The Duran Podcast - Massive Russian Strike. Three Factions Fight For Control of Ukraine

Episode Date: August 20, 2026

Massive Russian Strike. Three Factions Fight For Control of Ukraine

All right, Alexander, let's talk about what is happening with Project Ukraine. We had a big Russian missile strike into Ukraine yesterday evening. No air defense for Ukraine. So I imagine that the Russians hit whatever they wanted to hit. We have a political situation happening in Ukraine, some more palace intrigue. Froderoff, the former defense minister calling for elections. Zelensky firing a top aide because of a corruption scandal, Operation Forrest Gump. I'm not making up that name.

That is what the investigation is called. This is connected to Firepoint and the Golden Toilets energy scandal that broke out about six months or nine months ago. So all of this is connected. And once again, we see Zelensky firing top aides. and the situation on the front lines continues to go from bad to worse. We do have admissions now from Ukraine analysts, military analysts and mappers, that Dobropilia does look set to fall. Your thoughts. Well, I think you've summed up the whole situation extremely well.

Now, there's a number of things to say. Firstly, the strike that we saw that has just been carried out against Kiev and other places in UK, crane is another massive strike involving multiple ballistic missiles, apparently something like a dozen circon hypersonic cruise missiles, jet-powered drones, which seem to be increasingly taking over on the Russian side from the earlier turboprop power drones. As you absolutely rightly say, there is no analog in terms of, there's no defense against these attacks. There's no air defense to speak or I don't think the Ukrainians are even able to bring down the jet-powered drones because these drones are now evolving into something rather like

cruise missiles. They're becoming a sort of cheap form of cruise missile that is actually a guided by, in some cases at least, by controllers in Russia. So Ukraine is absolutely open. And not just that, we also have, as we've discussed in many programs, the blockade of Ukraine's black seaports. We've had the attacks on the gasoline stations and the locomotives. The result is that Ukraine can't export, and there was a meeting in Ukraine in Kiev of Ukraine's parliament, which was called back after its summer vacation. And there was a lot of discussion and debate about the situation of the country there. The parliament itself, I should say, is a profoundly dysfunctional,

institution in Ukraine. It doesn't have a huge role in Ukrainian politics. So most of the people who serve in it are, shall we say, ambitious and self-seeking individuals who probably not that different in some ways from the kind of people who now populate European parliaments, but not very responsible anyway. But even they were having to acknowledge the realities. The economy is in a tailspin, agricultural products. is collapsing because the farmers can't export, they can't get fertilizer, their shortages of diesel. Agriculture used to be one of the key parts of Ukraine's economy. It accounted for something like half its export revenue, Ukraine's export revenue, that's all gone. The metallurgical industry,

the iron and steel industry, is similar crisis. They too can't export. The European Union is now imposing restrictions on imports from Ukraine of steel and such products to protect European industries. But of course, it's all superfluous because the industries themselves are being smashed by the Russians. And the biggest steel mill in Ukraine in Krivojurag, massively damaged. Some are saying essentially out of action. So you have a massive economic crisis, a massive air defense crisis. You're absolutely correct in saying that the situation on the front lines for Ukraine is getting worse.

Dobropilia looks set to fall. Oreck-off in the south, perhaps not quite as fast, but it too is going to fall fairly soon. soon, crisis in Dombas, the Russians gaining more and more territory in northeastern Ukraine. So everything is simultaneously coming apart. And of course, the way it manifests itself politically is in increasing, intensifying political feuding in Kiev, which ultimately doesn't mean it. anything very much, because none of the parties to these political feuds have any real plans or ideas about what to do for the future of Ukraine. So we've had investigations launched

against Zelensky's aides. He's just had to drop the deputy head of his presidential administration, Her office and homes have just been investigated, searched by Naboo, the anti-corruption agency. As you said, Operation Forrest Gump and all of that. The former defence minister who Zelensky sacked a few weeks ago, Fyodorov, is now demanding presidential elections and dropping very heavy hints. he wants to stand. However, we've had reports from London that the British continue to support Zelensky, the British deep state continues to support Zelensky. Some people in Britain perhaps would prefer to see Zaluzzi take over, but for the moment at least they're sticking by Zelensky because they worry that if Zelensky goes, the political crisis in Kiev will spiral out of

of control. He has no intention of leaving. He is determined to stay. And, well, there was an article in the Financial Times, which, I mean, said it straightforwardly and brazenly. Whatever revenue Ukraine loses from its exports, whatever happens to its domestic economy, basically. It really, for people like Zelensky and those around him, it doesn't matter, because the European Union will just come along and give money to make up the difference. So we have now a small group of people in Kiev who are clinging onto power, receiving endless money flows from Europe and from the West, entirely happy to keep the war going, but engaging in ever more vicious feuds with each other,

which are basically, as we've discussed in earlier programs, in fact, about getting closer to the money flow, even as everything else is collapsing around them. That is the situation in Ukraine today. Yeah, it's exactly as we described. in our analysis going back six months, even a year back. Six months? Years ago? Yeah, years ago.

