The Duran Podcast - One step closer to regional war

Episode Date: August 30, 2024

One step closer to regional war

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the situation in the Middle East. It looks like we are moving closer to a conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. There were missiles preemptive. The reports are that Israel launched a preemptive strike against targets in Lebanon, Hezbollah, targets infrastructure in Lebanon. Hezbollah responded by launching missile strikes on targets, military targets, and infrastructure in Israel. And this has taken us to the point where we could be getting a war between Israel and Hezbollah,

and of course that could wide it out to a conflict between Israel and Iran. Where are we with this latest escalation? Well, I think the key thing to take away from this is the last one that you've just made. This is a major step, a further major step, towards an all-out. regional war. Now, we're not there yet because both sides, especially in this instance, Hezbollah, are exercising some level of restraint. And, you know, it hasn't fully broken out yet. But we are very, very much closer than we were. Now, let me just make a quick point about these missile and airstrikes. Neither side, in my opinion, is telling the truth about what.

what exactly happened. So if we take the Israeli side first, they say that they carried out a preemptive air strike against Hezbollah missile bases. A hundred Israeli aircraft were used. Now that, I do believe, by the way, that was a massive air strike, huge air strike by Israel. They're claiming that they've destroyed large numbers of Hezbollah's missile infrastructure, missile bases, missile positions, all of that sort of thing. Then Hezbollah supposedly carried out its retaliatory strike, which had been disorganized by the Israeli attack. It was ineffectual. The Hezbollah failed to do here to single important target inside Israel. The only damage that. that was done was when debris fell from an Israeli missile that intercepted a Hezbollah rocket,

some debris fell on an Israeli warship and killed a crewman. That's the Israeli side of the Israeli claim. Hezbollah's claim is completely different. They say that this was not a preemptive strike by the Israelis. Hezbollah carried out his own strike. They launched 320 missiles. plus large numbers of drones. They were attacking

Israeli intelligence facilities around Tel Aviv. Their missiles and rockets supposedly got through. And the Israeli strike on them was completely ineffective. And both sides are saying that. Both sides are saying that the attack on each of them was ineffective and that their own strike did massive amounts of damage. even though in the case of the attack on Israel, we have only one person supposedly killed. And in the attack on Lebanon, on Hezbollah in Lebanon, according to the Israelis, only three people were killed.

So it's very difficult to get a complete sense of what's going on. We don't have alternative data information that can confirm to us what each site, you know, rather what each side is saying is true. And I don't think either side is telling the full truth about this. The key thing to see here, let's not get drawn into exactly who struck first and what they were doing. The key thing is, we're now getting Hezbollah launching big missile strikes on Israel, and Israel carrying out very big air strikes on Hezbollah. A hundred aircraft is a huge missile, huge airstrike. That's one of the biggest air strikes that's happened, you know, for many, many years in the Middle East, you know, if you exclude the fighting in Gaza itself. And to my mind,

when forces on this scale are operating, that tells us that we're getting very, very close now to an all-out regional war. So what is, um, what is the reason for for hesbalah holding back or or for israel not continuing to escalate further i mean are they just not ready is the military Israeli military not ready to to get into a full full scale war with hezbollah is hezbollah uh not ready for for a conflict with israel i mean what's the reasoning okay so so you have a huge escalation and then it stops and Now we're going to wait for the next huge escalation. What does this spiral out of control into?

Yes. Yes. I mean, these are, if you like, you know, the first rumblings that are going to lead to the storm, the flashes of lightning before the storm breaks. Now, let's start with Hezbollah. Why are they clearly exercising some elements of restraint? Because they said so yesterday. They said that, you know, that they carried up the strike.

It'd been successful. they've avenged their assassinated commander, Fuad Shukh, which is what this is all about. And, you know, this is not the end of the story, as their leader, Nazrallah has said, there will be more, but, you know, for the moment, they're not going further. The reason, I think, is that Hezbollah is working closely with Iran, and Iran is not ready. Now, what exactly is playing out in Iran? We've discussed in many programs. My own view is that Iran is itself preparing for a big war.

I don't think they were ready for a big war until, you know, the Haniyah assassination took place. I think that they're, you know, hardening up their facilities, importing air defense systems and fighter jets from Russia. By the way, interestingly enough, we had all those reports a couple of weeks ago in the US media about Iran importing air defense missiles, S-400 missiles, from Russia. I have not seen any denials of that story, either from Iran or importantly from Russia itself. Now, you know, one mustn't jump and say that because something hasn't been denied, it must be true. But I would have thought that if it were untrue, the Russians certainly would be denying it. And they are not. I, you know, follow the Russian media closely.

I've not seen a single official denial from the Russians that they are indeed supplying air defense systems to Iran. So Iran needs to get all its forces in place. They need to get themselves ready so that when the war happens, they're ready for it. And I don't think they're ready. They feel that they were ready for it when Hania was assassinated. And I think that they're working towards getting themselves ready for it. So as for Israel, I think here the explanations are different. Firstly, there is a division within Israel.

