The Duran Podcast - Putin confident in victory, project Ukraine failed and Europe failed

Episode Date: May 12, 2026

Putin confident in victory, project Ukraine failed and Europe failed

All right, Alexander, let's talk about what is happening with Project Ukraine. The ceasefire is over. And we had Victory Day. We had the events of Victory Day. We had Putin's big press conference. Fidzio is back in Slovakia, and he's questioning why the EU wants to phase out gas and oil. Why are they doing such an idiotic thing? We have Germany continuing to talk about escalation.

We have Pistorius, the defense minister in Kiev, making a surprise visit to Kiev, to talk about military contracts. We have Ushakov talking about Ukraine having to leave Donetsk. He has now said that the requirement is that Ukraine leave Donbass, the military. A lot of different things going on. Where do you want to begin? Well, I think the best place to begin, actually, is this, firstly, this conversation that Trump and Putin had on the 29th of April, which basically kick-started or set in train, this whole sequence of events,

one after the other, that we've seen up to an including Victory Day, because it's clear that the Ukrainians did have some kind of a plan to attack the celebrations on Victory Day, or at least to try to. And the Russians took that very, very seriously. And when we discussed this conversation between Putin and Trump before, we made the point that Putin passed on to Trump. A very clear warning about Iran and told Trump, under no circumstances, resumed the war about Iran.

But we now know that it was also an. Other things too, and that Putin also told Trump, if there is a Ukrainian attack on the Victory Day parade, then we are going to absolutely blow up, destroy central Kiev. And don't this start and think that we're not going to do that. And this is a warning that we're going to implement and that we had a whole ramp up of messages. We discussed them in previous programs. We had the defense ministry. There were clear indications that they were going to use Arashnik missiles.

We then had further threats from the foreign ministry to attack Kiev. Zelensky, of course, responded and pushed back against all of these. He also warned the foreign dignitaries, if you remember, not to go. But what eventually happened is that the Americans, for the first time, since the start of the entire Ukraine crisis, going all the way back, in my opinion, to the Orange Revolution of 2004, took these warnings of the Russians seriously and basically told Zelensky back off. And the way they got around this was that Trump said to Putin, look, you've got a two-day ceasefire. Let's make it fall.

You want to exchange a prisoner exchange with the Ukrainians, 500 men on each side. Let's make it a thousand. We can then claim that it's my Donald Trump's ceasefire and a prisoner exchange plan. Putin went along with that. But the long and the short of it was that the Ukrainians were basically told by the Americans, you are not going to attack Moscow on Victory Day. and that's the end of that. So it's the first time that's happened.

Now, how important that is, whether it's going to change anything in the long term, is an entirely different question. But we then had the follow-up, which was Putin's press conference, which he gave after the Victory Day celebrations. And a number of things came out. first of all, he gave us this very detailed account of his interactions with Trump and the conversations he had with Trump. But that he made it, I think, absolutely crystal clear that for him personally, it's Europe that he now sees as the great enemy. And it was interesting that the Russians

apparently did not even bother to contact the Europeans to pass on these warnings. They contacted the Americans. They contacted the Chinese and the Indians. They didn't speak to the Europeans at all. And Putin's comments about the Europeans over the course of this press conference were absolutely, I mean, they were extreme. They went further than anything I've ever seen him say about the Europeans. They said that the Europeans wanted to create this political crisis in Russia, to disintegrate Russia in 2022. that Finland joined NATO so that it could join in the plundering of Russia, that would then follow. Now, all of that is things that we have already said.

We said this many times. But it did look to me, and it was strange, that Putin saw this all coming from Europe and seemed to blame the Americans less for this. I mean, he was basically leaving the Americans off, but saying that it was the Europeans who are the true enemy of Russia now, and the Americans are lesser, which I did find actually, given the history, given what Biden was up to, given what Sullivan and Lincoln were up to, given what all the neocons in Washington were up to, I did find that very strange. Why?

