The Duran Podcast - Prigozhin plane crash, domestic and external actors

Episode Date: August 24, 2023

Prigozhin plane crash, domestic and external actors ...

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 All right, Alexander, let's do a video on the Progosian plane crash. So my first question is a simple one to you. Has there been an official statement from the Russian authorities at the time of this recording? Not that I'm aware of. I mean, I understand that they've retrieved bodies. They seem to believe that he is one of the people who is amongst the bodies. There is a list of the people who were on the plane. and his name is amongst them.
Starting point is 00:00:31 But as I understand it, there's going to be tests, stunned DNA tests, and I suspect they will wait until those tests have been completed. And that will confirm whether or not he is one of the people who died in this crash. Now, I have to say, I would be astonished after all we heard. He was not. There has incidentally been one previous occasion when a plane crashed in Africa,
Starting point is 00:00:59 and there were rumours of reports that he was on board and that turned out to be wrong. But this is in Russia. I would personally be incredulous if he was still alive and if he was not on this plane. Of course, the other thing we don't yet have is any indication of what caused the crash
Starting point is 00:01:17 from the Russian authorities either. They're obviously investigating, but again, we're getting dribbles of reports and they give us some idea of what the Russian investigators are looking. into. Okay. Second simple question is, does this, and I think this is probably one of the more important questions to ask, big picture, big picture question, is does this incident affect the special military operation or the conflict in Ukraine, not either side, in a positive or negative way? Or do you
Starting point is 00:01:50 think this is something that will just fade away and will not affect the actual trajectory of the conflict? I'm going to I mean this is a very unpredictable and volatile situation and I mean there's some suggestions that some people within the Wagner organisation are very angry and that they're already making accusations that some people
Starting point is 00:02:10 in Russia were responsible for this and you know that might cause some security issues but I'm going to express my own opinion here putting that aside which if it happens I'm pretty sure the Russian security for forces will be able to deal with it. I would have thought that it actually, if anything,
Starting point is 00:02:33 works slightly more to the advantage of the Russians. In that Pryogsian was a loose cannon, the Russian authorities were having to keep constant watch on what he was doing. There was uncertainty as to what his whereabouts were and about what his intentions were, removing him from the scene, removes a complex player from the scene, complicated from a Russian point of view, it simplifies things from their point of view. They can now focus on the special military operation. And in that one relatively minor sense, it benefits them. However, overall, I don't think it's going to make any significant difference.
Starting point is 00:03:18 Remember, when there was the mutiny or attempted coup back in June, June, nothing changed on the front lines. There was no breakdown in the Russian defences. The Russian troops continue to do their job. I cannot see why Pregozhen's death, which is a less serious event from a Russian state point of view, is going to make any difference in the way that the Russian military conducts operations. And as for Ukraine, I can't remotely see what benefit they would get from this. I don't see how overall changes the picture. at all. So slightly, for a political aspect, it makes the Russian authorities, perhaps it gives them less to think and worry about, with the caveat, that there might be some angry Wagner people that
Starting point is 00:04:08 they need to deal with. But overall, it'll make little difference. Okay, so let's get into perhaps the most talked about narrative of this plane crash, which is who was behind it or what was behind it. Of course, it could be an accident. We can't discount that that this was an accident. But most likely this was some sort of sabotage or some sort of terrorist act or something along those lines. I mean, that would be my guess, but, you know, I don't know.
