The Duran Podcast - New ATACMS airbase plan as Ukraine offensive plan fades

Episode Date: July 3, 2024

New ATACMS airbase plan as Ukraine offensive plan fades

All right, Alexander, let's do an update on what is going on in Ukraine. And let's start things off with the situation on the front lines. And I also want to ask you, as you're going to talk about what's going on on the front lines, I want to ask you about the reports from Forbes, a couple of other mainstream media outlets, as well as Zelensky's interview to the Philadelphia Inquirer, I believe, where a part of the interviews, the reports and a part of Zelensky's interview were focused on using the tacombs to hit Russian air bases, specifically a Russian airbase in Varonis, where they claim the, the, the, the, uh, the, uh, the, uh, are taken off to launch the, the, uh, FAB, uh, 3,000.

thousand attacks, the glide bomb attacks. And I saw over the last couple of days, a lot of articles talking about getting Biden's permission to use attack of missiles to hit this airbase with the belief that this air base is very exposed as a target and you would be able to do a lot of damage. Ukraine military would be able to do a lot of damage if they had the attack comes to hit this air base. This would be one way to neutralize the success. and the effects of the devastating glide bombs. Anyway, maybe you can package that into your discussion of what's going on on the front lines. In fact, I'm going to start with that.

Because there is an admission about the effect of the glide bomb. There's an admission on all sides that this has been a type of wonder weapon. When we talk about wonder weapons, this has kind of been a type of wonder weapon for Russia. Yes. This is, again, a wonderful example of how. planning and preparation for war is conducted on the Ukrainian and Western side. So you're coming up with a cunning plan to attack an air base in Voronesh. And of course, you tell the Russians about it weeks in advance.

You tell them, you know, this is what we're going to do. You see, this air base is exposed. It's not particularly well defended. It's in a strategic location. So let's, let's strike at this air base. and let's talk about doing that weeks in advance. And let's, of course, also violate the Russian red lines because we're going to be using attack missiles to do it,

which the Russians have said is a red line, using long-range cruise missiles to conduct attacks on an air base so close to the front lines. We're not so close to the front lines inside Russia. Putin has already said clearly, that is a red line. So, you know, we talk about it. We inform the Russians. We give the Russians every reason to prepare to defend that air base so that when the attack of missiles are launched, which, by the way, they will be. I think, you know, when we see these reports, we can be

confident that this decision has already been made. I think that's the first thing to say. I mean, you know, we are heading towards this enormous further escalation violating the Russian red lines, incentivizing the Russians to provide even more deadly weapons to various opponents of the United States. There's a report circulating, for example, that Putin has now contacted the Saudis and has asked the Saudis if they object. to Russia supplying anti-ship missiles, advanced

supersonic anti-ship missiles to the Houthi militia in Yemen. I mean, just think what that means. So we are going to violate the Russian red lines in order to carry out a plan of which we've already alerted the Russians fully in advance.

So the Russians will disperse their aircraft from this base. The Sucoid 34s have long range. There are plenty of air bases in Russia. There are lots of them. The Russians also have capabilities for in-flight fueling. It is not going to have the effectiveness that people think. And besides, and this is a point I've been making in program after program, Brian Balletick has also made it, the attackers is not proving anywhere near as a effective as people say it is. The Russians are shooting them down in ever greater numbers, and they've actually managed to obtain now certain almost intact specimens, apparently,

and they now have a great idea of how the attack and missiles work, and their air defences are going to become even more effective. So we're going to violate the Russian red lines. provoke the Russians into doing things to us, to the West, which are completely contrary to our own interests and will put us in a very much worse geopolitical position. We're going to infuriate the Russian people even further because we're going to have missile strikes carried out using American missiles on bases on Russian territory. And we're all going to do. do this in a way that's not going to make any difference to the ultimate outcome of the war. And we're telling the Russians all about this in advance.

So, I mean, it's a classic example of the way in which the administration, because these leaks come from the administration, the administration has run this entire war. It's all about news management, things are not going well on the front lines, they want to find some means to escalate because they're all about unending escalation. And they want to tell the American people in advance of the election, well, you know, things are bad in Ukraine, but they're not so bad because we can still turn them round. We can strike at the Russians where it hurts them. We can attack their air bases. The Russians won't respond, which of course they will respond, but they won't respond, and that will mean that the Fab 3,000s and 1500s and

500s are not going to be as devastating as they have been up to this point. It's just stupid. It's incredibly foolish way of going about this, but that is, of course, precisely what they're going to do. All right. So during the interview from the Philadelphia Inquirer, the report, quarter after speaking with Zelensky came to the conclusion that in the Harkov direction, things have pretty much stabilized. And Biden's providing of weapons to Ukraine was a major factor in creating a stabilization in the Harkov direction, preventing Russia from taking the city of Harkov. And the problems now lie in the Gombas. That's not what's going on is it. By the way, by the way, Alexander, let me just read you very quickly. One thing that Zelensky said with regards to what is happening with casualties. And this is a quote. First of all, manpower. Really, they, in reference to the Russians, have much more people and really we are taking care of our people more. But today we have one dead Ukrainian for civil.

