The Duran Podcast - Palace intrigue in Ukraine

Episode Date: January 22, 2024

Palace intrigue in Ukraine

All right, Alexander, let's do an update as to what is going on in Ukraine. And we can start with the situation on the front lines. And then maybe we can shift to talk about, shift over and talk about what is happening in Kiev. A lot of palace intrigue going on in Kiev around Budanov and Zalusini. And even Klitsko is getting in on some of the war. of words that is shaping up in Kiev. A power struggle seems to be forming in Kiev. So we'll start with the front lines and then we'll talk about everything else that is going on. Yes, we should we need to start with the front lines because it's important to say that whatever is

going on in Kiev is directly connected to the events on the front lines. If the situation on the front lines was stable, if it really was a stalemate in the way that, you know, some people in the media want to pretend, then the situation in Kiev would be stable. But it is not stable on the front lines. And in Kiev, it is becoming increasingly tense and chaotic. Now, what has happened is that the Russians are pushing hard everywhere along the front lines. We've discussed this in previous programs. But over the last two, three days, things are starting to happen at an ever-accelerating rate on the front lines. And we're starting to see serious cracks and breakdowns in the Ukrainian defences. And the most important one has happened in Avdavka.

Now, Avdavka, just to remind everyone, it's a small town, about 30,000 people before the war, close to Donets city. It was part of a heavy, very heavily fortified line that Ukraine created between 20, the fighting in 2014 and the start of the special military operation. It was a fortress city. People like Patrick Lancaster have been there. They've described how incredibly dense the fortifications in Avdavka were. and it was until very recently the lynch bin of the entire Ukrainian military position close to Donnett

City. It was the place from which the Ukrainian army would have attacked Domit City had such an attack ever materialized and it's also absolutely key to Ukrainian defences in southern and central Donbass. So it's a very important place and heavily fortified and the Russians began a major attack upon it in October. Now, this is heavily fortified place. Most people thought the fighting would go on for many weeks, many months. The Russians have been gradually tightening their grip around Afdavka, but it didn't seem until a couple of days ago that things were going to take a dramatic turned there and then suddenly they did about two days ago. We suddenly started to get a whole trickle and then a cascade and flood of reports,

all of which now confirm that Ukrainian defences in southern of D'Evka. This is the town itself, not the fortified perimeter around it, but the Ukrainian defences in southern of Degovka have suddenly collapsed. and it seems that the Russians have been able to storm various heavily fortified Ukrainian positions south of Avdeyevka. They broken into Avdyevka itself. So the fighting is now taking place in the southern part of Avdewka. Around a quarter to a third of the town might now have been occupied by the Russians.

I mean, it's difficult to give an exact percentage because different mappers give different readings. And it seems that there's a Russian attack on Uvdivka from multiple directions. And there are reports of Ukrainian soldiers fleeing the battlegrounds and the Russians pushing towards the central part of Avdavka. So this is a shock. It's a couple of days ago we were talking about the collapsing situation in the bridgehead of Krenki, which is on the east bank of the Dnieper River. And apparently we've got more news about that as well.

It seems the Ukrainian troops were still there are now down to about 50. And the situation there is collapsing in the way that we discussed. Avdevka, much bigger place, far bigger battle. we're talking about thousands of men on each side. The Russian force is set to number around 40,000. So that gives us a sense of how much more important it is. But suddenly, a situation where it looks as if Ukrainian forces are starting to break down and that they're not able to plug the holes that are starting to appear in their defense lines.

And to make matters worse for Ukraine, this seems to be happening right across the front lines now. So the Russians have made significant further advances, for example, in the area of Bahmert. They're pushing west of Bahmert towards a town called Chassev Yard, which will then open the way for attacks into northern Dombas. They seem to be well on the way to catching an important village there called Bogdanovka, which is, again, a linchpin to Ukrainian defences in this area. They made further advances further north from Bachmert towards the other important fortified Ukrainian town of Siversk,

and again, once getting reports, that things are starting to break down. And the front lines around Kupiansk, at the very north, are also becoming activated. the Russians have captured another important strategic village in this area. Again, over the last 36 hours, they seem to be pushing west towards the Osgole River. They look like they're preparing to sort of move on to the Osgoe River, cutting off Ukrainian communications to Kupiansk and perhaps isolating that place as well.

