The Duran Podcast - Predicting Geopolitics w/ Professor Jiang

Episode Date: November 6, 2025

Predicting Geopolitics w/ Professor Jiang

Yeah, we're going live. We're going live, Alexander. We are live with Alexander Mercuris in London. And it is our honor and our great pleasure to have with us on the Duran, first time on the Duran, Professor Chang of the YouTube channel predictive history of which I am a huge fan of a fantastic channel on YouTube, a fantastic professor. Professor Chang, thank you so much for, joining us on the Duran. And I will have all of his channel links in the description box down below. Thank you for joining us, Professor. Thank you. Fantastic. So let's get started. We have a lot of ground to cover. But before we get moving, let's say a quick hello to everyone that is watching us on Odyssey, on Rock Finn, on Rumble and YouTube, as well as our locals community, the durand.com. And a big shout out to our moderators as well. Thank you to our moderators in the chat. So, Alexander, Professor Chang, let's talk about predicting geopolitics. Indeed, because we are, as everybody obviously must know, in a major geopolitical

conflict situation at the present time. A geopolitical conflict, which was not, in my opinion, desired by some of the parties to it. I don't think China was set out, a few years ago to find itself catapulted into a geopolitical conflict. I'm absolutely sure that it didn't. The same is true with the Russians, but they are in a geopolitical conflict, and the other major player is the United States, and it is the West. And of course, all sorts of things are taking place around the world in the Middle East, in Ukraine, in Latin America, with all these fleet movements around Venezuela. There's all kinds of events

taking place in the worlds of economy and science and technology all the time and all of these interconnect with each other in all sorts of ways. Now on the Duran, what we tend to do is we tend to go

through all of these topics one by one. We focus on each one and we discuss them, Alex and myself, and sometimes with our guests in detail. I think what we're going to do today with Professor Chang is something slightly different, which is we're going to try and pull these things together,

perhaps looking mostly, but not exclusively, at the conflict in Europe and the developments that are taking place there in order to try to understand where the final, well, where these events are leading us towards. In other words, a more, predictive, a greatest sense of where this is taking us. And there is no one better to do it with than Professor Tianang, whose channel I also, I should say, am a massive fan of which I absolutely do

recommend to everybody, to everybody who is viewing us as well. So Professor, Professor Tian, let's begin. We are now, I think you will, I think everybody is in agreement. that we are in a global geopolitical conflict. There is a view that there are actually two completely different conflicts going on, one between Russia and the United States and the West, the other specifically between China and the United States. But they have, to some extent, merged. We've had all kinds of interactions between the Americans and the Chinese recently,

and between the Russians and the Chinese. It's not been noticed so much in the West. But there are underlying trends here. There are events that are shaping how things are going. You could take us a little bit further and discuss. Should we start with Ukraine and the conflict there? The first big war in Europe, the first war involving major clashes of armies that has taken place

since the end of the Second World War. Europe has historically, in the West at least, been the pivot area. It's probably not that to anything like the same degree that it used to be. But can you perhaps give us a few thoughts about where you think this is going? Maybe looking at a bit of predictive history,

if I can put it like this, looking back at history, looking also perhaps at other science. scientific tools, which I know you're very skilled at U.S. Okay, so thanks so much for having me on the Duran. I've been a big fan of your show for like four years now. I actually started first watching the Duran when the war broke out on February 22nd, 2022. And the reason why was all the mainstream news coverage I was watching was like, oh my God, Ukraine's going to march to Moscow, and Putin is going to fall,

and the Russian army is incompetent. And I couldn't believe what I was watching because it actually made no sense to me. I'm actually going to remember the Ghost of Kiev, where this lone fighter jet was flying around Ukraine, just shooting on all these Russian jets. So the news coverage at that time was literally driving insane. It made actually no sense to me. It was as though I was living in a bizarre world.

So I scouted the internet for some, some actual information. And I found you guys. And like you literally saved my life because you actually talk sense. And so I've been watching a show ever since. So basically all that I know about Ukraine comes from you guys. So if my analysis is wrong, it's your fault, not my fault. So let's just get that out of the way. But look, I am actually much more pessimistic about the situation in Ukraine than you are. I think the war is lost. I think Ukraine has ceased to function as a nation state. The wartime casualties are estimated between one or two million people.

And you've got millions of Ukrainians who have fled overseas. If there's a peace treaty tomorrow, the Dombats would go to Russia. And the Dombats is the agricultural and industrial heartland of Ukraine. And so Ukraine would cease to be, would cease to function as a nation state. It would become a welfare state, a rump state,

that the Europeans would have to support. So I think the war is lost. If you just look at the situation on the front lines, The morale among Russian soldiers is extremely high. They've mastered drone warfare to an extent that no other nation can emulate. There's massive desertions among the Ukrainians. So the war is lost. But at the same time, if you just look at historical patterns, historical analogies,

what you will understand is, is at this time that NATO will have no choice but to double down. NATO is going to have to come into the war. Why? Because they cannot, accept the fact that they've lost. They can't go to the public and say, oh, you know, we spent hundreds of billion dollars in Ukraine. We've lost a lot of weaponry. Four years, Putin was offering peace all this time. We said no. And oops, we made a mistake. Sorry, they can't do that because

there will be a political revolution if they did do that. Zelensky can't back down now for the same reason that if the Ukrainians ever had a chance to take a full accounting of the devastating losses these past four years, there would be a violent revolution in Ukraine. So NATO is forced to double down. Also, we have to remember that NATO is heavily invested in Ukraine. I mean, like they've literally assumed that when the war is over, they'll have access to all of Ukraine's rare earth minerals. and that's part of their accounting. So given what's happened, it's almost like you've walked in a casino

and you've lost $2 million. And the casino says to you, listen, we'll take 80%, and then you can just go home. Well, and then you're like, I can't go home because I have to explain this to my wife. I can't explain this to my wife. So I'm going to keep on playing, gambling,

even though it might cost me my life. So I know it sounds suicidal, but it's a very doubt, a dire situation for NATO and for the Europeans and for Ukraine. Ukraine is no longer functional as a nation state. And if this war ever stops, then people will come to this recognition. So I think that the truth is being hidden from us. But if you just do some macroanalysis of the actual situation in Ukraine, then you can only come to the conclusion that the war is lost and the situation is far more dire than we can possibly imagine. Let's just explore this point about NATO-Dabler.

down. I mean, what is that going to mean? Is that going to mean NATO going in and fighting the Russians in Ukraine? Because that would be an extraordinary, incredibly dangerous active escalation. By the way, I agree with you that the war is lost. I'm not sure how long it will take for the full reality of that to hit home. But let's let's focus on what NATO is going to do. Because NATO going on in and fighting the Russians is going to be a dramatic event to put it mildly. I mean, it will take what is still a contained war and it would make it into an all-out European war. It would bring us much closer to the kind of situation we had in Europe between 1939 and 45. So is that where this is going. I should say that this morning, I was reading in the British media that the British

military are going to send all their remaining self-propelled howitzers, whatever they have left to Ukraine to fight there, to help the Ukrainians fight there. So already we could see that there are going to be logistical challenges to doing that. But is that where they're heading? Is that what they're thinking of doing or what they might do because I, by the way, having had experience of people who gamble, I know exactly the psychology that you describe that you go on piling in chips, if I can put it, I don't gamble myself, but you go on doing that because you lose more and more and more and more, but you say to themselves, if I do it just a little bit further, the luck will turn, the wheel will turn and I'll get into.

back. So is that what they're going to do? I don't think NATO has strategic foresight. If they did, they would not have gotten themselves in the situation in the first place, right? So we have to remember that, and Putin has said this, NATO has been fighting Russia and Ukraine for the past four years anyway. Because even though it's Ukrainian menpower, it is NATO weaponry, NATO intelligence, NATO special forces, NATO command and control, NATO targeting. targeting. So, you know, when these bridges get blown up in Crimea, it's not Ukraine that's doing this. It's NATO that's doing this, right? All these deep strikes into Russia. That's, that's NATO. Ukraine doesn't have the expertise, the personnel, the weaponry to do this. It's all NATO. So NATO has been fighting anyway. So what we're seeing right now is a gradual mission creep.

And so, listen, the reality is we already have NATO mercenaries, NATO Special Forces, NATO officer on the ground in Ukraine. It's a open secret. So you just have mission creep, you just have a gradual expansion of this. And then what I think will happen is that eventually you get a point where NATO decides that the front lines cannot be hold. You know, Provost has fallen. 10,000 Ukrainians have an encircle. The frontlands cannot be held right now. So what you do is you make Odessa your final stand.

You make Odessa of the Stalingrad of this war. And that's why I think the final battle will be. The issue for NATO right now is you don't have a manpower necessary to make a military. the final stand. So eventually they'll be forced to have a draft. You know, Romania has already discussed the possibility of drafting young men. This creates a problem for NATO because their governments are not very popular back in Europe. You have massive migration that is weakening the social contract, that is weakening social cohesion. It seems as though France and Britain are almost on the verge of civil war right now. So it's a very delicate situation for NATO.

