The Duran Podcast - MBS positions himself as leader of Arab world

Episode Date: November 16, 2023

MBS positions himself as leader of Arab world

All right, Alexander, let's do a breakdown of the Arab summit, this emergency summit that took place in Saudi Arabia, which saw meetings between Saudi Arabia, MBS, Assad, Egypt, Iran, Raisi, a very, a lot of countries at this summit. obviously the topic was the bombing of Gaza and the war that is unfolding in not only Israel, but I mean we're seeing it, we're seeing the dangers of it expanding to engulf the entire Middle East. So let's break down what happened at this summit because there are some analysts who are saying this summit was, was a submit which showed unity amongst the Arab and the Muslim world, but there are other analysts who say that this summit fell way short of providing the necessary help and moving closer to a ceasefire, which is what is needed right now in Gaza. What are your thoughts on this

summit? I think what it shows is the increasing political sophistication. of the countries in the Middle East. That's not always been there up to now. I mean, you know, in the past, you've had some very, you know, unstable people, to put it mildly, running Middle Eastern countries and saying things which weren't really thought out well and getting themselves into all kinds of difficult situations.

This summit, which was enormous, and which wasn't confined just to the Arab states, It brought together many, many Muslim countries from around the world. Well, first of all, it brought together everybody. I mean, as you rightly said, MBS convened it. He chaired it. He did the opening speech. He was there.

So was Erdogan from Turkey. So was Raizi from Iran. So was Assad from Syria. So was Al-Sisi from Egypt. So was the king of Georgia. and the Emir of Qatar, Qatar, of course, the country with which historically Saudi Arabia has not always had particularly friendly terms. So they all came together at this meeting and they all spoke.

And yes, there were variations. I mean, the Iranians, as one might expect, were demanding more than I think they remotely expected that they would get. but more than the words that the Iranians made is the actual pictures. And you see the photo of Raizi and MBS sitting together. They have this one-to-one meeting. They're smiling with each other. They look incredibly relaxed. They look incredibly friendly.

Well, you know, a year ago, a picture like that would have been inconceivable. So what is happening as a... What this summit meeting showed us is two things. Firstly, these countries are getting much more sophisticated. They are understanding how to conduct diplomacy in a much more intelligent way. And we're going to come to that in a moment. But the other thing they're doing is that they're coming together and they're coming up with united responses.

And they are, there is in other words, this crisis is acting, rather like the Ukrainian crisis, crisis has been acting, it is acting as a catalyst which is bringing together Middle Eastern countries, which formerly were opposed to each other, and they're doing so in a way that shows that they're now all of them thinking increasingly of a Middle East without the United States. And that for me was the single most important fact about the summit. They're coming to agreements, they're coming together about united positions, and they're doing so without any real expectation that the United States will play any substantial role in the Middle East, in the future.

So that was the first thing I took from this. The other thing that you have to see is when you actually go to the statement that they put together, it was a very, very interesting statement because if you had been listening, you've been listening to what we on the Duran had been saying ever since this crisis began, there was nothing there that would have surprised you. If, of course, you're expecting, you know,

oil embargoes and arms supplies and threats of military action, well, we've always discounted the probability that these countries would go down that route. But if you think of them taking steps, legal steps, through the United Nations, through potentially the international criminal courts,

through agencies like that, then that is exactly the route that they have followed. And clearly what's being prepared now is that they're preparing the ground for a potential, General Assembly or Security Council resolution. They spoke about both the General Assembly and the Security Council in this statement. They're working towards getting the International Criminal Court to issue indictments and arrest warrants. And as we've discussed in various

programmes, some incredibly reckless comments made by some people in Israel have made that more likely. I'm not going to say it's going to happen, but it's made it a lot more likely. And they're also coming forward now with this idea of an international peace conference. Now, to my knowledge, the first person who floated that idea was Wang Yi, the Chinese foreign minister. But it is now being adopted formally by all of the Middle Eastern countries. They say we want an international peace conference to try to resolve this crisis on a permanent and sustainable basis. They're of course still talking about the two-state solution

because they say that is what international law requires, but they're talking about an international peace conference. In other words, they do not want the United States any longer to take poll position in mediating efforts in the Middle East. They have seen the Biden administration in action, and they've given up on it. So a post-America Middle East, that is what we're going towards. All right.

