The Duran Podcast - New and improved BRICS to emerge in South Africa. Morocco wants to join

Episode Date: August 19, 2023

New and improved BRICS to emerge in South Africa. Morocco wants to join The Duran: Episode 1673

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the BRICS summit. It is finally starting after a lot of discussion, debate, the ICC arrest warrant, whether to move it to China, whether Putin was going to show up in person or via video, and then Lavrov said that, what the Russian government said, the Lavrov would be the person representing Russia in South Africa, and Putin would appear via video. So anyway, it's finally here. There's talk about currency, a new currency being launched, new members joining BRICS. I think Morocco is the latest country that said they're interested in joining BRICS.

Anyway, what are your thoughts on the BRICS summit? What should we be focused on? What do you think is going to come out of this summit? I think the big event is going to be, well, there's going to be two big issues. The first is this setting up of a financial system as an alternative to the West. And I think it's now clear they're not going to announce when this summit begins next week. You know, a new BRICS currency. I mean, the framework for that, the structure for that has not yet been created.

But I think they will announce, or at least they will take steps towards moves to creating the structures. for that. And I think we will be hearing and seeing announcements about this. The second thing that's going to happen is whether there's going to be BRICS expansion. Now, the South Africans are inviting 60 countries. 60 countries are coming to this meeting. Apparently, even more wants to attend. This is turning into an enormous summit meeting. And there is now real debate, real discussion about whether. or not to move ahead with expansion or not. India seemed at one point to be saying,

look, this is going forward too fast. Let's slow a little. China backs expansion. Brazil backs expansion. After some thought, so does Russia. So India, it seems, has decided to go along. The key country to look at, actually the two key countries to look at,

the two most important countries, are Saudi Arabia and Iran. Now, if Saudi Arabia joins, we can be quite sure that all of these latest moves that we've been hearing, the negotiations between the US and Saudi Arabia, which we've discussed in another video, the idea that you come back to the West's fold,

all that has failed. If that's, if South Africa joins, if Saudi Arabia joins, then we can say definite, that the Saudis, they've decided that the way forward for them is Bricks. And remember, they're the biggest, well, they're one of the big oil exporters. They play a key role in the oil market.

If they involve themselves in the discussion to set up this Brick's financial system and decide to become part of that, than two of the big oil exporters, Saudi Arabia and Russia will be involved. That will start to look like the end of the petra dollar. That will be a big blow to the position of the dollar as a reserve currency. So we need to see Saudi Arabia, its decisions, whether it gets an invitation, whether it accepts that invitation, what steps towards it joining Bricks?

Saudi Arabia joining Bricks are taken at this summit meeting all of that is going to be key and the other one as I said is Iran now my own view is that it would be all but inconceivable that Bricks would invite Saudi Arabia and not Iran

I think they would want to maintain a balance between these two countries Iran is another big oil producer. The Iran has obviously experienced sanctions, Western sanctions. At one time experienced UN sanctions. The UN sanctions is no longer an issue because as part of the JCPOA that Obama negotiated when he was president, most of those UN sanctions were lifted. The US sanctions are still there, but it looks as if all of that is in the past. It's becoming historic. Russia is now investing heavily in the Iranian economy.

So, of course, is China. Abraham Reizi, the Iranian president, had a telephone conversation with Putin. Undoubtedly, that would have looked forward towards the BRICS summit. Putin himself is not going to be there. The word is that he's going to be represented by Lavrov. But I wonder also whether Mishustin, Mishust. the prime minister might also be going, we'll see. But one way or the other, the decisions are being made

and all of the things are sloshing into place. Okay, so what you really described is one issue in a way. I mean, you said two issues, but it sounds to me like expansion and the new currency are interconnected. Yes. It's about the petrodollars, about Saudi Arabia, Iran, the new currency. Yeah.

I imagine this new currency is going to be more for trade, the trading of resources and commodities, rather than it's not going to be an actual currency that me and you are going to, for example. Well, absolutely. This is absolutely correct. And can I just stress again that it's not going to be a single currency. We're not talking about the creation of a single currency block. O'Neill, the economist who first coined the expression bricks, has actually given an interview to the Financial Times,

in which he said that the BRICS idea of creating a single currency was a crazy one. People have read that article, I think it's important to stress that he's not what he's being talked about. I don't know where O'Neill got that idea from. It is a pure trading mechanism. That is what is being set up here. It is what was discussed back in 1940. at the Bretton Woods conference. J.M. Keynes wanted unit of account

that would serve to facilitate trade between countries and the bricks have taken up that idea and are now running with it. And that's what they're working towards setting up at this conference in Johannesburg, which will start on the 22nd of August. Now, you mentioned Morocco. Now, the fact that Morocco wants to join,

Briggs is really very interesting because of course Morocco has historically been a stalwart ally of the US. There's even reports, for example, that it supplied weapons to Ukraine. And this is an interesting story because in fact what happened was that Morocco did at one time buy some tanks, it seems, from the Russians, T-72 tanks. it sent them to the Czech Republic for repair and the Czechs under US pressure instead of returning them to Morocco, sent them on to Ukraine. And the Moroccans were absolutely furious about this.

