The Duran Podcast - Partitioning Syria. HTS is a shadow

Episode Date: December 14, 2024

Partitioning Syria. HTS is a shadow

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the situation in Syria. We have Israel taking a lot of land in Syria. There were reports that they were 20, or they are, they were 20 kilometers from Damascus. The IDF refutes these reports. They say that they're not moving in on Damascus. They say they're creating a security zone or something like that. We have Turkey taking much of the north part of Syria. And of course, as expected, Erdogan is focusing in on the Kurdish forces in Syria, which are backed by the United States.

Of course, you have HTS is also starting their interim government. And they've got an interim prime minister. But HTS Al Jalani, he has stated that he's not going to go. to war, fight the Israelis, or fight, obviously, or deal with anything that's happening in Aleppo, and Lib and Mambige, where the fighting is taking place between the Turkish-backed Syria forces and the U.S. and the U.S.-backed Kurdish forces. Turkey fighting with the Kurds. Let's just put it simply in that part of Syria. And, of course, you have Blinken. He is on his way to Ankara, probably at the time when this video is published, Blinken would have already

met with the Turkish foreign minister, maybe even Erdogan in Ankara. And the reports are that Blinken is going to Ankara in order to deal with the possible conflict intention and fighting between the Turks and the US-backed Kurds. How do you see things in Syria, Alexander? Well, let's first of all begin with it. It's not a mess. It's a collapse. I mean, The whole country is completely disintegrating. There is no administration. There is no police force, apparently. The bureaucracy has ceased to function.

There were claims that the central bank was still functioning, but apparently it isn't any longer. So, I mean, everything is stopped and has fallen apart. And of course, Jolani is saying that HTS isn't going to fight the Israelis or the Americans or the Turks. The reason they are not going to fight anybody is that putting aside the fact that they are controlled by these people, they're funded by these people,

it's become pretty obvious to me over the last couple of days that HTS is a shatter. I mean, there are some fighters, but this is not an army that is in any, condition to fight anybody. They're certainly not in a position to fight the Israelis. They're not in a position to fight the Russians. We have convoys of Russian troops moving from across Syria to the Russian bases in Latakia, in Khmerim and Tartis. And HES, HTS is there, and they're just driving past. and this was never a war.

It was not a military campaign. There was a small cedar of Turkish trained fighters, which I think we both heard, were basically run by Turkish intelligence, with Turkish special forces. But there was no big jihad the army fighting the Syrian army. Nothing like that happened. There was no real fighting at all. HTS has no real organization, no real military force to back it. It's basically a fiction.

And what you see right across Syria is a progressive collapse of state institutions, of the economy, of the way in which any country functions, you see the prisons being opened. And yes, I've no doubt there are political prisons. in many of these prisons. And yes, no doubt some of those prisoners were very badly mistreated by the Syrian government. We never, by the way, on the Duran claimed otherwise. But there are going to be most of the people in those prisons will probably be people who would be sent to prison in any country because they're probably violent people who've done all sorts of criminal things, who are not political figures, in other words. And now they've all been

released, all of them, no attempt to filter and find out who is in prison for doing what, and that will add to the sense of chaos. And the country's being looted and everything is being broken down. And we see that the four powers that have armed presence in Syria appear to be digging in and are partitioning the country between each other. So the Americans, are still there in eastern Syria, trying to protect their Kurdish proxies. I understand the Turkish army is physically present now in Aleppo city. And I mean, actual regular units of the Turkish army, not HTS or militia or anything of that kind. And they're also, as you correctly say, fighting the Kurds and pushing them out of Manbidj,

and the Americans have agreed that the Kurds must leave Mambidge. With every iteration of this crisis, by the way, the area where the Kurdish people in Syria used to live is being reduced. It's actually shrinking because Erdogan is determined ultimately to crush the Kurds and they're being pushed out. of significant areas of Syria, and Mambidge is just another one. Israel is establishing what it calls its security zone, which means the entire Golan Heights and some areas further inside Syria itself. Again, they're meeting no resistance. Netanyahu says that the Israelis are in the Golan Heights to stay.

I expect that at some point in the next few months, year maybe, Israel will announce the formal annexation of the entire Golan Heights. And the Russians still have their bases. And there is an enigma about this because it seems that instead of withdrawing from the bases, the Russians are reinforcing them. Now, I still myself believe that the Russians deep down are saying to themselves that these bases are untouches are untrue. cannibal, and they will probably, after they've done their own deal with Erdogan, they will probably decide to go. But for the moment, at least, they're digging in, they're sending more of their people to Syria.

