The Duran Podcast - NATO Confusion as Ukraine Braces for Difficult Winter

Episode Date: October 9, 2026

NATO Confusion as Ukraine Braces for Difficult Winter

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the situation in Ukraine. What is happening on the front lines? What is happening with the Vivaldi? Super duper Bielitsky counteroffensive, which looks like it has fizzled out. A big surprise. We kind of called it. But anyway, that's the situation with Vivaldi. You'll get into the details there.

And we had, or we may be having a Putin. Trump phone call, maybe. And we also have a NATO gathering in Kiev. I believe all of the NATO generals, they all showed up to Kiev. They met with Trapati, the new Ukrainian general, the commander of the armed forces. And this is the first time, I believe, that you have all of the NATO top commanders and officials in Kiev since eight years, I want to say. The last time when they were all in Kiev was eight years. But, you know, this is just Russia and Ukraine conflict, not a NATO involvement, right?

Anyway, there's something going down because you have all of the NATO generals in Kiev. So they're obviously plotting and scheming and probably panicking as well. So where do you want to begin? I think we will start with the NATO generals because this is an enormous number of generals suddenly turning up in Kiev. And of course, Kiev itself is becoming an increasingly risky place to go, as we've seen. And the Russians are giving more and more warnings about the dangers of traveling to Kiev. So nonetheless, somebody or some groups of people decided that the situation required, this whole group of people to travel to Kiev together and to go to Kiev. And notice that this has not

been talked about or discussed much in over the last few weeks. We've not had indications that a visit of this scale was being planned, which suggests strongly, at least to me, that this has all been arranged very much, very rapidly in a hurry, probably dictated by the ongoing situation. And those of us who are old enough, remember Vietnam? And the fact that during the Vietnam War, as things became increasingly difficult, you would have whole processions of generals and top military people going from Washington to Saigon to try and find out. what was going on there, to report back to the White House, to try and come up with some new

strategy and new plan to rescue what looked like a deteriorating situation. And I have to say this looks exactly like that to me. Things over the last few months have gone disastrously wrong. The Ukrainian drone and missile offensive of the summer, which was expected to put enormous pressure on the Russians and break the economy in Russia and create a crisis for Putin? Well, we saw that that didn't happen. The drone wall that was supposed to stop the Russians advancing seems to be failing in all sorts of places as well. The Russians are now conducting the largest air campaign we have seen in Europe since the end of the Second World War, an air campaign, Even the Americans would struggle to sustain on this scale.

We've had a blockade of Ukraine's ports. We've had the attacks on the railway system. We've had the attacks on Ukraine's infrastructure, its internet, all of these things. And of course, we've had an escalating budget crisis. And we have had also, lastly, these attacks on the bridges in Kiev. which threaten these supplies to the Ukrainian forces in eastern Ukraine. So if you put it all together, then it becomes quite easy to understand why a large group of top military people have rushed to Kiev, our meeting with Drapati and with all of the

other various people who are now running things in Kiev to the extent that they're actually running things, trying to find out on the ground what the situation really is like, how bad the air defence system actually is, how Operation Vivaldi in northern Dombas is really going. And they've all rushed, and it is a sign to my mind that this is a crisis and that they know it is a crisis. And the reason they've made this just a big delegation. And they've all gone there is because, firstly, even within NATO, it's now increasingly clear that people don't fully trust each other. There's acrimony between the Americans and the Europeans and there's all sorts of quarrels and disputes amongst others.

But also, put that aside, they also want still nonetheless to give the appearance that they're all united, that they're all there backing Ukraine together, that NATO continues to support. Ukraine that it is as long as it takes. So this is an inspection mission, but it is also intended to project a message to the Russians that NATO's support for Ukraine remains firm, even as everything is falling apart. A fact-finding mission. A fact-finding mission. Which says a lot about NATO, which speaks a lot to NATO, doesn't it? The fact that they're running this conflict, but they have no clue what's really going. on? I think there has been a very major disjunction from very early on in the war between the

information they are receiving at NATO headquarters and in Vizbaden, where we know the main headquarters that runs the wall actually is located and the actual realities on the front lines. You're referencing the New York Times article, which outlined the... Yes. The commanding control systems. And as I said, I mean, that is, by the way, all but inevitable when the headquarters, the true headquarters are located so far from the action, the military action.