Russians on the eastern and northern fronts, Zelensky said. British intelligence sources say the Russians are now losing 1,200 men a day, the highest rate of the entire war. Even for a Russian military that treats soldiers like cannon fodder, this ratio is untenable. This is just a part of the interview that Zelensky gave. It seems like this is an inversion of reality. It is a complete inversion of reality. I mean, we have the Media Zone project which tracks Russian casualties fairly, I think, fairly precisely using open sources.

And they don't show anything like this kind of number. And of course, Putin puts it in exactly the other way. He says that Russian casualties are around a fifth of Ukrainian casualties and perhaps even less than that. So, you know, it is a complete inversion. but this story that the situation on the Kharkov front lines has been stabilized and that the only problems are in Dombas is again it's a media narrative which over the next couple of weeks is going to start to fall apart it is already on the brink of falling apart you remember we've been through this before back after the Ukrainian offensive last year there was this long period a couple of weeks, not a lot period, a couple of weeks, when they were saying that the situation on the front lines was in stalemate. And then Avdavka fell.

And then there was panic. And then there was all sorts of stories about sending troops. Macron was talking about it and all kinds of things. And then once again, over the last couple of days, that couple of weeks, ever since the decision was made to allow Western weapons, to be used to strike at Russian positions inside Russia. The narrative again has been floated that the situation has stabilized. And of course they know that the situation has not been stabilized.

And you yourself mentioned earlier how they are admitting to the effectiveness of the fab bombs that the Russian Air Force is dropping. So they know that the situation, they basically know that the situation has not stabilized. So now they're going to allow the attackam's missile strikes or authorise the attackam's missile strikes on the air base in Voronish. And of course, that will be the next turn in the narrative. That has stabilised the situation. The situation is not stabilised. Now, over the last couple of weeks, in the Kharkov area, there have been report after report, all are

from Ukrainian sources about how Ukraine was going to launch a big counter-attack in the Kharkov area to drive back the Russians on the eve of the NATO summit meeting that's now coming up. And what has happened instead is we've now had a whole cascade of information from the front lines in Kharkov region. and they show that far from the Ukrainians being able to mount a successful counter-offensive, Ukrainian troops in the Kharkov region are increasingly refusing orders to attack, and it is the Russians who are advancing. Now, especially over the last couple of hours, we've had a lot of information coming from this city, this town called Volcham. which is where the main battles have been taking place.

And it looks like in the northern part of Volchansk, which is where most of the fighting is, and which is the more strategic part of Volchansk, the Russians have made major advances, that they've broken through Ukrainian defences, and that their armoured forces are now sweeping through the city, and that this particular town is likely to fall at some point over the next few days or perhaps weeks. So far from the situation, having stabilized, what has happened is that the Ukrainians have thrown huge numbers of men to try to hold back the Russians.

They've slowed the Russian advances in Khadakhrakev region for a few weeks at a terror. terrible cost and the Russians are continuing now to advance and it's likely as if it looks likely that this defense that the Ukrainians have cobbled together in Volchansk and perhaps in Kharkov might be about to collapse and the same is true everywhere else on the battlefronts we'd be getting a huge amount of news from Dombas and the news there is is extremely grim. We've had information that in one important town, Chassefjar, the Russians seem to be in the process of clearing the major fortified position that the Ukrainians have in the west of that town, which is the key position that the Ukrainians have in defending Chasafiard. In another important town called Toretsk in central Dombas,

Ukrainian defences have completely collapsed. This was expected to be one of the most heavily fortified and heavily defended positions that Ukraine had of all. And instead, the Russians have been able to penetrate the defense lines and dig deep into Torek. And there are some suggestions that the entire, front line there is also likely to collapse at some point within the next few weeks or months. And of course the biggest crisis of all is now happening a bit further south in the area of Avdewka

where the Russians some weeks ago captured this important village of Ocheretino. They've been advancing west from that village towards the important Ukraine. held strategically important town of Pakrovsk. Over the last couple of hours, it looks like all of the defence lines east of Pakrovsk have collapsed. The Russians are pushing through, and it looks like they're on the brink of cutting off the main supply roads from Pakrovsk for the Ukrainian army, further east confronting the Russians in the other parts of Dombas. So overall, the situation on the front lines for Ukraine is becoming disastrous. What Zelensky is doing when he talks about the Russians having all these very, very high losses,

what he's really doing is he's admitting his own. He's coming round gradually to telling us that situation, on the front lines is very, very bad. The Russians are swamping the Ukrainians with machines, with drones, with tanks, with fab bombs that we were talking about. The Ukrainians aren't able to hold them back and this oncoming tide of the Russians

which ebbs and flows sometimes, but ultimately it continues to remove relentlessly westwards and the Ukrainian defense lines in Dombas throughout Dombas and across the entire line of control are now looking increasingly threadbare even as Ukrainian losses are now spiking to levels that we have never seen at any other time in the war. Yeah. Well Zeletsky says that these losses are untenable for the Russian military. just admission through projection.

