The Duran Podcast - Putin diplomacy checkmate. Zelensky Turkey stunt

Episode Date: May 12, 2025

Putin diplomacy checkmate. Zelensky Turkey stunt

All right, Alexander, let's talk about what is going on with Project Ukraine. A lot of activity over the weekend. Alexander, what are your thoughts on everything that happened? From Putin's speech to the, well, let's say from the four plus one is what I call them, the four European leaders plus Trump, who was from far away, they got together in Kiev, Trump via a phone call. and they presented an ultimatum to Putin. Then we got Putin's speech pretty much on the same day, very late at night, which I think says a lot.

We have Putin's speech, a meeting in Istanbul this Thursday, perhaps, and we now have Zelensky's response. Actually, Macron's response to Putin's speech and the negotiations in Turkey. Then we had Zelensky's response. Then we had Trump's response and then we had Zelensky's amended response. So, Alexander, I think that's the timeline of what happened over the weekend. Your thoughts? It is incredibly confusing in some respects. But I think the key thing to say is that if you're talking about the substance of the negotiating positions of both sides,

not even talking negotiating positions, if you talk about the substance of the positions of each side, I don't get the sense that they really changed at all. Well, certainly on the Russian side, they haven't changed. The Russians are saying, look, these are our terms. The terms are what we set out last year when Putin spoke to the foreign ministry. We are prepared to sit down and to negotiate with the Ukrainians and see whether we can take this thing forward. But we are not prepared to agree to a ceasefire. If there is going to be a ceasefire, we have to be confident that the negotiations are making progress,

that we're coming to some kind of definite conclusion. We are not prepared to agree to a ceasefire first. The Europeans, the Ukrainians, and I think one has to also say the Americans are taking the opposite position. They don't really, I think, want to get involved in detail negotiations. They are well aware of the fact that Ukraine is losing the war and that Russia is winning the war. They don't want to make any major concessions to the Russians which might constrain their freedom of action in the future. They do intend to rearm, reinforce Ukraine. they do intend ultimately to return and to the whole discussion of the conflict and how it began,

but also ultimately to try to push the Russians into making fundamental concessions in the future. They know they can't do it now because they're losing the war, so they want to freeze the conflict. And that's why they're asking for a ceasefire in advance of any negotiations. because there's a seized fire, even if it's packaged as just a 30-day ceasefire, because Kellogg, who is the ultimate, you know, mastermind, if you like, of this whole thing, they said it quite openly. You know, if there's a 30-day ceasefire, then there won't be any resumption of the fighting afterwards. Very openly.

Very openly. He said it time and time again. So get the Russians to agree to a ceasefire, pretend it. it's a 30-day ceasefire, but then make sure that it's a lasting ceasefire and freeze the conflict. I mean, that's basically what the Ukrainians, the Europeans, the Americans are all trying to do. Can I ask you a quick question? Yeah. When they were in Kiev, the four leaders with Zelensky, they didn't really come up with a new plan to present to Russia.

basically they just, their ultimatum was a 30-day unconditional ceasefire packaged as the Kellogg plan. I mean, the points that they put out there in a statement were just basically Kellogg's plan, right? It's exactly the same. They didn't come up with anything new. No, they came up with absolutely nothing new. I think that is an important point to grasp. There was absolutely nothing new in what they said on Saturday when they came to Kiev met with Zelensky, there were pretence about that there was some kind of discussions.

They can't have been any meaningful discussions. The only issue that I think they did talk about was whether Ukraine should announce a unilateral 30-day ceasefire. And then they would dare the Russians either to breach it, to ignore it, in which case they would impose sanctions, or whether they would give the Russians the ultimatum to agree to the ceasefire. and then they would impose the sanctions. I mean, that was the only discussion that took place on Saturday, and which involved the Americans. Now, what happened was that instead of Ukraine declaring a unilateral ceasefire,

starting from Monday, they decided to give the Russians this ultimatum. quite why that happened that way, you know, we don't really know, we don't know what the discussions were. My guess is that the Ukrainians pushed back. The Ukrainians didn't want to declare a unilateral ceasefire because they're already under enormous pressure and they probably worried that if a ceasefire like that were declared, there would be, and the Russians didn't agree, there would be a collapse on the front lines or something of that kind. But that's my guess. I mean, I don't know. But that was the only discussion as far as I can see that took place. In all other respects, it was the same Western position as we've seen previously.

