The Duran Podcast - Macron, Starmer, Carney and Palestine recognition

Episode Date: August 2, 2025

Macron, Starmer, Carney and Palestine recognition

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the countries now that are claiming they will recognize a Palestinian state by September. Collective West countries. It started with Macron about a week, week and a half ago. Mertz has been pressured, but still has not come out with a statement saying that Germany will recognize a Palestinian state. Stomer the other day said that the UK will, of course, with caveat. Macaron also put caveats in there as well. And we even have Canada now saying that they're ready to recognize Palestine, but of course there are conditions with that recognition as well.

Basically, the conditions revolve around some sort of a ceasefire taking place. And Canada, Carney said that some sort of an election or proper government must be formed in this Palestinian state that Canada is ready to recognize. So, I mean, they're putting conditions in there. They're putting a timeline. The timeline is September, and it also revolves around a UN, a UN General Assembly meeting or a security council meeting that will take place in September. But still, you do have a lot of countries now in the collective West, which are now coming out,

and saying they're prepared to recognize a Palestinian state. Your thoughts. Well, this is an utterly phony thing, if I may say so, straight a word. It has two purposes. The first is to take the heat off, the European leaders. They're facing increasing criticism within their own countries because of what's happening in Gaza and because of what they're failing to do to bring that situation to an end. This is particularly the case in Britain. We've discussed Kirstama's political position in Britain many times. I've done serious programs about this. I've explained that he was never popular to start with.

with that his government essentially now just functions without really governing in any effective way. He's just had rebellions from his parliamentary party. He's deeply unpopular. He now has a left-wing party that's emerged led by Jeremy Corbyn, that is challenging the Labour Party, and which is leveled with, in the opinion polls with Labour. So, you know, he's got all of this happening. So on the one hand, he wants to show to the Labour electorate, which is generally very pro-Palestinian, that he understands their concerns and all of this. So, you know, at some levels, this is an attempt to respond to domestic political pressures. And this is particularly true in Britain. The other thing is trying to do is that you can see that this is a very complicated attempt in some ways to display.

and to get round the problem of Hamas. So there was a resolution, a statement that was published a couple of days ago. By a group of European countries, including all the ones we're talking about, and some of the Gulf states basically calling on Hamas to disband itself and to disarm so that a ceasefire could be put in place and so that the way could be opened for, a Palestinian government to be established. So the idea seems to be recognize the Palestinian authority as a state and extend its authority to Gaza and in that way get round the obstacle that Hamas is seen to present.

The problem is, of course, Hamas is the power on the ground. So they're going to object to this. And Israel is also going to object to this, as is the United States. And for that reason, even if this all happens, even if there is no ceasefire, which I don't believe there will be, even if Israel doesn't make any of the moves towards negotiations, which they're also demanding. And why would Israel do that? Even if nothing like that happens, and even if they do recognize in September the Palestinian Authority as a Palestinian state, how does that actually change anything? To me, it changes absolutely nothing. It is an initiative that is completely meaningless.

So what happens in September? Well, perhaps nothing does because, I mean, the one possibility is that they'll back off. I mean, it could be that the Israelis will do some things like announce a brief ceasefire. Say there is a ceasefire. But let's say there is a ceasefire. I mean, if there's a ceasefire, then, well, they might back off because, you know, they're made a conditional on this. But let's assume that there is no ceasefire. Let's assume that the situation is much, as we say. And they do recognize Mahmoud Abbas and Palestinian Authority in Palestine, as the government of Palestine.

Does this change the realities on the ground? No. Donald Trump has already made it absolutely clear that he's not supporting this in any way. He speaks, as far as I can see, for the US government. That is also the position in Congress. There will no doubt be Palestinian embassies opening up in some European countries. There will be attempts made at the General Assembly to give the Palestinian embassy to give the Palestinian in delegation there, a vote in the General Assembly. But does that change the realities on the ground now? No, it doesn't. True. It doesn't change the realities on the ground now, but doesn't

