The Duran Podcast - Narrative contsruction; Ukraine's Black Sea naval victory

Episode Date: December 16, 2023

Narrative construction; Ukraine's Black Sea naval victory

All right, Alexander, let's do an update as to what is going on on the front lines in Ukraine. And it looks like Ukraine might be accepting a defensive position. That's the way it looks. They may be falling back into a defensive position, but of course you still have intense fighting taking place in Yenavdivka, Kupyansk as well. And what's the situation? What's the situation on the front lines? Well, not good for you. No, not at all good.

Crinky is a situation. Absolutely. You may want to discuss as well. It's not good at all. And it's getting worse. And it was they're talking about withdrawing and creating defense lines. And they are doing something about that in a few places, especially on the border, the northern border with Russia.

But overall, I have to say, I mean, there doesn't seem to be that enormous activity, the mobilization of construction workers, of building materials, the location of engineers, all that kind of thing. And, of course, they've left it disastrously late. For Ukraine to reproduce the kind of enormous defensive belts

that the Russians were able to build in the autumn and winter and spring would be extremely difficult indeed and if I have to be frank I don't think it can be done but the reality is on the actual ground the fighting continues

and it is going wrong for Ukraine in every single place so let's start with the single most important one which is the one that everybody talks about which is Avdeyevka this morning just before we did this programme there was news came trickling in that the Russians have now broken into the town itself

that they've managed to penetrate into the residential areas of Avdyevka and that they're closing, they're reducing the perimeter around Avdegovka. Literally every day, every day you hear about, you know, new fortified position captured, you know, the Russians having crossed another, you know, protected belt around Avdafka. And today, as I said, reports that the Russians have actually entered Avdafka itself. Now, it's not confirmed yet. A lot of reports about this, but these reports often are premature. They predict events rather than actually report actual events.

But it does seem as if we are very close to that point, even if we are not actually at that point yet. And of course, the Russians break into Ofdefka, then the dynamic of the battle changes. It starts to become a case more of street fighting. street fighting is very tough and difficult. It requires strong organisation by the defenders and the brigade, the 110th brigade, that has been defending Avdavka up to this point, has suffered extremely heavy losses,

and the soldiers of it have been publishing video after video, after video, asking to be rotated, to be taken out of Avdafka. They say they're exhausted, their commanders have abandoned them, them and they can't realistically keep fighting in the same way up to now. So I'm not saying this battle for Abderivka is over, but we might be close to the point when the end is in sight.

If you remember, with Bachmert, it was the same. You know, there was lots of fighting for villages around Bachman. Then the Russians finally entered Bachman. and it took a couple of weeks of very heavy and intense street fighting but eventually Bagman fell so the same thing seems to be playing out in Avdavka in Bahmut

going back to Bahmut the other place where there was the big battles forget this but in the first half of this year the big battles in Ukraine were fought around Bahmut and they continued to be fought all the way through the summer

and the autumn even as you Ukraine was conducting its offensive in other places. In Bachman, in a, Bachman has always remained since it was captured by the Russians in May, under Russian control. But the Russians now seem to be pushing forward beyond Bahmert. They've captured important places. They've captured a village called Kromovu. They seem to be systematically capturing heights that put them in a stronger position. They've cut the main road to another town called Charsovyaar, which is a few kilometres west from Bahmutt. They are on the brink apparently of attacking and storming a village called Bogdanovka,

and there are now lots of reports that the Russians are working towards capturing Chasovyaar. So that would be a major Russian advance in this area. It would put Bachmut itself beyond reach. There is another town called Marinka. Lots of bitter fighting has been going on in Marinka for months and months and months. It seems that the Russians have largely, though not completely, gained control of Marinka. There are a few Ukrainian pockets and holdouts in a few places,

but it does seem as if the Russians are now gradually clearing up these pockets. the likelihood is they will announce that Marinka, which is a town of around 9,000, 10,000 people before the war, so much bigger than all these villages we've been hearing about doing the offensive, that the Russians will have captured that one.

And it's bad news in other places. In the Zaforosia area, where Ukraine, which is the center of Ukraine's offensive, a place like Rabotino, the village that the Ukrainians captured about 40 times, if you remember.

It seems that the Russians might be on the brink of not only recapturing but consolidating control of it. The Ukrainians look like they're retreating. And along the Nipa River in Hurson region, Ukrainian troops are trapped in this village in Krenki. They're suffering appalling losses there every single day. It's clear that they can't advance beyond Krenki. And for the first time, we're starting to see reports appear in the Ukrainian media itself, questioning the logic of this bridgehead in Klinki and asking why is it still being defended. So lots of reports that all across the front line, no big single decisive Russian breakthrough,

but Ukrainian forces being systematically attritioned away. They're short of men. Every unit apparently now is seriously under strength. They're out of ammunition. One artillery unit has told the British media twice, and the British and Spanish media, that they're down to firing five shells a day, where they used to fire 150.