And the demands for an unconditional ceasefire go all the way back to March after the meeting of the Americans and the Ukrainians in Jeddah. A proposal then for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire. Putin rejected it when he spoke with Trump on the 80s. of March, but the Europeans, the Ukrainians, the Americans, Kellogg, all insisting on it. So they made exactly the same demand as they've always made, but this time they backed it with a threat of further sanctions. Big sanctions couched in the form of an ultimatum, but in effect the identical proposal that has been made before. The Trump messages. What are your thoughts?

Right. Well, okay. So a number of things to say. Firstly, it's interesting that the White House has not yet provided a readout of the telephone call between Trump and the leaders, which is quite interesting. Trump published a message on true social in which it was a bit garbled. and I didn't initially understand what it was all about, but he spoke about a ceasefire, ideally, a ceasefire, hopefully. It didn't seem to me as if he had a great deal of conviction or enthusiasm behind this whole plan.

My sense is that Trump, for all kinds of reasons, is not particularly keen to go down the route of imposing further sanctions. Now, I think there's probably all kinds of reasons for this. It's not because he loves the Russians or he's under the control of Putin or anything of that kind. It's because he's probably aware of the fact the sanctions up to now haven't been successful. He knows that the sanctions can only really be effective if China and India join and support them. China is not going to support the sanctions. Trump is trying to de-escalate the trade conflict with China. He doesn't really want to impose secondary sanctions on China, which will complicate all of that. And I think he also probably at some level senses that if he does

go down the sanctions route, it will mean two things. Firstly, he risks completely losing any prospect of establishing a long-term relationship with Russia, which I think he's still angers for. But secondly, I think he also senses at some level that if he agrees to these additional sanctions, the neocons, the Europeans have got him. He's made that decision. He can't realistically walk it back. He's recommitted fully to supporting Ukraine. He's taken publicly in the most effective in demonstrable way, Ukraine's side, he's come out against the Russians. I think at some level, he's very uneasy about that. And he understands, again, in some sense, in some way that this is a trap that has been laid for him.

I don't know that he's got all of the nuances, but this is, that was my impression reading that truth, social message. It seems to lack enthusiasm or conviction. So then the Europeans deliver their ultimatum. I just want to clarify. You're talking about the message that he sent where he did say, he did say he supports an unconditional ceasefire. 30 days.

30 days, he said that 30 days. And if they don't agree, he didn't mention Russia by name. No. But he said if they don't agree, there will be. sanctions, obviously, that's meant towards Russia. That's a threat towards Russia. There's no doubt about that. Oh, no question about that. That's a threat towards Russia. That was the first message. Right. That's what you're talking about. That was the first message, which I think was published. I think it was on Thursday or Friday, yeah. Thursday or Friday. Then, as I said,

there was the ultimatum that we got from the Europeans. Then on the same day, late at night, after a whole succession of meetings with the Vietnamese, with the Libyans, with all kinds of other people, Putin goes to the Kremlin. He basically rejects the ultimatum. He rejects the ceasefire. People are trying to read more ambiguity to Putin's words than there actually is. He says very clearly, ceasefires won't work. The Ukrainians constantly violate them. He says that in order for to be a ceasefire, there has to be a stop to arms deliveries, stops of intelligence sharing. It's all there, actually. If you read through his comments carefully, it's clearly set out. But then he comes up with his counterproposal, which he says, we all want to end this wall.

So let's start negotiations. And we didn't break off the negotiations with the Ukrainians. we'd actually achieved considerable progress in the negotiations with the Ukrainians in February, March, April, 2022, and then the Ukrainians walked out of the negotiations. And this happened in Istanbul. So let's go back to the position we were in in April 2022, obviously taking into account the new realities that have emerged since then. Let's restart the negotiations in Istanbul. I will speak to Erdog 1 tomorrow.

I'll get Erdog 1 to agree to this. We will put together a negotiating team. They will fly to Istanbul. They'll be there on Thursday. If the Ukrainians turn up, we can begin to negotiate again. And then over the course of the discussions that will take place between the Ukrainians and us, maybe if progress is made, a ceasefire will emerge. So that was what Putin said.