And the other thing that's happening is that we've discussed in previous programs how the Ukrainian air defense system seems to be breaking down and we're now seeing Russian aircraft flying right above Ukrainian defense positions. So Avdavka itself, Ukrainian air defenses in Avdavka are being heavily bombed by the Russian air force with Russian ground attack fighters now flying directly above Avdavka. Obviously, they're no longer worried about Ukrainian air defense missiles there. And in Kupians, we're also seeing the Russian Air Force very active, not just jet aircraft, but helicopter gunships, also very active in ways we haven't seen the Russians using in an offensive

way before, actually, to my recollection, at any point in this war since the very beginning, I mean, the Russian Air Force was quite active in February and March of 2022, but then it played a secondary role afterwards. Now it's back and it's hitting the Ukrainians very hard. So suddenly we see a weakening of Ukrainian front lines. And by the way, more reports of very heavy Ukrainian losses as the Russians are pushing so hard. and media zona, this NGO that carries out these, you know, investigations of Russian losses,

continues to show Russian losses as relatively low. So, you know, a sudden shift in the situation on the front lines. Yeah, I think we said in videos, we've done in the past, many videos, that we've done in the past that Avdefka would be the beginning. of the end. The laws of Adefka would signal the beginning of the end. And perhaps the firing of Zillusini, I think we've said this as well in videos that we've made in the past, that this dispute between Zelensky and Zillusini and a possible firing of Zillusini would also signal the beginning of the end of the, the Aletsky regime, and perhaps even Project Ukraine. But there are rumors

that this is about to happen and that this may have already happened, but these are just rumors. So, you know, just understand that they're strong rumors, but that's all that they are at this moment and time. And the man that many believe is being set up to take over command of the entire Ukraine military is none other than Budanov. So the Financial Times, they had a fluff piece on Budanov, introducing the world to the spy chief, who the CIA absolutely loves, it seems. I mean, they work very closely with Budanov, it seems. So what to make of this Financial Times article and Budanov taking over the military? Can I say, I think there are more than rumors.

I would call them reports. There is clearly an intense power struggle going on. And you see all the signs. I mean, the mayor of Kiev, Klichko, who used to be a major figure in the Maidan movement, he's now coming out, he's making even more critical statements about Zelensky. He's saying Zelensky is essentially a dictator. So you can see that he's coming out and saying these things. He clearly doesn't like Zelensky and he's clearly, I think, pushing back against what

it is that Zelensky is doing. And Zelensky, for his part, he's just come back from an absolutely disastrous trip to Davos, by the way. We discussed in a previous program, the debacle of his attempted meeting with the Chinese Prime Minister, Li Tzien. But it seems that the whole delegation, the whole Ukrainian delegation in Davos, was an embarrassment. And again, as always happens now with Zelensky, when he actually meets people, he turns them off, even in Davos, where you'd expect the most, you know, happy reception. So he goes back to Ukraine, he goes back to Kiev. He's starting to give some very weird interviews. He's given an interview in which he said, you know, that without Western aid, Ukraine would only have lasted a few weeks, which is true. But then, of course,

continues to insist that Ukraine must go on fighting to the last man and must go on fighting even if Western aid is withdrawn. And then he's now just issued or signed off on a decree in which he is appearing to lay claim on behalf of Ukraine to something like, I think, a quarter of Western Russia. It's absolutely weird, grandiose things. Now, I think all of that taken together with the Financial Times piece on Budanov does essentially confirm that there is an awful lot of stress going on in Kiev, an awful lot going on there. And we've had these reports, which are coming again from the Ukrainian parliament,

that a decision has been made to sack Zalusini. In fact, not just a decision, that Zalusli has actually been sack. and that Budanav has actually been appointed to his place and that the reason that this has happened is because of the collapsing of Degovka. Now, I want to stress, I don't think it's happened yet. I think this probably this thing is still being worked through. There's clearly a huge amount of infighting going on. Zalusely in the past appears to have resisted attempts to remove him.

He's got support from people in the military. It might not be so easy for Zelensky simply to sack Solutioni and appoint Budanov to take over. But the fact that Budanov has been granted these huge interviews in the financial times, rumors that the Americans are also backing big reshuffles in Kiev, and the fact, which as you correctly said, the CIA seems to love Budanov suggests that the West is now siding with Zelensky and is supporting

Budanov's appointment. So what does this mean? Well, what it means if it actually happens, and you know, it hasn't happened yet, what it means is that Ukraine is now in the early stages of collapse. Because if you have a military crisis on your front lines, if you have your air defense has been pummeled into non-existence. And there are rumors again, by the way, this morning of a major Russian missile strike about to happen. Well, the very last person you want to put in charge of your armed forces is a man like Goudanav, who has no command experience at all. He has never commanded a unit in battle.