On one hand, they need to draft soldiers for this war in Ukraine that they cannot afford to lose. On the other hand, it's possible these soldiers mutiny at some point. So I don't think NATO knows what it's doing. I don't think NATO has a strategic plan moving forward. At the same time, it's a gambolence mentality where you're just forced to move in more and more chips, even though it's impossible to recover your losses right now. It's not just a Romania that's talking of reintroducing the draft. Germany is doing the same.

And I know Germany very well. And I know that the mood amongst young Germans is very, very hostile to that idea. And I do think that if there was an attempt to do that and to try and send young men from Europe to fight in Ukraine, I think there would be a very, very strong reaction very much in the line with what you have suggested. Now, let's just look through this. The Europeans send troops to fight in Odessa. There is a Stalingrad-type battle there. They're up against a much, much more experienced Russian army.

Their troops are unwilling. There's probably major discontent and disaffection in Europe. it's not easy to see this battle being won against the Russians. It seems to me like a recipe for disaster if we ever get there. And what does the United States do in that situation? Right. So I think NATO is doing this because United States is forcing it to do this. I think if we're up to Europeans, there would be no war.

Remember, Germany relies on cheap Russian gas. this war does not benefit Europe in any way. In fact, you can make the argument that after 2014, the Europeans have basically screwed over by the Americans, right? So this is something that America is forcing upon NATO. And quite honestly, it doesn't really matter to America if NATO falls, right? Because it's all the way up in Europe. And this is why we're seeing such idiotic decision-making,

because for the Americans, it's like, who really cares? I mean, we decided to fight Russia to last Ukrainian. Now we want to fight Russia to last European. Is there really a difference from our perspective? All we need to do is bog Russia down, you know? And if this war keeps on dragging, there's a possibility that the Russian economy collapses. And in fact, Americans are absolutely confident that eventually the Russian economy will buckle under American sections, even though there's actually no evidence this is the case.

In fact, we're seeing a resurgence in the Russian economy. But the problem in Washington, D.C. is they are so removed the actual reality and the consequences of this reality that they are making really silly decisions. I mean, like the idea is that, well, you know, if keep on footing Russia and Ukraine, eventually Russia will tie yourself out. But it's like saying to you, it's like saying, well, you know, I'm going to box someone. and this person works out every day, but I won't work out because, you know,

he'll work out every day and he'll just exhaust himself. So when actual fight happens, and I'll just knock him down because, like, I'm well arrested, you know, and like he's not. Okay, that's, it's, like, American distribution making has never, ever been strategic. It's never been clairvoyant. So I don't see America are doing much in this, in this situation.

Isn't this a little bit like what happened at the, at the end of the Chinese war, the war between the Communist Party of China, the People's Liberation Army and the Guamindang. Because you had the defeat of the Guamindang, and they went to Taiwan, and then very shortly after, you had the Korean War. And the Americans assume that they would be able to go into Korea, and they got all their allies to fight in Korea. and they completely discounted the possibility that China might intervene. I've read this history. I know this history very, very well.

And then, of course, China does intervene. And it comes as a profound and complete shock. Even at that point, they're not able to think strategically or have any capacity to understand that the other side and China at that time did not particularly want, by the way, to be the other side, but it became that, that the other side would have to react to what it saw as a major strategic

and security challenge to itself. This inability to think strategically actually has a very, very long, deep roots in the United States. Look, I mean, it's not just not being able to think strategically. I mean, there's also some racism involved as well, right? So if you look at the documents and look at what MacArthur, you know,

who was Supreme Commander of our forces, in Korea what he was thinking he was just basically thinking you know the Chinese are cowards the Chinese are going to risk of fight Chinese are afraid of dying so he had absolutely contempt for the Chinese army and that's why his American forces were overextended in Korea and they were easily encircled by Chinese forces I mean if you talk to any American historian they'll tell you that the Chinese army in Korea fought with extreme bravery fought with extreme strategy, they outmaneuvered and circled the American forces. And it was a miracle that the Americans were able to retreat in order.

Yeah. So I don't think it's just like lack of force. And it's also deep contempt for other nations as well. But that's no different with the Russians. Exactly. Back to what you were saying of contempt that they're incompetent, that they're inefficient and all of those things. I have a lot of American friends and they all tell me, you know, there's an entrenched

Russia phobia in. Washington, D.C. There's a deep contempt. There's a deep fear of Russia. And it's never gone away, not even after the end of the Cold War. It's still there. Let's just discuss what happens. So the Europeans go in, the Americans push them, tell them to go in. It turns into a military debacle, because I have to say, that seems to me far and away the most likely outcome. It also turns into a major political crisis in Europe. And you talked about the economic instabilities. I'd say Europe is much more unstable economically at this particular point in time than Russia is.

I know that's a view that many people will challenge, but that is my own view. Let's assume that I am right. We have a massive crisis in Europe. That might call into question the entire existence of nature. Or am I missing something? Look, so the closest historical analogy is the Pelopetian War between Athens and Sparta. And if you read Fucydides, what he tells you is that the war was not really between Athens and Sparta. It was really between Athens and its allies because Athens was exploiting the resources of its allies,

sending its allies to these pointless wars. And eventually, these allies will switch sides and join Sparta because Athens were so well. because athletes were so oppressive. So if that's a guide, then we can expect that eventually Europe is going to figure out, you know what, is Russia really our enemy or it's America our enemy, right? Because the Russians are offering peace. The Russians have told us that they're not going to invade. And like, why would you ever think that Putin has intentions of invading?

Whereas America, you know, it blew up our North Stream pipeline. It sank our economies. It's forcing us to buy really expensive American liquefied gas. It's going to force us into this pointless, unwinnable war in Ukraine. And they are imposing tariffs on us to drain our economy further. So who's our enemy right now? Is Russia our enemy or is America our enemy? I think eventually they'll come to the conclusion that they're actually better off with Russia than they are with America.

I don't know how long it will take, but I think if the public Asian war is a guide, then that's the end result. as a Greek and an Athenian, a very old Athenian, I can absolutely confirm what you've just said. In fact, Athens came to be called the tyrant city. And when it was finally defeated, there was calls from Athens' former allies that the city be completely expunged from the earth. And it was the Spartans who said, no. So they actually spoke out against it. Okay, so we have a situation.

Again, let's explore this. We have a situation where the European allies finally rebel, not under the present leadership, but under alternative leaderships, which is far from inconceivable, by the way. And we have a dramatic change in Europe's attitudes. Where does that leave the United States? because I'm going to suggest something.

I know a lot of Americans, John Meersheimer is one, and he's somebody I've come to know very well. He says that, you know, the United States doesn't need Europe. Europe is, you know, problematic place. I think that would be true if the United States were to follow a policy of peace and internal construction and development. But a United States that continues to be wedded to geopolitical ambitions,

I mean, it will have lost its key allies. I mean, surely that will weaken it, not strengthen it. So go back to the Pelican of War, right? Remember that Athens was not only funding enemies overseas, Sparta and Sicily, Syracuse, was also fighting an internal civil war, right? So there was a coup d'etat in Athens by the elite, and then there was a rebellion by settlers.

So internal Athenian and politics was just completely bonkers, right? You had people like Cleon, Alcabites, they were demagogues, and they were causing lots of problems internally. So I think why Athens was defeated, was not because it faced a superior foe in Sparta. It collapsed because of this internal infighting.

And I think that's what's happening in the United States right now. I mean, like, let's go to the United States. The government is shut down. I'm not sure people recognize this, but the government is shut down. It's possible when next, you know, month, you have tens of millions of Americans starving because they don't have access to food stamps. And no one seems to care. Donald Trump doesn't really seem to care.

And, you know, there's talk of a civil war in the United States. And I think it's very likely the United States will enter in a civil war situation in the next two to four years, especially after 2028 elections when whoever wins, the other side just will not accept that person as the president. So I think the United States is going to go through a very tough period of imperial decline. So I think what's happening in Europe is one theater, but the real theater is moving in the United States. You know, if civil discontent erupts in the United States, then it will be very, very ugly because Americans are the most heavily armed people in the world. Indeed. I mean, actually, the point you've made, because, again, as somebody who knows the history very well, because it is the history of my city, one of the things you find towards the end of the Peloponnesian war is that even as there is this internal crisis in Athens, Athenian decision-making becomes increasingly irrational. and loses all contact with reality

and becomes unbelievably aggressive. I mean, it starts wars in all sorts of places until eventually Athens is basically fighting everybody the Persians, the Sicilians, the Spartans, its own allies,

it's fighting everybody at once. And as you rightly said, there's an internal crisis as well. Yeah. So I love talking to you because you know so much about the war, but yeah, the turning point in the war was actually the invasion of Sicily, right? So before then, it was not really a problem for Athens.