Two years ago. Two years ago, I think it was two years ago you first started talking about the grift. In fact, in some ways, I mean, you made programs about it long before that. But I think it's never been more obvious than now. Go ahead. No, I mean, that's what I would say. I was just going to say it's more obvious. now, and you're 100% right, because whatever other functioning parts of the economy were left,

the agriculture, the steel, are now being dismantled by Russia. So the only thing that all of these elite and oligarchs in Ukraine, let's say the three power structures now that I see forming Zelensky, which is the main power structure, you have something surrounding Zilluzni, maybe Zaluzni. Poroshenko, Klitsko, you have kind of this faction. And then you have this new high-tech, tech pro faction, which is affronted by Fedadov. These warring factions are fighting for what's essentially left of Ukraine, the Ukraine economy, which is the military stuff and the EU money.

It's all connected. The EU slush funds and the military stuff. Exactly. So you don't have the agriculture, you don't have the steel, all of that's God. So they're fighting for this, the remaining money flow. That's all. There's even talk now that, you know, that they fear that there's going to be a mass exodus of people from the cities, from Kiev and from the other cities in the winter

because the energy system is close to collapse. Energy generation is apparently a fifth of what it was before the start of the special military operation. The energy system has never been brought. back to full shape after the Russian missile strikes and they are only intensifying. It's expected to be the worst winter ever. And apparently shops in Kiev are now starting to run short of all kinds of consumer goods, foodstuffs, things of this kind. But there is this small group of people in Kiev.

They're propped up on the ground. because they still have the support of the very well-funded, very well-financed, ultra-nationalist brigades, Azov, Aydar, and all of those. They also have the support of the security services, the SBU, and people of that kind, which are now headed by apparently extremely ruthless people, who are, of course, themselves part of this structure. I think you've described the three factions absolutely accurately. It is basically now simply about money.

There is no ideological objective here. There's no conception of Ukraine sovereignty, independence from Russia, any of these things. As far as the internal group that is running Kiev is concerned, they are happy, provided the money keeps flowing. If the money stops, they will pack their backs and they will go. The ultra-nationalists, they will presumably want to stay, or at least some of them will. And there might one day be a reckoning between these two groups. But for the moment, the ultra-nationalists are helping to prop up the system,

as are some of the internal security agencies, the SBU especially. And that's what keeps the whole thing going. Would you say that? That's what Western taxpayers. That's what European tax money is now propping up in Ukraine. And most of it is propping up the Zelensky regime still. I mean, that's the dominant faction, right? And the nationalists.

the Bandarites are still behind the Zelensky regime. As long as the money can continue to float, as Aletsky, as long as he can go out and sell, which is what he does now, he just travels around and just looks for money. As long as he can continue to do this, they will continue to support him. Exactly. And he gives them a few little things, which are very shocking in the Russian world. But, I mean, make complete sense. And so, you know, he wants the support of Azov.

So he brings people like Connovalets and whatever it was, Melnake and reburries them in here. Shocking to Poland as well. Shocking to Poland as well. But, I mean, the fact of the matter is he needs Azov. He needs Aida. He needs the support of these people. So, as I say, he's tilting towards them. And at the same time, the European Union continues to back him.

They look the other way. For them, keeping project Ukraine up and running and going is obviously now their major imperative. You could almost say that it is not just their major imperative, but it has now become almost their justification for being. Yeah. How is Poland going to deal with these guys that you see these guys that you see Zelensky appease and. because he needs their backing. I just wonder when all is said and done, Poland may get to the, may have to deal with the worst of it. Well, indeed, absolutely. Now, Poland is a very interesting, very complex society.

As I've argued in many places and many times, it is very far from being the monolith that people assume. So there are nationalist-minded Poles who are absolutely furious about this, who are disgusted with Project Ukraine, who understand fully that Poland is being used, who see this is extremely dangerous. I think that summarizes quite well, by the way, the attitude of someone like Novrovsky, the Polish president, but there are many other people in the political system in Poland who are of those views also. Then there is Donald Tusk and the Europeans.

