The Duran Podcast - Political crisis in Kiev

Episode Date: February 2, 2024

Political crisis in Kiev

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the palace intrigue in Kiev. Zelenskyy trying to fire Zillusionee, then trying to get Zillusioni to resign and offering Zilluzni a different post in his administration. None of that working. And he has to call in Victoria Newland. It seems like he called it Victoria Nuland because Zelensky looks really weak, very, very weak for the president, the overall commander, everything to issue an order to fire somebody and that person getting fired is like, no,

I'm not leaving. So what an incredible turn of events. And then we have Newland in Kiev. And it looks like she's sorted everything out or she's trying to sort things out. Obviously, she's freaked out because this is playing very bad in the United States. I mean, I can imagine Congress members like like. Mac Gets and MTG and Senator Jady Vance and Rand Paul, they're probably reading these stories, just shaking their heads going, you want us to give $61 billion to what's going on in this circus.

I mean, this is playing out really bad. But she also had to go there to figure this out because the armed forces commander and the president are about to go after each other. So what do you make of everything that's happening in Kiev? have what do you make of Victoria's decision, Victoria Newland's decision, which is, it looks like she's going with Zelensky. And some interesting comments from Budanov, who's also an actor in all of this, specifically to the telegraph where he gave an interesting interview. And the economist as well. He also said he's not interested in the job of commander. So what do you think of this

palisian tree going on in Kiev? I mean, the first thing to say is that we now have final definite conclusive, visible, public proof that this palace intrigue, this plotting that we have been talking about for many months on the Duran, and which, you know, many people were denying what's happening. Well, we now got absolute public, incontrovertible proof that it is indeed happening. Zelensky and Zalusely are not on speaking terms. They obviously loathe each other. Zelensky's been trying to sack Zillusioning for months. Apparently, the final decision was made to do so sometime at the end of the last week. He met Zeluzni on Monday, told Zalusini, I want you to resign.

Zalusini said flatly, no. Now, this is, you know, the commander-in-chief, Zelensky, talking to a subordinate general, telling that general, I don't have any trust or confidence in you. And the general, in an act of completed subordination, knowing that, but his commander-in-chief no longer trusts him, says, snarkily, I am not going anywhere. I'm staying in post. If you want to sack me, then just go ahead and try. So, of course, then Zelensky says, look, I am going to sack you.

And what he finds is that he can't get anybody to take Zaluzni's job. But Danov, who'd been obviously earmarked to take over the job. At the last moment, he had cold feet. and apparently the other person they sort of approached who was Siersky, the ground forces commander, who is known not to like Zalusini. He refused also. So a situation of total impasse, and as you absolutely rightly say, a crisis for Zelensky, because what kind of a president, what kind of a commander-in-chief is it, who's lost confidence in his most senior general, but can't sack him.

So this is the kind of situation where a president who finds himself like that, who has completely lost power, it becomes only a question of time then before he has to step down. Because if he can't control the military in a war, what does he control? So a massive political crisis, potential political crisis in Kiev, you got the sense over the last couple of hours that, you know, the vultures were circling.

Oroshenkov, the former president, who clearly resents the fact that Zelensky took over from him and who is a born intriguer and who's been plotting against Zelensky, relentlessly for years. anyway, judging from the statements that various people connected to Poroshenko have been making, Poroshenko was waiting to make his move. And as you absolutely rightly say, Zelensky hanging by a thread, Victoria Newland sees all of this and she's the real overall ruler of Ukraine. I mean, I think it's just become absolutely clear now that she's the person who really makes the decisions. She sees all this from a distance. She sees all this from Washington.

She's obviously been consulted by Zelensky in advance and has given the green light for the sacking of Zillusioning. So she sees how this is all playing out in Kiev. She rushes off to Kiev, probably, as he rightly said, is Zelensky's invitation. And she tells everybody, look, the United States, which I speak for, you know, Victoria Nuland speaks for the United States.

not the president or the secretary of state or the national security advisor or the president himself or the vice president god help us wherever she is anyway victoria newland i speak with the united states we are supporting zelensky and the result is that the crisis is sort of brought under control and there are reports today that the formal announcement of Zillusioni's dismissal will be made tomorrow. And the clearest sign that Luland has indeed sorted out the situation is the fact that Mikhail Podalliak, who is one of Zolensky's advisors, has now given an interview.