He's never, you know, been a strategist, the tactician. He's not a member of the general staff. He's not any of these things. He does not have that kind of military background. He is a special forces soldier who has then participated in covert operations, some of them in Russia, many of them going on long before the current phase of the fighting began, but he has no command experience. He's absolutely not the person to take Zalusinis place. So why is he being appointed to this role? It seems to me there are

potentially two reasons. One reason, which I've discussed on my programs, is because clearly Zelensky and the political leaders in Kiev no longer trust the military. They no longer trust Zillusioning. Well, that's obvious, but they don't trust the other generals. They're nervous about appointing another general, real general, in Zaluzni's place. They want somebody they can completely rely upon, an ideological fanatic, if you like, because by all accounts that's to a great extent what Wadana is. And an ideological fanatic who is not only loyal and reliable and determined to keep project Ukraine going, but who, who, who, who, who also has, you know, a kind of security agency behind him, the military intelligence,

an agency that has shown itself willing to carry out all kinds of operations, murders, assassinations, you know, that kind of thing, within Russia itself. So somebody who can keep the military in check, spy on them, take action against them, if they're a potential threat, that kind of thing. But there is perhaps something else, which is we had a briefing by Jake Sullivan and Avril Haynes, the Director of National Intelligence in Washington, saying that without USAID, Ukraine could collapse within weeks or months. And this is apparently based upon the dynamics of the battlefields. what's happening on the actual battlefronts,

exactly what we talked about. In other words, the US government acknowledges that there is no actual stalemate going on. So it could be that they are coming round to an understanding that the conventional military part of the war is about to end. and end in defeat.

So it could be that they're now thinking, what do we do when that happens? We can't just give up on project Ukraine. Well, we need somebody to try and organize or ferment some kind of insurgency in Ukraine itself, Russian-occupied Ukraine, and the man to do that is Budanov. He's the specialist on covert operations.

He's the man who carries out. assassinations, bombings, and that kind of thing. So that's why we put him in charge. We're no longer thinking about a conventional victory in the war. We're looking for someone to do it in that alternative kind of way. And if you think of it in those terms, then Budana's appointment makes a kind of sense. Yeah, I received an email from a a viewer who said the same exact thing that you said. If you look at it from the point of view where the conventional war is is wrapping up and the collective West, they understand that it's wrapping up and they're going to shift to an insurgency guerrilla terror war operation. Then Budanov is the guy

you go to. And there was a New York Times article that came out, I want to say two months ago over the summer, which actually detailed how the CIA has been working with the Intel agency, specifically the military intel agency, how it revamped the whole thing, restructured it, and Budanov has played a prominent role in that restructuring and that integration of the military Intel services of Ukraine and the CIA, how they have now really forged a close relationship. So it does make sense if you look at it through the lens of conventional war done, it's illusionie gone. Now we have to start planning for some type of insurgency guerrilla terror war that is going to,

they hope, I imagine they hope this is going to last for many, many years. Exactly. And you see, this starts to make possibly, I mean, we're being a bit speculative, but I mean, possibly make some sense of Zelensky's latest, because, you know, he's claiming these huge territories in Russia. He's saying, you know, that, you know, the, you know, the, we wouldn't have been able to keep going without the West for more than a few weeks. That might be in a way of saying, you know, that the actual conventional war is ending.

Zelensky and his people leave Kiev, established themselves, maybe in Western Ukraine or even in the West. And Budanov, they continue to be recognized by the West as the legitimate government of Ukraine. And in the meantime, they have Budanov there. He's not a ground forces commander because he's not able to lead men in battle. And that's not what he does.

So they keep him on and they try and maintain his networks in Ukraine itself and in Russia, which is perhaps where Zelensky's decree laid claim to all these Russian territories comes in. So we start to see preparations for that kind of insurgency war, not just in Ukraine, but in, if you like, pre-2014 Western Russia as well. However, all the puff pieces, the puff piece in the Financial Times, Budanov interviewed in a darkened room. I mean, it's very weird, you know, telling us about, you know, he's heroic achievements, the fact that he's got cult status amongst Ukrainians.

That, by the way, is highly debatable, in my opinion. What the Financial Times didn't say, by the way, is that he is a terrible intelligence officer. He might be very skilled at covert operations, you know, the smoke and cloak and dagger things, you know, planting bombs, sending assassins, killing people, that kind of thing. But if you're talking about gathering and analyzing intelligence, Ukrainian military intelligence is, I'm going to say it straightforwardly, it's crap. I mean, it's absolutely awful.

And you've got an example of that in that Financial Times article. He's still going on about how Russia is about to run out of equipment and men and all that kind of thing. And he also goes on to say that Putin himself is ill. He suffers from cancer, that all the people you see on television are not really Putin at all. They are Putin clones. All that kind of thing. I mean, Badanov has no skill as an intelligence officer. He doesn't understand or know Russia very well.

I get the sense he's not even interested in finding out the true facts about Russia. See, he doesn't do. I remember it's called, you know, you militant the intelligence department of the Ukrainian general staff or whatever it is. He's not carrying out that function. What he is really only interested in is, as I said, all these covert operations. And of course, that, however, still makes him ideally suited with a kind of insurgency war that the CIA and the Biden administration and the other members of the deep state and perhaps the Europeans are now planning to launch in Ukraine when the military collapse comes, which as I said, of course, according to Sullivan and Haymes might happen in the next few weeks or months. Yeah, of course, everything can change if they approve the $61 billion or they steal the $300 billion.

