The Duran Podcast - One world, three powers. EU claims Black Sea

Episode Date: June 1, 2025

One world, three powers. EU claims Black Sea

All right, Alexander, let's talk about this New York Times article with the title, Trump's vision, One World Three Powers. President Trump's recent actions and statements suggest he might want an arrangement where the United States, China, and Russia each dominate their sphere of influence. This article was published a couple of days ago, but spheres of influence. very familiar to a show that I remember watching a couple of months ago. Anyway, your thoughts. I know, I mean, absolutely. I mean, we may, I mean, one can be as facetious. We can be, we can be wonderfully facetious about this. But I mean, here's another example. I mean, you know, we were discussing spheres of influence. Donald Trump and thinking about a system where, as I said, global powers, great powers, China, Russia. the United States, withdraw basically into spheres of influence, establish a kind of multipolar system involving each other.

We even set out, and we discussed this. We also discussed, we actually coined the expression, but we used the term spheres of influence to describe what it seems that Trump was thinking about. we even set out what the American sphere of influence was likely to be. Canada, Mexico, Greenland, Central America, the Panama Canal and all of that. And now here, many months later, we get an article in the New York Times, which says exactly the same thing. It just took them a few months to get there.

But, you know, they managed it. They finally got to the point which we reached. I think it was in late January, early February or sometime around that time. Yeah. Is spheres of influence possible anymore? Or actually, let me rephrase that. Is spheres of influence possible if there's a breakdown in the talks between Russia and the United States? Yes. I mean, are the two dependent on each other, or can they be exclusive? No, they're not exclusive and they can in theory happen. But obviously, given that spheres of influence, almost by definition, are things that great powers have to negotiate with each other, then obviously if there's a breakdown in the negotiations and a defeat for Ukraine and for the

collective West in Ukraine, the negotiating what will be the Russian sphere of influence is going to become much, much more complicated. Having said that, you could also argue that once the dust settles... Maybe it'll be simpler. Exactly. Once the dust settles, it'll be simpler, exactly, because the Russian sphere of influence will effectively have established itself. The Russians will be essential control of Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, the Caucasus, all of those places. So you could argue that, you know, it may take a little more time to do. There'll be a lot more acrimony, but, you know, we would be moving closer to getting a clearer sense of what the Russian sphere of influence would. would be. And the question then is, might it also extend to other places in Eastern Europe, in the Balkans, for example, then apparently the Russians could conceivably be looking for now? And I mean, these are questions, which I don't think we can answer at this point, but, I mean,

it's something that one can easily imagine might have to be asked at some level. I think we are, by the way, and I think this is something that people need to understand, putting aside what Trump himself probably wants. And I think spheres of influence probably does represent his own thinking. I think he does, deep down, wants to see the United States concentrate on its own region. I think he's fed up with Europe. I think he has little time for Europe. I think that is true of many of the people.

in his administration, particularly those who are closest to him. I think he wants to pull out of the United States from Europe. I think he wants the United States to concentrate on his own region. And I think he would be happy, what were happy, I think he would be perfectly relaxed with the other two great powers, Russia and China doing the same. So I think that is probably, probably that New York Times article like us are a accurately describing Trump's thinking. But put aside Trump, I think that is the world we're heading to anyway.

Now that the unipolar moment has gone and there is no attempt any longer, or at least the attempt to make the entire world a globalist sphere, if you like, enforced for the globalists by the US hyperpower, given that that project is about to fail completely, it is almost inevitable that we're going to start to see the Great Powers establish some kind of concerts together and that they will establish spheres of influence. And that once those spheres of influence are recognized and understood, that will probably be the world we will see, and it'll be a more stable one that we have, the one we have now. So I think that is where we're heading, as I said, almost regardless of what Trump himself

might be thinking. Yeah, it's based a lot on geography. I guess this three power spheres of influence, but I don't think it can be based on geography. I mean, you know, you have two bricks countries. This is indeed the thinking or the plan going forward, or the outcome. that eventually is coming our way. You have two BRICS countries, the two main BRICS countries, China and Russia, controlling their spheres. You have Brazil, which is another major BRICS power, but that would be in the U.S.'s sphere. I mean, is the U.S. ready to give up on Asia, on the South Pacific? Where does Europe fit in? Where does the EU fit into all of this? I mean, it's a vassal of the United States.

Yes. No doubt about it. The European Union is 100% a vassal of the U.S., 100% dependent on the United States, including all of the 27 member nations of the European Union, are 100% dependent on the United States for everything. Where does the EU fit into all of this? Well, outside it, If I can put it like that. I mean, under who? For example, like under who would they, I mean, they're a vassal of the U.S., but would the U.S. continue to take care of a broke, bankrupt, corrupt, corrupt European Union? I mean, that's the point.

That is the point about an American sphere of influence. It won't extend to the EU. I mean, there will probably be, I mean, between the great powers, there will be regions where the great powers do not establish direct spheres of influence and don't try to control them in the way that they would control politics, if you like, within their own sphere. So the United States would significantly downgrade its presence in Europe. It would pull out its troops from Europe. It would do all kinds of things of that kind. It would probably would maintain some kind of a relationship with the EU, but the EU, the European states, would be

basically left on their own to sort themselves out, even as the United States retreats into its own sphere. You are absolutely correct, by the way. The United States has a natural sphere of influence. It's North America and perhaps Central America as well, and it could include Greenland, which, by the way, geographically, I believe, counts as North America. It's very much more difficult to see what the other obvious spheres of influence of the other great powers would be. So if we're talking about Russia, I've already said, I mean, does it include, does it extend, the Russian sphere of influence extend into some places in Eastern Europe? One can imagine that logically it would do. I mean, places like Bulgaria, Yugoslavia, former Yugoslavia, it just means Serbia, by the way, I mean the former Yugoslavia.