Why is you putting all the blame on Europe? Actually, we've pointed this out in many, many videos. that he's giving the United States a buy. He's letting the United States off. We've seen it in the negotiations. We've seen it with Whitkoff, Kushner, Dmitryev, all of their statements, the Russian official statements, with regards to the negotiations taking place with the United States,

how the U.S. is actually taking Russia's interests into account and the Europeans never do, knowing that the Europeans don't make a move without the United States. Yeah. I mean, when you talk about the plundering of Russia, the, the, the, the, the, the volcanization, the regime change of Russia, and then the dismemberment and the breaking apart of Russia and plundering Russia. I mean, you go back to Gorbachev Yelts in Clinton time, right?

Yeah. When Clinton was in Russia, just, you know, plundering the place, right? The United States and the Europeans. But it reminds me of the Clinton eras of the 90s. You didn't get to the point of dismemberment or anything like that, which is what Biden was aiming for. And as we pointed out in many videos, the Europeans were absolutely on board for that. And they thought that in three months with sanctions, extreme heavy sanctions, plus the conflict in Ukraine, Boris Johnson ripping apart the Istanbul deal. Then in three to four months, you would get the Putin regime change.

they would be back in Russia. And this time, they wouldn't mess it up. This time, they would make sure that as they were plundering and pillaging, they were also breaking up, which is something they didn't do during Clinton's time. And I've always gotten the sense that the Clinton faction, which you can go back all the way to all these people that Biden has in his administration, right? These are the same people, effectively. You can go back to the Newlands. And then the FD.E. You can go back to the Newlands. and the Sullivans of the Obama era and the coup in 2014, there was always this sense that they missed their opportunity in the 90s. And this time around the Der Biden, they weren't going to miss this opportunity.

They were going to break up Russia. And so Putin's saying all of this. Why do you think he excludes the United States? Is it because he's looking at it strategically? You know, the United States, big superpower far away. Yes, they're trying to always mess around with us, but we have to have good relations with them, or at least we have to have some sort of talking relationship with them, even though they're always gunning for us. Does he look at it as Europe just losing their sovereignty, just being a bunch of vassals, and just telling them,

look, you know, the United States is telling you to jump off a bridge. Why are you jumping off the bridge? Just because the U.S. is telling you that that's weak. So you're the ones at fault at the end of the day. You know, the United States is going to do what the United States does. Why are you guys blindly following them when it's against your interest? I mean, what do you think of the reasoning is to all of this? What's the, is there a strategy in this approach? Because I think, I think you have just, what Putin said is not something new. I mean, we've been reporting on this strategy of, of the U.S. and Europe for about six months now. Three to six months? I think there's a lot of what you say, which is correct. I think there is an element of strategy here. I think Putin is looking at the situation. He sees that the relations between the Europeans and the Americans are going bad. He recognizes that the Americans have agency in a way that the Europeans don't.

He says to himself, America is far away. It's not there in Europe all the time. It remains a superpower. It is in the long term interests, and not just interests, but you could argue, a need as well for Russia to have some kind of relationship, even if it's an adversarial relationship with the United States, but a relationship where the Americans and the Russians can talk with each other. and that is important for Russia. But I could say something else, and this is very much the feeling I got from the press conference,

which is that at some level, he actually sincerely feels what he is saying, that it is the Europeans who truly hate Russia, and that it is they who have poisoned the atmosphere. and have created this crisis, that the origin of the crisis, in other words, is in Europe, rather than in the United States with the neocons. Now, I have to say, if he thinks that, then I think he's completely wrong. I think that ultimately it is the neocons who actually are the drivers.

But, as I said, listening to him, as I said, his anger and his bitterness towards Europe, really comes out very clearly. And when he talked, for example, about the failure of Istanbul, he for the first time revealed that it was Macron who phoned him up and told him, withdraw the troops from Kiev, and then we'll get the deal. But you can't expect the Ukrainians to sign this when you have the troops close to Kiev. And Putin says, we have it all on tape. we recorded the call.