Starting point is 00:04:42 That's how it looks like to me. But what are your thoughts? I mean, there's a lot of, you know, there's a lot of different actors involved in what, what was going on in and around progocean, state actors, oligarchs, maybe even internal disputes. You know, he was a very high-profile individual. Some people called him a hero. Some people call him a traitor. To some people, he was a friend, to other people he was an enemy. What are your thoughts who, I mean, let's start here. The Collective West and the mainstream media,
Starting point is 00:05:19 they already know who did it. They knew who did it. The first, you know, a couple of minutes of when the news broke is Putin. Putin did. And I think that's the, that's the lazy, it's, it's the easy answer. And maybe, and maybe the Russian government did do it. But I think that's, that's the easy, lazy answer to, to, to come out with. I don't think that's the case, but I could be wrong. The timing during bricks and the fact that pilots were involved and this was in Russia, I don't think that the Russian government would be this sloppy. But, you know, you said yesterday in a live stream on locals, we shouldn't discount anybody or anything when it comes to the story, and we may never even know who did this and the investigation is being carried out. But what are
Starting point is 00:06:10 your thoughts? Right. I think the first thing to say, and it's an important thing to say, is that all those people in the West who are pointing the finger of Putin and saying conclusively he did it, it was him, there was the Russian government, they murdered Brigodian, they got him out of the way. Well, of course, they're guessing
Starting point is 00:06:29 because nobody, except perhaps a very few people who were directly involved and perhaps some investigators know how it happened. So I think that's an important first thing to say. So, you know, I don't know. We don't know. We can make some very informed guesses, but they are guesses. And the fundamental difference between us and all those people in the
Starting point is 00:06:58 Western media could say, it's Putin. And, you know, President Biden apparently is also sort of pointing the finger at Putin, is that we admit to the fact that we're guessing, even if we make shrewd guesses, they are not. They are saying things as if they know, which of course, unless they were involved in some way, which we will come to shortly, they cannot know. So that's, I think, the first thing to say. Now, let's go over these things. First of all, I personally do not think it was an accident. I mean, I think that given who we're talking about, Brigosian and his background and his backstory and all the things that have happened around him. I also think that this was probably, almost certainly, a murder and a successful one.
Starting point is 00:07:52 But can I say that we cannot entirely and completely exclude the possibility of an accident. This is apparently an old business check. It was not being serviced properly because of the sanctions. Brigodgian was somebody who liked to take risks or whatever else he was, he was a very brave man, perhaps a recklessly brave man, the people around him who were on this airplane with him who were basically the command leadership of Wagner,
Starting point is 00:08:25 they also are people who were perhaps recklessly brave, they might have been flying this plane when it was no longer safe and some of the reports, some people are saying are consistent with a plane crashing which hasn't been maintained and serviced properly
Starting point is 00:08:44 I don't personally think that's the reason but we can't say at this moment in time that that is not what happened now let's put that possibility aside however just keep it in the background it's possible but let's put it aside
Starting point is 00:09:00 let's assume that it was a murder. Now, there's two things to say. There are two possible groups of people who might have been involved. There are those who are domestic within Russia and there are those who are external to Russia. And I think we should remember that there are possible reasons, motives, both within Russia, why people within Russia might have done this, and people out of outside Russia who might have done this. Now, let's talk about the obvious one.
Starting point is 00:09:40 The one not the obvious one, the one that people in the West are talking about, Putin, the Russian government, those people. Now, I don't think we can exclude this possibility. As I said, Brigodion was unpredictable, unstable person. He led a attempted insurrection against the Russian government in June. he'd actually sent troops marching towards Moscow.
Starting point is 00:10:08 He'd acted to seize control of the headquarters of the Russian army, which is conducting the special military operation in the Rostov-on-Don. He'd made all kinds of threats against Shoygu, the defence minister, Gerassim of the chief of the general staff. He'd run a very public feud against the leadership of the defence ministry. he'd said unbelievably critical things against the leadership of the defence ministry, basically accusing them of corruption, of treason, all those sort of things. And he had also made very derogatory comments about units of the Russian armed forces.
Starting point is 00:10:52 So he'd made a lot of enemies within the Russian political and state structures. And of course, he had directly challenged the authority. of the president of Russia, of Putin himself. Now, you go through Russian history, believe it or not, there are lots of examples of irregular forces operating with the Russian army. They carry out eventually interactions against the Russian army. There were examples under Peter the Great's father, Alexei Mikhailovich, the Tsar at that time, the 17th century.