And when the commanders, the actual commanders, the NATO generals, are of course disconnected from the actual military that is fighting. So you have a Ukrainian military with the troops, the soldiers. the officers speaking one language, you have the NATO officials in Vizbaden and Brussels talking completely different languages. Inevitably, there is going to be a real problem with actually getting an actual sense of what is really happening on the front lines. And I'm going to say something here, which I know is going to go against a lot of the

accepted wisdom today. I think all these are not. means of surveillance, the drone footage, the satellite footage, all of that can actually, in a strange way, increase the sense of unreality and the distance from the battle. Because whilst it provides an enormous amount of information, you can't interpret that information properly, unless you are in direct contact with the soldiers themselves on the front lines. So you might see a battle, a firefight, for example, taking place in a village. And it may seem to you from looking at the drone footage that that particular firefight has

gone well. But the actual soldiers who participated in it may know that they're running out of ammunition. They may know that water and food supplies are very bad. They may sense that there's a whole other force gathering to attack them in the wood nearby. Unless you have that connection to the actual soldiers, you are going to lose all control and all sense on what is really taking place on the battlefields. Doesn't this give the game away, the fact that you had such a strong military contingent? 32 NATO representatives from all the member states, 32 member states sent their representatives

to Kiev. Dragoni, who's the, I guess, the top general in NATO. He said, we are here in full strength with a clear message. The bond between NATO and Ukraine is stronger and stronger. Ukraine's not in NATO. No. Marco Libyo said two days ago that Ukraine is not going to get into NATO. Yes. That's the U.S. Secretary of State. Yes. Ukraine is not getting into NATO. Trump has said Ukraine is not getting into NATO. Yes. Why do you have this strong military contingent, all these 32 generals and military officials

in Kiev talking about how the bond is stronger and stronger? Ukraine has no pathway into NATO whatsoever. So what the hell is NATO doing there? Why are all these generals in Kiev? I mean, it gives the whole game away. NATO is freaking out because they are losing this conflict. NATO is losing to Russia. Yes, that is exactly right. I mean, this thing that Ukraine is not in NATO is, let's face it, it's a fiction. NATO is running this war. NATO is providing Ukraine with the

intelligence. NATO is providing Ukraine with the weapons. There are plenty of NATO troops in Ukraine already, as advisors, as technicians, as mercenaries, as mercenial. as all kinds of things. The entire command system is basically run around NATO. And you're absolutely right. They're losing the wall. And they are extremely shocked and frightened and alarmed by this. And at the same time, I still think that at a certain level, this is such a terrible thing

that they can't bring themselves to accept it and fully believe it either. So, you know, this is why they've all rushed to Kiev. I mean, they're going to some extent, you know, to project the message to the Russians. They're going to a great extent to try to find out what the real situation is. They are going, as they would say, to reassure the Ukrainians. But of course, they're also going so that the Ukrainians can reassure them so that they can hear Zelenskyy, and Drapati and all of these other people tell them, don't worry, we got it all under control.

Operation Vivaldi is going well. The front lines are holding. We've got all of these workarounds in relation to the bridges, all of that sort of thing, so that they can then go back to Brifes, Baden and Brussels, and then report back to their political masters in Washington, Berlin and London.

Don't worry. We've spoken to the Ukrainians, and everything is fine. The fact that the bridges are now under attack, that the front lines are crumbling, that all of that is happening. This isn't really true. It's just mischievous stories that the Russians are putting out and don't believe it. Right.

