The Duran Podcast - Netanyahu Frustration, Middle East Conflict Delayed

Episode Date: September 20, 2024

Netanyahu Frustration, Middle East Conflict Delayed

All right, Alexander. Let's talk about the situation in Lebanon with the pagers detonating. Actually, the first wave was pagers. About 3,000 pagers blew up. And we had a second wave. The second wave, according to media reports, was walkie-talkies. But I've read other reports, which claim that other mobile devices were also affected. mobile phones and and um iPads and stuff like that um tablets stuff like that i don't know how

accurate that is but uh pagers first wave and definitely uh walkie talkies the second wave and and um a lot of a lot of talk about how this happened what did uh it obviously the the allegations are that this was massad israel even though they have not issued a statement. I think that's clear that they were behind behind this. Once again, they have not issued an official statement. But a lot of people are asking how this happened and why this happened. Why now? A company in Taiwan who has claimed it was actually a company in Hungary that had the license from Taiwan and now we're finding out that this company in Hungary was nothing more than a shell company and there's a lot of speculation as to as to whether

this was an explosive device or if this was batteries. Anyway. We're going to need some time to figure everything out. I don't think it's going to take long, but I imagine in the next couple of weeks, we'll figure out exactly the world. We'll figure out exactly what happened. But what are your thoughts on not only what happened, but I think the more important question that we can start to discuss is why now?

Obviously, we're being pushed towards a war, but let's get into it. Why now? I mean, I think how it happened, the actual mechanics of it, are important and eventually it is important that we do find out. Because there's an awful lot of commentary and discussion about this, not just in the West, but in other places in the world as well. And a lot of people are saying in China, I've been in touch with people in China.

They've been telling me what's been said on social media there, in Russia too. And I've seen things on the media in Russia as well. And in other places, India, wherever, which is saying that from now on you're going to be very, very careful about the devices that you are using. They're not just

capable of being used to survey you. They can also be used to kill you. So I mean that's that's a rather melodramatic you because obviously this is a targeted attempt by someone to go after some people that we mustn't perhaps

go have to say, you know, be careful who you buy for or whatever. But there's true to that. But there is, truth to it also. There is truth to it also. And the Pandora's box has kind of been open. I mean, absolutely. Hasn't it? Absolutely. I think it has. I mean, from now on, people who do sensitive work, government officials, people who work in scientific laboratories where perhaps they might be doing military things, all kinds of things of that kind are going to be

encouraged to source their devices from approved places. And there's going to be, much tied to security, and it may not be quite as, you know, the global market for these devices is now going to become more fractured. Now, I want to stress, this is probably going to affect only a minuscule proportion of the market, but an important one. And this is being talked about. But anyway, let's not get sidetracked into this. Let's not get sidetracked now at the moment is how it was done. I mean, I think the fact that it's a shell company, the fact that Taiwan was involved,

or perhaps not involved, or whatever. The key thing to say is this, this was a operation carried out on a very big scale. That means that it can only have been carried out by a large intelligence

organization. That logically, in this part of the world, when we're talking about Hezbollah and the attack on Hezbollah, that must have been carried out. I would have said by intelligence agencies connected to Israel.

I mean, it beggars belief that it would have been anybody else. I can't imagine any other Arab state, for example, wanting to carry out an operation of this kind. Maybe some of the Western countries might have known something about it, that there's no evidence of this.

The logical, obvious country to have carried out this operation on this kind of scale, targeting this particular opponent was Israel. Now, that then leads us directly to the next. I mean, they're the pride suspect. And from this moment, I'm going to proceed on this program as if it was there. I mean, I'm confident that it was.

Now, let's move on and ask why this was done. And a number of people, I think, have made the entirely correct. that, you know, you do all of this. It disrupts, obviously, Hezbollah's communications network. It does so. It does so by killing a certain number of Hezbollah people. But we're talking about roughly a score.

And so far as we know, nobody important, at least not up to now. So this doesn't make sense doing it now. The logical time to carry out an attack at this guy. in this kind of way, was during a military operation. So you infiltrate Hezbollah with these devices, these communications devices.

