The Duran Podcast - One step closer to Minsk 3 or Istanbul Plus (Live)

Episode Date: August 19, 2025

One step closer to Minsk 3 or Istanbul Plus (Live)

All right, we are live with Alexander McCurris in London. How are you doing, Alexander? I'm doing very well, extraordinary days and much to discuss today, but I'm very happy to be here. All right. Alexander, your thoughts on yesterday's meeting at the White House with Zelensky and then the Europeans. And after you give your thoughts, we'll jump into questions. Well, I think the first thing to say is that it could have conversed in the sense that the Europeans and Zelensky clearly went to Washington trying to get Trump to pull back from what he'd

agreed with Putin in Alaska. Now, I've come to my own view, which is a very simple one, which is that the entirety of the agreement that was reached between Putin and Trump in Alaska is that there should be movements towards a full peace agreement and that there should not be a ceasefire before that. I think that all these reports that we've been hearing about the Ukrainians withdrawing from Dombas and a ceasefire and all of those kinds of things. I think these are ideas that are coming from the Americans and which have been addressed to the Russians. and which have been bouncing around. The same about security guarantees, by the way.

And I think the Russians have been listening to them and they've not been rejecting them outright. But I don't think they originate with the Russians at all. And if you go to the TAS news agency, which is, of course, Russia's official news agency, they've clearly been given instructions by the Kremlin to report on all of these things in exactly that way.

So the idea of Ukrainian withdrawal from the Donbass is incidentally reported in task as an American proposal. And the security guarantee issue, I think is one that the Americans floated unexpectedly to the Russians in Alaska. And I think there's been a regular misunderstanding about it. So Trump did not retreat

from the basic agreement he reached with Putin in Alaska, which is that the way to solve this problem is through a negotiated solution of the entire conflict, not, in other words, to have a ceasefire, which the Russians fear absolutely correctly would end up in a frozen conflict, another frozen conflict, and which would in effect be Minsk 3. And the other thing was that the Europeans clearly came to Alaska, to, sorry, to Washington yesterday with hopes or plans of trying to get Trump to go back to the sanctions issue. And you see, you saw interviews given by, an interview given by Lindsay Graham, in which he was basically talking about the same thing. And he was also talking about

designating Russia a terror state, which is something we need to talk about, I think, a little more detail, because I think this is definitely where things are going. Anyway, so the Europeans came to Washington with that purpose as well, to get Trump, in other words, to start pulling away from the agreements, the understanding he reached with Putin in Alaska, to get him talking about security guarantees, to make commitments that the United States would provide Ukraine with security guarantees, not the Istanbul-type security guarantees, but the Russians proposed to Ukraine in April 2020,

but NATO-style security guarantees. And to get the Americans talking again about, see about in effect a ceasefire, freezing the conflict again, and about sanctions. Well, Trump didn't simply and straightforwardly say no. And I think this is a problem because he went along. He spoke to the Ukrainians. He spoke to the Europeans. He did so in a way that was clearly intended to give the impression that he was still

friendly to them, that he wanted to work with them, that he wanted to do all of these things. And I'm afraid I think that isn't going to help the process going forward at all. I think it's going to simply create more issues and more time and is going to model things going forward. And of course, he also spoke again about a trilateral meeting between himself and Putin and Zelensky. And he spoke about having a meeting between Zelensky and Putin first, and then speaking himself with Putin afterwards. But then what happened over the course of this meeting

is that he interrupted the meetings with the Europeans, and he interrupted the meeting with Zelensky, and he rushed off and he telephoned Putin. and it's fairly clear what he was trying to do. He was trying to bounce Putin into agreeing to a trilateral summit meeting then and there. And he was hoping to come back and he was going to announce the fact to the assembled Europeans and to the Ukrainians that, you know, Putin has agreed. There'll be a trilateral summit meeting on the 22nd of August, on Friday, in fact,

or within the next few weeks. And it didn't, I think, go. The telephone call with Putin didn't go as Trump expected. So we've had Uschikov's account of that telephone call and Uschikov said that the two leaders discussed, well, first of all, committed to supporting the existing process of negotiations between the Russians and the Ukrainians, the process that's taking place, been taking place in Istanbul, the negotiating teams led by Medinsky from Russia and Umerov from Ukraine. They discussed upgrading the delegations with more senior officials, but the Russians didn't commit to a trilateral summit meeting. between Putin, Trump and Zelensky, not in any format or in any form, at least not for the moment.

They haven't rejected it. And I think it's important to say that Putin has never said that in principle he would refuse to meet Zelensky. But they've not agreed for the moment to a trilateral summit meeting. And then there was something else that happened, which is quite interesting, which is that after the telephone conversation between Trump and Putin, perhaps as a result of some of the things that may have been said over the telephone conversation. There may be other explanations for it. After the meeting with the Europeans and the Ukrainians, Trump published a truth social post

in which he appeared to be retreating from the rhetoric that we've been hearing from the Americans over the last couple of days about security guarantees. So the Americans have been talking about the United States providing security guarantees. Trump has spoken grandly about how the US military would ensure Ukraine's security and all of that. Someone appears to have taken Trump aside. It might have been Putin over the course of that call. It might have been other people in the United States. in the administration and said to Trump, look, are you really sure that you really want to go here?

Do you really understand quite what this means? And in the truth social post that he published, he said that it would be the Europeans who would give the security guarantees. And these would be coordinated by the United States. But he was careful to say in the truth social post, or rather he was careful not to say in the truth social post. or rather he was careful not to say in the true social post that the United States would be giving Ukraine security guarantees. So you can see that this is a dynamic process and that Trump himself is shifting position.

He's still trying to get this trilateral meeting with Putin and Zelensky and he's pushing the Russians very hard for it. I'm not sure what he thinks it will achieve, by the way. No, about this price. Other than that. It's optics. It's optics. Exactly.

I mean, it's obvious. You know, he wants to be there. He wants to be in the middle. He wants Zelensky on one side. He wants Putin on the other. He wants all of that. The Russians are clearly very unenthusiastic about this idea altogether. And you can almost hear the conversation.

I mean, Putin's saying to Trump, look, what about Istanbul? We already have negotiations. ongoing with the Ukrainians. Let's, I mean, isn't that the format we should be sticking with at the moment? After all, you've told Europeans yourself that all of these issues, the territorial issues and all of those things should be discussed directly between us and the Ukrainians in Istanbul. So, you know, why are you intruding yourself into this process?

Why are you trying to get me to meet Zelensky at the moment, when we haven't even really achieved anything so far in Istanbul? So you can almost hear this conversation take place. Trump still wants that trilateral meeting. The Russians clearly not so sure and probably for the moment pushing back, at least to a certain extent. And the security guarantee discussion veering almost out of control, nobody considering that, as I said, ultimately, the Russians have a veto over the whole discussion. Yesterday, they made it crystal clear that the deployment of NATO forces in Ukraine is an absolute

no from a Russian point of view. That is completely unacceptable. The foreign ministry issued a statement to that effect. And the Russians clearly not interested in the kind of Article 5 security. guarantees that some people in Europe are pushing and which Ukraine itself is pushing. And Trump himself sometimes appearing to veer in that direction and then pulling back. So in summary, we are still got, if you like, the gains of Alaska. No ceasefire.

I mean, there's lots of pressure on Trump for a ceasefire. Macron was still talking about a ceasefire. Maths was still talking about a ceasefire. I'm sure in private Zelensky was talking about a ceasefire. So no ceasefire. I mean, this is not even a topic for discussion, at least for the moment. I mean, it could very well become again. No sanctions, no tariffs, nothing like that threatened yesterday.

Again, this could come back fairly soon. But for the moment, anyway, Trump stopped at that. But again, he gave far too much rope. to Zelensky and to the Europeans. And they're going to tug on that rope in order to try to pull him back. They're going to say that he made commitments to them, which isn't really quite make,

but they're going to say that he made commitments to them. They're going to try and work on him to say it's the Russians who are being obstructive again. And they're going to try to pull him back. So we are still, unfortunately, in a situation where nothing is completely clear. And we are not really, you know, in a position to say that this is heading towards a proper negotiation process. However, we are closer to a proper negotiating process.

