The Duran Podcast - Macron wants Niger invasion, green light to ECOWAS

Episode Date: September 3, 2023

Macron wants Niger invasion, green light to ECOWAS

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the situation that is developing in Niger. We have a statement from French President Macron, essentially giving the green light to ECOWAS to intervene, invade Niger. It has, ECOWAS has Macron's blessing now to go in to Niger. The question is, will ECOWAS go into Niger? What do you make of Macron's statement where he is, he's talking about ECOAS intervening. It's an extraordinary statement.

And can I just say, I mean, apart from independent media in the West, where his comments have been fully and extensively covered, and of course, part of the media in France, I've noticed that in Britain and the United States, it's been covered very little, because he said two things. Firstly, Niger has ordered the French ambassador to leave, but Macron says the French ambassador is going to stay.

They're not going to pay any attention to what the government of Niger says, or rather the authorities in Niger say, because as far as they're concerned, those authorities are illegitimate, the only legitimate president that France recognizes as President Basin, who was overthrown by that coup that took place a few weeks ago. And in effect, Macron has just announced that France, considers the government in Niger, the authorities in Niger, to be illegitimate, to have no real

authority in Rijer, Niger to be rebels and criminals. And he said that France will back an intervention, backs an intervention by ECOWAS in Niger. Now, I think that, of course, it's not the question of France backing that intervention in Niger. The reality is that Macron has been working over time, over the last few weeks, ever since the coup took place to try to get the ECOWAS to intervene in Niger. And the fact that he's come up with this statement, that this statement now backing the intervention by ECOWAS in Niger means, I think that a decision within ECOWAS to intervene has been made. I think the authorities in Niger know the role that France has been playing in getting this intervention together, and that is why they ordered the French ambassador to leave.

So all of the indications now are that we're going to get over the next couple of days a military advance by ECOWAS into Niger with a real risk that we're going to. we could have a regional war, another regional war in our hands. The hypocrisy in all of this, the double standards hypocrisy in all of this is just, it's pretty incredible. You know, Macron goes on and on about Russia and Ukraine and, you know, there was a coup in Ukraine in 2014, and we know the whole story. But here he is now pushing for an intervention in Niger. And to be the part that really really gets me. gets my blood boiling is that France doesn't have the guts to do it themselves. They're,

they're forcing, they're goading, they're manipulating ECHOWAS to do it for them. Why does ECHOWAS? Why are they doing this? Yeah. Well, it's a very good question. I mean, you talk about hypocrisy. Let's just explore that a moment, just explore that a moment. I mean, in 2014, the democratically elected constitutional president of Ukraine is overla, thrown in our following violent events which by any measure constitute a coup, very violent events by the way in which many many people were killed. France supports it. I mean, you know, they recognize immediately the authorities that take over. They've never complained about what happened in Ukraine. On the contrary, they've celebrated what took place in Ukraine at that time and you know they go out of their way to deny the fact that it was a coup even though it bore all

the trappings of a coup something not quite the same but in some way similar happens in Niger there's a coup against the president everybody accepts it was a coup it's largely non-violent no not much evidence that anybody was killed over the course of that affair the president that has been overthrown is well and safe still in Niger. It seems the vast majority of people in Niger support it. France opposes it. They stand by the constitutional system and democracy of Niger. So, you know, what's good for Niger is bad for Ukraine and vice versa. And don't bother asking the French or Macron to explain the differences. I mean, probably if you don't. If you don't, you'd did Osmacon, you get a long, windy lecture, which when you unpicked it, would amount to nothing.

But that's, that's, that's the kind of hypocrisy that the French engaged in. And absolutely right, you know, he can't himself intervene. He won't send troops to Niger, which, by the way, once upon a time the French used to do. They used to, I remember when they were, I mean, the French, for example, when Bacasseh was ruling, the Central African Republic and had made it a Central African Empire. It was pretty obvious that France sent troops into Central African Republic or empire and over through

Bacassar. They were quite open about it in those days, quite unashamed about it. Now they see how things have changed. They can't go themselves. Also, by some accounts, the French military is not quite what it was. So, and, you know, they're very angry with Macron anyway, so he gets others to do France's dirty work for them. He gets the countries of West Africa, the ECOWAS states, who knows what inducements and threats and bribes and things have been so, you know, passed on behind the scenes, the French doing that, the Americans doing

that for them, to get ECOWAS, which clearly has not been keen to intervene. in Niger, the African Union, dead against this intervention altogether, other regional states, Chad, Burkina Faso, Mali against it, opposing it, Algeria opposing it. But nonetheless, to get these other states to go into Niger, possibly find themselves in a prolonged war in Niger. Who knows? But it's certainly a possibility. Of course, if it succeeds, if the old system, is restored if France is back in control of Niger, well, Macron will no doubt say it's a job well done, but it all blows up and goes horribly wrong,

Macron can say to himself, well, I'm not directly involved. I can pretend that it's nothing to do with me. I can shed tears about the crisis in West Africa and blame it on someone else. As you said, incredibly cowardly, again, someone like in the old days, General de Gaulle would have been revolted by this. He would have been revolted by the hypocrisy and he'd been revolted by the cowardice. But that is France and Macron today.