So before we talk about the escalation that is happening in the Middle East with the skirmishes and the exchanges of missiles and drones and stuff like that with U.S. air bases and various militias. I think we need to discuss this because every day it seems. like we're getting these types of exchanges happening and eventually something's going to trigger a wider intervention from the U.S. and potentially a wider war. I just want to ask you one question about, one question and comment about MBS and his role in all of this, because a lot of people talk about Erdogan as trying to position. himself as the leader of, say, the Islamic world. But it seems like MBS is really stepping up in a big way, or is it just me? It just seems like MBS has a better understanding of diplomacy,

but more important than that, it seems like MBS has a very good understanding of how to use the current institutions that are available to him to get to some sort of, of, end game or to get to where he wants to go. I don't know. I'm just getting the impression that there's a lot of focus out there, D'Aouad, because he talks a lot. I mean, DeWa Duon says a lot of stuff. But MBS seems to be putting things in action. Yeah, I'm not sure. I just want to ask you your thoughts there. No, I completely agree. And can I just say, you know, I've said this before and I'm going to say it again. I mean, MBS is someone I got completely wrong. When he first appeared on the scene, I don't know who he was.

Everything I've seen about him, I didn't particularly take to. I thought he was going to run things into the ground and cause them all to fall apart. He has proved to be an extremely intelligent and sophisticated operator. He made some mistakes at the beginning, but he's clearly learnt his way, and it's also increasingly clear to me, by the way, that he has a solid position in Saudi Arabia itself. So, you know, he's learned, he's gained experience, and he's become, well, something overstatement.

And I agree, I think that, you know, in any contest between MBS and Erdogan, and bear in mind that MBS and Erdogan are two people who also have in the past not got on at all well. But anyway, MBS is now clearly positioning himself very effectively as the leader of the Sunni Middle East and of the Arab world. And he has, to a great extent, managed to outflank Erdogan,

who talks a lot, as you said, but does actually very little. It's MBS who's coming up with these ideas, pushing for the General Assembly, pushing to the United Nations, seeing the International Peace Conference, perhaps potentially referrals to the international criminal court, that kind of thing.

Erdogan, by contrast, has never come up with any one of these ideas. And the very interesting thing that's now starting to happen is that even as Erdogan, sorry, even as MBS positions himself as the leader of the Sunni, Arab and Muslim worlds, he is now gradually starting to forge this. It's even beginning to look like, not maybe an alliance, but a partnership with the leaders of Shia Islam, who are of course

the Iranians. And that's why this picture of MBS and Raizi looking so friendly together and apparently working alongside each other, working together and working so successfully. It's really very interesting. I mean, Envious is clearly someone to watch. He's clearly somebody who's still got a lot ahead of him and going to do. And it may be that, you know, to bring it up again, the Khashoggi affair was a shock

and that he became a much more serious person afterwards, just saying. Okay, so this is a good way to talk about Iran and the possible widening out of this conflict. A lot of statements made towards Hezbollah. I'm sure that the United States saw those photos of MBS and Raizian, I'm sure they freaked out, especially the neocons. I'm positive. The neocons absolutely freaked out at those images. So the prospects of a possible widening out of this conflict. Of course, if you bring Hezbollah into this conflict or if Hezbollah gets sucked into this conflict, that goes without saying that you're looking at Iran as well.

Yeah, absolutely. The dangers of an escalation are getting greater all the time. Now, we have this enormous American fleet. We've talked about this already in the Eastern Mediterranean. We've now got this nuclear-powered cruise missile submarine, in the Red Sea. We've got fighter jets being deployed, marine forces being deployed, not in huge numbers, but they are there. We've got, you know, surface-to-air missiles, lots of rumours about special forces being deployed from the US across the Middle East, even in Israel itself, not always easy to get a clear picture about all of this. But what is happening is that the fighting between the US,

and various Arab militias. Now, the US always implies that these are sheer militias and talks about them as proxies from of Iran, but I understand that some Sunni militias, especially in Syria, have also been involved. Anyway, fighting is intensifying. And there's lots of attacks now, apparently going on, all the, every day on American bases,

across the Middle East in Syria and in, Iraq and the US is now taking increasingly strong countermeasures and they've launched air strikes and missile strikes on what they say are bases firstly of these militias but most recently they said that they've attacked a facility of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps in Syria now of course that means in effect that the US is also attacking a element of Iran's armed forces, its official armed forces. So all it would take is some event which might lead to an uncontrolled escalation and a potential attack on Iran. And you mentioned Hezbollah in Lebanon.

Hassan Nasrallah, who is its leader, has been, he's now made two speeches, which seem to me to be essentially attempts to keep Hezbollah itself disciplined and under control and to respond to the intense pressure that he is under to sort of launch Hezbollah into some kind of offensive against Israel. he clearly has been told by the Iranians, under no circumstances do that. I get the sense that he doesn't want to do that himself, but he's under huge pressure to do this. This fighting with the Americans is increasing the potential of that happening.