There's been no real negotiations up to now. The Russians and the Ukrainians have exchanged memoranda, but the Ukrainians have never provided any real counter proposals to the Russian proposals. I mean, they've never really explained how they see the war is ending other than through a capitulation by Russia, which simply isn't going to happen. Now, if we continue, if we stick with what was agreed in Alaska, if there is no ceasefire, if there are no sanctions or attempts at sanctions, if the process continues as we are looking at the moment,

and we have genuine negotiations going forward, then over time, the balance will shift further and further towards the Russians, because the Russians are making progress on the Ukrainian battlefields. They're advancing. And the Americans will not want Ukraine to collapse. And at some point, over the course of the negotiations, they will do what they did in Vietnam and in Afghanistan. they will start putting more and more pressure on their proxy to make the big substantive

concessions to bring the war to an end. They didn't do that yesterday. It was a mischance to do it. Perhaps at some point they will, we shall see. That's my overall take of the situation yesterday. You're right. Trump is not being firm with the Europeans or with Ukraine. No.

He's just, he's not telling them no. No. That's that's the problem here. Yes. And the media is already reporting that the Europeans, they've brought Trump back on side with security guarantees. That's what they're reporting. Even though his true social post is crystal clear. He says the United States will coordinate security guarantees, but it will be the Europeans

that will be providing the security guarantees of which Russia has said no. Russia has said no to European and NATO security guarantees or NATO forces. Ukraine about a thousand times. Yes. They've said no. Yes. But here we are again. And they reiterated it yesterday.

By the way, I think that's an important thing to set, to understand. So, and they have a veto over. Before the meeting, they said it. Exactly. Before the meeting started. Before the meeting started, they said it. And to repeat again, they had a veto over it. Because the reason that Ukraine is not getting security guarantees from any NATO state,

the kind of Article 5. security guarantees that the Ukrainians are talking about and that the Europeans are now talking about is because the reality is that no between Europe or indeed the United States actually wants to fight Russia. So so long as the war continues, there are not going to be any security guarantees which incentivizes the Russians to continue the war in order to force the Europeans and the Americans to give up on this idea. Now, that's probably the real place. of this to keep the war going. We've discussed this many times. The Europeans really don't want the war to end. But anyway, that is the underlying, underlying story here. The point is, as you rightly said, that Trump, who very unwisely, over the last couple of days, since he spoke to the Europeans on Wednesday, has played around with this whole topic in his true social post, finally. pulled back. And again, this isn't been properly reported or indeed widely reported at all.

The Financial Times noticed that there was this retreat. But most of the rest of the media in Europe and they will not report it. They will not report it. The Europeans will grab on to. They will seize. They will seize onto it exactly. They will try to make the most of it that they can. And anyway, we will see where this goes. Yeah. No, go ahead. No, no. I mean, well, I mean, just to say, But, you know, we are perhaps closer, not to the end of the war. I think that's still a long way to go. Even Trump, by the way, and he's through social posts, through this word early, which appeared to acknowledge that there's still a big process to continue,

which is probably something else that Putin said to him over the course of their telephone conversation. But we are perhaps closer towards a genuine negotiation, which will finally take us to the core issue. and the root causes, as Putin has been saying, which will eventually lead us to something which will ultimately look very like and might even be identical to Istanbul Plus. Yeah. Yeah, Trump had the opportunity to be very strong and very firm with the Europeans,

with Zelenskyy yesterday. And he wasn't. No. I'm not saying that he was, that he caved into them either. No, no. He kind of took a middle road. So he said, you know, no ceasefire. We can negotiate without having a ceasefire.

I've done it before. But then when Mertz, when the Europeans came in and then they sat at the table, Mertz once again talked about a ceasefire. At that point in time, Trump should have stopped Mertz. And he should have said, dude, what did I say an hour ago? No ceasefire. So shut up with the ceasefire, Chancellor Mertz. That's exactly what he should have told him.

But he didn't. He let Mertz go on. with the whole election thing with with Zelensky he choked around about it yes you know why you're not having elections and this and that and if i had elections in the united states if we had a war and and i called off elections the media would flip out so that's what he was he we went into that that that discussion with his with Zelensky where he just should have told Zelensky you're going to have elections when i tell you to period of the story yes yeah stop this martial law BS.

That's what he should have told them. Stop with this excuse. We know it's an excuse. When we're ready to call elections, you're going to call elections. That's what he should have told, Zelensky. But he didn't. He doesn't have this strength in him to take on the Europeans. And even Zelenskyy.

For some reason, he always pulls back. He does because he doesn't have the, I think, again, going back to what Byron York was saying. from other people too now and Larry Johnson has mentioned it too that Trump is uncomfortable in diplomatic settings he he always makes the mistake of trying to win over his the other person to his point of view and sometimes you just can't do that with Zelensky and the Europeans you never ever will be nice to these people and appearing to you know trying to meet them half halfway doesn't work because they will take whatever you give them and demand more,

which is exactly what Zelensky did. Notice, by the way, that he came along and demanded another was at $100 billion. A bride. That was a bribe. That was a bribe. That was basically Zelensky and the Europeans saying, look, if you continue the war, we'll pay you $100 billion. I know.

They're saying we're going to buy weapons. What weapons are you going to buy? I know, exactly. We're going to buy patriots, he said. The U.S. doesn't have patriots. The seven-year waiting list. I know. I know.

That was a flat-out bride. Absolutely. We will pay you $100 billion if you keep the war going. Exactly. Trump should call this stuff out, but he doesn't. Absolutely. And the whole security thing was just completely just bumbled and messed up. I completely agree with that.

Security guarantees. And he said maybe U.S. troops. And then he pulled back. The whole thing was just a complete mess. And he should have said, where he should have said, there will be no U.S. troops in Ukraine, period, full stop. Never, ever, ever will we have American troops in Ukraine? That's what he should have said. And he should have said the United States will not provide security guarantees as the United States because we don't have any treaty or alliance with Ukraine, which compels us to provide security for you.

If the Europeans, he should have said this to all the Europeans, if you guys, want to provide security to Ukraine, go ahead. Not my problem. It's not my issue. That's what he should have said. That is exactly what he should have done. That's exactly what he should have done. We didn't.

He didn't. All right. Anything else you want to discuss before we go to questions? And you noticed that the territorial issue was discussed at the end of the day. I'm going to make a guess here that the reason he didn't bring up the whole Dombas, proposal, Ukraine retreating from the Donvass and all of that was because he knows perfectly well that this is an American proposal and that the Russians have said, well, look at it, but they haven't actually agreed to it. So over the course of the meeting yesterday, it was quietly dropped.

Yeah, Gilleske brought a map with him and, I mean, you brought a map. Yeah. I mean, okay. You know, and Gillesyneski said he wanted to show the reality of the battlefield situation to Trump. what's what's the reality that you're losing that you've lost is that the reality but it is the way yeah that is the reality but of course uh macron is saying it's all untrue ukraine is still doing well zelensky says it's all a bluff i mean again i trump should have called them on this he said look you know you're telling me that ukraine is not losing what what planet are you what i mean that's exactly what he should have said i mean that's the reality of it i mean he should to tell them, please don't waste my time by telling me this nonsense.

I know what's going on. I know who's fighting in Pagrosk to where the Russians are. I'm the president of the United States. I know a lot more about this war, the state of this war than I do, than you do, if you're talking about the Europeans. You are all getting your intelligence about the war from me. I can just pull the switch, and you're not going to get any intelligence about it at all. Yeah.

It was a mistake to have the Europeans show up. Yeah, absolutely. That was a huge mistake. You should have said why are you bringing these guys along? I don't need my vassals here as I speak to you. So I don't need them here. That's what he should have said. And what do you think about calling Putin in the middle of the meeting?

I think that was also not a good move. But after the meeting, when everything is wrapped up, you can call the Russian president, if that's what you've agreed on. And you could discuss what was said. But during the meeting and cutting, cutting off the meeting halfway or whatever they said. And then he calls Putin. I mean, that's just, I don't know, it just seems.

It was, it was like an ambush in a way. Yes, it was formative. Yeah. But, I mean, clearly what he was trying to do was bounce Putin into agreeing to a trilateral summit. I mean, that was really what that was all about, it seems to me. And Putin didn't go along with it. The Russians, by the way,

Again, they are sticking to the Istanbul format. They're saying, look, we've already got direct negotiations. We've now got this idea of a ceasefire out of the way. Let's now get those negotiations going, and let's get the Ukrainians to start negotiating with us in earnest. That's basically what Ushik has said. By the way, Medvedev has basically said the same thing in a post he's published on X. Well, we'll see what the Ukrainians do. I mean, if Trump had called me, if I was the Russian president and Trump called me,

I'd be like, bro, what are you calling me for? Aren't you in the middle of a meeting? That's what I would tell. It might say, finish up your meeting and then call me afterwards and tell me what happened. How do we know that wasn't what we can actually say? That's what I would have said. Aren't you in the middle of a big meeting right now? Yeah, exactly.

