The Duran Podcast - MERZ gambles U.S. Taurus missile strikes on RUSSIA

Episode Date: May 27, 2025

MERZ gambles U.S. Taurus missile strikes on RUSSIA

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the announcement from German Chancellor Mertz that long-range missiles have now been approved by Germany, the UK, France, and he said even the U.S. Or at least, or he said the restrictions on long-range missile strikes into Russian territory has been lifted. But this is not really new news from Mertz. He's playing games and this was a walkback, I believe, by the vice chancellor. Maybe even Mertz is now walking this back. Anyway, get into this announcement from Mertz. And why do you think Mertz is making these statements? What's the reason for him making these statements?

He surely knows that what he announced is nothing new. So why is he making these announcements? I mean, what he is referencing is the decision that the Biden administration took last year and which became effective in November to authorise deep strikes into Russia. That's clearly what he's talking about. And in the typically incompetent way that he does, he took that announcement to make it appear as if the United States had suddenly turned round and endorsed the supply of tourist missiles by Germany to Ukraine,

which I think was not strictly true. Now, I get to say this. I think the tourist missiles are already in Ukraine. I think as soon as Mertz became Chancellor, he probably transferred those tourist missiles to Ukraine. There are probably still problems getting those tourist missiles operated, Because, firstly, you need the Germans themselves there to operate them. And I suspect that they require American proprietary software and information.

And the United States might be reluctant to provide that. And I suspect the- The US has said as much, actually, Alexander, that they have US components and they need US approval. Exactly. They've said this statement already. Exactly. So I think what Mets might be trying to do with this announcement is put pressure on Donald Trump to authorize the use of these missiles against targets in Russia.

But again, he's done it in a way that is manipulative and I get to say it dishonest. And, you know, that might not go down at all well with Donald Trump and with some of the people in Washington. My own personal view is that soon or later we are going to see these tourist missiles. used in some way. I think there is now huge pressure across the system to try to get tourists missiles used, to try to get sanctions of some kind imposed by the United States and the Europeans against Russia. I understand that having now just enacted the 17th sanctions package, Ossula is now working on the 18th, and she's already talking about.

a 19th sanctions package beyond the 17th and 18th that she's now preparing. So the reason for all of this, this huge cluster of activity, these comments from maths and people like this, is that two things have happened over the last couple of weeks. The first is that they've now finally understood that all of those attempts to bully the Russians into a ceasefire have so far not worked, and that the Russians are not interested in a ceasefire, and they're alarmed about the fact that Donald Trump himself seems to understand that there isn't going to be a ceasefire. And they need the ceasefire because they know that Ukraine is losing the war on the battlefronts. And the other thing I think they've gradually

come to realize is that there's going to be a big Russian offensive in a few weeks. time and without the ceasefire, there is a real possibility that Ukraine might lose. So, Mertz is making these comments and it is, in my opinion, partly a reflection of panic. Ursula is talking about 18th and 19 sanctions packages. Again, it's a reflection of panic. The Wall Street Journal is talking about Trump being looking to entitened sanctions on Russia over the course of this week, this coming week. All of this tells us that there is a campaign to try to get Trump once again to reverse course on Russia

to try to tighten things up on Russia because they realize that they're losing the war. It's as simple as this. Yeah, agreed. The audio leak, remember that from two years ago with the German military officials talking about the tourists and how they were. were planning to use or how the Ukrainians were thinking of using long-range missiles like

the Taurus to take out the Kerch Bridge. Remember that audio leak? Absolutely. The officials, the German officials, they said that this would need German military personnel on the ground in Ukraine. There would be no way that this would be done by Ukraine military. would absolutely have to be done by German military in Ukraine, pushing the button to fire those missiles into Russia. The United States, they have come out and said that the tourist missiles need

U.S. approval to go to Ukraine because you're dealing with U.S. components and U.S. parts. and Russian President Vladimir Putin has also said he's on the record saying that long-range missile strikes into Russia are being done or have to be done with the targeting and the coordination of the United States and of NATO. There's no way that attacks into Russian territory can be done by the Ukraine alone. Russia last year, after Biden announced the restrictions of lifting the restrictions on long-range missile strikes into Russia, Russia changed its nuclear doctrine as well. And they put in their doctrine that a non-nuclear country launching long-range missiles into Russia can be seen as a nuclear attack if it is done jointly with. another nuclear country, France, the UK, are nuclear powers. Germany may not be, but NATO, the United States, France, the UK. If those missiles are fired into Russia, Russia can now say that this is a joint attack with a nuclear power involved. The tourist missiles have a range,

I believe, of up to 1,000 miles, 500 to 1,000 miles. Correct me if I'm wrong there. But they can definitely hit deep inside of Russia, and they can definitely hit deep inside of Russia, can absolutely hit Moscow. What are your thoughts if a tourist missile is launched into Russia? I agree with you that the missiles are probably in Ukraine. They just need to get through all of the red tape, the bureaucracy. They need to get the OK from the United States. They need to get the targeting from the U.S. and NATO.