Is it a stretch to say that in Ukraine, the collective West, got one way or another. They managed to get brothers fighting brothers, a brotherly nation, fighting a brotherly nation to a certain extent. And in Niger, they're about to do the same. And I'm referencing, for example, Nigeria, which is, if there is an ECOWAS intervention, obviously Nigeria is going to be the lead country there. I mean, can you draw that connection, that parallel, and say, you know, what they did to Ukraine and getting this proxy war, getting Ukrainians to fight Russians is very much what they're going to, what they're trying to do in West Africa,

where they're going to get a neighbor, a brotherly nation, to fight another brotherly nation. I mean, is that a stretch or? No, it's not a stretch at all. I think it's exactly right. I mean, the point you understand about all of these boundaries and frontiers in West Africa is that, of course, there are, to a great extent, a legacy of colonial times. If you're talking about countries like, say, northern Nigeria and Mars,

Mali and Niger, I mean, they form part of the same cultural world. And yes, I mean, I'm not going to pretend. I am an expert on the languages and nations of West Africa. But they've always been incredibly close to each other. Niger, northern Nigeria, Mali. They always, it seems to me, if you follow the history, that they functioned together and of course other areas as well you know southern Nigeria

Senegal you can see the you can see the similarities I mean the difference was that some of these places were ruled by the British other places were ruled by the French they drew the lines the boundary lines which have been accepted by these countries and I'm not suggesting that you know nations haven't formed within these boundaries, but obviously they're all deeply interconnected with one another. And the whole point about ECOWAS, the original point about ECOWAS and the original point about

the African Union, but especially ECOWAS in this region, is that it was intended to bring these fraternal nations close together. but all of that is now being sacrificed to the interests of France, which is, of course, an outsider and the former colonial power, and of course also to the geostrategic interests of the neocons in the United States, because they are playing an active role in this as well. How does this final question, how does this boomerang back to the damage French or to damage Macon, like what are the risks? Well, there are enormous risks.

in getting ECOWAS to do this for him. Well, let's first of all assume that this succeeds, which it might do. I mean, apparently the intervention force is 12,000 strong, which sounds like a lot, but I suspect given the size of Niger isn't. But let's assume it succeeds. Let's assume they manage to get through all the way to the capital. There's limited resistance. The former president is restored to power, all of that.

What has happened is that, of course, France has none of the, been exposed, its unpopularity in Niger is now there for everyone to see. The elite in Niger apparently want to distance themselves from France. The people of Niger want to distance themselves from France. And it turns out that France by itself is not strong enough to act. It has to hide behind other countries, behind ECOWAS and behind the United States. And that must mean not only that France is position in West Africa over time is going to crumble, but it's also going to be the case that all of the people in West Africa now know,

and the French are only in it for themselves, they will want to get rid of the French. The people in West Africa, wherever they are, in every West African country, they will want to end this relationship, this cut this relationship with France, at some point in the future, even if this succeeds. It's going to work against France, whereas if France are taking a different approach, sort of good relationship with Niger, an equal relationship with Niger,

or at least a respectful relationship with Niger, that could have been avoided. But that, of course, assumes that it succeeds. What if it fails? Then you have a war, a war that could easily explain. into other countries which might destabilize

Nigeria, which is a complex country, very different parts in Nigeria has a history of coups and dictatorships and civil wars, very savage civil war that took place in Nigeria in the 1960s. It could create major problems

in the world economy. If there's a war there, uranium from Niger, oil from Nigeria, conceivably all of that could be in jeopardy, chocolate from the Ivory Coast, codivois, I should say not the Ivory Coast, codivois, coffee, all of these things. I mean, you could have that kind of knock-on effect.

But of course, that's only the start of it. We could have a humanitarian catastrophe. We could have massive refugee flows towards Europe. We could have a spread of violent jihadism throughout the region. There are jihadi groups present

in all of these countries in Mali, in Nisia, in Burkina Faso, in Nigeria as well. Boko Haram,

remember them? I mean, that they could all get more and more traction. And of course, what all of the people in the region would unite in doing is that they would want to blame France

and they would want to to blame the West. That would eventually, however, however long it took it would eventually sort itself out. But when it did sort itself out, the people in West Africa, they would say, we don't want anything more to do with France. We don't want anything more to do with the United States. Let's go to the Russians and the Chinese instead, because they're the people who provide us with security and stability. Oh boy. All right. The durand. Dotlocos.com. We are on Rumble Odyssey, Bitshoot, Rockfin, and Telegram. We are also on Twitter as well.

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