The Duran Podcast - Putin & King of Bahrain; Ready to mediate in Middle East

Episode Date: May 29, 2024

Putin & King of Bahrain; Ready to mediate in Middle East

All right, Alexander, let's talk about the recent meeting between Russian President Putin and the king of Bahrain. Let's talk about what they talked about what they discussed. Let's also talk about what is happening in Saudi Arabia. Actually, I think MBS accepted an invitation to go to Iran as well. That happened a couple of days ago. And we can also touch on the ISIS. ICJ statement with regards to Rafa for Israel to stop its operations into Rafa, which has led, predictably, has led to the U.S. and the UK, basically giving Israel the green light to escalate into Rafa. I think that was very predictable after the ICJ statement. escalation. Okay. Now, we could talk about that as well. Anyway, let's begin with Putin and the king of

Bahrain. Yeah, I mean, this is a story that has not attracted the attention that it deserves. There's been a meeting of the Arab League. The Arab League is, of course, the umbrella body that brings together the Arab states. It is perennially divided. It always has been throughout the time that I've known. Various times it's been dominated by different parties. In the 60s it was dominated by Nassas. Egypt. More recently it's been dominated by the Gulf states. Anyway, it has come up with a plan upon which this time it is fully united for an international peace conference to settle the Arab-Israeli dispute. Now this is an idea that was first floated by the Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi some months ago. But the Arab states have picked it up and are now running with it and that they're elaborating it.

And it seems as if they are now looking to put together this peace conference. And the king of Bahrain is going to the big international. national stakeholders to the great powers in other words, seeking to rally support for this peace conference. And importantly, the first country he visited, as he himself pointed out, and doing so, by the way, with the support of the entire Arab League, was Russia. And he went to Moscow, and he had an extremely friendly meeting with Putin in the Kremlin. I mean, you know, the two were extremely friendly with each other. The king talked about how he missed coming to Moscow and what a beautiful city it is,

and how happy he was to be in Russia, and how happy he was to meet his dear friend, Vladimir Putin. And Putin was similarly effusive towards the king of Bahrain. Now we must assume that the king will now go to other places, probably China, probably India at some point. But the key thing to say is that he has been historically a key ally of the West and of the United States. Bahrain has been one of the most loyal Western and American allies in the Middle East. And he's chosen to go to Russia first with this idea of an international peace conference. And of course, it's not difficult to figure out why, because the United States does not want an international peace conference to mediate the problems of the Middle East. The United States has monopolized diplomacy on the Arab-Israeli issue ever since the Middle East.

1970s. And what this peace conference is intended to do is break that monopoly and in effect sideline the United States in Middle East diplomacy. In other words, what has happened, and remember the entire Arab League is united behind it is that there is now an agenda in the Middle East, supported by all the big Arab states, to try and move forward settling the problems of the region without the United States being center stage. They are, in effect, collectively distancing themselves from the United States. And this is where MBS's prospective trip to Iran comes from and of course the Saudis also long-standing historic allies of the united states they don't want to break with the united states completely the stringing them along on um peace terms in diplomatic

mutual diplomatic recognition with um israel and of course what they're doing along the way is that they're getting more and more concessions from the americans so the so the Saudis want offensive weapons, bombs, fighter jets, those kind of things. The United States is going to supply them. The United States is going to supply them with nuclear technologies, all kinds of things. And you could see again, it's the typical game that is so well understood at the Middle East. You string the other side along. You say, well, you know, we're happy to do what you want.

We're prepared to enter into these negotiations. with Israelis. But, you know, in the meantime, in order to move that forward, you've got to give us this. And then when that happens, well, you've also got to give us that. And then a little bit more. But the Saudis, along with the others, clearly have come to a decision that the United States cannot resolve the central issue, which is the crisis between the Arabs and the Israelis, the Palestinians and the Israelis, and they're backing this peace conference, and they're going to the parties.

They see as being central to that process, which is the Russians, the other BRIC states, and, well, probably the Islamic conference too. Well, it's obvious that the Biden White House has no idea or plan how to solve the problems in the Middle East, especially what's happening now in Gaza. and I mean we're seeing that play out with with everything that's going on in Rafa. We're seeing that play out with the ICJ directive for Israel to cease its operations in Rafa

and the escalation that has followed after that directive was ordered. The Biden White House has a very confused policy. Maybe it's not so confused. Maybe they make it look like it's confused when it comes. comes to the Middle East and everything that's happening in Gaza. But if any country can solve or can mediate what's happening in the Middle East, then I would say, yeah, Russia and China are too good possibilities. Absolutely.

