The Duran Podcast - MOLDOVA and the EU Geopolitical Project

Episode Date: October 28, 2024

MOLDOVA and the EU Geopolitical Project

All right, Alexander, let's talk about this situation in Moldova. We just had elections. We're going to have a runoff to the presidential elections. But the big story with the elections that happened in Moldova was the referendum for putting EU entry into the Constitution. It looked like that it was going to be a no to that referendum. And then the diaspora, not in Russia, the Moldova diaspora, not in Russia. it looks like they weren't allowed to vote or they didn't have access, proper access to get their votes in. But the aspora of Moldova outside of Moldova, the Aspora, they came in and they pushed the number to just over 50% yes for entry into the EU, or at least in the Constitution entry into the EU.

So what are your thoughts on everything that happened in Moldova? and a lot of people are talking about Moldova as a possible next pressure point that the West is going to put against Russia. Of course, we have the situation in Transnistria, which you may want to touch upon, but your thoughts on everything happening in Moldova. Well, I think the first thing to say

is that this was another example of the EU, the Western powers, and their allies within a particular country, acting in an incredibly short-sighted way, which has destabilized the country, or threatens to destabilise the country, is creating an extremely bad and very unsatisfactory situation and a potentially, and a one which potentially could spin out of control. Now, I think we need to understand what happened. Maya Sandu is the president of Moldova, the incumbent president of Moldova. She was elected a couple of years ago. Many people were surprised when she won. She is very, very pro

EU, to put it mildly, very, very pro-West, to put it mildly, very critical of Russia, to put it mildly. She is all of the things that you expect from people of those, that kind of political orientation and those political views. She's presided over a period of low economic growth. conditions of life for many people in Moldova have continued to deteriorate. I believe I'm right in saying that it is the second poorest country in Europe after Ukraine. So she has not, in many respects, been a successful president. She has been trying to steer Moldova into the West to pursue Euro-Atlantic integration, as it is called.

And she has been under a great deal of political and electoral pressure because she has been very unpopular with many people in Moldova, as we will see. So what she and her various backers in the West did, they asked themselves, how are we going to get Maya Sundu over the line? First of all, it's important to say that she only won the election in the first place. She only became president of Moldova in the first place because she was backed overwhelmingly by the votes that came in from the diaspora in the EU. The very large Moldovan diaspora in the EU.

If the election had been limited to people who actually live, live in Moldova, she would never have become president. I understand that within Moldova, people voted for her opponents. So that's, I think, the first thing to say. She's a fragile position. She's not been particularly successful as president. There was a strong movement against her. So all of the plugs are pulled to get her over the finish. line because the EU they can't afford, as they say, to lose Moldova. They always think in these terms. So a number of things start to happen. So first of all, the biggest opposition party was led by a Moldovan oligarch, probably a very not particularly likable man. I don't

know much about him. I'm not getting to comment about some of the criticisms that have been made about him. A man called Shores, who supports closer to. contacts and a recalibration of relations with Russia. So he's banned from standing as president, his party is banned, various media outlets that he controlled are closed. The same thing that we have seen happen in Ukraine. That was the first thing that was done. The second thing that was done is that there is also a significant Moldovan diaspora in Russia. There are varying numbers on how big it is. Some say it's 450,000.

Others say it's 170,000. So only 3,000 ballot papers are sent in advance of this election to Russia for the diaspora in Russia to use. And where in previous elections, 17 polling states, had been set up in Russia across Russia for Moldovans in Russia to vote. This time only two are, and I believe they are both in Moscow. So that basically excludes the vast majority of Moldovans in Russia, who might be expected, because they're in Russia,

to vote against Sandoo. and as we will see against the referendum that she was calling. Now, the other thing was they look at the fact that she's unpopular. They also track polls, which seem to suggest that joining the EU itself, however, did still command significant support within people even inside Moldova. So they decided to call this referendum, whose purpose was to enshrine the objective of joining the EU into the Moldovan Constitution. And they hold this referendum alongside the presidential election, expecting that lots of people who support the EU will come out and vote in the referendum, and alongside that, they will go ahead and vote for Sunday.