So Netanyahu, the hardline members of his cabinet, and I suspect some hardline members of the Israeli military, they want to get their strike on Iran and their war in the Middle East as soon as possible. They're probably aware that there are preparations in Iran and they want to preempt them. And that's where the whole business about preemption comes in. But they have political problems. Firstly, the army, the ground forces in Israel are opposed to this. And they've made that absolutely clear, as are some of the intelligence agencies.

They're saying, look, we've had a 10-month war in Gaza that has not been successful. It's sapped the military. Moral is low. The military has taken significant losses. We haven't achieved our mission in Gaza. We don't want to expand the war to involve ourselves in an equally grueling and difficult war against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Well, beyond that, getting into a battle with Iran, that really isn't what we want or need either. And the intelligence agencies are backing the ground forces.

They're apparently telling Netanyahu this really isn't a good idea. So there is this tension within Israel itself. And of course, there's also the issue of the elections in the United States starting an all-out war in the least before the elections take place is probably not something that the current administration and the Democrats want to see. And they're putting as much pressure as they can to try to hold the Israelis back to the extent that they can. But with every day that passes, the tension grows, the flashes of lightning, just like the ones we saw over the weekend, come closer and the thunder gets louder.

And sooner or later, the storm is going to break. I cannot see any other way. Yeah, so Netanyahu wants this war. That's what it comes down to. And there's no one in the Biden White House who is capable of reigning in Netanyahu. who at one point in time, they tried to remove him. Didn't work. Biden ended up being removed instead of Netanyahu.

But there's no understanding in the Biden White House, in the State Department as to how to moderate or tone down Netanyahu's push for a war. This is the problem that the United States finds itself. and is the problem of the Middle East right now, is Netanyahu's push for a war. And even the Israeli military, it seems like they can't find a way to stop Netanyahu's push for a conflict. You know, the military, the Israeli military,

at the end of the day, they're going to do as Netanyahu borders, I imagine. Yes. But they're saying that they're not prepared for an all-out conflict. Iran is preparing now for conflict. That's going to probably take some more time. Is there any way to prevent this cycle of escalation, which will eventually lead to a full-on war? Is there anyone or anything that can prevent this on any side? I don't think so.

And I have to, you know, this is where I have to be, you know, Frank, one would like to believe that there was some way out. But as you correctly say, Netanyahu wants a war. The Israeli cabinet wants a war. We had an article a couple of weeks ago in the Financial Times, which showed how angry and bitter the arguments between Netanyahu and his generals and his intelligence people have become. So they all want, you know, they don't want a war, but Netanyahu obviously does. The people in his cabinet want a war.

The government in the United States is very, very weak at the moment. and isn't really able to exert itself. The Europeans are hopeless. They have no influence over these events whatsoever. When one side in a conflict wants a rule, war tends to happen. And unless something dramatic happens to Netanyahu's position over the next couple of weeks,

I think the drift of war is all but inevitable. Can I just say, in terms of Netanyahu's position, I think the thing to say is it's getting stronger. He's, as he rightly say, he's seen off Biden, not that Biden was ever really very, and a very effective check on him. He's seen off the more soft members of his war cabinet. They've peeled away, which has left his government more concerned. coherent and more hardline, and his poll ratings in Israel are rising. Now, that which most people are not aware of. Obviously, lots of other things are going wrong.

The Israeli economy is continuing to decline. Israel's credit rating is falling. It's running into bigger economic problems. The military, or at least the ground forces. I don't know about the Air Force or the Navy, but the ground force. are unhappy. But as I said, when one person who is in the position that Netanyahu is in wants a war, it's very difficult to see what can prevent it. The only thing that could perhaps prevent it is a change in the United States, a shift in policy in the United States,

a decisive shift in policy, whereby, you know, a new administration perhaps takes over and says to Netanyahu enough. But I don't see that. I mean, the current administration is going to remain in office apparently until January, at least that's the plan. It seems incredible to me, given that all that's been said about the incumbent president and his inability to be the Democratic Party's candidate, but apparently the plan is that he will continue to be there,

even if he does step down before. January. The person who would take over would be the vice president in her speech at the convention. She didn't show any sign of wanting to change or modify the current president's policies. And, well, if there is a complete change of administration in January, firstly, the people who are likely to take over are probably friends of Netting Yahoo. But besides January is very far away. I mean, we're talking about months, by which time the war would probably have already begun.

Final question, what isn't that in Yahoo gained from a war with Iran? Well, I think what he gains is I think he thinks he's going to win. This is the problem. I think he's worked himself up into believing that the regime there is very fragile, that unless, you know, if he kicks hard enough, if he provides. he could get the United States and the other Western powers to back him. And I mean, aggressively back him to deploy their own air forces against Iran. I think he thinks he can win.

And that's always a very dangerous assumption, because I think probably he's wrong about that. But I think he thinks if he can win, if he can somehow smash the regime, in Iran, well then at that point, his position in Israel itself is secure, and his wider policies, greater Israel and all that can be executed successfully. His foreign minister has already brought up the idea of Britain and France participating in an attack on Iran. All right. We will end it there. The durand.com. We are on Rumble, Odyssey, Bichu, Telegraph, Twitter X and go to the Duran shop. Pick up some merch like the t-shirts we are wearing today.

You will find the link in the description box down below to the Duran shop. Take care.