The Duran Podcast - Multiple cauldrons, Donbass capture. Zelensky SPINS victory

Episode Date: October 15, 2025

Multiple cauldrons, Donbass capture. Zelensky SPINS victory

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the military situation on the front lines in Ukraine. And I guess the word of the week is caldrons, more and more caldrons and circlements, or caldrons about to form or pockets about to be closed, whether we're talking about Pakrosk, which is turning into a disaster for the Ukraine military because they kept on sending more and more forces into Pakrovsk in order to further the illusion that they were defending against the Russian advance and they were actually winning against the Russian advance. It's cost them dearly. It reminds me a lot of all the media manipulation and optics that they used in Kersk as well.

And when the bill came due, it was horrific for Ukraine. So you see a lot of that media manipulation and the reinforcements strategy that Zeletsky and Siersky like to employ. You see a lot of that in Pachrosk. Anyway, you got Pachros, which is the main battle area. You have, I believe you do have an encirclement now in Kupiansk, actually. And you also have a lot of smaller encirclements which are forming throughout the front lines. So anyway, what's the situation in Ukraine? I am going to say I go a bit further than that. I think we are now, well, maybe breaking point is too strong, but we are in a situation where we are looking at the final collapse of Ukrainian resistance in Dombas, with all that that implies for the longer term. Because you're absolutely right. Caldrons, but cauldrons in many places all at once.

So I would say, based on the latest information we're getting for Praksk, that if a cauldron has not yet been fully established in Prakosk, we are almost there. The Russians have managed, it seems, to close all the big roads. There is an absolutely extraordinary picked film that's drone footage of a crossroads north of Pachrask. And you see perhaps a score of burnt out Ukrainian vehicles there and complete lack of movement on the roads anymore. The same is true, by the way, in other roads.

I mean, the entire countryside north of Pakarovsk is now deserted from what I can tell. So the Russians have closed off all of the main roads. The Ukrainian counterattacks that they were conducting northeast of Pakrovsk, where the Russians conducted their breakthrough in August, and which the Ukrainians, we can now say conclusively, were spinning and telling people like Kellogg and Trump. Look, we're conducting all these counter-attacks. We're succeeding here.

That proves that we are the ones who are actually winning the war. Those counter-attacks are increasingly looking as if they were a disaster. The Ukrainians, exactly as you said, bled white, their best brink. brigades trying to recapture this territory, and they failed to do so. And this has left them very short of men and machines north of Prakovsk to break the encirclement of some of their other units inside Pekovsk itself. About Kupiansk, well, even the Institute of the Study of War is now releasing maps, which shows a cauldron there, a cauldron for the Ukrainian troops inside.

Kupiansk itself, but also an effective cauldron for the much larger force of Ukrainian troops that are located on the east bank of the Oswald River, close to where Kupiansk is. And more reports this morning are fighting going on inside the fortified town of Sivask, which has been a bone in Russia's throat for a very, very long time. It looks like that place is also being stormed and that all the major supply routes to it have also been cut off as well. So the Ukrainian force that's defending Sivas, two brigades, apparently, has also been in effect surrounded and is taken into a quadrant. So all of this is happening in multiple places at once. Previously in the war, we've had cauldrons in one place, not cordrons in multiple places.

And you can see what has happened. Zelensky came up with this narrative in the summer. Ukraine is actually winning the war. The Russian summer offensive has been a failure. He's had to provide evidence to those people who whom he's been selling the war. this narrative, that this narrative is true. The result is that instead of withdrawing troops from undefendable positions, he's had to continue to reinforce them. He's even had to conduct counter-attacks in all sorts of places, and it is shaping into a disaster for the Ukrainian forces

in Donbass. There are reports now that the Ukrainians are now starting evacuations of the city of Slaviansk, which is one of the two big cities that are still left in Dombas under Ukrainian control. If they start evacuating Slaviansk, Kramatos, which is the last big remaining city after Sloviansk, well, they'll presumably have to start evacuations there as well. Russian drones are now operating and conducting strikes, FPV drones, I should make you clear, are now conducting strikes on Ukrainian vehicles and positions in Klamatosk and Slaviansk. The whole situation is looking critical.

