The Duran Podcast - Netanyahu sees off Biden, meets Kamala

Episode Date: July 27, 2024

Netanyahu sees off Biden, meets Kamala

All right, Alexander, let's talk about Netanyahu's trip to Washington. We had a speech to Congress. We had a meeting with Trump. We had a meeting with Biden. We had a meeting with Kamala Harris. What are your thoughts? Well, my own thoughts are very straightforward. I think Netanyahu is now in the ascendant.

He's seen off Biden. Biden was attempting to, the Biden administration was at one point clearly attempting to try to get Netanyahu to step down. They were trying to push him towards a ceasefire. They left it far too late, far too long. They gave Netanyahu a blank check back in October. Netanyahu cashed it for all it was worth, and he's now come out the conclusive winner. And I think you saw that, the dynamics of that, in the meeting between Netanyahu and Biden himself, Netanyahu seemed full of confidence. And I thought that he showed in Congress what a powerful and skillful political operator he continues to be. He was able to mobilize an enormous amount of support in Congress.

And I think for the moment at least, Netanyahu is clearly in control. He's seen off the challenge from the Biden administration. He's going to continue his war in guard. and he's now thinking clearly about the next war against Lebanon. And he's even floating ideas about creating a NATO-type system in the Middle East, which I suspect he's now going to try to sell to the incoming Trump administration, or what he expects to be the incoming Trump administration. So, you know, clearly Netanyahu and the Ascendant, feeling that the situation, has, you know, he's got the initiative now and he's trying to shape the politics of the

Middle East of the future. That was my immediate thought about all of this. Yeah, even though the Biden White House has written a blank check to Netanyahu, Netanyahu and Biden never liked each other. They've never liked each other from before Biden became president. They never got along. But the Biden White House did give Netanyahu a blank check to do whatever he wanted, and we've seen the results. So Netanyahu has outlasted Biden. He outlasted Biden. He outlasted the peace process, if you can call it that, the ceasefire process, ceasefire diplomacy, that Blinken and Sullivan were conducting. If you could say they were conducting diplomacy, I don't think it was much of diplomacy. But, okay, they made several trips.

to the Middle East. And there was a lot of talk about ceasefire, multiple ceasefires, which really never resulted in much of anything. But he did meet with all of the leaders in Washington, D.C. He spoke to Congress, and he spoke to the Democratic Party candidate, Kamala Harris, and he spoke to the Republican candidate Trump. Everyone outside of Congress told Netanyahu that the war in Gaza must come to an end? What are your thoughts there? You have Kamala Harris saying the war must come to an end. You have Trump saying the war must come to an end.

And even Biden for whatever it counts, whatever it means, saying the war must come to an end. What do you think Netanyahu is going to take away from all of these meetings? I don't think he's going to pay much attention. I think he's going to escalate the situation between now and November. I think he's going to say to himself, he has a window of opportunity to intensify the war in Gaza in November. He was talking in very defiant language about the war in Gaza. He was using Chichilian language, give us the tools and we'll finish the job.

He talked about an indefinite Israeli occupation of Gaza. I think this is what he's thinking about at the moment. And yes, everybody tells him this in the United States, but he's very quickly assessed the situation that nobody's going to put any kind of pressure on him to pull back. And I think he also understands that for the moment at least, he has this opening. So I think he's going to intensify the war in Gaza over the next three months. and I think he's also already looking to prepare some kind of as I said strategic alliance in the Middle East against Iran and he wants the backing of the United States for that. What might slow the process down is this. If Donald Trump wins in November and continues to hold of the fact that he wants the war in Gaza to end, which I think he will, then at that point, but not before Netanyahu might start to shift his policies

because he clearly has little to note time, as you correctly said, for Biden. I do think he takes Kamala Harris seriously. I think he doesn't particularly want Kamala Harris to win anyway because I think he senses that Kamala Harris is more aligned with the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, which Netanyahu spoke in a coded way very negatively about during his speech to Congress, whereas I think he does take Trump seriously, and I think he understands that an incoming president, Trump, insisting on a ceasefire, is in a stronger position to put pressure on Netanyahu than Biden is.

But for the moment at least, I think he feels that he has a, open a free hand at least for the next three months and I think he's going to use it to every possible degree that he can so I suspect an intensified operation in Gaza and more pressure on the Israeli army to start a campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon which is something that a lot of the people in northern Lebanon in northern Israel are demanding the force that is acting, the only force that is acting as a restraint on Netanyahu at the moment is the Israeli military. They're not keen on this operation in Lebanon, and they too probably want to see the war in Gaza brought to an end. But unless you have a president in the United States

who's prepared to start really imposing, you know, red lines, and basically perhaps aligning himself with the military, the military people in Israel who are against the war. I don't think there's any realistic prospect that Netanyaki himself will pay much attention. Yes, so there are a lot of reports saying that Netanyahu got a green light from Congress to go into Lebanon to start a war with Hezbollah. but was that what he was really looking for? Was he just looking for Congress to say, we'll support you if you do go into Hezbole? I mean, was he looking for the U.S.'s permission?