Now, I should quickly say it was a masterly speech. It was extremely well put together and very powerfully delivered. And I mean, there was a sharp contrast in tone because you saw the Europeans the previous day. He was incredibly belligerent and very very. very, very threatening and aggressive language. There'd also been an announcement a short while earlier that they'd agreed with the Ukrainians to set up war crimes tribunals. It doesn't look as if they were looking for these. They were looking again, as I said, to put the Russians in a very difficult position and to work towards some kind of a victory. And, of course, very, very,

very aggressive language about Russia, about aggression, about now if so, we have so. butts from Stama, they must agree to a ceasefire right away. And Putin doesn't really understand what this is all about. He wants a ceasefire so that he can hold a parade, whereas we want to have a proper ceasefire for 30 days. I mean, insulting language, Putin doesn't stoop to any of that. He doesn't even mention Macron-Starmer, Tusk and Metz, who are the four leaders in Ukraine by name. He says all sorts of, he says, manages to throw in some complimentary things about the new administration in Washington. In other words, Trump, he thanks other people who are trying to achieve peace, but he comes up with this proposal. So it's extremely well crafted, well put together speech,

if I may say, worked out very, very quickly, obviously by Putin. And he's a very well. He's a very crafty, advisors in between all these various important meetings with, you know, the Vietnamese, all the others that he's having. So, you know, it shows that this is a well-organized team. And notice, it's all very carefully worded. Putin was talking from prepared notes. So Trump says, so first of all we get Kellogg, the Europeans and Kellogg. So Macron says, it's a step forward, even though it's fundamentally, again, no different from what the Russians have been saying all along. They're prepared to negotiate directly with Ukraine, but they're not prepared to agree to a ceasefire first. So Macron gives the impression that this is actually a step forward

by the Russians, but in fact, it's a step. They've already taken many times going all the way back to April 2022. Zolensky says, no talks without a ceasefire. They have a step. They have has to be a ceasefire first. Kellogg publishes a message. I think it's on X. He also says, ceasefire first, then negotiations, because Kellogg obviously wants a freeze. And then we get, what absolutely knocks everything, you know, completely asunder, is that we get, Another message from Trump. I started have doubts about whether Ukraine really is interested in peace. The Russians have difficulties with the idea of a ceasefire, but they are offering direct negotiations.

They're sending people to Istanbul. The Ukrainians must go. and this just after an earlier message that he'd posted on truth social, in which he said this is a breakthrough, it's a sign that we're actually finally moving forward, and the war is going to end. So I almost get the impression that Trump is clutching to this proposal of Putin's, because he really doesn't want to go down the sanctions route,

for some of the reasons probably that I've set out. So he's now says this is the breakthrough, this is the moment, this is where we get direct negotiations between Ukraine and Russia started. It goes completely against what Kellogg, his own peace envoy, and Macron and Zelensky and the other Europeans are all saying. So Zelensky has to patch up something together and he comes up with this thing. Yes, absolutely, I will go to, I will go to Istanbul. I will meet with Putin.

If Putin dares to come, except he's apparently still insisting that there must be the ceasefire first. So I don't actually think anything has really changed. I suspect that we will get a Russian delegation turning up in Istanbul. on Thursday, Putin and Erdogan have spoken to each other. Erdogan says, absolutely, I will do everything I can to make this possible. I'm going to make all the facilities possible in Istanbul. I'm ready to help in every way I can to get these negotiations going. So the Russians will send a delegation to Istanbul.

I think we can put aside the theory that Putin himself will go at this stage. I mean, this isn't the moment to meet with Zelensky. I don't think the Ukrainians are going to go. And the question is, given that Putin has rejected the ultimatum, which is, in fact, what he has done, whether we are going to get the further sanctions announcement that was threatened, and what Trump is going to do. That, to me, is the question now. All right.