So they're short of men, they're short of artillery, they're short of machines, and the Russians are systematically grinding them down in every single place and the Ukrainian front lines are becoming stretched they're being attacked in all sorts of places

at once they're burning through their reserves it's the kind of scenario rather like the one that you saw in the American Civil War in the winter of 1864-65 or in the First World War in 1918 where superficially the front line appears stable but in reality it is collapsing because

the defender is exhausting his resources trying to defend it and the Russians haven't even started yet they haven't even started yet um yeah it's not only artillery though you're getting a lot more articles, Alexander, about the fact that Ukraine doesn't have soldiers. I mean, and you're seeing articles from like the Washington Post and the New York Times admitting this. I think the Washington Post put out an article a few days ago saying Ukraine is looking for soldiers. I mean, I'm not sure if that was the title, the exact title, but that was what the article was about. Ukraine is looking for soldiers. I mean, how do you fight a war like this? Well, you can't. In this situation, it's I mean, if I can say so, I mean, that was what did for the Confederacy in the end,

that they ran out of soldiers, and it did for the Germans in World War I, to a great extent, also. But it's now hit the Ukrainians especially hard. And, you know, remember just about a previous couple of weeks, lots and lots of reports were circulating that Ukraine was going to order some huge mobilization, that students were going to be called up, that women were going to be called up, And we were led to think that this mobilisation decree was going to be issued this week, or rather last week. Except it hasn't happened. There's been none of that mobilisation decree.

And I understand that there's two reasons for this. Firstly, it turns out that there aren't that many young men. It wouldn't fill all the plug all the holes to the extent that the Ukrainians need if they carried out that kind of mobilization. But also, the overwhelming mood in Ukraine at the moment is that people do not want to join the army. If a mobilization decree like that is announced, then what would happen, that might risk. protests, which is the one thing in this increasingly catastrophic situation that the Ukrainian government cannot afford in 1918. Can I just say, in 1918, that's what happened in Germany. The front lines were still just about holding, but they were cracking, they were running out

of men. And eventually, the demands that the German government was having to make to sustain the war effort became unbearable for the German civilian population. And protests broke out in Berlin and the fleet mutinied. And there was unrest within the army itself. And the whole thing just imploded. And the German leadership had to sue for peace. The Kaiser abdicated. Okay.

Yeah. Yeah. Correct. Okay. So to wrap up the video, before we wrap up the video, So many articles which are covering the situation on the front line articles from the collective West media, they say that, yes, things are very bad for the Ukraine military, but we should not give up hope. And there are still ways that Ukraine can pull this thing out.

One way is via Crimea. But another bright spot that perhaps the Ukraine can focus in on is the naval war. All of a sudden we have a naval war. The UK in Norway, they've announced that they're going to deliver a couple of ships to Ukraine. And we have the narrative that Ukraine, throughout the counteroffensive, they managed to score a big naval victory. Can you address these talking points, these bright naval victory? these talking points, these bright spots that the collectivus media focuses it, focuses it in on. Let me first address the question of the Great Naval Victory, because this has become, you know, the new narrative.

And I am surprised, by the way, at how many people are falling for it. There is absolutely no truth to it whatsoever. Ukraine launched large numbers of airborne. missiles, long-range airborne missiles, the storm shadows, the scalp missiles they got from France, some of the attackers missiles they got from the United States at Crimea, targeted the ships of the Russian Black Sea fleet. They managed to score the odd hit, though not on any ships that were, as far as I can see, on operational duty. And the Russians really, relocated their ships from one port in the Black Sea to another port in the Black Sea.

That is not a victory. That is sensible response by the Russians to what the Ukrainians were doing. The Russians have all the means, if they wanted to, with their Navy, to continue to launch missile attacks against Ukraine. The Black Sea fleet can operate still. They can go into the Black Sea. can launch its Calibra missiles from any part of the Black Sea that it wishes and certainly from parts of the Black Sea

which are beyond the reach of Ukraine's missiles. And if you are talking about naval blockades and a lot of people are saying, well, you know, merchant ships with grain have been able to leave Odessa and all of that. The reason that has happened is not because the Ukrainians won some great naval victory in the Black Sea.