And then of course he did withdraw his troops of Kiev. And he mentions, by the way, that there was a whole big discussion recently about this in the Kremlin, which can only mean, and this is a point to also make that there was a contentious argument and that people in the Kremlin

were reminding him of how he was fooled by Macron. So it's still obviously something that people are bringing up with Putin. But anyway, he then goes on to say after Macron tricked me like this, Johnson comes along and gets the Ukrainians to pull out of Istanbul altogether. And when you listen to him, it's quite clear to me that he thinks that Macron and Johnson had worked it all out in advance and that it was. a sort of two-step thing. And that, as I said, Macron had the job of getting Putin to pull the

troops out of Kiev. And Johnson had the job of getting the Ukrainians to pull out in Istanbul. So he has this huge sense of anger and betrayal about the Europeans. And as I said, it is visceral and it is very powerful. And it may be blinding him to the reality that a lot of what is actually going on in Europe actually has an American origin. Anyway, it was very strange. But I've never seen him talk about the Europeans quite this way. And, you know, when he was asked, who does he think would be the right person for the Europeans to appoint to negotiate with him? He said Gerhard Schroeder, which is in effect is his way of saying no one.

No one. No one to negotiate. with me because Gajot isn't going to be appointed to that position. So he doesn't trust anybody in Europe anymore. He still has some belief that with the Americans he can find, at least in the longer term, some way back, but with the Europeans, I mean, he's lost all faith and belief in them. I wonder if it's not so much a U.S. thing as it is a Trump thing. I wonder if it was Biden.

Yeah. Then he would be just as angry with the US, or at least the US would be lumped into this group. Yeah. Because effectively that's what it was. They were a group. They all liked each other. They all hung out with each other.

Yeah. Bided and blinked in and Berbac and Callis, Macron, Boris Johnson, Stommer, whoever was the Prime Minister of the UK at the time, Rishi Zunak, whatever. Right? They all got along. They all liked hanging. liked hanging out with each other. And while the U.S.'s position has not changed in that at the end of the day, this is ultimately, when you go all the way to the back, to the origin of everything, this is

their proxy war. And Trump hasn't effectively changed that. It still is the U.S.'s proxy war to destroy Russia. But can you say that Putin at least sees Trump as, yes, he is fueling and funding this proxy war, but the Europeans don't like him in that he's not part of the group? Well, I think that he's true. I think that's absolutely correct. I think there is an element that Putin feels that he has some ability to discuss things with Trump. And I think the fact that they are able to argue with each other, odd enough, has a bonding result between them. I mean, you know, people who can argue can actually establish a relationship. He also tried to take them out.

Well, that's exactly, you know, I'm glad that you've made that point because that is where this is all so strange. And that is where I suspect there is the difference between Putin and the rest of the Kremlin. Because if you look at people like Medvedev, they don't trust the Americans. I mean, they don't trust the Americans at all. Medvedev has made it absolutely clear that as far as he's concerned, Trump is as dangerous as an enemy as anyone in Europe. is, there's no difference between Trump and Biden. That's Medvedev's thinking. And I think that is widely shared in Moscow.

And of course, there was Valdai. And Valdi was clearly an attempt to assassinate Putin. And all of the obvious indications are that Trump was involved in it. And yet Putin still seems less angry with Trump than he is with the Euro. Europeans and with the EU globalists and with all that crowded people. And it is strange and it isn't something which I think is something that many people in Moscow in the Kremlin any longer agree with Putin about. But anyway, there it is.

There is no way back with Putin and the Europeans. He doesn't trust them. He doesn't like them. In fact, they disgust him. He wants to have nothing further to do with them. With the Americans, in the end, he still thinks that perhaps there's a way forward. But he did also say about the negotiations. The negotiations aren't going anywhere.