He's basically saying that it's untenable for us, for Ukraine. Yes. But what happens when Russia opens up another front in the Sumi direction? Possible, probable. What happens then? What happens when Zelensky fires Siersky? His position now is. is very iffy. He's not liked by the military. He's not liked by the soldiers. It looks like

Zelensky is not so hot on Siersky anymore. What happens to the narrative then? What's going on with Ukraine's electricity situation? I'm reading reports saying that it's much worse than they've been letting on. And as winter, as the summer wraps up and we get into winter, it's going to be an extremely difficult winter for Ukraine. How is Ukraine going to make it through all of these difficulties? I just rattled off three difficulties. You've been talking about the situation on the front line. Obviously, there's a manpower issue.

There's a soldier issue. Heavy losses. Getting money from the collective West from the United States is not going to be easy anymore. How does Ukraine make it through the next? five, six months, given all of these problems that are just stacking up. Well, it's important not to give a particular end point, end date to this, but, you know, famously. No, I'm not. I'm not putting an end date. I'm just saying how do they? Right. But let's start with the energy system. You're absolutely correct. The energy system

has been effectively destroyed. The Russians have essentially destroyed it. They haven't attacked the nuclear power stations because they are. are beyond, you know, they've given a promise to their own allies, that China, India, all the others, that they will not attack nuclear power stations because of the massive environmental risks in doing that. But they've destroyed pretty much everything else. They've destroyed all the thermal power stations.

They've destroyed all the hydroelectric stations. They've now shown that they have the ability to attack the transformers, the places where electric power is rooted and rerouted. The Russians are now in a position where they can switch off all electric power to Ukraine, prevent Ukrainian consumers receiving electric power essentially at will. We are now essentially at that point. And even if they don't do that, Ukraine isn't producing enough electricity to cover anything like its own needs. It's importing electricity from Europe, where previously it used to export electricity to Europe.

But were the Russians in a position to destroy the transformer stations? Even that is no longer a solution anymore. So we have a massive colossal crisis in the energy system building up across Ukraine. And of course, it's going to become far, far worse in the winter. And it means that the Ukrainian people are going to suffer terrible hardship through the winter because they will have inadequate electric power. And it's important to remember that in Ukraine, temperatures in winter, regularly fall well below zero.

And beyond all of that, it also means that the Ukrainian productive economy, its industries, will have to stop functioning to the extent that they now function at all. And it will affect the agricultural sector because it too requires electric power. And all of this, as Ukraine's financial position continues to determine. rate because the West can pump in money to staggering quantities. But it still remains the case that Ukraine has been obliged to pile up more and more debt in order to cover both its budget and its trade deficit. And there will come a point where all of this becomes unsustainable. And we will see the whole thing implode.

Now, that may happen in the next five months or the next six months. I don't know when exactly. But sooner or later, probably sooner, rather than later, almost certainly within the next, well, year at most, this all is going to break down and we're going to get that collapse that people have been talking about for so long. A military collapse on the front lines, a economic, and financial collapse and of course a political collapse. And this is where we turn to the question of Sirsky and his position and the position of Zelensky

and his position. We know that there are all of these reports that the Americans are now trying to think of someone else to lead Ukraine in place of Zelensky. And of course, when we do get to that point of collapse, when all of the illusions and narratives that have been concocted around Ukraine for so long, finally, conclusively break down, then that will be the point. We will be in the greatest point of danger, assuming the current administration is then still in office. We will get the biggest panic sweeping through Europe.

we will be getting a situation like we've never seen in Europe or in the West since the end of the Second World War, or at least not since the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962. Hopefully, perhaps just possibly, maybe a new administration in Washington will prevent us from getting to that point by taking the diplomatic and political measures that might avert that. but on present trajectory, that point is now inevitable. It is bound to come, and it is now approaching us very quickly on the time horizon. Yeah, I agree with that. Once we get to that point of collapse, there's going to be a mass freak out from the collective west,

and that's when it's going to be most dangerous. We've been saying this for a while now, but that seems to be where we're heading. Yeah. The scary part, just to wrap up the video, the scary part is I can't think of at this moment of the time, the leaders in the collective West that will be able to calm things down and to get us through this mess. I mean, you have adults on the other side, on the Russian side, you have adults in the room, but on the collective West, I just can't see who's going to think rationally. Well, look at who they're choosing to fill the important posts.

I mean, they've now picked Mark Rutter to replace Jens Stoltenberg. Mark Rutter is Jens Stoltenberg's identical twin. And they've replaced Yose-I, or they're going to replace Yosep Borel, an extreme Russifro incompetence, with Kuyzzi. callous and even more extreme, Russafo, and even more incompetent, and one who, about whom there are now, you know, allegations that, you know, about the financial dealings that her husband has been engaged in, which I'm not going to explore on this programme. But hardly the person who is, you know, the person you would look to to keep a calm head in a moment of crisis of the kind that we're, that

is on the way. So you're absolutely right. I didn't see anybody at the moment who remotely has a clue about what to do. Well, we'll cross that bridge, I guess, when we get to it. All right. The durand. Dot locals.com. We are on Rumble Odyssey, Bitchu, Telegram, Rockfin, and TwitterX and go to the Duran shop. Pick up some limited edition merch. Link is in the description box down below. Take care.