So just to wrap it up, Alexander, it's my view that I know, what Uschikov said and Anushikov did not signal that the Kremlin has agreed to a meeting between Putin and Zelensky. I mean, it was very clear in Uschikov's statement. Yes. Uschikov said that they agreed to level up is basically the words that he used as far as negotiations are concerned. But he did not specifically say that the Russians agreed to a meeting with.

Ukraine, Putin agreed to a meeting with Zelensky. I did not say that. Rubio said they did on Fox News. Trump is hinting and saying that they did. The media is saying that Putin agreed to meet with Zelensky. Zelensky is hinting at the fact that he's agreed to meet with him. Zelensky said it was the Russians who actually. Yeah, but Uschikov is very clear in his statement.

They did not agree with it. They didn't say no, but they didn't say yes. And if Putin were to agree, then this would be a concession from Russia. Is it a minor concession? No. Is it a critical, significant concession? Could be debated. But it would demolish the Russian position of Zelensky being illegitimate in accordance with the Constitution of Ukraine

because they would then be acknowledging Putin sitting down with Zelensky. at such a high level meeting without it being a capitulation surrender signing event, with it being a negotiation process, that would signal that the Russians do view Zelensky as the legal legitimate leader of Ukraine. And that would just blow up their argument, which they've been going on about for the past year and a half, which is that Zelensky is not the legitimate leader of Ukraine in accordance with the Ukrainian constitution, of which our lawyers have gone through it. So, I mean, and even Trump wasn't sure about what was going to happen because he's saying we're going to have, first it'll be Putin and Zelensky, and then I may be there, and then we may have a trilateral meeting, but first it'll be those two at one location, and then we'll meet at a different location.

I mean, the whole thing was a bit muddled as well. Anyway, your thoughts about. Well, first of all, I've got what Ushik has said in front of me. In this, the words are these, at least I'm thinking this from the Kremlin's read out, in this connect. amongst other things, they discussed the prospect of exploring opportunities for drawing higher-ranking officials from both Ukraine and Russia into these direct talks. The direct talks are the talks in Istanbul, and the previous paragraph says that Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump reaffirmed their commitment to continuing direct talks between Russian and

Ukrainian delegations. So this clearly refers to the Istanbul process. The Russians are still focusing on the Istanbul process. So they're saying, look, we're, we're open to a discussion about upgrading the ranking of the delegations involving more senior officials. Notice, plural, but there is no comment there about a trilateral summit meeting between Putin and Zelensky. I mean, the way that this is framed is that if Zelensky and Putin were going to meet at all, it would be as heads of these delegations in Istanbul. In other words, Zelensky would be there as chief negotiator on behalf of Ukraine. And Putin would be there as chief negotiator on behalf of Russia.

And the Russians have said that Zelensky, they accept him as the de facto authority in Ukraine at the moment. In other words, they accept that he has negotiating powers, but they say that he's not in a position to sign the final document. Very legalistic and very Russian. Now, I mean, they haven't committed themselves. But that's an important distinction. I mean, that's important. Exactly.

As chief negotiators. As chief negotiators, heading the respective delegations in Istanbul. You have to pass Russian words, Russian readouts, very, very carefully. I mean, I've spoken about Putin being a lawyer, which he is. And he's mentioned this fact recently, by the way, on several occasions that he's got legal training and that he uses a lawyer's approach to things. He's acknowledged that this is partly his personality. But as various people, Ray McGovern has recently reminded us, the Russians anyway have a long, long history of using being very, very careful in their use of words and Ushikov and Putin.

Because Putin clearly has had an input into this announcement that Ushikov has made. By the way, that announcement took some time to come up. So there was the telephone call between Putin and Trump and then clearly Putin. Uschikov was clearly obviously in on the call. than Putin and Uschikas and other Russian officials will have worked through that statement, word by word, and sentence by sentence, to make sure that the exact meaning of it was clear,

and it is the one that I said. So the way the Russians see it is not a summit meeting of the kind that Trump imagines, but a meeting of delegations in which Putin will be the chief negotiation. possibly, and Zelensky will be the chief negotiator, possibly. And of course, that meeting will happen in Istanbul. So there we go. Bear in mind. Trump doesn't want that though. No, Trump doesn't want it in that way at all. I don't know that he even understands this. Bear in mind that as far as

the Russians are concerned, the negotiations in Istanbul are the resumed negotiations. that were interrupted in April 22. The Ukrainians have never accepted that, but that is the Russian position. That's why Medinsky heads the Russian delegation because he was there in Istanbul in 2022 negotiating with the Ukrainians then. So as far as the Russians are concerned,

this is a continuous process. Istanbul 2022 is the basis of the discussions. The Russians have added memorandum. Miranda amplifying Istanbul to take into account the change situation since then. And they're telling the Ukrainians, look, this is what you agreed to back in 2022. And this is the basis of our discussion here. Of course, the Ukrainians won't accept that at all. But Putin and Zelensky meeting as heads of delegations in Istanbul in that kind of way,

would for the Russians be a continuation of those talks? that began back in April 2022. I hope I've explained the Russian position clearly here. You need, as I said, to understand what the Russians are saying. And of course, nobody in the West ever does, just to say. Yeah, I wonder what contribution would Putin make as a chief negotiate. I mean, Zelensky would make no contribution.

But what would Putin actually be doing there in a negotiating capacity? I mean, you know, other people are doing the work of the negotiations. And his role is to show up when everything's ready to be signed, but to actually sit there and go through the details. I mean, you did see that in Minsk, in Minsk, in Minsk, in Minsk, and Mintz two to a certain degree. But even then, a lot of the groundwork was already, what was already done before all of the leaders gathered together.

Yes, yes. Yes. Well, in fact, we can actually talk a little bit about what happened in Minsk in February 2015, because put aside what happened after. But what happened on the day and night itself is that Putin came with the Russian delegation. The Russians were involved in the discussions in Minsk. Set out his demands, the Ukrainians were losing the war at that time. discussed in many places, the Ukrainian army was surrounded in DeBalseville and was on the verge of

collapse. And he left it to the Europeans, to Merkel and Hollande, to basically bully the Ukrainians into accepting the Russian terms, which is what happened, what the Minsk agreement ultimately was. So Putin basically, I mean, Minsk reflects Russia. thinking of that time. And as I said, because the Ukrainians were in a state of crisis, he got the Europeans to force Zelensky, I was right, to Poroshenko to sign off on it. Now, I think what the Russians might be thinking is something fairly similar,

might happen with Zelensky this time, in the sense that you get a massive military crisis in Donbass, and we're probably not very far from that position. Zelensky and Putin and their various delegations meet in Istanbul. Trump is also there. Putin sets out his terms and relies on the Americans to force Zelensky to accept them. That might be at the back of the Russians' mind. And that's when Putin and Zelensky might eventually meet.

So then you get a signed agreement. Everybody signs. it goes away and is presumably then taken to the UN Security Council, exactly as Minsk was, and well, we'll see what happens at that point. Yeah, I wonder if the Trump administration understands this, or if they even understand the history and the background of Minsk, how it all went down. So you can see Putin is showing up there, Putin is showing up there, saying, here's the situation, here are our terms. Once again, here are our final terms.

Trump, the United States, balls in your court, as they like to say. Exactly, exactly. One person in the United States, I think, does have the grasp of the detail to see this. And that might be Vance. I get the sense that Vance is a details person. I don't think any of the others do. I don't think certainly Trump doesn't. I doubt that Whitgolf, well, Wittgolf obviously doesn't.