I mean, the thing is what the Biden administration is doing is it's conducting foreign policy in the Middle East as if this was still 1995, so. they don't seem to be aware of the extent to which the situation has changed, the global situation has changed, and of the extent to which America's own position in the Middle East has eroded. They don't seem to get this. And so they continue to do what used to work in the past, try to deal bilaterally with Arab states, Saudi Arabia,

specifically, making assumptions about Saudi hostility to Iran, and thinking that for the Saudis that still remains the big issue, even though it clearly doesn't, and not really doing anything that fundamentally addresses the cause of the problem, which is the crisis between the Palestinians and the Israelis, which is the central issue, and which has now been brought of the fore by the events in Gaza. And we see this again in the reactions to the two court decisions, the ICC warrants of a week ago. The latest ICJ order, which of course has been brought in the genocide case that South Africa, now joined by various other countries, has made against Israel.

Now, there's been a lot of misrepresentation of this order. What this order is is a second update of the order, the restraining order, that the ICJ addressed to Israel in January. And when you read the ICJ decision closely, you can see that its decisions are getting harder and harder towards Israel. as they realize that the Israelis are paying no attention to the orders which are being made. And this order, this latest order, is of that sort. And what it shows us is that step by step, we are coming closer to an ICJ judgment, a full outright judgment against Israel. that it is in some way in violation of the genocide convention.

And that that is going to happen much sooner now than look likely at the start of this process when people were talking about a legal dispute that could last 10 years. Because the way in which this case is being defended by Israel and by its Western allies is again defiant and unauthorized. dogs. Now, once more, the people who are ultimately to blame for this, in my opinion, is the Biden team and their allies in Europe, because once again, they don't understand that this whole process is starting to get out of their control because they don't ultimately believe that

it can. And of course, if there is a final judgment against Israel, that will be another disaster, you know, presentational disaster, coming on top of all of the others. And it's part actually of a wider story, which is the one that we discussed with the Arab League meeting and this push for an international peace conference.

The wider story of the US losing its positions in the Middle East, and becoming marginalized as the decisions, the key decisions in the Middle East, are going to start to be made by other people. They were praising the ICC with Putin. Boy, were they happy with Putin. I get how everything has boomerang back at them. Yeah, I mean, they should have never, they should have never gone hard against,

they should have never gone hard against Russia and Putin. Well, because I wonder if back then if they said, I just wonder, a question to you, I wonder if back then if they said, you know, the ICC going after Russia and Putin, just forget about it. I wonder if they would have had a different outcome today. Of course, it would have had a completely different outcome today, because the grounds whereby the ICC has got round the jurisdiction issue, Israel is not a signatory to the Rome statute. It's exactly the same grounds that we use to justify the ICC issuing a warrant against Putin. which Russia, of course, also is not, has never ratified the Rome Convention.

So, I mean, this was, I mean, in effect, they created a precedent for themselves, which has backfied on them. And by the way, again, bad precedents create bad outcomes. The ICC, they got the ICJ, rather, I'm sorry, the ICJ way back in the mid-2000s, to give the advisory opinion on Kosovo to justify the recognition of Kosovo's independence. That is now being

cited by the Russians continuously in connection with events in Crimea, in Dombas, wherever you like. And now, again, in the current ICJ proceedings,

I get the sense that the Western powers have gone to sleep. They don't understand, I think, that these proceedings are serious. And yes, the ICJ has no enforcement powers. It can't do anything by itself. But if it finds against Israel on a question like this, presentationally around the world, that will be a disaster. and proceedings at the ICJ, which generally happen at glacial speed, are now moving forward very fast, because they're not being defended properly.

I mean, again, I don't understand why these mistakes on the part of Western governments continuously get made. They don't know how to conduct diplomacy. They don't seem to know how to defend a case properly into an international court either. Now, I say that, I don't want to give the impression that I want this case to go on forever.

On the contrary, I want the decision as soon as possible. But what I am saying, I'm being devil's advocate, if you like, A really competent legal team could have slowed this down an awful lot. That attempt isn't even being made. All right. We will end it there. The durand.com.

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