It had the most prominent Navy in the Mediterranean, but the Sicily expedition was completely pointless. No one knew why they were doing it. And it was very costly, not only that they lost all their soldiers in the expedition, but they'd also brought in Syracuse into the war, and Syracuse had a Navy, Spartan not have a Navy.

So Syracuse was down in the war, And that's what marked the downfall of Athens. So I think in the American situation, I think the downfall will be the irrational invasion of Iran. One of the biggest predictions is that eventually America will reach a point where it decides to launch a ground invasion of Iran. And I think it'll be exactly the same as what happened to the Athenians in Sicily. They go into Sicily and they win all these major battles at first,

but then they're balked down. They can't be supplied their troops. and then those troops are forced to surrender against a superior Syracuse counteroffensive. I think we have a very similar scenario in the Middle East. What is the risk that nuclear weapons could be used in these kind of scenarios? Because this is the fundamental difference between our situation today and the situation in the past. I mean, there were no nuclear weapons in the 5th century before Christ. I mean, there didn't exist then.

So Athens might be going down, but it didn't have the option of using nuclear weapons. America, in theory, does. Is that a risk? You know, I actually discount the use of nuclear weapons. I don't think nuclear weapons will be ever used. First of all, it's ultimate taboo, right? I mean, whoever uses nuclear weapons will be a peristate for all of eternity, right? It doesn't matter who it is.

If America uses it, then the entire world will turn against America, and America will be held in a hug and contempt for all of eternity. So I think that's the first thing. The second thing is that we have to remember that even at least nation states are at war, they still have a lot of back channels. There's still negotiations going on. So remember, like even during the punishment war, Sparta and Athens, their elite were very close. They were intermarried with each other.

And, you know, when Athens captured these Spartan hostages, the Athenians did return the hostages after some negotiations. So the war never descended into complete barbarism. I mean, there were some engagement still in place. So even though Russia and the United States still have war with each other, they still have a lot of backdoor China communications. Remember, what people don't recognize is that Putin and Trump are very good friends. And we know that from the meeting in Alaska in Anchorage.

If you just look at the body language, if you just look at their demeanor, the language, They're very close. They sort of have a rapport with each other. So I would discount actually they use some nuclear weapons. I do not think it's a factor in what will happen over the next 10 years. Let's just pursue the Peloponnesian foreign analogy, which is an interesting one for me because obviously I'm Greek. Is Venezuela like the attack on Melos? Another action that Athens really didn't need to take, but it attacks Melos, basically it's starting to sense maybe that it's going down and things are starting to turn against it.

But then it goes against Melos. It crushes this island state, which is trying to preserve neutrality and balance between the superpowers of the time, Sparta and Athens. And in doing so, it shocks the entire ancient world, the ancient Greek world. I mean, it's one of the things that turns attitudes against Athens. And of course, it leads Thucydides to do this incredibly powerful and extraordinary debate, which people always quote in many, many discussions. I mean, is this what the whole Venezuela thing is,

partly a demonstration again of power, an attempt to assert power and assert power in your own, what you claim to be your sphere of influence, humans. Yeah, so for me, Melos was a turning point in the war because that's when Athens shed all pretence of hypocrisy, all pretence of liberalism, virtue, democracy, right? Might is right. That's what the Athenians said to the Millennians. We can do whatever we want because we're stronger than you and so just shut up and obey us. And the million said, we'd rather die. And Nathan said, fine, then we'll just kill all of you.

Okay. So I think if I were to draw historical parallel to Melos, I think it would be more like Gaza or Palestine. Because, you know, the Gaza moment, that's when the entire war has given up hope in the United States. The Americans are clearly collaborators in what's happening in Gaza. And so I think the world is just disgusted with American supremacy, American power. my understanding of Venezuela is different. I actually don't think the United States will launch a ground invasion of Venezuela.

I don't think they have the appetite for it. I don't think they have the resources, the manpower, the global will, to actually launch an invasion of Venezuela. What I think is happening there is actually a bit different. So let me tell you my analysis, and then you can respond. I think that right now there's a hidden war in geopolitics. The hidden war is between the nationalist versus the globalist. Another thing is that Trump is taking on the global deep state.

You know, the city of London, Wall Street, Wall Street, the Deep State. Who he thinks caused him to lose election in 2020. He still talks about how he was cheated in 2020. And who cheated him? The deep state. So he sees his real enemy as a deep state. Okay. So if we do believe it's a global deep state, and there obviously is, how do they exercise power?

Well, they exercise power by controlling three ways of generating immense profits. Okay. The first is debt, meaning finance and gambling. The second is through slavery, meaning constitution, human trafficking. That's the second thing. And the third thing is drugs. Okay, so listen, going back to Chinese history, Britain did fight the open wars in order. to enforce drugs onto China.

And it was an extremely profitable endeavor. And you create the entire global financial system off the opium wars. And so did that system go away? I don't think it went away. I think that if you just look at the city of London, it's still a money laundering operation. So if you were Trump and you really wanted to destroy the global deep state,

If you really want to destroy the state of London, what you do is you attack what makes money, right? You attack their drug smuggling operations. So when Trump says that, you know, we're bombing these drug smugglers and everyone's like, well, no, no, no, they're fishing vessels. I actually think Trump's telling the truth in this instance. I think they are actually bombing drug smugglers. And so they're trying to destroy the drug smuggling apparatus off the world. And that's possibly why they're talking about also intervention in Nigeria or wherever. So I think that is actually the grand play here to weaken the global steep state by destroying their money-making operations.

And so I don't think Trump will actually invade Venezuela. I think this all bluster. And I think that, but you'll see continual actions against drug smokers around the world. That is what I think is going on. That is very interesting. Can I just say, I live in London. I've lived here since the 60s. The symbols of wealth created from the opium wars are everywhere.

Many of the financial institutions in London that are so famous to this. I'm not going to name them because that might be legal issues. But if you go back into their prehistory or their early history, you will find that a lot of it does come from that, from what happened, the opium wars, and the trade in opium in China, which, of course, people in China remember extremely well. The British don't remember it, anything like as well, just to say.

That is interesting. Does that explain, however, this very strange story about fentanyl. And I'd like to bring in China now, because China is the colossus. I've always myself felt that in the end, everything that America does at the moment is ultimately about China. I don't know whether you agree with this, but that's certainly my own view,

that the conflict in Ukraine, in Russia, in Iran, ultimately, if we come to that, it's all ultimately about China and about the challenge that Americans perceive as China. posing. Where does this whole fentanyl thing come from then? Because I completely discount the idea that China is involved in fentanyl smuggling. I think that makes no sense to me at all and I've seen no evidence to support that claim. And yet it is endlessly repeated and widely believed and Trump himself claims it and he's posed tariffs on China in connection with it. How does that fit into what

you've just been saying. Yeah, so I think that the infrastructure, financial infrastructure you had for the OPM wars is now underpinning all global drug trade, including fentanyl. So there are definitely Chinese nationals involved in fentanyl trade, but not the government, okay? The government would not support such an endeavor. So these are Chinese secret societies, Chinese criminal organizations that are producing, some precursor chemicals necessary, but it's a global network.

And you're actually right in that most of the federal fennacle smuggling is probably done by deep-state actors, like the CIA. Like, I'm just guessing. I don't know, okay. But because drugs is so profitable, you can imagine that multiple these state actors are involved and there's a lot of money laundering growing around. I mean, it's a very sophisticated system that they have. And so whether or not you, whether you smuggle opium, whether you smuggle fentanyl, it's the same system.

Let's talk about China, because China is very different from the United States. I mean, the Americans are very, very busy all the time. They're very, I mean, there's almost feverish activity, activity in the Middle East, activity in Europe, as we've just been discussing, activity in Latin America. in all sorts of places. China by contrast remains very, very calm and very still. Is this how China plays? There's a friend of mine who is an academic, by the way, British academic. And he reminded me about, you know, the Chinese idea of was it no action, the Taoist thing, that you remain still. Can you discuss this? Yeah, so I'm not sure if you had a chance to read Romans of the Three Kingdoms.

That is the source of mold. Absolutely, I have. I've got it over there. Yeah, so, you know, Zhuge Liang is considered like the greatest military strategist in Chinese history. And he's able to foresee the future. The strategies that he develops are just

extremely sophisticated extremely intricate. But what he did was he launched a series of invasions against his enemy. And all his enemy did was to sit back and let Dugal M overextend and ultimately retreat. So that is the final example of why it's important to let your enemy do all the work, okay? Because your enemy, if they do all the work, they're going to make all the mistakes. and you just sit back and you win. You just respond slightly to their maneuvers.

So, you know, Dugoland, he had all these strategies. He had, he amassed all these forces. But, you know, when you actually move against an enemy, you're much more likely to make mistakes than you just sit back and defend. So that's the entire Chinese concept of geopolitics. Sit back and win. Very, very, very different from the American. and Western one.