The Ukrainians know what they have to do. They're not doing it. Ushikov said the same. I'm going to suggest, actually, that, Putin and the Russians no longer believe that the Ukrainians are ever going to make any kind of concessions, they're never going to withdraw from Dombas. When Dombas is captured, they're not going to withdraw from Zaporos or Harsson region. They're never going to make peace. When you actually read Putin's words, my sense is that he thinks that the negotiations with the

Americans are also at a dead end. But he seems to think that you can park Ukraine to one side and eventually overtime. If you maintain contacts with the Americans, something might come. I can't imagine that many people in Moscow agree with him. But that still seems to be his lingering belief at the moment. By the way, you know, when you're talking about proxy war, he did say that Ukraine was a proxy war, but not a proxy war between the U.S. and Russia, but a proxy war between Europe and Russia. Interesting. Yeah, the U.S. has never rolled back on sanctions. They haven't changed their position with Crimea. Whether we're dealing with sanctions on Cuba or Iran, or their position in any type of dispute.

The U.S. government doesn't matter which president. They never changed their position. So it would be strange if Putin were to think that even if you could park Ukraine to the side, that the U.S. would maybe change their views of their policy towards Russia and Ukraine. I don't think they ever will. Just like I don't think the Europeans ever will. No, no. He also was misquoted about the war.

ending. I don't know if you want to get into that as well, because I think that's important because that's the quote that got the most news. Everyone was talking about Putin says the war is ending, and it's connected to everything that we're saying, actually. Absolutely. And it's important to say that that misquote came from TAS, Russia's official state use agency. I mean, We talk again about, you know, the information war and the Russians being dreadful at it. Well, here you have another example. Why didn't they correct it? Well, why didn't they?

I mean, what happened was, and I saw this, the TAS had that, and was up for a few hours, and then somebody clearly decided this has to be taken down, and it was taken down. But they didn't go out and correct it. And it was unbelievable that they did. A statement, absolutely. A statement that this is a misquare. Putin actually didn't say on X, or something like this. But, you know, this is so typical.

I have to say this of the Russians. You don't go out, admit an error, give out a correction. He's trying to sweep it all under the carpet, pretend it hasn't happened. So the story just goes on circulating. It makes one, well, deeply frustrated. And, you know, this isn't, you know, saying this, you know, out of sympathy for the Russians on this, they don't deserve any sympathy. But because misleading information is put out there on the information space, and it is going to lead to assumptions and decisions, which are almost certainly wrong. Now, that's the fault of this.

And this is a big one. And this is a very, very big one. So what Putin again was talking about the Europeans, the Europeans. He was talking about the fact that the Europeans had this big project to use Ukraine as a tool to basically disintegrate, break up Russia. Now, what he's talking about is Project Ukraine. What we on the Duran long ago spoke about as Project Ukraine, the project to use Ukraine to basically smash Russia. to dismantle Russia, to provoke a crisis in Russia, to take Russia all the way back to the 1990s, and beyond, if possible.

Project Ukraine. And he said this failed. This has failed. Russia came through 2022. It survived. It's grown stronger. Project Ukraine has failed. And he suggests his comments.

were about that. And he was saying that gradually, even in Europe, and he meant the Europeans here, even in Europe, some people are beginning to understand that. And that the momentum behind project Ukraine as a project is ending. It is fading. That's not the same as the ongoing conflict that is playing out in Ukraine. And on that issue, by the way, he actually said, look, the Americans come up with all sorts of proposals, but ultimately it's the Ukrainians and the Russians who have to sort this old out between them. The Europeans are always going to be unhelpful because they remain what they are.

The Americans, they made an effort, but it hasn't led anywhere. So he wasn't talking about an end of the conflict, not at all, but project Ukraine as a project to break up Russia. That is indeed ending. And that's an important distinction. And it's clearly set out in Putin's words. If you go to his words, you can see it clearly set out there. All right. So where do we go from here?