They have to do a lot of things, Germany. They have to get the German personnel. The German personnel probably already there, but that's get the German personnel. and place. Everything needs to be done in order to finally press the bud in and launch the missiles into Russian territory. What does Russia do? Well, I think the first thing to say is that we've had actually already deep missile strikes into Russia. I mean, they would, they began in November. They were launched at various targets along in Western Russia. They proved completely ineffective. So, I mean, this is, there's no fundamental reason I could see.

Can you comment on a deeper? Yeah, even deeper. I mean, by now. Say, heading towards, heading towards Moscow. We have drones. We have drones every day trying to hit Moscow. They've been trying to hit targets in Moscow with drones and they've been completely unsuccessful in doing this.

I mean, we've had, you know, vast numbers of drones. I suspect, by the way, again, going back to the question of panic, this is another fact because undoubtedly, the Western powers, Western governments, European governments, the U.S. government under Biden, have provided Ukraine with massive assistance to help it carry out this drone offensive. They will have provided technology. They provided input. They have probably provided. Well, they had a command center in Germany. The New York Times. Exactly. And it hasn't worked because the Russian air defenses have successfully handled the problem with.

with the drones. And I think this is, I mean, much more than the effect of the Russian strikes on Kiev, which undoubtedly are having an effect, I think another factor for the alarm and dismay and panic is because it's suddenly coming to be understood that these Ukrainian drone attacks in which a huge amount was invested. In fact, I can remember back in the summer people were saying, you know, the Ukrainians are going to be able to do all of this way, all of these drones and that's going to be a major game-changer. Again, I think there's alarm and dismay about the fact that, you know, this isn't working. So again, we get this pattern of demanding further escalation. Now, by now, I think the Russian air defenses around Moscow have probably become very powerful.

The Russians probably expect these missiles to come. They were able to shoot down the great majority of attackem's missiles that were launched against Western Russia, they were able to shoot down the great majority of storm shadows. Apparently, the storm shadows bear some resemblance in the way they operate to the tourist missiles. And on top of all of that, I understand that though the stockpile of tourist missiles runs to about 800, only around 200 at the moment are usable. So, you know, they can probably refurbish some of the others. But, you know, but, you know, but it's going to be very difficult to maintain, sustain a long-term offensive on Russia. So I'm going to tell you what I think.

I think that this is a classic example of a person who's losing on the roulette tables and just goes on raising his bids, putting more and more money on particular numbers, hoping that next time you spin the roulette wheel, you're going to find that the outcome is going to be different. I think the Russian air defences will cope with this, but at the same time, the risk is that you could end up with bankruptcy. You might actually hit something important in Russia. You might hit a location where there are Russians in large numbers, and this will result in many people being killed and dying, and that could create a major political crisis in Russia, but it It will not be a crisis to end the war. It would be a demand for deeper and stronger retaliation.

So it shows you the extent to which Western leaders have become both desperate and are now gambling and taking ever wilder and more reckless risks, despite warnings that they already have, that, you know, the Russians will regard these kind of attacks upon themselves. not as attacks by Ukraine, but as attacks by Germany if, as I said, tourist missiles get through and reach Moscow, which is the reason why Olaf Schultz didn't want to do it, by the way. Well, that's my question to you. What if one of the tourist missiles manages to get through? I mean, the storm shadows did do considerable damage in the beginning, and then Russia got on top of it. But my understanding of the tourist missile, once again, correct me if I'm wrong

about this, obviously the range has a lot more range so it can travel deeper into Russia. I mean, Mertz even said that the purpose of the tourist missiles is to hit the hinterland, he even said it, to hit Russia's hinterland. That was his statement. So you have a longer range and you have a nuclear capable warhead. Is that correct? Oh, yeah, absolutely. All right. Okay. So what does that mean for Russia's nuclear doctrine? I mean, one of the arguments against, for example, the Tomahawk, which Ukraine requested at a time, they were pressing the U.S. to hand over the tomahawks is that even Biden, even Biden had the sense. The Biden administration had the sense to say no, because a Tackham's is one thing. But a Tomahawk going into the Russian Federation, even if it wasn't. nuclear, the Tomahawk, the Russians would have to assume that this could be a nuclear strike and they would retaliate. So even the Biden administration said right away, no, we're not going to hand over Tomahawk. So, I mean, if a tourist missile is launched into Russia, does Russia assume