And unfortunately, and very worryingly, I was reading reports yesterday, and these are more rumors than reports, but they might be true. and they seem to originate from Israel itself. There's now arguments and divisions about this within the Israeli cabinet. There's been intensified exchanges of fire between Hezbollah and the Israeli military along the Lebanese-Israeli border. And apparently some of the hardliners in the cabinet, or supposedly, should we say supposedly rather than apparently,

supposedly some of the hardliners in the Israeli cabinet are also pressing for an escalation against Hezbollah. And it is Netanyahu who is trying to hold this back. And again, one suspects that he's been urged by, you know, wiser people in the United States to try to avoid this. And perhaps he's an experienced person, political leader. He probably understands himself what a very dangerous thing that would be. But we could see that both on the Israeli side and the Hezbollah side,

it increasingly looks as if they're coming under pressure from their hardliners and their radicals. And this enormous military deployment by the US in the Middle East, the presence of all these US troops in the Middle East, is acting as an, both as a pre-tenth, to escalate attacks on the US and as an opportunity for those in the US and Israel who want an attack on Iran and you're absolutely right by the same attack on

Hezbollah would ultimately translate into an attack on Iran it's an opportunity for them also to do that very thing Now, if that happens, if we get into a situation where the United States is in a conflict, a direct military conflict with Iran, then we are in a very, very dangerous place indeed. I mean, then the situation becomes so dangerous that it's very difficult to predict outcomes. Yeah, well, that's why those military assets are there. they're there for that reason that you stated in order to try and take the world closer to what would be a catastrophic war. You don't put that much military muscle in one very small area. Well, correct.

To pick a fight. I completely agree. And I have to say for me, the single deployment, which in effect proves that, is that. this deployment of this extremely powerful cruise missile submarine to the Red Sea. Now, that is exactly the kind of submarine weapon system that you would deploy if you were planning an attack on Iran. And sure enough, it's there. So, I mean, clearly someone is thinking along those lines.

Now, of course, they would say it's intended as a warning to Iran. But of course, a warning like that is more likely to seem like a provocation by the Iranians. And it is inevitable that the Iranians, who must be aware of the existence of this submarine, are now taking countermeasures of their own, deploying missiles to their bases, alerting their troops, preparing their defences, and preparing their own mechanisms of attack. So this deployment, it's not a warning to Iran. It's a threat to Iran and a threat the Iranians are going to take very seriously

and which also suggests to me that someone in Washington has plans or has intentions which one earnestly hopes are never fulfilled. Yeah. You put the military there, that much military there to use it. That's where my mind goes. Well, exactly. That's scary about this situation. That is exactly.

I mean, this is far too big a force if your intention was simply to deter. Far too big a force for that. Yeah, let me ask you a final. question and we'll wrap the video up. Going back to the Arab summit and what they're looking to do as far as next steps with what is happening in Gaza, what do you make of the suggestions, the rumors, I think very confirmed rumors, about Tony Blair getting involved on Netanyahu's team. they say it's for humanitarian coordination reasons. We know that's ridiculous.

Is it because Tony Blair has had meetings with, I mean, he has relationships with Erdogan and MBS doing his various consulting for the region that he's done over the past 15, 20 years? Is his purpose to go there and to try and influence them in certain directions, perhaps persuade them to not go forward with various prosecutions or UN initiatives. I don't know. I mean, what do you think is the purpose of the Tony Blair factor? Well, I'm sure that is partly his purpose. Of course, his primary purpose is to get more money because that's what Tony Blair is primarily about nowadays. But and attention. He always wants to insert himself into any way of these things. I mean, he's convinced that he's, you know, the person who understands the Middle East best and he's this

great genius of diplomacy. So I mean, you know, give that to him. He probably does think that also. But I mean, he has, as prime minister, he tilted very strongly towards Israel. He's strongly sympathetic to Israel. And he has had these connections in the past with MBS and Erdogan and all of these people. And he probably does think at some level that maybe if he goes to Israel, and he joins Netanyahu's team,

and Netanyahu, of course, isn't able at the moment to talk to MBS and isn't able at the moment to talk to Erdogan. Diplomatic connections have all been all but collapsed between Israel and Turkey, and have all but collapsed between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Of course, in that case, they were never official anyway. But anyway, it might be that Netanyahu thinks

that, you know, Tony Blair would be, he's best interlocutor. I have to say, if that's what Netanyahu thinks, then Netanyahu is losing his grip, because the last person he wants to send on diplomatic missions across the Middle East is Tony Blair. I mean, he is such damaged goods, frankly. I mean, Erdogan and MBS and the Saudis

have been paying him money because they think he's got influence in Britain, which he does, by the way. They're not interested in having him operating as a diplomat in the Middle East. He is, if he thinks that, he has completely misunderstood why they're funding him. All right. An interesting side story to everything that's going on is the reemergence of Tony Blair. Not that he ever went away. You know, you never went away.

You know, and it's interesting fact. you know, when there's a wall going on, especially in the Middle East, who appears like, you know, the vulture floating over the scene? Well, Tony Blair, it sounds surprising, perhaps. Yeah, all right, the durand.boggles.com. We are on Rumble odyssey, bitch shoot, telegram, rockfin, and Twitter X, and go to the Duran shop, 20% off. Use the code, the Duran 20.

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