The Duran Podcast - Neocon adventure in Niger risks big conflict in West Africa

Episode Date: August 28, 2023

Neocon adventure in Niger risks big conflict in West Africa The Duran: Episode 1681

All right, Alexander, let's do an update on the developing situation in Niger. There are reports that the ECOWAS countries are preparing some sort of intervention. There are reports that there was some sort of diplomatic effort between ECOWAS representatives and the Niger military junta. they came out with a three-year timeline to get Niger back to some sort of acceptable democracy for the ECOWAS nations, but that wasn't accepted by the ECOWAS countries. And we have the United States, which has not really taken a position one way or another. It does look like they're going to be supporting France, or they're going to be backing France in France's push to get the ECOWAS countries,

intervene and and we have friends. They're deteriorating situation in in Niger but all throughout Africa. Where do you want to begin? Let let us begin with what's happening in Niger because it's now quite clear that there is an that there is an impasse. I mean, the ECOWAS has been very, the ECOWAS states are very divided about intervening in Niger but it's clear that the pressure on them to do so from France and I'm pretty sure the United States and other Western countries is extremely strong. I mean, we've discussed many times how Niger is seen

as too important to the West simply for the West to let it go. I mean, that's a mistake, by the way. I think that ultimately if Niger was left alone, it would come to terms with the West. I mean, they have to sell their uranium and their lithium to someone. And why not

their established customers? I mean, what it seems to me they would want to do is to sell it at a better price. But, well, that's commas. That's what you do. I mean, you know, you deal, you come to arrangements. It's not going to bring

the entire Western world crashing down, nor is it really, nor would it if, you know, Nijer was left alone, the result in any fundamental change in the geopolitical situation in Africa. They're all exaggerated, but the French don't

want to let Nijer go. The US sees everything. or at least the neocons in the US see everything like a kind of chessboard so they are now pushing ECOWAS to intervene and ECOWAS that various groups within ECOWAS look increasingly likely

as if they're going to intervene and there's apparently a military force being brought together and ECOWAS says that they've got D-Day you know agreed between each other

and my impression is that the talks between ECOWAS and Niger basically amounted to an ultimatum from ECOWAS to the military leadership in Niger to basically back down or else there would be an invasion. The trouble with all of this, the real danger from all of this is that what we're going to see is an expansion of the war. And not just in Niger itself, but across West Africa. There's reports that Mali and Pukina Faso, which are supporting Niger have now deployed fighter jets to Niger in support of the Niger government. There's also reports that the Niger government is trying to enlist people in Niger itself to join the military. Now, it's not apparently a very strong military in Niger. I mean, I think, you know,

if Senegal and Nigeria were to invade Niger, probably they'd be able to battle through to the capital. I mean, I'm making that assumption. but that's my best guess. But like all neocon ventures, which ultimately this one is, it would start strong and then begin to fall apart. In other words, the problems would really start after they arrived in the capital, presumably trying to restore the former president or some other civilian president like him, and try to re-establish the situation that was before.

most probably we would see the insurgences in Niger start to escalate and we'd see growing instability across West Africa Mali and Burkina Faso and Chad and all these other places would see this as a threat to themselves and we would have a we're really risking a big conflict in West Africa as if we didn't have enough problems already so it seems to me an incredibly unwise thing to do as I just let the process in Nijat play itself out.

There's been lots of coups in Africa. And, you know, they've never, in the end, changed anything fundamental. Let this one play out. But that's not what they are able to do. Instead, we have an intervention. And again, I can't help but think that at some level, politics is also playing a role here. They don't, the Biden team don't want,

you know, a Niger government that calls in the Russians, calls in Wagner. They don't want to see, you know, Niger fall to the Russians. They don't want to be accused by other neocons on the Republican side and be losing West Africa, all that kind of thing. And, of course, from their point of view also, if the Niger hunter is overthrown, well, they can say this is a great victory for the West, a great defeat for Putin,

because he's supposed to be the person who's, behind everything in West Africa, in Niger as well, even though there's no evidence that he's supported the coup. And, you know, we get all the usual articles appearing in the New York Times, the Washington Post about how Putin has overreached and all that sort of thing. And they can chalk it up with some kind of a win. And then, of course, they'll use that all the way up to the election. And then, of course, if things fall apart afterwards, well, Niger is far away.

It's not that important to Americans. It might be a serious thing for Europe, if there's a war in West Africa, triggering more enormous refugee flows towards Europe. But that's not an American problem. Who do you think is behind the push to get ECOWAS to intervene? Do you think it's France or do you believe it's the United States? I mean, if the United States was to say, you know, we're not going to listen to the neocons,

we're not going to get involved in this. Let's just say something like that happens. Would France be able to pursue this on their own? No, it's the short answer. What do you think is happening behind the Kurds? Yeah, I mean, they wouldn't be. I mean, I think both the French and the Americans are pressing ECOWAS to intervene,

and I think the American pressure is pretty strong. Now, the French want ECOWAS to intervene because they want to restore their position in Nijer, Apparently they did consider very seriously an intervention in Niger when the coup began, but they discovered that the army in Niger was all supportive of the coup. They didn't feel that they were strong enough at that time to intervene by themselves, which basically meant that they had to pull out. But they don't want, I mean, they could in theory intervene in Niger,

but if the French army went into Niger, it would be France, the colonial power restoring its authority in Niger. it would be an incredibly bad look, so they prefer ECOWAS to do it. They don't want the United States going into Niger and restoring the previous government, because if they did that, that would be the United States displacing France

as the major power in Niger. So the French are pushing ECOWAS to intervene. Senegal is a country with strong relations with France. They think they can ride on the back of ECOWAS and re-establish themselves in Niger. So that's the French. The United States, they have a different priority. Obviously, uranium, lithium, all of that are important for the United States too.

