The Duran Podcast - Poland elections, Nawrocki wins. Is he an Orban or a Meloni?

Episode Date: June 4, 2025

Poland elections, Nawrocki wins. Is he an Orban or a Meloni?

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the elections in Poland. A bit of a surprise, I would say. It was a close race. But in the end, it looks like the candidate that's backed by law and justice, Navraski, I'm probably pronouncing that wrong. But he was the, I guess you could say the anti-globalists, if you want to call him that out. I don't want to say anti-EU, anti-NATO because I don't think that's what he is, given that law and justice is backing him. But he was not the Uber pro Donald Tusk candidate.

So he's kind of the anti, I would say the anti-Donald Tusk candidate ended up winning the election. And what you're going to have in Poland is someone who is following Duda. I mean, Duda was against the opposition to Tusc. And he was president and now it looks like you have someone who once again is going to be backed by law and justice who will be president in Poland. He said some things about Ukraine. He said some things about supporting Ukraine and NATO expansion. Perhaps he's a little more aligned with Orban. But maybe not.

Time will tell anyway. Your thoughts on the elections. It was a big turnout, by the way. Yeah, it was a very big turnout. About 72 percent turnout. Yeah. I think it is important not to minimize this election, actually, and it's importance. Now, I absolutely agree with what he's likely to happen.

I mean, this new president is ultimately going to toe the line on NATO, you and everything else, with a few more issues. I mean, it's going to be similar to Duda, the president who just had, who seemed to be quite nationalist and was obviously aligned with law and justice. But law and justice itself, it carried out many changes, certain changes in Poland, which Ursula and the people in the EU Commission didn't like. But law and justice was never going to take Poland out of the EU or do anything like that, for example. I mean, that wasn't what they were about at all. And though their relationship, which people tend to forget with Zelensky and Ukraine completely broke down in the last months.

when they were still in government. I mean, ultimately, they were fully aligned with the NATO-EU center on Ukraine and all of the rest. Now, what I will say about this man, who's just one, Novotsky, again, I'm probably getting his name wrong. He actually, if you look at his rhetoric, he is much tougher on all of these issues than law and justice. up to now has been. He is outright ruled out Ukraine's membership in NATO, for example. He's also very opposed to Polish troops being sent to Ukraine. Everybody in Poland is, all the political parties are. And that tells you that that is the overwhelming sentiment, by the way, of the Polish people. But this person was very, very thoughtful, right about this.

He's been very, very forthright about the unacceptable of Banderaism and the necessity for Ukraine to come to terms with the Volunt massacre and the many issues between Ukraine and Poland that are connected with Bandera and his movement. So he's been very, very forthright and strong on these issues. Always, I'm stressing rhetorically. So when given a choice between a candidate who was backed by Tusk, who completely supports the policies of the EU centre and of NATO, which of course is what Tusk does, and which supports Tusk's policies generally, which are very European integrationist, what did the polls do, what did a plushk's policies generally, which are very European integrationist, what did the polls do? what did a plurality of people, well, majority of people who voted in this election do? They voted for somebody who takes exactly the opposite positions. They also voted for somebody who stands for strongly conservative positions on social questions, on lifestyle issues, whereas, of course, the other candidate, the one backed by Tusk,

is much more friendly to the EU line on all. all of these things. I'm, of course, choosing my words very, very carefully here. So, again, I don't think any of this should be underestimated. It shows what deeper sentiments within Poland actually are. And coming back to what you said at the beginning of the program about this being unexpected. You're absolutely right about this. Given that Tusk is the prime minister, given that he's backed by the EU centre, given that the media complex in Poland backs Tusk, given everything, you would expect the candidate that Tusk supports to win and win convincingly. So the fact that he didn't do so strongly suggests to me that there is actually not just a majority

opinion against all of this in Poland, but probably a strong majority opinion against all of these things in Poland, that the Poles, not for the first time, it's very much part of their history, we're able to stand against the current, if you like, and stand firm against the current and say, you know, this isn't what we're about. This is not what Poland is about at all, and we are going to say an absolute and clear no. And one other effect of this election, which should not be underestimated, is that Tusk comes out of it very reduced.