We had a big announcement from Putin as well about. a big energy deal project that's going to, they're going to announce the details of it later, I imagine, between China and Russia. I think we kind of know what it is, right, power of Siberia 2 and power Siberia 2 and and power Siberia 3 and 4 and 5. Who knows how many powers of Siberias we're going to get? Exactly. But the pipeline that moves through Mongolia, gas that was meant to go to Europe is not going

to be completely diverted to China. Fidzio talked about this, ending gas from Russia and how this is idiotic, because at the end of the day, Slovakia is going to end up buying Russian gas marked up from the United States. So once again, the United States will be selling Europe-Russian gas, but at a higher price. And then we have the statements from Ushikov talking about Ukraine's military having to get out of Dombas. So where are we going from here? Do you think we think we're going to get another? offer from Putin after they wrap up Dombast still, or do you think he's just going to just continue to move forward? Yes, I think he is. Now, again, this is something I want to say about Putin,

and I've said this many times. Putin is a lawyer. And what lawyers like to do, litigators like to do, really good litigators like to do, is they like to make proposals which are reasonable or peer reasonable, offers to the other side that appear reasonable, but which are always pitched at that level which the other side is going to reject. Lincoln, by the way, who was a lawyer, politician, used to do exactly the same of the South during the American Civil War. He made offer after, after, after, offer, after, after, all of them very reasonable, all of them very upsetting to his radical base in the United States. None of them ultimately acceptable to the to the south, as Lincoln almost certainly knew. And Putin does the same. So he says, pull out of

Donbass. They're not going to pull out of Donbass. Zelensky has said this any number of times. The Europeans back him on this. Dombas is going to fall. At some point over the next couple of months, Donbass is going to fall. At that point, Putin is going to say he's going to make an offer, but it'll be an awful like an ultimatum. Now we've taken Donbass. This is the moment for you to accept everything else. Give us a Zaborozian, and Hears on retreat from there. Make all of those other proposals,

all of those other agreements about the Orthodox Church, the rights of Russians, all of the rest of Istanbul Plus that we've talked about. The Ukrainians will refuse and the war will continue. So this is, I think, Putin's style, it infuriates people in, you know, more hardline people in Russia.

It infuriates many people outside Russia. But I don't think this is ever going to change. But the war itself is going to continue. And as I said, the ultimate objective, well, one of them certainly is Odessa. and we've now had clear indications about this, and I'm sure that there'll be other places, Kharkov, Nehprop, all sorts of other places, perhaps Kiev itself to, ultimately regime change. But anyway, the conflict one way or the other in Ukraine is going to go on.

The most important thing, the most important takeaway for me from the events of the last weekend is that the relationship between Russia and Europe is ended forever. Even if there is an IFDA government in Germany, even if that government comes along to Moscow and says to Putin, we want to settle, we want to restore links with you, we want a return of gas and oil, we want to do the kind of things that Vizzo is doing. Putin is so angry with the Europeans.

It is inconceivable, he will agree. And Putin, it is important to remember, is the moderate in the Kremlin. If he's not going to agree to act to that, no one in Russia is. The relationship, the long relationship between Russia and Europe extends back to people. Peter the Great is ended. Yeah, but what does that mean for a country like Slovakia? Very difficult. I mean, they will do what they can, but they've been dragged along by the big countries,

by the EU. The only way that they can perhaps find a way back with the Russians, if it's important to them to, is to pull out of the EU. And when I say Europe, I mean, the EU is, in Putin's mind, in the mind, in the of the Russian leadership, the EU and Europe are now conflated. And whilst the present structures in Europe continue, there is no way back between the Russians and the Europeans. Whether there's any way back between the Russians and the Americans is a different matter.

But I doubt it. Is Russia positioning themselves for conflict with Europe in 2030? Do you think they believe that? that's happening? Or do you think that's just part of the, they think this is part of the grift? I think they think it's part of the, I think, certainly I think Putin thinks it's part of the grift. I mean, when he talked about how, you know, project Ukraine is fading, I mean, he clearly doesn't expect a war between the Europeans. He probably looks at the Europeans and says to himself, these people aren't capable of waging a war against us. But wars,

Conflicts can be waged at many different levels. We might not have a kinetic war in terms of, you know, tank armies, and missiles being launched, and drones being launched and that kind of thing. But we are going to have a very icy piece. I mean, a piece much more icy, even than the one that we saw during the Cold War. Yeah, but they are launching drones, right? At least they're letting their airspace be used for the drones to hit. Absolutely. And Putin was asked about that.