that this could be nuclear? It's 99% it's not. But you have a doctrine in place. and you just can't allow missiles with a thousand mile range to be launched into the Russian Federation. You made the point, what if this tourist does hit a target, knowing that Germany, German military personnel were actually there pressing the butt in and launching this missile? And furthermore, can you answer the question, what does this mean for the U.S.-Russia relations? because these missiles need Russia targeting and they need U.S. targeting and they needed U.S. approval. So just answer all of these things, maybe in a little more detail because I think the attack the stormshows and scalps were one type of missile. I think this is the Taurus missile, while Russia would get on top of it, and I agree, I've read

about 150 tourists would actually be delivered to Ukraine. and it would not change one bit the trajectory of the war. But the tourist does seem to be a bit different, just seems to be very different and seems to be an escalatory, meant to be an escalatory weapon. It is a massively escalatory step. I mean, you start providing, you start deploying and using from the territory of Ukraine a missile that can reach Moscow, then of course you are taking this a whole massive step further

and beyond what we've seen before. Now, if I can take your questions backwards, I mean, one of the primary purposes of doing this and trying to get the Americans to agree to this is precisely in order to destroy the whole process of Roprashmore between the United States and Russia. the whole process of normalization of relations between the United States and Russia. The Russians have said as much today, by the way, they've said that this is the purpose of this, and that is why they're actually calling for an urgent meeting of the UN Security Council in order to discuss it for that very reason, because I said this is intended to jeopardize

all of the moves that Donald Trump initiated as soon as he became president to restart a dialogue with Russia, because the Russians will say, yes, the Germans are heavily involved, but the Americans are obviously also involved, and the Americans are involved in attacking Moscow, and that is obviously the purpose of this. And therefore, it is very difficult. In fact, it might arguably be impossible for Russia to continue. on this process of normalizing relations with the United States, which is exactly what the Europeans at this time want to achieve. Now, the Russians have said that if these sort of attacks do take

place, they reserve the right to themselves to conduct retaliatory attacks on the European countries that are involved in these kind of operations. And, you know, they've never taken that away. And it seems that from about midsummer, missiles like the Eresnik will begin to become available in quantities and could be used. And they absolutely do have the target, the range to strike targets in Germany and do things as that kind. So, I mean, you know, possibly an attack on the Rheinmetel facilities, just to say, I'm not want to go into this in detail, but I mean, you know, that those possibilities are there, and there isn't a potential Western counter to these. The West doesn't have the ability, the force, the means to defend against missiles like the

irashton. Now, I think that Putin himself and the people around him will probably not want to go that far. They will probably say to themselves, look, we managed to come. with every other missile that the West has launched against us. We can counter the Taurus missile as well. It has a longer range. It has different capabilities. Germany itself does not have nuclear weapons. Of course, other countries in NATO, France, Britain, the United States do. But it would take a time for these nuclear weapons, these warheads, to be designed to operate with the Taurus. missile. So it takes us roughly six weeks to get on top and to understand how these missiles work,

and we will be able to get on top of the tourists. We mustn't be frightened or intimidated by it. And we're winning the war, and we've got a big offensive coming. And if we conduct this offensive successfully and well, 150 missiles isn't going to change the trajectory of the war. So let's stick with that. And up to now, Putin has been able to win these arguments in Moscow. But this is a terrifying gamble. And nobody should be under any illusions about this. A terrifying gamble of a kind that would have been unthinkable during the Cold War.

And, you know, the point may come when the Russians say, Or people in Russia say to Putin, look, this has gone far enough. We must start retaliating harder against the Europeans, especially the Europeans, because every message we're giving is simply not getting through. Yeah, that was going to be my follow-up question to you, is what happens when that first missile, if, if that first missile is fired into Russian territory. And the Russians do get on top of it. They absolutely will get on top of it.

We know this, that they will get on top of it. But what does it mean for Putin and his administration? What will people say? What will they think? What will the hardliner say? What will they tell Putin? We dealt with the attack. We dealt with the scalp.

We dealt with the storm shadow. But this is too far. We need to do something. Is that what they're going to say? I mean, he's been, he's been, very restrained. Everyone knows this. Everyone knows that Putin has fought a very restraint, a special military operation.

He has fought a very restrained conflict. What happens? Does this finally push the Putin administration to reclassify what's happening in Ukraine? Well, it might very well do. I mean, it starts something else, of course. And this is another thing to say, which is that one of the reasons, why Russia launched the special military operation in the first place is to prevent Western missiles from being deployed in Ukraine, Western missiles with nuclear warheads that might potentially

reach Moscow. So Metz is about perhaps to provide the Russians with proof that the West really does have plans to base nuclear-capable missiles in Ukraine. Ukraine with the range to reach Moscow. So at that point, and this might indeed be what the Russians will actually do, and it might explain a very, very extraordinary map that Dimitri Medvedev has published, which shows the whole of Ukraine as being a demilitarized zone, basically essentially controlled by Russia. Perhaps it might cause the Russians to say, look, it's now absolutely clear what West's intentions are. They are going to, at some point, install missiles in Ukraine. We must therefore press forward and upgrade the special military operation into a war. Remember Putin

