The Duran Podcast - Nuland, 'frank and difficult' meeting in Niger

Episode Date: August 9, 2023

Nuland, 'frank and difficult' meeting in Niger

All right, Alexander, let's do an update on the situation in Niger. And the latest news is that deputy secretary of state, the number two person in the State Department now, Victoria Newland, made a trip to Niger. It doesn't sound like it was a very successful trip, to be honest. Whenever they use the words, frank and difficult in their state, statements after a meeting Victoria Newland had with the leadership team in Niger. She used the terms frank and difficult. Whenever they say those words, it means that things went really, really bad.

But what is your take on Victoria Newland's trip to Niger? She wasn't bringing cookies this time around. During this coup, she was not bringing cookies, Alexander. Absolutely. No, I think what happened, and perhaps the key word is frank, But I think what's happened is that she came to deliver an ultimatum. I think she told the Niger people to stand down, bring back the civilian president. If they don't, there will be trouble.

And I know there are some people who think that the prospect of foreign intervention in Niger has subsided. I disagree. I think that the moves in Nigeria, Nigeria people are clearly not particularly keen. but I think the president most definitely does want to intervene in Niger. I think the military chief in Nigeria also wants to intervene in Niger. And I think Senegal and other ECOWAS countries have been put up to do it as well. Nigeria is just too important to be left to go rogue, as Victoria Newland would say. I'm not suggesting it really is going rogue, but that's how she would define it.

So I think she's gone to Niger, delivered an ultimatum, The Niger military refused to back down. They said that they're not prepared to bring the president back. They're not prepared to submit to this ultimatum that she had in her pocket. And I think the stage is now set for the next part of the act, the play, which I suspect will be some intervention by the ECOWAS states, or at least some of the Aka-West states over the next few days or perhaps weeks. What kind of intervention from the West do you expect?

Right. I think that the Western powers will probably want to avoid becoming directly involved in military terms. Now, the French, how threatened air strikes? I mean, that's, again, you know, you have to unscramble the words, but clear. that's what Macron was talking about at one point. The US and France, of course, still do have troops in Niger. The military in Niger want them to leave, but I've seen no sign that they're doing so. But I don't think that the Western powers will themselves want to become involved,

overthrowing by military means an African government, because that would smack of neocolonialism, neo-imperialism or that kind of thing. But they do have countries in ECOWAS, especially Nigeria and Senegal, that look like their leaders want to go into Nigeria and to restore the government, the civilian government there. And I think they'll be both backing those moves

and in private urging them. I think that's probably what they want to do. They want to see the Nigerians and the Senegalese go into to Niger. Now, Nigeria is a giant of a country by West African standards. And of course, it has a large military. Senegal has apparently or supposedly one of the best militaries in Africa. The Niger military is quite small. It's Western trained, by the way, but it's quite small. Niger doesn't have much of an air force. So in theory and logically, it should be a fairly straightforward intervention if there is a military intervention. But of course we can't be certain

because we don't know how the population in Niger would react. Nigeria is a complicated country as most African states in West Africa are. There are other countries nearby that disapprove of a military intervention in Niger. Mali and Burkina Faso have made it absolutely clear that they're opposed to an intervention that they back the military in Niger. And Algeria has stopped short of saying that it would help Niger directly in the event of an intervention. But it's made it very clear that he doesn't support one. In fact, that he opposes one.

And of course, Algeria has a border with Niger. And if you pass Nigerian comments carefully. what it seems to me that the Algerians are saying is, you know, with our border, we have means of making life difficult for you if you do enter Niger and overthrow the military there and intervene in that country. And that could set the scene for some kind of insurgency perhaps. But anyways, it's a very high risk situation. It could very easily lead to a new conflict in West Africa. it seems to me. But I think

that from the perspective of people like Newland, and indeed Macron, Niger is just too important. It's too important in terms of its uranium and its other minerals, its strategic location, the fact that the US

has a major drone base there, it's just too important to lose. I mean, that's how they perceive these things. And I think that they're prepared to take those risks. And I think that there are leaders in Senegal and Nigeria who are prepared to play along with them. Yeah, the military government, the coup government, they have, it seems they have started to create a government, a government of technocrats and bureaucrats. They actually appointed, from

when I understand, the former finance minister as prime minister. So it seems like this coup government, is starting to move forward with the creation of their own government to begin to administer the country's needs. This conflict, this brewing conflict in Niger, it seems like it's the exact type of conflict that the neocons and the U.S. military prefers. Yeah. You know, you understand what I mean? that after the catastrophe and the debacle that that they're enduring in Ukraine, especially NATO, I think something like Niger is a type of conflict that they don't mind getting involved in.