He said, you know, why is everybody stressing about Zalusni? I mean, you know, he's only the overall military chief. Sacking him is no big deal. So, I mean, that is clearly a sign that they are indeed going to sack him. And I'm not sure who's going to take his place. We'll probably, presumably know tomorrow. But again, I guess that Newland has been talking to the various interested people. And I strongly suspect, I don't know this for a fact,

but I'm guessing it will probably be Budanaf after all, despite the fact that he got cold feet earlier this week. And we will probably see we're done in post. He's giving all these optimistic interviews. He's saying, you know, all is well, you know, the Russian offensive will Peter out in the spring. We're going to go back on the counteroffensive in the late spring and early summer. And, you know, the initiative will come back to us.

And Newland comes out and says, you know, we've got big. surprise, waiting for Putin. He's going to be really shocked by what's coming. So all, you know, all this frantic spinning, all sorts of news, supposedly from the battlefronts about how things are suddenly turning out well. You know, they've recaptured some place in Abdefka. They've landed more troops in Khrinki. They've delivered new missiles to Ukraine, missiles which were promised a year ago, and which most reports suggested had already been delivered some time ago. they're saying all of this major speeding effort underway in order to prepare the ground, to prepare the Ukrainian people for the announcement tomorrow that Zillusioni is gone.

My thinking on this is that the person that they place to take over for Zillusioni will give us insight as to how the war is going to be. run in 2024. What do I mean by that? If it's Budanov, then you can be certain that they're shifting to some sort of insurgency war because Thadanoff is not someone who's capable of commanding respect from the troops or running a military operation of this size. I mean, that's obvious. He's not trained. He's not educated. This is not what he does. So obviously, if it's Budanoff, that must mean that the decision has been taken, that this has to shift over to some sort of an insurgency type of conflict, whatever, that may mean all the things that that entails.

But if they appoint Siersky, who many people are saying, that's the other person that they're thinking about to replace Solutioni, then it would mean that they are going to continue year, 2004, in much the same way that they have been going about this conflict in 2022, which is a conventional war because Sivsky is a military commander and he will be able to command the forces in Ukraine. What are your thoughts on that observation? You're absolutely right. I'm sure one of the essential reason why Badan have said, I don't want the job, is because he knows he's completely, completely unfit to hold it. I mean, he's never commanded so much as a platoon. He's never,

this is not being the kind of thing he does. He's a special forces soldier who has got involved in what is called intelligence, but which is really covert operations. I mean, this isn't his style. I mean, it's completely not the kind of war, you know, the ground war that we're seeing being fought in Ukraine now, that he knows how to fight. So you're absolutely correct. If they do put the Donov in place, he will have two jobs. One is to keep to spy on the generals, because clearly they're not trusted. And secondly, to prepare for the insurgency when Ukraine collapses.

By contrast, Sirik is the exact diametric opposite. He's a military commander. He has commanded troops from the battleground. He's more experienced, by the way, than Zalov. He's an older man. Unlike Zalusini, he trained in the Soviet army. He went through the Soviet military system. So he's more experienced.

He's actually senior in the pre-war hierarchy to Zalusni. So you put Sirsky in charge, and that means that you are still planning a conventional war. Now, Circeki, it must be said, has failed in every single military operation up to now that he's undertaken. But nonetheless, if you do want a conventional war, he's a more logical figure than Zillusin. And the fact that Zerzegi and Sirsky don't get on probably will make it easier for Sir Siersky to take over. Though why Sirsky would want to take over, given the state of the situation on the battlefront is another matter. Doesn't the amount of money that they're trying to get to Project Ukraine also dictate what type of war they're going to fight in 2024 and who they're going to put in charge of the military? I imagine, once again, if they can't get the $61 billion and the $50 billion from the EU and steal the $300 billion, then I can imagine that they're going to say, okay, we have to fall back into some sort of an insurgency type of operation.

But if they do get all this money, then I would imagine they're more comfortable in saying, okay, we can now purchase weapons and continue to fight the Russians, at least for 2024, in much the same way that we fought them in 2023. Well, this is exactly right. But, I mean, I think that the general view now is that they won't be able to get the capital of the Russian frozen assets. They're only going to get the interests, which is nowhere near enough. the funding from the US

really does look for the moment to be completely gumbed up and perhaps at some point the funding will come but already even if it was authorised today it would not really make a difference on the battlefronts