So that was the plan, and it has completely fallen apart, because what actually happened was that the EU referendum failed in Moldova itself. The voters there voted decisively against it. Of course, the Russian diaspora were prevented from voting. largely. Certain regions within Moldova, one region in particular, within Moldova itself, which is Transnistria. Apparently, a decision was also made that you can't, if you live in Transnistria, vote in this referendum or in this election if you are still in Transnistria. You must leave Transnistria and go elsewhere in Moldova to vote. Again, problems made to vote. Problems made to vote. made in to prevent transnistrians from voting in this election, which are also successful.

But otherwise, in every region, every other region, except I believe in the capital, Gisignor, and in one or two other places, strong majorities against joining the EU. And Sandu, who had been expected to win more than 50% of the vote, she fails. She only gets 41%, and again, largely on the basis of support from the Moldovan diaspora in Europe. And if we go back to the referendum, right up until the very last moment, just an hour before the final results were declared, it looked as if the no side would win. and suddenly another 180,000 votes appear from the diaspora, which are then counted, and which then just managed to get yes over the line so that they win and they just get just over 50%.

So it is an absolute disaster. It has demonstrated that there is no support for Sandu or that support for Sandu within Moldova itself. has collapsed and it has demonstrated that within Moldova itself, perhaps because the EU cause has now become identified with Sandoo, but also perhaps because people have become disillusioned with it altogether, the previous large majorities for joining the EU have evaporated, And now the majority of Moldovans who live in Moldova are opposed to their country joining the EU.

So it is a disaster. And of course, all the usual stories are now being spread. Russian interference in the election. Oligarchs, anti-EU oligarchs buying votes. All of that sort of thing. No evidence so far produced that supports this to any. serious extent, but already we've had an editorial at the Financial Times claiming this. Annalina Baerbach has already been talking about this, you know, this is all the nefarious

actions of people in Moscow that have brought about this result. A complete inability to face straightforwardly the realities of what has happened. I wonder if people in Moldova have realized that the collective West, that the EU is looking to use Woldova as a pawn against Russia much the same way that they use Ukraine. I mean, I wonder if they realize this. My suspicion is that they do realize that they don't have Moldova's best interests at heart. They're just looking to destroy Moldova in order to achieve some sort of victory over Russia. So I wonder if this played a factor in the opposition towards entering the European. Union. And my final question to you is Moldova itself. Moldova doesn't qualify financially,

fiscally, economically to enter the European Union. It needs many, many decades to qualify to enter the EU. If you go by the EU's own documentation and their own standards. Absolutely. And I've never been to Moldova. As a matter of fact, I know lots of people from Moldova, to say. I also know lots of people who have been to Moldova, British people, people from other countries. They all tell me exactly the same thing. It is an absolutely beautiful country. I mean, a beautiful landscape, tremendous cuisine, wonderful wine viticulture. The people are wonderful and apparently well-educated. It could be agriculturally very, very productive.

But very much like Ukraine, it's been the subject of this constant tug of war ever since the Soviet Union broke up. It has been massively mismanaged and maladministered. The EU has been trying to pull it, yank it away from its former connection. to Russia. And even as they do that, Moldova, as I said, has become steadily more impoverished. The moment, I mean, about decade ago, more than a decade ago, there was a color revolution in Boltova, where during which the parliament was burnt down. Lots of criticism of corruption then. But the country, its political stability,

was already compromised. And it was then pushed towards a pro-Western pass, and its economic relations with Russia were reduced, and the result was an immediate reduction in its economic growth rate, which has continued, and it continues deficit, which continues. All of this has now become structural, and is holding the country back. And of course, even as the EU tries to pull Moldova towards it,

what it is actually doing is that it is emiserating Moldova, reducing the effectiveness, the quality of its economy, and drawing away more and more of its young people who go to the EU to work and who have. have a vested interest, by the way, in maintaining the current course, because of course they don't want a situation where Moldova reorients and they then find it difficult to maintain the kind of freedom of movement within the EU, which they themselves desperately need now that they are in the EU themselves. So the EU project has emiserated Moldova.

has made Moldova no longer qualify on any objective criteria to join the EU, but the EU still tries to bring it under its wing. And the reason is, because the EU ceased to be, long ceased to be, that which it originally was when it was created as the European Economic Community in 1960, an economic and trade project, it has become a geopolitical one. And it is now geopolitics that overrides everything. So yes, of course, it has to extend itself all the time. It has to grow because what else is it achieving?