And I very, very much doubt that Rubeo does. Yeah. Okay. Should we get to the question? Let's do that. Let's do that. Okay, let's start off with Nikos, two-part question. Trump once again gave in to Zelensky and the freaking Europeans because he doesn't want the media and foreign media

to blame him for Ukraine's loss. Now he says he has organized a meeting with Zelensky and Putin in order to shove EU troops in Ukraine. This is Mitch three and everyone knows it. If Putin agrees with this, he will get a coup. Well, I think we've been to spend that opposite. fully already. I mean, it's not completely correct. I mean, I think there's a lot of truth in what you're saying about Trump. I mean, he was far too weak and he went along with far too much of what

the Europeans were saying and what Zelensky was saying. But in the end, he didn't make fully the kind of commitments that I think you say. I mean, he hasn't, he says he's going to organize a meeting, but he can only organize a meeting if the Russians are. agree and they haven't done so yet. Yeah. And the Russians might agree, but I think you nailed it. They'll agree in the capacity of the leaders being chief negotiators. Because if they were to agree to agree to anything else, it would be recognition of Zelensky as president. Exactly.

Yeah. And that would be a significant concession. Okay. Commander Crossfire says, after three years of fighting, Istanbul, a concession, no? Well, if you'd mean Istanbul, plus, I don't, well, I mean, a concession in terms of what, I mean, if you look at what Putin was talking about at the start of the special military operation, he set out various objectives, various goals, the Russians haven't retreated from those. And initially it was going to be

purely about Dombas, but then, of course, they've extended it to other things. So, no, I don't think it would be a concession in terms of the objectives and the goals that the Russians have officially announced. In terms of the expectations that many Russians have, it might be a lot less than a lot of Russians would like to see. But Putin would probably say you move towards your objectives long term and you take each step as it comes. Yeah. Nikos says Putin likes Trump and Trump wants to cooperate with him, but Europe will never stop. And honestly, most Russians are not happy with Istanbul Plus anymore. The EU has already set up Armenia, Azerbaijan and Moldova to fight Russia with Ukraine. It's time for Russia to take Ukraine in its entirety. Well, I think you actually quite accurate and pretty much everything that you've said there, except one thing. I mean, the idea of Armenia and Azerbaijan fighting Russia is an absurd one. That's not going to happen.

But in every other point that you've made, I think, Nikos, you know, I would agree with. And a lot of Russians are no longer satisfied with Istanbul Plus. I mean, they will say, well, look, we got the Ukrainians on the run. Why are we settling just for that? Just saying. Nikos says Levan is right about one thing. Bricks and especially China, having provided military support to Russia. They've let them fight the collective West alone, which is why Russia now has to accept Minsk 3. Well, they haven't accepted Minsk 3.

We've already discussed that. So, I mean, I don't think it's going to happen. Russia has never asked for military assistance from Briggs. So, you know, again, and I don't think it's ever felt that it needed military assistance from Bricks. Of course, it has received military assistance from North Korea, apparently extensive military assistance from North Korea, I mean, in terms of shell production. and of course the, was it 14,000 troops that North Korea sent. So again, I think this is overstating the realities with Bricks by a very high degree.

Iranian Kido says Russia has zero interest to take over the entire Ukraine, millions of people there identify as Ukrainians, and they have no interest to be ruled by Russia. I think you overstated a little. I don't think that the Russians have zero interest in taking over the whole Ukraine. I mean, certainly some Russians would say absolutely we should take over the whole of Ukraine. Ukraine is part of Russia's been part of Russia for 300 years. You know, it was Russian for longer than the United States has existed.

We can't just walk away from the whole of Ukraine. So I don't think it's true to say that the Russians have zero interest in this. But on balance, if you're talking about Putin, and his immediate team and the officials who run things in the Kremlin. I think I would agree. I think that the Russians look at the situation over all in Ukraine, and they say to themselves, look, we are going to go where we are welcome. We are not going to go when we are not.

Maybe over time, if we were to occupy Western Ukraine and all those places, we would be able to bring them around. But it really isn't worth the effort. These places aren't important enough. We would encounter all kinds of resistance. It would land us into all kinds of trouble and problems. It would spoil our relations with the global south. And it would create possible tensions and stresses in Russia itself.

So I think overall I agree with you. But saying that they have zero interest is overstating it. And of course, the longer the war goes on, the more difficult it becomes, and I've said this before in previous programs, to sell Istanbul class to the Russian public at large. Iranian Kido says Russia is at war with Zelensky's government, not the Ukrainian people, although not sure how targeting residential apartment blocks in Kiev, with terrifyingly loud Shaheed drones, helps Russia in their Eastern campaign.

Well, I'm not sure that they do, because the Russian deny that they do. I'm not going to get into the details there, because I'm not in. Kiev and I don't know what hits what. It could very well be that these drones have gone off. They've been diverted from their causes and all sorts of things. But there is a massive information war going on. And by the way, that is completely unsurprising. It is a war after all.

I don't criticize the Ukrainians for, if they are creating stories around this, in war, everybody, to a greater or lesser extent, and does this kind of thing. So I don't criticize the Ukrainians for it. Now, us of the Russians not being at war with the Ukrainian people, but being at war with the Zelensky regime or the Maidan regime, as I think Putin would call it. That is the official Russian position, absolutely.

But, of course, the reality is that a lot of Ukrainians have identified with the Maidan regime, the people, the Russians, are. fighting on the front lines are Ukrainians. And I think that the Russians probably underestimated at the start of the conflict, the extent to which there were some people in Ukraine who were prepared to fight them. Jacqueline Machaca, welcome to the Dran community. Daniel says, where will be their next grift? Sorry, war start. I'm hoping you do not say the Balkans. well it could very well be the Balkans

it's not impossible I mean there's already I mean what I think began as genuine protests against Wurchich have now obviously evolved into a colour revolution attempt I mean you can see it and you can see this with the way the protests

have turned violent just to say but I still think it's more likely to be the Middle East I'm going to say something I think the Middle East is going to be the epicenter of the crisis in the autumn. I think the situation in the Middle East is deteriorating. And I think that Trump knows this, by the way. And I think part of the urgency in getting some kind of a deal done over Ukraine is precisely

because the Americans are worried that the situation in the Middle East is going to get worse. And when I say the Americans are worried. There are, of course, plenty of Americans who want it. And that takes us back to the point about the grift. You keep the money. flowing. Ruhola Bayani says Trump said Putin wants to make a deal because of him. Trump, do you think it's true? The hot mic moment. Well, in a kind of a way, you know, in a funny kind of way, I suppose it is true.

In the sense that I think Putin does understand that this is one president, Donald Trump, with whom some kind of a deal might be possible. He couldn't have achieved a deal with Joe Biden. and that would have been impossible. Most unlikely he could have achieved a deal of any kind with the Barack Obama. But he might be able to agree a deal with Trump that revisits the issues of the security architecture in Europe.

Now, again, I don't think the Russians are naive. They know perfectly well that the Senate probably weren't ratified, that it won't be a treaty. Even if it was a treaty, the United States might walk away from it in future. but for the Russians, it would buy them time. And I've discussed this in many programs. We've talked about this on the Duran.

Russia gets stronger with each passing year. For the moment, and everything is subject to possible change. And I think the Russians calculate, if they're given five, ten years more time, they'll be stronger still when the next crisis and confrontation comes. Jim says what led to the Russian to the fall of the Russian Tsar war with Japan or economic those the major now we did a big big program about this but my own personal view is that the single biggest reason why the monarchy collapsed in February 2017 was because it was subverted from within by the liberal parties in the political establishment again you need to go over the history of this

in great, great detail. But the liberal parties in the Duma, the so-called progressive bloc, used the crisis of the war to try to extract concessions of the Tsar to basically give them control of Russia. And I think this undermined the stability of the monarchy and of the military of the officer corps,

because a lot of the officers were themselves liberals. and eventually it culminated in a crisis which caused the monarchy to fall. Valerie VV.V. says, gentlemen, I hope our paths crossed some day. I was wondering if you would ever make programs on historical or past events, not just current politics. We have done. We have and we will, exactly. Commander Crossfire says, even if nothing comes of the talks, it makes the West look unsure of victory,

which plays into Russia's battlefield morale and diplomatic prestige. You made an excellent point, and I've been very much. thinking about this as myself. I mean, if negotiations begin and if we started moving towards a real negotiation, which will result in the Ukrainians losing control of Donbasson, at the very least, probably Zaporaj and Herzl, and if all those Ukrainian soldiers were still fighting there, sooner or later, surely, given that they know they're already losing, they're going to ask themselves what they do. What on earth are we doing here? One of the things that, happened in Vietnam, by the way. And I remember this very well. It was talked about a lot then,

is that the protracted negotiations between the United States and the North Vietnamese in Paris led to a collapse in U.S. military morale, because all those U.S. soldiers who were being sent to fight in Vietnam said, what are we doing here? Why are we here when we're going to withdraw from here anyway? just saying studio lusant says ban and trash the security guarantee idea yeah agreed and i i i don't think it's going to happen i think this is i think this is a completely i this is a fairy tale actually tom cahill says security guarantees are easy because trump knows russia will not advance further the deal is done no i don't think so i don't think we are there yet actually from from jose s could one scenario be that Zelensky and the EU's incompetent leaders verbally agree to Trump's and

Russia's conditions to simply buy time and wait for Trump to leave office? Well, they are spinning this whole thing out and they're trying to keep the war going precisely because they hope. Alex said this in our program on Monday. They are hoping to wait Trump out in the hope that the next president, who they hope will be a Democratic. will take a different line. So this is what they're all about. That's why they pretend to agree with him, even though they don't. As Ariel says,

noticed how Trump promoted the great USMIC. Yeah, yeah, absolutely. He does this all the time. I don't think this is wise, by the way. I don't think a lot of his support is like him. Yeah. Nico says, you know, I don't like Brian Burlet. proletics nihilism is always right.

