The Duran Podcast - Moscow hardliners question off-ramp to Trump

Episode Date: August 20, 2025

Moscow hardliners question off-ramp to Trump

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the military situation in Ukraine because we have all of this diplomacy taking place. We may have a resolution to the conflict of Ukraine or at least we're getting closer. Putin's words. Putin's words. We're getting closer to a resolution in Ukraine. Those are the words that Putin used the other day. But what's driving everything is the conflict. What is happening on the front lines.

And as we have said in many videos, ultimately what got to the United States. to the summit in Alaska so that they can hear what the Russians had to say. And I'm sure that the Russians explained the situation on the front line in detail is what is happening on the military side of things. And it continues to get worse and worse for Ukraine. So what's the situation on the front line? Absolutely. Now, I should say that over Pachrosk, there's been an enormous amount of fog of war

over the last couple of days, Zelensky redeployed everything that he had left, basically, to try to contain this Russian breakthrough in north of Pakarovsk. And there's been reports from the Ukrainians that they recovered about 60% of the ground north of Pakrovsk. Now, the trouble is neither the Russians nor the Ukrainians are providing us with much video footage. they're each making completely conflicting claims about what is happening north of Pakrovsk. It does seem that the Russians have at least retained some of the ground that they captured a couple of days ago. And of course, what Zelensky has had to do in the meantime, in order to prevent a collapse in Pachrovsk, which he clearly doesn't want at this time, because obviously this is a politically sensitive moment for him.

He doesn't want to lose Bakrovsk at a time when he's involved in very difficult negotiations with the Americans. And he wants to tell Trump that what Putin allegedly told him that there's no sense in the Ukrainians clinging on to Dombas because before long, Dombas is going to fall under the control of the Russian army anyway. Anyway, Zelensky has been busy saying that this is true, that Putin is lying. that this is all bluff and that in fact Ukraine is still holding its ground in Dombas. So he redeployed according to some reports six brigades to the Prakosk front to try to prevent this Russian

breakthrough. And of course what he's done, whether he succeeded in containing the breakthrough or not or recovering ground is that he's losing ground everywhere else. So there's been, the Russians have now broken, apparently, into Konstantinovka itself. This is a much bigger, this is a, you know, it's a bigger, more important town in some ways than Pachrovsk, to the east of Pachrovsk. I say it's more important because it's the southernmost town of the Slaviansk, Kramatosk, Konstantinovka conurbation.

If the Ukrainians lose it, then, as I said, the Russians are much closer to a position where the Ukrainian lines in Sloviansk and Kramatosk, which are the key ones, the key fortified towns there, where the Ukrainians would lose those. And the other thing is that the Russians appear to have achieved a major breakthrough further north in the Sversk area. It looks like they've captured. In fact, there's any doubt that they're captured. An important village called Srebrianka, which is located immediately to the north of Sversk, which is a fortified town, a small place, a little bit like, you remember Uglada in the south, which is this fortified position that the Russians took a very, very long time to capture, which was preventing the Russians from.

stabilizing the front lines in the south and making further advances in the south. Siversk has fulfilled the same role in the north. It's located on a hill which makes it difficult to capture and it dominates the surrounding landscape. But now what's happened is that the Russians are on all sides of Svarsk and they're very close to Sversk and they probably now cut the roads leading into Siversk. So it looks like over the next couple of days, the Russians will attack Sivask, at which point it could fall. And with Sversk is located very close to Slavyansk.

If you look at the map, it's very much part of the northern, the outer northern defense lines for Slaviansk. And it's a little to the east of an... another town which is called Lehman, which the Russians briefly controlled in 2022, but which they lost to Ukraine's Kharkov, 2022 offensive. The Russians have apparently captured all the main villages to the north and east of Lehman. If Siversk falls, that it's impossible to see how the Ukrainians can retain control of Lehman for any amount of time. And if the Russians capture Lehman, Leman, is the high ground for Slaviansk,

just as Chasifiar is the high ground for Kamatorsk and Konstantinivka. So the Russians have been a very, very strong position to attack Lehman, oh, sorry, to attack Slaviansk, and further north still, and this morning, there is news that the Russians are gaining more and more of Kupiansk. There's been a big battle for Kupiansk. Kupiansk also, it's in Kharkov region, actually, is about to fall. If the Russians capture Karkov, Kupiansk, the territory, the Ukrainians, recaptured in the