Mischievous stories like Operation Vivaldi and Beletsky. We'll get to that in a second. One more question on NATO. How does this affect NATO, the losing of this conflict? the alliance, the structure. How devastating is this to NATO? Can they cover this up with clever marketing? Can they cover this up with messaging from Ruta, with events and conferences and more statements about how NATO is the strongest alliance ever in the history of the world? I mean, will this be enough to cover up the defeat of 32 or 42, whatever, how many countries are

NATO to one country? I mean, what is this practically? How does this affect the alliance going forward? I think once the defeat becomes clear as a defeat, internally it is going to shake them. I mean, there is going to be a major blow in terms of self-esteem and in terms of morale. And I mean, it is inevitably going to happen. And of course, it's going to be. going to be a lot of talk about reforms and changes and reorganizations, but it's very difficult to see how an organization like this structured in the way that NATO is, which we've discussed in many programs, is going to be able to conduct the kind of reforms and restructurings and reorganizations that NATO would need in order to survive. And of course, they've also got

the worry now that in the United States, whatever slippage there is about this, whatever internal debates are within the US, whatever pushback comes from the neocons, there is now an active and full debate within the US, is support for NATO worthwhile? Is the NATO gravy train really something that the United States taxpayer should keep funding? because as we've discussed in many programs in many, many places, to a very great extent, that is what NATO is. It is a gravy trade. It just is a system for giving a lot of people in Brussels, very nice jobs, and not just in Brussels,

but all over Europe. And there is going to be increasing worry if this all ends in a visible defeat that the Americans are going to conclude. that there really is nothing to be gained from persisting with this failed enterprise, this costly, very costly failed enterprise. So there's going to be all of that there. There's going to be all of these nerves and fears and worries. But of course, that's not what they're going to say publicly. They're going to say publicly that we are still very strong,

that whatever victory the Russians gained in Ukraine is a hollow, temporary victory, that we are in for a long war, a long conflict with the Russians, that what we need to do is rearm and that the only reason why we lost in Ukraine was because of that terrible man, Donald Trump, who came in and started to talk to the Russians in the year after he was inaugurated and then went on a frolic of his own, taking on Iran in the Middle East. So they're going to come up with all those excuses and rationalizations and reasons why they failed. And they're going to say it's nothing really to do with us if we'd had firm, consistent leadership, if we'd given the Ukrainians the support they deserved right at the outset,

all would have been well, but we got the dithery, Biden and we got, as I said, Trump instead. And that was the only reason why we failed. So what we've now got to do is to spend trillions more on defense, make sure that the Americans remain committed, and then all will be well. So that is what they're going to say. Yeah, they're going to definitely blame it on Trump. And Trump is to blame because he was the one that was pushing more defense spending for NATO. Yes. Right. So he was pushing the bureaucracy that is NATO. And what's going to happen is that they're going to turn on Trump. They're going to blame the defeat on Trump. That's exactly how it's going to go. Right. And yeah, just real quick, do you think that NATO told Ukraine or is trying to figure out if Ukraine can hang on for another year or two?

Yes. I mean, I think that they can get through the midterms, get through 20, 20, at the elections and hit that magic timeline number of 2029, 2030 for when they believe NATO is going to be ready to launch some sort of attack against Russia? Do you think they were also trying to figure out, can you guys hold on for another couple more? years? Of course they are. That's exactly what they're, I mean, in so far as there is any military planning going on. It is all about that. It is to keep the war going for as long as possible so that in their imagination, Mato gets strong and Russia gets weaker. Of course, the reality is the diametric opposite. I mean, Russia is getting stronger. I mean, its army is becoming the most experienced large military in the world. It's developed an understanding of the modern technology of war, which is unrivaled. It now has the Razavet system coming online, which is causing a growing alarm amongst people like Eric Schmidt who actually understand this technology.