There is then a war. Hezbollah is relying on these devices during the fighting, and suddenly they start blowing up on them. And that would have thrown their entire organization into some kind of chaos, at least for a couple of hours or days, and that would have given

their adversary, which logically again must be Israel, the time and the opportunity to make the use of this disorganisation in order to press home their attack. Now, this was done at a time when there was no attack underway. So that's going to give Hezbollah time. And remember, this is a efficient organisation. Whatever you may think of Hezbollah, it will be. It will be a real. It what he acknowledges that they're very well organized. This is going to give them time to sort up their communications issues, get rid of these devices, put their communication system back on a solid basis, perhaps buying pages or whatever it is that they want to buy from whatever sources that they are confident now are secure. So why therefore do it now? Why not do it in conjunction

with the military operation? Why do it prematurely in a way that will in effect negate its effectiveness? Well, there are two theories floating around, one which basically comes to Israeli sources, which is that the Israelis got a tip of that has been. Bola had itself detected the fact that these devices had been tampered with. And so the Israelis decided to activate the devices before Hezbollah dispensed with them because they'd gone to all this trouble and why not put the devices to some use? That is theory one. And then theory two, which has now been pushed by amongst others the financial times

and which is the one that I share, is that this was done as another in this unending series of provocations that the Netanyahu government has been doing over the last few months, going all the way back to the attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus and the Hanea assassination in Tehran. They want to intensify the situation. They want to make the situation in the Middle East worse. they want to provoke Hezbollah and Iran into action that will give Prime Minister Netanyahu the war in the Middle East that he's clearly working towards.

And I have to say that seems to me far in a way the most likely explanation of why this was done. In other words, Netanyahu is frustrated because the Iranians have not yet struck back over the Hanya assassination. He's supposedly been told that in a few weeks time, weather conditions in Lebanon and, by the way, in Iran, are going to make long-range attacks, air attacks and drone attacks on positions in Lebanon and in Iran, both mountainous countries, much, much more difficult. He wants to start his operation now. He wants to start his operation now,

before the autumn closes in. He's trying to provoke Pesbollah. He's trying to provoke Iran. This is the latest provocation. There are rumours, by the way, that he wants to sack his defence minister. You have Gallant because Gallant is opposed to this attempt to push for war. And those reports came out independently

of the news about these pager attacks. He's just made another speech talking about the need for Israel to conduct a military operation against Hezbollah. And there are reports this morning which of course I'm not in a position to confirm that an Israeli brigade has been moved to the Israel-Lebanon border

and that an attack on Hezbollah is imminent. So it looks to me like, as I said, all of this is being done in order to prepare the ground for the war. Yeah, and Hezbollah Iran know this. I mean, they know that they're trying to be provoked, and that's why they're not doing anything. That's why Iran has not retaliated. I imagine it's not the only reason, but that's one of the main reasons why Iran has not retaliated as quickly as so many people thought they would retaliate.

So why doesn't Netanyahu just, I mean, it's not working. The provocation is not working, obviously. And he's got a certain amount of time left before we. we get to winter and things get more difficult. So why doesn't he just move forward with this conflict? I mean, why does he need the provocation to happen? Why does he need to make it look as if Hezbollah or Iran is attacking Israel? I mean, is this for PR reasons, for diplomacy reasons?

Because even if he does just start a conflict, which is obviously what he wants, everyone acknowledges this is what he wants. it's not like he's going to lose any of the support from the country that he needs the support from, which is the U.S. In other words, the U.S. is not going to say, well, you know, you started this war, Netanyahu, so we're not going to support you. We're only going to support you if Hezbollah strikes first or if Iran strikes first. I mean, that's not what the U.S. is saying. So why does he need? This is the part that I'm not understanding.

