The Duran Podcast - NATO and Ukraine military desperation

Episode Date: December 21, 2024

NATO and Ukraine military desperation

All right, Alexander, let's do an update on what is happening in Ukraine on the front line. Russia continues to advance across the entire front line. The collective West media, the economist, actually, they talked about how Kursk is indeed about to be encircled. Yes. Which was an interesting admission from the economist. And there is talk, I'm not sure how reliable this is, but there is talk that the Ukraine military, Siersky and Zelensky, maybe planning some sort of another incursion into Russia via Chernegev, Belarus and it's very close to Belarus and the Russian border.

There is some rumors about this, but I don't know how reliable these rumors are. Anyway, what are your thoughts? I mean, it would be completely irrational for the Ukrainians to do such a thing. conduct another incursion into Russia. Which means that's exactly what I was going to say. They might do it. Well, they might do something equally crazy, like trying to capture the nuclear power station in Zaporosia.

And the reason they might do these things is because, I mean, now they are desperate. Now, we've talked about the war, many, many, many programs. We've talked about the military situation in Ukraine. we've always pushed back against narratives that we've often heard that the war is being won by Ukraine or that the war is in stalemate or things of that kind. I'm going to say something. Even the economist in that recent article which discussed the situation in Cusk especially, even the economist, even the media generally, us are not aware of quite how bad the situation for Ukraine on the front lines now has become. And it was very, very bad already in the summer.

Over the last couple of weeks, it has got far, far worse. And Kusk is a major disaster. The offensive that was supposed to put Russia on the back foot, that was supposed to capture all that territory that would be traded for territory in Ukraine, the offensive which is going to persuade the Russians to transfer their forces from other places to defend Russia. The offensive whose real purpose, as we've discussed in many programs, as the Russians are now officially repeatedly saying, whose real purpose was to capture the Nukuz Nuclear Power Plan

and the other facilities in the nearby town of Kurchato. That has turned into an absolute disaster. It has become a open wound for Ukraine. The whole enclave there has been reduced, I think, to about a third of its original size. Every day we're hearing about the Russians recapturing one village after another in this area. And you could see that the noose on the Ukrainian soldiers is tightening.

And we could eventually get a cauldron. And things are happening in Kusk. Things are happening in Kusk now very, very fast. And thousands of Ukrainian troops are there. Losses apparently throughout the operation have been very, very heavy. many of Ukraine's best reserves have been burnt up there. It has been an absolute, complete and unmitigated disaster. And in the meantime, the Russians now have rolled up the Ukrainian defences in southern

Dombas. Ugladar fell a couple of weeks ago. Szilidovo has been captured. Kurchato, sorry, Koura Orchhovo, another important logistical base. The town itself has been captured. There's still a power station

of a factory area, a little bit to the west where a couple of hundred Ukrainian soldiers are still holding out, but at risk of getting surrounded. That whole area of southern Dombas has collapsed. And the Russians are now not just at the gates of Pachrosk, which is this major logistical hub, but there's lots of reports that they've actually, their reconnaissance groups,

their special forces groups are carrying out raids inside it, they're heavily shelling it, they're gradually cutting off the roads. But the point is that what is playing out is not just a military disaster and territorial, terms. It's also opening the way to the Dnieper, because beyond Pachrovsk, there are no defences to speak of at all until the Dnieper itself is reached. So if Pachrovsk falls, and if the Russians decide that they're going to continue to advance west, there is no physical obstacle to stop them before the U.S. the NEPA. And the Ukrainian army that would be trying to stop them has suffered appalling losses,

is massively undermanned, is running short of equipment, is tired and exhausted and demoralized, has a huge desertion problem and has never shown any ability to fight the Russians in a battle, in the open fields. So we may be closer, much closer to a military, the final military crisis, than people realize. Yeah, even Poroshenko said that Ukraine's mobilization has been a complete failure. Obviously, Poroshenko also wants to take over for Zelensky. So that's why he's exposing this, but still, he's saying that the mobilization has been a complete failure and it has been, It has been a complete failure. But Zelensky continues to resist lowering the mobilization age, even though Blinken and Sullivan,