And yesterday, I noticed that two of the most insightful commentators on the war, including a Russian journalist, war reporter called Chirulin, is also saying that we're now at a breaking point. And I have to say, I agree. Yeah, we're at the breaking point, but Zelensky always finds a new narrative to keep things going. I mean, he's a catastrophe when it comes to the actual conflict, but with the help of the media, with all of the media and collective west backing that he has, they're good at coming up with a new narrative to not only explain away the losses in this instance, the loss of Bakarovsk and all of the other cities and towns that he's losing.

But they spit it in a way that they present Russia as losing, and then they convince the United States via Keith Kellogg and Lindsay Graham for more money and more weapons and they keep the thing going. They did it in Kursk, they did it in Dekka, they did it in Bahabu. This is the way they do. and they keep things going. How much longer can you continue to do this? Well, this is an excellent question. I mean, I can already tell you what they're going to say after but Grosopholes, which it will and coupions, that these places are of no strategic importance. Remember, we've heard this about so many other places. Russia lost X amount of hundreds of thousands.

It's on the brink of collapse now because of our defense. Exactly. So all you need to do, therefore, is to stop all imports of Russian oil and gas into Europe. and suppliers with a few more weapons and increase the pressure on Russia and we've created a great news defense line west of Pachrovsk and all of the rest. And we can hold the positions there. And this is a war of attrition

and nothing really has changed simply because Pachrowski has fallen. I mean, as you run, say he's incredibly inventive in this. In fact, I was reading an article in the British media, which finally made the very same point that you made, I remember way back in 2022, that all of these people, Zelensky, Yermak and all of the rest, you know, come from the world of entertainment and media and all of that television film and that they all know how to create scripts and that this is the best thing that they're at.

Somebody, basically, I think it was Owen Matthews, might have been Owen Matthews, in the British media, repeated that very same point that you made three years ago, that this is what they're best at. And they will do it. It works, absolutely. It's worked for them consistently. I mean, I remember a reading just about six weeks ago, an article in the British media by British journalists saying that the Russians have only actually managed to.

advanced three miles east, west rather, from back. Things that are so unconnected to the realities of the battlefield. Now, how long can it be kept up? I don't know. I think that if Dombas is captured, the whole of Dombas falls under Russian control. I think Zelensky and his, associates will still be able to spin that in some way. I mean, they'll be able to say,

well, you know, three years, three and a half years for Putin's army, four years of Putin's army to take Donbass. We still control 80% of Ukraine. It just proves how slow and difficult it is for the Russians. If the Russians reach the NEPA in the central regions of Ukraine, then I think it will no longer be possible to sustain. that narrative any further. If the Russians reached NEPRO and Zaporosia, and they are moving closer now, then that will probably be the moment when all illusions about the realities of the war would have gone. But we are very far from that point still. But that doesn't change the realities that we are actually seeing a crisis at the present time. Is that because the Russians

are gaining territory or approaching the Deneper means that that the war of attrition is more effective. It's working. I mean, which one is it? Because I think the territory stuff, they can always spin. Even if they get to the Denepe, I'm sure that the collective West and Zelensky will then say, you know, well, the Deneper was always a proper and natural border between us and Russia. And it took Russia four years to get to this small little, little river in Ukraine that really

has no significance. And, you know, we always wanted that to be our border anyway. Going back 2,000 years, we've always thought of that as a natural border. So everything's all right. I mean, the territory thing seems to be something they can always spin into a new narrative that is believed by much of the collective West. The war of attrition, though, becomes hard to spin, right? It absolutely becomes impossible. Even the Institute for the Study of War, by the way, just a few weeks ago, finally acknowledged that if Ukraine does lose Donbass, then it is a major turning point in terms of the war. And bear in mind, the Western media takes most of its ideas about the progress of the war from the Institute for the Study of War, you know, Victoria Newland and Newlands and Kagan's and all of those people's outfit. So if the Russians reach the NEPA, and they're not even.

They're in central Ukraine and they're close to the two big cities, Zaporosia and NEPRO, which remain would at that point be the last remaining big economic part of Ukraine. Then, as I said, it would be very difficult to argue against the realities that the war of attrition, the Russian war of attrition is working. Also, if the Russians get to the Dnieper and the Ukrainian army is visibly defeated, east of the Dnieper, one wonders how strong the resistance that the Ukrainians would be able to continue to mount around Zaporosia and Nyevril would still be. Just saying, I mean, you know, their army is already shrinking as even people in the media are writing.