Starting point is 00:11:30 this is the uprising of Stenkerazin. Peter the Great had to face this with Mazepa, who was the chief of the Zaporogian Cossacks. Catherine the Great had to face this with Pugachov in the late 18th century. There were fewer incidents of this kind in the 19th century. But the consistent story, whenever these kind of uprisings took place, is that the Russian authorities eventually,
Starting point is 00:12:00 Eventually, when they gained control, acted with extreme ruthlessness in putting down these insurrections whenever they happen. So this is not, if it was the Russian authorities, all I'm saying is it would not be a unique instance in Russian history. And if you want to join up dots, and I'm going to just go through this, but I want to say that I don't think personally that the dots should be done. joined up in this way. But if you want to join up the dots, there might be some recent events which might point to things. There was a meeting between Pregozhen and Putin and the heads of the Wagner organisation back in July. And it was clearly an attempt by Putin to try to win over the commanders of the Wagner organisation and to break Pregozhen's hold over them. And Pregozhen intervened and he basically sabotaged the meeting
Starting point is 00:13:02 and it could be that after that there was a decision made that this was impossible we can't really resolve this Brigodian retains his hold over Wagner we can't have this uncontrolled armed militia floating around some kind of decision needs to be made then a few days ago
Starting point is 00:13:21 Putin visited the chief of the military headquarters in Rostov-on-don same place where which Pregozhen and his men captured back in June and he had some kind of conference there with the military leaders. We don't know very much about it. There's not even been photos of that conference circulated, which is unusual. Then a couple of days ago we heard the Sura Viken
Starting point is 00:13:47 who was the head of the Russian aerospace forces, important military commander, one said to be sympathetic to Progogian those reports also by the way unconfirmed that he has been dismissed so you could say that Putin had this meeting with pregolshin the meeting didn't go well the Ravagnar commander's remained loyal to him he an investigation continued since june they were looking into what happened during the uprising in june they came to a decision that Brigodgian had to be removed from the scene in the way that those people
Starting point is 00:14:30 that I talked about who rebelled against previous Tsars were removed from the scene putting him through a trial process would be embarrassing and difficult and potentially dangerous so they clear the decks they conferred with the military leaders
Starting point is 00:14:45 Putin went to confirm with the military leaders Suroviki the one general who is seen as somehow sympathetic to Pregogeon was removed from the scene and then the thing was done. I don't believe this. I want to say that.
Starting point is 00:15:01 I just wanted to set out how you could perhaps create, not a case because it's not a case, but something that you might lead you to certain conclusions which might cause you to ask questions. I don't believe it.
Starting point is 00:15:18 And the reason I don't believe it is the following. First of all, I don't think precoction represented any kind of threat to the Putin government. That is the first thing to say. The second thing to say is, just like yourself, I think having an incident like this in the middle of the BRICS summit makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.
Starting point is 00:15:40 The very last thing you would have thought that Putin would want is to remind everybody all the BRICS leaders of the Brigodian affair. So, I mean, it's something that he would not want to see happen at this time. The third reason and the one which I think to me actually settles the issue is that, of course, on that plane was Brigodzian, the other Wagner people, but also the pilots, the people who are operating the plane. You know, it's commonplace in the West to see Putin as this utterly ruthless man, a complete killer, a man who's absolutely. callous, all that kind of thing. I think Putin can be pretty tough and pretty ruthless when he has to be, as all political leaders who lead big countries have to be,
Starting point is 00:16:40 and we're going to discuss what the West does in these situations later. But I don't think he's the sort of person. In fact, I can say quite certainly that he's the kind of person who would be inconceivable to me that he would simply set aside, arrange the murder of completely innocent Russians. When there are such more straightforward and easy ways of getting pregogion off the scene if a decision was made to dispose of him. So, you know, he's, pregogion is going to Africa.
Starting point is 00:17:16 He made a video which is supposed to have been made by him in Africa. you know, lure him to some place like Niger or Chad or the Central African Republic, find somebody to shoot him there, happens, kill him in that kind of a way, blame it on the jihadis. It seems to me that would not involve the murder of people in Russia and it would avoid any kind of embarrassment for the Russian government of the kind of would have seen if a plane had been brought down in this kind of way. And all of that makes me think it most unlikely
Starting point is 00:17:58 that Putin or the Russian government was involved. So I set out certain circumstantial facts, which you could put together to come to a conclusion. But I've thought about it long and heart, and I've also said why I don't think it was the case. Okay, so other possibilities. Let me lead you to some of them. come up.