I think that's exactly right, because I mean, it's a big country, but it's not with 25 million people, apparently. But the point is it doesn't have a strong military, it doesn't have strong institutions. It's the sort of place where they probably calculate, they might be wrong in these calculations, but they probably calculate that they can control anything that happens there and that they can always buy people. I mean, corruption in West Africa has historically been a problem, that they can buy the supportive people, they can do various things.

So it is the kind of intervention which falls within their comfort zone. And, well, perhaps they thought the same. about Afghanistan, you know, in the past. But of course, Afghanistan, there has been a long history of resistance to outsiders, and the terrain is difficult. I think the same doesn't apply to Nigerian, anything like the same degree. So I think they're saying to themselves, well, look, we've got strong regional allies, at least over this issue.

I do think, by the way, Nigeria and Senegal should be seen as US satellites, or vassals. They have their own reasons for wanting to intervene in Niger. But on this, they're aligned with the US. So they have strong regional allies with powerful militaries. Niger doesn't. Niger is historically been relatively easy to control. So they're probably saying to themselves, there's not really very much risk if we intervene in this country. Algeria might be a problem, but we can deal with that too. So I think you absolutely have absolutely. right. I think it's well within their comfort zone. And that's another reason why I think they're going to do it. Yeah. And Biden, Macron, they can take a victory lap if they manage to successfully restore the

former government. And they could also frame it from the standpoint of the collective West removing Russian influence from West Africa because even Newland when she was in Niger, she was talking up this, I think it's this type of phantom presence of Wagner there, but she was warning the government in Niger not to align itself with Wagner. And I think this is a non-issue. I mean, I haven't seen any concrete evidence that Wagner has a presence in Niger. It's a complete phantom. It simply isn't true. I mean, there's been an awful lot of stories. Remember, a couple of days ago, there was a film of Russian illusion 76 aircraft flying into the airport in Niger, and everybody rushed and said, you know, that's Wagner flying in to defend the military leaders there. And of course, this was apparently a film made in 2006. There's no bearing at all on this situation. Wagner has no presence in Niger. There is no evidence that there's any people from Wagner in Niger at all.

And the Russians are not involved in this in any way. In fact, they're embarrassed by it. They've actually condemned the coup. They also say they want to see the civilian president restored to power. They have no strategic interest in Niger whatsoever. Obviously, if the government in Niger, the military government were able to retain control and consolidate itself and in the future reach out to Russia. Well, at that point, as happened in Mali and Burkina Faso, the Russians probably

would say yes, but that isn't the situation at the moment. They've got good relations with some of the African countries that are strongly opposed to the coup, like Senegal, for example. So they're not going to, they're not going to involve themselves in it. I mean, you know, they're not going to cheer US intervention or the intervention in Niger. What they're going to say is this is none of our business and we're staying out. So this thing

that's been conjured up by various people at various levels, you know, both those who want to see the Russians there because they see Niger as an, you know, important place to leverage against the West. And those who as you said, invoke the phantom of Russian intervention in Niger in order to justify an intervention. They're talking about something that doesn't exist.

Yeah, I agree with you on that. All right. Anything else that you want to add to this story before we wrap it up? I think if the, I just want to say this, I think if ECOWAS, if these ECOWAS states, Senegal, Nigeria, the others do intervene in Niger. And I think if the Western power is supported, and I think all the likelihood is that they will, I think they're making a big mistake. I mean, you know, putting aside whatever you may think about the fact that this government has come to power, this new government is coming to power through a coup, it is clear that there is a lot of dissatisfaction, disaffection in Niger with its current alignment with France. and I think that trying to restore by force

something that is clearly failing in Niger itself is a recipe for future trouble and instability in West Africa. I can very easily see how this intervention could spiral out of control, could create all the kind of problems that we've discussed, migration flows to Europe, all of those things, and heaven help us it might even open the way for jihad, groups to establish themselves in this area. So I think the best policy would be to leave Niger alone

to sort out its own problems. But of course that is never advice that people like Victoria Newland or indeed Macron are ever going to follow. No, they can't because like you said, the resources, the money is just too much. The pillaging and the plundering is too robust in Niger, unfortunately. Okay, we will leave it there. The durand.com. We are on Rumble, odyssey, but shoot, telegram, and rock fin, and go to the Duran shop. 10% off. Use the code. Good day. Take care.