And again, HTS is not interfering with them because he can't. So you have a carve-up of Syria. The country itself is collapsing. And across most of Syria, no one is. in control, the only places where there is control is where the foreign army is on. It's a tragic picture and it's the partitioning of what used to be a proud country. What is Blinken trying to accomplish in his meeting with Turkish officials in Ankara? I mean, does he want to keep the US in Syria as well as keep the backing?

of the Kurds going? Is he going to try and push for, I mean, he can't push for a Kurdish state or anything like that because that would be crossing Erdogan's reddest of red lines. So, I mean, I'm just trying to figure out what is Blinken actually trying to accomplish, can Blinken accomplish anything? Well, he's failed to just about everything he's done, but anyway. Well, indeed. And that's a very good question because, you know, there's what Plinkin can actually accomplish and what he is competent to do because he's not a competent man. He's consistently misread the situation, every situation that he's been involved in. And whether any way the Turks are going to take him especially seriously,

given that in 40 days they'll be dealing with Marco Rubio instead. So they might be saying to themselves as well, you know, we can spin. it out with Blinken, because frankly, whenever we agree with Blinken, we can no guarantee the Trump and Rubio and the new team are going to pay any attention. But logically, if we take a logical view, I think that in this situation where Syria has been divided up, partitioned in effect. What Blinken ought to be trying to do, I mean, it's terribly cynical and I'm not, don't want to give the impression I agree with this or approve this at all. But what Blinken ought to be trying to do is to agree with the Turks spheres of influence. So, no, this is our sphere of

influence in eastern Syria. This is the place where our people will be. Obviously, we all agree that Syria should remain united and territorially whole, but this is our sphere of influence. This is yours and ought to be trying to negotiate with the Turks, the drawing of boundaries. I expect there's going to be an awful lot of boilerplate stuff coming out of this meeting about setting up an inclusive dialogue, supporting the new transitional government, wishing the best for the people of Syria, and all of that kind of thing. But logically, as I said, the main purpose is to agree, ought to be, in theory, the setting up spheres of influence. And by the way, I mean, I've also received this information that the Americans are trying to buy

ex-Syrian military material in Syria, Syrian army material in Syria, tanks, armored vehicles, shells, that kind of thing, in order to send them to Ukraine. Of course. Of course. And I am sure that some of that is also going on. and on the sidelines, there'll be some discussions with the Turks about that too. So those are the things that Blinken ought to be doing. As I said, whether the Turks are going to take him seriously is another question.

But do the Turks tell Blinken, look, you want these weapons to go to Ukraine? We know that you're completely obsessed with Project Ukraine. well, we'll get these weapons. We'll help get these weapons to Ukraine. Fine, but the Kurds have to go. Yeah, exactly. Even spheres of influence still doesn't resolve the Kurdish issue which the Turks have.

Absolutely. For Erdogan, he has said many times, it's existential for Turkey. He said it. Absolutely. That is his red line. The great danger is if you go along to Erdogan and you say, well, you know, I will

discuss spheres of influence, but I also want to discuss arms deliveries from the Syrian army stocks to Ukraine, and can you help me with that? Then what you're doing is you're giving Erdogan leverage for you. And there's nothing that Erdogan likes better than to be handed leverage. So it's probably not a good idea to make too big a play of it at this particular time. My own personal view is that this is going to be an ephemeral negotiation. I don't think the, I don't think the Turks are much respect for Blinken. Nobody does. I do think they see him as a strong negotiator. Nobody does. And I think that, as I said, we're going to hear all kinds of, you know, declarations and rhetoric about the glorious future that awaits the Syrian people and how the United States

is going to stand by them as they work towards that future. and the support they will give to the government there and all that. But despite talk about spheres of influence and all of this, which I think is probably what the Pentagon wants him to discuss, I don't think there will be any hard and fast agreements reached because this is a massively complicated issue, as you correctly say. And I don't think that Blinken is the kind of person who is in a position to conduct a negotiation like that. He's going to make things worse.

He's going to make things worse. Even if he had the time to, which he doesn't. Exactly. I mean, the other thing that's going to happen. The other thing is going to just want to say that the other thing is happening is that it's becoming increasingly clear to me that Erdogan and the Turks, for the moment at least, want the Russians to stay. They want them to stay in the bases in Eastern Syria. And the reason they want them to stay is because they think, probably rightly, that that gives them leverage over the Americans.

So there's all these intricate games that are being played out. And it's purely now a game between the great powers. Syria itself as a nation, as a state, not a nation, as a state has ceased to exist. Yeah, Erdogan loves these games. Yeah. Just a final question. What happens to Damascus? Well, that is, of course, where HTS is going to form its government.

It's not going to have any real control. It cannot do. I think that Damascus, the oldest inhabited city in the world, the country that has been the capital of a capital, longer than any other city in human history, I mean, its fate is going to be dark. You know, it's probably going to become a no man's land. Eventually, perhaps, we're going to have some kind of shadow government set up there, but it's going to go the way of Mogadishu and places like that.

Libya, yeah. Libya, exactly. Benghazi, all of these sort of places, run by warlords and that kind of thing. I mean, it's an utterly tragic situation, and the museums there are going to be looted, and the architecture is going to be destroyed, and the archaeological sites nearby, like the mirror are going to be ransacked. I mean, this whole thing is, I mean, if one spends time dwelling on it, it does make you want to cry. All right.

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