Starting point is 00:18:23 S.B.U. CIA or some other Western three-letter agency, maybe a combination of both. Like what allegedly took place in Nord Stream? I mean, you know, the New York Times said the SBA or Ukraine did Nord Stream. That's what the New York Times tells us. So if they could do Nord Stream,
Starting point is 00:18:42 they could obviously take down a private jet as well. Budanov also talked about terrorist acts. So you have SBU, Ukraine, three-letter agencies, in the West. Maybe oligarchs in and around Progoshan. Progossion was a wealthy man. Maybe there were some dispute there. Maybe the oligarchs who were, maybe the oligarchs were orchestrated or were behind
Starting point is 00:19:05 some of the events that took place during the mutiny. Maybe they did it. Maybe internal fighting within Wagner, a power struggle or something along those lights. It happens. It happens in companies. It happens in organizations where you have power struggles. and sometimes people do horrible things. And then, of course, you have the real, I guess you could call it a conspiracy theory
Starting point is 00:19:30 or the theory that's a little bit out there, which is that this was a staged event. Then Progoshan is somewhere in, I don't know, Turkey or something, getting a new face and new everything. And, you know, that's, I mean, look, all I'm saying is that these are some of the possibilities that are being floated out there. I'm sure I've missed some as well. But what are your thoughts on? some of the other possibilities that are being talked about.
Starting point is 00:19:54 Can I start with the last one that you floated, which sounds bizarre, but with pregogne, nothing is? I mean, remember, he is a person with an extraordinary background. If he wanted to disappear and stage his own death, it's difficult to imagine anybody in the world who would have more ability and more capacity to do it and would be in a better position to arrange. all the pieces. I don't myself think that. I really don't think that at all. But, you know,
Starting point is 00:20:28 stranger things have happened. And with progogion, nothing can be excluded. I am sure. Remember the photos that they found in his place with all the different identities? Exactly. Yeah. You know, exactly. Exactly. I mean, this is a man who lived, you know, to put it mildly on the wild side. And, you know, that he might want to disappear and, you know, vanish. Um, I think that, um, I think that, you know, it's not inconceivable. I should say that it's possible that the Russian authorities themselves are not entirely convinced that he really is dead. And that might be why they're delaying at confirmation of this fan and why they're doing DNA tests on the bodies. I don't think this.
Starting point is 00:21:10 But, you know, it's not quite as preposterous an idea as one might think. Let's assume, however, that he's dead and let's go back and consider. possible suspects and I'm going to start first of all with Russian potential Russian suspects of which by the way there are potentially many first is as he's made enemies all over the place right across the Russian political system he said outrageous things about the Russian army about the Russian military leadership he's been incredibly abusive about Russian military formations it's not by One might say, you know, you know, one can perhaps imagine scenarios where some people in Russia are very, very angry and want revenge for all that.
Starting point is 00:22:02 I'm going to say straight away, I don't think that Russian state structures would have taken any action of this kind. Certainly without a direct order and probably they would have wanted, not just a direct order, but they would have wanted to go through some kind of a legal process. with Putin, in other words, you know, a decree, stamped, sealed and all that kind of thing, before they took a step of this kind of thing. And when it comes to rogue elements within the Russian security services, well, I mean, one can't totally exclude that possibility. But my own sense is that they're pretty disciplined, and it's most unlikely that that would have happened. So I don't think that's likely. But there are other potential suspects within Russia. Firstly, let's go back to the events of his attempted mutiny coup, call it whatever you will, back in June.
Starting point is 00:23:05 It's quite likely that other people were involved. It's quite likely that some oligarchs were possible that some oligarchs were involved. Some of those oligarchs might not have been involved in that coup, but they might have been involved with Pregogeon himself. It's a certainty that the Russian investigative agencies are pursuing various leads, finding out who was involved. Who knows who was involved, best of all, Prigodian himself. It's entirely, it is entirely conceivable that some of these people, very worried for their own safety, worried that they might get arrested from one day, to the next have decided to take the prime witness out of the scene by eliminating Pregozhen and
Starting point is 00:23:53 his command group. So oligarchs, those kind of people, it's a real possibility. And again, one, people should not discount. Secondly, an internal power struggle within Wagner is a very, very real possibility. I mean, we had an air crash. We're not just Brigosin, but the entire military leadership of the senior military leadership of Wagner was eliminated, including all of the people who led the mutiny back in June. Now, there was dissension. We know there was dissension within Wagner when the mutiny was organized back in June. We also know, at least Putin has told us, so that's what he says, that when he had that meeting with pregosh and he was Putin was making various proposals to Wagner.
