The Duran Podcast - Nepal's Government Collapsed What Happens Next?

Episode Date: September 14, 2025

Nepal's Government Collapsed What Happens Next?

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the regime change that took place in Nepal a couple of days ago. And in my opinion, it is a regime change. Actually, I don't think there's anyone that believes this was not a regime change. The Gen Z regime change of the government in Nepal, the government has collapsed. The military is ruling for now. That's my understanding of things. and this regime change was extremely violent. A lot of people were injured.

People did die. And a lot of homes and residences of government officials were just burned to the ground. Your thoughts? I have absolutely no doubt at all that this was a regime change operation. In fact, it's clear to me that the government in Nepal was aware that something was being prepared. And that's why they made this hurry decision to try to stop, to block the social media platforms because they probably sensed that something like this was coming.

And of course, when they blocked the social media platforms, instead of stopping the regime change, it simply accelerated it because clearly the seeds had already been planted. and the organisation to do it had already been set up. Now, there's a few things to say about Nepal. Nepal is a very poor country. I understand that GDP per capita in Nepal is around half of what it is in India. So it's a very poor country.

It's a country with a huge, extraordinary, very rich history, an exceptional culture. But it has many, many problems. It's economically deprived. It has very severe youth unemployment. There are extreme problems of corruption, and the economy itself has been stagnant. So there are lots of conditions within Nepal that would make a government unpopular. And it wasn't just the government that was unpopular, apparently, but the entire political class in Nepal that was also unpopular.

So there was things that would explain why the government was unpopular. But what we saw was so clearly part of a regime change operation that as so often happens, what it seems to me clearly took place on this occasion was that the people who were behind this regime change, this colour revolution, basically took advantage. of the brittle conditions in Nepal, they could see that the government was right for overthrow, and they moved to overthrow it. And I've no doubt that that was what happened. If something happens because social media sites are closed down, if no political party to speak or is involved in these protests, if there's no visible leader to them, all of that is clearly the whole

mark of something that is being organized and being prepared from behind the scenes and ultimately from abroad. Yeah, and timing is everything. This was launched about a week after the SEO in China, where we saw a detente between India and China. And of course, Nepal has a history with both countries, a connection to both countries and the business investment from both countries and a notable investment from China. into Nepal.

The message from the United States is what to India and what is it to China with this regime change? I mean, there's an obvious strategy and message from the US. What is it? Well, I think the message, which is perhaps more directed at India, is, look, we can do this. We did this in Bangladesh. We can do this in Nepal. Obviously, India is a vastly bigger country and a much more complex. X-1, but we have our friends in India too. If you're Prime Minister Modi, you need to be careful

because what we did in Bangladesh and in Nepal, we might be able to do to you. So, I mean, that is the warning, I think, that is being conveyed here. The second thing is that Nepal is strategically located. It's sandwiched between India and China. There has been history of China and India being rivals in Nepal for basically influence within the country. So, and this area, the Himalayas, is precisely the area where tensions between India and China are greatest. And I understand that Nepal has territorial claims against India. and it's got some issues with China.

So controlling Nepal establishes an American ally in a sensitive place, and it can create tensions between China and India. It's like you insert something there in a particularly sensitive location, and you can aggravate the tensions between China and India and perhaps try to derail their whole move towards data. on with each other. So it makes absolute due strategic and geopolitical sense to do this as well. Though I agree, the SCO summit was undoubtedly another catalyst, but the completeness with which it happened suggests that this was under preparation for some time.

So was China asleep? Was India asleep? How come they didn't catch on to this? Yes, because countries like China and India and Russia are not really up to speed on this. India, I know, was very shocked by the regime change that took place, the color revolution that took place in Bangladesh. I mean, that really, really stunned them. And so were the Chinese, by the way, but the Indians even more. And they will be shocked by what happened in Nepal. But they don't have their people on the ground in the same way that the Western powers still do.

The West, whatever else it is not good at, it is very good at this. I mean, they've constructed basically since the 80s, this whole apparatus of NGOs, of donors that fund the NGOs. Obviously, USAID doesn't exist anymore, but there are the routes to do it. So, I mean, they have this network and this structure and this experience. of doing this, which neither the Chinese nor the Indians or even the Russians have, the Russians have gradually started to get their act together about this and they've been more successful in country within their own country and in the areas immediately contiguous to themselves,

in Kazakhstan, for example. But the Indians and the Chinese are way behind. And they just, I mean, I don't think they really had much sense that this was coming or really knew what to do. So, well, what do they do now? Well, the first thing they should do. The first thing they need to do. Real quick, Modi and Trump, on the same day of the regime change, they exchanged messages on truth social saying that they're ready to negotiate or they're going to continue the negotiating process with trade, which was interesting timing of those messages. Yes. It was interesting.

I mean, as I said, which it reinforces my own sense that this is probably in part intended to send a message to Modi. But what the Indians and the Chinese need to do is they need to speak to each other. I mean, they need to make absolutely sure that whatever happens in Nepal from this point on the Chinese and the Indians are not going to let it spoil the progress towards improving their relations. All right. We will end the video there, the durand.locals.com.

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