But let's just turn now to the events that are taking place because we talked about Iran, we talked about Russia, we talked about the conflicts in these places. Is China going to be completely inactive in relation to them? Let's just assume, let's just look forward to an American invasion of Iran. And I agree, by the way, there are pressures for this. we've been talking about this many times I still believe an attack on Iran is going to come

at some point maybe not this year as I once thought but sooner or later it is going to come and it's difficult to see how that is going to play out but if there is an attack on Iran what would China do would it just remain passive or waiting for the Americans to burn themselves out or would it take action as it did in Korea, as it also did, of course, in Vietnam? Right. So China right now is heavily reliant on Iran, right? Because China imports all of its oil and a third of its food.

So if a war breaks out in the Middle East, then China is in a very, very unstable situation. Its economy could face collapse. So China would need to make preparations and it would need to make contingency plans. Right now, the Chinese military is not equipped to fight wars overseas. It does not have a blue water navy. It has no experience fighting wars overseas. It doesn't have the supply lines, logistics networks, the commanding control centers to fight a war as far away as Iran. But I think that the Iranians have given assurance to the Chinese that Iran doesn't really need any help, right?

Because let's just imagine what an actual invasion would look like. If Americans were to invade Iran, America could in the first four weeks occupy a great deal of Iran. America could knock out the air defenses. America could establish forward operating bases very, very quickly because the American military is equipped for shock and all, for, you know, these splits crack offensive. And there's very little that Iran could do to stop this sort of offensive. Once America is embedded in Iran, based of the topography, America would have a lot of issues with logistics, with resupply. And at this point, if Iran were to engage in a guerrilla warfare using drones to strike at American supply lines, then the war's over. I mean, you've got 100,000, 20,000 American soldiers in Iran.

They can't resupply. It's hard to reinforce them. And they're all spread out. And they have actually no sense of strategy. They don't know what to do. I mean, the war's basically over, right? So if this is a situation, I think this is the most likely scenario, what would China need to do in this sort of situation? What would Russia need to do?

And Russia is going to overextend the United States in Ukraine anyway, right? Because while this war is Iran is happening, the United States is not going to leave Ukraine. It's still going to fight in Ukraine. And it's very likely that the United States is also engaged in a civil war at that point. There's all this domestic turmoil. So I'm not really sure what role China would play when America has chosen this path of self-destruction. That's interesting because, again, I know a little bit about Iranian history. And of course, this is an enormous country.

Again, I think people in the West underestimate the size of Iran and its complexity and the difficulty of its geography. And it's very, very mountainous. It's got great cities, but it's also a place where you could absolutely withdraw into the mountains. I mean, it's Afghanistan multiplied with enormously a much, much more sophisticated culture and a culture of resistance and a culture of resistance as well. Can I ask you about a discussion that are grotesquely, comically incompetent European High Representative Kayakalas is supposed to have had with Wang Yi, who is China's foreign minister. This is basically derives from a story that appeared in the South China Morning Post, but I'm not sure how reliable it is.

but it's been widely circulated and publicized in Europe, which is apparently Kayakales is alleged to have told Wang Yi in apparently a difficult meeting that went on for hours and in which she lectured him about every conceivable thing and in which even Wang Yi started apparently to become impatient over the course of the meeting. But anyway, she apparently asked him to put pressure on Russia to end the war in Ukraine on basically Western terms.

And according to this claim that appears, Wang Yi responded that this is absolutely not what China is going to do, because doing that would simply set the scene for the West to come after China once they finished with Russia. Is this true, or at least maybe because we don't know, I mean, neither of us was there at the meeting, But do you feel that this could have been true? So Americans are discussing a new military policy

across strategic sequencing, right? So like, you know, let's end the war in Ukraine so we can move against Iran and then China, right? And then the Russians are like, well, then all that means is that you'll circle back to us eventually, right? So like we're not going to agree to end this war in Ukraine. So, I mean, like given the Jopu'll landscape, Russia, China, and Iran

earn a stick together because they know that if one of them falls, everyone else falls. It's all strategic sequencing. It's all saying, like, you know, who they take out first so they can move on to the next target. So it sounds to me

like a very plausible conversation. It seems to me the European armament would be arrogant enough, silly enough, and short-sighted enough to make the sort of demand. And the Chinese response

is very much in line with diplomatic protocol. trying to think of them bad in Russia so that it can be, you know, targeted later on. And right now, Iran, Russian, China, recognize that they need to stick together against American Empire or the fall one by one. The idea of strategic sequencing, which is becoming very widespread, as you rightly say, in American strategic circles, originates with the man called Aaron West Mitchell, who uses history in a very different way, the way that you do Professor Zhang and the way I do as well.

And I don't think he understands history at all. But he is apparently a very close friend of Elbridge Colby. Right. Who is the assistant secretary of war, I presume we must now call him. And he is somebody who's particularly well known as a China hawk

and who basically does see things very much about conflict with China, which is the idea is you, instead of taking on all your enemies at once, you take them on one by one on the assumption that they will not notice that what you're doing and that they won't respond, which is very strange. But anyway, bringing us back to this, though, Elbridge Colby, and this is basically my last question, by the way, for today, because we're no doubt. going to have many conversations. But Elbridge Colby is now apparently talking about hemispheric defense, that the United States is overextended, that the game with China is in some

way lost. There's been a new report by the Rand Corporation, which talks about trying to get to some kind of understanding with China. and that the United States needs to concentrate instead on defense of its own hemisphere, its own sphere of influence, North America and South America. And we've had talk about, you know, creating a new fleet, a special fleet with armored warships that are going to defend the hemisphere. Is there any prospect that that is indeed what the United States might do?

I mean, it goes against all of the other trends that we are seeing for the United States to involve itself in lots of other places? Yeah, so my gut reaction is that they're going to throw a lot of things at the wall, and nothing's going to stick. Because right now, the American military bureaucracy is not capable of pivoting, of reprioritizing. They're kind of stuck where they are, which is to fight wars everywhere without any issue to objectives.

So it gets involved in the silly wars, kind of extricate itself, and then it doubles down. And that's been a situation for a long time. And they feel as though they succeeded. Because, remember, the American military industrial complex, it's a very corrupt institution that leaches off the nation state. So Julian Assange said at best. The point is not to have successive wars.

The point is to have never-ending wars. So, I mean, I don't people recognize the corruption in the American military complex. Right. And again, the problem is America can feel no consequences for these disastrous wars overseas. So what if Europe falls? So what if America gets defeated in Iran? They'll just retreat back to the continent of the fortress. And, you know, the Western Hemisphere is completely self-sufficient. Worst case scenario, America just, you know, I said stuff in the Western Hemisphere. And it's not an issue for America. So America continues to make all these silly strategic mistakes. It's not

capable of long-term strategic planning. And the corruption within the military is endemic. And there's really nowhere out for them. I'm going to finish there, but just to add to that about corruption, because that is another major story in, you can take from history, if we talk about Athens in the 5th century, corruption gets completely out of control there and starts to influence decision making. And it also happens in Republican Rome. And by the way, it happens in Britain too.

Right. towards the end of the 19th. So I don't understand you because you're an Athenian, but remember, once they start being corrupt, they never stop being corrupt. No, no, that's it. It becomes, it becomes the organizing principle around which all decisions ultimately end up being made.

That is the reality of corruption, which I've seen, I've seen how it plays out myself. So I know all about that. Professor Chang, you have been marvelous, if I may say, There's been a wonderful program. I'm going to stop now. What we like to do when we have, you know, our conversations and the conversation between myself and, well, yourself in this case,

what we do is we allow a few minutes, about 15, 20 minutes, maybe for some of our viewers to put comments and Alex. I'm going to, if you're right with that. Thank you. Thank you. I've got questions queued up. And on the corruption with Athens and with Greece, yeah, it never ends. It never ends.

That's for sure. We notice it today. So from Sahewa 100, multipolarity can be given a super boost if India and China bury their differences and focus on trade and investment. Alas, respective media for animosity. So India and China burying their animosity, what do you think about that, Professor? Yeah, no, I think that it would be wonderful if India and China were to come together. Unfortunately, there's a lot of historical animosity between the two, and also there are some geopolitical realities that cannot be ignored. So, for example, the Tibetan Plateau provides freshwater to a lot of these Asian countries.

And so there's always going to be some geopolitical rivalries between India and China. In fact, India would see China as the immediate geopolitical threat to itself. So I don't think that's something that can be papered over. From Ivan Markov, I'm so happy to see Professor Chang on the Duran. This is awesome. You need to watch his lecture on civilization. Definitely need to watch that. So, you guys, I did a lecture on homework today, okay?