But my point is not that, you know, I mean, they'll try and spin something, but it will become more difficult. The fall of the Dombas, I think they can just about still spin. They can say, Slavians, Kramatosk, these are not really such big, important places. They're not really essential for Ukraine. It's taken four years for the Russians to capture those places. So the loss of Dombas is something that they could probably just about explain away, but if the Russians reach, as I said, the central regions of the Dnieper. And also, if the Russians, and this is also possible too,

if the Russians reach the central Dnieper, remember, Kiev itself is on the Dnieper, if the Russians are again outside Kiev, which they might come to be, fairly quickly if they reach the deeper in the central regions. I mean, the distances are great, but everything then becomes connected with everything else. Well, then, of course, it will be much more difficult to go on pretending that Ukraine is still winning the war. I just wanted to quickly add one last thing about the military situation, which is that we are now in the rainy period, the Rasputitsa. And one of the most interesting differences about this period, oh, you know, the modern rainy season, is that it doesn't seem to be slowing the Russians very much, which is interesting.

And probably points to Ukrainian resistance becoming weaker and fighting taking place in more built-up areas where perhaps the mud isn't affecting the movement of troops to the same degree. Yeah, I think the real shock for the West and for the way they spin narratives about the conflict in Ukraine will come either with an approach not only from Kiev, the Russian military, say if it's close to the Denebra and close to Kiev, but Odessa obviously is the city that I think a lot of people are looking at, which brings me to my final question. If and when Russia takes Slaviansk, let's just say the whole Donbass, captures the whole Donbass, is that when Putin offers a final deal to another deal to Trump before they make a move

to Deneper or will he just continue to press forward to the Deneper? Well, here we have a rather interesting event which took place also some days ago. In fact, on Putin's birthday, remember we discussed his visit. to St. Petersburg, and he's meeting with the generals there. And I was puzzled as to why he was in St. Petersburg specifically on that day. He is a native of St. Petersburg, and it does seem that he was in St. Petersburg to some extent because it was connected to his birthday, just saying. But it was still a strange thing. And he was asked about it, a journalist, none other than Pavel Zarubin, who is his favorite journalist, actually said to him,

look, why did you hold this meeting in St. Petersburg of all places? And it turned out that Putin not only held the meeting with the generals at St. Petersburg, but before he met with the generals, he took the generals to the Peter and Paul Cathedral in St. Petersburg, which is where Peter the Great and Catherine the Great are buried. and he basically showed the generals the tombs of these two rulers, these two Russian rulers. Now, Peter defeated the Swedes in Ukraine. He won the Great Northern War by defeating the Swedish army in Poltava, which is a city in what is today Ukraine. And of course, Catherine was the empress who defeated the Ottomans, captured Crimea, and built the two cities of Sevastopol and Odessa.

And if you go to Putin's comments to the generals, it seems to me very much as if he was giving them the green light. I mean, I put aside this visit to the tombs of the emperors. He seemed to be giving the generals the green light. He said, look, we've got all this going on with Trump. But you, in the meantime, stick with your job. Go on advancing westwards. If necessary, we might go beyond the four regions. And he hinted at that at his press conference in Dushan Bay also.

So I think that there is now an operational plan. I've no doubt about it, that there is now an operational plan to cross the NEPA and to move to Odessa itself. Now, with Putin, he is somebody who remains deeply committed to diplomacy. I can imagine that when Dombas falls, he could come out and say, right, this is the last opportunity. You agree to Istanbul plus, you withdraw from Hearson region, you withdraw from Zaporosia region, you transfer the city of Zaporosia to us, you carry out all of the other things that we offered or agreed in Istanbul, demilitarization, denuclearization, reconfiguration of your political system, all of those things. And if you don't agree, well, we now have our operational plan and the army continues,

the Russian army continues to move west. I think that could quite easily be what Putin is going to do. Because one of the things that all Russian officials, including Putin himself, have been saying continuously, is that this is not just about territory. It's not just about the four regions. It is about the entire situation in Ukraine itself, the kind of government it has, the kind of political orientation it has, the sort of alliances it has, the way it treats people who are Russians. And unless all of that changes, the objectives of the special military operation won't have been achieved and they must be achieved. and taking that stance opens the way to Aderset.

All right, we will end the video there. The durand.com. We are on X in Telegram and Rumble and go to Durandshop, pick up some merch, like what we are wearing in this video update. There is a link in the description box down below. Take care.