I've got a lot to say here. So two parts. Two parts. I want to talk about Zelensky saying that he's going to go to Istanbul. Before we get to that, I have a couple of questions for you. Putin making this statement on late Saturday, early Sunday morning, however you want to look at it, shows the importance that he placed on making this statement. He even had the Western media sitting in the first. front row. Your thoughts about that? Well, I think he did absolutely the right thing. I have absolutely

no doubt about this. Russia had just been presented with an ultimatum. If Russia had not responded immediately, it would have been seen as a sign of weakness and a sign of indecision on the Russian side. So he absolutely felt, and I think he was absolutely right to do so, even though he admitted that he was tired and he must have been exhausted. He's had a full day of meetings coming on top of all the packed events of the holiday. So, three days. Three days. Incredibly heavy, you know, meetings and things. But he understood, the Russians understood, that they had to respond to this immediately because had they not done so, well, that would have been, you know, the rumors the following day in the media,

indecision, argument, conflict in the Kremlin. And there would have been further statements and announcements probably from Trump himself, you know, reinforcing the threats

that were made by the Europeans in Kiev. So he clearly didn't, he clearly wanted to get his words in first before the Americans have added their own to what the Europeans said.

And he also clearly wanted to scotch any idea that there was any weakness or indecision on the Russian side. Given the pressure on him, and by the way, it was timed. They all knew that he would be tired. They all knew how busy he would be. I mean, these things don't happen by chance. I mean, they all went to Kiev. They presented this ultimate.

there, knowing that, you know, he would be under, you know, physical and mental pressure before he could respond. But given the realities, he absolutely needed to respond as quickly as possible, and he did so in a very, very effective and very masterly way. Now, the Russians could see the direction that things were going, I suspect, over the course of the day. There'd been a report about the fact that an ultimatum was coming in Reuters and one from the Financial Times. I suspect that a large part of this statement was prepared over the course of the day. But the fact is Putin had it ready and he came out and he gave it. Okay. Trump and his connection to all of this, the ultimatum and to the four European leaders in Kiev. There are some something.

people who say that Trump was not so connected to them. There are other people who say that Trump was very connected to them. I believe, personally, I believe that Trump made his decision and he decided to align with Zelensky and the four European leaders. That's my own personal opinion on this. And the reason I believe this is because of, well, you have the truth social post after he spoke to Zelensky, where he said, 30-day unconditional ceasefire or also there'll be sanctions. I believe the way he worded it without specifically naming Russia, but the way he worded it was very much an ultimatum to Russia.

That's how I read it. The fact that when the European leaders were in Kiev, they were very, very, it was staged, very determined. They were very, they created a scenario where they were in a room and they wanted to make sure that the whole world saw them sitting together calling Trump. They got the videos, they got the photos, they're all in the room, they have the speakerphone or whatever right there, and they're coordinating with Trump and the media, the collective West media. I'm not saying you believe what they're writing, but they were also coordinating. to come out and say that Trump is with the Europeans. Trump is aligned with the Europeans.

I mean, those were the articles that were coming out. And the Europeans, Macron, Stammer, Mertz, Tusk, and Zelensky, they made sure to make it known that they were coordinating with Trump. Obviously, they called him. Obviously, they called him, right? There is absolutely no doubt whatsoever that Trump had decided to decide. with the Ukrainians, with the Europeans about this. But he went along with Kellogg that he did all of this.

My senses that though he did this, he still has some lack of enthusiasm and conviction about it. He still has some doubts in his own mind about this. But the fact is, had he not told them in advance before they went to Kiev, that this is what he was going to do. They probably wouldn't have gone to Kiev. We wouldn't have all the announcements that happened when they were in Kiev. There certainly wouldn't have been the true social post.

And there wouldn't have been all those articles that appeared in Reuters and in the Financial Times. It was clearly agreed and arranged in advance. About that, about that there is no doubt. So here's my question. Absolutely. Yeah. Okay, right. Right.

So here's my question to you, given this. And there's one more piece of information, by the way, which I think is important, which is before Putin's statement, the New York Times put out an article, which said that, and I have no reason to doubt this, that the Trump administration green lit the transfer from German, U.S. weapons, but in Germany of, I believe, a, I believe, 100 missiles. I'm not sure what type of missiles. I don't think the article is specified. Patriot missile interceptors, yeah. There's the Patriots and they also and they also said artillery missiles. Absolutely, absolutely, which is probably high-mars missiles. You could be attack him's missiles as well. So the New York Times put out that article way before Putin's statement. Yes. But obviously coordinated to come out at the same time that you have all of this activity. Yes. in Kiev. So my question to you is, is what, what happened? What changed? On Saturday, it was clear that