So I don't like to prove myself, but you two will enjoy homework. Like my lecture on Homer. Yeah, I'm sure you read Homer, but you'll enjoy my take on Homer. Fantastic lectures, by the way, on his channel. From Sahwa 100, Professor Chang, what's the mood like in China? Do they feel like they want to back de-dollarization, support for the global South repashmoan with India? Yeah, so the mood in China, it's very complex. And especially after COVID, because, remember, after COVID,

The Chinese economy did take a major hit. Consumer confidence is not that high right now. So, you know, I think Chinese people just want peace in the world. Chinese are very much afraid of what's happening in Ukraine. They're very concerned about what could happen in the Middle East. So Chinese people are just praying for peace. They're praying for people to be more like Chinese people, reasonable, pragmatic, and willing to negotiate.

From Nikos, I hope Professor Chang doesn't think Russia is weak because they move slow. According to GROC, Russia is considered a superpower, just not as big as China. I think Russia is the most dominant military in the world right now. I don't think Russia is weak at all. So Russia is slow, but it's slow because they specialize in artillery warfare. And also, Russia wants to minimize civilian casualties as well as the short. of critical infrastructure, electricity grids, water supplies. Because the Russian city Dombas is part of Russia, right?

So Russia wants to govern Dombas after the war. So that's why Russia is being very methodical and slow in the process. So I don't think Russia is weak at all. In fact, I would say that given what's happened in these past four years, Russia has proven itself to be the most dominant military in the world. I think that if NATO and the United States were to get together and fight Russia in Ukraine, then I would bet Russia would win. From Chunky Monkey, if the AI bubble suddenly bursts and subsequently Trump presides over the collapse of the US economy,

what is the likely geopolitical impact? Yeah, so that's a big concern right now, where the AI is clearly a bubble. It's overextended. It doesn't make any money. Like people don't recognize that Chachibati They don't make any money. In fact, they lose money hand over fist. And so it's very likely the bubble will pop. And I also think that it's very likely that the collapse will be engineered to create as much social chaos as possible. In other words, I think that social unrest will be instigated.

And because if there's social unrest, then Trump can invoke the Interaction Act. He can deploy the National Guard everywhere. So I think that what's happening in the United States is a very volatile situation. And you would think that given all this chaos in the United States, the United States would retrench, right? Would sort of like draw back from its foreign commitments. But you know, you study history, it's the complete opposite. If there's internal chaos, the empire lashes out overseas. So we're in for a rough ride.

From fuzzy balls, is the United States intentionally bankrupting as many European countries as possible to force them to get American loans and buy American bonds? So that's a good question. I don't know if Americans are that clever, actually. I think it's just like Americans are just used to like doing things about any consequences. Remember back in World War I, the Americans were financing both the Bolsheviks as well as the right Russians because war makes money, right? And so they don't really foresee consequences. They really don't make, you know, long-term predictions. You know, I hate to say this.

I went to Yale. I took a lot of political science course at Yale. These guys are not that bright, okay? The people control the American foreign policy operators. They're not that bright. I hate to say that. From Geo Stone, how would the world react if Venezuela are able to sink an aircraft aircraft aircraft.

with the Russia or Chinese weapon. How would the US ever recover? I don't think Venezuela would ever do that. I mean, the United States would respond with nuclear weapons if that would happen because it would be a tremendous loss of face for the United States. I think that it's very likely that the United States actually launched a ground invasion of Venezuela. And if there's a ground invasion, then Venezuela would choose to fight a guerrilla war as opposed to like a, you know, like a kinetic war head off.

head on because you would get totally destroyed by the American military if you would do that. From Mark Hewitt, people talk about the neocons, Rubio Kellogg, whispering in his ear, but forget the influence of Susie Wiles acting as a gatekeeper for the neocons. Absolutely. Yeah, about Susie Wiles. Yeah, absolutely. Absolutely. Right now, the Trump camp is very much divided, right, between the American firsters and the

Neocons. And Susie Wiles, she has a notorious background. She is very close with the Zionist. She's very close with the military industrial complex. And it seems as though she's able to manipulate things so that Trump's policies are aligned with the Zionists. Yeah, no, I think she's very good at what she does. All right. Two more questions. Is that all right? Yeah, absolutely. Great. Two or three more questions. From Jay Basin, what does the world look like past the special military operation?

So, again, I think that there will be a showdown in Odessa. So I think Odessa will be the final battle. After Odessa, I see civil war, political collapse, in Europe. I see Europe changing sides after new governments come in because they want this exploitation to

end. They want these immigrants to leave Europe. But, you know, this timeline drags on, right? Because remember, Russia fights a war really slowly. An encirclement of Odessa would be a very drawn-out process.

So we don't know. It's hard for, you know, say what happens after Odessa. The big question for me is how long Putin can go on for, because Putin is really, in my mind, a strategic genius. He's able to force things far ahead. He's able to control a major events. He's a force of stability in the world. So I don't know what would happen if you were to leave the world stage. So that's my concern, actually. Interesting. All right. From locals, our locals chat from Jeffrey Brown. When Biden lets slip that China isn't going to eat your lunch. China is not a hegemonic aspirin power. And the former Australian Prime Minister Keating has basically said that China is our future economic partner here in Australia, above and beyond the U.S. and the EU. What is our way forward in Australia to go against the narrative?

So, you know, China does not have geopolitical ambitions. You know, it doesn't have the sort of a fostering spirit that the Westerners have, right? I mean, like Germany, England, America, these are all very Faustian countries that want to exert itself globally. China is very happy being China. China doesn't want to extend itself overseas. So China wants actually to be friends with everyone. It wants to be friends with Russia. It wants to be friends with the United States.

He wants to be friends with Australia. So I don't know why Westerners obsessed with this narrative that China is going to take over the world. Chinese aren't interested in taking over the world. Chinese are very interested in trading with everyone. It sees global trade as a source of both peace and prosperity. So China is very much interested in maintaining the current global order. one based on trade. So if I'm Australia, then I would trade as much as possible with China.

And from Elsa, Calas quoted a Japanese think tank and told that opinion research in China show that the people don't support Russia in the SMO. I ask just for fun. Is Callis right? Okay. She's right. So let me explain why. the American says something really, really clever.

In 1980s, China was still close from the world. But during this time, what's really popular at these pirated DVDs showing these American movies. And Chinese would buy up these pirated DVDs and play it at home. And for them, for Chinese, because this is right after Cultural Revolution, right? These pirate DVDs represent a revelation. There was like the Bible to them. them. And it represented to like the

promised land. And it sort of brainwashed them into thinking that America really is the promise land. And so there's always been this goodwill among ordinary Chinese towards America. I think it's a problematic belief. I think it's delusional. But

America did that does solve power really well. That's why America is able to give with so much crap because it has Hollywood. It has this popular culture. that's been able to brainwash a lot of young people around the world. And it's been very effective in China.

Someone wants to know, Professor Chang, if you have lectures on the Civil War? Or on the future Civil War? I don't know. Just it speaks about the Civil War. I guess maybe the future Civil War. Oh, right. Yeah.

So, yeah. I do have a lecture specifically on that. So it's called the Second American Civil War. And it's on my channel. And it's part of my Geo Strategy lectures. And I think it's number 11. It's just, you know, YouTube just write down second American Civil War, predictive history, and you will see it.

All right. And one last one from Iranian kiddo. A common question. The second Athenian League partially revived the Dalian League for one last time, but not for long, ending the wars between Athens and its allies once again. Yeah. I don't know that much about the second Athenian League. But I do know that, you know, during the Pelican War, Athens became corrupt.

And it still had the greatest navy in the Mediterranean. It still had leading generals, really bright individuals. But never really recovered the glory that it had during Pericles. Yep. All right. Alexander, anything bad together? No, well, just a second. That was a fantastic life.

Yeah, Théni League, yeah. It's the fourth century. It's after the defeat of Athens. When Sparta becomes brutal and tyrannical and people have to come together around Athens. So it's part of that history, but it didn't last very long. And it caused all kinds of megalomania in Athens to come back and led to the disasters of the later fourth century. But this is a long historical. topic to discuss some other time.

I just wanted to say this has been an amazing program and I think we've all enjoyed it hugely. And I think we've also learned an awful lot and Professor Chang, let's do some more. Yeah, absolutely. It's been a lot of fun. I love talking about the Petitian War. So to be able to talk it

for this long, I'm very, very happy. That was a fantastic live. Thank you so much for joining us. Predictive History, everybody, is the channel. It is in the description box down below. I will also add it as a pin. comment as well. Thank you, Professor Chang for joining us on the Duran. Thank you. Thank you. Take care. All right. Alexander.

Let's answer whatever remaining questions we have. Absolutely. A lot of good questions left. Of course. Fantastic live stream. Absolutely. Very interesting. Talking about that's four. Very interesting. All right. Haroko, thank you for that membership. Gifted five Duran memberships. I still can't figure out what that means. Gifting memberships, but thank you. Let's see from Nikos.

Alex, I hope you didn't go completely to Gilbert, Doctoro's Camp of Nonsense. I see this recently. Dr. Toro is whining. Levan is whining in others. There's another part. One second. I do agree with your criticisms of President Putin.