Can't we have something good happen? Russia inspires me. They recovered from the worst state. Can't they be left alone? Apparently, no, no, no. They can't be left alone. I mean, this is the real problem, and it's been the crisis in Europe.

I mean, the Europeans and the Americans thought that Russia was gone in the early 1990s. I remember the gloating way they were talking about, the dying bear in articles and all of that kind, going on well into the early 2000s. and they've been horrified by Russia's resurgence. And that's why we've had the war, because the war was an attempt to try to throw this whole process into reverse,

and it hasn't turned out that way. So they won't leave Russia alone. But their ability, their power to push Russia back is reducing. And that's the cause for our hope, if you like. Hat and Dogs 4334 says, thank you for all your hard work and let's hope for peace. Yes. William says, many of us thought the neocons had played Trump like a fiddle, but he's played them like a fiddle. He's still an innocent abroad on this.

So he's about as sure-footed as Biden getting on a plane. I think you make a lot of good boys. I don't think he's played the neocons in quite the way that you have. I mean, that implies a certain facility. skill. I think it would have worked much better for him and for everybody if he'd done what Alex has said at the start of the program and being straightforward. I think that would have worked out much better altogether. Kermanagh and Donsova, thank you for that super sticker. Tom Cahill says the Europeans have folded, no need to act tough. Well, well, I don't think they folded.

They pretended to go along with what Trump says. because they're in such a weak position. But I don't think they've given up on anything. I mean, you listen to Macron, maths and all of them. I mean, they're still demanding the same things as always. A NATO entry, EU entry, troops on the ground, a freeze of the conflict.

They haven't really shifted their position at all. Yeah. Maloney was talking about Article 5 protection. Absolutely, yeah. James Maloney. Exactly. Sir Munchkame says, Trump meets Putin,

then Trump meets EU gargoles from the sublime to the baffling, ridiculous. Well, indeed. And Alex is absolutely right. He shouldn't. She should have told the Europeans. What on earth are you doing here? I don't want you here.

I'm meeting Zelensky. If you wanted to talk to Zelensky, you're welcome to. But my business today is with Vladimir Zelensky, not you. Yeah, but the media, the optics of it all, the flags, Trump's sitting at the head of the table.

He even posted a ridiculous post on whose social. I'm sorry to use that word about, you know, there's great credit in the United States that all of these European leaders are coming to Washington. Well, of course, it wasn't to the credit of the United States. It was intended to put him and the United States in a position of disadvantage. And to get Trump and the United States to do things. that they do not want to do. Caledonian elixir says the ceasefire

and peace deal is a trap for Russia. Yeah, exactly, which is why the Russians have resisted it. Tisham says, did you all mention that the EU vassals were separated from Olensky so they couldn't initially meet? It was Olensky in 47. Yes, and it's absolutely true. And again, in a kind of a sense, very humiliating for them, very humiliating the Trump interrupted the meeting.

with them by going off and talking to Putin. Again, it suggests that he takes Putin more seriously than he does them. But the fact remains that it was bad diplomatic practice all around, to have them there at all, to have them where they could talk up for Zelensky in the way that they did, because that changed the character of the whole discussion. And also to talk to Putin in that kind of way, it was clearly an attempt to bounce Putin into something that he doesn't, hasn't agreed to do.

Iranian Kido says there's never going to be a negotiated settlement. Russia is telling Ukraine to hand over their four regions entirely. And Ukraine, not surprisingly, refusing to do so. This only ends militarily. Well, you know, I wouldn't be to surprise at all if you're right. I mean, you know, it may be, as I said, that we get into a negotiation situation with an outcome, a little bit like the one I described, you know, the Americans pressuring the Ukrainians, into making those fundamental concessions as the military situation turns further and further

against them. But it may be that it will turn out exactly, as you said, that ultimately we will have a military collapse. Zelensky will never make the kind of concessions that he needs to make in order to end the war and the Europeans won't support him. Don Zugar says... We'll support him. It will support him with that. Sorry. Don Zuger says, it's suspected that Maloney, Zelensky, and perhaps a few other of the dwarfs were high at the White House. Your thoughts? I couldn't speculate.

I wasn't there. Who knows? Who knows? Rumor has it that Hunter has something tucked away somewhere. That hasn't been found yet. Indeed. Anyway, Matthew says, you chaps put too much stock in what Trump can actually do. He is in charge of nothing.

The policy paper. extending Russia, not war between America and Russia, there will be no U.S. security guarantee. Well, I agree with that. I mean, I don't think you, I don't personally think there's going to be any meaningful American security guarantee, at least nothing beyond what the Russians themselves laid out of the Istanbul agreement in April 2020. I don't think we're going to see anything beyond that. Who's being extended, though, Alex, is it Russia being extended or is the United States being extended? That's the point.

I mean, that's the point I always make. Who is running out of weapons? Who is running up dead? Whose armies are all over the world with the soldiers becoming increasingly disaffected? Not Russia. Who's begging for a deal? He's making for a deal. Exactly.

Not Russia. Tish M says, any thoughts on why Wittkov went to Russia a few weeks ago and why 47 is so keen on wrapping the U.S.'s regime proxy war wrapped up, perhaps in part due to the British military leaders that Russia captured. Well, who knows? I mean, this is the story about the event in Ochocoff. A lot of discussions about it, but I have absolutely no information, and I'm not going to talk about something I really don't know anything about. I think this sort of thing goes on, but I mean, I'm not saying it did happen. I'm not saying it didn't happen. I simply don't know.

I think there are perfectly good reasons why Trump wants, the Americans would want to end the war now, which are independent of anything that might or might not have happened in Oshikov. The Americans are running out of weapons. The Americans understand that sanctions and tariffs are not going to work, and they're not going to pressure the Russians. They know that the Russians are winning the war. And beyond that, they need to do a deal with China on Trump. because the Chinese are limiting exports of rare earths,

and this is having an increasing impact on the American and European economies. And the Americans know that they can't do that final deal with China, whilst the ongoing Ukraine crisis is underway, because the idiot, Lindsay Graham, has brought up the whole topic of enormous tariffs and sanctions on China, unless there is a deal on Ukraine. deal longer in Ukraine. So you see, this is where this is the trap the Americans are in and why

they're trying to find a way out. And Lindsay Graham is clueless because he continues to believe that Russia's economy is 100% dependent on oil. He said it the other day on Fox News. He says their entire economy runs on oil. The guy's completely clueless. Yes. Yes. I'm clueless and it seems uninterested. I mean, it reminded me of Cruz talking about Iran. That's not even known the population of the country, uninformed. Uninformed. Uninterested, ultimately, yes.

And whatever happened to as long as it takes Alexander and Russia is isolated, Russia is isolated. And here you have a meeting between the president of the United States and six European, seven European countries. And the president of the United States calls up the Russian president in the middle of the meeting with the European countries. Well, exactly. I mean, it tells you who the real person is dealing with is. Exactly. The person who really has agency in power.