Karkov-2020 counter-offensive will start to be lost, and that will bring the Russians closer to Slaviansk as well. So you could see a stabilization, a possible stabilisation. because we don't really know what's going on in Pagrovsk at the moment, a possible stabilization, a temporary stabilization in Pachrovsk, because the Ukrainians don't have the means to stabilize fully the situation in Pagrovsk. Even if the Ukrainians have slowed the Russian advance there and recovered some ground over the last couple of days, the Russians will recapture all this ground eventually, probably within the next couple of weeks. Anyway, a temporary stabilization in Pocrosk intended for political reasons is weakening Ukrainian positions everywhere else and is bringing closer the moment when Ukrainian resistance across Donvass collapses.

Yeah, that's the summary of the conflict for Ukraine, how Zelensky has been going about this conflict. Everything's about media and PR and... And optics. Yes. So basically he's, let's say he has stabilized Pakrovs. Let's just say that it's been stabilized now. So he stabilized Pakrovsk in order to convince the Trump White House going into the

meeting, going into the meetings that he's having with the Trump administration, to convince them that it's not as Russia was telling you in Alaska. You see, I've stabilized Pakoros, Russia's Putin was telling you that that Pakovs is about to fall. So Putin is a liar. I'm telling the truth. Give me money and give me weapons. That's pretty much the message that Zeletsky wants to get out there. But he's done this at the expense of everywhere else. Exactly. And so, you know, Pachros may be stabilized, but now you have three or four other regions where the Russians are advancing. Yes. That's the situation, right? Exactly. That is exactly the situation. You plug up one hole and the other holes with the library. Exactly.

The other thing he's doing, again, which he did in Kusk, by the way, is that he's burning up his reserves. I mean, he deployed many of his best troops to Kusk region, and that weakened the Ukrainian army significantly overall. Now, the Ukrainian commentators have been saying this. Bezeglia is all over this issue. But there are other Ukrainians say this as well, that Kuzk was a disaster and that it basically destroyed most of Ukraine's strategic reserve. But the same is playing out in Pachrovsk, because apparently the men, the brigades that have been assigned to stabilize the situation in Pakrovsk were not just the units that were Ukraine's remaining reserve.

apparently, and again, I've read this from Ukrainian sources, they were the units that had been earmarked to defend Kiev if the Russians ever made another attempt to capture Kiev again. So anyway, but that's what he does. It's always the way he trades, he trades, he's always trading away time in order to give himself space, he wants to hold on to ground, even if ultimately that weakens his overall position at a time when everybody acknowledges that the Ukrainian army is desperately short of men, he is throwing away more men of whom he has fewer and fewer in battles in places like Pagrosk, which he cannot ultimately hope.

For the Russians, the attrition continues. Exactly. Exactly. And the reason that Zelensky wants to hold on to why he wants space and why he wants to hold on to the territory is once again because of the optics, the media, the PR spin. He cannot be seen as losing territory because the entire conflict for the West, and we said this pretty much in our first videos going back three years ago, the West has defined this conflict as gaining territory.

You're losing territory, you're losing the conflict. You're gaining territory. You're winning the conflict. You see, we've had the great Harrison counteroffensive and the great Harkov counteroffensive. Let's pour more money into Ukraine because we're gaining territory. While the Russians were saying, go ahead and grab these empty fields as we annihilate your military. Exactly. And the same for Kursk.

I mean, why did Ukraine go into Kersk? At first, it was the risk that Zelensky took, the gamble that he took to try and get the power plant. When that failed, instead of leaving and calling it quick, and saying it didn't work. This seizing of the power plant failed, so we're out of Kursk. Right? He didn't do that. No.

He decided to double and triple down and send more troops into Kursk and to try and hold on to that territory because he could not be seen by the Collective West as if he tried to go for this operation, this mission to capture Kursk, get he failed. and then the collective West would be upset with him. So what did he do? He changed the story around and he turned it into an incursion and an invasion of Russia and we're going to get this territory in order to leverage it over Putin. He created this whole narrative, this whole fiction in his head.

The West went along with it and now we see the results. And the same thing's happening now in Pachros, or at least he runs the risk of having the same thing happen in Pachros, which for the Russian military is, I think they're fine with that. Yes. Exactly. Yeah, I don't think they have a problem with... Indeed. Absolutely.