He over-invested in Trump. He's trying to prevent the West from starting World War III and blowing us up. I watched Jim Jatris yesterday saying that Russia should strike a British base in Cyprus and at the same breath saying that World War III might happen. A couple more parts, Alexander. I keep saying it to people, but no one is listening. What do you think is going to happen if Russia responds?

They want that. They want to invade. The West is bankrupt. They need Russia's resources. and if they can't get them, they'll rather destroy the world. They'll be safe in their bunkers. Well, an awful lot to unpack here. I mean, when I think Gilbert Doctra has gone wrong

is that I think that he imagines that there is a political challenge in Moscow to Vladimir Putin and his position as president of Russia and as leader of the country. I don't see any sign of that whatsoever. I have been following first Soviet and then Russia, and then Russian politics since the time when I was at university, because that was what I studied.

I studied American history and I studied Soviet history and Russian history. And I always retained an interest in this. And when there is a power struggle in Moscow, you can always see the signs. I mean, that they are very, very obvious to outsiders. There is nothing like that happening in Moscow now. And I think this is where, as I said, Gilbert Doctrine went wrong.

That doesn't mean that there isn't debate and discussion and sometimes quite heated argument. And I think there was a lot of arguments last summer, ahead of the Alaska summit meeting between Putin and Trump. I think a lot of people in Moscow were saying to Putin, this meeting has not been prepared properly. We're already making concessions in advance of any commitments from the Americans, and we shouldn't be doing that.

And I think as the weeks and months passed after Alaska, those arguments gained force in Moscow, and I think they're now pretty much in the ascendant. So I think we're past that period, actually. Now, just to say this, Yesterday, there was another meeting of the Security Council in Moscow, and we've had quite a lot of information about it. It was very interesting because all of the big people were there,

all the heavy hitters, apart from Lavrov for some reason. I think he's away. But anyway, all of the heavy hitters were there. Medvedev, Shoygu, Beloosov, all of them. And they were all talking about... Gerasimov was there. They were all talking about nuclear testing. And the point was, we don't have.

understand what the Americans are up to. We don't understand whether we're supposed to take these comments of Trump seriously or not. But the consensus that everybody, including Putin, came to, is that we can't disregard this. We've learned now our lesson that if the Americans start talking in this belligerent and confrontational way, it is likely to lead to something. And the Russians took a first major step towards preparing for the possibility of the resumption of nuclear tests. So I think this debate has been resolved. And it was very interesting to see how Putin handled the entire discussion because he didn't at any point talk about diplomatic outreach, my friend Donald's, any of that sort of thing.

There was no hint of it in this discussion yesterday. So I think we now have a consensus that has developed in Moscow. Essentially, if you like, the people who won the argument are the hardliners. And I think this is now, if I can call them hardliners, the realists perhaps, or the skeptics maybe, might be the best word of all. They've won. I think even Putin has come around to this. And the Russians have made it absolutely clear after that meeting yesterday,

that if there is a resumption of nuclear testing by the United States, Russia will be there. It will resume testing itself. And that will be the end of any possibility of any kind of detain or rapprochement or return to nuclear arms. control between the Russian and American superpowers. This is a topic which Alex and I are definitely going to discuss in more detail in a more dedicated program. We touched upon this in a video last week as well, Alexander, and how a lot of Trump's moves are there to emulate, to mimic what Reagan did

during the Cold War. Yes. In the belief that this is going to bankrupt Russia, another nuclear type, of arms race is going to bankrupt Russia. Yes. Exactly. Yeah. Exactly. Which is, by the way, a misunderstanding, a misjudgment of what Reagan was actually doing as people who worked with Reagan, people like Chas Freeman,

the ambassador who's the name I've just forgotten, the one who was in Moscow at that time. And people who actually worked with Reagan are constantly trying to explain and point out that Reagan did not see confrontation with Moscow in the way that people think he did. On the contrary, he always wanted to work finally towards peace agreements with the Russians and that the end of the Cold War was successfully negotiated on that basis. Yeah. Niko says, so either Russia will Either Russia will absorb the blows, faith in Putin will diminish, and he'll be replaced by another guy willing to respond, or he responds himself.

Either option leads to nuclear war. But go ahead, push back on everything I said. It's not like we are dealing. The sociopaths that say this openly. I don't think so. I think what will happen. Again, I don't think that the demand in Moscow was for Russia to start taking very aggressive steps on the battle, you know, against the United States. blowing up carriers and attacking bases in Cyprus and doing those kind of things.

I think the point that the argument was much more calibrated, why are we making concessions about ceasefires in Herson region and Zaporosia? Why are we engaging Trump in these long discussions and negotiations when ultimately they're not going to lead anywhere? What we're doing instead is we're putting ourselves in a false position, where we're making concessions or appearing to make concessions, which will simply lead to further demands. Let's stick to the policy that is succeeding now, which is fighting the war and winning it. And that's what we should do. So I don't think, to repeat again, there is no evidence of any attempts in Moscow to overthrow Putin. I think everybody in Moscow understands that a political crisis at this time in a war acting against a massively popular and widely respected leader inside Russia, a leader who also is widely respected around the world, who is a friend of Xi Jinping, who is a friend in Narendra Modi, that this would be a catastrophic mistake.

And besides, all of the people who are to be. talking about Medvedev, Shoyugu, Bel-Usov, Gerasimov. They're all loyal to Putin. There's no sign, as I said, that there is a crisis of that kind in Moscow. But that doesn't mean that they always agree with what he thinks and does. They're not, yes, men. That's the difference between the Russian government and some of the governments that we see in other places.

Yeah, and Putin can say, you know, we tried everything with Trump. Exactly. We exhausted all our options. We tried everything and we still got sanctions and we still got a return to demanding a ceasefire. Exactly. Exactly. So, yeah. Bobby Jane, welcome to the Dran community. SCG, welcome to the Drand community.

Matthew says, how can Europe even come? contemplate a war. It has absolutely nothing to fight with and the people hate the leaders. You know something in any rational world, I would completely agree with you. Listen to the people who lead Europe today. Do they strike you as being rational? Do they strike you as being connected to reality? Because they don't come across that way to me. Once upon a time, not very long ago, actually, I assumed that realism would ultimately prevent. in Europe and I was completely wrong about it. Now I look at them, I look at Kayakalas, I listen to Osceola von der Leyen, my God, God help me.

I listen to Emmanuel Macron. These people have completely lost touch or connection to reality. They inhabit their own bubble and they are always working each other up and pushing each other to ever more extreme outcomes. Gerhard Schroeder, the last man who was a proper German chancellor, gave testimony to a investigation that's been carried out by the state of Mecklenburg about Nord Stream pipelines. And I haven't watched it, but I've managed to get quite a lot of indications about what happened. and the sanity and rationality of Schroeder, as compared with everyone else,

I think what everyone is shown. From what I could tell, he didn't give an inch, and they all came out sounding and looking, hysterical and ridiculous. Sanjava says two thumbs up for Alex and Alexander. Thank you, Sanjave for that. Jungle Jin says, is predictive history based on or related in concept

to Isaac Asimov's idea of psycho history from his foundation series? Best place to find out more? I suppose so. I mean, I think Asimov, if I have to be fractured, he's much too far. I think that he probably took the view that you can actually look at the past

and assume that what happened in the past is also going to happen again. There's a very, very famous novel in English, English novel, which the very first line is that the past is another country. People do things differently there. And I think that's something one always has to remember. We are not 5th century Athenians,

but we can nonetheless learn a lot from what 5th century Athenians do. Aquinas 1907 says Alex, please invite Simon Dixon. He has the most insightful and comprehensive view of world geopolitics that I've heard in the last four years. Eye-opener and the big aha moment. Okay, good. Yes. Definitely. Thank you for that recommendation.

Gonzo 420, welcome to the grant community. Chunky monkey says, is it plausible that Putin is a billionaire? No, I can tell you for an absolute fact that he isn't. And I can say this conclusively, because about, a couple of years ago, I actually did a massive investigation of my own, trying to get to the bottom of how rich a man Putin really is. And I came to the conclusion that he's not rich at all. Zizi Karayani, thank you for that super sticker. From Matthew, will the Russians respond to storm shadows outside of Ukraine?

Well, I don't know, possibly. But, I mean, will We'll see what will happen and we will see what the United States actually does. I mean, he mustn't put any reliance on anything the Trump says. But for the moment, he seems to be veering against missile strikes against Russia. I think Putin gave him a very, very strong warning about this. And for the moment, at least, he seems to be heeding it. Mirjana, thank you for that super sticker. from Ghanzo 420,

Stellar Show, from Jai Basin. Is it possible that Trump will face criminal charges for the extrajudicial killings as it has come to light two people survive the attack? How could the U.S. attack be anything other than terrorism? Upside world sucks. I know a lot of people are talking about this,

including some people in the military. I don't myself believe it's ever going to happen. I mean, if we're talking about criminal prosecutions at the United States against politicians, they are invariably based on the kind of things that we have seen, their reflections of political struggles within the United States. I think that the political class in the United States

will never prosecute one of its own, even someone like Trump because of violence committed overseas. It's never going to happen. Eric Hatchett, thank you for that super chat. Chunky Monkey says, why does Alex call Zelensky Elensky? Because he banned the Z. That's why I do. He banned the Z way back in the beginning of the SMO.