Yeah, yeah, exactly, exactly. Where was I? Yeah, Iranian. Yeah, Gio Stone says, how will Putin advise the next Russian president? What advice would you give? The next Russian president is probably already there in the Security Council and is already probably fully informed about everything. And I suspect that whoever that person is is already receiving, if you like, on the job training as we're talking. Yeah, Dominique, thank you for that super sticker. Nico says Trump and the Americans look only territory as a cause of Russia doing bad. I like Colonel Davis, but lately he reverted to the notion of Russia being incapable of breaking through the lines because Ukraine stopped the Pachrosk line.

We have a video on Pakrov, Nico, coming out probably tomorrow because we don't have much time today. We already recorded it. But I think Alexander explains the Pakrov's situation very clearly. I don't know if you want to just explain it quickly, Alexander, without giving away too much from what we said in the video. Yes, I mean, first of all, there's an awful lot of fog of war, which is, by the way, started to clear a little over the last 24 hours. but it looks as if the Ukrainian counter-attacks have not been as successful as some of the early reports suggested. But put that aside, the Ukrainians had to pull forces from all of the rest of the combat line to try to hold back the Russian advance north of Pakrosk.

The result is that the front lines have been weakened in all sorts of other places, and the Russians have made major advances as a result, creating new crises for the Ukrainians elsewhere in Sivirsk, in Konstantinovka, apparently in Zaporosia region also now, in Sumi region where General Sirsky, the Ukrainian commander, has now openly admitted that the Ukrainian country attacks there have failed. So this stabilization in Prakrosk, which might not be quite as complete as we resumption. assumed, or some people have assumed, has come at the expense of creating many, many more problems for the Ukrainians in other places. It's the nature of the way Zelensky runs the war.

He has a crisis in Pachrosk. He throws everything out of it and try to stop the crisis in Prakosk, and everything collapses everywhere else. And the main reason he wanted to stop the crisis in Pakorovsk is because he was going into this meeting. Exactly. That's the main reason. Exactly. Exactly. Iranian Kido says Trump should call it out, but he won't, like many other things, he failed to call out, maybe because he's a neocon after all, food for thought. Well, I think the thing about Trump is that at one level, he's not a neocon, and he hates them, he talks against them, and I think that is sincere. At another level, he accepts an awful lot

of what the neocons are saying. He believes that the United States is, you know, the great power. He believes the United States should continue to be the great power, the greatest power of all. And he talks all the time. I mean, his people talk about peace through strength and all of that. So he shares enough of the rhetoric and of the ideas of the neocons so as to make it possible for them to maintain a hold over it. him and from time to time to pull him back in their direction and until and unless he finally makes a break with all of this i'm afraid we're going to have to live with this trump i think in a way is a transitional figure he is a bridge for the united states to cross as the americans finally put the

neocons behind them but he is not the end to that process maybe a new president maybe president vans will take this process further and then we'll see the neocons finally lose this lock grip that they've had over american policy for so long commander crossfire says thought thought the russians should propose the negotiations take place at the u.n level the conclusion were to be backed by the UN and force the UK EU's hand? Well, can I just say there's problems with this? Firstly, I think eventually there is a deal. The Russians will insist that it's ratified by the UN Security Council

because that's very legalistic people as we know. And that will elevate the deal into international law and all of that. But going to the UN has problems. And the major problem is that the UN Secretary and the UN Secretary, Act and the UN Security General are basically controlled by the West and are pro-Ukraine. So, you know, the UN is not, I think, a format that works with the Russians at this time. And the UN Security Council has a structured majority for the Western powers. Peter S says, thank God we have the Duran.

Thank you, Peter for that. Building 7 says, if Putin doesn't win this war, before he dies, he'll leave Russia in a very precarious situation, and he won't be remembered fondly in history. Why say that? First of all, I don't keep that. He's showing no sign of any time soon. I mean, he seems very strong and very healthy and very vigorous and all of that. So I don't think he's going to die any time soon. I don't think he's going to leave the scene until this war is ended, by the way, and ended on satisfactory terms. I think one of the reasons he's still president of Russia, by the way, is precisely because he wants to see this thing worked out through to its conclusion.

But let us say that he was to drop dead tomorrow. It happens. People do die unexpectedly. I doubt that much would change, actually, in terms of Russian policy. I think that the Russian Security Council, the Russian political elite, are pretty united, around this. I suspect that some of them, most of them probably, more hardline about it than Putin is himself. I agree with that. Sir Mugg's game says, according to Gostas la Pavitas, the second largest repository of US treasuries is held in London by private interests. Does this explain Kier's, sorry, does this explain

Kier's relevance, Kirstama? Well, I don't think so because you're talking about private interests here. Let's put it like this. It explains why Kirstama things the hymns that he does and why Britain has the kind of governments that it has done because it gives you a sense of the oligarchical nature of power here in London. Stama himself, in my opinion, is a face. Here's the cutout that they put the concealable way in which things are done behind the seats. I said this before he was elected, by the way.

I remember saying this, this is when Lee Strass was brought down, that yes, the political establishment, the club, the establishment, the political class in Britain, they preferred, they wanted Brishi Sunak because he was one of them. But their ultimate objective was to make Kirstama prime minister. That they did. Tisham says, Pepe Escobar mentions that President Putin

is also representing bricks during negotiations. love you guys oh well yeah maybe probably william says i've just ordered my ccc p t-shirt on amazon for a laugh there are loads of them there are seasons must have as you make your way to any hotel absolutely elza says the west is not aware of the fact that putin is a lawyer to them he's only an evil kgb agent you're completely you're completely correct about that you're totally right about it haruko thank you for that super chat nico says the greek media called out Mitsodakis for his incompetence. He is slimy.

He is weak. He is corrupt. And he destroyed Greece's relationship with Russia. Turkey is at its strongest and they'll destroy us. Worst Prime Minister ever. I agree with a lot of what you said. He's been a pretty bad prime minister. Yeah.

Absolutely. Because Jim says, is Iran ready for the next war? Yes. Well, I think it's getting more and more ready all the time. I think that they're doing lots of things internally and externally. They can see it's coming for one thing. And I think they're preparing for it. Lord Kovu, thank you for that super sticker.

And Lord Kovu, thank you for that super chat. Ruby Appel says Putin will not meet with Zelensky, whether ambushed by Trump or not, and the Europeans show their impotence as mere adornments in all of this. Well, we'll see what happens. I think this is going to be a very complicated and rather interesting affair. As I said, the Russians have said quite clearly where they want things, to go. They want a negotiation now between themselves and the Ukrainians, with the Ukrainians

ultimately agreeing to Istanbul. Plus, they want the Ukrainians to respond to their memorandum. From a Russian point of view, the big thing that has happened this week, this last, well, this last week is that the topic of a ceasefire has been put out of the way. Everything else, as I said, is noise. Samuel Moroni says Trump doesn't fear Europe. He fears the neocons. Yes, I agree with that completely. Europe is the, yeah, the neocons.

Yeah, the eocons are in the back, yeah. Johari says, why the U.S. didn't walk away to begin with when Trump comes in? What's so difficult if they can walk away from other wars? example of Vietnam, Afghanistan, why Ukraine is any different? Well, bear in mind, in Afghanistan and Vietnam, the Americans did walk away, but it took them a very long time, and they engaged in this incredibly complicated political, diplomatic process first, and they needed all kinds of agreements, and only then did they walk away. I think the reason is face.

I think that, and I think this played a big role in causing Trump to stick with project Ukraine or at least to continue to involve himself in Ukraine when he became president. I still will say that was a mistake. I will continue to say that. But I think ultimately the Americans just feel they have to be there and can't just let it go. Derek Diggler, thank you for that super chat. Laurie Cusk says, does Putin have and will he give the US docs per JFK? I wonder. I don't know.

Jamila says Trump should make peace with Russia, but he does not do it. True? Trump, absolutely true. I mean, I think at multiple levels, he understands what a extremely good thing for the U.S. that would be, but he always holds back. Sparky says many assume President Putin's history lesson in Alaska was lost on President Trump. I believe in the excitement of seeing President Putin, a friend whom he respects, Trump listened with great interest. Well, according to reports that have appeared in the US media,

when Putin at Trump meet, Trump does listen to what Putin says. How much he takes in is a different question. This is a very complicated history, as Putin repeatedly points out. And it takes time to really work through it properly. And whether Trump really gives himself that time, I don't know. Bitter Klinger says the West, Trump is still convinced the economic warfare will defeat Russia, the Azeri-Imanian arrangements seem orchestrated to supply Europe with oil.