that Trump was aligned with Europe and Zelensky. And I guess that they thought they were going to put this pressure on Russia. They were going to have these, these photographs of the leaders in Kiev to show that they're unified. It was very much a publicity stunt more than anything else. They're unified. They're demanding an ultimatum. The media ran with their articles. And from the Trump White House side of things, the military side of things, they're now transferring weapons to Ukraine. So this picture is painted that the collective West is unified, weapons transfers, ultimatum, demanded Russia,

what are you going to do? And then Putin gives his statement. I mean, and then Trump seems to walk it back. What are your thoughts? What changed with the Trump administration? And do you think that the Putin statement is really something that that's going to stick? Do you think that Trump is going to accept what I see as an off-ramp from Putin? I really think that Putin is giving Trump a final off-ramp out of Project Ukraine.

And then I'll get to Zelensky going to Istanbul. That is exactly what Putin is. doing and Trump, or at least part of Trump, wants to take it, which is why he says to Zelensky he must go, or rather the Ukrainians, they must go to Istanbul on Thursday, and why he's starting to have doubts that the Ukrainians, that Zelensky himself really wants peace. This is, this, we go back to the very first of the sequence of Trump's true social posts, the one that was the ultimatum. You know, it was not written in the language of ultimatums.

Its substance was an ultimatum. But the tone, as I said, was, it lacked conviction ultimately. It spoke of, you know, ideally a 30-day ceased fire. Hopefully, you know, the ceasefire. will be agreed. It used these kind of sort of qualifying words. And I just don't think that a side of Trump really wants to go here. He's definitely getting alternative advice from other people. J.D. Vance, his vice president, has previously said, look, let's forget about this whole ceasefire idea. let's get the direct negotiations between the Russians and the Ukrainians underway.

J.D. Vance consistently and publicly, the most hostile to Zelensky and the most realistic, in my opinion, of all the officials within the US government. But Trump goes with Kellogg. But Trump goes with Kellogg, and that's the trouble. I mean, so he's got Vance, he's probably got Witgolf. They're saying one thing to him. Kellogg, Rubio, the rest of the bureaucracy, the people in Europe, all of that, they're all pushing him to take the other line. And I think that at some level, Trump gave this ultimatum, went along with this ultimatum.

he probably at some level either hoped or was told that the Russians would cave. I suspect there was some element of this. I mean, you know, because they can't accept all these terrible sanctions. They're going to be scared by all these new weapons. The photos of the European leaders in Kiev will terrify Putin. Exactly. Terrify Putin and all of that. So, I mean, he was probably, you know, told all of this.

show that you're strong, show Putin how strong you are, and he will cave. And you'll then be the great peacemaker and the man who brought peace to Ukraine and all of that. So he goes with all of this. What then happens is that Putin both calls his bluff. I'm not saying it was exactly a bluff because I'm not saying that he wasn't going to go ahead with these sanctions. Putin called it. Putin called it. And at the same time, gave him an off-ram.

So that's basically what happened. I'm not saying, though, that he has definitively broken with Kellogg, Zelensky, the Europeans, and all those people. I'm sorry to say this. my sense is that over time, more likely than not, they'll bring him back on board. I think that's realistically where we are at the moment. But nonetheless, it was interesting to see how this whole thing played out. And it does open up questions about what will happen in a few months' time. So let's assume that we're going to get the sanctions.

The sanctions are not going to break Russia economically. We've talked about this many times, in many places. There's no point in repeating ourselves. The further arms deliveries are not going to change the military situation on the ground. Apparently, and this is what's so extraordinary about this, there is an intelligence assessment, a US intelligence assessment, which has its origins in the Biden era. So this is before Tulsi-Cathard and Radcliffe took over, which said that there are no weapons that the United States can supply to Ukraine that are going to change the dynamics of the military situation. So the Russians will see off the sanctions. The Chinese will not support the sanctions. The United States is not

realistically going to impose secondary sanctions on China or do any of that kind of thing. Not in any serious way. The Chinese Xi Jinping was in Moscow. Clearly a strong relationship there. I get the sense that the same is true with India as well. So the sanctions are not going to work. The military thing isn't going to work. Trump is going along with Kellogg, Rubio, the hardliners, the Europeans.

what happens in three, four, five months' time, when the military situation has got much worse for Ukraine, when the sanctions have visibly not succeeded, there is going to be an almighty battle at that point because the hardliners will come back and they will demand even further escalation from Trump. He doesn't want to go down the road of escalation. at the same time, his relationship, such as it is with Putin, will have been badly damaged, and does he at that point finally go with Whitgolf and fans? I don't know. I mean, we'll just have to wait and see.