I don't think they have any problem at all because from their point of view, as I said, it's correctly say it is attrition. They've always fought this war as a war of attrition. And by the way, what you said about the West, not... Or at least I think they do understand it sort of now because it's becoming increasingly clear what attrition is indeed doing to Ukraine. But some of them, at least, still go along with this. So the British Defence Ministry has just published a bulletin, as it always does, in which he says that at the current rate of advance, it would take the Russians four years to capture the whole of Donbass.

They say this, even as article after article pours out of Ukraine, admitting that the Ukrainian army is in an absolute crisis, that it has run out of men, that it is running out of equipment. And scandalously, as a British journalist confirmed on Times radio that a British official told him last year that Ukraine is losing the war. You know what it is, though, Alexander? And we've also said this in past videos. We've talked about this. For the West, the issue of territory is easy to sell to the people. For the UK, it's easy for them to sell to people. to people in the UK who are not following the war in detail.

This is a map. Look at Russia's advances. You see, it hasn't been much. So let's keep on sending your money to Ukraine because Russia's not making progress. A war of attrition, it's hard to document that. It's hard to record that, and especially when you have Ukraine, you know, throwing out these crazy numbers. Then you have Trump actually believing these crazy numbers. I know.

So it's hard to visualize that for a lot of people that are not following the war in the detail that we are or our listeners are. So territory is easy for the West. That's why they always sell the territory part of it. We're gaining territory. The Russians are not moving fast enough. It would take them four years. So you see, they must be losing if it's going to take them four years to conquer all of Ukraine.

Yes. You know, they don't talk about the principles, everything behind the way Russia's conducting this war. They don't want to even go there. Yes. In fact, and in practice, it's not going to take four years or anything like that, because we're actually quite close to that point now. I mean, to repeat again, Pakrovsk will fall. I mean, it's only a question of time and probably not that much time. If Pakrovsk falls, and Kovievsk falls, and Kovietz falls, then ultimately we're to two cities. Slaviansk Kramatosk. And then that's it. And then the way is open for the Russians

if they choose to advance all the way to the Dnieper. Now, we have been making this point, by the way, again, for the last three and a half years, that it's these line of cities, that it's Dombas, that is the major fortified line. Now, the very interesting thing is how all of the discussions and debates over the last week about Putin offering a ceasefire if the Ukrainians pull out at these cities. How suddenly we see all these admissions that, in fact, Dombas was the great fortified line that we were always talking about, that if Ukraine gives up Dombas the way is open for the Russians to advance to the Dnieper, that there is no analogous situation any way.

anywhere else in Ukraine comparable to Dombas itself. And that is true. So you go to the institute of the study of war. They are now admitting this. There are even commentaries in the media, in the mainstream media now, which finally, at last after three and a half years are admitting this. The other thing we were saying three and a half years ago is that for the Russians, the priority is Donbass. They have to capture Donbass in order to win the war. But if they capture Donbass,

they have won the war. And suddenly, the media is acknowledging this. And you can, you just go to the Financial Times, the Guardian, the Wall Street Journal, wherever. You will see the admissions. Yeah. So Putin would, um, Putin would, um, Putin would be giving a lot if he agrees to Istanbul Plus, wouldn't he? Or at least there's some analysts that believe that. I mean, if you're winning the war, if you're accomplishing your goals, the way Russia is accomplishing their goals in this war, and you're obviously winning. Everyone says you're everyone knows you're winning or a bond, says, said you won. Even Trump and the Trump White House is pretty much acknowledging that Ukraine has, that, yeah, that Ukraine has lost with

Russia has won. I mean, that's pretty much what Trump is saying in his messages. We need to get to a deal because the military situation is just catastrophic. That's why we are here. That's where we're at this point. You know, for Russia, Putin is really, he's giving quite an off-ramp to the United States. He's giving an enormous off-ramp to the United States. Now, I'm going to say something. If the Western Ukraine had accepted Istanbul plus when it was first offered in June,

2024, I think it would not have been a difficult sell for Putin to make to the Russian elite and to the Russian people. Now, because a whole year has passed and the Russians have brought themselves to the position that they are in now, I think it would be a much more difficult cell. There was this meeting that happened in the Kremlin. After Putin, came back from Alaska, in which he talked about how, you know, we're closer to a settlement. And he's then said, you know, if you want to ask me questions, please go ahead and ask me questions. Now, that almost tells you that there is dissension about this, that there are some people in Moscow who are saying to themselves, why are we still even talking about Istanbul Plus?