Donald Tusk is much more part of the European system than someone who has deep roots inside Poland or within Poland, Polish society. He wants to keep Project Ukraine going because, as I said, that's part of what he is. He's part of that whole setup for whom maintaining Project Ukraine is the overriding the number one, the first priority. And he, of course, is the Prime Minister, and he still has a degree of, you know, all the degrees of power that comes from that. And the European Union backs him. And then there are many, many other people in Poland of all kinds of different views. There's a very divided left, some of that left, probably the dominant part of that left, is also Europeanist and supports European policies. but there is what you might call the remnants of the old left, which does still exist,

and which is also deeply hostile to project Ukraine. So what this is doing is it's intensifying divisions within Polish society as well. Even for someone like Tusk, these burials and commemorations of these terrible people that are taking place in Ukraine, are something that they find extraordinarily difficult to justify. And you get a sense all the time that he in particular wants to change the subject. And when it comes to Ukraine, talk about something else. Russian drones, Russian interference in Polish politics, things of that kind.

Yeah. Tosk is spiraling. He's trying to spin this thing. Absolutely. But he can't. He knows he can't spin it. It's impossible to spin. What is Russia's aim in all of this? What are they looking to do now? I mean, they're

dismantling the Ukraine economy step by step, taking it apart. The advance continues on the front lines, I believe, according to whatever battle plans, yet awesome often the general staff have worked out. Yes. Putin is talking about the Russian economy. He gave a speech yesterday about the state of the Russian economy, which was interesting. You do have some rumors about the firing of a chief central banker in Russia. I don't know if you've heard about those. Yes, yes. That firing. And some of the collective West media is trying to say that this is proof that the Russian economy is not doing well. Yeah. Yeah. What are your thoughts on everything that's happening in Russia. And what is, what do you think the Kremlin is now,

is now looking to do with regards to the conflict? I mean, if I can talk about the fiery, the person they're talking about is a man called Claire Patch, whom I remember quite well. He was very, very important in Russian economic policy in the first decade of Putin's role. And he was always understood to be very, very much at the very, very liberal end of Russian politics and government policy and economics. He was absolutely someone who was devoted to supporting Russia's integration with the West. And he actually left government service in 2014. And then he went to work for a big state corporation. I forget which one. And fairly recently, he made these comments at a meeting with other business people. They were reported inevitably. And the entity that he worked for

simply said, you know, this isn't what we believe. And they sacked him. And his basic point was Russia will survive. Russia's economy is not going to get into, it is not going to collapse or anything like that. But social tensions are growing and Russia is falling behind technologically because it is not accessing technological and scientific flows from the West. Very much the kind of narrative that I remember you used to hear from people like him in the first decade, as I said, of Putin's rule when people like that were very dominant.

I think this is a wrong diagnosis entirely. I think that the facts tell a completely different story. If you compare technological sophistication within society in Russia with that of Europe, I would say the Russians are actually ahead now, not falling behind. But anyway, I don't think there's anything very much to this. It's a story that the media in the West has built up and, you know, because they're always looking for some evidence that there is some major crisis on the horizon in Russia. We've debated this many times.

In fact, what has happened is that Nubulina at the central bank has, in fact, slightly relaxed monetary policy over the last few weeks. So the result has been a return, not a very strong return, but definitely a return to growth. And this meeting that Putin chaired and where he made the speech is an interesting one, charting further developments in the Russian economy. but I think it's one that we can talk about in a different program. It requires an awful lot more discussion than I've prepared to do here. Now, just real quick, did anything from Putin's statements about the economy to surprise you? Or was everything pretty much in mind? No, they didn't surprise me, but I will say this, and this is our look focusing on the politics of this.

And in fact, going back to the issue of Claire Pudge, it talks about sovereignty. It talks about a major investment program in order basically to orient Russia, reorient Russia, even further from the West. It's now entirely about pursuing economic and technological sovereignty. So, you know, building chip industries, developing domestic AI. moving forward with the aerospace industries, which have been receiving a lot of money, that kind of thing. So Putin clearly doesn't expect sanctions to be lifted. He says, let's forget about sanctions.