Why does he need the provocation? Right. Or is it for domestic reasons? Yeah. Let's unpack all of this because these are really good questions. Now, the first thing I'm going to say is I mentioned this point about the weather conditions becoming more difficult in October as the autumn closes in and the weather and all that. I think a much, much, much more important factor in Netanyahu's timetable is the election in the United States. At the moment, he's got an administration that is very weak, is not able to exercise effective restraints on him. And there was a report.

So about two weeks ago in the Times of Israel, for example, that many American, some American officials are becoming completely exasperated and fed up with Netanyahu and that they had even been considered. imposing personal sanctions onto Israeli ministers, Ben-Kvier and Smortrich, but the usual people in Washington pushed back against that, and in the end it wasn't done. And anyway, the overall impression given by this article in the Times of Israel is of a chaotic situation in Washington during a period of political transition with a president who is perhaps not fully engaged, and of Netanyahu making the most of that.

We have discussed this in previous programmes. Now, in November, that time window starts to close, because in November, one way or the other, we will get a result, which will point to who the next president is going to be. And that person, whichever it is, is going to start to weigh in more effectively, or one would like to imagine more effectively, on the diplomatic and political situation in the Middle East.

So I think that this is the time window that Netanyahu has. He wants to get this operation up and running and going in the next six weeks. This ball going in the next six weeks. Why does he want to make it appear that it's the Iranians, and Hezbollah that are involved in the military operation, that they're taking the initiative in attacking Israel. I think there is an extremely simple and straightforward reason about this. And that is that when the war comes,

he doesn't want it to be a war just between Israel and Iran and Israel and Hezbollah. he wanted to be a war of the West against Iran and Hezbollah. What he wants to do, in other words, is to get the American, British, French and other militaries participating directly in the conflict. And we had a strong sign of this about two weeks ago when the foreign ministers of Britain, France and Germany, met with the Israeli foreign minister, Mr. Clark Katz. And Katz then came out and made statements about how if there was a conflict in Iran,

the British and French foreign ministers had told him that the British and French militaries would directly participate. They would actually be there assisting the Israelis in the conflict with Iran. Then afterwards, clearly after complaints from London, London and Paris, the readout that the Israeli Foreign Ministry published walked back the statements that Katz had made verbally. But the fact that Katz was making those statements, I think gives you a clear insight into what the Israelis are trying to do. I think Israel understands

that if it comes to an all-out conflict with Iran, Israel. Israel alone is not strong enough to take on Iran. So they want the West involved as well. And probably another factor that is causing them concern, or at least Netanyahu concern, is that the US, a couple of weeks ago, it was barely reported, you remember we discussed it briefly,

it was barely reported at the time, moved to US carrier groups to the Gulf of Vermont, close to Iran, where they would have been ready, to participate in a joint strike against Iran. The strike from Iran didn't happen. The US is now redeploying one of these carrier groups to the Pacific.

And I think, again, this is probably caused Netanyahu concerned because he senses that Western support is flagging. Because there wasn't this Iranian attack at the time when he expected that to be the Americans

don't want to keep their fleet tied up in the Middle East and the result is that Netanyahu was seeing US military assets drifting away so he launches this attack now on Hezbollah

and he's hoping that this time something more buying right he wants he wants something similar to Ukraine where the European Union, the collective West, the United States, they say Iran started this war, and that's why we're going to be involved. But he wants more than just the weapons deliveries and whatever the collective West has done for,

for Ukraine, the mercenaries, the weapons deliveries, the satellites, imagery, all of all of the things that they provided to Ukraine. He actually wants the boots on the ground, I mean, from what I understand. He wants direct military involvement from, for free. from the UK, from the US in a war with Iran. And he wants them to say Iran started this war. Hezbollah started this war. So that is why we are directly going to war with Iran.

That's his angle. I think so. And if you if you get follow some of the articles, so there's usual people in the media, both in the United States and in Britain. And I've just been reading one of these articles. You see again, in fact, the person who's, written this one, the one I'm thinking about, is one of the candidates for the leadership

of the British Conservative Party. Anyway, they're already talking about the fact that Iran is this existential threat of the world and to the West and there's all the usual tropes about the fanatical leadership in Iran and how it's important to bring this under control before Iran takes the next fatal step, which will bring it closer to achieving its objectives. So you could see that, you know, the ground is being prepared for that to happen. You'd be nuclear weapons, weapons of mass destruction. Of course it is.

