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All right, Alexander, let's talk about the election in the UK.
How are things going between Sunak and Kyr Stammer?
Farage.
Farage is now in the election as well, which is going to make things a bit more interesting.
And did we have a debate?
I think we had a debate between Stomar and Sunak as well.
How many debates are scheduled?
There's this the only debate?
No, there's going to be many more.
I have to say the idea of more debates between Starm and Soonak,
judging on the one that happened, is an almost unendurable thought.
I mean, it was awful.
I mean, they were both incredibly rude and insulting to each other.
There were lots of raised voices.
There were attempts on both sides to pretend that they had disagreed on fundamentals.
It was actually very difficult to see that they did.
disagree on anything of substance. So they said rude things about each other. Neither of them,
in my opinion, performed at all well. They both performed dreadfully. It just demonstrates
again that they're two parts of the same uni party. We did a brilliant programme about all of this
recently with Dr. Nima Parvini, in which you've explained how we're looking at two
elite parties, two parties that are part of the same elite structure, fighting things out.
But again, it demonstrated how empty of content of policy and of ideas, the struggle between
Labour and Conservative this time has become.
Dr. Parvini talked about the froth, the froth of politics, which is where the
divisions between the parties classically have existed.
There was very little of that.
There was very little even of that in this election.
I mean, you know, to get a sense of how absurd it was,
each of them was pretending to be more anti-immigration than the other.
I think looking at both of them and also looking at the record of each of them,
Sunak has been Prime Minister for a while now,
who's managed to do absolutely nothing to stem immigration.
Stama, who's a human rights lawyer by background,
somebody who, again, you don't really expect to make immigration his major concern.
I don't know anybody really believes that,
that either of them take this issue particularly seriously.
Anyway, there we go.
So that was the debate.
Now, what's happened?
And I come back to the analysis that we made when we previously discussed this election.
And we discussed how the decision to call the election when it was called was in order to prevent alternatives,
the parties to the right and to the left,
outside the central block of the two big parties,
not to give them time and space to organise how that was the reason that the election was called
when it was, rather than postponing the election till November,
as many people had intended.
Well, what has happened is that the election itself,
has been so boring, so bad, so completely empty of content,
that the person who has, to a great extent,
been the dominant figure in British popular politics
for well over a decade now, sniffed the opportunity
and said, given how bad this is,
this is the moment for me to be.
to burst in. And that, of course, is Nigel Farage. And he has burst in. And even the media is
in shock about this. And the election has been electrified. And though it's unlikely, I would have
thought that Farage in this election is going to take votes from Labour, though you mustn't
assume that. It's highly likely that he will take votes from the Conservatives. And I've just
seen one opinion poll, which puts Reform UK, now just two points behind the Conservatives at 17%,
which is a big surge since Farage joined the fray. The Conservatives are down to 19%, which is catastrophic.
I mean, it's more than a halving of their vote from the election that we saw.
Now, there's some ideas and thoughts that reform UK in the popular vote might even overtake the conservatives.
That I will have to wait and see.
I'm still uncertain about something like that happening.
But, of course, if it does, then the whole plan to hold the election now,
as long as those to prevent, you know, alternatives forming will have been thrown to the wind,
thrown to pieces. And we might actually have an election which would promise a fundamental change.
Because to be absolutely clear, even if Kier Stahmer wins two thirds of the seats in the House of Commons,
which is not impossible. But Reform UK enters the House of the House of Commons.
of Commons, perhaps doesn't win more seats than the Conservatives, which would be difficult for
it to do, given the electoral system, but perhaps wins more votes than the Conservatives.
That would be a revolutionary moment. It really would be 1906 again. You remember we talked about
the 1906 election, which the Liberals won by a landslide, but which really showed that their
position was starting to become to crumble under the new political force, the Labour Party of that
time was emerging. If we have a situation like that in this election, then it'll be another
revolutionary moment. Well, revolutionary moments would be too strongly. It will be another
pivotal moment and it will mean that British politics, or at least the shape of British politics,
will have fundamentally changed.
Does Farage enter the parliament?
Is that how it goes?
If he wins his seat, is he in the parliament?
Or is, okay, and is the goal or the possibility that reform actually becomes a viable,
a strong third party?
Is that something that could happen from these elections?
Instead of having this two-party system, could we actually be looking at?
looking at three strong parties in the UK after these elections?
What we've had, or is that too much to?
It's not too much to ask, though it must be said that at the moment it still seems a little far-fetched.
The British system has been a three-party system.
It's been conservative and labor.
They've each generally polled between 30 and 40% in various elections for some time now.
and we've also had the Liberals, the Liberal Democrats,
who've polled between 10 and 20% in various elections as well.
And that's been the basic balance.
They've all been, at least since the Blair era,
mainstream elite parties, very much part of the centre.
if Reform UK enters Parliament and establishes itself as the third party,
then it's going to be different.