He banned the letter Z. Mark Hewitt says, after Mamdani's wing, do you expect an exodus from New York? How would that affect the U.S. long term? Well, who knows? I, by the way, am very underwhelmed by Mum Dhani. I've listened to him. I don't think he's going to matter very much, actually. I don't think he's going to change very much. He's going to make things worse in New York. Of that, I'm confident, by the way. I don't think he's somebody who's going to be very interested in doing much that will really improve the situation in New York at all.

And I don't think he'll be there very long. The mistake people will make is if they react to him in such a way that it makes him look like a more important and national figure than he properly or truly is. That's my view about them. Which they already are. Which they already are. I mean, they're already making. They can't help themselves. Yeah, they can't help themselves.

Fuzzy Ball says, of course, the United States is not going to invade Venezuela with 16,000 troops after they gave Russia, China and Iran a 30-day heads up so they could send weapons. defense systems and set up a defense. I wouldn't be so sure. From Jim, is Poseidon a game changer? Yes, it is. I actually had an email from somebody who is, somebody who has knowledge about these things. And this person thinks that Poseidon is an even bigger changer,

a much bigger changer than the Buddha Besnik is. So apparently it's untrackable and effectively indestructible. And there is no obvious counter to it. Jungle Jin says Trump will not be prosecuted for actions as president, as the SCOTUS has given blanket indemnity to presidential actions. Well, there you go. Jamila says the United States is a leader in killing Christians around the world, world, but now Trump cares about Nigeria. Please speak about it. Thank you, Alexander, and Alex.

Well, I think we need to discuss the whole situation in Africa altogether, but you're absolutely correct about this. I mean, in the sense that the United States has this unbelievably selective approach to human rights violations. So Christian communities across the Middle East, as we know, have been absolutely annihilated. They've been destroyed. In Iraq, for example, the Assyrian church. I mean, it's been driven out of existence. Nobody seems to care. Suddenly, we discover the plight of Christians in Nigeria.

We discover persecution of Christians when it suits us. Mr. J-4616 says, this is the equivalent of seeing my favorite cartoon character and another cartoon that I liked as a kid. Thanks, you all. Thank you. Let's see. Nikos says, and since you are talking about China today,

Since you're talking about China today, they and India are hypocrites. They play it tough now while the condemned the SMO and stopped buying oil. Well, I don't think they have stopped buying oil. First of all, I mean, we're talking about China. China and Russia just had a major economic summit. Of course, it's received absolutely no attention. You get anonymous comments appearing in Bloomberg about have Chinese rules. refiners are not buying Russian oil and the meeting between the Russian Prime Minister in Beijing,

leading a huge economic delegation and the Chinese president Xi Jinping, that gets no attention at all. I mean, it's a good example, if you like, of the extraordinarily distorted news flow that, as I said, these anonymous things from who knows whom get attention. and, you know, a major economic summit gets none. Anyway, over the course of this meeting between Xi Jinping and Mishustin, they agreed that they would enhance and accelerate cooperation, including specifically in energy. So I don't think China is stopping purchases of Russian oil.

I think on the contrary, it's more likely over time to ramp them up. As for India, I think they're more vulnerable. And I think that they are doing all kinds of maneuvers. But the Indian Oil Corporation, which is a state-owned entity, has, in fact, bought oil from Russia. It's done advanced contracts buying oil from Russia in December, which is after the Luke oil, Rosnev sanctions come into play. So it looks as if India is going to continue to buy Russian oil also.

And there's been a whole slew of announcements in Russia and India about new economic and industrial deals between India and Russia. And of course, Putin is going to India in a few weeks time. Sir Mugge's game says, after seriously pissing off 800 officers, Trump wants to launch a military operation. I'm sure his plans have been leaked to everyone everywhere. I wouldn't be surprised. I'm sure you're right, actually. Yeah. Samuel Maroni says, does Russia have rare earths?

Yes. Has it an industry? Yes. Of course, in the Soviet times, it absolutely did. It had to. My understanding is that it's been massively run down, like much else, after the Soviet Union collapsed. They now have a program to revive it.

We'll see what comes. All right. Fuzzy Ball says you don't have to read my my last super chat joke. Let me find that super chat. Let's see pause one second. Asareal says, I disagree Asimov's node as well as most historical academics. The deal in cycles will attest to. It's not predictive or psychological. It's just what it is. Cycles. Even the Bible quotes, nothing new under the sun. Oh, sure enough. Nothing you under the sun indeed. But as I said, where I think people can sometimes go wrong is if they make it a little bit too much,

like a sort of statistical science. And there I think you need to be a little careful. But that's not what Professor Tsang does, by the way, just to make that clear. Klaus says, the Russians fear of false flag where the Ukrainians, together with NATO, are creating a new Chernobyl in Saaporoche. What do you think? I think that's absolutely right. But the Russians have been extremely on top of the possibility of force flags from very early on in the special military operation.

They warned about them many times. Nico says, who would have thought we'll have a communist mayor in New York? But instead of the hammer and sickle, he wears pride flag like a true neo-Marxist. Well, he can't be a communist because he also says that he's a Muslim and Islam and communism, at least of the Marxist-Leninist variety, are completely incompatible with. each other. I simply make this point because I think we should be, we should use words like communist and indeed Marxist. I think we should use them correctly. He is a socialist of an extremely threadbare kind as far as I'm concerned. Having, as I said, once being that myself, I shouldn't know. He's a rapper too. He's a rapper as well, exactly.

I mean, he's clearly a leftist. I mean, of that there is no dispute at all. But, I mean, he's the kind of leftism that he's going to engage in is going to be absolutely chaotic, that's really destructive. And it's going to discredit leftism even further in the United States, including amongst the people of New York, just as a say. Monty 1054 says, yes, the American military industrial complex is corrupt, but why is that so?

is it because it's become the American rentier class's main cash cow? Yes, I think so. I think also there is something else. And here I'm going to say something, which I suspect some people might disagree with. But I think that another reason is that the American military industrial complex was grafted onto an American polity. That really wasn't structured for it.

I mean, America was not about an early 20th century America was not about having military industrial complexes or even large militaries. I mean, if you go back into the early 19th century, they were all about militias in those days.

So America has never really had the culture to do big arms production on a continuous basis, not just, you know, for war like the Second World War, but, you know, as an institution of the United States, a permanent institution of the United States. That was never really what it was shaped for. First of you balls, I think I found the chat that you're referring to. It's the one with Dick Cheney. Okay, I want, I will pass over that chat. And it is a,

there's a good, good joke. Let's see. John Ski says, if Taiwan belongs to China, then Cuba belongs to the USA, the Falklands belong to Argentina, and Cyprus belongs to Turkey. Well, I'm not going to get into a discussion of this, but why do you say that? I mean, when has Cuba ever been part of the USA? I mean, when has Falklands? I mean, I'm not sure about Falklands. I'm not going to get into that. But Cuba has never, as far as I know, been a part of the U.S.

say until the 1890s, Taiwan was absolutely part of China. And I did think that that was, that's contested actually. And the government of Taiwan still claims by the way officially that it is the actual government of China. Just so. Got Gant to 420. Thank you for that super chat. John Ski says Cheney and McCain are embracing in the underworld. probably iranian kiddo says macedonia garrison was stationed there for a few years and athens permanently lost its navy and had to return samos to the exiled samans you're completely right you have a profound knowledge of ancient history i said this before iranian kiddo i'm very i am very very impressed as somebody who was brought up in it i am extremely impressed nico says what do you think is the solution do you think with his recent interviews and actions president putton is respected again will this will the dissent continue i think he's always been respected um as i said i mean any political system that has the ability to conduct dissent to

have a conversation with itself and even an argument and then come to a consensus and a decision is a healthy system. A system where everybody is obliged to always to agree with everybody is a system that is certain to decay. I don't think this should be taken as a sign of crisis. It's a sign on the contrary.

The government in Moscow works an awful lot better than government in any Western country at the present time. Jungle Jin says, speaking of Africa, Biafra is re-emerging as a major issue in Nigeria.

Interesting. Vincent says, Alexander, how would you rate the quality of life in London now? I have never been and I'm trying to determine whether it is some sort of dystopian globalist future or actually a cool city. Thanks. But I have seen some of the reports about London, which I think do greatly exaggerate the situation here. I mean, this is not a dystopian place. I mean, it is not the hellhole that some people are saying.