I mean, all of this can change and maybe Zillusione stays on and they continue to fight the conventional war for the next year. So, I mean, this could all change. But I imagine a final question is that I imagine that they don't really care about good military intelligence. It's the collective West, they prefer an ideologue crazy like Budanov. I mean, this is what they prefer because at the end of the day, what this conflict was always about and what it will remain to be about is creating chaos in Russia so that you can somehow remove Putin. And for them, if they can have a Budanov who will carry out whatever. activities he he needs to carry out in order to, in their minds, in their minds, in order to

destabilize the Putin administration, then I think that's what they're fine with that. That's what they prefer. I don't think they really want to engage in professional military intel or even get to the truth of how many weapons Russia has or what Putin's health is. They just want chaos in Russia on the hopes that. the Putin government crumbles. I mean, we're back to square one. Yeah, you are of course absolutely right. And we're going to get all these kind of things. I mean, there's been a explosion at a, you know, a gas terminal in St. Petersburg. And some people think that's Boudan's organization

had something to do with that. It might have done. I mean, you know, we are going to be exactly, as you said, right back to all that kind of thing. a number of points to make, though. Firstly, we've been there. It's already been tried and it failed. I mean, the Chechen insurgency, which then morphed into the jihadi insurgency, tried to do exactly that thing right across Russia in the 1990s and the 2000s. And the Russians eventually did succeed in getting on top of it. And the fact that the Chetian people were enlisted in this enterprise, actually all they did in the end was turn them against the West.

So, you know, it's something that's already been attempted and it has already failed. Now, the other thing is, I do wonder, I really do wonder, whether people in Ukraine would really be willing to clamber, on to this enterprise. I say that because I get the sense that there is now growing war weariness in Ukraine, that people really want to see an end, they want to get back to living their normal lives, and in fact, I'm sure you've seen it. There's been this really rather distressing tweet by a visitor to Ukraine. She's been around the country. She says the situation is utterly bleak, People are in despair.

They're becoming increasingly angry with Zelensky because he's led them into this disaster. And they're becoming increasingly angry with the West as well. And I would have thought trying to sustain an insurgency operation in the face of all of that. It is like it's swimming against the tide, if you will. So, yes, I think that, you know, if we do see a military collapse, Badanov does have his operatives in Russia, clearly.

He clearly has some operatives, lots of operatives in Ukraine itself. There's the Azov people and people like that still there. Some of them, no doubt, will go to ground and they'll start carrying out those kind of operations. but is it in the end sustainable over time? I wonder. And of course, for Europe, this is a disastrous idea because sustaining insurgency operations like the kind we're talking about,

you know, requires base camps and training camps. You're going to have armed men across Europe getting trained to, you know, engage in all of these things. things. All sorts of strange and difficult people will no doubt be attracted to this kind of thing. The Russians will take countermeasures. It's so easy to see how this could spread instability. You know, you're aiming to achieve instability in Russia. You can very easily spread instability into Europe instead.

But there we go. They're not prepared to give up on this enterprise. Regime change in Moscow, breaking up Russia, because again, this is what Zelensky is now talking about. These objectives never shift. They're going to continue with it until, well, I don't know what has to happen before there is a final acknowledgement that it will fail. Yeah, well, you know, these people that are that are going along with this idea of some sort of insurgency, if this is indeed the case, well, you know, they're never going to be able to rest. They're never going to find any rest because, you know, the Russians are not going to stop going after them either. So, I mean, it works both ways.

Absolutely. Yeah. And I question also the popularity of Budanov. I mean, I think Solutioni is a much more popular. Well, absolutely. A person in Ukraine than Budanov is. I mean, well, absolutely. I mean, you know, cult status and all of that.

I mean, this is what the financial... Building a narrative. I mean, it's exactly what it is. It is building a narrative around him, which I really do question whether most Ukrainians or even many Ukrainians actually share. I think increasing numbers of Ukrainians, on the contrary, are becoming utterly fed up with a way in which their country has been used in this way. And as I said, that tweet spoke about, you know, huge numbers of people killed and wounded

and how families are grieving their sons and fathers and brothers. Does it really feel sympathetic to someone like Budanaf? I doubt it. Because, allegedly, an open general, I have, you know, questions about how really competent he is, but one can imagine that he would be someone that in a military crisis, people might look up to. But Donov, to be frank, hardly so I would have thought. All right, we will end it there. The durand. Dot locals.com. We are on Rumble Odyssey, bitch, shoot, telegram, rock fin, and Twitter X, and go to the Duran Shop. 15% all t-shirts, all t-shirts. Take care.