Given that we are almost there, why are we negotiating with these people at all? We've seen that the sanctions and the tariffs were a bluff. We see that the military situation is overwhelmingly favorable to us. Why don't we just go ahead and break the Ukrainians in the Dombard? and advance to the Dnieper and dictate harsher terms. Now, Pertit's response, and you can always see the debate, you can almost get the sense of the debate going on. Bertin's response is, well, let's look at the bigger picture. Let's look at Europe.

When he was in Anchorage, in his press conference, he talked about we need to restore the security balance in Europe, and the security balance globally. We need to discuss the security architecture of Europe. And Trump seems to be prepared to talk about that. And that's what we should work towards. That's what I said when I spoke to the foreign ministry back in November 2021, before the conflict even began. And then you can get the sense of the response from the hardliners.

and they will be saying to Putin, well, you're going to make all of these agreements with Trump, but the next president is going to walk away from them. So yes, we will get these deals done, but they won't last. And then Ferdin will no doubt say, yes, maybe they won't last. But they'll give Russia five, ten years more time. I've just signed off on a very ambitious development strategy when the Americans walk away, will be in a stronger position than we are in now. If you follow the Russian media closely, which I do, by the way,

hardly any more than it is a frustrating thing for me, you could see these debates just below the surface. They're going on all the time. But to come back to your point, Istanbul Plus would have been an easy sell in June 2024 if the Biden administration and Zelenskyy and, Of course, it's Sunak at that time had gone along with it. Fat chance, by the way.

But it would have been an easy cell then. It's going to be a very difficult cell now. Well, it's been on the table for over a year. So it's been on the table for over a year. Exactly. Yeah. And now things are really picking up for the Russian military. The momentum is really swinging in the Russian military.

It's completely swung in the Russian military's. Exactly. So, you can almost send, you know, if you read the Russian media, even the official media, you get the sense of these debates and they're going on all the time. I understand where Putin's coming from when he says it gives us five or ten years, even when the United States has elections and then they walk away from these deals, which they will. Eventually the West is going to break these deals, as they always do. Every time they say Russia doesn't honor the deals, it's projection.

We know, we know this from our experience. Everything they say is projection, right? So we know every time they say Russia doesn't honor deals, that means that the West doesn't honor deals. We know that. So Putin, you know, buys five, ten years, 15 years. But, you know, the flip side is that Europe and the West buys five, ten, fifteen years. Yes, yes. They're not just going to sit stats.

And they've said, they're on record as saying, we are preparing for war with Russia. They've used those words. Everything we're going to do from here on out is to go to war with Russia. Yes. It is, it is, it is a calculation that Putin is making, that Russia will make, will benefit more from five, ten years of peace and will prepare better during those five to ten years of peace than the West, than the West will. It's not a huge risk.

It's a risk. Now, by the way, you could argue that it's the same calculation that led to Minsk too. And I think it paid off. I think Russia was in a much stronger position in 2022 to endure a confrontation with the West than it had been in 2020. No doubt about that. No doubt about it. No doubt about that.

But to project what happened, to take what happened in the past and project it into the future, to say that the Russians will indeed benefit more from another period of very uneasy truce. As you correctly said, it's a big risk. And as I said, there are many, many people in Moscow will say it's not a risk worth taking. The rest is compulsively hostile. They don't want peace with us. We should not even think about a truce with them. You could sense these debates.

They're taking place all the time. They are always there. You can almost hear the arguments as they take place. Of course, all of this discussion hinges on the, the scenario that that Europe rejects, that Europe, sorry, that Europe accepts and Zelensky accepts Trump's terms that he's presenting. Yeah, of course. You know, if they may reject it and then the conflict just continues.

The conflict just continues, in which case, as I said, the heart line is in Moscow, are going to get what they want anyway. Yeah, exactly. Okay, okay, we'll let it. the video there, the durand.orgas.com. We are on Rumble and X and Telegram. Go to the Duran shop, pick up some merch like what we are wearing in this video update. There's a link in the description box down below. Take care.