that have an effect going forward, medium to long term? Yes. Yes, it does. It potentially could. Could the UK roll that back? I mean, no. I mean, once it's done, I can't myself see how it can be Undone. And that, of course, is the reason why they've been very reluctant and unwilling to do this and have resisted doing this for so long. Because if you do get a Palestinian state, and it is internationally recognized, then inevitably it will start to attract political support from around the world. And, you know, we will start to have a degree of legitimacy for it in the General Assembly. And if you remember, we had all those discussions a year or so ago, two years ago, whilst Biden was still president about the diplomatic initiatives that we were seeing in the United Nations,

how eventually this would lead to ceasefire resolutions in the Security Council. And there was one, by the way, which Trump basically ignored and the Israelis have ignored. But we would start to see proper, we would start to see pressure for ceasefire resolutions in the security council. and moves towards the General Assembly taking its steps of its own. And we would probably start to see more of that. And that would, over time, gradually intensify the political pressure, both on Israel and on the United States.

But in the short term, this is a response, as I said, to internal disquire, quiet within these countries. They're doing the minimum they can by saying that they will recognize this Palestinian state in September in order to get the political pressure that's building up domestically off their backs. I think possibly Britain will do it because there's very strong feelings here, especially, as I said, amongst Labour Party supporters. I don't know the situation in Canada, but I can imagine that they might do it too. France, I think it's more evenly balanced. I don't think Merz will do it.

Right. If they do, I mean, from a political standpoint, if you're Stammer or, say, Carney, Macaron, whatever. Okay, so you recognize a Palestinian state. I imagine you say I'm out of here anyway, or definitely Stommer. If you're Stommer, you say I'm going to exit in six months to a year anyway, so I can leave this to the next government. to deal with this or take this forward in whichever way they want to. Yes.

But the medium to long-term effects are that you do recognize a Palestinian state. Well, indeed. I mean, that does mean eventually an embassy. That does mean eventually recognition at the United Nations. I mean, it would be a massive defeat for Netanyahu, for Israel, right? Absolutely. It would be. and over time, it would have a cumulative effect. It's been done very reluctantly, as I said,

it's not going to change the situation on the ground in any way. It's not intended to change the situation on the ground. In fact, it's intended to take the pressure off these governments so that they don't have to take that additional pressure going forward. But, as you correctly say, over time when all of these people, Macron and Stama and ultimately, Kani too, are gone, it will have an important effect. And this brings us back to the right back to the start of the crisis in October 20, 23, and we said at the time, we said in many places that the Israeli response was completely wrong,

that the attempt to defeat Hamas militarily would end in disaster, that the correct way to have done it was to go to the Security Council, to get support from the Security Council, to seek a diplomatic outcome to this, and that would have been a much better outcome. And we're starting to see how events are developing and are taking us at that place. Yeah. What do you think the reaction in Israel will be? Maybe this is a hard question for you to answer. But what do you think the reaction is going to be in September if this does happen

towards Netanyahu, especially from the hardliners? I mean, or no reaction at all. They're not going to care. Well, they won't see it in the way that I've seen. suggested. I mean, what I've discussed, by the way, and I want to stress this, is what I think the best option in October 23 for Israel would have been. But they didn't take it. And they're not going to change their line. What is going to happen is that the hardliners in Israel will be infuriated by this decision. And their reaction will be to intensify the pressure,

to try to establish more facts on the ground, as they say, in the West Bank, and in Gaza to move towards full annexation and ultimately, you know, the absorption of this territory into Israel. And we all know what they want to do with the population there. And it'll be the same in the same with the West Bank. You see an intensification of the policy. rather than a easing of it. And I think they will have a lot of support in Israel to do that as well, by the way. And support in Washington.

And support in Washington. Right. Do you think the U.S. is going to put pressure on the UK, on France, on Canada to reverse course? It is already doing so. At the moment, my sense is that the domestic pressure, decent Brazil, is too strong. And if we're talking about Stama, I mean, he, he, he, He met Trump in Scotland. He sat next to Trump over the course of a press conference.

The universal view in Britain was that he was completely humiliated, that it was a disaster, that the optics of it were dreadful. And if he again capitulates to Trump over this, that will embitter and enrage further labour supporters. It could increase the drift into Jeremy Corbyn's party. and it will increase more problems for him for Stama within his parliamentary party. So Stama's inclination would probably be to put this off to do what Trump wanted him to do. But as I said, whether he could do that politically is becoming increasingly questionable.

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