Starting point is 00:24:51 Some of the Wagner commanders showed a willingness to go with what Putin was proposing. Brigodian acted to block it. It's quite possible some of them were angry. It's possible that some of them were angry altogether with Pregozhne. For splitting Wagner and setting it against the Russian state. A power struggle within Wagner is a real possibility. And assuming that it was an attack on this plane, it was a, you know, a murder, then the fact that the entire command staff of Wagner was on the plane with progogsion
Starting point is 00:25:32 points to my mind to an inside source, somebody who knew who would be on that plane, who had access to the plane. Remember, Wagner was providing progogsion with his security as well. it is not impossible. So that's a real possibility also. There is a third possibility, and that goes back to the fighting in Bachman, because over the course of the battle for Bachman, progogsin enlisted thousands, tens of thousands of men
Starting point is 00:26:10 from Russian prisons, and it's now become clear that very much to the anger of the Russian Defence Ministry, he was sending these men into battle in Bahmert, basically with minimal training. And apparently up to 10,000 of these people were killed. And the Ministry of Defence, Putin himself, apparently, it's one of the first things that they became angry with pregotion about
Starting point is 00:26:45 and they eventually stopped him recruiting people from prisons and they acted in order to basically put a stop to that kind of thing. But of course, in the meantime, thousands of men were killed in that way. Now, those men have families, they have connections, they have friends, some of them obviously come from criminal organisations, criminal backgrounds. It's not inconceivable that the friends or relatives of some of these people whose lives
Starting point is 00:27:15 progogion threw away, in that kind of way, might feel angry with pregogsion, might feel angry with Wagner, and might be seeking revenge. So that's also a possibility. We cannot discount. Now, you can come up with other possibilities in Russia, but it seems to me those are the most likely ones.
Starting point is 00:27:35 A power struggle within Wagner, people within Russia who might have been implicated in the coup of, attempt in June in some way and the friends and relatives of some of those people, particularly those people from prison, whose lives' pregoshin sacrificed as part of his drive to capture Bachman, something which we now know he did going beyond his orders. So those seem to me all plausible theories. I'm not.
Starting point is 00:28:14 you know, saying one or the other. Perhaps the most plausible would be Wagner with a power struggle within Wagner itself. But, you know, each of these are plausible theories. I'm not saying anyone is necessarily true. But you can see that there's a, there is a list of potential suspects there. So that's the internal suspects.
Starting point is 00:28:41 There are external ones as well. And here, of course, we've got to start with the Ukrainians. Because, of course, Bregosian captured Bachmert. He fought the Ukrainians. He defeated the Ukrainians in Bajmoud. He was, to a great extent, elevated into sort of demonic status within Ukraine. Ukrainian officials like Padolyak and Yermak, since his death, have been talking about how Pregosians, the best,
Starting point is 00:29:13 place for progosin is in hell and the thing to always remember about Ukraine, about the Ukrainian secret services, the SBU and those sort of people, is that they carry out murders in Russia. I mean, this isn't something that is controversial anymore. They bragged about it. They've been quite straightforward about the fact that they murdered people in Russia. The US, itself has conceded that they've carried out murders in Russia, people like Darya Dugina, Vladlindatarski. Why not Pregosian? Now, bear in mind that because Pregosian had quarrelled with the Russian government,
Starting point is 00:30:04 he wouldn't have had security from the Russian authorities. They wouldn't have been providing him with security. he would have relied on his own Wagner people to provide him with security that's probably a less effective security shield than the FSO the detail that provides security to Russian officials would provide so it's much easier to imagine that the security that the security that pregoge's security was penetrated and it is not inconceivable at all that it was the Ukrainian secret services, Wadanov's people,
Starting point is 00:30:46 Ukrainian military intelligence, perhaps the SBU, Ukraine's own counterintelligence service. It's not at all impossible that it was then. Okay. That's it as far as external. No, it's not. For you. Because there's other...
Starting point is 00:31:05 There's other... We can wrap up the video. There's other potential actors as well. And of course, we now come to Western governments and in particular one Western government which is of course the United States now a couple of days ago
Starting point is 00:31:21 it's interesting how these convict coincidences all stack up we've had reports starting to circulate that the United States is about to declare Wagner a prohibited organisation apparently some kind of terroristic organisation or a criminal agency of some kind of
Starting point is 00:31:42 And of course all of this comes at a very interesting and important time because there's been this coup in Niger. The Americans, the United States is worried about Wagner involving itself in Africa again. They're concerned about Wagner getting a playing a role in Niger specifically. We've seen how concerned the United States is about the situation in Niger. They've been, they sent Victoria Newland there to Niger. They blink and has been on the phone to the ousted president of Niger. They've been putting pressure on ECOWAS to intervene in Niger. Newland specifically warned the military leaders in Niger not to call on Wagner.