I mean, mostly, it remains a great city with tremendous things that happen, and most parts of it are safe and things of that kind. And I do want to say that. I mean, it's still a great city. It is got accumulating problems, including social problems, which are getting worse and worse, and which are not being managed properly. but it is certainly a place which I still believe it is worth visiting and seeing, and one should come here without fear. Iranian Kido says Athens became so powerful as a direct result of the Persian wars. It was in fact during this time in the 5th century BC

when a collective Greek identity was developed among city-states to counter Persia. Correct. Entirely true. Sir Mug's game says Trump is America's Zelensky, TV actor elected for peace but winds up extorting friend and foe for money, money, money, two peas at a pod. Unfortunately, unfortunately, those parallels have some weight behind them

that you're making. Chunky Monkey says, why did Ukraine's terrorist attacks stop? Have they? Have they stopped? I mean, I'm not aware that they've stopped. As far as I'm aware, they continue just about two weeks ago.

Zelensky gave instructions that they should be I mean, what might have changed is that the Russians might be more successful in countering them. And I have heard reports about this, but I don't get the sense that there's been any changing policy or direction on the part of Ukraine, or it is the Zelensky government. Iranian Kido says taxes collected from city-state made Athens extremely wealthy. Parthenon was largely built using funds collected from other Greek city-state. for mutual defense against Persia correct

Nikos says I do research in Grogh like the multipolar superpowers I found out that Greece is the sixth most stressed and depressed nation in 2025 how do we live oh dear well I haven't been to Greece for two years now I think it's it better than me I suppose how do we live it's a good question Nicos Sir Mugge's game says, hey, Orban, hey, Orban, you should have known that the wheels on, the bus go round and round and round and round. Well, I have to say, one of the most ruthless and cynical things that I've seen over the last couple of weeks is this way, which Trump has thrown Orban under a bus. I mean, it's, it's, it opposed me, actually. They'll be meeting in D.C. and Trump will flip-flop to a different position and then he'll flip-flop.

Exactly, exactly. But Orban must now know that he cannot trust Trump. Exactly, exactly. Gantel 420 says, thanks for covering the financial side of the wars. It's all extremely interesting. Give Ghanzo for that. Sir Mug's game says, has anyone seen Mandami and Jolani in the same room? Interesting question.

Buzzy Ball says Lindsay Graham is 2025's Dick Cheney. Yeah. True. Very true. Sir Mug's game says in the finale, this says it all. All right. Apotein Pavolina and Al-Apottin Pactan. All right.

Thank you for that. Iranian kiddo says Poseidon, the great God, mover of the earth, and the deep unharvested sea O shaker of the earth Tamer of the horses Savior of the ships the girdler of the earth

O blessed one do thou befriend the mariners Absolutely one of the most powerful of all the gods And well A Poseidon earth shaker Exactly as you say Matthew says God of earthquakes as well by the way

A beautiful temple in Sunio Oh absolutely yes beautiful place to visit. Matthew says, will this all stop short of nuclear war? Will this have to be short? I agree with Professor Chang here. I think that in the end, people will draw back, governments will draw back and they will avoid doing it. At least the great powers will avoid doing it. And I firmly remain at the view that within the militaries, including the U.S. military, rational people continue to be in charge of nuclear weapons. I mean, there's some very unbalanced people within the American military today.

But the people who are responsible for nuclear weapons, whom I have heard and seen, strike me as being extremely clever, intelligent, wise people. Jay Basin says, does Zelensky actually know what is happening on the battlefield, or is he deliberately misleading the West and the people of Ukraine? His comment about 60 Russian soldiers was breathing for, for I. Absolutely. It was an extraordinary statement, actually. I think there's a bit of both in this. I think he is obviously misleading everybody.

I mean, that is, shall we say, 80% of it. But I think 20% is delusion as well. The writing is on the wall, but he doesn't want to read it. So he closes his eyes and fantasizes as well. But 80% of it is deception. Never forget he's an actor. He's an actor and he's misleading people. But he's also starting to believe his role.

his own lies. That puts it very well. Julian Smith says, Alexander, are you able to clarify why Mamdani cannot be both Muslim and Marxist, communist? Because the two are completely incompatible. Marxism is a materialistic

ideology that denies the existence of the supernatural and ultimately goal. So how can you be a Marxist and a Muslim at the same time? I know many people try, but anybody who has a proper understanding of Marxism, and by the way, I should say I studied Marxism, and I've had many friends who've been Marxists,

and I've actually known absolutely real genuine communists. Anyway, I can tell you for an absolute fact that their perspective is a purely and completely materialistic one. Nikos says, and Alex, when you are in Greece, come in Haidari, sit in Polataki so I can come and say hello to you in person. We can greet Alexander together. Absolutely. Consider it done, Nikos. Consider it done. Eradian kiddo says during the Mycenaean era, Poseidon was the most supreme deity in parts of the Peloponnese, even more important than Zeus, particularly in Thebes, Pilos, and Arcadia based on linear B tablets found there. You are absolutely right again. And I should know. Because, again, because of my aunt, who was Minister of Culture, I got to know an awful lot of the Greek archaeologists.

And I remember them telling me exactly this. And Iranian-Kito says Arcadia in Central Peloponnese is where God, Poseidon's cult lived. And they believed Poseidon was born there. A cult of Despina was also in Arcadia. Despina was the epitaph that they used for Persephone, of Zeus and Dimitir, nice niece and wife of Poseidon. Absolutely. Well, can I just say Arcadia, you're right about all of that.

And Arcadia is as beautiful, the landscape there is as beautiful as people imagine it to be. It is really extraordinary. It's perhaps the place in Greece that I find the most lovely. Fuzzy Ball says, if one day you hear the Europeans praise me, know that I have. have betrayed you. Samora, Michelle, former president of Mozambique. Wow. Monti 1054 says, how do you see the Europeans reacting to Russia reaching Odessa? Will they really get involved militarily themselves? Will Europe really collapse? We will see. But if they do decide to intervene, it would not surprise me. I think if it was up to Emmanuel Mac wrong, he would definitely do it.

Philip Heneer, thank you for that super chat. Elza says, Alex, you said that stealing Russian assets scares investors, but isn't freezing the, isn't the freezing already a reason not to invest in the EU? Well, yes. But actually seizing it is a further step beyond that. And if you start doing that, if you are actually confiscating outright stealing people's assets, then that is, a further crossing of an even brighter red line. And I think that will shake and alarm people around the world. Apparently, Saudi Arabia is constantly telling the Europeans don't even think of doing this thing. And it is having an effect, apparently.

I mean, it's one of the reasons why France, which is many Saudi investments, has up to now opposed this thing. Iranian kiddo says theory is that the Dorians migrated south to the Peloponnese and the late Bronze Age led to the Greek dark age. Mountainous Arcadia held out against the Spartans who were of Dorian origin. They preserved their Mycenaan culture for longer. Yes, there is a lot. Here I have to say there is a lot of argument and debate amongst the archaeologists about, what really did take place and whether there ever was a Dorian invasion.

I'm not going to pretend I know this, so I'm going to give a vast of this part for your discussion. And Iranian-Kito says Cypriot Greek dialect is believed to be closely related to ancient arcadian dialect. Yes, I've heard that too. It's a particularly ancient dialect, very ancient indeed. And on that note, Alexander, I think we've got all the questions answered, and that was a great live stream. Absolutely.

It was a phenomenal live stream and what an erudite one and a different for the ones we do but also very closely related to the kind of discussions we have. Absolutely. All right. So I have

Professor Jang's information in the description box down below. I will also add his channel information as a pinned comment. I definitely recommend everyone follow predictive history, which is a fantastic channel. Thank you to everyone that watched us on Odyssey, on Rockfin, Rumble, YouTube, and a big shout out to our locals community, the duran.locals.com.

You can also find us on substack as well. Alexander is writing articles exclusive to substack and to locals. So definitely check out those articles. from Alexander hopefully I can also put together some articles in the future but all the videos also go up on both those those communities so that's it we should get back to work Alexander and put out some videos huh thank you to our moderators as well by the way thank you to Harry and Zareel and Peter and reckless abandon as Well, I think I got to the moderators for today.

I hope I got all the moderators for today. For some reason, my chat is not scrolling, so I can't see everybody in the moderator list. Let's put up some videos, Alexander. Indeed, indeed, sir. One more, one more, two more, two more. From Sir Mugg's game, to be fair to Trump. I think he always pulls the rug from under Rear Admiral Lindsey Graham. Thank you for your service, Senator.

And Durrani and Kido says, coincidentally, the first Hellenic Polytheus temple in 1700 years opened in Arcadia. Just this past March, this news truly made me happy. Oh, goodness. Look, I didn't know. I didn't know about this. And Alexander Durge says time flies. Yes, it does. It certainly does.

And from Iranian-Kito, the Dorian invasion theory is now dismissed, but historians now believe. leave Dorians simply settled there. Right, okay. I'm not an expert on this at all. That is too much, too close to archaeology and not close enough to the kind of literary records-based history with which I'm more familiar. All right.

Thank you, everybody. Take care.