The Duran Podcast - Pressuring ECOWAS to intervene in Niger

Episode Date: August 17, 2023

Pressuring ECOWAS to intervene in Niger

All right, Alexander, let's do an update on what is going on in Niger. We have the ECOWAS countries, which are debating about a possible intervention into Niger. We have the EU. It seems like the EU is trying to push the ECOWAS countries into some sort of intervention and invasion. In Niger, they are also talking about placing a whole ton of sanctions. on Niger as well. And then you have the U.S. State Department and messages from Blinken, also encouraging the ECOWAS countries to handle the crisis in Niger. Meanwhile, in Niger, you have the military junta, the coup government, is standing its grounds, its defiant, and it is not willing to back down from its position. It's actually now saying that they're going to

bring treason charges against the deposed president, Bazoum. So that is the latest from the military coup government in Niger. So we're heading towards a standoff. Yes. We're going to see what happens. Is ECOWAS going to enter Niger or are we going to try and solve this via diplomatic means? Well, the short answer to this is that we don't know what's going to happen, but it's quite clear that the attempt to pressure ECOWAS into intervention in Niger is now running into problems. There's clearly a lot of disagreement within the ECOWAS states about whether or not to intervene militarily in Niger to try to restore the former president. There are apparently disagreements between some of the ECOWAS states.

It's not clear which are objecting and which are proposed. an intervention, but we also know that there are disagreements within some of the ECOWAS states themselves. So Nigeria, which had been expected at one point to take the lead in this intervention alongside Senegal, apparently this growing opposition in Nigeria, including from the Nigerian President's own party to this whole idea. The Nigerian Senate has voted against it. There's been protests against it in Nigeria. There are protests about this in Ghana as well. So it's proving very difficult to get ECOWAS to intervene.

And there was supposed to be today a meeting of ECOWAS chiefs of staff. These were the military leaders of the ECOWAS states. This was after an ECOWAS summit, which seemed to have given the green light to intervention. Anyway, there was supposed to be a meeting today of the military leaders. That's been postponed indefinitely. because since the previous ECOWAS meeting, which seemed to be moving towards an intervention, apparently the doubts have grown,

and as a result, we haven't seen this intervention take place or a plan for this intervention appear. So I'm going to make a suggestion. I think what is happening in West Africa is that all this pressure, and you're absolutely right to highlight, all this pressure from the French,

from the Europeans, from the Americans, for ECOWAS, in effect, to go into Niger, to do the West's dirty work for it so that the West doesn't have to intervene itself and, you know, be accused thereby of engaging in neo-colonialism and neo-imperialism in an African country. All this pressure on ECOWAS is actually feeding down. amongst a lot of people in ECOWAS. They're saying, why should we do the West's dirty work for them? Why should we collude in the West's near colonial enterprise? And that quite plausibly is one reason why opposition within ECOWAS is growing.

Now, you're quite right to refer to the regime in Niger as a hunter. but bear in mind it's a hunter which has apparently popular support there's been one opinion poll published in the West by the way which says that 73% of the people polled in Niger support the Hunter the president himself that's been overthrown is apparently a deeply unpopular figure I suspect the treason charges that have been brought against him are connected with the fact that he's been quietly supporting

intervention, outside intervention, to restore him to power. So it might not be a completely groundless charge. And beyond that, and on top of that, the junta, the military, are apparently succeeding in finding technocrats within Nijer, who are prepared to form a civilian government.

So with every day that passes, with ECOWAS failing to intervene, the coup government is starting to consolidate and gain greater stability. And despite all the sanctions, its support within Niger appears to be solid. The pressure to intervene is coming from the West. They've been trying to use ECOWAS as their tool in Niger, and that's causing ECOWAS itself to rebel. This is far from over.

We still don't know quite what's going to work out. But I'm going to make a guess if the coup government is still in power two weeks from now at the end of August, then it's likely that the moment of greatest danger in terms of an intervention has passed. Yeah, the coup government, and it is a coup government, it is a junta. They do have something like 70, I think it was, 7. 73 or 78% support according to the economist. Yeah. It's not according to their polling.

This is, you know, Western neocon media figures. Yes. They are putting together a technocrat administrative government. They've got a prime minister, I believe, in place, and they're putting together other high-level positions in place as well to run the government. You have ECOWAS. they, as you correctly say, they are starting to cool off to the idea of intervention, and they are saying that, you know, why should we do the dirty work of the collective

West? Obviously, the collective West is trying to push us into some sort of intervention and conflict in Niger, which puts at risk the entire safety and security of West Africa. This thing could spiral out of control and could lead to a much wider conflict throughout West Africa. So why should they do the bidding of France and the United States, which leads me to my question, which is, if the U.S., if Blinken and if Macron are unable to get ECOWAS to go into Niger, what are the chances that France or the U.S. are just going to do it? I think they remain pretty high. Now, can I just say, before we leave the

subject of ECOWAS that once upon the time the United States and France knew how to do this kind of thing much better using African states to police other African states. They'd have done it. They'd have been urging the African states they wanted to manipulate to do this kind of thing in a much more discreet and private way. There would have been no doubt, and I'm going to be quite straightforward about this. There would have been bribes paid and threats made, but it would all had been done behind the curtain. So if ECOWAS did intervene, had intervened, it would have looked as if this was entirely ECOWAS

acting on its own initiative. What instead happened is we had Victoria Newland travelling to Niger, talking directly to the military leaders there, not the actual head of the military, but other officials there. We had Blinken, telephoning and speaking to the overthrown president. We've had Macron making all kinds of statements and comments of that kind.