Starting point is 00:32:35 And of course, we've had progoge in bobbing up, making statements just before he was killed, in which he said that Wagner is back in Africa and it will expand Russian influence in Africa and liberate Africa from its colonial oppressors. Now that video, by the way, it's inconceivable that a whole assassination could have been organised so quickly in response to that video. But it gives us an idea of the kind of person he was
Starting point is 00:33:03 and why the United States worried about its position in Africa would want to put him out of the way. And the United States, just like Ukraine, has a record of eliminating its enemies through extrajudicial methods. This is not controversial. It sends drones around the world to kill people that he doesn't care for or like.
Starting point is 00:33:32 Some of these are people, you know, we probably wouldn't like very much ourselves, but the United States does that. They killed Osama, they killed Soleimani, they killed what's his name, I mean, the leader of ISIS, the other leader of al-Qaeda. Probably they've killed all kinds of other people that we don't know about. They're not the sort of people who would balk at carrying out extrajudicial killings, and they've had a history of doing it, going all the way back to the 1950s and beyond. So we can't discount that. it's not impossible that they were involved in some way.
Starting point is 00:34:11 It's not impossible either that they might have been the prime actors because Africa is important to them. And then there is another Western country, which is of course France, which as we see, it's seeing its grip on its former empire, colonial empire, the so-called independent states of West Africa. It's starting to slip. They're very worried about that. They've now had this coup in Nisia.
Starting point is 00:34:39 They too are worried about Wagner as well. I mean, there's been a huge amount about Wagner in the West. And, of course, it's not impossible that they've taken action to try to get Pregojin out of the way and to break up Wagner. And perhaps to sow discord between Wagner and the Russian authorities by rushing to blame Pregojin for his murder. So, you know, one can't exclude them as suspects either. Of course, they will say inconceivable that we would do this thing. But we know from their own record, their public record, that they do. So, you know, we can't say that this is impossible.
Starting point is 00:35:26 And remember that Wagner's presence in Belarus, this base that they've been trying to set up there, Well, it's alarmed some people in NATO as well. They've been all sorts of flesh-creeping talk about Wagner, wanting to march on Poland and all those sort of things, which might provide yet a further reason. The fundamental problem with this case, I'll say this straight away, is that assuming it was a murder, which I think it was, and by the way, if it was a murder,
Starting point is 00:35:56 I should just have added that the opinion in Russia is starting to harden, that it was an internal bomb, possibly planted in the landing gear, which would explain the damage to the wing. Anyway, to just say, the theory that it was a surface to air missile is now strongly discounted. But assuming that it was a murder,
Starting point is 00:36:21 there are actually almost too many suspects. The list of potential suspects is so great, unsurprising with a person like pregoled, that you can't just say definitely, well, you know, the case is overwhelming against one particular suspect or one particular group of people. One can think of all sorts of reasons why lots of people might have wanted to get pre-goshin out of the way. And if we discount the theory that the Russian authorities were involved, which I rather do,
Starting point is 00:37:01 by the way. I mean, you know, I'm aware that there'll be pushed back on that. And I've set out the reasons why it might have been them, but for the other very strong reasons, which both of us have outlined, I don't believe it. But the fact that he was out of favour with the Russian authorities and would not have benefited from the security provided by the Russian state would have exposed progojin to this kind of action and it's easy to see why all of Brigodgian's many enemies around the world
Starting point is 00:37:40 any one of them might have seen this as their opportunity to level the score with him so just bear that in mind also yeah you know we'll wait for the investigation to to come out with with their results whether people believe it or not, we may never really know what happened. But, you know, I think the lesson in all of this is that the,
Starting point is 00:38:08 or the one takeaway in all of this is that the collective West, they're going to blame it all on Putin. They've already, you know, passed their judgment as to what happened here. And you're not going to change anyone in the collective West's mind as far as that's concerned. It was Putin. Putin did it. Putin's a thug.