It is nuclear weapons, absolutely. And you can also see, you know, the story is being spread about how, in return for ballistic missiles, the Russians are supposedly providing Iran with nuclear technology. Iran has enough uranium now, enriched uranium to move forward and develop nuclear weapons. And now the Russians are supposed to be helping them to do that.

By the way, I don't believe that story at all. The Russians would never do a thing like this. They do not want to see nuclear weapons proliferate around the world. And why would Iran turn to the Russians when, by the way, they can get exactly the same? know-how and technology from the North Koreans, who are long-standing friends of theirs, and who have none of the concerns about proliferation that the Russians do. But anyway, you can see all of these stories circulating,

and of course the Israelis have been very busy, or at least not the Israelis themselves, but their various friends, have been very busy talking up the story of the ballistic missiles that Iran is supplying to Russia, and all of this, all of this has been done to give you the impression that there is now, this existential threat from Iran.

Iran is on the brink again of obtaining nuclear weapons. The Russians are helping. We are in this extreme danger. This is a dangerous, rogue, violent fanatical regime. And for that reason, it's not just Israel. It's in danger, but the whole West. And if they do attack Israel, then that will be a first step before a full-scale war with the West. This is a narrative that we could see being constructed at the moment.

Yeah, you have to tie in Russia because the West has to take on the axis of evil. So you have to bring in Russia, bring in a little bit of China as well, throw in North Korea. Why not? And it becomes the West going up against the axis of evil. And so they have to get directly involved. Correct. The UK, the French military. The U.S. military has to get directly involved to face down the threat.

of the axis of evil okay so that's that's obviously uh neddyehu's a game um what about the israeli economy and what about the israeli economy after this event as well because you know israel's a country that that manufactures that develops technology a lot of technology and you got to imagine that after this uh this event it's not This is not going to bode well for the business reputation of Israel and Israeli tech. I don't know. I'm just thinking about what they've done with this pager detonation, short term, they went after Hezbollah. You could say, okay, you targeted Hezbollah, even though you also got a lot of civilians as well, obviously.

And I think the world is going to change after this event. that I really think there's going to be a change in the world after after mobile devices have been weaponized in this way. But how does this affect the Israeli economy? Well, it does nothing good for it. The Israeli economy has been reeling. Yeah, absolutely. It's been reeling ever since the events of October. Israel now finds itself in a prolonged war.

That's, you know, that's using up resources. It's important to remember Israel is still a small country. It had a very well-organized. in some ways a very successful economy and partly that was, one has to say this because Netanyahu by some standards

ran the economy very well and he worked very hard to build up Israel's high tech industries and he was very successful. I mean they have very high education levels they have a lot of people who are very good at STEM subjects

they're well connected to the university sector, it's not just an Israel itself, but in the United States and Europe, and they were doing really very well there. And the technology exports were significant. And we see now how Netanyahu, the in some ways, effective and successful economic technocrat is throwing away the, that his legacy in order to achieve the objectives

of Netanyahu the geopolitician and, well, I would say the person with this incredibly grandiose vision of what Israel should be. And in some ways, by the way, I know one of the people

who has worked in the Israeli tech industry. It's very, very sad to see all the hard work that these people have done being sacrificed in this way. But there it is. I mean, he's obviously not concerned about that. Israel's economy is not doing well. It's had

I believe its credit rating downgraded, whereas it had a very strong credit rating. It's experienced a significant GDP decline over the last year. And there's no sign that that's getting any better.

And of course, this attack is going to affect the reputation of Israeli products, is going to make people a lot more wary about buying things like this from Israel. They're going to wonder what is behind it. Again, this is not going to affect the great majority of customers, but it will affect some. And when I say some, Western customers

who might have to deal, for example, with, say, Arab countries who conduct business in the Gulf, they might not want to be seen working with Israeli devices, turning up in Saudi or Qatar or wherever, with, you know, Israeli operating Israeli devices. People might be concerned about this. So it's not going to help the Israeli economy at all. But then nothing that the Netanyahu government is doing at the moment, in my opinion, works to the long-term benefit of Israel or even to the medium-term benefit of Israel.