He's no longer the dominant figure in Poland that he appeared to be. And given that there must now be a strong probability that law and justice are coming back, Tusk is not going to have the influence in NATO or at the EU center that he has had over the last two years. The globalists, the EU, they don't seem to be too bothered with this election defeat, that Donald Tusk's guy being defeated, very different than the scenario with Joryescu and Romania. very different. I mean, Yoriyosku really freaked them out. Navraski doesn't seem to freak them out so much. I'm not saying they're happy about the results.

No. They're probably angry, furious about the results, but they don't seem to be bothered to the point where they say, okay, we have to cook up some sort of tick-top meddling by Russia or China in order to overturn these elections in order to have a do-over. Why do you think that is? Well, I think there's a number of reasons for this. Firstly, because Turskista, there. I mean, the new, the president in Poland doesn't have some of the power that the president in Romania does. I also believe, going back to what you said, that this man who's just been elected is a Maloney. He is not an Orban. I think that's, I think that's the, the first thing to say about him. So I think that they're not alarmed about him in that way.

I mean, he's not a Yorgiascu. I mean, I think that's something that should be clearly said. And he's not making as strong, taking a strong, clear-cut positions on all sorts of things as Yorgiascu did. So I think that they say to themselves, he's still got to Tusk, he's still there for some more years. This person could be a nuisance. He can slow down the reconstruction of Poland in the EU direction. which is what Tusk was all about. He's able to veto laws and all that kind of thing. But ultimately we can live with this because at the moment we still got Tusk and he's still the

prime minister and he's still in charge and he's the person that we need to keep there. When the election comes, when the parliamentary election comes in Poland, then of course things might change. And then if it does really look as if law and justice are set to come back into power, then we might start to see the stops being pulled. But at the moment, I think they could just about live with this one. Because for one thing, as I said, as you rightly said, I don't think they think that this person is as strong and as decisive a figure as Gorgiaska would have been, or that he has captured the mood in Polish society in the way that, you know, you know, your guest who did in Romania. There is something else, which is that, of course, Poland is a bigger

country than Romania. It's more powerful and it's more central to the way the collective West functions. And I think there probably was a concern that if they backed Tusk too openly in Poland, given how contrarian the Polish people are, how prickly they are, about defending their independence, it might have provoked an even stronger reaction. And I think that perhaps

might have caused them to tread a little more carefully. And I would not be surprised if Tursk actually told them to. Right. The litmus test. I think you've defied it very well for the globalist for the European Union. They'll accept a Maloney.

They may not like it, but they'll go with it as long as it's not an Orban. Exactly. That's the test. Exactly. Exactly. There was a time a couple of years ago, three, four, five years ago, when law and justice in Poland and Orban had created a Polish-Hungarian combination. And that really didn't, that really did frighten them a lot.

They didn't like that in any way. And there was a major attack on the law and justice government at that time. And an ultimately successful attempt to destabilize it. And of course, the start of the conflict in Ukraine then came. And Poland and Hungary took different sides. And that whole combination split. So that isolated Orban. but their worst nightmare is that it might be recreated in some way at some point.

And it is not impossible. Poland and Hungary historically have always been on friendly terms. I mean, I'm talking about recent history. I'm talking about throughout their history. They're both socially conservative, Catholic countries. So there is a certain commonality there and a certain, you know, identity, if you like, a shared identity and a shared culture. So it's not impossible that it could come back.

But for the moment, that doesn't seem very likely. And for that reason, they're not too bothered. Yeah, it depends on Nabroski's stance on the Banderites, I believe, because Duda was very relaxed on the Banderites in Newcast. He was very accepting, which I would always wonder why. How is this even possible to accept this ideology and to go along with this ideology? But he was. Duda was.

It'll be interesting to see if Navrowski really does follow through on what he has said about the ideology and the Banderites. Navroth, he's been taking a much harder line about it than Duda did. But again, I will wait and see. I mean, I'm skeptical that he will, to be honest. I think more likely than not he will ultimately tell the line as most of them end up doing. So I think it takes an Orban or a Fizzo to really hold out against this. And I don't think Novoltsky is that kind of person at all, actually. Not you said at best.

He's a Maloney, no, Orban. Orban, or at least that's how it looks. But we'll see. Maybe he turns out to be an Orban. Yeah. We'll see. All right, we'll end it there. The durand.locos.com.

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