used the word war for the first time? By the way, I checked. It is the first time that he has used the word war. This is in the comments that he made on the 11th of May. So, upgraded. The late night, the late night comes before the bilateral talk. The late night to a clock statement, the one which he was reading from notes. So this is the point where we have to upgrade it to a war and aim not just for the achievement of the objectives of the special military operation, but all out victory in Ukraine. that is a more realistic Russian response than, you know, launching strikes into Germany itself,

which would be, well, I mean, I don't even want to speculate what that might result in, the effect that that might have. If one missile is fired into the Russian Federation, is that effectively the end of U.S. Russia reproshman? I think it would be very difficult to keep the momentum going. to be honest. And I think that that's something that Donald Trump and his officials need to understand. I think that any attempt first to negotiate an improvement in relations between the United States and Russia, to try to distance Russia from China in even the most, you know, minimal ways. I mean, all of that, all of that is out of the window at that point.

Just to end the video, I think the best way to summarize what's happened with this announcement from Mertz is that he's bluffing in order to derail U.S., Russia negotiations, normalization. The danger is that his rhetoric, his bluff with lifting the restrictions on long-range missiles may actually turn out to lift the restrictions on long-range missiles, firing a long-range missile into the Russian Federation and causing all of this chaos. I mean, is that pretty much what's happening here? He's trying, first of all, I've come to the view. that in politics at least, Friedrich Marx is not a clever man. I think that he's absolutely somebody who goes along with mainstream opinion.

He reads all these endless commentaries that appear in the media. And by the way, the German media is on this, is absolutely, I mean, it's off the rails in terms of Ukraine. They're getting more and more panicky and alarmed about the direction of the Ukraine war. They're getting extremely panicky and alarmed. about the rapprochement with the United States. And so Mertz is trying to play a game, a game of gambling and bluff and all of that, which in which he's far over his head.

I mean, he just doesn't know what he's really doing. And which he has no ultimate control over. I mean, if he starts talking about lifting long range restrictions on missile strikes are against Russia. As nightfall as day, there will be demands that those missile strikes actually do start to take place. And when we get into that kind of situation, the crisis will move to an entirely different level and one which will not play out well for Europe or for Germany or for him personally

at all. All right. We will end the video there. Is there anything else you want to add to this? Well, I mean, I said that Merzsson is not a particularly clever man. Is there anybody in Europe who is? If any one of the leaders in Europe or any better? Orban, Fizzo?

Well, Orban, Fidz. But, you know, all the major European states. There you go. Stama, Macron, Mouts. I mean, they are all in this together. And it's not that they don't want to, you know, find an off-ramp. It's that they don't want to, you know, find an off-ramp. It's that they burn every off-rap that they're given.

They try and set them a light. It's as if they don't want to retreat. They want to go on escalating to the point of complete disaster. The issue is that the UK, France, and Germany, especially France, it seems, but also Germany. And then all of them, all three of them, the leadership they want. conflict with Russia. Yes, I know.

No. They need to ache for it. If they want war with Russia, if they actually want war with the worst most powerful nuclear country, then I mean, they're going about it in exactly the right way. They're trying to provoke a war with Russia drawing in the United States. I mean, that's, I mean, they want World War III. Now, it seems astonishing to say this, but that seems to be the way that they're behaving.

Of course, many of the people in their countries don't. In Germany, we see that Matsz's support is sinking, the IFTA is rising, we see the same in France, we see to some extent now the same in Britain. But that doesn't seem to deter them. They seem to be absolutely hell-bent on starting in all that conflict with Russia, regardless of the risks and of the dangers involved. And it is bizarre that they're doing it doing it in the way into the extent that they are. I suspect that it's some basic fundamental reason.

They still believe that the power of the United States is so great that if there is a war, they will win. Just a final quick question. If you had to tell the Trump administration one thing about all the statements from Mertz, what would it be with regards to the terrorists, the lifting of the long-range missiles? What would you tell the Trump administration? Tell Mertz to back off? What do you tell Trump to tell them? In order to avoid this escalation.

I would tell the Trump administration to make a public statement that the United States opposes deep strikes against Russia. That's what I would tell them to do. I mean, of course, there are problems in that there are many people in the United States who probably back strikes against Russia. I mean, there are those, there is that problem. But I think in this kind of situation, the stakes of this, the dangers here are so great that I think that that political risk needs to be taken. I think, again, most Americans would probably support the administration on this.

But I think the political risk needs to be taken because the other risks are so much greater. We'll see what they do. All right. The durand.com. We are on Rumble odyssey, pitch you telegram. Rockfin, go to the Durant shop, pick up some merch. like what we are wearing in this video update the link is in the description box down below take care