It is because somebody's, in Moscow in the Kremlin took a political decision to let it happen they realized that if they were seen destroying ships, merchant shipping in the Black Sea, it would be

a political blow it might upset people in the global south and the Russian government took a decision that they weren't going to do that. If they wanted to do that, they have ample means to do it. They have submarines that can be operated, they could plant

mines, which would make it all but impossible for ships to navigate in this area. And that would probably not even require ships to be sunk, because if ship owners learned that there were the mines there, they would keep their ships away, they could launch missile strikes, they could do any number of such things. But they took a political decision not to. And it's understandable, because why would they want to risk their diplomatic reputation? their diplomatic position that they worked so hard to build up over the last two years. Ever since this current crisis began, by attacking ships of that nature, when they are winning the war anyway, they're advancing in every other place.

What do they actually gain by imposing that kind of blockade on Odessa? So this thing is another narrative. that has been spun and if you are talking about the storm shadows and the scalps and the attack missiles the other thing that's becoming increasingly clear over the last few weeks and months is that the Russians are actually becoming increasingly successful in shooting all of these missiles down which is why you're hearing less of these missiles I mean it's many weeks now well, several weeks now, since I heard about missile strikes by Ukraine on, on Crimea or on Russian warships. So, trans getting the Russians to reposition their fleet from one Russian port to another Russian port in the same sea, relatively small sea,

it's not a victory. It's just good tactics on the part of the Russians. That is how it needs to be understood. So that's the first thing I'd say. Now, the Crimean offensive, which has been resurrected by a whole load of people, is, of course, the identical offensive to the one that Ukraine tried and failed to carry out in the summer. And I think a lot of people have been analyzing and debunking these ideas exhaustively. And I'm going to suggest to them that they shouldn't waste their time.

because these articles about renewing the offensive in Crimea are not intended to prepare the ground for an actual offensive in Crimea. Nobody, even in the West, seriously believes that that can happen now. What they're really about is the neocons constructing their own narrative about why the war in Ukraine was lost. And their narrative is that the West, the Biden administration, was too slow in sending to Ukraine all the military equipment that it needed, that they dithered, the Biden administration supposedly dithered and delayed, and if they'd sent the attackers missiles and the F-16s and every other conceivable weapon that Ukraine had wanted sooner, then some great victory would have been won. And given that it's now clear that Ukraine is going down to defeat,

they want to keep that narrative in the public eye to give it prominence by saying that the war can still be won if we give Ukraine more F-16s, more attack and missiles, more of those sort of things. They never explain in any of these articles where the missiles, which are in short supply, the artillery shells, where any of those can be found. They never address those realities. And when people fail to address realities, especially now, given the defeats that Ukraine is suffering on the battlefield, you can see that what has been undertaken there is narrative construction.

Yeah. What's the deal with the UK boats? Again, it's another fantasy. UK and Norway, actually. These are the minefields. I mean, the first thing to say is, in order to deliver these boats to Ukraine, I mean, they'd have to get Erdogan's agreement. I mean, technically, he could agree to it. I mean, there is a case for saying that, you know,

these are Ukrainian warships. It wouldn't breach the terms of the Montreux Convention, if these minesweepers were to enter the Black Sea under the Ukrainian flag, when there's a conflict in the Black Sea, as I understand it, you know, you can give waivers of this kind. I don't think,

I don't think as it happens, that Erdogan will, and I don't think that if he does, the West should try to press him to do that, because, of course, in that case, the Russians can go to Erdogan and say to him, Well, look, if you're prepared to let Ukrainian warships enter the Black Sea,

why not allow our warships also? We've got lots of warships in the Mediterranean. It'd be very nice for us if we could start to redeploy and reinforce our fleet with even more powerful service vessels, nuclear submarines and that kind of thing. So if you're prepared to open the straits for that purpose for the Ukrainians, then go ahead and do it for us. So, you know, this isn't, I don't personally think this is going to happen. But let's assume that it did, and Ukraine got these minesweepers.

They are naval vessels. They are automatic targets for the Russian Navy and Air Force. The Russians have already destroyed all the surface warships that Ukraine already had. They just did destroy these two. So again, this is an exercise in narrative construction. It's an attempt to pretend that the British and the British, The Norwegians still stand resolutely against Ukraine. It's an attempt also to build on the narrative of Ukraine's great Black Sea victory

by talking about, you know, we must reinforce success by sending to Ukraine these naval vessels. Notice that these are new-billed vessels, apparently. So it's far from certain that they will even be built. Yeah, narrative control. their number one concern from the beginning of this conflict up until today. All right, we'll end it there. The duran.orgals.com.

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