Will that option even be available to him in three to five months? I mean, you know, he also has the Biden drawdown is coming to an end. Absolutely. All of those weapons. So he's going to have to make a decision if he goes to Congress and asks for another 20, 30, 40 billion, whatever. I mean, how's that going to look? And the Maga base is not happy. Marjorie Taylor Green actually said, which she talked about the minerals deal. She said, you know, what is this? Why are we recommitting

to Ukraine? Why are we talking about this? And she said, I am, you know, I represent the Maga base. I think she's right, by the way. I get every sense that that is true. The people at the the Federalists talking the same way. So he's got, he finds himself in a very, very difficult position because as you correctly said, he still listens to Kellogg and he works and acts on his advice. He's wanted, he thought a freeze could be obtained quickly. He thought he could move on from a freeze. He's not really interested. what happens in Ukraine, probably not very interested ultimately, even in Russia, if I have to say it truthfully. But he's discovered that the Russians are not up for a freeze. And the result is

he's now in a very difficult position as far as he's concerned, trying to make decisions does he go with? Kellogg, Lindsay Graham, who is also, you know, a significant force, Starma, Macron, and all that bunch? Or does he go with Vance and Wick Goff and Marjorie Taylor Green and people like that? So you're quite right. He's playing for time. He's looking for off ramps. He's seizing on off ramps.

But in the meantime, time is slipping away. And in five months, military situation may be completely different. economic situation may be completely different. Whatever leverage he may have at the moment, he'll have even less than. It may be that at that point the situation is completely irretrievable, and he could find himself in a situation where whatever he proposes, the Russians will ignore. No, I think this should be Russia's final off-ramp to him. You know, tell Ukraine to send a delegation to Istanbul.

so that we can have direct talks without preconditions. Or else, or else we're just going to continue to get four regions, as Aristovic said, four regions, become six regions, become eight regions. That's what Arasovic said. So, I mean, I think that's what Putin is presenting to Trump. And if Trump continues to listen to people like Kellogg, then when this defeat is final, It will be his. It will be his.

And all the people that have been advising him, including Kellogg, Lindsey Graham, the Europeans, everyone knows what they're going to say. It's your fault, Trump. You didn't give them enough. You didn't give them Tomahawks. You didn't give them a million, High Mars. You didn't give them a million of tack-ums. You didn't put U.S. boots on the ground.

You didn't give Zelensky a trillion dollars. That's exactly what they are going to say. And they're going to turn on him. And then they're going to open up if the Democrats win in the military. midterms, then they're going to open up Russia gate 4.0 or 5.0 or 10.0. And that's it. That's it for his presidency. That's it for his legacy. It's all going to be shot to pieces. If you want to comment on this and then I want to ask you about Zelensky, actually, I'll just ask you about Zelensky. And you can wrap up the video. So comment on what I said and Zelensky.

Going to Turkey. A stunt? Is it a stunt? He's saying he's going to go, Alexander. Axios is saying he's going to go, even if Putin doesn't show up, he's going to go. Even if Russia doesn't agree to the ceasefire, which Russia, the demand is that Russia agree to the ceasefire today or else. So even if Russia does not agree to the 30-day ceasefire, Zelensky said, I'm going to show up, me, Zelensky, I'm going to show up in Turkey, and I'm going to wait for Putin. There are reports saying that this is a stunt, that Yarmak came up with this stunt, and the play is that when Russia does send a delegation, Zelensky will be in Turkey, and he's going to going to say, I don't want to speak to the delegation. I'm here to meet with Putin and only Putin.