But their major priority is geopolitical. They don't want China in Niger. They don't Russia in Niger. So they are also backing an intervention by ECOWAS. I mean, they've made it clear that that is what they want to see. Because they are not, you know, the former predominant power in Niger, they can afford to take a backseat, if you like. But if the United States had made it clear to Nigeria and the other ECOWAS states

that they were not really interested or supportive of an intervention in Niger, then whatever France said, an intervention by ECOWAS would not happen. It can only, the only reason it has even been debated is because the United States wants it. There are some articles coming out of France, which claim that the French are nervous about the neocont and Victoria Newland getting involved in Niger. They want them to get involved, but they're also nervous about them getting involved because they fear some sort of double cross, like what happened with the, the Auguste deal and stuff like that. what do you make of those reports and perhaps the French wanting the United States to help intervene in Niger, but also being a bit worried about whether they can trust the United States intervening or helping to intervene in Niger. No, there's any doubt about this.

And I think this is anybody who knows the mood in France and, you know, attitudes in France understands that very well. I mean, for the French, losing control of Niger is a blow. I mean, when I would talk about, I mean, we must understand this in relative terms. I don't mean, you know, the sort of people that once protested as part of the Gilles-Gonnes, they don't think about Niger every day. But the French elite are worried about, you know, the fact that France is losing its positions in West Africa. Having those positions was very important, quite apart from the economic benefits, to preserving the appearance of France as a great power.

So, you know, they're worried about this. But at the same time, they're also worried about the United States because on the one hand, they want to use the United States to shore up their power, France's power, in West Africa. At the same time, they know perfectly well that the United States has its own interests, its own agenda. It is far more powerful than France. If it is the United States that restores the previous government in power to in Niger, either directly or through ECOWAS,

then inevitably power in Niger is going to drift away from France towards the United States. It's inevitable. Now, you know, there's been other examples of this in history. I mean, if we go back to the 1950s, for example, Britain. was the predominant power in the Middle East. But, you know, when there was the when there was the coup, which overthrew

Mossadegh in Iran, Mossadegh having come to power as a Prime Minister who would nationalise British oil assets, the British supported the coup. But the coup could only happen with the support of the United States and yes Mossadegh was overthrown

but what it also meant was that Britain was displaced as the dominant power in Iran by the United States and it's happened in other places too it's happened in Saudi Arabia where there's sort of not exactly the same dynamic, similar kind of dynamic

in the 20s and 30s it was the British who were the dominant power in Saudi Arabia the United States came in the British were gradually edged out and you know you could see that in much of the Middle East and the same is playing out now with the French and West Africa and they're going to be nervous about it

it's not after all it's not after all as if the neocons have any sentimental feelings about France I mean bear that in mind I imagine the neocons probably hate France well absolutely but well I mean they probably haven't forgotten you know the Iraq business was Shirac and you remember the freedom fries and all of that.

The Nierke-Gans have very long memories. Yeah. Wouldn't it benefit France to just, because the military hood enjoys widespread support in Niger, wouldn't it just benefit them to just wait this out for a couple of years, use diplomatic means to engage with the military leadership in Niger? and try to find a way to do business with Niger on a more equitable level. I'm sorry.

I mean, a more fair level. You know, I mean, wouldn't that be a better solution than worrying about whether the neocons are going to come in or if the U.S. is going to push them out of Africa or a wider war in West Africa or trying to get equal laws to do their dirty work? I mean, the solution seems more simple than, than any of these things. It'd be a far better solution, a far better outcome for France.

A far better outcome for West Africa. It would be a win-win for everybody. But of course, when I say everybody, always remember that there are individuals, powerful individuals in France, who would stand to lose. Now, I don't know to what extent this is still the situation anymore,

but I mean, I can remember, you know, when I used to travel to France and know more about France than I do today. But, you know, to just give an example, the French civil service system was based very much in the old days upon how you did in your final exams of the Accordinationalation, which is supposed to be in the process of being abolished, by the way,

but that was the way. And if you did very well, if you got a really high position, in the exams, well, you would go straight into, say, a cushy job, important job, of the French finance ministry. But if you did less well, you didn't get a very high grade, well, what would they do? They would reassign it somewhere in West Africa. I mean, you know, there's a whole set of jobs and careers and business interests and all that kind of thing.

I mean, you know, you'd be attached in those days as an advisor to the, you know, to the, you know, the uranium ministry or whatever it is in Niger or a position in Senegal or you'd be helping to administer this central, you know, the West African Frank system. And, you know, there's a lot of people with personal interests in all of this. And they're an important constituency. and Macron who originates from this world I mean he pretended otherwise but he's actually somebody who also trained the Ecole National de administration he's very very you know

he listens to these people because that's the milieu he comes from yeah he's captured by these people he was put in place by these people anyway all right that's a whole other story yeah yeah he's accountable to them okay we will end it there the Duran dot locals.com. We are on Rumbolodicy, but shoot, Telegram, and Rockfin, and go to the Duran Shop.

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