Let's make our economy less export-oriented. Let's develop it internally around Russian industries. and Russian consumers. So it's a fairly significant and fairly big shift in economic direction. And as far as I can see all the big people, the people that really matter in the economy today, Siluanov, Nabilina, all of them. They were all there. And as far as I can tell, they are basically backing this project. So anyway, it's a big one. It's a long, complicated thing. But you asked me about what is the Russian plan for Ukraine. And this is the big uncertainty. This is, to my mind, what is now hanging over this whole situation, because anybody objectively can see that the Russians have won

the war militarily. As you pointed out in several programs, they've defeated the Ukrainian army, which is falling apart. Ukraine's economy is falling apart. They have total dominance over the sky, and that is likely to be to increase. Ukrainian attacks on inside Russia, which Putin discussed at this meeting do hurt and do cause damage, but they're not affecting the economy overall. There was a report in the Guardian in Britain that the Russian economy now depends on imported gasoline. The whole story was based on the fact that a single tanker with gasoline arrived in Russia from India, and we discussed the circumstances in which that happened weeks ago. So the Russians have won the economic war and the war in the sky, and they're winning the war on the battlefields.

But what are they going to do? What is their ultimate plan for Ukraine? Are they going to stop at Dombas and Zaporosia and Herzon and leave this profoundly dysfunctional and ultimately extremely dangerous government still in power in Kiev? I can't believe that. I find that impossible to believe myself. Are they going to extend the war further to include more places? Are they going to go for Odessa? I think that personally is a certainty.

But they've not formally made that announcement. Are they going to go for Adessa? Are they going to go for Kiev? Are they going to take over the whole of left bank, Ukraine, In other words, Ukraine east of the Dnieper. And if they do, what are they going to do about Western Ukraine? I mean, there are lots of uncertainties about all of this. Now, there are suggestions that Putin is going to make a very, very big speech in a short time

and that there will be some important announcements made over the course of it, which are important for the West itself. This is a speech which, as I understand it, will be mostly is billed as being addressed to the Asians, to the Asian economies, to the new countries which Russia today sees as his economic partners. But as I said, it does seem as if there will be major announcements. Will those announcements be purely economic in nature? or will they be announcements that tell us what is going on, what the plan is for Ukraine? And here I'm going to say, I suspect that the Russians themselves are still trying to work this out. You have people like Medvedev who is clearly pushing for the occupation of the entirety of Ukraine.

He definitely, I mean, he made this absolutely clear. definitely supports regime change in Kiev. But I think Medvedev's objective is eastern Ukraine goes to Russia, southern Ukraine, the Black Sea coast goes to Russia, Odessa, of course, all of Kharkov, all of these places become Russian. There's a rump Ukrainian state run by a pro-Russian government in Kiev, but that is only a transition. until the whole of Ukraine is ultimately reunited to Russia. That's, I think, in summary, Medvedev's desire. That's the objective that he is pushing for.

What Putin himself thinks, I'm not sure, whether there are some people in the economics ministries who say, let's stop at Dombas and Zaporosia, and her son and see whether we can still do a deal with the Americans, whether that lobby is still there and is still influential? I don't know. I would be surprised, actually, if there was no one in Russia arguing that. I guess that there are some people who are. And there may be all kinds of things in between. And as we know, one thing that Putin has been trying to do is he's been trying to get the Poles to relieve him of the problem of Western Ukraine by taking it over for

him. In other words, he's been inviting the Poles and the Romanians and the Hungarians to seize those parts of Western Ukraine, which Stalin annexed after the end of the Second World War. He says they are their historic territories. Now, I have to say that kind of of language from Putin suggests to me that he is indeed thinking of most of core Ukraine being reabsorbed to Russia, a return, if you like, to the frontiers of 1944, the time, or Russia, I'm sorry, 1939, the original Tsarist, frontiers, which I think Putin thinks it was a mistake for Stalin and the Soviets to move beyond. Anyway, we'll see.

I mean, as I said, it's very complicated. But the Russians so far have not given us any clear understanding of what they're planning. And of course, in some respects, it's very complicated because Western Ukraine is a nationalist area, as we know, and the Russians, if they were to go there, would probably encounter a lot of resistance. But with the present state of Ukraine, with much of the population having left, with most of the people, apparently who are still there now of pension age, with the economy in a state of collapse, once the army is defeated, and once Kiev,

falls, what serious resistance, organized resistance, realistically is they going to be? Yeah. All right. Demographic collapse in Ukraine over the past 30 years, actually. Absolutely. It's not a new phenomenon. Yeah. No.

They used to have 50 million population around there. And now some reports have it at like 25, if that. Yeah. Yes. So we'll see how everything works out. Definitely a Russia that is, that is dismantling. the economy of Ukraine at the moment. Absolutely.

Absolutely. We're doing it very effectively, gradually, but effectively. All right, we will end the video there, the derand.com. We're on next run, remember, we're on Telegram. We are also on substack. Go to Dhradshop, pick up some merch, those links in the description box down below.

Take care.