You see, Russia is not serious for peace. I'm serious for peace because I showed up as Zelensky, the great leader, Churchill number two. Here I am in Istanbul and I'm waiting for Vladimir Putin, but Putin is due chicken to show up and meet with me. That is the plan that Yademak has hatched. By the way, I thought it was banned in Ukraine to negotiate with Putin, actually. So I don't know how they're going to square that circle, but I'm sure they'll spin it somewhere. Anyway, so your thoughts to wrap up the video. One more key point is, I think, which is interesting that no one has mentioned, after Putin gave a speech immediately, Ushikov, immediately that night, Ushikov said that he is putting

together a delegation to go to Istanbul. So I think that's very important that Uchukov specifically said a delegation, because that's how negotiations are done. The leaders come in afterwards to sign the documents. The preparation happens with negotiating teams. And I think that Russia anticipated Zelensky's play. And that's why Uschikov at 3 o'clock in the morning made sure to say we are putting together a negotiating team to go to Istanbul so that they can talk about, so that we can talk with Ukraine if they send their negotiating team about coming to a piece. Then the leaders come after.

Anyway, do you remember everything that I? Absolutely, absolutely. Let's wrap up the video. Zelensky's thing is a pure stunt. it is completely not serious. I mean, what is it that is being suggested here that Zelensky and Putin sit together, have tea with each other,

and then agree everything between them? I mean, it's absurd. Of course not. That is a nonsensical idea. I mean, it would make no sense at all to conduct negotiations in that way. If Zelensky wants to go to Istanbul and meet with the Russians there,

and brings a negotiating team and decides to enter into serious negotiations. I say this because he suggested at one point that, you know, nobody else in Ukraine can conduct negotiations under his decree, but he can. I don't, doesn't read like that to me at all, but he did publish this decree banning negotiations with the Russians. But he says that he personally is exempt from the effect of this decree. But if he wants to meet with the Russians and negotiate with them all by himself, that's fine.

I'm sure that Russians will not refuse to see him. But to expect at this point in time, a summit meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy and to expect serious outcomes of that summit meeting is an absurd. The Russians are putting together, as you rightly said, a negotiating team. They're going to appoint an experienced diplomat, presumably, to head the negotiator. The logical and correct thing to do is to appoint a negotiating team to meet them. What Zelensky is proposing is a PR stunt, the same kind of PR stunts that he's always pulling off, and which people in the West take seriously.

But nobody outside the West does. That's an important thing to say nobody around the world is going to take this move, of Zelensky seriously, you know, people in the media might, in the West, people in some, you know, Zelensky's fan club in Congress or in London, Paris might, you know, talk it up and say this is the heroic, wonderful Churchill for Trump. Well, who knows? Maybe. That's the Bain question. That's the main. Well, maybe. Will Trump take it seriously? Maybe, maybe. He might take it seriously. He might say, well, Zelensky's going, so Trump should go, oh, Putin should go, rather. But, I mean, you know, in that case, we're not in the world of serious diplomacy anymore.

We're in the world of cartoon style diplomacy. I mean, it's no longer a serious negotiation. I mean, these negotiations altogether over the last couple of months to the extent that they've even happened have been conducted in a very unconventional way. I think this is too wild for this moment. I mean, the issues are just too serious. frankly, for them to be conducted in this kind of manner. The Russians are putting together a negotiating team. They're appointing a chief negotiator. What Zelensky needs to do is what should do

in any rational world is cancel his decree, appoint his own negotiators, appoint his own chief negotiator, and send them to meet the Russians in Istanbul. That is the obvious, correct, logical thing to do. Now, let's turn to the other side because you were talking about the fact that this is probably the Russian's last and final offer. Now, there was one word that Putin used over the course of his statement, which I haven't noticed a single person, homero. He actually used the word war. he actually specifically referred to what is happening at the present time as a war, Vinaa, not a special military operation. He has never done that.

And that's why it's so important to stress that he was reading from notes. These were carefully prepared. It was not a slip. It was clearly carefully. calibrated, carefully chosen word. Now, within Russia, as we discovered, a special military operation has a specific legal meaning which makes it less than a full-scale war. Putin is now using the word war. That may suggest that if the Ukrainians don't take this offer, if the Russians are indeed presented with further ultimatums and things of that kind,

then they're now looking to revisit the question of whether this can continue to be a special military operation. They may very well say, we gave the Ukrainians a further chance to negotiate. They're not clearly more interested in negotiating. Zelensky is an impossible individual. We should treat this maybe not as an all-out war. but as something significantly more serious than what it has been up to now. And we should be absolutely straightforward at this point, that the objective is the change of the political system in Ukraine,

