, were outside Saigon.

I mean, they clung on to that belief right up until the very last moment. But is that what Zelensky thinks? Is he still thinking that the American, you know, the seventh cavalry is going to ride to his rescue in some way? Because what rational reason does he have for continuing this conflict.

Surely, put aside, forget about Trump, forget about the Americans, he should be asking the Russians to come to a compromise now, as he did in spring 2020. So what are the Ukrainians going to do in this situation? So I fully agree with you. There doesn't seem to be any sort of gas pedal

with the Ukrainian political class. They seem fully on board with this. I don't know if it's just drinking your own Kool-Aid to a point. I don't know if they're being lied to behind closed doors. I mean, maybe they're being told that there is going to be a coalition of the willing. European army, you just have to hold on for six more months or a year longer. Something's going to happen. The narrative is going to change.

And we're going to be able to support you further. Maybe that's going on. I don't hear any of those conversations. I don't see any of that. To me, if I were putting myself in Zelensky, shoes. I don't know how I get out of this alive. The operations that I've instructed the SBU to undertake or that they have undertook inside of Russia, the St. Petersburg Cafe bombing, the Crimean Bridge bombing, the most recent bombing at a bus stop that killed a woman that was just waiting for a bus.

It was trying to target military individuals, but there were none there. These sort of terrorist attacks, it doesn't bode well for the regime after the war ends. What options does Zelensky have? Is he going to make nice with the Russians? What happens when he does that? Are they going to just forgive all of the transgressions which have occurred, all of the negotiations which have just been completely thrown out the window? You know, the Operation Spider Web, that happened in the middle of negotiations. They struck Russia's strategic nuclear nuclear. you know, bomber fleet. So there, I just think we've kind of crossed the rubicon here for the Ukrainians. I don't think that the regime has any other option but to continue fighting.

This is maybe not the best analogy, but it's almost like putting yourself in the Nazi regime during, you know, 1944. You know, the Soviets are closing in from one side. The Americans are closing in from the other. What option do you have? Like, what is, what are you going to now say that the entire fight wasn't worth it, what you've invested your entire life in. You're going to be tried for crimes potentially. You are going to be captured by the Soviets or the Americans one way or the other. Do you just keep fighting? Like, what option do you have? That's how I think of it, at least. Well, I think we've covered it. I think we've covered, I have nothing that I can think of more that I can ask you, except to thank you for answering my question so thoroughly.

But, Scott, perhaps you have something further you want to add on top of what we've just said? Yeah, just in terms of the overall military situation in Ukraine, the Russian army is becoming stronger daily. I think this month we saw something close to 5,000 glide munitions dropped by Russian aircraft. Russian aircraft basically now have air superiority over Ukraine. The Russian drone complex is growing at an exponential rate. The Russian military is growing in size constantly. There is no slowing down in Russian production. We have now in the West created the bogeyman that we so talked about in 2022 that did not exist at that time.

The Russian army now is a very real threat and it is becoming a greater threat daily. And that's good for the Russians, I would say. Like if you're a Russian, that's what you want. Your military is strong. They're capable. They're up to date now. and that's what Ukraine has done for the Russians. If anybody has any sort of curiosity about what is going to happen in Ukraine,

all you have to do is look at who's getting stronger and who's getting weaker, who's moving forward and who's coming back, who's making excuses for what's happening and who's remaining silent as they continue to progress. That's all you have to look at. If you're ever confused about the conflict, just break it down into those very simple points. And that's all I have to say. And I very much appreciate you guys having me on today.

And we very much look forward to having you on again. And can I again recommend Calibrated Outstanding Channel? Absolutely enormously informative. And also go to Scott to Calibrated on X and Telegram and all of those other places. I learned so much from you, Scott. Thank you for coming on our program. Thank you so much. Thank you, Scott, for joining us.

Once again, it is calibrated on YouTube with a K. Yes. And on X, it is the handle Aiden, right? Eden. Yep. I will have those links in the description box as well as a pinned comment. Thank you so much, guys. Also on Telegram as well. It's Aiden, right? Yes, sir. Fantastic. Scott from Calibrated Twitter, X-Handle Aden. Thank you so much. Thank you, guys. Have a good one. Take care.