So, I mean, it's one measurement of success, which it can actually point to, is that it is endlessly expanding in size. It can pretend to itself that this must mean that we are really very attractive and very successful to people because look, so many countries want to join us. I mean, this is a narrative you always hear. And at the same time, of course,

you want to keep countries away from Russia. You want to pull them away from Russia in whatever way you can. And I completely agree with your. your other point, which is, I am sure, Moldova is an educated society. Despite sometimes you see scornful articles in the media in the West,

which pretend otherwise. Many, many Moldovans have come to understand what is being done to that country and that it is being used and is being treated as a pawn in exactly the way that you said. One of the interesting facts about this referendum, this referendum in this election, by the way,

is that the turnout figures have completely collapsed, according to the official figures, which we may not be able to rely on entirely, just over half the electorate voted. It could be a lot less than that. Just saying. Now, that shows the degree of cynicism and apathy that there is, political parties as I said being banned, media stations being closed.

All of this people are turning off. They're no longer involved or engaged in the political process. They no longer believe that it works for Moldova. They become very cynical about the leaders of Moldova. But to the extent that they're prepared to vote, they're making it increasingly clear that they don't like the direction in which their country is being taken and that they don't like Maria Sandu.

And I get to say something, I think that it may be difficult to get her to win the second round, though I suspect every wire will be pulled and every trick will be played to get her across the line. But I think it is difficult after this fiasco to imagine that she will remain president of Moldova for very much longer. Yeah, she'll get a job at some organization, IMF, a World Bank or something.

Just a real quick final question. Do you believe there'll be some sort of military front in Moldova with regards to Ukraine and Transnistria? Do you think Ukraine might try something? Do you think the Collective West will push Moldova to do something? Well, I said right at the start of the program that the country's being deceased. stabilized. I mean, what we could start to see is that even as actual public support ebbs away, all the various instruments, the NGOs, which are very active in Moldova, will be activated, that the people will be brought onto the streets again. There'll be attempts to try to move forward

this process, which has failed electorally. We might see a lot of that, and that might start generating tensions inside Moldova itself, tensions also, which will bring in Transnistria. Transnistria, just to explain, is a region inside Moldova, which has a distinct identity and has been able to preserve a specific autonomy. It is very closely connected to Russia. It receives economic aid from Russia, and there is a small Russian contingent military contingent there, which went there as part of a peace initiative that was supported by the UN Security Council back in the early 1990s.

So we could start to see tensions grow involving Transnistria as well. And of course the Ukraine, losing on the battlefronts, situation going disastrously wrong everywhere now. They have apparently at various times debated with themselves the possibility. Well, we can't defeat the Russians on all the big battlefields. Maybe we can strike at the small contingent. It's only about a thousand men that the Russians have in Transnistria. That way we can support and stabilize the friendly Maria Sandu government,

which is it's very friendly to Ukraine. And we can also help at least Moldova move forward towards Euro-Atlantic integration. And who knows that might also play well ultimately for us. There's been an awful lot of talk about this, and there's been much rumour and speculation that it might happen. And in 2022, we got to a point where it looked for a moment as if it would happen. And I also get the sense of the neocons

and the United States, many of them, would like it to happen. Up to now, it has not happened because the Pentagon in the United States has been dead set against it because they don't want to expand

the war in Ukraine. They worry that if the Ukrainians go into Moldova, then eventually the Russians will follow. So for that reason, they said, know. But that calculus could change at any time. And I'm afraid it's very difficult to be optimistic for Moldova after the elections that have just happened. But the views of the people there, I think, are now clear. All right. We will end the video there. The durand. Dot lovels.com. We are on

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