Starting point is 00:38:26 And case closed. You know, I think listening to you and I've thought about this as well during the BRICS summit inside of Russia, yeah, no chance. It actually gives more, it puts more weight on the fact that it would be someone that would want to create an incident during Bricks and inside of Russia. I mean, it points to different actors rather than the Russian government. It makes, when you sit down and think about it, it makes zero sense why the Russian government would do it at this time. Yes. Not during the most important summit that we've been talking about for a year now.
Starting point is 00:39:11 You know, it doesn't make any sense at all. I completely agree. I mean, can I just say again? I mean, I don't discount the possibility that, you know, Putin might have wanted progojin out of the way. I mean, you know, I don't want to sentimentalize Putin. I mean, he has to make, and he does make. some pretty tough decisions, some pretty ruthless decisions from time to time. So, you know, let's not say that, you know, Putin is incapable of doing these things.
Starting point is 00:39:39 But the one thing nobody has ever said about Putin is that he is stupid. And why would he carry out, if it was Putin, or even, you know, somebody within the military political system in Moscow, why would they carry out a murder at this time in this way? when there would have been so much easier and simpler and less embarrassing ways to do it. As he get into Africa, find an out-of-the-way spot, and do away with him there. Not in the middle of a brick summit, not with an air crash that the entire world can see, and not with innocent Russian citizens involved, which would be completely out of character.
Starting point is 00:40:28 for Putin especially to do. So, you know, I personally don't think it was Putin. I mean, I can see why, I can see why some people might, in good faith, think that those people in the West, Biden, the media, are not, by the way, acting in good faith. I mean, as you correctly say, I mean, they would, they would say that it was Putin,
Starting point is 00:40:54 whatever the circumstances, and they would discount. the results of any investigation that pointed in the other direction. But it doesn't add up to me. I mean, that's all I'm saying. Now, just on the subject of investigations, I mean, I have actually, I mean, it's something that most people in the West don't do, have actually studied the results of Russian investigations
Starting point is 00:41:21 into the various other murders that have taken place before. And I have to say this. My experience, Russian investigators, and I have familiar with investigation processes, I've seen them work out in prison. Russian investigators are very methodical and very thorough, and they give very detailed reports. I think they are professionals, and they do a professional job. I am not saying that, you know, necessarily you can take it, you know, take everything that they say, as complete. But whenever I've read investigations,
Starting point is 00:42:03 looked at investigative outcomes, say the murder of Polikovsky, the murder of Nemtsov, for example, previous murders like that, I found the work they did pretty convincing, up to the point where they were prepared to take it. And even if you take the view that those investigations were
Starting point is 00:42:28 incomplete you still got an awful lot more information and that enabled you to form enabled me at least to form some pretty shrewd conclusions about in those cases about what had actually
Starting point is 00:42:44 happened so waiting for the results of this investigation before forming any particular ideas narrowing the list of suspects would be a very good idea indeed. I'm pretty sure, for example,
Starting point is 00:42:59 that we will find out if it was a bomb, what sort of a bomb, and where it was placed, and that will already begin to provide us with important clues. Yeah, I agree with you there. Yeah, it seems to me like the timing of this may have been done to embarrass the Russian government.
Starting point is 00:43:20 They always, it seems to always happen, doesn't it? Whether it's the Olympics, Sochi, or any type of events which are very high, profile for the Russian government, there always seems to be some sort of intrigue or sabotage or something like that. Isn't it funny how that always happens? I mean, the coincidence is remarkable. I mean, the Scripals thought all that just on the eve of the World Cup event which the Russians have spent a massive amount of time and effort and energy organizing. One example,
Starting point is 00:43:54 I mean, that immediately springs to mind. You can come up with all kinds of others. But you're Absolutely right. There's no question at all that the coincidence is remarkable. And in this particular case, at the Briggs summit, I mean, all the facts argue against it. I mean, and I also want to make, again, my other point, which is that after the failure of his mutiny in June, I don't think he was actually any kind of threat to the Putin government. So, you know, I don't see why they would do it. it. I don't see why they would do it now, of all times, with a brick summit on the way. I would have thought exactly the kind of thing that they would avoid. And of course, if they really did want pre-gogion out of the way, which, you know, they might have done. There were much more neat ways to arrange it, which wouldn't have provided the problems and embarrassments that this particular incident has done. All right, let's wrap up the video there.
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