in other words, regime change in Kiev. As I say, I don't think Putin has used the word war to describe the conflict in Ukraine previously. I think the first time he's used that word, and as I said, it was carefully chosen, was in that statement that he made to the press a few hours after the ultimatum was given. And we got all these reports and rumors

that the Russians are trundling out, Rereshnik missiles to Kaputzinyar and all of that. I don't know that is true. I doubt they can launch any irreshton, before Thursday when the Ukrainians are supposed to turn up. But clearly, that's to my mind where the situation is heading. We've got the two reserve armies that have been built up. We've got the Arashniks there.

Putin is now talking about war. If this offer for negotiations is not accepted, we could be looking at a very, very serious hardening of the Russian position, both on the ground and diplomatic. And then what Aristovic was talking about, you lose six, four, you know, six, eight regions. Well, we may be looking at even more than that, potentially. Now, your last point that if this all falls apart, if we do get a fall of Kiev moment, they will all turn on Trump.

You are absolutely right. You are completely correct about this. And moreover, and this is what Trump perhaps doesn't understand, if they turn on Trump, he may not get the support from his MAGA base that he could have counted on previously. Because people like Marjorie Taylor Green, the people at the Federalist, all of the others will be turning to Trump. Trump and they will say, look, you brought this on yourself. You didn't do what you led us all to think that you would do. You didn't distance yourself from Ukraine. You didn't take us out of the conflict in Ukraine. You went along with people like Kellogg and Rubio and all that crowd. And now, as was entirely predictable, they've turned to you. on you. So why do you expect us to support you now? This is exactly the situation that we talked about in the summer of last year. Well, we said that if Trump got himself involved in the negotiations, if he started to try and look for actual solutions to this conflict, got bogged down in negotiations,

The Nia cons and the Europeans would inevitably deflect him and lead him astray and get him tied down and it would end up badly for him. And why, for his own sake and for the future of his presidency, it was essential that he walked away. He didn't do that. He went the opposite direction and we see exactly where he now is. He senses this, by the way. That's why, as I said, he's dithering about going ahead with the ultimatum and imposing the sanctions and doing all of those kinds of things. But it's probably too late now to pull back and to change stance because I suspect that he's so far in now,

backing Zelensky and going along with the Europeans and accepting Kellogg, that it's going to be very, very difficult for him to completely pull back and reverse course. Yeah, just a final thought. Yeah, Robert Barnes and Viva, they also said to Trump yesterday, they were like, stop listening to guys like Kellogg. I mean, it's crystal clear. Listen to Vance. Listen to Whitkoff. Stop listening to guys like Kellogg.

He's leading you down the wrong path. But you're right, Alexander, for some reason, he just can't let it go. He can't let it go. Any your thoughts on that, and we're ending this video. but another quick question. Any chance that Putin himself actually shows up on Thursday? Well, we can't exclude it because Putin is an ex... If nothing else, Putin is unpredictable himself.

I mean, in some ways, he's a very systematic, very well-organized, careful political leader. But so it's possible that he will do that. But I don't myself expect it because... turning up in Istanbul for a brief meeting with Zelensky, the only objective of which, the only purpose of which would be presumably to try to get Zelensky to agree to negotiations, which Zelensky is going to do in any serious way. It seems to me is entering into the cartoon world which Zelensky and his supporters basically live in. I don't get the sense. None of the feelings that I have is that the Russians are really thinking in those terms. I mean, the message

that they're conveying, the message that Putin conveyed over the course of his statement of the press is that we are serious people. The other side is not. This is their chance to be serious like us and to make a serious effort to end the war. I think there's a risk to put it, you know, mildly that if Putin now does turn up in Istanbul and does meet Zelensky, assuming Zelensky is even going, by the way, which is assuming. But I mean, there's a risk, as I said, that you will smudge that message. And as I said, And as I said, it will look like you're becoming a cartoon character in the same way that Zelensky himself is. So I mean, you can't discount the possibility completely, but I think it very unlikely.

All right. We will end the video there. The durand.com. We are on Rumble Odyssey, Bitree, Telegram, X and all kinds of other platforms. Go to the Duran Shop, pick up some merch. The link is in description box down below. Take care.