And of course that's made it very difficult for people around the world and in Africa and amongst ECOWAS to deny that the West is in fact directly implicated in what is going on and is trying to basically pressure ECOWAS into taking these doubts. And of course, the sanctions that the EU is resorting to, its default response to any problem nowadays, that isn't helping either. I mean, it's undermining the case for an ECOWAS intervention. It's making it too obvious to too many people

that this is the West trying to use ECOWAS as a tool. So just to say that, again, we see that the NERCONs aren't actually good at diplomacy. they don't have the skills that the US used to have back in the old days of the 50s and 60s when they were able to manipulate things behind the scenes far more effectively than they do now. That's the first thing to say.

Having said that, the fact that the Western powers have tried to take all of these various steps confirms a point we've made before in a previous programme. Nijer, with its strategic position, with its French and American bases, its very large uranium resources, deposits, its very, very large deposits of minerals, is too valuable for the West simply to give up.

And despite the huge embarrassment and pushback across Africa, if we were to see a direct Western intervention to restore the coup government, to restore, sorry, the civilian government, the overthrowing president in Niger, I have to say that given the kind of people we're talking about, Newland, Blinken, Macron himself, by the way,

I think that there is still a very, very real possibility that despite all the embarrassments and problems involved in a direct intervention, they might do it despite all the denials that we're seeing come from them. Final question before we wrap this up. How do you think the Jake Sullivan's of the Biden White House are considering a possible U.S. intervention in Nizier? Because, you know, everything has to be seen now. As far as the U.S. is concerned, everything has to be seen through the lens of the election. Do you think Jake Sullivan is saying, and I'm just saying Jake Sullivan because he's the campaign guy in the Biden White House, let's say all the people in and around Biden or the Democrat Party that are concerned about his reelection?

Do you think these people are saying, you know, let's go through with the U.S. intervention in Niger. We'll position it as Biden being strong and Biden removing a coup government and restoring democracy, and that's how we'll get our media cronies to report on this story. Or do you think they're saying let's not go through with an intervention in Niger because, you know, There may be forces in the United States, but there may be people in the United States that will spin this into some sort of U.S. imperialist activity against Africa. I mean, how do you think they're trying to formulate this Niger, a possible Niger intervention or a possible non-intervention in Niger through the lens of the 2024 campaign? Yeah, I mean, the argument, the very compelling argument against an intervention from a U.S. point of view is that it might end up in another debacle. It might spread chaos and war across

West Africa, destabilise other African governments create all kinds of problems which the United States doesn't need. The problem is I don't think Sullivan and people like him actually think that's going to happen or that there's any risk of that happening. I don't think they're paying much attention to intelligence assessments about the situation in West Africa. I do think the intelligence assessments are probably telling them very much anyway because I doubt that the United States, or indeed France, knows a great deal about, knows very much about what is actually happening in West Africa. And I think that Sullivan and the others probably think that the military intervention by the US in Asia would be a walk in the park.

they might probably be saying to themselves Niger's military is hardly up to the standard of the militaries of the United States say France if France also became involved that they'd be in the capital within a few hours of days

that the people in Niger would undoubtedly come round and accept whatever new government we imposed on them and it's not inconceivable that Sullivan himself and people around him might say, well, look, we've got all these troubles in Ukraine. This is our perfect opportunity. We can intervene in Niger.

We can show that we are strong. We can push the Russians back. We can spin this as a great victory in the US. A huge foreign policy success for Briden. We restored democracy. We defeated the Wagner-backed pro-Russian. military who were taking power there, we defeated one of Putin's nefarious schemes in West Africa. From their point of view, it would be the perfect whack the dog-mug-me-moment moment.

You know you've filmed one I'm referring to. I can see that's how they might see that. I think that is the most likely way that they would perceive this thing. Now, I don't think that that is how it will turn out, I think, more likely than not. Perhaps after an interval, we would see growing instability in West Africa as a result of a Western intervention. I think we would see huge opposition from African states to a Western intervention. I think all of those things would be the real outcome of a Western intervention. Niger. But I'm not convinced that Sullivan and company understand that. And I'm very, very much

afraid that they might see it instead, you know, as the perfect opportunity, as in Wag the Dog, to spin up foreign policy success out of what they probably think will be a very simple military operation indeed. All right, we will leave the video there. The durand.locals.com. We are on Rumble Odyssey, butchutes. Telegram and Rock Finn. Go to the Duran shop, 10% off. Use the code. Good day. Take care.