Yeah, I think that's entirely right. Except, of course, that Ata Pashan doesn't have the level, the quantities of oil that Europe needs. I mean, it's a middling producer. It's not Saudi Arabia. It's not Russia. It's not Kuwait or Qatar. I mean, people have built up Azerbaijan.

And I believe, by the way, I mean, I don't know very much about this. Maybe people will say I'm wrong. But I believe that the Caspian oil wells are largely depleting now. Just saying. Commander Crossfire. Just did it again. YouTube keeps. Yes, no, they jump.

Keeps crashing. Yeah, jumping. Yeah. One sec. Let's go to this question. Shlomo Nissenbaum says Putin must use the world stage. He's finally being afforded to detail Western War on Russia since 2014, highlighting coup, slaughter, etc.

World up is ignorant of this and it's a linchpin of the Russian argument. Well, indeed, but bear in mind that Putin has been active in international diplomacy throughout this whole period. I mean, it's the West that has told itself that he mustn't speak to it. him. There's a strong article today, by the way, well, yesterday, still there up today, by Owen Matthews in the Daily Telegraph, which finally says that not talking to the Russians has been a terrible mistake. Rafael says, after watching the whole thing, I am more convinced that Russia needs to move on from Putin and replace him with a junkyard dog, too much pageantry.

Commando Crossfire says, have Russian relations with North Korea reshaped the balance of power, on the peninsula more than nukes north korea quickly catching up militarily maybe economically yes it's transformed the situation on the korean peninsula lori kusk says the europeans owe russia money and assets how is war going that's a very good point and i mean you know if if there's a peace agreement and the russians ask for their money back which they will by the way they always do what will the europeans say given that they've been spending it spending more of it than they admit to, as Alex pointed out. Hello there. When you look at the history of Russia, what is the probability

of Russia having a weak leader after Putin? It cannot be excluded. And of course, one can't look into the future. I don't think it's going to happen. Niko says, I see dark things ahead for Serbia. This is Vuchich's last term, and he has zero control of his government, dark stuff when he goes, aka Serbia's collapse. I think there may be some truth in what you are saying. I mean, I've never been a huge fan of which issues, just to make that absolutely clear. What I get to say about the Serbs, though, is that they are a very tough people, and I think they will come through. I don't know how easy it's going to be, but they will eventually come through.

Sparky says both President Putin and Xi like President Trump and know what he's up against. They go out of their way to understand and help him. they cut him a huge amount of slack. You're absolutely right. Jack Ridley, thank you for that super sticker. Valerie VV says, been a subscriber for several years, never heard a program on past events

unless it's mentioned in relation to current events. Perhaps you used to. We used to. We used to. You can find it. If you go to our homepage, you can find it. Yeah. Elza says,

why not ask North Korea for security guarantees? Amash says, did you like Zelensky's suit? No. I mean, again, again, to be frank, Trump was far too weak about this. Yeah. The word was that he wanted Zelensky to turn up in a suit and tie, and he put on a jacket, but it wasn't a proper suit. But he did, exactly, he didn't wear a top.

Yeah, just put on a tie. tie. I don't understand why you can't put on a tie. Anyway, Gio Stone says, what's stopping the EU and UK arming Ukraine for the next two years? And it's starting all over again once a new president is elected in the US. Great work. They don't have any, they don't have any weapons. First of all, I mean, I am confident that when there's an agreement done, the Russians will place restrictions on this. But the EU is in no position to arm itself, then alone Ukraine. I mean, the state of the British military, which I know an awful lot about, is such that, I mean, we could probably not even put a battalion together to fight the Russian army, not let alone arming a whole Ukrainian army. You were going to say something, Alex.

I forgot. I forgot. Laurie Cusk says, no matter what's on TV, America respects Russia because strength and faith. Yeah. Cameron says, Iran should listen to John Mercer. and go for nukes. That's the only path to lasting peace in the Middle East. It may very well come to that. It may very well come to that. I can imagine, I can easily imagine that there are debates going on in Iran at the moment, which are pushing for that

and pushing for that hard. William says Putin is concerned about more than Ukraine per se. He also wants to bank the gains Russia's made militarily, economically, diplomatically, and geopolitically. Ukraine is part of a very big picture. Yes, it is. But I mean, at the same time, don't underestimate the importance for Russians of Ukraine. So, I mean, there are emotional and visceral concerns, too, which should never be understating. Alex Fonov says U.S. politicians always need some kind of money laundering operation. Raphael says, now I understand why Stalin went so far to exclude Trotsky, want to be cosmopolitan like Putin is a danger to Russia.

Putin is compromised and not whole. Putin is not something like Trotsky for one thing. It's a completely different person. And he's certainly no cosmopolitan. He is very, very much a Russian and a Russian nationalist and patriot. Michael says security guarantees from another wonder Wafa. Like what could possibly guarantee security that, hasn't worked already. Well, indeed. Well, indeed. So, quite true. Mark Hewitt says, if Trump goes to Moscow,

should Putin arrange the flyover of an Oreschnik as a sign of friendship? I think if he comes to Moscow, and of course, Putin in Alaska made it clear that he does expect Trump to come to Moscow. I would not be surprised if before any kind of meetings between Zelensky and Putin, Putin says, look, I mean, you promised me a meeting in Moscow, and now it's the time to come. Remember what he said publicly at the press conference? But if Trump comes to Moscow, the Russians will pull out all the stops. There'll be ceremonies, there'll be bomb, there'll be things of the Kremlin.

There'll be all kinds of things. The Russians are very good at that kind of thing, by all. Laurie says, I think peace comes when the U.S. quits paying for the war. Yes. Yeah. Malde Bligbad says Trump has to treat Europe as a woman wife even if deranged. I've had other people say that, by the way. We answered the next Russian president one, right?

How will Putin advise the next year how we have answered that. Socratic Violet, thank you for that super sticker. Anne Marie Riley, thank you for that super chat. Monty says, what needs to happen for the West to stop trying to destroy Russia? Is it racism or are Europeans just trying to compensate for the fact that Europe has basically become a suitcase without a handle? I think that what has to happen is for Russia to become richer than Europe. When that happens, then the Europeans will understand that that is impossible. Now, interestingly enough, I read, and this is an interesting thing, I didn't know,

but I read a rather detailed analysis about economics. And to my great surprise, it turned out the per capita GDP on a purchasing power parity basis in Russia is now higher than in Italy. By the way, I believe that. I think that is probably true. So it's not that far from the British level either. And if you compare London with Moscow today, you might believe that too. So we might be closer to that situation than we have perhaps been at any time before. But, you know, 10, 20 years and of continued economic growth in Russia,

which is never a given, but maybe we will get there then. So how he also says Trump is a doorstop, Rick Wiles 2016. Yeah. Gio Stone says the EU will not lift sanctions. Do you see they will? Well, if the United States ever does

lift sanctions, which is far from certain, by the way, get a peace agreement. But if it ever did, I mean, the Europeans would have no choice but to do that. But they don't want to do it. They have no desire to do it, at least the political leaders that we have at the moment don't want to do it. Of course, if we have a government led by the IFDA in Germany, then everything changes. The Iranian kiddo says it's important to mention that losing to Japan wasn't the only reason Russia became communist losing on the Prussian campaign played a big role.

there's many, many things to say here. As I said, there were foreign policy crises. There was enormous economic and social changes in Russia that took place at that time. But ultimately, I think the key to understanding the events in 1917 is to understand that there was a crisis within the political elite. in Russia, that is always how crises begin. They start at the center. If they expand to the periphery, to the regions, to the wider population, then of course they have a habit of getting out of control.

Harry C. Smith says, when will they figure out it's not Ukraine that needs security guarantees? It's Russia. Only pan-European security for all can prevent conflict. Mikhail Lulianov, who is a Russian diplomat, just made that point. yesterday. And I've no doubt at all that he was doing that on instructions. Seraphim says, what if Putin knows that these peace talks will fail but engages in the fiction in order to confuse and stall DJT? Could he be playing for DHS? I don't think so. I think that Putin, when he engages in negotiations, does so in good faith.