They complained about it to the Czechs and I'm not saying that this is the reason why Morocco is now thinking of joining the bricks but it gives you some idea of the way the ground is shifting and perhaps some of the attitudes that have brought that about. Okay, now, one of the most recognized disputes in Bricks comes from China and India, with the border dispute between China and India. There is news that this may also get resolved.

Either at this summit or at least the foundation will be in place to resolve it, to resolve this border dispute after the summit. What about China and India? I think that it will be resolved, but probably not at this summit. I think that's the first thing to say. I think that the mutual interest on both sides to resolve this dispute is very strong. And the question is, how do they get there? How do they reach the point of sitting down and actually constructively negotiating a resolution to this?

Now, the thing to say is this, in India itself, there is a lot of emotion over this issue. It goes all the way back to 1962 when the dispute basically exploded into a war, a war in which China comprehensively defeated India. And India has never really reconciled itself to that defeat. and the Indian government will be looking to Beijing for some concessions. Now, as far as the Chinese are concerned, at various times, they have signalled that they are prepared to make certain concessions. I don't want to oversimplify what is an incredibly complicated issue, but I think that if the two sides get together, sit down, and talk, very much like the way in which the Chinese-Russian territorial dispute was resolved

with the Russians actually making concessions, which you would struggle to find on a map. I mean, a couple of islands in the Usuri River were transferred by Russia to China. Uninhabited islands, but things of that kind happened, and there was a resolution. So it seems to me the same would be the case here. The lands transfers would need to be bigger. But again, we are talking about uninhabited territory in the Himalayas. The major concern for China, I think, is not retaining control of this territory. It is securing its border with India and ensuring whatever line the border follows

is a defendable one. So I think there will be negotiations and I think that it will eventually be resolved. But this is a very complex issue as I said the strong emotions about it especially in India it's going to take time

but perhaps the framework for negotiations can be agreed at the summit. Now if that does happen if we do have a framework for negotiations if the negotiations then move forward and if we see a reconciliation and a rapprochement between India and China, then of course that is a massive game changer.

In the 1950s, when China and India were, to put it mildly, far less wealthy and powerful countries than they are today, they were actually friends, and even then, because of their size, that had a big effect on the international system. The border dispute ended that, and for a time they became outright enemies, and since then they'd be these very uneasy partners in the bricks. If India and China can resolve this issue once and for all,

then they can move forward. They can become partners, perhaps even friends again, though, as I said, there are other issues in the relationship, and that would make a massive change in international relations. Now, I know a lot of people say this will never happen. It's only a couple of years since we began the Duran that people in the West have finally begun to understand that the Russian-Chinese rapprochement was for real.

I mean, I'm sure you remember all those people who were saying this isn't really happening. The two countries hate each other. They're actually friendemies, they're not real friends. This is purely a friendship of convenience. It's only in the last year or so that the penny has finally dropped and people understand that China and Russia are friends. We're going to hear exactly the same thing said about any reconciliation between China.

In India, it's not possible, it's not happening, there's too much mistrust, hostility is too strong, and then, of course, one day they will wake up and they'll find it's happened. well Iran, Saudi Arabia. Iran, Saudi Arabia is the same. Who would have ever thought? Yeah, exactly.

Well, that's a better example, yeah. Yeah. Is this the most important Brick Summit that you can remember? I mean, and what is the United States saying? What's the Biden White House saying? What are they thinking as they're looking on at what's about to happen? Right. It is the most important Brick Summit because this is the point where Bricks

evolves between from basically a club you know a place where a rather a venue

where the leaders of certain countries sort of meet and talk about things and discuss the state

of the world with each other anyway it leaves that behind and crystallises into a proper international

organization and I yeah one that's I know the Chinese and the Russians hate this word, but I will use it for convenience. An organisation which starts to acquire something of the quality of a block. There's already people who are saying that Bricks is becoming the alternative pole to the G7.