They've got far more surveillance satellites than they have had. They've developed all kinds of new weapon systems and new military systems and organizations and they've completely reorganized their military industrial complex. Whereas in Europe, to be absolutely clear, we are spending an awful lot of money, but we have not even in terms of rearmament reached first base, and I doubt that we ever will, because re-arming, re-arming, re-arming, re-rearming, re-arming, in the way that NATO says simultaneously with a process of deindustrialization taking place, is impossible. Well said, rearming while deindustrializing.

All right. Let's get to the super, super duper outdoor offensive known as Operation Vivaldi. What is the situation there? we are starting to get reports from multiple sources, which are saying that this thing is fizzling out. Yes. Whatever it was. I mean, I've read some accounts. I think there wasn't offensive, a counteroffensive, but I've even read a lot of accounts

which are saying there was no counteroffensive at all. This was all a media PR trick. Basically, Ukraine entered areas where there was really no presence at all of anything. Yes. And that was the territory that they captured. I don't know. These are some reports that I'm getting. Most of the reports I'm seeing are saying that there was some sort of an offensive, a counteroffensive, but it's pretty much just petering out.

Yes. I also have seen, by the way, just to say, the report that there was never any real counteroffensive at all, that at most there were a few raids in a few villages and people raising flags and that it was all done for the cameras and that there was nothing actually real happened. I am skeptical about these reports because there has been too much reporting from the Russian side, from what I would regard as reliable Russian sources, like the newspaper Radolfka, for example, which is clearly very connected to the Russian Defence Ministry. I mean, let's be straightforward about this. It acts as a kind of unofficial spokesperson for the Russian Defence Ministry. They had been talking as if there was indeed a serious Ukrainian offensive taking place there.

But it turned out exactly as we said, the Ukrainians conducted an offensive. They captured a few villages, but they weren't able to advance beyond those villages. We had a huge amount of claims about what they would achieve, that they'd crossed two rivers, that they'd recaptured Lehman, that they were going to recapture another town further east called Sivask, which the Russians captured about a year ago, that they were going to recapture all of the territories and that the Russians would lose all the gains that they'd made over the course of two years. And the actual result is the recovery of a few villages. And that seems to be about it. And even some of those villages,

the Ukrainians said that they recaptured and where they showed Ukrainian troops raising Ukrainian flags, there is now some reason to believe that the Russians are back in control of at least some of them. So it's all tailed off exactly as we said it would. And we now have video footage confirming the presence of the Russian troops in Lehman, which is the central town, which the Ukrainians were supposed to recapture. So the Russians are clearly still in Lehman. And there is no proof, no evidence at all that this offensive has achieved any of the enormous goals that were attributed to it. It seems, as you said, exactly, to have fizzled out. Just the final question. Was Vivaldi more about a Beletsky type of vanity project for Beletsky rather than a serious military?

operation. I'm throwing it out there because it seems like this whole thing was all about raising the stature of Beletsky than rather achieving something militarily. It probably did a lot more harm to Ukraine than good militarily, but it does raise Beletsky's persona, his cult of personality. It does raise it to a certain level. Maybe he's planning something in the future with regards to Zelensky, to a government position. I don't know. But it just seems it was more about Baletsky than actually achieving anything. The thing to understand about this particular area, Lehman, north area north of Slaviansk is that it's very hilly, it's very wooded, there's lots of streams.

It is ideal territory for a defender. and the Ukrainians were defending and they had quite strong positions and some of which they'd made stronger still because they'd fortified them. So the logical and correct thing to do was to remain on the defence here and deal with these other very dangerous Russian offensives that are taking place to the north and to the south of them, the one in Dobropelia, which is turning into a disaster for Ukraine, and the one further north in Kharkov region, which is turning instead into an even bigger disaster for Ukraine. But Bielitsky came along. He is the head of Azov.