Let me repeat again what we've said many times. After the events of October, last October, after the Hamas attack on Israel, in October last year, there were things that the Israelis could have done, which would have put them in a much stronger diplomatic position, and not just a diplomatic position, a far stronger political position, and one which might indeed have created a crisis which might have collapsed Hamas. They could have gone to the Security Council, they could have got resolutions out of the security.

Council imposing sanctions on Hamas, action against Hamas under Chapter 7. There would have been support for it. Instead, they went for this war in Gaza, which has not ended, which continues. Hamas is still there. And now, instead of rethinking that whole approach, because of, I suspect to a great extent, that Niyangco's own visceral feelings, they're drifting into a wider war in the Middle East, in Lebanon, and against Iran, none of which, in my opinion, serves Israel's long-term interests. What it's going to do, on the contrary, is put Israel under far more intense pressure.

And, of course, his plan to drag the West in is incredibly dangerous as well. And you can already see that the Iranians, for their part, are taking steps to prepare. their defenses. So Shoygu, the Russian Security Council Secretary, has just visited Iran. There are now reports that the Russians and the Iranians are about to conclude a strategic

partnership. In other words, a de facto alliance. There are Russian military supplies being sent to Iran. I don't think anybody any longer has any doubts about that. I get to guess there's intelligence sharing as well. So

overall, you can see that the military balance is actually shifting against Israel. They can pull off episodes like this page of attack, but if you look at the broader picture, the military balance is shifting against Israel. The political situation in the Middle East is deteriorating. There are doubts in Western capitals and Israel is facing legal cases in the Hague, which it would have been much better had they never for Israel had they never been brought but Netanyahu doesn't seem to know how to change course and in far from doing so in fact he is he's instead doubling down and the Israeli economy just one further victim to this to this obsession that he has and the collective

West is not prepared for for a conflict with Iran given everything that they've they've said to Ukraine. I mean, the Pentagon, according to CNN, the Pentagon has already come out and said that they're running low on just about everything when it comes to their inventories. They just don't have anything to give to Ukraine. What are they going to be able to give to Israel? I mean, well, I mean, you know the state of the European military. Yes. For the West, a war with Iran would be a complete disaster, just to say, I mean, it could very, very easily spiral out of control. At the very least, one can imagine, easily imagine, the Iranians taking steps to block the Straits of Hormuz. We've seen that the United States can't open the Red Sea to shipping in the face of what the Houthis are doing.

Just imagine what the Iranians can do at the Straits of Hormuz. We see that the technology ballads is shifting against the West and Israel in the Middle East as well. We've had Houthi missile strike now against Israel, supposedly using a hypersonic missile. I have great doubts about whether that was actually a hypersonicic missile. But the fact was it was a missile of some kind, and it does seem to have got very close to having an actual impact. And some people say it did have an impact. I mean, I don't know. But the fact is, the West does not need a war in the Middle East.

it would be an absolute disaster. I don't think Netanyahu is interested or concerned about that. I think, as I said, he's now pushing forward because the Israel, which, to say frankly, I mean, I am one of these people who thinks that Netanyahu cares about Israel. I mean, I don't think everything that he does is as opportunistic and as cynical and as self-interested as, as people say, I think that

fails to understand the man but the Israel that he wants to see his idea of Israel is now being threatened his policies that he's been pursuing for the last 20 years are now at risk

and his response is to double and treble down regardless of the risks that are increasing all around him All right. We will end the video there. The duran.com. We are on Rumble, Odyssey, bitch, shoot, telegram, Rock Finn, and Twitter X, and go to the Duran shop, pick up some merch. The link is in the description box down below. Pick up some merch like the shirts that we are wearing today in this video. Take care.