No. Because listening to you, it sounds like he really doesn't care about, at least not permission from Biden, Kamala, or Trump. He's not looking for them to say, okay, also. We'll give you the green light to go into Hezbollah to go into Lebanon and take on Hezbollah. It sounds like Netanyahu just wanted to know that Congress will support Israel with weapons and money. I mean, at the end of the day, that's what he needs. He doesn't need permission. He needs support.

If, you know, Congress, the U.S. government had previously told him we are not prepared. We oppose an Israeli operation into Lebanon. Well, then he might need permission. But as it stands, he's not. Now he doesn't need permission because there's no real opposition, political opposition, convincing opposition in the United States any longer to what he wants to do. So he's got strong support in Congress. He demonstrated that.

He got, oh goodness knows how many standing ovations. I've seen some people say 58, others say as many as 70. I didn't count them myself. But he's clearly got strong support in Congress. He's got he's rallied the support of his political base in the, his political support in Washington. So he feels confident now that he can move forward with an operation in Lebanon and the United States will support him in it. And that's really how he thinks of it, not getting permission, but building up support in Congress. And just pushing Biden and Lincoln and Sullivan and all of those people aside.

Now, of course, if he does launch an operation against Hezbollah in Lebanon, that is going to be a very difficult thing for Kamala Harris, because Kamala Harris wants to unite the Democratic Party behind her. She wants to unite the progressive base of the Democratic Party behind her. She probably would not want to see a military operation by Netanyahu in Lebanon, by Yenna. Israel in Lebanon. But why would Netanyahu want Kamala Harris to be elected president in November? He's not got a good, strong relationship with her. He has had in the past a strong relationship with Trump. I think he feels on balance that he'd be more comfortable with Trump being elected than he would with Kamala Harris being elected. So he's not seeking permission. He's just assessed the ground in Washington, concluded that there's nothing to stop him, doing what he wants to do for domestic political reasons within Israel. And for that reason, he's going to go back to Israel and he's going to try to do it.

The only constraint on him is not from the United States. It is from his own military. Why would, I mean, this is the thing that I'm trying to reconcile. out, why would Netanyahu believe that Biden would be better for him? As far as the war is concerned, if the way I'm looking at it is when Trump is saying that the war needs to end, I imagine, because Trump doesn't really have much to gain by saying the war is going to end, campaign-wise, vote-wise, politically, because you can make the argument that Kamala Harris, she's, yes, she is more aligned with the progressive side of the Democrat

party, maybe. Some people may argue that as well. But that's the way they're positioning her. That's the way she's positioned herself. But my thinking is she's saying that the war has to end because they're looking at the Muslim vote, especially in a state like Michigan. So that's very important for them. So if they can create distance from Biden and win back some of those voters in Michigan, that clearly said a lot of the voters in Michigan, the Muslim voters said, we're not voting for Biden after the disaster of Gaza. After everything that's happened there, we're not voting Democrat, we're not going to vote Biden, we're done.

So my thinking is they're trying to create a Kamala Harris who would, who's distant from Biden's policy in Gaza in order to win over those voters in Michigan. So she definitely has politically campaign wise. She has something to gain by saying the war needs to end. Now, if she were to become president, I don't think her policy, her administration policy towards Israel would, or towards the conflict in Gaza, would change much at all. That would be a lot of, it would be support for Netanyahu and Israel, the blank check with a lot of diplomatic incompetence.

You're going to see a lot of foreign policy incompetence, like what you saw from Blinken and Sullivan. Trump, on the other hand, is never going to really win those votes in, in Michigan, the Muslim votes in Michigan. So he's not really going after that voting block. But he is saying that he wants to wind down the war in Israel. And so if you're Netanyahu, you would imagine that Trump's saying he wants to wind down the war in Israel is probably more believable than Kamala saying she wants to wind down the war in Israel.

I mean, I'm just trying to figure out what's going through Netanyahu's mind here as he's maneuvering. Yeah. The statements about the conflict, about the war, the conflict in Israel and Gaza, with the political campaigning, especially with Kabbalah and trying to win over the very critical state of Michigan. Right. Now, this is where I think Netanyahu is making one of his major miscalculations, because I think you're absolutely right. But I don't think that's what Netanyahu himself understands. in his, in Trump's first term, Trump and Netanyahu got on very well together.