He is not, as we've discussed in many programs, a professional army officer. He is a political leader with a very, very virulent ideology, just a said. So he comes along. he's clearly got strong political ambitions. I was reading recently, by the way, that he's busy setting up a veterans movement of Azov veterans, and there is talk that this is actually being developed in part in order to provide him with basically a militia force in the rear that he can use in order to leverage and gain power in Kiev

in the event of a political vacuum or a crisis. So he is thinking more about things like that than about military strategies and tactics, which probably, anyway, he doesn't really understand. But he's already got a lot of political leverage in Kiev. He got Zelensky to appoint him the overall commander, apparently in Dombas. So he came along to Dombas. He needed to show that he is the decisive, strong leader who can take on the Russian, and win, he launched this offensive in this particular area where the Ukrainians had it anchored

and he launched an offensive in an area which favors the defender, which is of course the Russians. The Ukrainians therefore left their fortifications. They came out into the open, which is exactly where the Russians want them. So they were able to shell them and bomb them and inflict, extremely heavy casualties on them, which ultimately has weakened the Ukrainian defense position. And at the same time, however, and this is what matters for Bieletsky, he's released videos, he's appeared on the front lines. It's not really the front lines, but that's what he's represented as. He is the warrior chief who's taking on the Russians and winning,

and it is going to help his political position in Kiev. And absolutely for him, that was the true purpose of this exercise. His great interest is in Kiev, what happens in Kiev. And ultimately, because he's not a, he's a clever man, I think he's also thinking about how he's going to build up the myth of himself and the myth of the Azov movement, so that when the war is lost, in the diaspora, there will be an enormously powerful force attracting all the money and all the support. And that's probably what he is working towards and calculating at the moment. Yeah. Kiev, that's where the money's at.

Absolutely. Not Lehman. And for him, it's about the ideology keeping Azov going well past the war. because Azov can keep going, then Azov can continue to get funds, let's say, as a force that's in exile or as a covert force that continues to fight the Russians well into the future, right? It's a long-term strategy. It's a long-term strategy. And just to end the video, just your final comments, I was always very, very skeptical about this. I think you were as well.

I watched many of your videos where you talked about the marketing. behind this operation. It was very weird that you have this counteroffensive and you name it the Vivaldi operation and it has four seasons. To me, that was a giveaway that this is more marketing and PR than an actual military strategic operation meant to achieve something. Right? I mean, you know, four seasons. We're in season one. We're in season two. I was like, this is kind of ridiculous, isn't it? Yeah, yes, it is. It absolutely is. It absolutely is. And again, it tells you that the people who are running this thing are civilians who are interested in politics and propaganda and who also want to reach out, by the way, to a Western audience. Because obviously, I mean, I'm not saying Vivaldi isn't known Ukraine, but, you know, many people in the West know about Vivaldi.

And, of course, the other thing to say about this is, of course, establishing and maintaining, preserving us off as a potential COVID. force dovetails exactly with what the future plans of the West's intelligence agencies are going to be. If the Russians win a military victory in Ukraine, the conflict doesn't end. The conflict continues. It takes a different form, and the intelligence agencies are planning for it. Yeah, and Baletsky is positioning himself for it. itself for it. Exactly. Yeah. And the media, the collectiveist media, the EU officials, the bureaucrats in Brussels, NATO. They eat this Vivaldi crap up, right? Absolutely. Of course. They read about it. And then they're like, wow, Vivaldi, season number two is

underway, right? Exactly. Exactly. Exactly. I'm sure they're all listening to the four seasons in Brussels. You know, they're putting on the very, on Spotify and whatever. And they're listening as they get the messages in. Yes. I mean, by the way, that is exactly the kind of people we're discussing. I mean, that's exactly the sort of thing I can imagine them doing. It's a marketing man's dream of this thing. And that's exactly how this battle has played out.

Yeah, but it makes Ukraine's position much, much more worse. Much weaker. Like the reality of the front line. Exactly, exactly. It is a lot worse off now because of this marketing and PR stunt. Yes. Yes. All right. We'll end the video there. We are on substack. We are on locals and go to the Duran shop, pick up some merch. Those links in the description box down below. Take care.