I mean, it's going to be the entry of populist politics into the House of Commons.
And it's going to be a shock.
It's going to be a shock throughout the political system.
The Labour Party will be very alarmed because they know that a lot of what Reform UK says
is attractive to the kind of working class voter
that used to be the pillar of Labour's own electoral coalition.
So it will be a shock and it is not impossible.
Now, I think there's a number of things to say
in that live stream that we had with Dr. Parvini.
He spoke about his desire to see the Conservatives lose every seat.
and one would love to believe.
I mean, to be clear, they have governed disastrously.
Notice how he also said things that we've been saying on many programs,
how bad the situation in Britain has become,
how dysfunctional and broken the British state has become,
and how to a great extent now it's hardly governing
and not governing well.
So if the control,
Conservatives imploded to the extent that he says.
And we got no seat.
They were left with no seats at all.
One couldn't say that it was undeserved.
I would say that it was fully deserved.
I mean, they've governed terribly.
But is it realistically going to happen?
There are still an awful lot of people in Britain
who self-identify as conservatives.
and it seems to me that there's still a significant block of people,
especially people over 65,
who are going to loyally vote for the Conservative Party,
which, in fairness, has looked after their interests reasonably well.
It's made sure that, you know, more affluent pensioners are reasonably well protected.
And that is a significant voting bloc in British politics.
And I would have thought that it is enough by itself to enable the Conservatives to win a significant number of seats.
But it's not impossible that in other places, saying places on the red wall in some of the suburbs, you know, the North London suburbs, reform UK could break through.
when you mean
breakthrough
I mean that
I mean that
win seats
I mean to go back to Farage
if he wins the seat
which he's standing for
he will be elected
to Parliament
he will become the next
He's never been in Parliament
has he
He's never been in Parliament
which would be in itself
by the way
a shocking moment
and some would say
a revolutionary one
you'd have
Galloway and Farage
wouldn't you
Well he would indeed
in fact, you would have exactly the outcome that Dr. Parvini was talking about.
You would have Farage and Galloway, perhaps, sitting side by side.
By the way, they work together. They know each other.
One is on the left.
The other is on the right.
It's not, but, you know, they have many things in common.
Both are anti-EU, for instance.
Is Galloway, would you define?
define him as populist left or?
Yeah, he's populist.
Farage's populist right, you would say, right?
Yes, oh, absolutely.
That'd be a definition for a reform UK?
Yes, I think so.
The reform UK would be defined as a populist right.
Yes.
And Galloway, I would define personally, the way I would define him is as old Labour left.
The Labour party's working class left was very hostile to the EU, as I well.
remember, or the European community, or the European economic community, as it was called.
It believed in a public ownership.
It believed in a strong state, intervening in the economy.
It believed in all kinds of things, things which remain popular, by the way, with many people in prison.
So, you know, it might potentially, a Galloway-type party, you could see that it might actually break through.
The Halloway's problem, in my opinion, has always been that he is not been as successful in organizing a political movement beyond himself, whereas Farage has been.
So Farage is very good at finding people, lots of people who will work for him and will campaign for him in various places.
he's created parties like UKIP and the Brexit party,
which have been successful.
And of course, he's now leading Reform UK
and which are greater than himself.
Up to now, Galloway has never really succeeded in doing that.
Yeah, but Farage is the face, though, now of Reform UK.
Oh, absolutely.
He's our successful parties in their own right,
but Farage is now, he's now the face of it.
Well, I think he will not,
he becomes face. I think it's only a matter of time
because he becomes his formal
leader. I have to say that.
I mean, I, you know, I can't imagine
that, I mean, he's
so much the big
the big beast in that
particular wood that I can't
imagine that he won't
be its leader before long.
Yeah, both men
are big, big personalities
and big forces.
Yes.
Nature, yeah.
that's going to terrify
that's going to terrify guys like
Sunak and Starmer
Well I think
I think Sunak
Not only knows that he's going to lose
But I think he's planning to
Leave the UK completely
And go to the US
I mean that's the rumor anyway
So I don't think he's going to be here
For very much long
What
Starmer's going to do
Is another question
I'm going to say this.
I don't think a Starma government is going to be very effective or very successful.
And I repeat what I said in our previous program, what you're going to see,
and especially if there is this populist revolt,
and that brings Reform UK into the House of Commons,
you're going to see a big authoritarian turn as well.
We've seen this already, and it's going to intensify.
And nobody should be under any illusions about that at all.
Yeah, I wonder if Obama's trip to see Sunak has something to do with Sunac going to the U.S.
Maybe doing something with the Obama Foundation or Obama or something, I don't know.
Very likely.
I didn't think of that, but I'm sure you're right.
Anyway, all right.
We'll end it there.
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