I've never got the sense that Putin was the trickster and duplicitous individual that the media in the West pretends. But, of course, the outcome might be, as you say. Sticky Mark says, do you think Trump sees that his MAGA plan can't be spent on bombed into existence and trying to do what will end with the USA, UK, and EU in Tetris? Yes, I think it does. I mean, I think that's what MAGA ultimately is all about. It's focusing on the United States.

and not wasting time on all of these other extraneous issues, one of which from Trump's point of view is Ukraine. Olga L says thank you. Thank you, Olga. Lord Kovu says both Gorbachev and Yeltsin's children must be living in utter shame and contempt. I don't know anything about them. Iranian kiddo says, Alexander, can you share some of the doctoral thesis you read about Russia-Japanese war? I'd like to learn more about the causes of the conflict, which universities had published them.

Oh, I don't remember that now. It was a British university that I read and the one that I remember. But there were several of them. The first is that the diplomacy was completely different from everything that I believed. I'd always assumed and I'd always imagined that the conflict began over an argument about Korea. Because the Russians had influenced in Korea and the Japanese were competing with the Russians and Korea. nothing of the sort, it turns out. The main cause of the crisis between Japan and Russia was Manchuria.

The Russians had sent troops into Manchuria to help suppress the boxer uprising. And the Japanese weren't happy about that because they wanted to extend their own influence into Manchuria. The Tsar came under enormous pressure from the Russian military to withdraw from Manchuria. and the Russian military told the Tsar that if there was a war with Japan, Japan had massive military superiority over Russia in the Far East and that Russia would suffer defeats at the beginning because the Japanese were so much stronger. And the Russians did pull out of Manchuria

and that the Japanese nonetheless decided to go to war. And it turned out that even Manchuria wasn't the real real. reason why the Japanese went to war. The main jet reason in the end was the building of the Trans-Siberian Railway. The British and the Japanese were close allies at that time. Didn't like the fact that the Trans-Siberian Railway had been built because they worried that that would lead to a huge increase in Russian power in the Far East. So the British who had issues with Russia, as they were.

always do, and the Japanese who wanted to extend their influence in Russia gang together. They brought up the issue of Manchuria, from which the Russians had already decided to pull out, and launched a war in order to push the Russians out of the Far East. That is a summary of a very, very complicated thesis, massively researched, which I read years ago, supplemented by a number of other thesis that I read as well. Marco says Zelensky is proving himself an inferior equivalent of the Mustanis. Likewise, we all hoped that DJT might embody Caesar, but at best we got Crossus. Well, I would.

Crosses was a clever man. And don't write off Trump entirely. But any comparison between Demasthenes and Zelensky, the two are so unlike. I'm not even going to start. I mean, Dermazthenes, for one thing, never used, never engaged in bad language in any of these speeches. Fazi Baal says Medvedev will be Putin's successor? Quite possibly.

Dirk Diggler says, how will Europe and the UK hold off Russia until 2008? They won't. I mean, if the Russians were really coming forward, then they wouldn't. And I'm going to tell you something. After 2028, the balance of power will have shifted. even further towards Russia. All of these plans to rearm are absolute pie in the sky.

Nico says, as I said, before, Putin needs one last term to find the successor. Quietly, that is not Medvedev. So far, even when the Russian people flip on him, like this summit, he wins them back, but he has to be careful. It might be, it might be Medvedev. I mean, Medvedev is still there

and he's still playing a very important role. So it might be Medvedev. Who else it could be? I'm not going to speculate. I suspect that there's already been a decision made about this and has been for some time. A lot of speculation in Russia is that it's a man called duomin, who is a former military special forces person. And has been given all sorts of rather important positions within the executive office. But I'm not going to get into a discussion about this because I'm not good at this kind of thing.

Elsa says, I wonder if Trump gave history lessons to Zelensky standing next to the map of Ukraine. No. Iranian Qaeda says history has hardly been fair to many good figures. Just look at Roman history emperors like Aurelian, Galanius and Majorian, who saved the empire in its worst shape are not hardly ever mentioned. You have an extraordinarily good knowledge of history, if I could say. Of course, Iran had major interactions with the Roman Empire. You're absolutely right about all of those people. Gallienis who held the empire together during the third century crisis,

Orreliant, who started to put it back on its feet. And, of course, Majorian, the last important emperor to rule Rome in the 5th century. Anyway, what can I say? former European leaders, Churchill, de Gaul, people like that, took history seriously. The present bunch are not interested in it. They never read it. Exactly. They're a litter.

They can't do math. They can't do exactly. Kiwan F8 says, can you imagine Trump and Melania at the Bolshoi the internet would break? True? Well, I think they'd love it, actually. I mean, lots of nice costumes and things. that kind. I mean, they put on a really, a really flamboyant one, like,

I don't know, a Laballadere or something like that. I think they quite enjoyed. Only, don't make it too long. Commander Crossfire says, Old Kiev shouldn't be overlooked. Its separation is akin to D.C. or Delaware being independent,

anti-American state, given being an independent American state, Kievan, Rus' origin of Russian civilization. Oh, absolutely. I mean, the Russians talk about this a lot. And you follow the Russian media. There's a big, big thing there about the plundering of Russian, of the Orthodox monasteries and churches in Kiev and of the fact that a lot of their treasures

are now ending up in the West. There's been a big, big topic on the Russian Internet, by the way. Phil C says, were the media this delusional through World War II? How well informed were the Western public through this period? They're much better informed than they are today. if you go to the British media of that time, it's a darkness of light compared to the media today. Lola, thank you for that super sticker. Elza says Olenski can't put on a tie because he's a heroic wartime leader of an independent sovereign and democratic country, L.O.L.

Exactly. Sticky Mark says, until the love of power becomes the power of love, we will not know peace, Jimmy Hendricks. Yeah. Iranian Kiddo says, we only hear about great, Constantine and Theodosius were in history. They sure were great for their favoritism to certain religious sex in Constantinople, but their actions led to direct fall of the empire. Well, remember, we're both Orthodox Christians,

so we have reasons to be more sympathetic to Constantine and Theodosius than yet. Gio Stone says, Alexander, have you read all the books behind you? Yes. Gio Stone says, will a mass exit of Ukraine men, will a mass exit of Ukraine men be on a peace deal? Well, who knows? Quite possibly. Marcos 588 says, Tushé Alexander.

I get the objection. I met the comparison in that Demosthenes incurred Macedonian wrath to Athenian ruin as Olensky has to Russia. Yeah, I think that's true. And Marcos 588 says, cheers to fellow majorian appreciations. And I think that's everything. That's everything. Yeah. We should do one on Roman history.

Late Roman history. It's not talked about enough. I quite agree. Yeah, we just need more hours in the day. We need more hours of the day. Exactly. Oh, we need if someone can figure that one out then. Yes.

Yes. Okay. Your final thoughts, Alexander, is I just do a quick check. Yes, I mean, there's a huge amount going on. And, you know, we're in a state of flux, and the next thing that's going to happen is there's going to be a major push from the Americans to get this trilateral summit with Putin and Zelensky together. I think the Russians are setting up their positions. There probably will be a lot of disappointment, a lot of anger. And it's far from certain that we're not going to see a reversion back to the sanctions threats and war threats.

And Putin is disappointing me and being instructive and all of those things that we're. we've heard already. But overall, I still think that we've had, if not a breakthrough, at least a step forward over the last week, the talk about a ceasefire, the Kellogg Plan, in other words, General Kellogg's whole approach for the moment has been abandoned. And that is the most important thing. Iranian Kido says, that's funny polytheism was still practiced. I love ancient Greek and Roman art and religion. Indeed. And as I'm sure you know, Iranian kiddo,

Galeenus's father, Valerian, was defeated by the Shah, the Shah of Persia, Shapoor of the Sasanid dynasty, and was the only Roman emperor to be captured in battle and lived out his life in exile in Iran. And there's a huge monument in Iran in which Shapoir lays it all out. So lots to talk about that. Okay. We'll be back later on today with another live stream with Dennis Kucinich.

Indeed. So that's going to happen in about a little over three hours. That's right. That's right. So we'll catch everybody then. And thank you for joining us on Odyssey and Rakfin and Rumble, YouTube, and the durand. Dot locals.com. And thank you to our awesome.

some moderators for helping us out in the chat. And we will see you guys in a couple of hours. One second, Alexander, from big ideas. Can't Ukraine become the 51st state of America? Zelensky would like that. Oh, you would love it, yeah. I think Zelensky would like that. Yeah, careful what you wish for.

All right. We will let it there. See you, everybody soon. Take care.