And he said, you know, there will be a cost for the Europeans to pay over it. But he didn't explain what it was. But as I said, I don't think he, I mean, by the way, I mean, you know, we must be careful not to assume that he talks for everybody in Moscow or in the Kremlin. I mean, Medvedev is talking a much harsher language. And I was starting to think, by the way, that Medvedev is positioning himself eventually for a presidential run when Putin steps aside. I mean, his rhetoric is such that one of its purposes seems to be to give Medvedev a high profile. Just saying. But put that aside, Putin himself, I think, does not believe that there is going to be a war.

But that doesn't change the fact that his anger with the Europeans is now so strong. He's mistrust of them is so great. I think hatred, hatred of the European leadership of today is the word hatred is not too strong to define his feelings. I mean, his bitterness and anger is that great. How does this affect the continued sales of? of energy to Europe, at least until 2027, which is when Europe says they're going to cut off the energy from Russia? I think it's ending.

I mean, I think that, yes, he likes FISA. He will continue to supply gas and oil to the extent that he can to feed so. But he sought what happened to Woban. He trusts Mao, an inch. I think that's all coming to an end. On Russia's initiative. Or in the EU's initiative. On the EU.

Well, I mean, the EU announced it first. Yeah. But it's the Russians who are going to do it. I mean, there's going to be these enormous energy deals with China. And that is the long-term relationship. The Russians have said also to Japan, look, if you want to buy a oil from us, by all means, go ahead. All you need to do is to do away with the oil price gap. And we will sell it to you.

Okay, it looks like Putin is reverting more to his old self, I guess. I mean, I was watching the speech and his mannerisms. It looked like the Putin of, say, the Biden era, I guess you could say pre-Trump, where he was more assertive, more aggressive. Then Trump came along, and it looks like he kind of got into, just my opinion, kind of got into a little bit of a lull, a rut. and now he's kind of emerging from that. Exactly.

I don't know. I'm just... Absolutely. The way I saw him, his body language, the way he was speaking. Yes. It's confident. He was in charge. Seems like he found his rhythm.

He found his rhythm. I think also at a psychological level, I mean, it's not a huge thing, but maybe it is a big thing, but at a psychological level, the fact that he and the Russians gave the Americans an ultimatum over the Red Square parade and the Americans accepted it and forced the Ukrainians to stand down. I think that's probably, you know, given him, a sense that he can actually, he can actually push back against the Americans, that if he does, if he pushes back strongly enough, they will listen. and from this point going forward, we might start to see him becoming more assertive with them than he's been up to now. He also pushed back hard on the Tomahawk missiles, by the way.

But I don't think the Americans ever really planned to supply Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles. This time, after Valdei, he's come back. He's told the Americans, look, get your proxy under control. the Americans did get their proxy under control. And I think that affected his moot over the last couple of days and perhaps going forward. Well, when he tells the United States to get their proxy under control, I mean, effectively, what he's telling the United States is, you guys don't attack us. I mean, don't green light. Correct.

The attack into Russia, which is basically what was going to happen. I don't know if they were going to hit Moscow or if they were going to hit. areas of Russia. But no doubt they were planning something on May 9th. No question. And so Putin doesn't address Ukraine. He doesn't even bother with Europe. He goes straight to the source. Yeah. And he tells the source, the Trump administration, call off your attack. Yes. And they did. And they did. Because just to end the video, Russia seems to have pitched it. The retaliation seemed to have been calibrated just right so that the Trump White House finally got the message and said, crap, even if we go forward with the attack on May 9th and say Russia does retaliate,

we're going to be in big trouble because they're going to, we're talking about the center of Kiev, we're talking about diplomats, we're talking out of time with Iran and we have everything going on there. We're talking about Erezniks. I mean, this probably freaked out the Trump administration. It definitely gave them pause and they said, okay, let's not even tempt a rush on this one. I think freak out is perhaps not too strong a word. I think the Americans were alarmed, actually. I think this was one Russian warning that finally cut through. Yeah, all right. We'll end the video there at the durand.com. We are an ex-enrollment. Bull and Telegram. We are also on substack as well. And you can also find us on, did I say,

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