So this is what I think we'll see in Johannesburg. Now, you know, the Americans have tried, the West has tried to put spokes in the wheel. I think the ICC warrant was to a great extent about that, keeping one of the key bricks leaders away from Johannesburg, trying to slow the process down. We've seen this big attempt by the US to win over the Saudis, to get the Saudis back on side. All of these offers, we've discussed this in another programme,

offers of ultimately nuclear weapons, because that's how I read what I read the Washington, sorry, the Wall Street Journal article to mean. So they're trying to do all of these things. But I can just say something about the Biden administration. I think ultimately they are still very much in denial about this process. Just as the US was so long in denial about the Chinese Russian rapprochement, just as it never computed the possibility that Saudi Arabia and Iran,

might reconcile. So they can't quite bring themselves to accept that all of these meetings all that's going on in bricks is for real. And you know, whenever a problem within bricks arises,

they'll say, well, you see, that just proves this isn't really happening. It's all still just a talking shop. We can just go on exactly as we are. So that, that I think, is the dominant feeling within the administration.

And I think it's the view the president takes. I think the president, Joe Biden, lives very much still in the world of the past. He probably doesn't even know that he is in the present. So, I mean, the point is he doesn't understand the extent to which the world has changed from the world that he used to know in the 80s when he first ran for president, by the way, or even more the 90s. and I think he just doesn't ultimately take any of this seriously.

Yeah, well, you know, I don't think it's a stretch to say that this is this change of bricks from being a venue and event to turning into, let's say, a block is Biden's fault. I mean, this is the Biden White House's fault, isn't it? I mean, Ukraine conflict. If Biden didn't, didn't try to get regime change in Russia, if the U.S. and the EU didn't place sanctions on Russia, all of these things that we've talked about over the past year and a half. I think you can make a strong argument to say that, you know, bricks would not be evolving into this. Well, absolutely. And this is completely correct. And I mean, it's even affected how the Indians

think about this. And of course, the Indians have been using the U.S. I think this is becoming increasingly clear in order to try and gain leverage over the Chinese. I mean, you know, Which is, by the way, fine. That is what countries do. You hedge. You've got a difficult relationship with China. You improve your relationship with the US. And then you use your improved relationship with the US in order to try and improve your relationship with China.

It's classic diplomacy. But what the Indians have found increasingly is that you can't work with the US simply in that way, that you get an unending stream of demands. So the US wants to shape Indian commercial policy, whom India buys its oil from, whom India buys its weapons from. It wants India to become ever more heavily involved in the quad. It wants India to support Alcus,

this alliance system that the US is trying to create in the Pacific. it makes demands of India about how India should administer the G20 meeting in Delhi it's trying to get India to agree to a statement of the G20 which will criticise Russia over Ukraine even though the Indians have said

that under no circumstances will they do that and of course back at the time the G7 summit which Modi attended they forced Modi or race, they put pressure on Modi and got him to agree to a meeting with Zelensky which went incredibly badly in which the Indians came away furious

and by the way the G7 came away furious as well so I mean you know the Indians have gradually found you can't really work with the US and certainly not with this administration in a balanced way. With them, it's all or nothing. You're either fully with us or you're against us. And for a country like India, that's unacceptable.

All right. Anything else that you'd like to add? Yeah, I just... Or maybe member states of bricks? Yes. I mean, this is, I think, the fact that there's this huge flood of countries wanting now to join the Bricks. is proof that Ricks has now arrived.

I mean, this is no longer a club. Countries around the world don't perceive it as a club any longer. And the point is that especially since the Biden administration has assumed office, the pressure on countries from the Biden administration to follow the Washington line has become unbearable. We see this in West Africa at the moment when the US is pulling with France, are pulling every string and lever to try to get

ECOWAS to intervene in Nuzhou. For example, and what's happening is that even countries friendly to the United States or formally friendly to the United States like Morocco are saying enough, we can't take this anymore. And that is why they're joining Bricks, wanting to join Bricks.

So what you said about the US, the administration, actually cementing this process, where you can see that, it's visible, it's there. Contrast that with all those bizarre summits of democracy, which Biden sort of called together as a kind of alternative UN. Well, a couple of countries showed up. They didn't take much interest. Apparently fewer and fewer are interested in doing so.

I mean, that has none of the enthusiasm and the energy behind it that Briggs does. Yeah, I agree. The energy, the momentum is definitely with Bricks. Ricks, yeah. No doubt about it. All right, we will leave it there. The durand.com. We are on Rumble, Odyssey, bitch, shoot, telegram and rock fin, and go to the Duran shop.

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