I can easily see, however, how that would be very intensely resisted and it might not be something that the Russians themselves want to see. Then if we're talking about spheres of influence, how does that match up with the relationship between China and Russia? I mean, would they treat Central Asia as a joint sphere of influence? Would they each continue their strategic partnership and, you know, coordinate even more closely with each other? And so that instead of a Russian and Chinese sphere of influence, we were to see a Eurasian sphere, bringing the two together. Where does India fit into this picture?

I mean, India, in theory, has an obvious sphere of influence, which is in its, the Indian subcontinent, including Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Myanmar, except of course that just ticking off these places tells you what an enormous problems that would be. I mean, imagine how the Pakistanis would feel if they were told that they're going to be part of the India sphere of influence. I mean, they might not be happy with that at all. And of course, if Brazil ever does become a great power, which is, you know, possible. Its obvious sphere of influence is South America, south of the Panama Canal. Except, of course, again, how does Argentina, for example, feel about that?

How do the Andes states, which is Spanish speaking, how would they feel about being dominated by a great power, which has a different language, Portuguese, and a somewhat different culture from them. So, you know, the Americans have the advantage of a natural sphere of influence, but it's not so straightforward between the other great powers. I think Russia and China have a strong relationship, and I think they would work very, very hard not to fracture it. And I think also they have the greater Eurasia project that they're working on together, and which would probably mean that they would be able to hold together and manage any tensions. But I can certainly see that in other places, spheres of influence might not work very well

and might actually lead to a whole set of problems. I wonder if a better way to look at it is, I think this is what we were getting out when we were talking about spheres of influence, is to look at it as the collective West and bricks in a way. Yeah. You know, the United States obviously leading the collective West and bricks being pretty much the rest of the world and the global south. Yes. You know, for example, Mexico can absolutely look towards bricks if it wanted to. Yes. But geographically, okay, it could fall under the collective West sphere as well. But, you know, it would have that bricks. option. You know, you can make the argument for a lot of countries in that type of situation where they could play to both spheres, a Turkey. Turkey is a good example of a NATO country, a country that you could consider to be part

of the collective West sphere, but also a country that could look towards Brickson is looking towards bricks. I mean, what do you think of that? I mean, ultimately, I think that is what's going to happen. We're going to have parallel trading and financial systems. One will be based around the bricks. One will be based around the collective West. Within these wider blocks, there will probably be great powers.

Russia, China, India, within the bricks, the United States, within the collective West. And I suspect they will have their spheres of influence, their core spheres of influence, more clearly defined within these blocks. So, again, with Russia, maybe the territory of the former Soviet Union, with China, you know, who knows? I know, could start drawing lines on the map. So I'm not going to try and do that. But, you know, we could start to see that. But perhaps the way in which economies, societies are organized would be more around these big trading blocks with the spheres of influence being more a political security issue. Yeah. Real quick to end the video, what do you make of the EU's statements about the Black Sea, that they're going to militarize the Black Sea?

And they're going to try to work with, well, they're going to work with. Romania, Bulgaria. They're going to be the tip of the spear and they're going to work with Turkey, Armenia, Georgia, Azerbaijan to try and lock down the Black Sea. We're talking about spheres. The EU is trying to set out their sphere, I guess. Well, they're trying to, what they're again trying to do. I mean, they're trying to revive the whole neocon geopolitical project, which is to drive Russia out of the Black Sea. That was what Project Ukraine initially was all about gaining control of the Black Sea, pushing the Russians out of the Black Sea, and that way isolating the Russians in eastern Eurasia and ultimately

causing them to break down. What this shows is that the EU, the European leaders have learned absolutely nothing from the geopolitical disaster of the last three years. I mean, they've not changed their thinking in any way at all. Now, relying on Turkey, which is the only one of these powers that could significantly challenge Russia in the Black Sea is an incredibly bad idea altogether. It could very easily create a crisis in Turkey. And I don't think the Turks, if they're going to play games in the Black Sea, would do so on Brussels's behalf, just to say.

In all other respects, the Russians dominate the Black Sea. Just as they are, just as in the end, as we will see, they dominate the Caucasus as well. Parasinian, the leader of Armenia, went to Moscow for the victory parade. Even a pro-Western pro-EU leader like him. And I, I, we haven't done programs about Armenia recently. But it seems that within Armenia itself, the pressures now have increased to resume proper business and economic relations with Russia and even security arrangements there. So these are fantasy plans, but they tell us again how obsessively anti-Russian the people in, Brussels remain.

You know, Ushila, Kayakales, what would you expect to them? I'm going to say something else, by the way. All of these plans, fantastic plans. The other thing that they're doing is that they are making the Russians increasingly come round to the view. And on this, by the way, Putin is being openly criticized by members of the Russian government. because Putin still sticks to this position. They're coming around increasingly to the view that the EU is no longer an economic

association in any shape or form. It is a kind of embryonic military political alliance and one which is straightforwardly hostile to Russia. Yeah, Putin continues to maintain a type of soft spot for Europe. I guess, I mean, he even made comments a couple of weeks ago how he He believes that Russia will eventually make up with France. I mean, he continues to have this feeling about Europe, which I think is long, long gone. Absolutely.

And the interesting thing is that on this issue, people like Lavrov, Vedvedev, other foreign ministry officials, have actually openly contradicted him, which in all other respects, they scarcely ever do. But on this issue, they did. They went against him. And you're getting more and more Russian officials who are openly saying, what is this nonsense about the EU being just an economic association? It is a massively hostile antagonistic alliance. And we must treat it that way. All right. We will end the video there.

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