for many months still so probably they're not expecting very much off from that and the Europeans by the way have already scaled down their level of military support to Ukraine. They've now, I think, reduced the amount that they were going to give to Ukraine from 20 billion over four years to just five billion in one year with no promise that the remaining 15 billion in weapons will ever come. And this is, of course, because it's now become clear that Europe is struggling to

come up with weapons. So the funding doesn't seem to be in place. So it might be tilting towards a more insurgency type approach. But I also think that at some level, they're now saying to themselves, well, Ukraine isn't really going to be in a position to carry out big, grandiose offensives. It needs to go to the defense. So, you know, if we're going to be fighting on the defense,

maybe we don't need some great master strategists to run. defense, in which case, but Donov might be the man, and he can also prepare the ground for the insurgency when the Russians to finally win and take over, which we hope won't be this year. That might be the thing. Yeah, I've got a final question for you. If, by the time this video goes up, maybe we'll know who's in charge. Maybe we want, I don't know. But it would be interesting, or maybe even.

even a mistake for them to place Budanov as the overall commander because, well, for two reasons that I can think of. And I mean a mistake for for the United States and for Zelensky. Number one is Budanov is someone that he would probably have to fear a lot more than Sirsky as far as being actually in charge of all of Ukraine. You know, Sirsky is probably someone who isn't interested in running all of Ukraine. Wudanoff is someone that is absolutely interested in taking over and being the main guy in all of Ukraine. But for the United States, wouldn't it mean that if Budanov is the commander of the Ukraine forces and say he is someone who ends up de facto running the Ukraine state, what do that

mean that Russia can now actually go after the man in charge of all of Ukraine or someone very high up in all of Ukraine because Wudanov is also, if I'm not mistaken, there is a warrant. I mean, the Russians have said that he is a terrorist or he has committed terrorist activity and they can go after him. It's a different dynamic than Zaluzni or Zolensky once Wudanoff rises to that level. Absolutely. They've already tried to kill him. I mean, they attack the headquarters of Ukrainian military intelligence. There were lots of reports that Badunov was severely wounded in that

attack and that he had to go off to Germany and receive treatment there. In an interview he gave to the Financial Times. They mentioned that he'd broken his back and neck. That must be an exaggeration. People don't survive it. Then their back and neck is broken, but clearly he suffered severe injuries. in some event, and quite plausibly, it was this missile attack on his headquarters. So, you know, the Russians absolutely have him in their sights.

And notice that, you know, he gives interviews from darkened rooms, which suggests that he's, you know, got myopia and pain issues and all kinds of things like that. As somebody who suffers myopia, I understand why he might want to be in darkened rooms, and that might very well be a product of the fact that, you know, he's been severely wounded at some point in the last few months. So absolutely. I mean, in Budanov is, I mean, he makes no sense, actually, if you really want me to say. He makes absolutely no sense. He's not a person who has experience in commanding troops.

The generals will not want him. They will say, who is this young man? Because he's quite young. I believe he's 37. Who is this young man who's been put in charge of us? He's just a special forces soldier. What does he know about our job? So they won't like it. Probably the Ukrainian people won't like it. The Russians will definitely want to come after him,

as you absolutely will say. And on top of all of that, he is dangerous. He's definitely dangerous to Zelensky. and if he does manage to consolidate control of the military, given that he already has a very strong intelligence security apparatus, which has carried out assassinations. This is not controversial. He's exactly the kind of person who might eventually decide to push Zelensky aside

and take over everything himself. He's a much more plausible figure to establish. himself as some kind of, you know, military ruler of Ukraine, if I have to be honest, than Zillusion he is. He's much more likely to have that kind of ambition and drive. So, you know, he's a dangerous person to put in charge of the military, and an illogical one, and a much more logical person would indeed be Siersky. And if you really are, dreaming of an offensive or restarting an offensive. Siersky, who is, I mean, one thing one must say about him, a very aggressive officer.

I mean, he's somebody who has been launching attacks in all kinds of places. They all go wrong, but nonetheless, that's, you know, the kind of thing he does. You know, he's a more logical choice. But we're dealing with people who don't always follow logic. And that's the trouble. And one sense is that one of the things about Wadanaf is because he's the military intelligence chief, and because the United States is getting so much intelligence from the Ukrainians about the course of the war, he is somebody that some people in the United States probably work with quite regularly.

And that might include people like Newland. and that might be why they're attracted to you. All right. We will end it there at the durand.locals.com. We are on Rumble Odyssey, Bitchie, Telegram, Rock Finn and Twitter X, and go to the Duran shop, 15% off all t-shirts. Take care.