the Biden White House, is pressuring him to lower that mobilization age. How close are we to the fighting actually happening in Pachrosk? Well, it is – I mean, you get different reports, that's why. You get very, very different reports. And, of course, we are – both of us remote from the scene so one can't really say but the russians now are very very close to bakrovsk indeed if they wanted to attack bakrowsk if they wanted to launch an assault on bakrowsk they could do it today but they do what they always do rather than launch a direct

assault firstly they try and cut the major communications lines they try to isolate the garrison they will then establish a position inside the town that gradually weaken the Ukrainians in that kind of way because they still have the political imperative of avoiding casualties on their side also. I mean, so this is the frustrating thing, if you like, about the way the Russians conduct the battle. But the battle of Pachrovsk is going to start in earnest.

within the next couple of days or weeks, certainly I'm sure, before the new year. How is Zelensky, if he does, how is he going to go about the power plant or an incursion into Russia given that they're suffering so many losses elsewhere? I mean, how do you execute something like that, given your situation on the front line? I mean, wouldn't you be accelerating the collapse in, say, Pakrovs, or Torez, or anywhere else, by going into Russia in a different region or trying to go after the Zaporoja nuclear power plant? I mean, once again, you're removing resources from areas that need the support, and you're moving it to these misadventures, which are not going to do any good.

This is exactly what Zelensky was told by his own military chiefs before the Kuzk operation. We know that Zelensky started to think about the Kuzk operation around the time when the crisis in Avdewka was getting worse. And Zaluzni told him, don't do it. It's a massive diversion of forces. We need to focus instead on trying to hold the positions where we can. then Zelensky fired Zolluzni. Sirsky was appointed. Siersky apparently told Zelensky the same thing.

Zelensky did it anyway. He still conducted the offensive in course. Is the UK telling him to do this? I think so. I actually do think so. We now know, it's not been reported here in the UK, by the way, But we now know that it was the British who told Zelensky and Zollosny to carry out that operation to try to cross the NEPA in her song region, which led to the disaster in Klinki. So the idea is you're going to lose anyway.

So, you know, throw the dice, make a big gamble, attacking Bryansk region from Chernigov into Russia, capture, try and capture the Zaporosia nuclear power station. If these things turn out, well, well, the whole situation is transformed. If you stick to what you're doing, well, you buy yourself. yourself a few more weeks and months, but ultimately you're going to be defeated anyway. So that's the kind of gamblers calculation that Zelensky seems to like, and it's what he's going for. Yeah.

Yeah. This is his pattern. This is his pattern. He makes political decisions or even media optics decisions. Yes. Yes. I'm just trying to think, what does he gain by doing this actually? I mean, you've got Kursk.

That's been a debacle. I mean, is he hoping that if he goes into another region in Russia, he gets what exactly? Or he gets the nuclear power plant? What is he looking to gain from stuff like this? Well, it's a good question. It's a very, very good question. But probably in his mind, he's saying to himself, if he captures more territory inside Russia or captures the nuclear power station in Soporosia, well, somehow in some un-examination,

explained way that's going to transform the entire situation. It's going to alter the whole direction of the battle. It's not obvious why it would. In fact, more likely than not, it would make the situation worse. What he could do, of course, is throw into confusion any move to try to start negotiations and discussions, not just between Ukraine and Russia to end the war, but between Russia and the United States in general. So if his priorities to prevent that, then of course it does have a kind of logic. But put that important consideration aside, if you've had any experience dealing with gamblers, and I've dealt with many of them, I've been in my legal and other careers, I've had many, many deals with gamblers, what you discover is that these people have an addiction.

and even as they lose, their instinct is to pile more and more of their chips, you know, the one number. And the idea is that if the wheel spins, so the number comes up, that was somehow transformed their whole situation, even if they're not really in a position to explain how. So that, I think, is the psychology with Zelensky you're looking at. He is a gambler. And when gamblers are going down, their instinct is to double and travel and gamble even more. He's a gambler and an emotional actor, not a very good combination. Anyway, we'll add the video there at derad.orgals.com.

We are on Roble Odyssey, Pitche, Telegram, Rockfin, and X. Go to the Durant shop. Pick up some merch like what we are wearing in this video update and also pick up some gift card. as well for the Christmas season. You will find the link of the description box down below. Take care.