And they worked together and Netanyahu got an awful lot out of the Trump administration. Recognition of Jerusalem as Israel's capital. The Abraham Accords, all sorts of things like that. And I think that Netanyahu looks back on that period. Remember, he's got a very intense political situation. in Israel itself to deal with. So I don't think he's bandwidth. I don't think he understands that the Trump movement is moving on from that.

And I think he says to himself, well, this is, I got a really good personal relationship with Trump. We liked each other. I got on very well with his son-in-law, remember, who played such a big role in the, you know, all the negotiations. what's going to happen if Trump wins is I'm going to have a friend back in the White House and I look at the Republican Party and the people who are protesting against me and who are holding up placards in Congress are not Republicans and the people who are protesting in the universities are not Republicans. So from my point of view, it makes a lot more sense to have Donald Trump back in the White House

the Republicans in control of Congress, and that will solidify my position in Israel. The Republicans don't like Iran very much, so everything will work very much to my advantage. I think that is his calculation. Now, I think he is completely misjudging the political mood in the United States. Because I think that Donald Trump this time, and I think J.D. Vance definitely. Yes, they are friends. of Israel. But as they have made very clear, they do not want war anywhere. They don't want war in Ukraine with Russia. They don't want war in the Middle East. They want to take a strong line

against China, but they don't want a war with China either. They want to focus increasingly on American problems. And I think that is this time very much going to be the major impetus behind the Trump movement. It's the thing that the Republican grassroots also want. It's why they're supporting Trump and Vance and why Trump and Vance are within, have a good prospect of winning the White House. And I think that if Trump and Vance are elected on that ticket,

they're going to have to reflect those views and those feelings. So I think that Netanyahu might in fact find that when Trump says that he wants to see the war end and that he wants to see peace in the Middle East and quiet and restored quiet to the Middle East, he actually means it and that he has a united administration behind him. So I think this is where Netanyahu is in danger of miscalculating. Netanyahu has consistently, ever since he became Israel's dominant political figure, overplayed his hand, relying upon American support. And I think he's in danger of doing the same thing all over again.

He assumes that once he's got rid of the shambolic Democrat administration, which contains all sorts of people who are critical of Israel and critical of him. You have a solid support in the White House and in Congress. And I think what he's going to find is that he's misjudging the mood in America and amongst the Republicans and within the Trump-Vance administration completely. What's the deal with this NATO-Middle East alliance that he's throwing out there? The Abraham Alliance is what he called it.

What countries are going to participate in this? And he already has NATO, the United States and the Europeans. You know, they support him pretty much to the full. So, I mean, what does he need a NATO Middle East? Well, again, this is where I think he's not keeping up with events, because I think what he wants to do is he wants to go back to the situation as it existed before Joe Biden became president of the United States in 2021. He's looking back to the time of the Abraham Accords,

to the time when Israel and Saudi Arabia were de facto allies, when nobody seemed to be too bothered about Palestinians anymore. And I think he thinks he could just real events, back to what existed then, make build up Iran once again as the huge bogey that everybody's afraid of, including the Saudis, including the Americans, including everybody. And I think he's discounting the realities of the huge changes that have happened, not just in the Middle East, where the Iranians and the Saudis have reconciled and where both have joined the bricks and where Chinese influence is expanding, but also the changes that have taken place in the United

States as well, where there is even more exhaustion and disillusion about foreign wars and foreign interventions than previously. So he thinks that he can go back to the world before 2021, build on the Abraham Accords, convert the Abraham Accords into a formal anti-Iranian alliance, bring the Gulf states and Saudi Arabia into that, use the United States to help him do it, and in reality I think he is living in a world of the past that doesn't exist anymore and which has passed him

by. That's the reality I think about the situation at the moment. All right, any other thoughts or should we wrap? Yeah, the thing is, and this is again something, I think that Netanyahu doesn't understand one way or the other,

the Biden administration chaotic, disorganized and even disastrous as it was, has changed the situation in the Middle East and done so in a radical way. As, by the way, did the Obama administration before. The old alliances that existed in the Middle East have fractured. The Saudis and all of the others are saying to themselves, we can't just rely on the Americans anymore. We've seen what the Americans can be like with Obama and Biden. We've made new friends. We are comfortable with those friends.

We are solid with those friends. We've now buried the hatchet with the Iranians, and that's working out reasonably well for us. So I think that Netanyahu doesn't understand that. He tends to think of the last four years as a nightmare which is ending, and he doesn't understand how important that four years has been changing the whole political geography of the Middle East. Just as for bad or for worse, the Biden administration and what it has done has also completely changed the political geography in Europe.

Through their incompetence. No, their incompetence, they're chaotic mismanagement of things. They've done everything wrong. And they've, but that has long-term effects which leaders need to deal with. And Netanyahu is in denial about it. All right. We will end the video there. The durand.com.

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